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Prabowo's coalition is now gunning for regions, MPR
Jakarta Globe - October 3, 2014
None within the four-party coalition that supported Joko snared a seat on the House leadership committee – all of which went to the six-party Red-and-White coalition, led by losing presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, and which also controls 353 of the House's 560 seats, or 63 percent.
Many blame Joko's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) for failing to expand its coalition by convincing Red-and-White members to switch sides – crucial to tipping the House's balance of power.
Several Red-and-White coalition parties expressed interest in joining the Joko-led coalition, including the Democratic Party and the United Development Party (PPP). Meanwhile, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Golkar – also Red-and-White members – have elements that have shown support for Joko.
But politicians that profess to be on the fence say Joko's coalition is in disarray, and the president-elect has failed to offer the right inducement. "[They] have no single commander," PPP secretary general Muhammad Romahurmuziy said, when asked about the party's reluctance to switch sides.
"It is not clear who gets what. And [Joko] has not offered any political incentive." Romahurmuziy said Joko's coalition has been too slow in getting his party on board, unlike President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who in 2004 and 2009 was very active and had the final say on ensuring PPP had a place in his cabinet.
Who's in charge?
Anonymous sources in the Democratic Party similarly said that although Joko met several times chairman Yudhoyono to discuss his party's inclusion in the cabinet, the talks failed.
"As it turns out, Jokowi is not the one calling the shots," a source inside the Democrats say referring to Joko by his popular name. Yudhoyono later demanded to see PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri and hear the proposal directly from her.
"I have wanted to see her for so long, since 10 years ago. I have also sought to see her in the past few months, and also recently after a relatively harsh political conflict," Yudhoyono said on Wednesday, referring to the recent passage of the so-called regional elections bill, which abolishes direct election of governors, mayors and district heads.
Relations between the two soured after the Yudhoyono abruptly quit Megawati's cabinet in 2004 and ran for president – having previously promised he would not do so – and defeated the incumbent.
But PDI-P politician Aria Bima offered a different story, saying that it was Yudhoyono who had been avoiding Megawati. "SBY wanted a meeting and Megawati agreed. But when we called SBY's phone is out of reach. We tried until morning," he said, referring to Yudhoyono by his initials.
Analysts believe that an opportunity for parties to switch may open when Golkar, the biggest party in the Red-and-White coalition, holds a convention to elect a new chairman. Golkar is currently chaired by tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, who Prabowo reportedly promised would be his "main minister" if elected.
Days away from his Oct. 20 inauguration, Joko has not announced a cabinet, suggesting he is buying time as his party lobbies Red-and-White coalition members.
Seizing the upper hand
Analysts warn, however, that Red-and-White may now have the upper hand after seizing the House.
"To get Red-and-White coalition members on board, Jokowi would have to pay a very steep price," Indonesia Public Institute director Karyono Wibowo said. That price may entail giving Red-and-White members even more seats on Joko's cabinet.
On Thursday the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), a Red-and-White partner, said the bloc sought to chair the 130-member Regional Representatives Council (DPD), which combined with the House, make up the MPR.
"We have to consolidate the Regional Representatives Council... [where] there are a lot of Red-and-White supporters. We've counted at least 60 DPD members as Red-and-White supporters," PKS House faction chair Hidayat Nur Wahid said.
Controlling the DPD would put Joko's fate entirely in the Red-and-White coalition's hands, which could start impeachment proceedings, render him ineligible to stand for re-election, or cripple his administration's programs and policies.
The Red-and-White coalition earlier stated its ambition to discontinue presidential elections and instead appoint the president through the MPR. This move would require an amendment to the Constitution – a power reserved by the MPR, along with impeachment authority.
But the Red-and-White coalition failed to secure one of its own as DPD chair, whose members chose non-partisan incumbent Irman Gusman.
In the early hours of Thursday, the six-party Red-and-White coalition managed to appoint its supporters to House leadership posts. Golkar's Setya Novanto was appointed as the House speaker. His deputies are Fadli Zon from Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), Agus Hermanto from the Democratic Party, Taufik Kurniawan from PAN and Fahri Hamzah of PKS. Joko's four-party coalition did not secure a single leadership post.
Joko said he is unfazed by the prospect of the opposition's control of the House in Jakarta, as well as 31 provincial legislatures across Indonesia. He dismissed fears of impeachment or political roadblocks.
"I ask people to stop worrying. The House and the government are partners," he said. "I have faced this many times. In Solo, in Jakarta, you know how many seats we have? Eleven percent. But as you can see... Does it mean anything? No."
Gajah Mada University's Zainal Arifin Mochtar said Joko should balance outreach against the need to streamline his coalition, pointing to Yudhoyono's mistake of having six parties in his own coalition.
Source: http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/news/prabowos-coalition-now-gunning-regions-mpr/.
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