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Specter of compromise hangs over Jokowi
Jakarta Globe - October 1, 2014
Joko's political vehicle, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, reiterated that it was open for other parties to join the coalition.
"You cannot build a nation by yourself," senior PDI-P politician Pramono Anung said. He added the party would intensify communications with members of the six-party Red-and-White coalition, or KMP, which supported losing presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.
Analysts have expressed concern that the KMP, which was behind the passage of two controversial laws, is aiming to ensure that Joko is either impeached, unable to be re-elected or have his agenda and policies blocked or rendered useless.
The incoming House of Representatives, set to be inaugurated today, will see the KMP take control of 353 of the 560 House seats, against 207 seats to be held by the parties backing Joko Widodo.
The Constitutional Court on Monday ruled that the law on legislatures, also known as the MD3 Law, was not unconstitutional, clearing the way for the KMP to take control of key positions in the House.
Under the new law, the speaker's post will be put to a vote if there is no consensus on whom to appoint. The same mechanism also applies to other key positions in the House: heads of commissions, the Budget Committee (Banggar), the Legislative Body, the Households Affairs Committee (BURT), the inter-parliamentary body BKSAP and the Ethics Council.
The PDI-P had objected to the law because it scrapped the system that greatly benefited the largest party in the House, which used to be granted the speaker's post. The new system favors the largest alliance of parties in the House, which will be the Red-and-White coalition.
The coalition has reportedly agreed that Golkar will get the House speaker's post, while Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) will receive the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) speaker post, with other parties to divide other key positions.
Trimedya Panjaitan, the PDI-P House chairman, said his party is aiming to change this composition.
"We shall see. Politics are dynamic, particularly once new legislators are installed. They are fresh and may not share the same political agendas [as their predecessors]," he was quoted as saying on Tuesday. "It is possible that there will be a new political alliance after October 1" when the new House members are sworn in.
A bigger coalition
Andreas Hugo Pareira, a member of the PDI-P's central leadership board, said the plan to build a bigger coalition with some KMP members had been around ever since Joko was named the winner of the July 9 presidential election. "Early on, we understood that we needed to approach and communicate with the other parties," he said.
The move could tip the balance inside the House to the PDI-P's favor in its bid to fill the legislative speaker post with one of its own.
Yunarto Wijaya, the director of Charta Politika, a think tank, said one KMP party which would almost certainly switch sides was the Golkar Party. Joko's choice of former Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla as his running mate will prevent Golkar from ever fully uniting behind KMP policies, the analyst said.
Golkar, the biggest party by far in the KMP, is already riven over chairman Aburizal Bakrie's failure to ensure that the party, which has never been out of the ruling bloc, backed the winning side in this year's election.
The Democrats, under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, have also been blatantly hedging their bets in a ploy for cabinet seats. Additionally, the United Development Party, or PPP, appears increasingly likely to break from the KMP in favor of Joko's coalition. Yunarto agreed on the likelihood of some KMP parties switching sides.
"The PPP is going to hold a congress, Golkar is preparing to hold a national meeting – even the Democrats may change their position," he said. "Will the Red-and-White coalition become more powerful? I don't think so. I think that when Joko [is inaugurated], things will change."
Political deals?
Eko Putro Sandjojo, the House chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB), one of Joko's coalition partners, indicated that Joko might make political compromises to lure KMP members over to their side.
"In politics there are no permanent enemies or friends, only permanent interests. So there must be common interests to lure [KMP parties]," he said.
Leo Agustino, a political observer from Banten's Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University, said Joko's only option was to offer KMP members seats in his cabinet. "That includes ministries and non-ministerial government bodies. That is the most feasible bargaining tool available," Leo said.
Hamdi Muluk, a political communications expert at the University of Indonesia, said Joko should balance his cabinet between making political compromises and finding the most competent people to fill key positions,
"[Joko] has to be smart in making his next move," Hamdi said. "If he opens the door too wide, his people [in the PDI-P] will get angry, but if he totally closes the door to another coalition partner, he'll continue to be attacked.
However, Ari Dwipayana, a political observer at Gadjah Mada University (UGM) in Yogyakarta, said that Joko should forgo any political compromises with the Red-and-White coalition. "Joko should remain consistent with his commitment to building an unconditional coalition," he said.
Ari added that sharing power with parties outside of his four-member coalition – comprising the PDI-P, the PKB, the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and the National Democrat Party (NasDem) – "won't guarantee him absolute power in the House."
Siti Zuhro, a senior political analyst at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), also said Joko should not stoop to making unsavory political compromises.
She said he needed to remain confident about the popular grassroots support that swept him to power, despite risking the stability of that power. Joko "was directly elected by the people. So it wouldn't be that easy [for the KMP] to overthrow [Joko]," Siti said.
UGM's Ari agreed, saying Joko had the Constitutional right and people's mandate to be president. "He mustn't surrender when dealing with the House. Yes, there will be conflict, but he must face that. Don't repeat Yudhoyono's mistakes in choosing to compromise with politicians," Ari said, referring to Yudhoyono's six-party coalition that dominated the House but fell out frequently over key policies.
Source: http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/news/specter-compromise-hangs-jokowi/.
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