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Local elections ploy seen as a setup for presidential vote
Jakarta Globe - September 30, 2014
Analysts have expressed concern that the Red-and-White coalition of losing presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, which voted overwhelmingly in favor of the bill abolishing direct regional elections, is aiming for control of more than just the country's provinces, districts and cities.
"The end goal of the Red-and-White coalition is not only [control over] regional elections but also the presidential election," said Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, a political expert at the Indonesia Institute of Sciences, or LIPI.
The incoming House of Representatives, set to be inaugurated this week, will see the Red-and-White coalition, also known as the KMP, take control of 353 of the 560 House seats, against 207 seats to be held by the parties backing President-elect Joko Widodo.
With a majority in the House, the KMP can easily amend the 2008 Presidential Election Law and the Constitution to allow the People's Consultative Assembly, or MPR, of which the House forms the bulk, to appoint the president, as it did during the late Suharto's 32-year dictatorship, Ikrar said.
"Prabowo and the KMP leaders realize they can't win a direct election. But if the president is chosen by the MPR, there's a chance that Prabowo might win," he said.
Aleksius Jemadu, the dean of the School of Social and Political Studies at Pelita Harapan University, said separately that such a scenario was feasible.
"If the Red-and-White coalition can't contain their ambition and they see the opportunity, it's not impossible that they will move in that direction," he said. "The coalition's confidence is at a high after they managed to pass the local elections bill, so they're confident that they can make the change."
Others pointed to the KMP's success in passing the law on legislative bodies, known as the MD3 law, a day before the July 9 election, with key changes that deprive Joko's party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, from privileges previously enjoyed by the party that wins the most votes in the legislative election.
This includes the right to the House speaker's post, which will now be decided in a vote that will almost certainly be won by the KMP. A source in the coalition says the KMP leaders have agreed to put forward veteran Golkar Party politician Setya Novanto for the speaker's post.
A bid by the PDI-P to have the changes to the MD3 law struck down was rejected on Monday by the Constitutional Court.
Power up
Control of the House translates into control of the MPR, which is made up of the House and the 136-seat Regional Representatives Council, or DPD – whose members ostensibly have no party affiliations but in reality have strong party links.
The MPR is the only body in the country with the power to amend the Constitution and to impeach the president.
Senior officials from the KMP have made no secret of their dislike for presidential elections, with Prabowo himself saying before last July's ballot that he did not believe direct elections were compatible with Indonesia's style of democracy.
Herman Kadir, a deputy secretary general of the National Mandate Party, or PAN, whose chairman, Hatta Rajasa, was Prabowo's running mate, was quoted by Tempo.co on Sunday as saying that direct presidential elections "should be scrapped."
He argued that the concept was "a product of the West" and had given rise to hostilities among Indonesians. "If need be, the president should again be selected through the MPR," he said.
The Democratic Party, which is also a member of the KMP even if its chairman, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, claims otherwise, confirmed that the coalition planned to take over the presidency by scrapping direct presidential elections.
"The door for the president to be appointed by the MPR is wide open following the passage of the regional elections law," said Hayono Isman, a senior Democrat. "The KMP will have power over everything: the House, the regional legislatures, as well as regional leaders."
Serious impact
Setara's Ismail said the idea of returning to the system of presidential appointment by the MPR was not based on the people's best interest but instead "driven by the KMP's political lust for power."
He noted that all the laws that the KMP had endorsed were "typical of the New Order regime where political elites control the entire political process."
If the regional elections law stands, the KMP will have control of 31 of 33 provincial legislatures, with the PDI-P enjoying a majority in only the Bali and West Kalimantan legislatures.
Analysts believe that regional councilors in these 31 provinces could appoint governors opposed to Joko, rendering the incoming president's key programs and policies useless.
"This will have a serious impact on Joko's leadership," said political expert Gun Gun Heryanto. "Joko will face serious opposition as now he's facing a group of parties that have a long-term agenda. The coalition may tackle Joko's good programs through policy making."
But whether the KMP, which has struggled to stay united since its inception after the election, can stick out long enough to see this long-term scenario through is debatable, analysts argue.
"There is a potential that [KMP] parties will clash when deciding who gets to be regional leaders," said Ray Rangkuti, the director of the Indonesian Civil Circle, or LIMA, a voter advocacy group. "Second, the regional chapters of each party may have their own agendas to pursue."
That view is shared by Zainuddin Amali, one of 11 Golkar legislators who broke with the party line and voted against the regional elections law last week. Zainuddin predicted the KMP coalition would collapse after Joko was inaugurated.
Golkar, the biggest party by far in the coalition, is already riven over chairman Aburizal Bakrie's failure to ensure that the party, which has never been out of the ruling bloc, backed the winning side in this year's election. Analysts say that Joko's choice of former Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla as his running mate will prevent Golkar from ever fully uniting behind KMP policies.
The Democrats, under Yudhoyono, have also been blatantly hedging their bets in a ploy for cabinet seats, while the United Development Party, or PPP, appears increasingly likely to break from the KMP in favor of Joko's coalition.
Ray said the KMP leadership had failed to anticipate these problems because it was "too busy taking revenge" over its loss in the presidential election. "It hasn't occurred to them that they will be fighting among themselves [and] that reaching a consensus to appoint regional leaders will be hard to achieve," he said.
Charta Politika's Yunarto agreed on the likelihood of some KMP parties switching sides. "The PPP is going to hold a congress, Golkar is preparing to hold a national meeting – even the Democrats may change their position," he said.
"Will the Red-and-White coalition become more powerful? I don't think so. I think that Joko [is inaugurated], things will change."
Source: http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/news/local-elections-ploy-seen-setup-presidential-vote/.
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