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Indonesian parties jockey for position and influence
Jakarta Globe - April 10, 2014
"There will be three axes: the Joko Widodo axis, Prabowo Subianto axis, and Aburizal Bakrie axis," said political analyst Muhammad Qodari from Indo Barometer, a pollster.
Given the presidential threshold which stipulates a minimum of 25% of popular votes for those who want to join the presidential election, all the axes will have to form alliances with other parties. All other political parties will revolve around and join one of these three axes.
The PDI-P axis
The PDI-P, which secured about 19 percent of the vote, as the clear winner of the legislative election stands as the first axis in the coming presidential election. The National Democrat Party (NasDem) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) appear to be the PDI-P's likeliest coalition mates by far.
"PDI-P has a good relationship with Surya Paloh," Qodari said, referring to Surya, the chairman of NasDem Party and owner of news channel Metro TV.
Should a coalition be formed between the two, Joko will receive an unprecedented publicity boost thanks to Surya's media holdings. This will help Joko to stand against Golkar's Aburizal, who also owns a news channel, TV One.
Qodari also said it was likely the PDI-P would form a coalition with the PKB. "The PDI-P has met with the PKB, which represents Nahdlatul Ulama [the country's biggest Islamic organization]," Qodari said.
Meanwhile, Golkar, which came second in the legislative election, is unlikely to form a coalition with the PDI-P. Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), dismisses the possibility that the PDI-P might form an alliance with Golkar.
"That guy from Lampung [Aburizal] is adamant on becoming the next president," Ikrar told the Globe. "The guy himself said that while Golkar is interested in forming a coalition with the PDI-P in the House of Representatives, Golkar will not take the PDI-P as its ally in the coming presidential election. He wants to be the president."
The Golkar axis
Golkar stands as the second axis in the coming presidential election and, it appears, is likely to form a coalition with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura).
Qodari told the Globe that it was foreseeable that Golkar would form a coalition with PKS, with leading members of Golkar having already met with the PKS. He noted that given the PKS's strong infrastructure such coalition would be formidable.
"The PKS has a solid political machine that can withstand the corruption committed by Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq [in a beef import scandal]," Qodari said.
The PKS's ability to maintain strong support at the polls exceeded analysts' expectations. Most surveys and analysts predicted it would lose a lot of support given the bad publicity it suffered after a number of party leaders were implicated in corruption cases. The party, however, managed to stay afloat with only a slight fall in support from the 2009 election.
Meanwhile, there is the real possibility that Golkar might find an ally in Hanura, whose chief patron, Wiranto, was its own presidential candidate in 2004.
Should such scenario take place, Golkar will enjoy the media support that Hanura has with Hary Tanoesoedibjo, the owner of the MNC Group, Indonesia's largest integrated media group, backing the party. Ikrar noted, however, that should Aburizal continue to insist on his presidential candidacy, given his low electability now, he would not make it too far in the presidential election.
Ikrar also pointed out that there was a real chance that Jusuf Kalla – Golkar's candidate in 2009 – might be Joko's running mate, which could divide Golkar. "If that happens, the 2004 scenario will repeat itself. Back then, Golkar nominated Wiranto as its presidential candidate, but J.K. ran with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono," he said.
The Gerindra axis
On the Prabowo axis, analysts reported that the United Development Party (PPP) and the Democratic Party were Gerindra's likeliest allies. "Suryadharma Ali [the leader of the PPP] has openly stated his support [for Prabowo]," Qodari said.
However, it appears that the planned coalition will not proceed so smoothly, as Suryadharma faces opposition from within his party. "There is still some internal tension within the PPP," Qodari told the Globe.
With respect to the possibility of Prabowo's Gerindra allying with the ruling Democratic Party, Qodari affirmed that the scenario was a real possibility.
"Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Prabowo have met in the [presidential] palace and it is possible that Pramono Edhie Wibowo or Gita Wirjawan" – two of 11 men currently vying for the Democrats' presidential nomination – "will be the vice presidential hopeful on Prabowo's ticket," Qodari said.
Joko's next move
Joko, meanwhile, told the Globe that the PDI-P had already made contact with officials from other parties in its quest to form a coalition.
"We have been in touch with all the parties but we are keeping things low key. We'll just see what happens in the future," he said. With respect to his potential running mate, Joko stated that the number of possible candidates had been narrowed down to three, but he refused to say who they might be. Joko added that the ultimate decision of who would run with him was down to him and not the party.
"The party first narrowed down the list of potential vice presidential candidates to 10, then to five, and finally to three [candidates]. I will personally choose the one among those three," he said.
Asked whether he would consider taking on Kalla as his running mate, Joko only flashed his trademark enigmatic smile. While he affirmed that it was Kalla who had brought him from Solo in Central Java, where he served as mayor, to the broader political stage in Jakarta, Joko refused to confirm that Kalla would be his running mate.
In the midst of the questioning about possible future coalitions, Joko said it was regrettable that the legislative election had divided Indonesia. "Our fight is not within. We have to unite," he said.
He went on to acknowledge the importance of Indonesia being a significant global economic player. "We should not be bickering among ourselves. Global, international competition is what we are facing now," he said.
Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/indonesian-parties-jockey-position-influence/.
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