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Joko Widodo fails to ignite voters but takes a step closer to presidency
Sydney Morning Herald - April 10, 2014
Mr Joko's party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, PDI-P will attract more votes than any of the other 11 parties, with about 19 per cent of the popular vote, according to quick count analysis, which has in the past been accurate. Final results will not be announced for another month.
But the result in the five-yearly parliamentary election has disappointed Mr Joko, PDI-P and the party's patron, political scion Megawati Sukarnoputri.
In the lead up to the election, some polling had predicted they would win 30 per cent, and the party itself had aimed for 27 per cent, propelled by the so-called "Jokowi effect" – referring to the Jakarta governor's nick-name.
These numbers would have given Mr Joko a clear run to the nomination for the presidential election in July, and a relatively supportive parliament to work with if he won.
But faced with external critics – rival candidate Prabowo Subianto described Mr Joko as Ms Megawati's "toy puppet" – PDI-P failed to capitalise fully on the candidate's runaway personal popularity.
Golkar, the political vehicle of former autocrat Suharto, came second, winning around 15 per cent of the vote in the election, dragged down by the unpopularity of its presidential candidate, businessman Aburizal Bakrie.
Gerindra, the party formed to support the presidential ambitions of former military strongman Prabowo Subianto, won a respectable 12 per cent.
As expected, the Democrat Party of outgoing president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was hit by successive corruption scandals, falling to less than 10 per cent from 21 per cent at the 2009 legislative election, though it was no wiped out as some had expected.
For a party to nominate a presidential candidate, it must win 25 per cent of the popular vote in the parliamentary poll (all parties will fall short) or 20 per cent of the parliamentary seats. Depending where its vote falls geographically, PDI-P is likely to cross this threshold. This means PDI-P is still likely to be able to nominate Mr Joko for president without making a coalition with other parties.
Other parties will need to form coalitions with one or more of the smaller parties to cross the presidential nomination threshold. The presidential election will be held on July 9.
However, analysts say the relatively open result means there may now be four presidential candidates. Until yesterday's result, most expected only three would qualify – from PDI-P, Gerindra and Golkar.
Recriminations began late on Wednesday over the muted PDI-P result, with one of its incumbent members of parliament, Budiman Sudjatmiko, saying that it "maybe shows the competence of the candidates is not sufficient.
"Some candidates didn't work hard enough as expected by the party chairperson," he said. He called for an "internal evaluation".
Another PDI-P legislator, Eva Kusuma Sundari, acknowledged the party "did not capitalise on the Jokowi effect to the maximum," failing, to get TV commercials on air in time.
But Mr Joko said his strategy for the presidential poll would be different: "There are only three or two or four candidates [for president]. It means the fight will be different. The one we had today involved 6600 fighters," he said.
A surprise winner was the National Awakening Party, of former president, the late Abdurrahman Wahid, which won about 10 per cent of the vote according to the quick count and exit polls. Other Islamic parties also did better than expected, though are still consigned to minor-party status.
Between them they secured about 30 per cent of the vote, more than the expected 20 per cent.
The election – the fourth genuinely democratic parliamentary election since Suharto was ousted in 1998 – does not just determine the make up of the two houses of the national parliament, it also picks the members of local and regional parliaments.
Indonesia's 187 million potential voters chose yesterday between 235,637 candidates for 19,699 positions at 545,000 polling stations across three time zones.
Amalia Agus, who is in her 60s, said outside her South Jakarta booth that her primary concern was to elect "an honest parliament, unlike the current one". Indonesia's national parliament is one of the most corrupt institutions the country.
At the other end of the age range, Sulistiani, 18, is one of 14 million voting in her first election, but was equally concerned about corruption, which she says means "the people who are poor will become poorer".
Sulistiani, the daughter of a rice-seller, and currently out of work herself, said her number one hope was that the new government deliver "better conditions for people, because Indonesia still has many poor people".
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