Jakarta – Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle presidential candidate Joko Widodo, the apparent winner of Wednesday election according to most quick counts, on Thursday called on the Indonesian people to pray for Palestine.

"I ask all Indonesian people to pray for the Palestinian people so they are given strength, physically and mentally, to maintain their sovereignty from Israel colonialism," he said at a press conference, as quoted by state run news agency Antara. "Hopefully God almighty will always be with the Palestine people."

Joko said he would meet with Palestine's ambassador to Indonesia. "I'm close with Palestine's ambassador and I will meet him to express direct support for Palestine and condemn Israel's attack on Gaza," Joko said. He also called on Indonesians to donate funds to Palestine through the embassy in Jakarta.

Agence France Presse reported Israeli air strikes against militants in Palestine have 60 people since since tuesday, including women and children. On Thursday, 14 were killed. The strikes were part of ISrael's response to a large uptick in rocket attacks over the past several says.

Joko says he sees Indonesia as an advocate for Palestine on the international stage. "Palestine is really meaningful for the Indonesian people, because Palestine is an Arab country, which belong to Arab League, which supported and acknowledged Indonesian independence," Joko said, as quoted by news portal Republika.co.id.

He said that Israel was guilty of human rights violations. "The situation in Gaza strip is really concerning, because there's mass killing," he said. He also called on the United Nations to condemn the airstrikes.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has no made any statement on the attacks. Foreign Affairs Marty Natalegawa has condemned.

"The military actions add to the burden of the Palestinian people in Gaza and West Bank," Marty said. "It should be understood that the problem was the occupation of Palestine by Israel, which should be put to an end through a peaceful negotiations to achieve the vision of a two state solution."

He said Indonesia will keep on cooperating with Palestine, the Non-Aligned Movement and the Organization of the Islamic Conference.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/jokowi-calls-indonesia-pray-palestine/

West Papua

Academic says Joko likely to be better match for West Papua

Radio New Zealand International - July 9, 2014

An academic specialising in West Papua says Indonesian presidential candidate Joko Widodo is likely to be more Papua friendly than his opponent Prabowo Subianto.

Indonesia is holding its elections today amid calls from West Papuan leaders for Papuans to boycott the elections in protest.

Jim Elmslie, of the University of Sydney's Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, says Joko Widodo, known as 'Jokowi', appears to have a more conciliatory approach to West Papua when compared to Prabowo Subianto's militaristic style.

But Dr Elmslie also told Amelia Langford neither candidate is interested in giving West Papua independence.

Jim Elmslie: Prabowo is seen as taking Indonesia back to a more authoritarian mode of government and that would probably be reflected on the ground by a more hardline approach by the military and police even though they are taking a fairly hardline approach now. Jokowi is seen as more of a people's person and indeed he doesn't have a military background. In his visits to Papua he tried to talk to grassroots people at the market etcetera and I am sure he would be more open to taking a discursive approach rather than a militaristic approach to demonstrators and trying to sort of heal the rift, if you can say it like that, he sees the problem in Papua as a rift between the Papuan people and the Indonesian people and has talked about trying to embrace the Papuan people and to dissolve the problems in that manner.

Amelia Langford: Now you have mentioned he [Jokowi] has said something about healing the rift or wanting to heal the rift. Has he made any indication that he would look to the future of providing independence to West Papua?

JE: Oh, there is no question that for both candidates independence is completely off the table and for the vast majority of Indonesians it is not an option at all. So what they would be looking at trying to do is to resolve the problems there within the framework of maintaining West Papua as part of Indonesia. There are no politicians there who are talking about independence as an option. From their point of view, it is more how do you deal with this problem? How do you deal with this rift? Whether you deal with it with a hardline approach and you crack down on people who are demonstrating or whether you try and make concessions and you have some sort of dialogue or you make gestures to try and reconcile the conflict. And that's really how it has played out over the last 20, 30 years. It's most of the time hardline repression and then periods of openness particularly under Gus Dur [Abdurrahman Wahid] after 2000, which many Indonesian politicians remember with horror because they thought that Gus Dur – that by being conciliatory towards the Papuans he opened up a [can] of worms and the big congress of 2000 where the Papuans were outspoken in their demands for independence – that that really was a counter- development for Indonesia. So I think you will find, whoever comes in, they are not interested in talking about independence – that they both acknowledge that there are serious problems in West Papua and it is a matter of how to deal with them and for both the candidates are interested in economic development down there. They see Papua as the least developed part of Indonesia and that the problems might be resolved through economic development and increased services. Mind you, which was also an argument that was used in East Timor for many years, that East Timor's problems would diminish with economic development and that didn't really prove the case there.

AL: So for West Papuans, we've got two candidates here, and one might be slightly more attractive than the other, but both options are pretty unsatisfactory?

JE: Well, for the Papuans they are in effect trapped within Indonesia and they don't want to be but the nature of the circumstance is they have found themselves against their wishes within the Indonesian nation. And certainly most, if not every Papuan I have talked to, would if given the chance not be in that situation but they are and it is a quandary for them. So I guess this boycott [of elections] to a large extent is symbolic and it is a message to people like yourself, and myself, saying, well reiterating this deep dissatisfaction of the status quo but also except for the options like economic development, possibly demilitarisation, what the Papuan people often express their desire for independence really is not an option for the Indonesian Government.

AL: How critical is this particular election for West Papua?

JE: Well I think it will be critical in the senses that I have mentioned – the general outlooks from the candidates. If you are a person living in that situation, where you are not free, what you say and do can have very severe consequences to your personal freedom and health. If you are in an environment as you are now where there is almost complete impunity – where the police and the military will pick people up and beat them and in the worst extremes people have been killed and there are no sanctions on the police officers or the soldiers who did that. They don't justify their actions then you live in a climate of fear and that comes to an extent from Jakarta, from the president, and I think if I was a West Papuan – if Jokowi was the president I would feel slightly more at ease than if Prabowo was. Simply because Jokowi doesn't have a military background so he doesn't see government and authority through the lens of a military mind – that he is a civilian who believes to an extent that the military should be accountable rather than a law unto itself.

Source: http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/programmes/datelinepacific/audio/20141028/academic-says-joko-likely-to-be-better-match-for-west-papua

Prabowo an 'apocalypse', Jokowi a false promise: West Papuans opt out

Crikey.com - July 8, 2014

Sally Whyte – Tomorrow's Indonesian election will be especially tense in West Papua, where activist groups are calling for a boycott of the poll, and some have been arrested by the Indonesian military.

The call for a boycott is led by the West Papua National Committee (KNPB), and a video released called "Boikot Pilpres 2014" (boycott election 2014) features five leaders of different activist groups, united in calling for a peaceful boycott. It features Benny Wenda, exiled founder of International Parliamentarians for West Papua, and political prisoners Victor Yeimo, Filep Karma and Forkorus Yaboisembut speaking from jail. There are also reports that activists have been treated with violence and that approximately 23 activists have been arrested.

Dr Jim Elmslie, an expert on West Papua from the University of Sydney, says that locals are terrified of the military and "the boycott is not being promoted down the street, it's a quiet campaign".

"What is interesting this time is the Indonesian police and military have been increasingly strident to people about the boycotts. They've made threats that they'll shoot on sight people promoting the boycott. There's a very high level of tension in West Papua at the moment," he told Crikey.

The boycott is the latest way in which West Papuans are drawing attention to their cause, because as Dr Eben Kirksey from UNSW says, "it's really because they don't have a choice". According to Kirksey, West Papuans want to vote on self-determination, not to legitimise the status quo. The unity of the different groups shown in the video is important, according to Kirksey.

The video emphasises the importance of peace and avoiding intimidation, with President of the National Federal Republic of West Papua Forkorus Yaboisembut's comments translated as "for the citizens of West Papua who don't participate in the election as well as for those who do participate in the election, do not intimidate others or create conflict".

The result of the election between Prabowo Subianto and Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is still too close for observers to predict with any confidence, though Jokowi has a slight lead in the latest polls.

While experts and activists agree that a win for Prabowo would not be positive for West Papuans, opinions are mixed on Jokowi, because while he has engaged with West Papuans, there is doubt that he could change the status quo.

Kirksey says if Prabowo wins tomorrow, it would be "apocalypse" for West Papuans. Ronny Kareni, Melbourne-based West Papua independence advocate, said: "We all know Prabowo's history; there won't be any brighter days ahead for Papuans." As a general in 1996, Prabowo led a controversial military mission in West Papua in which a Red Cross helicopter was used and several locals were killed. He has also been accused of war crimes in other conflicts.

"Prabowo has made his views known on his style of government, the reversion back to the hardline approach," Elmslie said. Jokowi is seen as a more liberal candidate. He has visited Papua twice in recent times. Kareni says that Jokowi's comments that international media should be let into West Papua have gone down well with locals; "that's a strong sign to win the hearts and the votes." Elmslie also says that Jokowi is well-liked from engaging with Papuans at the street level.

But the experts agree that even if Jokowi were to win the election, it still wouldn't be great news for Papuans. "If Jokowi wins the fear is that it will be a bright and shiny plan but the marginalisation will continue and the demographic shift will continue," said Kirksey. "We've seen development programs on paper, but my fear is that if Jokowi gets in then those development plans will continue and those problems won't be addressed."

Source: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/07/08/prabowo-an-apocalypse-jokowi-a-false-promise-west-papuans-opt-out/

Papuans urged to boycott polls in protest

Jakarta Globe - July 8, 2014

Rebecca Lake, Jakarta – England could hardly be any further from the Indonesian province of West Papua but for the exiled leader of the Free West Papua movement, Benny Wenda, the people in his homeland absorb almost all of his energy and thoughts – now more than ever.

"I want to send a message to the people of West Papua wherever they may be. This is time to choose your own future, own destiny," Wenda told the Jakarta Globe ahead of the presidential election. "We are going to boycott the vote, we must boycott the vote."

For the former political prisoner, and many other Papuans like him, the struggle for equality in their restive and poverty-stricken province has cumulated in disdain for the Indonesian political system. Instead of succumbing to yet more "empty promises," several factions within the Papuan community including Wenda's Free West Papua movement and the National Committee for West Papua (KNPB) are using this election as a platform to make their demands for independence known.

"We are considered subhuman, second-class citizens so we never feel confident in the government... for the last 50 years we have voted and in return all we have had is the military and killing."

In an attempt to quell the anti-state sentiment brewing in the region, Indonesian security forces are making their presence in the province known. Thousands of police officers have provided security in the lead-up to the election in designated areas; Jayapura (the provincial capital), throughout the highlands and along the border with Papua New Guinea.

Yet the "security" status of the military personnel deployed throughout the province is becoming increasingly questionable as instances of killings, imprisonment and beatings are being reported.

According to an article published on Berita Satu.com, police in the Mimika district arrested 30 protestors on Friday who were distributing flyers to encourage the election boycott. Lt. Raffles Manurung, of the Indonesian Military (TNI), told the news portal that the protestors face a maximum penalty of 10 years behind bars for their actions.

"Mimika is now secure," the commander confirmed, adding "we must be vigilant over security concerns especially since the presidential election is such a big moment."

Moreover, in the lead-up to the vote, numerous cases of reported beatings and killings throughout the West Papuan region are being published by pro- independence blogs such as Suara Duka Dari Papua as well as the Free West Papua Facebook page. While these cases are difficult to independently verify, according to Oktovianus Pogau, the editor in chief of the Jayapura-based news site Suara Papua, targeted attacks on supporters of the boycott movement are happening on a daily basis and he reports that many Papuans have been threatened to vote.

"It's difficult to estimate how many attacks have occurred," Oktovianus told the Jakarta Globe, "but they are frequent."

For Wenda, who receives messages around the clock alerting him of abuses inflicted on his people, his message is clear. "If there was any democratic space for us in West Papua we would be able to freely express our political opinions," he said, adding that the military has threatened "destroy" Papuans who refused to vote.

This lack of faith in Indonesian democracy is often expressed by many Papuans, especially the youth, who question what they feel is a contradiction.

"I do not feel any democracy even though Indonesia is said to be a democratic country," says Ruth Otegay, a 27-year-old Papuan student and rights activist living in Jakarta.

"People who declare expressions and certain beliefs are still arrested, tortured, killed or jailed. So even though Indonesia is declared to be democratically free, it is not valid," she said.

While he can understand why many of his people feel disheartened, Karel Phil Erari, deputy chairman of the Alliance of Churches in Indonesia – who last month delivered an address to a human rights panel in Geneva urging the international community to acknowledge the persecution happening in West Papua – says it's important for the Papuan community to remain engaged in Indonesian politics despite how jaded they may feel.

"I encourage all Papuans to use their right to vote," the outspoken Joko Widodo supporter said, who recently met with the presidential candidate, better known as Jokowi, to discuss his commitments to Papua. "We are tired of fighting so we must find ways to have a peaceful dialogue with Jakarta, and Jokowi has promised this," Karel said, adding: "Jokowi is a new hope for the Papuan people."

Andreas Harsono, of Human Rights Watch in Indonesia, agreed that it is important for the Papuan people to use the political process as a tool to better their lives but he says he is not entirely convinced by Joko's capability.

"I can totally understand if Papuans will vote for Jokowi mainly because of human rights abuses. But I am afraid Jokowi cannot deliver as much as the Papuans want in Papua," Andreas said, adding that long-held allegations of vote buying and rigging have further discredited democratic ideals in the region.

[Additional Reporting by Raisha Vierginia.]

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/papuans-urged-boycott-polls-protest/

Human rights & justice

Seven gross human rights violations yet to be settled: Komnas HAM

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Jakarta – The National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) said that the next president will have to deal with seven cases of gross human rights violations yet to be resolved.

According to Komnas HAM commissioner Siti Noor Laila as well as the Team of Settlement of Gross Human Right Abuses in Indonesia, set up by Komnas HAM in December 2012, say that unresolved cases include the 1989 Talangsari massacre and the forced disappearance of pro-democracy activists in 1998.

Other cases include the Trisakti University shootings, Semanggi I and Semanggi II student shootings, mysterious shootings in 1980's, the massacres of 1965-1966 and the May 1998 riots.

Originally, the team had recommended that the state address ten cases, but three of them have already been legally processed – the Abepure, East Timor, and Tanjung Priok massacres.

Laila said that even though the dossiers of the seven outstanding cases had been submitted to the Prosecutor's Office, the state had yet to handle them. "Due to this, the cases have become politicized to win votes during the presidential election," she said.

Laila said that the next president must be able to resolve the cases, adding that it could be done in two ways: either the president approaches it in a judicial manner in which he will set up a human rights court, or politically by announcing a national reconciliation. (fss)

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/12/seven-gross-human-rights-violations-yet-be-settled-komnas-ham.html

Politics puts ratification of UN convention by House in doubt

Jakarta Post - July 11, 2014

Margareth S. Aritonang, Jakarta – The future of a bill ratifying the United Nations convention against involuntary disappearances is hanging by a thread as lawmakers continue to drag their feet though the House of Representatives' current session ends in September.

House Commission I overseeing defense and foreign affairs has tabled endorsement of the bill for months, although it had completed deliberations on it in January this year, over apparent concerns that the convention could potentially be used to stymie the political ambitions of Gerindra Party chief patron Prabowo Subianto and the Hanura Party chairman, Gen. (ret) Wiranto. Both former generals have been accused of involvement in past human rights abuses.

Prabowo, a former commander of the Army's Special Forces (Kopassus), and Wiranto, ex-commander of the Indonesian Military (TNI), were in 2003 named by the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) as being responsible for human rights violations that occurred during the 1998 riots that preceded the fall of former president Soeharto's regime. Prabowo was singled out in particular for the disappearance of 13 pro-democracy activists.

Commission I chairman Mahfudz Siddiq said Thursday that he was confident the House would approve the ratification before its term ended in September, because the majority of party factions in the House, excluding Gerindra and Hanura, had previously supported the ratification.

"We will prioritize the deliberation of the ratification as soon as we resume the House session in mid-August," Mahfudz, a lawmaker from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), said at the House on Thursday.

The PKS is a member of the coalition backing Prabowo for the presidency. Legislators from Gerindra, the head of the coalition, have vowed to block the ratification under the pretext that the bill needed further consideration due to possible foreign intervention.

"It is not urgent for us to adopt the convention now because there are several other countries, including the United States, which have yet to do so. We don't want adoption opening the door for the international community to interfere with our legal system," said Gerindra lawmaker on Commission I, Ahmad Muzani.

Although Hanura is not a member of the Gerindra-led coalition, its faction at the House had also rejected ratification. Hanura chairman Wiranto has been accused of rights abuses during Indonesia's occupation of Timor Leste.

Hanura lawmaker Susaningtyas Nefo Handayani Kertapati argued that ratification could ensnare Indonesia in foreign interests.

"We must be really careful. The international community might think that it's important for us to ratify the convention, but it could potentially involve us in certain political interests," Susaningtyas said.

"Thus, Hanura refuses to approve the adoption and calls for further discussions to determine whether or not Indonesia should ratify the convention."

The UN convention against involuntary disappearances requires ratifying governments to ascertain the whereabouts or find the remains of previously disappeared persons. That condition would almost certainly entail the prosecution of perpetrators of forced disappearances.

In addition to the kidnapping of 13 pro-democracy activists during the 1998 May riots, more than 50,000 people were recorded missing between 1965 and 2005, according to a report from the Institute for Policy Research and Advocacy (Elsam).

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/11/politics-puts-ratification-un-convention-house-doubt.html

Denmark accused of supporting Indonesian death squad

Copenhagen Post - July 9, 2014

Andreas Jakobsen – Denmark has since 2004 supported an Indonesian police academy (JCLEC) where the country's controversial elite unit Detachment 88 is being trained to fight terrorism.

But several human rights organisations claim the unit acts as a death squad in Indonesia's troubled West Papua region, and that it tortures and kills civilians and members of separatist movements.

"Not only are you responsible under these circumstances, in which you support the police, but you are taking part in a crime. If your attitude is so naove, you can't help anyone," Basil Fernando, a legal advisor at the Asian Human Rights Commission in Hong Kong, told Deadline.

You have no control

Nick Chesterfield, a journalist at West Papua Media, claimed Denmark had absolutely no control of where its funds were going.

Between 2004 and 2013, Denmark has granted the police academy a total of 13 million kroner, and the Foreign Ministry plans to extend its support until 2017. Australia is among the other countries that support the police forces.

Denmark stands firm

Mikael Ekman, Denmark's ambassador in Indonesia, rejects the activists' allegations. "We made it clear that human rights and the rights of women and children is a priority from a Danish aspect, and that must be acknowledged and valued at JCLEC and the Indonesian police," he said.

Foreign Minister Martin Lidegaard commented that Denmark supports JCLEC to strengthen the police's knowledge of international rules and conventions and how to translate it into practice.

Source: http://cphpost.dk/news/complicit-in-the-act-of-killing-denmark-accused-of-supporting-indonesian-death-squad.10168.html

Political parties & elections

Calls mount for Prabowo to concede defeat

Jakarta Post - July 14, 2014

Margareth S. Aritonang, Jakarta – Many have criticized the Gerindra Party-led coalition's presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto's decision to press ahead with his claim that he won the July 9 presidential election despite quick count results from credible pollsters to the contrary.

In an open letter to Prabowo and his running mate Hatta Rajasa, founding member of the National Mandate Party (PAN) Abdillah Toha, appealed to the two politicians to face the fact that they had lost the election.

"My suggestion is that the two should have a reality check. I know that deep in their hearts, they know they have lost. They should be just resigned to the results, as gentlemen and statesmen. Eight pollsters can not be wrong," Abdillah said in his open letter published on kompasiana.com over the weekend.

Abdillah also lamented the fact that PAN, the party he helped found, had become a tool for power-hungry politicians.

"It is unfortunate that PAN, as it has progressed, has turned into a power-oriented party. It is not wrong for a party to chase power as long as it is done fairly and ethically," Abdillah said.

Abdillah was particularly miffed with a statement from the head of Prabowo's national campaign team, former Constitutional Court chief justice Mahfud MD, who said that he would take Prabowo's claims of victory to the Constitutional Court.

"It seems that you will not accept the KPU's [General Elections Commission] result if it favors your rival. It worries us – what kind of government would Prabowo form should he win the election," Toha said.

Established in 1998 by key reform figures – including former chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Amien Rais, who is also part of Prabowo's camp – PAN played an important role in fighting for the reform movement that resulted in the downfall of former president Soeharto, Prabowo's former father in law, in May 1998.

Early in its establishment, PAN was known to be an open party that promoted pluralism, although it was originally close to the Muhammadiyah, the country's second-largest Islamic organization. Founding member senior writer and poet Goenawan Muhamad, left the party on the eve of its endorsement of Prabowo.

Over the weekend, many have also expressed anger after learning that Prabowo had openly attacked Jokowi during his interviews with international media outlets.

In an interview with the BBC, Prabowo openly denounced Jokowi, saying: "I think my rival is a product of a PR campaign [...] a tool of the oligarchs [...] He's not a man of the people. He claims to be humble, but that's just an act."

In the interview, Prabowo also said he would not concede a defeat in spite of results from the quick counts. "All of the real counts show I'm leading. So I'm very confident that I have the mandate of the Indonesian people," he said.

The former TNI general also blasted some of pollsters who said Jokowi had won. "Those institutions [...] they are all very partisan, they openly supported Jokowi over the last year. They are actually part of the Jokowi campaign, so they are not completely objective. I think they are part of this grand design to manipulate perception," he said.

Writer and political blogger Jenny Jusuf said she was astounded by the tone of the interview. "I watched your interview with an international TV station. [...] I was astonished. Are you that angry?" Jenny wrote in her open letter.

Jenny said that she now feared the prospect of Prabowo seizing power in spite of his defeat. "I don't want to have a leader who is controlled by ambition and anger because I don't want to live in fear. We were colonized for more than three centuries. And we lived in fear for more than 30 years. We suffered enough already," she said.

With tensions now running high, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has called on both camps to exercise restraint. For similar reasons, the Indonesian Broadcasting Commission (KPI) has banned the coverage by all television stations of quick count results.

The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), a member of the Gerindra-led coalition, recently broadcast its so-called "real count", which said the Prabowo-Hatta ticket lead with 52.3 percent to the Jokowi-Kalla ticket's 47.7 percent.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/14/calls-mount-prabowo-concede-defeat.html

More irregularities reported in vote counting

Jakarta Post - July 14, 2014

Haeril Halim/Arya Dipa, Jakarta, Bandung – As the General Elections Commission (KPU) continued with its tabulation of the July 9 presidential election results, many have reported alleged irregularities where vote counts were inflated in favor of the Gerindra Party's presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto.

One of the most blatant acts of tampering occurred in two regencies, Sampang and Bangkalan, in Madura island, East Java, just three days after Wednesday's voting.

The national campaign team of Joko "Jokowi" Widodo-Jusuf Kalla ticket reported that the pair had won zero votes in a number places in the two regions, which the team said was highly unlikely.

"It completely does not make sense. In every polling station there are at least one or two witnesses from our team who cast their votes at the polling station, not to mention several National Awakening Party [PKB] members and also a number of volunteers from the [Nahdlatul Ulama's youth wing GP] Ansor group. So it is impossible that the Jokowi-Kalla ticket did not get a single vote," Ferry Mursyidan Baldan of Jokowi-Kalla's team said on Saturday in Jakarta. The PKB is part of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)-led coalition to elect the Jokowi-Kalla ticket.

A manual vote tabulation conducted by the Jokowi-Kalla campaign team showed that the pair won 55.5 percent of the vote in East Java.

Ferry suspected that foul play had taken place. "It is logical to suspect that something went wrong at the polling stations in Sampang and Bangkalan," Ferry said.

A number of credible polling institutions, whose quick counts in the past have proven accurate predictors of the KPU's official vote tally, indicated that Jokowi won around 52 percent of the vote, with 48 percent going to Prabowo.

Prabowo, however, claimed to have won the election by citing a number of survey institutions whose Wednesday's quick-count results were deemed "questionable" by the Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys (Persepi).

Irregularities were also found in West Java. In Indramayu regency in West Java, one of Prabowo's strongholds, Jokowi-Kalla supporters found additional evidence of vote-rigging.

Ade Sudjarat of the West Java provincial branch of the NasDem Party, another party supporting the Jokowi-Kalla candidacy, said that there was a discrepancy between the total number of votes published on the KPU's website and the total votes written in the recapitulation documents, also known as C1 forms.

In the C1 forms, Jokowi received 569 votes, while Prabowo garnered 486 votes. The results published on the KPU's website showed that Prabowo got 596 votes, while Jokowi only got 590 votes, Ade said.

"Can you imagine that if this is just from three polling stations, what [is happening at] the other polling stations? That's why we try to pool data from one polling station to another to anticipate further irregularities," Ade went on.

Alleged violations have also taken place abroad. Migrant Care executive director Anis Hidayah suspected that a number of irregularities had taken place in Malaysia.

Anies said that the irregularities allegedly involved ballots being mailed by the Indonesian embassy in Kuala Lumpur to the KPU.

The total vote collected by the Prabowo-Hatta ticket was 39,671, while Jokowi secured only 3,709 votes. Meanwhile, in data recorded manually from all polling stations in Malaysia, Prabowo was credited with 4,099 votes compared to Jokowi's 4,815.

Jokowi-Kalla team spokesperson Eva Kusuma Sundari has called on the KPU and the Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) to be transparent regarding vote tabulation from overseas voters, especially in the delivery of ballots from abroad to the KPU, which Eva considered marred with irregularities.

"The Jokowi-Kalla team has urged our witnesses in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia not to sign any documents regarding vote recapitulation before the KPU comes clean about accountability and transparency regarding vote recapitulation abroad," Eva said.

According to manual vote counts, the Jokowi-Kalla ticket won in a majority of countries abroad, but the real-count results dramatically changed after the KPU added votes coming in from overseas voters.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/14/more-irregularities-reported-vote-counting.html

Prabowo lashes out at Jakarta Post, calls owner a 'useless sh!t'

Merdeka.com - July 14, 2014

Angga Yudha Pratomo – Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto held a press conference after attending a declaration of a permanent coalition at the Proclamation Building in Central Jakarta. The event was attended by scores of foreign journalists.

A number of questions were thrown up by reporters. Strangely, when a female journalist from the Jakarta Post English language newspaper asked a question, Prabowo became furious.

The odd thing was that the journalist only wanted to ask a question about the coalition supporting Prabowo and his running mate vice presidential candidate Hatta Rajasa. Suddenly however, Prabowo accused the Jakarta Post of being partisan.

"Jakarta Post? Its support has been partisan. I don't want to answer [questions from] the Jakarta Post. Thank you", said Prabowo on Monday July 14. "It's not your mistake, it's the owner's mistake (The Jakarta Post) your media", he asserted.

Following the press conference, as he passed by Prabowo spoke to the journalist directly calling the Jakarta Post undemocratic. "Because your owner (the Jakarta Post) is a useless sh!t, who doesn't respect democracy", he explained. [ian]

[Translated by James Balowski.]

Source: http://www.merdeka.com/peristiwa/prabowo-marah-sebut-pemilik-the-jakarta-post-brengsek.html

In contested election, Indonesia's democracy on the line

Reuters - July 13, 2014

Fransiska Nangoy and Kanupriya Kapoor, Jakarta – Indonesia's young democracy faces its biggest challenge since emerging from decades of autocratic rule 16 years ago after both candidates claimed victory in last week's presidential election.

It will be up to two key institutions, both with bruised reputations, to decide which of the two men who contested the July 9 poll has the right to move into the white-pillared presidential palace in central Jakarta and lead the world's third biggest democracy for the next five years.

The first will be the Elections Commission, hit by graft charges in the past, and which is now in the process of checking the vote count before it announces the final result by July 22.

The camps of the rival candidates – Jakarta Governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and former general Prabowo Subianto – have made none-too-subtle suggestions that the other might cheat in the time it takes to declare the official result.

Despite the tensions, there has been no violence, although that is a worry. Hundreds of people were killed in violence that swept the vast archipelago when ironman ruler Suharto was ousted in 1998 after over three decades in office and a shaky but functioning democracy put in his place.

No presidential election, and this is only the third through direct voting, has been so close, or so bitter, since Indonesia declared independence in 1945. But officials and poll observers say it is not easy to cheat, given the institutional safeguards that have been built in.

"At the (village) level, that is the place where you can exercise the most effective fraud. It's not easy because you have prominent pollsters saying what the result is," one international election observer said, noting that there are five levels of vote tabulation from the village to national level. He declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Quick vote counts by private groups, which have proven very accurate in the past, put Jokowi ahead by around five points against Prabowo, although the former special forces general has rejected the tallies. "What's clear is that seven credible pollsters have released their quick count results. That can be (used)... Even though it's not official," Jokowi told Reuters.

Prabowo's camp says those pollsters deliberately skewed the quick count in favor of Jokowi and that its own counts put Prabowo just ahead.

Based on the counts, which provide a sampling of the roughly 130 million votes cast, analysts estimated the losing side would need to fraudulently reverse 6.5 million or more votes to come out on top.

"You would have to mass manufacture votes at the village level which is hard because of the amount of scrutiny there is," the election observer said. Votes are counted on election day in public and in daylight.

Elections commission

Overseeing that process is the Elections Commission (KPU) which has had brushes with graft scandals in the past but which is now see as clean enough to come up with a valid result.

"The KPU is the best we've had," said Asia Foundation's Indonesia head, Sandra Hamid, adding that the openness of voting data made it very hard the fiddle with the result.

Transparency International Indonesia too doubted the KPU result would be subject to fraud.

"A lot of the mistakes of the Elections Commission has been related to capacity and administrative work that has been sloppy rather than by design wanting to subvert the system. I don't think anyone in the commission would want to do that." the group's chairwoman, Natalia Soebagjo, said.

Outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has told both candidates to keep their supporters off the streets. Calm has been encouraged by placing about 250,000 police on alert across the archipelago and by the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan in a country that is home to the world's largest Muslim population.

Constitutional court

Once the result is out, the losing side is likely to launch a challenge in the Constitutional Court which has final say over contested elections and is the other key institution that is in the spotlight.

But the court's reputation is in tatters after its last head was sentenced this month to life in jail for corruption which some analysts said was probably enough to ensure that this time it would go out of its way to look squeaky clean.

"If it wants to restore its credibility, it must ensure that once a dispute does arise it handles it properly and (judges)... forget their political affiliations because many of those in the court right now have past political affiliations," said Transparency's Soebagjo.

Asked if Prabowo might appeal to the Court, his brother told Reuters: "Yes, we're keeping that option open. Potentially this could go on... for several weeks anyway."

The court's new chief justice, Hamdan Zoelva, said it was ready for any challenges. "I hope there will be no need to bring the election result to the Constitutional Court," he told Reuters. "If it is brought to us... the court will aim for a unanimous decision. But if that is impossible to reach, then they will have to settle with a majority ruling.

"We will, to our utmost, independently and professionally treat every party equally. We will carefully and thoroughly resolve the case. That is all we can do."

The candidates have 72 hours after the official result to lodge a complaint with the Court. A decision, which cannot be appealed, much be reached by a panel of nine judges within 14 days.

Zoelva's appointment has come under criticism over his past as a politician. The party he belonged to supports Prabowo. An earlier and popular head of the Court, Mahfud MD, is a prominent member of Prabowo's team.

But the lawyer who would represent the Jokowi camp in any election case in the Constitutional Court, called the MK, said he was confident its verdicts would be neutral.

"This is the time for the MK to prove to the people that they are a credible court. I don't think they will disappoint. (Former chief justice) Mahfud MD may have influence but the future of the nation, the accountability to the people, the due process of law is far more important than loyalty to the former chief justice," said Todung Mulya Lubis. "The stakes are too high."

[Additional reporting by Dennys Kapa, Randy Fabi and Jonathan Thatcher, Writing by Jonathan Thatcher; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan.]

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/contested-election-indonesias-democracy-line-032459923.html

Gerindra claims Prabowo-Hatta victory in Jakarta

Jakarta Post - July 13, 2014

Jakarta – The Gerindra Party Jakarta-chapter central executive board chairman, Muhamad Taufik, said candidate pair Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa won the presidential election in Jakarta with 52 percent of the vote according to the results of a "real count" conducted by his monitoring team.

"The results were based on the manual recapitulation of data presented in the vote recapitulation [C1] forms. We don't use quick counts," he said as quoted by tempo.co in Jakarta on Sunday.

Election committee members at each polling station scan the C1 forms and upload them to the General Elections Commission (KPU) website.

Taufik, who is also a member of Prabowo-Hatta campaign team, claimed the candidate pair had gained major victories in Central, East and South Jakarta, while in West and North Jakarta, the pair won by a slight margin.

Based on its findings, Taufik said his team had filed reports with the Election Supervisory Committee (Bawaslu) regarding false vote recapitulation reports, especially in West and North Jakarta.

"There is a sub-district where 1,000 votes disappeared. Overall, 1,245 polling stations in Jakarta experienced problems with the vote counting, based on our monitoring activities," said Taufik.

Separately, a quick count conducted by Jakarta-based Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) showed that in Jakarta, Joko "Jokowi" Widod-Jusuf Kalla led Prabowo-Hatta, 55.86 percent to 45.14 percent.

At the national level, SMRC and other pollsters, such as the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Cyrus Network, confirmed Jokowi-Kalla as the seventh Indonesian president and vice president with around 52 percent of the vote over Prabowo-Hatta with only around 48 percent.

Both candidate pairs have claimed victory in the presidential president, anchoring their claims to quick count data by different pollsters. The Prabowo camp cited data from polling agencies, including the National Survey Institute (LSN), the Indonesia Votes Network (JSI) and the Strategic Development and Policy Research Center (Puskaptis), which have been accused of using dubious methodologies. (gda/ebf)

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/13/gerindra-claims-prabowo-hatta-victory-jakarta.html

Sketchy poll firms reported to police

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Ina Parlina, Jakarta – The Jakarta branch of the Indonesian Legal Aid and Human Rights Association (PBHI) has filed a report with the National Police on the alleged misrepresentation of facts by four survey institutions in connection to the 2014 presidential election quick-count results.

The watchdog accused the Strategic Development and Policy Research Center (Puskaptis), the National Survey Institute (LSN), the Indonesian Research Center (IRC) and the Indonesian Votes Network (JSI) – which announced the victory of the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa ticket – of public deception.

PBHI chairman Poltak Sinaga urged the pollsters to come clean about their methods. "These pollsters do not have good intentions [...] There have been no apologies on their behalf, they have not admitted their mistakes might endanger the country," Poltak said at National Police headquarters in South Jakarta, on Saturday.

Poltak submitted recordings from several television stations showing that LSN's quick counts amounted to more than 100 percent of the vote.

"You cannot produce such numbers out of thin air. They [the pollsters] must immediately clarify to the public the methodology used in their surveys to restore public calm," he said, declining to disclose evidence on the other pollsters.

Seven pollsters such as Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), Indikator Politik, CSIS-Cyrus, Kompas and the Radio Republic of Indonesia (RRI), placed candidates Joko "Jokowi" Widodo-Jusuf Kalla in the lead with an average of 52 percent of the vote, whereas rivals Prabowo-Hatta garnered an average of 47 percent.

However, Puskaptis, JSI, IRC and the LSN declared that Prabowo-Hatta won by less than 1 to 4 percent. Their results have led to public confusion as their track records have shown they are less credible than those that announced Jokowi's lead.

The Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys (Persepi) previously declared that it would audit the methodology used by seven of the 11 pollsters in light of the irregularities. The seven agencies – five favoring Jokowi and two favoring Prabowo – are registered with the association.

Simon Tambunan, PBHI's advocacy division head, said the police report had nothing to do with perceived biases.

"If the differences are accountable, we'll accept them. Our concern is that their results are being used to manipulate public perception," Simon said. "If there is intention to deceive the public, then criminal charges can be raised and tested by the police."

Puskaptis and IRC said they were ready to face an audit. "We must be accountable to the public," Puskaptis executive director Husin Yazid told a discussion on Saturday.

Dirga Ardiansa, a researcher at the University of Indonesia, said survey agencies should be transparent about their methods.

"We should be careful with groups providing surveys with a margin of error above 2 percent. This means that each survey group takes samples from between 2,400 to 5,000 polling stations. If they would like to be precise, they need to take samples from 9,400 polling stations to achieve a margin of error below 1 percent," he said.

LSI revealed it had gathered data from 2,000 polling stations while IRC and Puskaptis collected results from 1,800 and 1,250 polling stations, respectively.

Former Supreme Court justice Asep Iwan Iriawan said broadcasting false information to the public was criminal. "There is no room for error, especially with pollsters. Their professionalism is tied to their ability to provide accurate numbers and figures," he said.

Asep said it did not matter whether the survey institutions recognized and corrected their errors. "They are bound by the principles of prudence," he said. (tjs/put)

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/13/sketchy-poll-firms-reported-police.html

Indonesia: rivals both claim victory in presidential election

The Guardian (Australia) - July 12, 2014

Kate Lamb, Jakarta – On election night in the world's third-largest democracy, Indonesians had the surreal option of tuning into alternative political realities.

Supporters of presidential candidate Joko Widodo, or Jokowi as he is known here, could flick their television sets to MetroTV, a station that aired live footage of the Jakarta governor in his signature blue, red and white check shirt declaring he had won.

But over on TVOne, his opponent, the former army general Prabowo Subianto, was also proclaiming himself victorious, thanking the public for giving him a mandate to lead and later thrice pumping his fist into the air as he yelled merdeka (freedom).

Both candidates based their victories on differing exit polls. But with polling stations situated on more than 6,000 islands, the official vote takes weeks to compile. This race, touted as the tightest and most polarising in the country's history, was always going to be close, but few could have predicted that it would result in a political limbo and two self-declared presidents.

The impasse is unlikely to be resolved until the official result is released by the elections commission on 22 July – and perhaps not even then, if it is contested at the Constitutional Court – but the majority of reputable pollsters are putting Jokowi in the lead.

For now, the country awaits a future led by one of two very different men: Jokowi the reformer and Prabowo, representative of an old guard that indulged in unsavoury practices in the days of President Suharto.

Raised in a bamboo shack in the central Java town of Solo, Jokowi has been shaking up Indonesian politics since he was elected Jakarta governor in September 2012. A former furniture entrepreneur turned mayor of Solo, Jokowi, as governor, has made unglamorous but significant changes to the lives of average Jakartans, adding more buses, building reservoirs and encouraging greater transparency in public offices.

"I've only known Jokowi for a year and I already see changes," said Angeline Christine, 30, at a central Jakarta polling booth on election day. "We need a leader who doesn't just talk and make promises."

But most importantly, Jokowi appears to have changed the way some Indonesians view their politicians: energising a previously apathetic populace by offering them an alternative to the old elite pack.

Indonesia has made laudable democratic gains since the fall of dictator Suharto in 1998, but many figures from the Suharto, or New Order, days remain influential today, as does his corrupt legacy.

"In 1998 we managed to bring down the New Order. But to replace that with someone who has really been able to listen to aspirations of the people, we have failed for 16 years," says former activist and now senior Jokowi adviser Hilmar Farid. "And now we have this guy here, Jokowi."

Speaking from a Jokowi volunteer centre in south Jakarta, manned by a small army of volunteers in matching check shirts and scarves, Farid said that, after 16 chaotic years of reform, Jokowi offers Indonesia a new sense of direction, and a feeling that ordinary citizens can participate in that change.

Prabowo, son of a former cabinet minister in Suharto's government, an ex- general formerly married to Suharto's daughter, is Jokowi's polar opposite. From an elite, wealthy family, Prabowo was dismissed from the military for ordering the abduction of pro-democracy activists in 1998. After a brief period in voluntary exile in Jordan, he returned to Indonesia to pursue a career in politics and has been working towards this moment for the past decade. This year is the third time Prabowo has run for president and he has become increasingly good at it, striking a chord with a large part of the population that believes Indonesia needs a commanding, decisive leader.

Critics fear that Prabowo, who has romanticised the old order, could pose a threat to Indonesia's democratic progress, but he had plenty of support at the ballot boxes. On election day his supporters pointed to political instability, such as in the Middle East, to argue that a nation strung across 17,000 islands needs a strong, unifying leader like Prabowo.

"Indonesia is so big and spread out, and there are so many ethnicities and cultures, we need someone firm, with a lot of knowledge," said Anastasia Heni, as she waited to vote in the Jakarta heat.

Prabowo's unwillingness to concede has raised concerns that his team is trying to sow confusion and manipulate the official vote count in his favour. "There are rumours all over the place," said Eva Kusuma Sundari, a Jokowi campaign spokesperson. "It is really clear they are trying to push up their numbers in their own territories... because they have the structure there to manipulate the votes."

Sporadic cases of manipulated votes and tampered numbers are already flowing in to the Jokowi volunteers' hotline. In one village in the Prabowo stronghold of Madura, for example, Jokowi did not receive a single vote. "That is impossible," said Sundari, "because Jokowi volunteers and their families voted there."

Speaking after Friday prayers, Prabowo spokesperson Tantowi Yahya said it was the first he had heard of such claims. "We have fully committed ourselves to respect the rules of law, we don't interfere with the process," he said. "Like Pak [sir] Prabowo has always been saying, in this competition we are ready to win and we are ready to lose."

Hashim Djojohadikusumo, the billionaire brother of Prabowo who is financing the campaign, told journalists that the other side had "hijacked democracy" by declaring victory so soon.

If the majority of credible quick counts were accurate this time – as numerous analysts say they are – manipulating the vote to secure a win for Prabowo would involve a co-ordinated and systematic effort to change up to 5% of the vote, or more than 7 million ballot papers; Jokowi monitors admit there is nothing to suggest that is the case. Still, both camps have urged supporters to guard the ballot boxes, which change hands at least five times between village and national level. Far more than with any other election in the past, this one has seen Indonesians increasingly determined to ensure that their elections are free and fair.

On election day, voters loitered at polling booths to take photos of the final tally and post it on social media networks. A new app called iWitness has been developed so that local results can be cross-checked by the national body. The Jokowi campaign team has set up hotlines so that citizens can phone in reported violations. The formidable Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) has also warned that it will crack down on collusion to rig votes. "This is a matter of the nation at large," said KPK spokesperson Johan Budi. "Do not mess around, as the KPK does not sleep."

Outgoing president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono summoned both candidates to his private residence for talks on Wednesday, telling them to refrain from celebrating and wait for the official 22 July result. For now, with each side pledging confidence in their numbers, the country is in a political deadlock. Sundari, from the Jokowi campaign team, said she is at least cheered by one small breakthrough.

"As of last night, our monitors will be allowed in to watch the counts from the village to the national level," she said. "Before, that was impossible. Indonesia is holding its breath."

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/12/indonesia-presidential-election-joko-wiwodo-prabowo-subianto

False sums, empty recap forms found in early data

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Hans Nicholas Jong, Headlines – After two days of recapitulation from polling stations, recapitulation documents scanned and uploaded on the General Elections Commission's (KPU) website have shown several tally irregularities.

Recapitulation documents, also known as C1 forms, with empty numbers of votes for both the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa and Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla presidential tickets, have shown up at polling stations in Selabatu subdistrict (Sukabumi, West Java), Meruya Selatan (West Jakarta) and Bunyu Barat (Bulungan, East Kalimantan).

False sums occurred at polling stations in Parang Tambung (Makassar), Kelapa Dua (Tangerang, Banten), Sumur Batu (Central Jakarta) and Rawasari (Central Jakarta).

The irregular documents were retrieved from pilpres2014.kpu.go.id/c1.php and compiled on 1yanganeh.tumblr.com.

People's Synergy for Democracy in Indonesia (Sigma) director Said Salahuddin said on Friday that while the KPU had set up a vote tally system to ensure that the recapitulation was free from any vote rigging, the process was still full of loopholes.

"The system is relatively secure. Now it is only a matter of the quality of the election organizers – how they make this process transparent and involve the public," he told The Jakarta Post.

Salahuddin pointed out that some election witnesses did not have enough knowledge about how to properly monitor the vote tallying. "Oftentimes they only take notes on the result of the vote count. But they actually need to have the ability to raise objections through the provided forms," he said.

Partnership for Government Reform (Kemitraan) election specialist Wahidah Suaib also said that election witnesses were not adequately prepared. "They don't understand the rules. Once they do file a protest, the protest is often baseless," the former Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) member said.

Due to the lack of qualified election witnesses, Salahuddin urged the public to keep a close eye on the recapitulation process. "There needs to be more significant public participation, especially during the vote tabulation at the lower administrative levels," he said.

Salahuddin explained that, while common folk did not have the right to state their complaints or findings during the meeting of the vote tallying process, they could inform election witnesses or election observers.

The public's participation was also limited by technical difficulties, such as the inability of the KPU to upload all C1 forms to its website and the lack of space in rooms during the vote count, he added.

Responding to the criticism, KPU commissioner Ida Budhiati said that the election organizer had improved its vote-counting procedures based on its experiences during the legislative election, such as by temporarily dismissing unruly officers and coordinating with the regency-level Elections Supervisory Committees (Panwaslu).

The official vote count started at each polling station during voting day on Wednesday. From July 10 to 12, the Subdistrict Polling Committees (PPSs) will be responsible for reviewing the vote count at the subdistrict level before the District Polling Committees (PPKs) review the count again from July 13 to 15.

The next recapitulation at the regency and city level will take place on July 16 and 17 before the Provincial General Elections Commissions (KPUDs) review the votes on July 18 and 19. The KPU is scheduled to oversee a final recapitulation of votes from July 20 to 22.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/12/false-sums-empty-recap-forms-found-early-data.html

All eyes on KPU as vote count gets under way

Jakarta Globe - July 12, 2014

Anastasia Winanti Riesardhy & Farouk Arnaz, Jakarta – With both presidential candidates claiming victory in Wednesday's election based on quick counts, and the deciding official results only expected on July 22, both camps have assigned officials and volunteers to keep a close eye on the vote-counting process from the ward level up.

Muhaimin Iskandar, the chairman of the National Awakening Party, or PKB, one of those that endorsed Joko Widodo, reminded party members on Thursday that the fact that eight of 12 pollsters conducting a quick count had called the election for Joko should not lull them into a sense of contentment.

"The very crucial stage of the process has only just begun," he said. "We call on all our members to report every finding of violations or fraud [in the counting process] to local election supervisory committees and police in their respective regions."

Muhaimin made the call just a day after an estimated 72 percent of Indonesia's 190 million eligible voters went to polling stations nationwide to cast their vote. Two-thirds of the quick counts conducted after voting put Joko ahead of rival Prabowo Subianto by five to seven percentage points.

Four pollsters, however, called the vote for Prabowo, by a narrower margin of around one to three percentage points. The differing sets of quick counts prompted both candidates to declare victory on Wednesday.

Prabowo's former commander in the military, Wiranto, who now chairs the People's Conscience Party, or Hanura, said he had also ordered his party faithful to carefully monitor the ongoing vote count.

"We discussed [activities] to safeguard the tally from the ward level all the way to the central level," Wiranto, whose party is part of Joko's coalition, said after a meeting with the candidate's running mate, Jusuf Kalla, as reported by Vivanews.co.id. "Some regions need intensive safeguarding," he added, although he declined to elaborate.

Hasto Kristiyanto, a spokesman for Joko's campaign team, said they had assigned officials and volunteers to gather copies of the C1 form, the piece of paper summarizing the vote count from each polling station. It also includes the number of eligible voters registered at each polling station and the number of invalid ballots cast.

Because the final vote count is heavily dependent on the figures presented in the C1 forms, observers say any attempt to rig the outcome would have to include manipulating the forms.

Fadli Zon, a deputy chairman of Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, said Prabowo's campaign team had set up a special unit responsible for collecting the tallies based on copies of the C1 forms collected by its observers at polling stations across the country.

"We have a data tabulation center that accumulates the counts from observers spread across Indonesia, based on the C1 forms," Fadli said.

He added his camp was preparing to publish the collated data to counter the pollsters who called the election for Joko. "A team from the PKS [Prosperous Justice Party] is preparing for that," Fadli said as quoted by Vivanews.co.id, referring to one of three Islamic parties in the coalition. "Our plan is to update the real-count data regularly."

The official process

Officials from the government bodies in charge of the real vote count – the General Elections Commission, or KPU, and the Elections Supervisory Body, or Bawaslu – met in Jakarta on Thursday to discuss measures to ensure there was no manipulation of the ongoing tally.

Bawaslu chairman Muhammad identified the count at the ward and subdistrict levels as being "the most prone" to violations, although he added that Bawaslu had anticipated that by assigning teams to polling stations, comprising "impartial" volunteers to do the task under the "One Million Volunteers Movement" program that it rolled out earlier this year.

"It's most prone at these levels because [the election] is organized by ad hoc officials, thus there's a fairly large potential for intervention by individuals," Muhammad told reporters after Thursday's meeting.

"That is not to say there is no indication for potential fraud at the district/municipal and provincial level. We're therefore doing more than just technical safeguarding," he added.

After votes are counted at each polling station, the ballots are sent to the respective ward office where they are counted again and checked against the figures given on the C1 forms. The ballots and forms are then collected at the subdistrict level where the process is repeated, and again at the district/municipal level and then the provincial level.

In the final stage, the provincial tallies are sent to the KPU headquarters in Jakarta for the national recap. Bawaslu has assigned officials and volunteers to monitor each stage of the vote count.

The whole process takes two weeks, with the KPU expected to announce the final results of the election by July 22.

KPU chairman Husni Kamil Manik said some provinces were more vulnerable to violations and disputes than others, including West and East Java, North Maluku and East Nusa Tenggara, among others. Some constituencies in these provinces have had to schedule a re-vote because there were not enough ballots to go around during the election on Wednesday.

He added that the KPU and Bawaslu had agreed to resolve all disputes at the lowest level of the count so that it would not amplify.

Police, KPK participation

The police have also been deployed to safeguard the counting process, says National Police Chief Gen. Sutarman, starting from polling stations all the way to the recap at the national level.

"We've secured the polling stations and made our own records of the counts at the stations, although we weren't able to cover all 478,000 polling stations with our 254,000 officers," Sutarman said.

The Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK, also said it was keeping a close eye on the process, especially given the potential for bribery of elections officials to doctor the vote count.

"We're calling on organizers and participants of the presidential election against playing with the fate of hundreds of millions of people. The KPK is not asleep," KPK spokesman Johan Budi said on Thursday. "If any member of the public knows or obtains information of a possible conspiracy between election participants and the KPU, the KPK will look into it."

[Additional reporting by Markus Junianto Sihaloho, Rizky Amelia & Yeremia Sukoyo.]

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/eyes-kpu-vote-count-gets-way/

KPK, Komnas HAM urge public to scrutinize tally process

Jakarta Globe - July 12, 2014

Yeremia Sukoyo, Rizky Amelia & Markus Junianto Sihaloho, Jakarta – Two of Indonesia's preeminent reform organizations have called for citizens to be vigilant against electoral fraud in the tallying of presidential voting returns.

Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) deputy chairman Bambang Widjojanto said that the public needed to take up scrutinizing positions to oversee election committees and prevent tampering.

"The KPK sees the need for election committees along with the public to be cautious about the possibility of certain election officials engaging in corruption and collusion," Bambang said on Friday. Election officials may commit fraud for various reasons, he warned.

"There are risks that money politics could be used to influence election committee members," Bambang said. "There are indications of intimidation, conflicts of interest and money politics, all of which can lead to fraud and manipulation of the presidential election result," he said.

Meanwhile, the National Commission for Human Rights (Komnas HAM) warned that electoral fraud is both a crime and an assault on the sovereignty of the people, and hence a violation of human rights.

"The votes which were cast on July 9 reflect the constitutional right of the people to exercise their democratic choice. We have to respect this right," Komnas HAM commissioner Natalius Pigai said in Jakarta on Friday.

Therefore, Natalius said, it is the duty of the General Elections Commission (KPU) and Elections Supervisory Body to ensure that the process of vote tallying runs transparently, openly and is based on authentic polling station returns sheets (form C1).

The commissioner praised the smooth and peaceful conduct of the presidential election, which he attributed to cooperation between all elements of government and civil society, including the neutrality of the Indonesian Military and National Police in maintaining order and security.

Natalius said the Indonesian people are supervising the vote tallying process, which will be finalized by 22 July and called on the National Police to take firm action against any who attempt to tamper with the final result.

"Komnas HAM wants to remind everyone that the right to a vote is an irreplaceable human right," he said. "Let's respect this last phase of the presidential election. The president-elect and vice president-elect cannot be subverted by anyone."

Former KPU commissioner I Gusti Putu Artha proposed seven steps to prevent fraud during the vote tallying process.

"First of all, make sure that the polling station witness is holding C1, D1, DA1, DB1, and DC 1 forms that have integrally printed holograms, not stuck-on holograms on them," Putu Artha said in a press conference on Friday.

Secondly, I Gusti said, ensure scrutiny at every level prone to money politics. Third, take pictures or video documentation of the tally sheets at every level and compare them with scans posted online at http://pilpres2014.kpu.go.id/c1.php.

Fourth, look out for abuse of power by local officials who may attempt to influence village and ward chiefs to allocate votes to a certain candidate. Fifth, watch out for potential large-scale data manipulation in politically homogenous areas.

Sixth, continue to guard ballot boxes during their transport from polling stations at villages, onwards to wards, districts and provinces.

"Seventh, help security officers guard ballot boxes in locations where they are kept to prevent unauthorized people from accessing them until the Constitutional Court [issues a ruling on] any election disputes [PHPU]," I Gusti said.

"The people have to do this in order to ensure a transparent general election with integrity," the former KPU commissioner said.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/kpk-komnas-ham-urge-public-scrutinize-tally-process/

Bawaslu makes light of Prabowo's complaint

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Hans Nicholas Jong, Jakarta – After being ridiculed by the public for using dubious pollsters to back up its claim of winning the July 9 presidential election, the camp of the Gerindra Party-led Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa presidential ticket reported two pollsters that released results indicating a win for the rival ticket to the Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) on Friday.

Echoing a statement from Prabowo, lawyers accused the two pollsters of fabricating their quick count results in favor of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle's (PDI-P) presidential ticket of Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and Jusuf Kalla. Bawaslu, however, pointed out that it could not do much to accommodate such a complaint.

M. Maulana, a member of the team advocating for Prabowo, insisted that the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) and the Cyrus Network were siding with Jokowi. Therefore, he said, they had provided the public with false information to damage Jokowi's rival.

"We lament this siding because surveys and quick counts are a form of public participation, which should educate people, not make a fool of the public by providing inaccurate data," he said before filing the report at Bawaslu headquarters in Thamrin, Central Jakarta.

According to Maulana, the SMRC is not independent, as its founder, Saiful Mujani, publicly admitted that he was campaigning against the candidacy of Prabowo. "It is clear that Saiful Mujani has a conflict of interest in conducting a quick count," he said.

Maulana then pointed the finger at the Cyrus Network. "The Cyrus Network was a consultant of Jokowi during the Jakarta gubernatorial election in 2012," he said. "It is very likely that the Cyrus Network became the consultant of Jokowi again in this presidential election."

In contrast, the Strategic Development and Policy Research Center (Puskaptis), the Indonesia Votes Network (JSI) and the National Survey Institute (LSN) sparked public outrage because they declared Prabowo the winner of the presidential race, while credible pollsters such as the SMRC and Cyrus concluded that Jokowi had won the tight race.

Commenting on the report, Bawaslu commissioner Nelson Simanjuntak said that the agency had nothing to do with pollsters. "The case is more related to the survey institutions' ethical codes. We cannot meddle in that. How can we prove that the quick-count results favored [a particular candidate]?" he said at his office.

Nelson said that even if the pollsters were found guilty of bias, then the worst scenario would be for them to be not included on the list of pollsters allowed by the General Elections Commission (KPU) to release quick-count results to the public. "But that would be useless, since they already released their quick-count results," Nelson explained.

Also on Friday, Jokowi's advocacy team reported a number of violations from voting day, including vote-buying, to Bawaslu.

A member of the team, Vera, said that they had found cases of voters receiving money in envelopes prior to voting in Bogor, as well as Cijambu subdistrict in Cianjur, both in West Java.

"Before voting, a voter named Susanti [in Cianjur] was given Rp 150,000 in an envelope," she said. The envelope reportedly had an image of Prabowo and Hatta on it.

Besides vote-buying, the advocacy team also reported a case of a ballot being annulled in South Jakarta because a voter punched a hole that was too big, even though the hole was still inside the box for Jokowi.

According to the advocacy team, there were a total of 19 violations reported to Bawaslu, complete with evidence such as eyewitness statements and video.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/12/bawaslu-makes-light-prabowo-s-complaint.html

Pollsters face threats as quick-counts stoke division

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Hasyim Widhiarto and Yuliasri Perdani, Jakarta – Several Indonesian pollsters were on the receiving end of threats and intimidation on Friday allegedly due to their opposing findings regarding the outcome of the recent presidential election.

Pol-Tracking Institute public relations and program manager Agung Baskoro said the pollster's headquarters in Setiabudi, South Jakarta, began receiving suspicious phone calls early on Friday.

"The phone in our office kept ringing starting at 1 a.m. Friday morning. No one, however, picked up, since it is very unusual for us to receive a phone call that early," Agung told The Jakarta Post. "Our office guards also reported two strangers standing in front of our office. That was very unusual."

The Setiabudi police, according to Agung, warned Pol-Tracking later in the day about a potential attack on its office. "But we decided to work normally," he said, adding that several Setiabudi police officers had been deployed to help keep the office secure.

Pol-Tracking Institute is among several established pollsters that on Wednesday, according to the results of its quick-counts, announced the victory of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician and non-active Jakarta Governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo in the July 9 presidential elections.

Other pollsters crowing Jokowi the winner included Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), Indikator Politik Indonesia, the Indonesian Circle Survey (LSI) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies – Cyrus Network.

Indikator Politik Indonesia executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi told tempo.co that the Jakarta Police had deployed on Friday a dozen officers to guard its headquarters in Menteng, Central Jakarta, even though the pollster had yet to receive any threats. "We appreciate this [police initiative]," Burhanuddin said.

A separate threat was directed at the Indonesia Votes Network (JSI), whose quick-count results suggested the victory of the Gerindra Party chief patron and presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, Jokowi's only rival.

According to Jakarta Police spokesman Sr. Comr. Rikwanto, an unidentified person threw a Molotov cocktail at the JSI office on Jl. Warung Jati, South Jakarta, at 1 a.m. on Friday. The cocktail, however, failed to explode. "The bottle contains gasoline connected to a wick. However, the wick failed to burn," he told reporters.

Rikwanto said that IZ, a 75-year-old security officer who was patrolling the office during night shift, heard the sound of a glass bottle rolling on concrete floor. Upon hearing the sound, he searched the basement and found the unexploded bomb. He then immediately called the police.

"Currently, we are searching for the perpetrators," Rikwanto said, adding that the police had so far identified no witnesses in the case.

Both Jokowi and Prabowo have claimed victory in the presidential election, anchoring their cases to quick-count data gathered by different pollsters. While the Jokowi's camp quoted pollsters with established track records of credibility, the Prabowo camp cited data from questionable polling agencies, including the JSI, the National Survey Institute (LSN) and Puskaptis, which relied on dubious quick-count methodology.

The Indonesian Broadcasting Commission (KPI) called on all broadcasters on Friday to stop viewing quick-count results from all pollsters and victory claims from both camps since they had ignited conflicts in public.

"[The results] have built many public perceptions toward the election. Early victory claims can be taken as provocations or public lies," said KPI chairman Judhariksawan.

KPI will recommend license withdrawal to the Communication and Information Ministry for any broadcaster that still insists on publishing the sensitive materials, he said.

To prevent attacks targeting pollsters, the Jakarta Police has instructed officers on the sub-district level to conduct regular patrols around the pollsters' offices.

"They have exchanged phone numbers, so the security officers can easily make contact if any incident occurs. If the pollsters need police officers guarding their offices, we can fulfill that request," he added. (alz)

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/12/pollsters-face-threats-quick-counts-stoke-division.html

Prabowo lashes out at journalists

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Jakarta – Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto scolded a number of journalists, from online to television, when he was about to be interviewed in his house in Bogor, West Java, just after he cast his vote.

"[online media] Berita Satu is not fair. It is harsh, just like The Jakarta Globe. The Jakarta Globe is cruel," Prabowo said on Wednesday as quoted by tribunnews.com.

A bit annoyed, a Berita Satu female journalist decided to show no reaction and waited for what would happen next. Fortunately, Prabowo was willing to go ahead with the interview.

Prabowo also scolded reporters from other stations, such as Kompas TV and Metro TV.

"Metro TV is cruel. What sins I have committed that makes Surya Paloh [NasDem Party chairman and Metro TV owner] very cruel to me? Your coverage is not balanced. If you do not want to be hurt, you cannot hurt others. Every religion teaches that value," he said.

"I have never done anything to Surya Paloh. Are you willing to ask Surya Paloh?"

"I have a lot of people behind me, supporting me. If I ask them not to watch Metro TV, that would be the end of your company. The same goes for Kompas, Berita Satu and Tempo," he continued.

He then asked every journalist who had interviewed him to return to their offices, saying "Those who have interviewed me can leave now. This is my home." (nfo)

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/09/prabowo-angry-journalists.html

Jokowi meets foreign press as fraud fears loom

Jakarta Post - July 11, 2014

Haeril Halim, Jakarta – Presidential frontrunner Joko "Jokowi" Widodo met on Thursday with dozens of foreign journalists and correspondents in Jakarta in his first post-election press conference one day after credible quick counts confirmed his victory in Wednesday's election over opponent Prabowo Subianto.

"I truly thank you for the generous reporting you have done on our campaign and for our country. You have helped Indonesia become known by the world as a strong pillar of democracy. Thank you again," Jokowi said in English during the press conference.

Jokowi continued his short speech during the press conference in Indonesian. "I want to emphasize to the public that our job does not stop after yesterday's election. Now we are entering the more important post- election phase."

Jokowi said that despite Wednesday's election quick-count results, the public should remain calm and united while votes were tabulated by the General Elections Commission (KPU), which is expected to announce the official election results on July 22.

"I call on all parties not to besmirch people's victory in yesterday's election. Yesterday's victory was not a mobilized victory, but purely the victory of people's aspirations," Jokowi said.

Jokowi added that with their election coverage, international media outlets as well as local media had helped Indonesia write a new page in history.

After the short press conference, Jokowi sat down for interviews with around 30 foreign journalists and correspondents. Before the interviews, Jokowi allowed all the foreign journalists and correspondents to take photographs with him in front of the media center.

On Thursday night, Jokowi left for Metro TV studios to speak on a talk show about being named president-elect by a number of credible surveys.

During the talk show, host Najwa Shihab asked him whether he had the intention of meeting with rival Prabowo, who also declared himself the winner, based on a number of quick counts whose results were described by the Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys (Persepi) as "questionable".

"I haven't had a chance to talk to Pak Prabowo," Jokowi replied. Najwa then asked him: "Are you willing to phone him to have a word?" Jokowi then said, "Let's see how things develop. He is a good friend and he is a statesman in my eyes."

Meanwhile, Prabowo urged his supporters not to stage rallies to celebrate his declared victory.

Head of Prabowo's presidential campaign team, Mahfud MD, said on Thursday that Prabowo supporters must wait until the General Elections Commission (KPU) announced the final result of the election to publicly celebrate their victory.

"Even if we lose, we will accept it. It is a must since the [KPU] result is official," Mahfud, a former constitutional court chief justice, said on Thursday.

Prabowo also told supporters to stay calm and alert on Wednesday. "We will be patient. We will follow all procedures. We will obey the law. We will try to behave. But don't think that we are weak," the former three-star general cautioned.

Meanwhile, The Associated Press reported that with both candidates continuing to claim victory, the next leader of the world's third-largest democracy could be decided in court.

The election commission, which began tallying the votes, will produce the official results by July 22. But if either candidate refutes the outcome due to evidence of fraud or other voting irregularities, the case will go to the Constitutional Court. The judges have two weeks to make a ruling after receiving complaints.

"The Jokowi camp is clearly worried that there will be fraud in the aggregation process," said Jakarta-based political analyst Paul Rowland.

Confidence in the Constitutional Court has also recently been shaken, though some are already predicting that's where Indonesia's next president will be decided

"Considering victory claims from both candidates, it seems difficult to avoid a legal battle at the Constitutional Court," said Denny Indrayana, deputy minister of Law and Human Rights.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/11/jokowi-meets-foreign-press-fraud-fears-loom.html

Aburizal in peril following Jokowi's win

Jakarta Post - July 11, 2014

Margareth S. Aritonang, Headlines – The presumptive victory of Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and his running mate Jusuf Kalla in the July 9 presidential election has put Aburizal Bakrie's leadership of the Golkar Party at risk, with members of the party's central board and regional chapters calling for a national congress (Munas) to elect a new chairman ahead of schedule.

A Golkar congress in 2009 gave Aburizal the party leadership until the party's next scheduled congress to elect a new chairman in 2015.

Many on the central board and in the regional chapters seem poised to unseat Aburizal before his term expires, perhaps to clear the way for inroads into the putative Jokowi administration.

"Many of us actually regretted his [Aburizal's] decision to support the candidacy of Prabowo [Subianto]. The quick count results from trusted pollsters show that Jokowi-Kalla is leading and this has lent more credence to our call to unseat [Aburizal]," Golkar politician Poempida Hidayatulloh said Thursday.

Poempida, one of three Golkar lawmakers who were stripped of their positions on key commissions in the House of Representatives for declaring support for Jokowi and Kalla in the presidential election, said those opposition to Aburizal expected Golkar would have a new chairman before October so the party could move to join the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle's (PDI-P) ruling coalition.

Separately, another dissident within Golkar, Nusron Wahid, the leader of the youth wing of Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Gerakan Pemuda (GP) Ansor, expressed his confidence that the victory of Jokowi and Kalla would bring significant change to Golkar.

"Golkar has no history of standing against the power. We have never been in opposition. So, Golkar will inevitably join the coalition of the next government. Therefore, expediting the national congress is a must," Nusron said.

If the plot to unseat Aburizal succeeds and a pro-Jokowi faction takes control of the party, Golkar would likely join the PDI-P and its coalition partners – the NasDem Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Hanura Party – in the ruling government. With Golkar in the coalition, it is expected that a Jokowi administration would have a majority in the House.

Kalla, who remains an official member of Golkar, has also expressed his confidence that the party would become part of the next government. "Politics is dynamic and very fluid. We can easily adapt to a new situation."

A coup against Aburizal would not be the first time Golkar underwent a change in leadership to join a new government.

In 2004, Golkar joined the Democratic Party-led coalition, which nominated the candidacy of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Kalla, after then Golkar chairman Wiranto and his running mate Salahuddin Wahid lost the presidential contest. Supporters of Kalla managed to oust Wiranto and install Kalla as his successor.

In the 2009 election, the party also switched from nominating a Kalla- Wiranto ticket to joining the coalition of Yudhoyono, who won a second term. Kalla was ousted by Aburizal following his defeat in the presidential election.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/11/aburizal-peril-following-jokowi-s-win.html

SBY's stance favors Prabowo: Imparsial

Jakarta Post - July 11, 2014

Yuliasri Perdani, Jakarta – Human rights watchdog Imparsial has lambasted President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for not taking into consideration the quick-count results of credible pollsters that have confirmed the victory of the Joko "Jokowi" Widodo-Jusuf Kalla ticket.

Imparsial executive director Poengky Indarti said on Thursday that Yudhoyono's stance was peculiar and tended to benefit Jokowi's contender, Prabowo Subianto, who received an endorsement from Yudhoyono's Democratic Party.

"We urge SBY [Yudhoyono] to act like the President and not as a political party leader. [His decisions] tend to benefit presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto," she said after a meeting at National Police headquarters in South Jakarta.

Poengky pointed out that during the April 9 legislative election, Yudhoyono immediately conceded his party's poor showing after observing the quick- count result of Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).

SMRC and at least six other pollsters announced hours after voting closed on Wednesday that Jokowi had taken the lead with an average of 52 percent of the vote. On the contrary, three pollsters believed to be financed by Prabowo's camp called Prabowo the winner.

Responding to the contradictory results, Yudhoyono has called on both camps to exercise restraint and wait for the official result from the General Elections Commission (KPU), due no later than July 22.

"In the previous election, he confirmed that the Democratic Party was on the decline [based on SMRC's quick count]. So, why did he respond differently to SMRC's quick count this time?" Poengky quipped.

At the National Police headquarters, Poengky and some NGO representatives met with National Police deputy chief Comr. Gen. Badrodin Haiti to discuss the force's measures to prevent vote-rigging that may occur in the vote tabulation process at the regional level.

"We urge the police to keep a close eye on the transport of results from the polling stations to the KPU office," Poengky said.

Abdullah Dahlan of the Indonesian Corruption Watch (ICW) found that vote tabulations at city and provincial levels were prone to manipulation.

"We have found indications of vote-rigging attempts in several regions, such as Bangkalan [in Madura, East Java], West Jakarta and Depok [on West Java]. For instance, at the subdistrict level, some changes had been made on a number of unused ballots," Abdullah said.

Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras) coordinator Haris Azhar received reports that some local leaders had allegedly intimidated local election committee members to tamper with election results.

"We ask the police to provide protection to local election committee members who are prone to intimidation," Haris said.

Responding to the demands, National Police spokesman Insp. Gen. Ronny F. Sompie was upbeat that the force's 254,000 personnel, with the help from 23,000 military officers, would be able to safeguard the vote tabulation process.

"Our members guarding polling stations have taken pictures of the voting results. The pictures could serve as evidence should electoral disputes arise," he said, adding that the police had no intention of making the pictures public or to use them for quick-count purposes.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/11/sby-s-stance-favors-prabowo-imparsial.html

Questions mount over 'rogue' quick count results

Jakarta Globe - July 11, 2014

Markus Junianto Sihaloho, Jakarta – Observers have questioned the credibility of four pollsters who called Wednesday's presidential election for Prabowo Subianto by the narrowest of margins, as seven other quick counts gave Joko Widodo a slightly bigger lead.

"We can't let this difference between the quick counts cause political turbulence and undermine our democracy," Rudi Rohi, a political expert at Nusa Cendana University in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, told the Jakarta Globe on Thursday.

The Indonesia Research Center (IRC), the Indonesian Voter Network (JSI), the Center for Policy Studies and Strategic Development (Puskaptis) and the National Survey Institute (LSN) all put Prabowo in the lead with 50 to 52 percent of the vote against 48 to 49 percent for Joko.

However, other pollsters, including Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC); Radio Republik Indonesia (RRI); the Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI); the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Cyrus Network; Kompas; and the Indonesian Political Indicator (IPI) gave Joko 52 to 53 percent and Prabowo 47 to 49 percent.

Rudi said it was clear that some pollsters were working on commission, but declined to elaborate.

"They're being used for political interests, so they manipulate the truth," he said. "The professionalism and credibility of a polling institution and its employees should never be sacrificed for private or group interests. As hard or as bitter as the truth is, it needs to be conveyed," he added.

He called on people to closely monitor the vote counting and verification process to ensure that the election was not "stolen" because of the falsified quick counts.

"Poll organizers, monitors and the police must be firm in cracking down on any effort to undermine the results of the election," Rudi said. "The press must also be honest in its reporting about the voting. Without this, I fear that the election and our democracy will be targeted by greed and political interests."

Prabowo's camp has cast doubt on the quick counts that called the election for Joko, but observers pointed out that the pollsters in question were among the more reputable ones.

"How can [seven] polling institutes manipulate the results of their quick counts, one of which happens to be RRI?" said Ari Dwipayana, a political expert at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta.

He said what was even more questionable was the decision by a 12th pollster, the Poltracking Institute, to recuse itself from the quick counts after putting Joko ahead by 53 percent to Prabowo's 46 percent.

"This was an institute that was contracted by TVOne, which has tended [to support] Prabowo," Ari said. TVOne is owned by the family of Aburizal Bakrie, the Golkar Party chairman and one of Prabowo's main supporters.

Ari said the pollsters that had called the election for Joko had a solid track record going back to the 2004 election. RRI in particular, he said, was a state-owned body and thus was bound to be neutral.

He said the four other pollsters would not have found in favor of Prabowo if they had been "consistent in applying their methodology and abiding with the principles of an unbiased surveyor.

Ari said the fact that they had come out with different results should alert the authorities about the urgency of auditing rogue or mercenary polling agencies.

"If we don't do that, then these polling agencies will continue to be a tool of political propaganda, used to fool the people by those who fear losing," he said.

Hamdi Muluk, the head of the ethics council of the Association of Indonesian Public Opinion Surveyors (persepi), said it was clear that the pollsters whose quick counts showed a Joko victory were the more credible ones. "If seven pollsters say A won and four say B won, then it's most probable that A won," he said.

He added that Persepi had issued letters to all the polling institutes that carried out a quick count to explain their data collection and methodology. He said he hoped to release the results of the audit to the public within a week.

"The methodology for a quick count is standardized, really. It all boils down to the margin of error. The more polling stations are counted, the smaller the margin of error," Hamdi said. "We want to make sure through this upcoming audit that they got it right."

Aleksius Jemadu, a political analyst at Pelita Harapan University, emphasized the importance of looking at each polling company's track record to discern their credibility. "It comes down to the company's reputation and credibility," Aleksius said.

Similarly, Andrinof Chaniago, a political analyst at the University of Indonesia, singled out the firms whose data supported a Prabowo victory as being "dubious" agencies, in an apparent reference to Puskaptis, whose director, Husin Yazid, was taken into police custody last year after the firm released questionable quick count results for the South Sumatra gubernatorial election.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/questions-mount-rogue-quick-count-results/

Indonesia election: Prabowo comes out swinging in votes dispute

Sydney Morning Herald - July 11, 2014

Michael Bachelard, Jakarta – Prabowo Subianto's team has come out swinging in Indonesia's disputed presidential election, insisting it is ahead in the "real count" of votes, its opponents are trying to "hijack" democracy, and that it will never concede defeat before the final result is in.

The comments dispel earlier indications that the Prabowo camp may be backing away from its victory claim. It lays the ground for a series of aggressive political and legal challenges to the result to be announced by the Election Commission on July 22.

However, anybody hoping to organise mass protests or riots on the streets will be hampered by the holy month of Ramadan and the Idul Fitri holiday, Indonesia's biggest. Many people will start returning to their villages on or shortly after July 23.

Mr Prabowo's brother and campaign manager, billionaire businessman Hashim Djojohadikusumo, insisted his team had access to its own "real count" of votes showing that by 5pm on Thursday the former army strongman was winning 51.67 per cent of the vote.

Mr Hashim said the latest figures sent by his coalition's operatives in the field to the "Prabowo-Hatta National Tabulation Centre" showed his brother with 43.9 million votes and Mr Joko with 40.1 million votes.

The numbers are not official figures, but Mr Hashim said they were drawn from scrutineers' accounts of official Election Commission documents called "C1" forms.

But the head of counting for Mr Joko's party, PDI-P, hit back with his own "real count" figures also based on scrutineers' copies of official forms.

Jarot Saeful Hidayat said that, with over half the votes counted, Mr Joko was ahead with 53.24 per cent support. In Jakarta, where all the votes had already been counted, Mr Joko had won 53.94 per cent, showing "most people want him to be president, not just governor", Mr Jarot said.

But Mr Hashim said late on Thursday his side also claimed victory, and was "philosophically opposed" to conceding defeat. It would wait for the Electoral Commission's ruling due on July 22, which is then subject to another month of appeals.

Meanwhile, Mr Hashim said he was "quite worried" about Mr Joko's camp cheating and changing the final result. "One of the things that makes us have very little sleep at night is worrying about having our votes threatened," he said. "We are not the only guys with money."

Mr Joko has voiced similar concerns, repeatedly requesting that his supporters "guard" the count in Indonesia's 480,000 polling booths and throughout the tortuous collation process, in case unnamed people attempt to "besmirch" the result.

But Mr Hashim said those comments and the victory declaration itself were an attempt to "hijack" the election result. "Psychology experts have told me that [those comments] would incite people. If they were to be able to form the opinion among a lot of people in Indonesia that they were winning and then, if they were to lose [and claim it was] because of cheating by us... that's what I'd characterise as a hijacking of democracy," Mr Hashim said.

He also attacked the pollsters who had predicted a Jokowi victory, saying a number of them were "neither independent nor credible", and relating stories about how he himself had hired three in previous campaigns, paying "a lot of money" to them.

Of the pollsters on his team's side who have predicted a Prabowo victory, though, he claimed ignorance about their financial arrangements with his brother's coalition.

One of those companies, JSI, was subject to a failed attack early on Friday morning when a small Molotov cocktail was thrown at its headquarters but failed to explode.

Mr Joko said on Thursday he believed Mr Prabowo was "a statesman and he will accept the result after the [election commission] makes its declaration".

However, in a blog post on Thursday, ANU academics Marcus Mietzner and Ed Aspinall said unequivocally that Mr Joko had won, but they believed Mr Prabowo would try to "steal" the election.

He would fail, they wrote, because too many votes needed to change hands and because "the scale of the manipulation required means it will be relatively easy to detect".

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/indonesia-election-prabowo-comes-out-swinging-in-votes-dispute-20140711-zt3mz.html

In a vote with a single-digit margin, pollsters come under scrutiny

Jakarta Globe - July 10, 2014

Josua Gantan – Both presidential candidates Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo have declared themselves the winner of what had been the tightest presidential election in Indonesia's history on Wednesday.

"Based on quick count results by polling institutions we use as benchmarks, we have received a mandate from the people of Indonesia," Prabowo informed reporters at a televised press conference, triggering cheers from the political backers standing behind him, and sending an entire nation into confusion.

For less than an hour prior to the former lieutenant general's announcement, rival contender Joko had also claimed victory, citing preliminary data from several polling firms.

"We are grateful that the quick count results show Joko-Jusuf Kalla is the winner [of the election]," Joko told reporters and millions of citizens across the country glued to their television screens.

Armed with different quick count results – and choosing to pay heed to those in their own favor – both camps had stepped forward to claim the presidency.

Polarized pollsters

Of the numerous pollsters that conducted quick counts on Wednesday, as many as seven declared Joko victorious, while at least another four reported the opposite.

Aleksius Jemadu, a political analyst from Pelita Harapan University emphasized the importance of looking at each polling company's track record to discern their credibility. "It comes down to the company's reputation and credibility," Aleksius said.

In the same vein, political analyst from the University of Indonesia (UI) Adrinof Chaniago singled out the firms whose data had supported a Prabowo victory, calling them "dubious."

Adrinof may have been referring to the Center for Policy and Strategic Development (Puskaptis), whose director Husin Yazid was taken into police custody last year after the firm released questionable quick count results for the South Sumatra gubernatorial election.

Meanwhile, institutions placing Joko in the lead have proven themselves to be more consistent in delivering accurate election results, Aleksius added.

"Those [pollsters] whose data said Joko won, there is no doubt in their credibility; they are professional," Aleksius said. "[The polling companies' track records] account for the discrepancy in the results, I would say."

In the interest of fairness, Aleksius urged all survey institutes involved in the election to conduct their projections with a high-degree of transparency.

Political analyst from Gadjah Mada University Arie Sujito argued that the polls showing Joko winning give him a 5 percent lead, but those showing Prabowo leading give him just 2 percent lead.

Similarly, Andrinof suggested that if the General Elections Committee were to consolidate all of the quick count results, Joko would still be the clear winner.

"I am convinced that Joko-Kalla are the victors," he said, but condeded that the pair have won by a "slim margin." "Contradictory claims are to expected," Arie said, until KPU announces the official result on 22 July.

Until then, Indonesians will have to wait in anticipation.

Potential conflict

Aleksius said there was the potential for conflict in the wake of the election, despite the fact that past presidential elections since the fall of the strongman Suharto in 1998 had been generally conflict-free.

Several factors make things different this time around, including the fact that there are only two candidates running, whereas the 2004 and 2009 elections had five and three candidates, respectively.

In addition, Prabowo and Joko have been running neck-and-neck in recent opinion polls, giving each side a legitimate expectation of victory, Aleksius said.

"The problem is that in our previous elections, the margin between the winning and the losing candidates was considerably large. It was never neck-and-neck like today," he said.

He said the lack of conflicts on Wednesday belied the "real potential" for violent disputes if the political elites who refused to concede defeat chose to "stir dissent" among the people.

"At the grassroots level, I'm not worried. What I am worried about, though, are the elites who can make use of the people," he said. "The potential for conflict lies with these elites who are not mature enough to be democratic. It will be dangerous if they make statements that can trigger conflicts. They have to stay calm, not be provocative and not create controversy. We have to let the KPU settle the matter. The KPU's credibility is at stake here."

Arie agreed there was a possibility for politically engineered unrest. "Today's election was relatively peaceful, but we saw tensions rise following the conflicting claims to victory made by either side based on the quick counts," he said. "The people are mature enough, but it is the losing political elites who are not mature."

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/vote-single-digit-margin-quick-count-pollsters-come-close-scrutiny/

Victorious Jokowi hailed as hero of the people

Sydney Morning Herald - July 10, 2014

Michael Bachelard – All credible observers now agree that Joko Widodo has won the Indonesian presidential election and will be the first post-Suharto era ruler when he is sworn in on October 20.

Mr Joko, known as Jokowi, has been elected with about 52 per cent of the vote, according to six reliable quick count analyses of polling booth data.

His mandate is as a president for the orang kecil, or ordinary people. He has promised to attack corruption and cronyism, improve health, education and infrastructure, and focus on delivering services.

Mr Joko called a press conference on Thursday to say the job was not finished with his election, "in fact, much bigger duties await us now that the election is over".

He reiterated his call for the nation to "reunite" after the hard-fought campaign, and also that his supporters should "guard" the ballot papers until they arrive at the central election commission.

"The counting should be right, clean and without intervention from any party. Once again, I ask that nobody besmirches the result of the elections".

His opponent, Prabowo Subianto, is still claiming victory after Wednesday's poll, but he has reduced the stridency of his rhetoric and has urged his supporters to wait until official results are announced by the country's election commission on July 22.

"I think Prabowo is a statesman and he will accept the result after the [election commission] makes its declaration," Mr Joko said.

Mr Joko's claim for victory is based on the results of quick count companies including Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, LSI, CSIS-Cyrus and Indikator, all of which have a record of correctly predicting election outcomes and margins within a few decimal points.

Mr Prabowo's claim relies on companies LSN, JSI and Puskaptis, who have in the past returned false results based on what their sponsors have paid for. Two of the three are now under investigation by the Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys.

Outgoing president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono met both aspirants separately at his house late on election night. He declined to pick sides, and instructed both to keep calm and restrain their supporters from taking to the streets until official results are announced.

"Supporters from both camps must be prevented from inciting conflict or violence while waiting for... the official result," Dr Yudhoyono said. Mr Joko agreed to issue the instruction to his supporters, and Mr Prabowo said: "We are confident we have won... but we will accept the official count."

The streets of Jakarta were typically choked on Thursday – but with workers, not protesters, as the country returned to business.

Local media was split in its portrayal of the result. The Koran Tempo's headline read: "Jokowi is president 2014-2019", citing "credible survey agencies". The Jakarta Post headline was "A People's Victory".

Other newspapers, particularly Republika, which appeals to the pro-Islam voters who supported Mr Prabowo's coalition, gave more credence to the latter's claim of victory.

Some Indonesians have expressed concern Mr Prabowo might try to use the 12 days before official results are announced to threaten or bribe the election commission.

But Australian National University academic Marcus Mietzner, who is in Indonesia and has followed the election closely, says he is "quite optimistic, despite perhaps some tense weeks ahead of us, that at the end Jokowi will be declared the winner".

To sway the official count, Mr Prabowo would need to change four to six million votes and do so at the village and regional levels of the election commission.

"It would take a lot of money, which Prabowo has, and he'd have to try to bribe a very large number of people from the village to the national level of the KPU [election commission]," Dr Mietzner said.

However this would be difficult, and if the KPU came out with a completely different result to the quick counts, "we'd have turmoil in Indonesia".

"It would be [the riots of] 1998 all over again, with millions protesting against a stolen election," and there was no appetite in the courts, the legislature or in Dr Yudhoyono's camp for such an outcome, Dr Mietzner said.

After results are announced there will be a period for legal appeals which ends in late August.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/victorious-jokowi-hailed-as-hero-of-the-people-20140710-zt30g.html

Yudhoyono appeals for calm from both candidates as each declares victory

Jakarta Globe - July 9, 2014

Camelia Pasandaran, Jakarta – President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Wednesday appealed for calm from both camps in the presidential election, after each pair of candidates declared their ticket as the winner, setting up what could be a contentious period before official results are released less than two weeks from now.

Yudhoyono told reporters at the State Palace hours after the 1 p.m. close of the polling stations that the two presidential candidates must restrain themselves and not provoke conflict among themselves and their supporters. Official results from the General Election Commission (KPU) are due on July 22, and disputes can be taken up with the Constitutional Court soon after.

"Because both candidates declare that they won the election, we must wait for results from the General Election Commission because that will be the official result," the president said.

"Either candidate can take legal action after the KPU's announcement. In the meantime each of them must maintain peaceful conditions across the country. They have to be able to control their supporters so that they don't get involved in conflict or violence."

Joko Widodo declared himself and vice presidential running mate Jusuf Kalla as the winning ticket at around 2:30 p.m. as preliminary results from pollster Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting – whose director had supported Joko's candidacy – showed that Joko had won 52.76 percent of the votes, while rival Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa had 47.24 percent. At the time, the data were based on 85.2 percent of the votes counted.

Meanwhile, Prabowo also claimed victory in the election. According to tvOne's website, a quick count from Puskaptis showed that Prabowo-Hatta had 52.05 percent of the vote, compared to 47.95 percent for Joko-Kalla. TVOne is owned by Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie, who supports the Prabowo campaign.

Surveys leading up to the election suggested that the race would be close, with Joko's lead over Prabowo shrinking. Yudhoyono on Friday called for the National Police and the Indonesian Military (TNI) to boost security and to be aware of possible violations of the electoral process.

"Congratulations on a peaceful election," Yudhoyono said. "But our work is not yet done. There are days to come which we need to manage well. Besides the democratic election, our nation's security should be maintained. That's my request, not only for the presidential and vice president candidates, but also for all parties, to maintain an orderly situation."

"Indonesians who have been showing a good political attitude, who have been patient and participated [in the election], I hope you will be the fortress ... and prevent unwanted things," Yudhoyono added.

Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Djoko Suyanto in an address to the nation asked both sides not to allow their supporters to celebrate the victory on the streets, to prevent clashes.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/yudhoyono-appeals-for-calm-from-both-candidates-as-each-declares-victory/

Election win is a victory for Indonesians, Joko says

Jakarta Globe - July 9, 2014

Jakarta – Presidential candidate Joko Widodo, who claims victory in Wednesday's election, says this year's race opens a new chapter for Indonesia as people have decided to set a new direction for the country.

He said that based on preliminary results from credible polling stations, he and vice presidential running mate Jusuf Kalla were currently in the lead over rival Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Hatta Rajasa.

Joko had 52.98 percent of the votes, while Prabowo had 47.02 percent, according to results from pollster Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting. The data were based on 99.7 percent of the vote counted, and the margin of error was 0.62 percent. Altogether, seven polls called Joko as the leading candidate, while four listed Prabowo on top.

"We all want the better Indonesia whose people are healthy, smart, civilized, prosperous ... Today history has been made, this is a new chapter for Indonesia," he said, wearing his signature checkered shirt while speaking to a group of supporters at Tugu Proklamasi in Central Jakarta, a few hours after declaring victory.

"I want to firmly say that the victory that had been stated by the quick count results is not Jokowi and JK's victory, not the campaign team's, political parties' – but the victory of all of Indonesia. One more time, this is the victory of all Indonesians," Joko added.

The real victory, he said, came from the public's participation in the election. Indonesians are aware of their rights and obligations, and do not let themselves be intimidated, Joko added.

In April, 75 percent of voters turned out for the legislative election, and that ratio was higher for this presidential election, at 82 percent, according to a pollster cited by BeritaSatu.com – in what was viewed as a tight race. More than 190 million people were registered to vote in the nation's 34 provinces on Wednesday.

"The more important thing after the presidential election is to serve the people. Parties should unite and make Indonesia a better place," Joko said.

Joko also urged the public to wait for the official announcement from the General Election Commission (KPU) on July 22, when the official results are due. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had called for calm between both sides of the presidential tickets amid concern that supporters of either side might cause unrest.

"Do not taint the sincerity of the people's voice in today's election. I appreciate Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa for what they have contributed to democracy in Indonesia," Joko said.

He added that he respected the two men and called them statesmen, patriots and fighters for Indonesia. He also expressed his appreciation of the president, whose two-term limit ends in October.

"You have supervised and led the presidential election to run well all long," Joko said about Yudhoyono.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/election-win-victory-indonesians-joko-says/

Pollsters group to probe vote results of two that deviated from majority

Jakarta Globe - July 9, 2014

Camelia Pasandaran, Jakarta – The ethics council of a pollsters' group in Indonesia will begin an investigation into two polling stations that reported results on the presidential election that deviated from the majority.

The Indonesian Survey and Public Opinion Association (Persepi) will ask seven of its members that released preliminary results of the presidential election to publicly announce their methodology. It will also summon two polling institutions, Puskaptis (Center of Policy and Strategic Development) and the Indonesian Voting Network (JSI), both of which had results counter to the majority of pollsters.

"The audit result will be announced to the public in less than a week," Hamdi Muluk, a member of Persepi's ethics council, said at a press conference on Wednesday. "This needs to be done to prevent the democratic political process from being tainted by opportunist polling stations that manipulate data for certain political interests."

At least 10 pollsters conducted quick counts of the presidential elections. Of those, seven showed that presidential candidate Joko Widodo and his running mate Jusuf Kalla had a lead of 4 to 6 percentage points over rivals Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa. Three polls, meanwhile, showed that Prabowo and Hatta had a gain of 1 to 4 percentage points over the Joko- Kalla ticket.

Results from the polls have been used by both Joko and Prabowo to declare their victories.

Hamdi said that the result of the audit would be announced in less than a week, to prevent the results of the polling stations from affecting people's sentiments and further dividing the nation. "Logically, if there are 10 polling stations, of which seven said A, and three said B, then the majority that said A is right," Hamdi said.

Of 10 polling institutions that conducted the quick count, seven are members of Persepi. Hamdi said they could not investigate the National Survey Institution (LSN) – which also had results that deviated from the majority – because LSN is not a member.

Yunarto Wijaya, secretary of Persepi, said that the significant difference in the quick count result should be investigated to prevent chaos.

"Puskaptis has twice issued different results – which turned out to be the wrong result – on the gubernatorial election of South Sumatra. It created conflict, and the director was once caught by the police [after being accused of manipulating the results]," Yunarto said.

Andrinof Chaniago, another Persepi member, said that they would summon the two pollsters in order for them to clarify the different results. If anything suspicious is discovered, they would ask the pollsters to provide data for audit, before deciding whether they unintentionally made the mistake, or were intentionally lying to the public.

"We will check their methodology, their data, calling the field coordinators," Andrinof said. "We will also find out who funded their quick count. If the methodology is right, the result should not have been significantly different [from that of other pollsters]."

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/pollsters-group-probe-early-vote-results-two-deviated-majority/

Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo both claim victory in presidential poll

Sydney Morning Herald - July 9, 2014

Michael Bachelard, Jakarta – The Indonesian presidential election result was under dispute just hours after polls closed as both candidates, Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, claimed victory based on quick counts of the official vote.

With official counting to take weeks or months, people and politicians rely on usually accurate quick counts to assess the result.

Mr Joko and his political patron, Megawati Sukarnoputri, of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, came out early, saying they were confident of victory less than two hours after polling booths closed. But about an hour later, Mr Prabowo also, more equivocally, claimed victory.

Worryingly for those who hoped the election might produce a clear result and a peaceful process, both men asked their supporters to "guard" the counting process. Mr Joko urged his supporters to watch the integrity of the official count by the Election Commission against possible corruption.

"We are all grateful that based on the counting of quick counts, Jokowi-JK has won," he said to a packed room of supporters.

"I think now it's time for us to guard the counting, from the lowest level to the highest, so that it's clean and honest and there's no intervention. We ask for the people of Indonesia to guard the purity of the people's aspiration, and so that nobody can try to stain what people have voted for."

Mr Prabowo, who sounded hoarse at his public appearance, said: "We are grateful that from all the incoming data, we... received the support and mandate of the people. But we will wait until all the data comes in and, after 90 per cent of the data comes in, we will declare our position.

"We ask all members of the coalition parties, the red and white coalition, to guard this victory until the KPU announces the official result."

Local reports last week suggested Mr Prabowo has trained more than 1000 paid scrutineers at his ranch near Jakarta and deployed them around Indonesia for polling day.

Two of Indonesia's most credible polling organisations, CSIS and LSI showed the man universally known as Jokowi was ahead. LSI's quick count showed Mr Joko and running mate Jusuf Kalla with 53.38 per cent of the vote against opponent Mr Prabowo and Hatta Rajasa with 46.62 per cent. CSIS had Mr Joko up 52.2 per cent to 47.8 per cent.

But other, lesser-known polls featured on the pro-Prabowo TV broadcaster owned by his coalition partner, Aburizal Bakrie, showed Mr Prabowo in the lead with 52 to 48 per cent.

Australian National University researcher Ed Aspinall said: "All the reputable polling agencies" showed "quite a decisive Jokowi victory". The ones being quoted by Mr Prabowo "are from rather disreputable outfits with a history of inflating the vote for that candidate".

He said it was a "major concern" that the Prabowo camp would now seek to manipulate the official count to make it match the count of his pollsters.

There was little doubt in Mr Joko's camp about the victory. His mother Sujiatmi Notomiharjo came on shortly after he spoke, saying in the Javanese language, "Do your duties wisely, now that you've become president, son".

Ms Megawati, who was herself appointed president by parliament in 2002, but subsequently lost two elections to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said that, based on the quick counts, "it can be declared that the president for 2014 to 2019 will be Joko Widodo".

On the streets of Jakarta earlier in the day, voters said they had picked either Mr Prabowo for his toughness, or Mr Joko as the man of the people.

"Jokowi is for the people, a leader who is born from the people and he's for the people," said Hery Wijaya, sitting with friends in inner-city Glodok.

"I voted for Prabowo because I know Prabowo follows Suharto," said Tanah Abang market stall holder Eti. "He's firm, he's military. I want Indonesia to revive, be spirited, not just lame, so I want a firm leader, not a lame one."

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/subianto-prabowo-and-joko-widodo-both-claim-victory-in-indonesias-presidential-poll-20140709-zt1rw.html

Prabowo refuses to concede defeat

Jakarta Globe - July 9, 2014

SP/Robertus Wardi, Jakarta – Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto has refused to concede defeat in Wednesday's presidential election, claiming that based on quick count results by a handful of pollsters, he is ahead of opponent Joko Widodo.

"Based on quick count results by polling institutions that we use as a benchmark, we have received a mandate from the people of Indonesia," Prabowo said in a televised press conference.

He also took to Twitter to thank the people of Indonesia for having trusted him to lead the nation. "I am very grateful, touched and honored with this great trust. Thank you," Prabowo said.

Joko's camp had earlier in the afternoon declared their victory, with Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chairwoman of Joko's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), leading a separate press conference at her house in Kebagusan, South Jakarta.

The PDI-P's declaration was based on quick count results by leading pollsters such as Kompas, Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI), Saiful Mudjani Research and Consulting (SMRC), the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) as well as state-run Radio Republik Indonesia (RRI), which all gave Joko roughly 52 percent to Prabowo's 48 percent.

The pollsters that Prabowo cited, including the Center of Policy and Strategic Development (Puskaptis) and the National Survey Institution (LSN), gave him just over 50 percent, with Joko less than a percentage point behind.

Members of Prabowo's camp called on the public not to be provoked by the early declaration from Joko's camp. "This is a form of agitation and propaganda from the camp next door," said Andre Rosiadi, a member of Prabowo and Hatta's campaign team.

He said the announcement, which campaign spokesman Tantowi Yahya had also dubbed "premature," was a strategy put together by Joko's camp.

"They are [deliberately] creating such an opinion so that when the KPU" – General Elections Commission – "makes its final announcement of the results and Joko loses, there will be allegations that Prabowo and the government cheated," Andre said.

Ade Armando, a researcher at SMRC, said he was confident that his institution's quick count would not differ much from the KPU's vote count, due on July 22.

"We're not just stating this. We are certain that there will be no further changes. Even if there are [changes], it will only be a zero point something percent. We are sure the final result is that Joko has won," he said.

Ade urged the public to rely on credible polling stations, warning that other pollsters out there could be publishing quick count results to create confusion among the public.

The SMRC quick count shows Joko leading Prabowo by 52.91 percent to 47.09 percent, with 99.3 percent of polling stations accounted for.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/prabowo-refuses-concede-defeat/

Joko declares victory in Indonesia's presidential election

Jakarta Globe - July 9, 2014

Febriamy Hutapea & Markus Junianto Sihaloho, Jakarta – Joko Widodo declared himself the winner of Indonesia's presidential election, beating Prabowo Subianto in what had been viewed as a tight race filled with negative campaigning.

Joko had 52.9 percent of the votes, while Prabowo had 47.1 percent, according to preliminary results from pollster Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting. The data were based on 99.1 percent of the vote counted, and the margin of error was 0.62 percent.

Joko thanked the Indonesian people, coalition partners and volunteers, he said, at a press conference at around 2:30 p.m. local time.

"We express the greatest gratitude to all the Indonesian people, from Sabang to Merauke, our volunteers from Sabang to Merauke, the cadres of PDI-P, Nasdem, Hanura, PKPI, all who have worked shoulders to shoulders, day and night," he said. Joko was referring to his political party the Indonesian Party of Struggle (PDI-P). the National Democratic Party, the People's Conscience Party, and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party.

"We are grateful that the quick count result shows Jokowi-JK is the winner," he said, referring to JK as his vice presidential running mate, Jusuf Kalla.

Joko called on the public to monitor the vote-counting process by the General Election Commission (KPU) so that it would be clean and honest, with no outside intervention. "No one should spoil what the people want," he said.

Prabowo, though, declared victory, an hour after Joko made the same claim. "[The quick counts] show that we, Prabowo-Hatta, have received the support and mandate from the people of Indonesia," Prabowo said at a political rally, referring to his running mate Hatta Rajasa.

Kalla told Prabowo and Hatta that he still regarded them as "brothers" and asked them to help build the country together "as best we can." "We promise to make this nation better," Kalla said, adding that he was confident that the quick count results would not be overturned.

Kalla offered his appreciation to the young voters, who he believed had played a significant role in the presidential election. "Thank you to the young generation, the young voters. Without the support from the young generation, it will be hard to win the election," said Kalla.

He said that based on experience from the legislative election in April, there won't be a difference between the quick count results and the actual results. "God willing, it will not be too different from the real count," Kalla said in Kebagusan, South Jakarta.

Another poll from CSIS-Cyrus Network showed that the Joko-Kalla ticket won 51.9 percent of votes against 48.1 percent for their rivals, according to Tempo.co. CSIS-Cyrus's data, based on 99.65 percent of votes counted, has a margin of error of 1 percent.

[Additional reporting from Reuters.]

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/joko-declares-victory-indonesias-presidential-election/

Bucking national trend, Prabowo wins outright at army's Kopassus complex

Liputan6.com - July 9, 2014

Jakarta – The vote count for the Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa (Prabowo-Hatta) presidential ticket at the army's Special Forces (Kopassus) complex in Cijantung, East Jakarta, far surpassed the rival ticket of Joko Widodo and Jusuf Kalla (Jokowi-JK).

Based on Lipuan6's observations, the results of the vote count at the four polling stations (TPS) for residents of the Kopassus complex at the 01 Morning State Primary School (SDN) in the Baru ward, Rebo Market sub- district, East Jakarta, on Wednesday July 9 were as follows:

For TPS 26, Prabowo-Hatta obtained 491 votes while Jokowi-JK received 13 votes, with only one invalid vote.

At TPS 25, Prabowo-Hatta received 417 votes while Jokowi-JK only got 10 votes, with no invalid votes.

At TPS 27, the vote count for Prabowo-Hatta was 534 votes while Jokowi-JK only received 20 votes, with two invalid votes.

"The total number of valid votes was 554 with two invalid votes a total of 556", said a polling station official that counted the votes at TPS 27.

At TPS 28, Prabowo-Hatta obtained 408 votes while Jokowi-JK only got five votes, with two invalid votes.

Vote counting for the four polling stations, which began at around 1pm, proceeded smoothly and without problems, and was completed quickly. (Pew/Gdn) (Arthur Gideon)

[Translated by James Balowski.]

Source: http://indonesia-baru.liputan6.com/read/2075435/prabowo-menang-mutlak-di-kompleks-kopassus

Prabowo rages against 'unsupportive' and 'evil' media

Merdeka.com - July 9, 2014

Angga Yudha Pratomo – Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto seemed furious on Wednesday July 9 after he invited media crews to his residence in the Bojong Koneng village area in Hambalang, Bogor, West Java. He didn't shy from making insinuations against media that don't support the Number 1 ticket.

Initially, Prabowo invited the media to interview him one by one. Moreover the former army Special Forces (Kopassus) commander also gave opportunities to the media, the majority of which were TV media, to find a spot around his house to conduct the interviews.

When ANTV [owned by Golkar Party chairperson and business tycoon Aburizal Bakrie] interviewed him, Prabowo appeared relaxed and answered each and every question. However when Berita Satu got its chance, he immediately began making insinuations.

According to Prabowo, the media outlet owned by the Lippo Group has been sadistic in its reporting on him. Not just it's television station but also its English language newspaper the Jakarta Globe, which is owned by Berita Satu Media Holdings, a unit of the Lippo Group.

"Berita Satu isn't fair. It's sadistic. The same goes for the Jakarta Globe. It's evil the Jakarta Globe", said Prabowo.

Next it was Kompas TV's turn to be abused by the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra Party) board of patrons chairperson, although in the end they were still able to interview him.

Metro TV however bore the full brunt of Prabowo's anger. The television station is indeed known as a supporter of the Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla presidential ticket and often makes insinuations against Prabowo in its reporting.

Prabowo took his leave without a word to the television station own by the National Democrat Party (NasDem) chairperson Surya Paloh, a supporter of the Jokowi-Kalla ticket. He instead chose to be interviewed by CNN, even though the Metro TV crew was already preparing for the interview.

Then all of a sudden Prabowo started spouting 'caustic' remarks at the Metro TV crew and female reporter. According to Prabowo, the television news station is evil and he raised questions about Surya Paloh as the owner.

"Metro TV's evil. What sin have I committed against Surya Paloh such that you are so mean to me. Your reporting isn't balanced. If you don't want to be hurt, don't hurt other people. That's a teaching of all religions", said Prabowo.

Prabowo insisted to the Metro TV crew and female reporter that he has not done any wrong against the owner of the media group. "What have I done to Surya Paloh? [in English – JB] I don't think I've ever done anything to him. Are you prepared to ask that question of Surya Paloh", he said.

Prabowo's anger appeared to intensify. The reason being that he felt increasingly upset over the attacks often launched against him by the mass media.

"I have lots of supporters. How would it be if I told my supporters not to watch Metro TV, it would be all over for you. Kompas included, Berita Satu too. Likewise for Tempo. What have I ever done to Goenawan Muhammad [the founding editor of Tempo Magazine]. To [Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle chairperson] Megawati [Sukarnoputri]".

Prabowo even bragged that he would pay a visit on the owners of the media groups. Following the outburst, he excused himself, and the media crews that had already interviewed him were thrown out.

"Later I'll approach those people one by one. Mark my words. Because I've never hurt them. Now, those that have interviewed me can leave. This is my home. Come on, we'll do an interview with CNN. Go Ahead", he said emphatically. [ian]

[Translated by James Balowski.]

Source: http://www.merdeka.com/peristiwa/prabowo-marah-marah-pada-media-yang-tidak-mendukungnya.html

WikiLeaks cables reveal Prabowo's brutal past

Crikey.com - July 8, 2014

Prabowo Subianto could end up as Indonesia's president by the end of the week. Crikey intern Paul Millar trawls through diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks and finds distressing allegations.

"To say that Prabowo has a controversial reputation is an understatement." So reads a US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks. The retired Indonesian general and disgraced special forces commander may become one of Australia's most important allies in the Asia-Pacific region if he defeats Jakartan governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo in tomorrow's presidential poll.

While the latest Roy Morgan poll shows Jokowi clutching to a narrow lead of 52-48, Prabowo's meteoric surge of support over the last two months could be enough to make him the leader of the world's third-largest democracy.

Gerindra party candidate Prabowo Subianto rose to military power under the autocratic Suharto administration, which ruled Indonesia for more than 30 years. Rising through the ranks of Kopassus, the Indonesian special forces, Prabowo soon developed a reputation for brutal and uncompromising tactics in putting down perceived threats to Suharto's authority. Although they later divorced, Prabowo's marriage to Suharto's daughter Titiek bound him closer to the regime and gave him the resources he would later channel towards his bid for political office.

The diplomatic documents revealed by WikiLeaks serve as a bleak reminder of the manner in which Prabowo retired from military service.

Prabowo was dishonourably discharged from active service following his role in the abduction of youth leaders, political opponents and pro-democracy activists carried out in the lead-up to the May 1998 riots that marked the fall of Suharto. An estimated 23 protesters were forcibly taken at gunpoint by Tim Mawar ("Rose Team"), a covert unit under the command of Kopassus. The nine demonstrators who were later released testified to beatings, electrocution and drownings at the hands of their captors. Fourteen were never found.

Although Prabowo later admitted to authorising the kidnapping of nine of the activists, a military tribunal ruled that Tim Mawar had been acting on its own authority. Prabowo was expelled from service for failing to control his subordinates and fled into self-imposed exile to Jordan a step ahead of the courts.

The leaked cables also make startling allegations about Prabowo's actions during the riots themselves, outlining how he was a key player in the struggle among the military elite to become Suharto's successor:

"International NGOs have called for Prabowo's prosecution for alleged atrocities committed in East Timor by forces under his authority in 1999. He was also in command of forces in May 1998 in Jakarta. These forces allegedly tried to create chaos in the city as part of an effort by Prabowo to seize power for himself. During this timeframe, dozens of Indonesians died in mysterious fires and Indonesian Chinese were victimized, especially in the area of Glodok, Jakarta."

Perhaps most damning are references to Prabowo's close association with Muchdi Purwoprandjono, another special forces commander and later intelligence officer who served with the future presidential candidate in East Timor and regions. Described in the cables as "one of Indonesia's most vindictive public figures", Muchdi succeeded Prabowo as Kopassus' commander in March 1998 and was heavily implicated in his share of disappearances during the chaos. Of the nine people who disappeared during the 53 days of his command, four were never found. The cables mention rumours that they were killed and buried beneath the asphalt of the airport highway, along with the other 10 who vanished. Stripped of his position by the same tribunal that condemned Prabowo, Muchdi was relegated to a headquarters staff officer position.

Rising through the ranks of the Indonesian State Intelligence Agency (BIN), Muchdi was charged with orchestrating the 2004 murder of human rights activist Munir Thalib. Muchdi was acquitted of all charges in 2009 when many of the witnesses retracted sworn statements implicating him. No witnesses were offered any form of protection during the trial.

Muchdi is widely regarded as a protege of Prabowo, maintaining the brutal tactics and autocratic ambitions of his predecessor. Both devout Muslims with a strong military background, the pair served as the inner elite of Gerindra (the Great Indonesia Movement Party), the political party formed by Prabowo after his return from exile.

A diplomatic cable from 2008 described the former deputy chairman of BIN as a remorseless figure.

"A retired general who knows Muchdi well described him to DepPol/C as 'crazy', explaining that he has a gigantic ego and no scruples. The former head of the Munir case police investigation team, Internal Affairs head Bambang Hendarso Danuri (recently named as the President's choice to be the next national police chief) told DepPol/C that Muchdi has a personality that would allow him to commit human rights violations without it bothering him." Although Muchdi left Gerindra in 2011 for undisclosed reasons, the two men still maintain a close friendship.

Tomorrow, 187 million Indonesian voters will decide which man will lead the world's third-largest democracy into the Asian century. If Prabowo Subianto emerges triumphant, Australia may find itself wondering what enemies it needs with friends like these.

Source: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/07/08/murder-human-rights-abuse-and-kidnapping-wikileaks-cables-reveal-prabowos-brutal-past/

Investigation demanded as hundreds in HK denied vote

Jakarta Post - July 8, 2014

Bagus BT Saragih, Hans Nicholas Jong and Margareth S. Aritonang, Jakarta – Chaotic Indonesian presidential voting in Hong Kong, which saw hundreds of Indonesians unable to cast their ballot on Sunday, has resulted in mounting calls for an investigation amid allegations that some local organizers were supporters of a certain ticket.

Jimly Asshiddiqie, chairman of the Election Organizers Ethics Council (DKPP), said on Monday that the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) should be the first to launch an investigation.

"The public is unsatisfied by the two bodies' explanations so far. Therefore, to prevent the controversy from becoming more heated given that voting day that is only days away, an investigation into who is responsible should be conducted," Jimly said in Jakarta.

Both the KPU and Bawaslu have come under fire following the incident, which has sparked significant debate. Two KPU members, Sigit Pamungkas and Juri Ardiantoro, as well as Bawaslu chairman Muhammad, were present in Hong Kong on Sunday to personally monitor the vote.

About 150,000 Indonesians, mostly domestic workers, currently reside in Hong Kong. Hundreds of them staged a protest because they were not allowed to exercise their constitutional right to vote, and many of them suspected that they were rejected simply because they were supporters of candidate Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.

Local organizers admitted they had been overwhelmed by the unprecedented surge of voters in Hong Kong, even though the number of people who came to voting stations was far less than the number of ballot papers that were prepared.

According to the Indonesian Consulate, 114,662 voters were registered in Hong Kong and Macau, but only 23,569 cast their ballots in Hong Kong and 1,568 in Macau. Those who opted to send their ballots by mail numbered 18,126 people. As a result, around 70,000 ballots were left unused.

In comparison, only 18,177 people cast their votes in Hong Kong and Macau during the April legislative election. Nevertheless, the KPU and Bawaslu have blamed the chaos on disgruntled eligible voters.

KPU commissioner Hadar Nafis Gumay defended the Overseas Election Committee (PPLN) in Hong Kong, saying that local organizers had simply followed the orders given by local authorities to close the polling station on time.

"They did nothing wrong, as the Hong Kong government only permitted the use of Victoria Park for the election until 5 p.m. [local time]," he said on Monday, referring to a popular relaxation spot for Indonesian domestic workers in Hong Kong.

Migrant worker activists as well as independent observers claimed that thousands of workers arrived even before the station was open in the morning. Those who were not registered as eligible voters were told to wait until the afternoon, to prioritize those who were registered.

The number of people who were not registered turned out to be considerable, prompting organizers to open a special line for unregistered voters around noon. "At around 5 p.m., the PPLN announced that the polling station would be closed, while hundreds of them were still lining up," NGO Migrant Care said in a statement.

"Officials should have anticipated and quickly assessed the situation to come up with alternative solutions because [the unregistered voters] are also Indonesians who have the constitutional right to vote," it added.

Bawaslu member Muhammad, meanwhile, alleged that those rallying were actually voters who had cast their ballots. "The park was already empty [when the stations closed]. Then came a group of people saying they had not voted yet, although their pinky fingers had been tainted with ink [suggesting they had already voted]," he said on Monday.

Muhammad's fellow Bawaslu member, Daniel Zuchron, however, cited poor management by the organizers in Hong Kong. "In my opinion, it was just about how to manage resources, places and time properly," he said.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/08/investigation-demanded-hundreds-hk-denied-vote.html

Police ordered to shoot rabble-rousers on sight during election

Berita Satu - July 8, 2014

Makassar – Police in Sulawesi issued a deadly warning on Monday to anyone with plans to disrupt the July 9th presidential election: attempt to derail democracy and prepare to be shot on sight.

Insp. Gen. Burhanuddin Andi, the chief of police in both West and South Sulawesi, said his officers would authorized to use deadly force in order to ensure Wednesday's presidential election goes off without incident. The police chief called on Indonesian voters to resist the temptation to riot or take the law into their own hands.

The two provinces will be flooded with more than 13,000 police officers and soldiers to provide security during the election. Monday's announcement coincided with a the arrival of a sizable fleet of armored police vehicles in the Indonesian capital and the sight of three fighter jets screaming above the city's center in a show of force.

"(The order) is shoot on the spot," Burhanuddin said. "This has already ben arranged. There should be no one disturbing the election. This is a democracy of the people, for the people.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/multimedia/police-order-shoot-rabble-rousers-sight-election/

Prabowo evokes army strength, fatherly image in presidential bid

Bloomberg - July 8, 2014

Chris Blake, Berni Moestafa & Jason Scott – In the evenings near Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto's cattle farm in the mountains outside Jakarta, vendors with unsold food rely on the former army commando to buy their leftovers.

"He comes down with a car and when he passes by he rolls down the window and waves at us," said Vina, who runs a small grocery store down the narrow road that leads to the farm's gate. "He likes to joke. He says 'don't take life too seriously. You'll get stressed out, and it makes you old, fast'."

In the 16 years since dictator Suharto was ousted and his then son-in-law Prabowo fired from his post as lieutenant general amid accusations of human rights abuses, he's recast himself as a successful businessman and farmer who pays for the schooling of village children.

Even in the army Prabowo harbored political ambitions, say those who know him, and he's run an efficient campaign portraying himself as a strong, capable leader, a message resonating with voters less concerned about his reputation for outbursts and not tolerating dissent.

Prabowo is in a neck-and-neck race for Wednesday's vote, vying with Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, 53, to lead the world's fourth-most populous nation, where 28.3 million people live on less than $1 per day. While he studied at prestigious schools abroad and amassed a personal fortune of about $150 million, Prabowo, 62, recently said he was "once poor," without giving any details.

"Prabowo is the quintessential blue-blood – his ancestry links him to the Javanese aristocracy, Sultan Agung and Prince Diponegoro and his own father was a multiple cabinet minister," said Jeffrey Neilson, the Indonesia coordinator of the Sydney Southeast Asia Centre at the University of Sydney. "His own rapid rise through the military occurred when he was President Suharto's son-in-law. He believes he has a right to rule."

'Strongly driven'

"He has a strong character, very strong," said Agus Widjojo, a retired lieutenant general who knew Prabowo in the army. "Right from the beginning, since he was an active military officer, he had all the personal resources one would like to have to advance."

"He was very strongly driven by his ambition to lead the country," Agus said. "He knows how to take advantage of the condition of the voters to acquire votes."

On the campaign trail Prabowo, who has never held elected office, has played off his army days, passing over a rally at a Jakarta stadium in a helicopter and entering in an open jeep followed by a marching band. He jumped on a horse to inspect lines of supporters dressed like paramilitaries with red berets.

Special forces

"His great strength is his image for decisiveness," said Bob Carr, Australia's foreign minister from 2012 to 2013 and a former state premier. "Younger Indonesian voters, and they're a big proportion of the electorate, would welcome that side of him without dwelling on the allegations that are attached to his career as a military man."

Indonesia's special forces unit Kopassus, which Prabowo led, has a checkered history, accused of rights violations in the former province of East Timor. Prabowo was accused of using a Red Cross-marked helicopter to rescue foreign scientists held hostage by Papuan rebels, killing villagers in Kraras in East Timor and sending Kopassus members to kidnap pro- democracy activists in 1998.

It was the latter that saw Prabowo fired from his post on the recommendation of a panel of senior officers, which included current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, after Suharto was ejected in 1998.

Prabowo has denied any wrongdoing, saying his missions were sanctioned by superiors. Tony Hoesodo, who was in Kopassus and now works on Prabowo's campaign, called the allegations "a waste of time" and part of a "black campaign" by supporters of Joko, who is known as Jokowi.

'Once poor'

Alongside the image of a leader who can address years of drift in Asia's fifth-biggest economy, Prabowo has portrayed himself as a man with a common touch, to counter his opponent. A self-made businessman, Joko's down-to- earth image propelled him from running a city in central Java to governing Jakarta.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV Indonesia on March 19, Prabowo said he would build a "people economy" and boost funding 10-fold for the agriculture that 70 percent of Indonesians depend on for a living.

"I understand poor people because I was once poor," Prabowo told supporters in Jakarta on June 22. "I understand the feeling of not having money."

He's come under scrutiny on whether he'd seek to reverse post-Suharto reforms in the world's third-biggest democracy, including the introduction of direct elections. On June 28 he questioned whether the political system fits the country's culture, although he later said he believes in democracy.

Playing hero If elected, Prabowo may seek to "dismantle" the democratic framework, according to Marcus Mietzner, associate professor at the Australian National University in Canberra and author of "Money, Power and Ideology: Political Parties in Post-Authoritarian Indonesia".

"By all accounts, Prabowo's portrayal as a converted democrat was a clever campaign strategy – it doesn't reflect a fundamental change in his political thinking," he said by e-mail on Monday.

Prabowo is the oldest son of Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, an internationally educated economist and two-time finance minister who led efforts to send Indonesian students to study at the University of California, Berkeley in the 1950s. The students later became known as the "Berkeley mafia" of advisers to Suharto that crafted Indonesia's economic-development strategy.

Prabowo's family fled after his father took part in a rebellion in 1957 against founding president Sukarno.

Prabowo's website describes him as a stubborn child – taking after his mother – who was drawn to the military at a young age, playing "war games" with friends in which he took the role of the hero. Prabowo spent a decade shuttling between Singapore, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Zurich and London, finishing high school two years early at The American School in London.

'More cosmopolitan'

Prabowo's family returned after Suharto, then a general, toppled Sukarno, and his father became minister of trade. In 1970 he entered the Military Academy for a career that would span 28 years.

"By the standards of Indonesian soldiers he's more cosmopolitan," said John McCarthy, Australia's ambassador to Indonesia from 1997 to 2000 who met Prabowo before his 2001 divorce from Suharto's daughter Siti Hediati Hariyadi. "He had a much more cosmopolitan, educational background."

Prabowo advanced through the ranks, becoming a deputy commander at Kopassus in 1983, the year he married Suharto's daughter, heading it by 1996, and becoming chief of the Strategic Reserve Command in 1998. In the 1980s and 1990s Kopassus was on the front lines battling separatists in the westernmost province of Aceh and easternmost province of Papua.

Reward, punishment

"He was raised in a militaristic environment and he has never tried a leadership position in a civilian context," said Hamdi Muluk, a lecturer at the University of Indonesia in Depok, West Java, who specializes in political psychology. There is "concern that things will go back to the New Order," he said, a reference to the Suharto era, which was known as Orde Baru.

Those who served under Prabowo describe a commander who knew how to choose the right people for each mission and would fight alongside his soldiers when needed. They say he'd make soldiers take part in fighting sports to hone their toughness, yet encouraged them to pursue formal education.

"Prabowo is disciplined, and uses reward and punishment," recalled Hoesodo. "If we're right we'll get a reward. If we're wrong we get punishment."

Business interests

Hoesodo, who has known Prabowo since 1989, said stories of the former general's temper are exaggerated.

"If people with high expectations see someone who is lacking, they certainly will not like that person," he said. "If you deal with stupid people, I too would be like that."

After leaving the military Prabowo lived in Jordan, Germany and Malaysia for several years. Returning to Indonesia, he became president of Nusantara Energy, which has interests in pulp, forestry, mining and commercial fishing.

In 2004 he sought unsuccessfully to lead Golkar, Suharto's former party, before co-founding Gerindra with the backing of his brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who has interests in mining and was worth $700 million in November, Forbes estimated.

Classified diplomatic cables from the US Embassy in Jakarta, written after Prabowo entered politics and made public by WikiLeaks, an anti-secrecy group, describe him as ambitious and unpredictable.

"To say that Prabowo has a controversial reputation is an understatement," reads an August 2008 cable. "His direct links with gross human rights violations under Suharto make him a poison pill for many Indonesians," reads one from November 2008. Prabowo has in the past been denied a visa to the US.

1998 Activist

"Nelson Mandela was blacklisted from the United States at one time," Prabowo said in a interview aired on Al-Jazeera in November. "Am I not in good company?"

Activist Mugiyanto, 40, was kidnapped in Jakarta in 1998 and said he was tortured at Kopassus' headquarters. Mugiyanto, who uses one name, says Prabowo, who he never met, is "heartless."

"People seem lulled with the image and packaging," he said. "He's still the same Prabowo. What has changed? The only difference is that he's not wearing a uniform."

Those close to him say he simply wants to steer Indonesia toward better times. They describe a man who loves animals and is a voracious reader with an interest in books about history.

A joker

"Every time we have a family gathering, he is very jovial, full of jokes," said Soedradjad Djiwandono, an ex-Bank Indonesia governor married to Prabowo's sister Biantiningsih Miderawati. "Of course there's always also a serious kind of discussion at the table during mealtime."

Meilda Pandiangan, 36, a former anti-Suharto activist, has known Prabowo since 2009 and works on his campaign. She describes him as a "fatherly figure" who is misjudged.

The villagers near Prabowo's farm an hour's drive outside Jakarta say he often invites them for buffet dinners inside the compound. He pays for local children to go to school, for their breakfast and provides free health care.

When Prabowo hosts locals he tells them to lead a "simple life" and be "diligent," said shopkeeper Vina. "I don't know Pak Jokowi, we have not eaten off his wealth but with Pak Prabowo we have already eaten off his wealth," the mother of three said. "He's nice and firm. Jokowi we only know from TV."

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/prabowo-evokes-army-strength-fatherly-image-presidential-bid/

Religious leaders unite to get out the vote

Jakarta Post - July 8, 2014

Ina Parlina, Jakarta – Amid encouraging signs that eligible voters are enthusiastic to cast their ballot on July 9, the country's religious leaders on Monday urged their faith's followers to exercise their right to choose.

Statements were made by the Indonesian Bishops Conference (KWI) chairman Mgr. Ignatius Suharyo, the Indonesian Communion of Churches (PGI) chairman Rev. Andreas Yewangoe and the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) chairman Din Syamsuddin, after each met separately with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the Presidential Office on Monday.

"We urge all Catholics to use their right to vote according to their conscience," Ignatius, who is also the archbishop of Jakarta, told reporters after the meeting.

Ignatius was accompanied by several KWI representatives, including bishops Mgr. Johannes Pujasumarta, Mgr. John Philipus Saklil and Mgr. Leo Laba Ladjar.

Earlier, Din of the MUI, who was also accompanied by MUI officials Umar Shihab, Slamet Effendi Yusuf, Amidhan and others, emphasized that Indonesian Muslims should vote for the sake of a better Indonesia in the future.

"The MUI has just issued a fatwa [religious edict] that to vote is obligatory [for Indonesian Muslims]," Din said after his meeting with Yudhoyono. "We also want to urge people to vote. [Use your rights] for a better Islam and a better nation for all Indonesians."

Additionally, Din, who is also chairman of Muhammadiyah, expressed his concern that the upcoming election had divided Indonesians, including religious leaders, former military generals and artists, into two camps.

"If we do not start to rebuild unity, it may lead to conflicts," Din said. "Therefore, we, as the moral leaders of this nation, ask everyone, as well as the government, to ensure an orderly and peaceful election."

There are growing concerns that disturbances might erupt during and after the election, which is too close to call. And though Joko "Jokowi" Widodo- Jusuf Kalla and Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa stopped campaigning on Sunday, smear campaigns have reportedly persisted.

Meanwhile, PGI chairman Andreas said he was upbeat that the upcoming vote would run smoothly and peacefully, saying that people were smart and the government was ensuring the security of the election.

"I believe there is no problem in supporting different candidates. That's democracy. But after the election such differences should end. After July 9, the president-elect will be the president of every Indonesian, not only the president of some parties," said Andreas, who was accompanied by several PGI officials including Rev. Gomar Gultom.

Andreas also expressed his hope the president-elect would maintain peace in the country.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/08/religious-leaders-unite-get-out-vote.html

Surveys & opinion polls

Jokwi's presidential hopes 'resurrected' after poll suggests narrow victory

Sydney Morning Herald - July 8, 2014

Michael Bachelard – A credible new poll has injected hope into Jakarta governor Joko Widodo's presidential campaign, showing that he's rebounded from a slump to a moderately convincing 3.6 percentage-point lead over his opponent, Prabowo Subianto.

The poll suggests Mr Joko, the former runaway favourite, will squeak a narrow victory. However, the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2 per cent, and 8 per cent of voters remained undecided in the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) survey taken between July 2 and 5.

More than 1.2 million police, army and civilian "community guards" will be deployed across the Indonesian archipelago on polling day on Wednesday as Army Chief of Staff General Budiman warns that a very close result is likely to lead to tensions.

"We are getting more alert because the voting gap [between the two candidates] is likely to be very small," General Budiman said.

"If the quick count [polls that give results well in advance of official results]... show more than a 5 per cent difference, I think the situation will be much safer," he said on Sunday. Otherwise, "the potential conflicts between supporters of both camps are high".

The National Police Chief, General Sutarman, said the police would position 30,000 officers around Jakarta to protect it on Wednesday, and 250,000 nationwide. Another 35,000 military personnel and 900,000 civilian community guards (Linmas) would be deployed.

Mr Prabowo, a former military strongman, has in the past called into question the accuracy of voting lists. In recent days he has said both that "losing is not an option," and also, to voters: "We will respect your decision".

LSI revealed on Monday for the first time how deep Mr Joko's slump was at the end of June, saying its own survey showed him just 0.5 of a point ahead of Mr Prabowo – well within the margin for error. A spokeswoman for LSI said on Monday that the poll had been withheld from publication "for technical reasons".

A number of other credible polling institutions also withheld their polls at the same time, leading to strong speculation that they were protecting Mr Joko from the news that Mr Prabowo's momentum now made him the favourite.

The late June polls were taken as Mr Prabowo's barnstorming tour of Indonesia was at its peak, and Mr Joko seemed to have no answer.

But a strong final week of the campaign for Mr Joko, including a tour through populous Java, appears to have made up some of the lost ground.

The LSI poll shows Mr Joko with 47.8 per cent support and Mr Prabowo with 44.2 per cent, and 8 per cent undecided. It involved 2400 face-to-face interviews in 33 provinces.

A press release to announce the poll reveals that, a week earlier, in a poll taken between June 25 and 29, the numbers had been 43.5 per cent for Mr Joko and 43 per cent for Mr Prabowo.

In a press release on Monday, LSI, which is headed by pollster Denny Januar Ali, described the turnaround as a "resurrection". The survey ended before the fifth presidential debate, which was also scored as a clear win to Mr Joko and running mate Jusuf Kalla.

The election will be held on Wednesday and, officially at least, all campaign activity should have now stopped to observe a "quiet period". Mr Joko travelled to Mecca to pray and contemplate, he said, though some speculated he wanted to counter a damaging smear campaign that alleged he was a Christian born of Chinese parents.

The new survey shows Mr Joko has a convincing lead among women and a thin lead among men. Rural and urban voters are now almost equally breaking for him, though religious Muslim voters narrowly favour Mr Prabowo, whose coalition includes a number of Islamic parties.

Mr Prabowo, a multimillionaire with access to a private jet and a helicopter, had a significantly better resourced, more organised campaign, and his party, Gerindra, worked harder than his rival's. Much of the heavy lifting in Mr Joko's campaign was done by large groups of local volunteers.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/joko-widodo8217s-presidential-hopes-resurrected-after-indonesian-poll-suggests-narrow-victory-20140708-zszid.html

Jokowi ahead, but with slight margin

Jakarta Post - July 8, 2014

Hasyim Widhiarto, Jakarta – Two public opinion polls released on Monday suggested that presidential candidate Joko "Jokowi" Widodo could win Wednesday's presidential election, albeit with a tight margin.

A nationwide survey conducted by the Jakarta-based pollster Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), which is run by Denny Januar Ali, found Jokowi and running mate Jusuf Kalla's popularity stood at 47.8 percent.

The figure was 3.6 percent higher than rival Prabowo Subianto, whose popularity stood at 44.2 percent. Undecided voters were estimated at 8 percent. The survey was carried out between July 2 and July 5.

LSI's previous survey conducted in June indicated a gap of 0.5 percent, still in favor of Jokowi. There were no figures made available to evaluate undecided voters in the previous survey.

The LSI attributed Jokowi's popularity rebound to the intensive direct campaigning that has targeted grass-root and middle-class voters.

"Our qualitative analysis found that the door-to-door campaigns conducted by Jokowi volunteers has successfully fired up the grass roots," said LSI researcher Fitri Hari. "Intensive social media endorsement from public figures and celebrities known for their integrity has also lured middle- class voters."

Fitri, however, said Jokowi could potentially lose in the upcoming election due to the relatively high number of undecided voters and "unanticipated and extraordinary political maneuvers" by his opponents.

"Around 8 percent of respondents are still undecided about who to vote for. This is higher than the electability margin between the two candidates," she said.

Another survey held by PolMark Indonesia from June 24 to June 28 found Jokowi's popularity rating to be 44.6 percent, or 3.6 percent higher than Prabowo's 41 percent.

The survey also found that 68.5 percent of respondents said they were not affected by the smear campaigns painting Jokowi as a Christian of Chinese descent.

"Such a finding was a relief since it underlined that smear campaigns do not have a future in our democracy," PolMark CEO and founder Eep Saefulloh Fatah said.

The LSI and PolMark questioned 2,400 and 2,600 respondents, respectively, in their surveys. The margin of error in the LSI's survey is 2 percent while PolMark's is 1.9 percent.

Commenting on the LSI and PolMark surveys, Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician Eriko Sotarduga, also a member of Jokowi's campaign team, said he was optimistic that the pair could win the election by up to a 10-percent margin.

"The two surveys were held before the final presidential debate and the end of the open campaign period on July 5. We believe our volunteers' door-to- door campaign, combined with the Jokowi performance during the debate, have attracted more voters," he said.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/08/jokowi-ahead-with-slight-margin.html

Environment & natural disasters

Greenpeace ups campaign against PaperOne for logging conservation forest

Sydney Morning Herald - July 8, 2014

Michael Bachelard, Jakarta – Office supplies companies should stop stocking PaperOne copy paper, whose fibres come in part from high conservation tropical forests now being logged in Indonesia, Greenpeace says.

The call, being made to Australian retailers including Office Choice, Office Brands, and Smart Supplies, represents an intensification of the green campaign against the paper brand owned by Asia Pacific Resources International Limited.

Asia Pacific Resources announced in January a "sustainable forest management policy" in response to environmental pressure, in which it committed to stop logging high conservation value forests and peat swamp, stop establishing plantations by the end of this year, and to get all its fibre from plantations by 2020.

But Fairfax Media reported in May that, despite the pledge, swathes of tropical forest growing on deep peat swamp in North Sumatra were still being cut down by the company. The clearing had been accelerated, despite community opposition, to meet the environmental deadlines in the company's pledge.

The company subsequently denied that those forest areas being cleared could be considered as having high conservation value.

"APRIL is operating at Pulau Padang in line with its sustainable forest management policy, which means operations commenced only after the HCVF [high conservation value forest] assessment was completed. We are operating only on non-HCVF areas," a letter to activists said.

The Greenpeace campaign will target global retailers that sell the PaperOne brand, as well as printing company BJ Ball. Groups such as 3M, Costco and International Paper will also be targeted.

"APRIL [and its parent company RGE] has been caught out telling its customers it has support from governments and NGOs for a new policy to end rainforest clearance, but at the exact same time its bulldozers are out trashing Indonesia's rainforests and peatlands," Greenpeace Australia- Pacific lead forest campaigner Reece Turner said.

"These Australian companies need to follow the responsible path taken by Staples, Officeworks and others, and suspend contracts with RGE/APRIL until it ends the forest destruction."

Asia Pacific Resources says the logging on its concessions is within its conservation pledge, and, according to its peer reviewed assessments, the forest it is clearing is not of high conservation value.

Greenpeace says it has checked that claim with High Conservation Value Resource Network, the peer reviewer, which says it has checked the assessments for only two out of 50 concessions that supply to the company.

"Apparently RGE/APRIL doesn't consider the clearance of rainforest on areas of deep peat to be in conflict with its conservation commitments," Mr Turner said. "That should tell its customers all they need to know about the credibility of their commitments."

Recent fires within Asia Pacific Resources concessions, which have contributed to the toxic haze blanketing Singapore and Malaysia, were not lit by the company, but Greenpeace said draining the peat for fibre plantations increased the chances of such fires.

"It's like dousing your house in petrol and blaming a passing smoker when it all goes up in flames," he said.

In a separate initiative, Asia Pacific Resources announced on Tuesday an incentive scheme for local villages to help prevent forest fires on its concessions.

Under the scheme, villages that successfully prevent land and forest fires for three consecutive months will be paid 100 million rupiah ($9090); 50 million rupiah ($4545) will go to villages that extinguish fires in less than 24 hours, and contain them to less than a hectare.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/greenpeace-steps-up-campaign-against-paperone-for-logging-indonesian-conservation-forest-20140708-zszzn.html

Health & education

New law guarantees better care for patients with mental illness

Jakarta Post - July 9, 2014

Margareth S. Aritonang, Jakarta – Aiming to improve mental health services, the government and the House of Representatives approved the Mental Health Law on Tuesday, which mandates the establishment of mental health centers at community health centers (Puskesmas) and hospitals.

The new law also outlawed the practice of shackling (pasung) people with mental illnesses, thus, making it punishable by law, as stipulated by Article 86. The practice is still common, particularly among low-income families.

"According to our 2013 National Health Research [Riskesnas], 6 percent of the population, or around 16 million people, suffer from mild mental illness and 400,000 from severe mental illnesses. As many as 57,000 have been physically constrained," Health Minister Nafsiah Mboi said before a House plenary meeting on Tuesday.

"There were no measures [before the law's enactment] to guarantee the rights of those who have mental health problems. Thus, the government strongly agrees with the endorsement of this law so we can protect them," she added.

During a discussion on the matter at the House, the ministry's director on mental health, Eka Viora, said, "The number of mental health patients will potentially increase after the presidential election."

Indonesia has a pre-existing law on a similar matter, which was signed by former president Soekarno in 1966, but restrictively regulates the rights of those with mental illness.

With the endorsement of the new law, the central government and regional administrations are responsible for ensuring the health facilities are set up within five years of the law's approval.

The government must also provide quality human resources to assure quality services for all patients. "Most importantly, this new law will comprehensively provide equal services to all patients," deputy chairman of House Commission IX, which oversees health and manpower, Soepriyanto, emphasized.

In addition, the new law will force the government to reach out to people with mental problems, particularly those on the streets that could harm themselves or others.

The new law additionally requires a thorough mental checkup for candidates applying for government positions.

Article 74 says that all government officials, and any applicants, must undergo tests on intelligence, personality and psychology. The endorsement of the new law personally amused Commission IX lawmaker, Nova Riyanti Yusuf from the Democratic Party, who formerly chaired a special working committee tasked to deliberate the bill. Nova, in order to keep a promise she made, swam in the main pond in front of the House as soon as the plenary meeting officially approved the law.

"The bill deliberation was almost halted due to a heated argument [among lawmakers]. And then the drama over my dismissal from the commission chairmanship happened. But as the law was finally approved I must keep my word," Nova said shortly before she jumped into the pond.

Nova, a former Commission IX deputy chairman, was dismissed from the chairmanship by the Democratic Party over her open support for presidential candidate Joko "Jokowi" Widodo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)-led coalition, which was against the Democratic Party's official stance.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/09/new-law-guarantees-better-care-patients-with-mental-illness.html

Graft & corruption

New law shields House members from corruption investigations

Jakarta Post - July 14, 2014

Margareth S. Aritonang, Jakarta – The controversial endorsement of the Legislative Institution Law, also known as the MD3 Law, has drawn criticism, with many slamming the new regulation as an attempt by lawmakers to obtain legal impunity.

Following the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle's (PDI-P) move to challenge the law, which sought to annul a manipulative voting mechanism for speaker of the House of Representatives, a coalition of civil society organizations has now sough to challenge Article 245.

The article stipulates that law enforcement agencies needed to get the go- ahead from the House Honor Tribunal before they could summon lawmakers for alleged criminal activities.

According to the article, any requests for summons would be considered invalid if the Honor Tribunal, which would comprise 17 lawmakers from each political faction in the House, does not give its approval.

"This will allow lawmakers implicated in criminal cases to buy time [and perhaps] avoid the legal process," activist Abdullah Dahlan from Indonesian Corruption Watch (ICW) said during a press briefing in South Jakarta on Sunday.

Besides Article 245, the new law, an amendment to the 2009 law, further details lawmakers' rights to impunity in Article 224. The article stipulates that House members cannot be questioned for their conduct within and outside the House compound.

The new law, which the House hastily deliberated in the run up to the presidential election on July 9, will not only give lawmakers legal impunity, but will also shut off public monitoring of its performance.

Article 229 of the law, for instance, will allow lawmakers to have a closed-door meetings without any disclosure to the public. Such a stipulation would further enable the House to ignore input from the public in the deliberation of contentious regulations.

"The new law reflects lawmakers' poor commitment to accountability and transparency," said Hendrik Rosdinar from Civil Society Alliance for Democracy (Yappika), an Indonesian civil society alliance for democracy.

Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) chairman Abraham Samad said that the KPK would continue prosecuting lawmakers in the future in spite of the new regulation. He said that the KPK had its own laws to deal with corrupt state officials.

Abraham said the KPK would still be free to summon any lawmakers in its investigation into a graft case without having to ask permission from the Honor Tribunal.

"We don't have to abide by the MD3 Law. Even if the law is implemented, the KPK only follows the Corruption Law and the KPK Law. So, we don't have to worry about the implementation of the MD3 because corruption eradication efforts will not be affected by it," Abraham said over the weekend.

However, Abraham warned that other law enforcement institutions, such as the National Police and the Attorney General's Office, could be affected by the new law as they did not have a special law on graft cases.

Separately, KPK deputy chairman Busyro Muqoddas lambasted the House for amending the MD3, saying that a number of articles in it violated equality before the law principle.

"The position of lawmakers is equal to other state officials. The House has tried to violate the principle of equality before the law by protecting its lawmakers' law enforcement institutions," Busyro said.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/14/new-law-shields-house-members-corruption-investigations.html

Megawati to face KPK questioning in BLBI investigation

Jakarta Globe - July 12, 2014

Rizky Amelia, Jakarta – The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) on Saturday said it would question Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chairwoman and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri in an investigation into the controversial Bank Indonesia Liquidity Assistance, or BLBI, a bailout scandal that began in 1997 during Asian financial crisis.

"We will summon Megawati," KPK Chief Abraham Samad said. He said that the commission would have no trouble asking her to appear, having already summoned Vice President Boediono and former Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

The commission said it would reopen the investigation after the end of Ramadan. He also set a target for completing the investigation: December 2015, the end of his terms as KPK chief.

According to a report by the State Audit Agency (BPK), Rp 138.4 ($11.95 billion) of the Rp 144.5 trillion ($12.47 billion) in bailout funds amounted to state losses. Another audit conducted by the State Development Comptroller (BPKP) found that Rp 54.4 trillion had been misused.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/megawati-face-kpk-questioning-blbi-investigation/

KPK slams House over rule changes

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Jakarta – The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) said that the House of Representatives' recent revision of the Legal Institution Law, known as MD3, has proven that the House was not committed to the nation's corruption eradication agenda.

"By creating a regulation that fortifies itself, the [House] has clearly shown that it wants no part in eradicating corruption," KPK chairman Abraham Samad said in Jakarta on Friday evening, as reported by tempo.co.

The House endorsed the revision of the MD3 on July 8. Among the changes is a stipulation that insulates lawmakers suspected of criminal offenses from being summoned by law enforcement agencies.

Under revisions made to Article 245 of the MD3, any summons of a lawmaker must go through the House's own Honor Court. If after 30 days the court doesn't relay the summons, only then can the law enforcement agency itself summon the lawmaker.

Abraham said that this revision and others to the MD3 would give immunity to lawmakers who were dragged into corruption cases.

He noted, however, that the MD3 did not apply to the KPK because the body was governed by the lex specialis KPK Law and the Corruption Eradication Law. "We are not worried. What is worrying, however, is that it will slow down the investigation process done by the police and prosecutors," he said. (fss)

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/12/kpk-slams-house-over-rule-changes.html

Terrorism & religious extremism

Abu Bakar Ba'asyir calls on followers to support ISIL

Jakarta Post - July 14, 2014

Rendi A. Witular, Jakarta – The terrorist convict and spiritual leader of the region's extremist network, Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, has instructed his followers to support their "fellow brothers" by fighting with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its self-proclaimed Caliphate of the State of Islam.

Ba'asyir's message was delivered to the chairman of Jamaah Anshorut Tauhid (JAT), Mochammad Achwan. "Ustad [Muslim preacher] Abu has told us that he and JAT will generally support our brothers fighting for ISIL," Achwan told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

Achwan said the support may come in the form of helping fund the ISIL movement and preparing JAT members to fight in Syria.

Many members of the JAT, founded by Ba'-asyir after he left Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), which was behind the 2002 Bali bombings, have been implicated and even convicted in terrorism cases.

"However, Ustad Abu has not yet pledged the ba'iat [oath of allegiance] to ISIL's leader [Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi], as he is seeking more information from our fighters in Syria over the future of JN [Jabhat al-Nusra]," said Achwan.

JN is a prominent Salafi jihadist organization in the Syrian conflict with links to al-Qaeda. According to Achwan, JAT has ties to JN.

"There seems to be discord between JN and ISIL. That's why we've chosen to refrain from declaring the ba'iat, but our position is clear. We support the formation of a caliphate and that the established territorial control by ISIL has gained traction as acknowledged by Ustad Abu," said Achwan.

ISIL has defined the Islamic state's territory as stretching from northern Syria to the Iraqi province of Diyala.

According to Achwan, Ba'asyir's support of ISIL was conveyed after he gathered high-ranking JAT leaders and his family members on Thursday in the supposedly maximum-security Pasir Putih prison in Nusakambangan, an island near the coast of Cilacap, Central Java. Ba'asyir is serving a 15-year prison sentence for terrorism offences there.

In prison, Ba'asyir has preached to most of the 326 inmates about his dream of creating an Islamic state, or caliphate.

Ba'asyir and other Muslim extremists worldwide have long dreamed of reviving the caliphate that ruled the Middle East and surrounding areas over the course of Islam's 1,400-year history.

Aside from Ba'asyir, other prominent jihadi leaders have also conveyed support for ISIL. This includes Aman Abdurrahman, who is now serving a nine-year prison term for terrorism training in Aceh, firebrand cleric Halawi Makmun of Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia (MMI) and fugitive terrorist Santoso of Mujahidin Indonesia Timur (MIT).

National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) head Ansyaad Mbai could not be reached for comment.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/14/abu-bakar-ba-asyir-calls-followers-support-isil.html

Parliament & legislation

PDI-p to be denied coveted House speaker's post

Jakarta Globe - July 10, 2014

Erwin Sihombing & Markus Junianto Sihaloho – Parliamentary watchdogs have lashed out at political parties supporting presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto over a move that will deny the party of rival Joko Widodo the leadership of the next House of Representatives.

"The recent talks that took place at the House were petty and rushed, and were not based on sound arguments," Roy Salam, a legal and political researcher at the Indonesia Budget Center, said of the discussions to amend the 2009 law on legislatures.

The law stipulated that the post of House speaker should go to the party that won the most votes in the preceding legislative election. In 2009 it was the Democratic Party, and this year it is the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, which has been the main opposition party for the past 10 years.

However, on Tuesday a working committee of the House tasked with deliberating proposed amendments to the law passed changes that would make the post of speaker an elected one.

The six parties that supported the changes were Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and its five coalition partners: the Democratic Party, the Golkar Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP).

Those opposing were all in Joko's camp: the PDI-P, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura).

Roy, whose organization is part of the civil society coalition opposed to the changes to the 2009 law, said it was "deceitful" for a party like the Democrats, which benefited from the automatic speaker appointment in 2009, to now roll back that mechanism.

He also blasted another amendment that would make it necessary for law enforcement agencies like the Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK, to seek presidential permission in order to investigate serving legislators.

"And strangely enough, this immunity does not extend to members of regional legislatures, so it clearly shows the corrupt and repressive thinking of the House members," Roy said. Other members of the coalition with the IBC include Transparency International Indonesia and Indonesia Corruption Watch.

The PDI-P, which had been expected to name Puan Maharani, the daughter of chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, as the new House speaker, has lashed out at the parties the pushed the new amendments.

Megawati accused the parties, particularly the Democrats, of "strong inconsistency," pointing to the PDI-P's own stance back in 2009 when it agreed to let the party with the most votes get the speaker's post.

"That was good political ethics," she said, but added that the PDI-P's House members would still strive to push through the policies of the new government if, as indicated by quick counts, Joko is named the winner of Wednesday's presidential election. "Remember the story of the elephant and the ant? It was the ant that won," Megawati said.

Joko's coalition, which includes House newcomer the National Democratic Party, or NasDem, will have 207 of 560 House seats when the new legislature convenes in October, with Prabowo's coalition – effectively the opposition if Joko is confirmed as the election winner – will control 353 seats.

Siti Zuhro, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, or LIPI, said it was regrettable that the House had chosen to revise the law during the election period, when the changes would undoubtedly be highly politicized.

"There have always been sudden changes after an election or before the new House or new president is inaugurated," she said as quoted by BBC Indonesia.

"The [amendments] that they produced should not have been made for short- term interests or power. In my opinion, whatever was made or debated in the parliament was politically motivated. That goes without saying," Siti said.

"But politicians should take into consideration the people's feelings, the future interest of the nation and not just take into consideration the 2014-2019 period. Therefore, if an article is revised, it should be based on factors that can be accounted for so that they don't have to be reviewed and revised again in 2019."

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/pdi-p-denied-coveted-house-speakers-post/

PDI-P tastes early resistance at House

Jakarta Post - July 9, 2014

Margareth S. Aritonang and Ina Parlina, Jakarta – Lawmakers have decided a voting mechanism to select the next speaker of the House of Representatives, instead of automatically granting the position to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which secured the largest number of votes in the 2014 legislative election.

The increasing demand for a change to the manner of selection for the House's next speaker has been included in the revision of an internal regulation, the Legislative Institution Law, known as MD3. According to critics, the revision would decrease the House's performance in the future, instead of improving it as claimed by lawmakers.

A plenary meeting discussing such a revision on Tuesday witnessed a heated debate among lawmakers, who apparently divided into two groups based on the coalitions supporting the two presidential candidates contesting the election on Wednesday.

PDI-P lawmakers suspected that the increased demand to change the procedure aimed to resist the party's influence in the next House and the sharpened rivalry between the party's presidential ticket, Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla and Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa, who are supported by six political parties including the Golkar Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

"It is clear to us that [the revision] aims to attack the PDI-P, which should automatically hold the position of next House speaker. We had earlier agreed to raise a discussion due to the revision after the election in order to avoid political interest from each member of our party," PDI-P lawmaker Eva Kusuma Sundari told the meeting.

Lawmaker Abdul Malik Haramain from the National Awakening Party (PKB), one of four political parties within the PDI-P-led coalition, also raised similar concerns, emphasizing that "the will for power is obviously reflected through the demand for change to the mechanism to select the next House speaker."

With the absence of the lawmakers from PDI-P and its two allies PKB and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), who left the meeting after a deadlock, the remaining factions passed the revisions on the law.

The result of the legislative election last April showed that there was no dominant party in this year's legislative election, which differs from the 2009 election that saw the ruling Democratic Party secure 150 seats of the total 560 seats in the House.

The PDI-P, which secured only 109 seats in the legislative election, will lose the vote to select the new House speaker should the House approve such a mechanism, even with the combined legislative strength of all the parties in its coalition – the NasDem Party, the PKB and the Hanura Party – with a total of 207 seats.

Separately, Law and Human Rights Minister Amir Syamsuddin said that the House has the final say. "The government is not in a position to meddle with the House's authority, which has no connection with the government," said Amir, who is also a senior Democratic Party politician.

In late May, the court ruled that the House did not have the authority to specifically allocate any state funds for "activities and types of spending" to help prevent corrupt practices amid a number of the House's budgetary members facing graft charges.

Legal activist Ronald Rofiandri from the Center of Indonesian Legal and Policies Studies (PSHKI) called on the lawmakers to postpone the deliberation of the bill, which critics have said would shut off public monitoring and accountability if approved. "The deliberation process and the materials of the proposed revision are setbacks," he said.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/09/pdi-p-tastes-early-resistance-house.html

Police & law enforcement

Police force needs 'mental revolution': IPW

Jakarta Post - July 12, 2014

Jakarta – The Indonesia Police Watch (IPW) has encouraged the National Police to adopt presidential candidate Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's concept of a "mental revolution", regardless of who becomes president.

The concept of a 'mental revolution' focuses on character and moral growth during education or training. "The police have been unable to provide legal certainty in many cases," IPW chairperson Neta S. Pane said during a monthly discussion at the National Police headquarters in Jakarta on Friday, as reported by kompas.com.

Neta hoped that by adopting the "mental revolution", cases in which the police wrongfully detain individuals, manipulate cases, involve themselves in extortion and other criminal activities would be abolished.

Furthermore, he said that adopting the concept would increase the professionalism of the police, limit prospects of bribery, encourage efficiency and improve internal monitoring.

"We hope that these steps will improve behaviors and actions of the police so that the relationship between the police and the people will improve in the future," he said. (fss)

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/12/police-force-needs-mental-revolution-ipw.html

Foreign affairs & trade

Prabowo camp urges Bill Clinton to cancel Indonesia visit

ABC Radio Australia - July 13, 2014

Helen Brown Indonesia and wires – The campaign team for one of Indonesia's presidential contenders has called on former US President Bill Clinton to not visit the country while vote counting is underway.

Mr Clinton is due to visit Indonesia as part of a tour of the region at a time when there is a fiercely contested race between Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto. Both have declared victory based on unofficial polling. The official results will be announced on July 22.

Prabowo Subianto's brother and spokesman Hashim Djokohadikusumo says Mr Clinton's visit is sponsored by a tycoon with links to the rival candidate and they may set up a meeting. "We'd like President Clinton to not get involved in our domestic political affairs," he said.

"I don't know whether this visit was planned a long time ago to coincide with the elections, but we're concerned that the trip may be used for other purposes."

Mr Clinton this week starts a tour of the Asia-Pacific region to highlight social work undertaken by the Clinton Foundation Good relationship with Australia

Meanwhile, Mr Djokohadikusumo says Mr Subianto has already established a good relationship with the Australian government.

He says Mr Subianto has exchanged letters with Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott, met Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop and had lunch with Jakarta-based Ambassador Greg Moriarty. Mr Djokohadikusumo says the relationship is better than that between Australia and the current Yudhoyono administration.

Vote checking is now underway to determine who won last week's presidential poll. The more credible private surveys puts Joko Widodo in front.

Source: http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2014-07-13/prabowo-camp-urges-bill-clinton-to-cancel-indonesia-visit/1342346

Presidential candidate Prabowo promises tough action on asylum seekers

Sydney Morning Herald - July 12, 2014

Michael Bachelard – The strongman candidate for Indonesia's presidency, Prabowo Subianto, has established a "very good" relationship with the Australian government by partly promising to be "very tough" on asylum seekers and people smugglers, Mr Prabowo's brother said on Saturday.

Tensions are rising between Mr Prabowo and his rival, Jakarta governor Joko Widodo, as each side continues to claim that they are winning the "real count".

Mr Prabowo's brother and campaign manager Hashim Djojohadikusumo said "My brother and Tony Abbott have traded letters," and that he had held meetings with the Australian foreign minister.

"Julie Bishop has had meetings with Prabowo, and has a good relationship.

"Prabowo... will be very tough on people trafficking... Prabowo has had lunch with Greg Moriarty, your ambassador. I would characterise the relationship Prabowo has had with the Australian government as being better than the relationship [between] the current [Indonesian] government [led by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono] and the Australian government, and I think you can check ambassador Moriarty on that."

In later comments, Mr Hashim again raised the subject of people smuggling in the context of the relationship, saying that a Prabowo government would crack down on "people from Afghanistan, Iraq, trying to get to Australia".

The passage of asylum seekers through Indonesia to Australia has long been an irritant in the relationship between the two countries, and many on the right of politics in Australia believe Indonesia does not do enough to stop it.

It is unclear if any such discussions on the subject have been held between Mr Joko and Australia, but in one presidential debate, Mr Joko said he thought Australia viewed Indonesia as being "weak".

With both sides claiming victory and 10 days to go before an official result is announced, tensions are rising.

Mr Prabowo openly denounced Mr Joko for the first time on Friday night, saying in a BBC interview: "I think my rival is a product of a PR campaign... a tool of the oligarchs... He's not a man of the people. He claims to be humble, but that's just an act."

Of the "quick count" poll results, most of which said with a small margin of error that Mr Joko would win the election, Mr Prabowo said they were part of a "grand design" to manipulate the result.

His camp has promised to refer several pollsters to police for criminal investigations over their "provocative" behaviour in finding Mr Joko ahead.

Mr Hashim said Berhanuddin Muhtadi, the head of polling company Indikator, would be referred for "violations of the law as we see it", and several other "heads and maybe members of other polling agencies" would also have police reports filed against them.

Prabowo campaign spokesman Fadli Zon said the pollsters had violated the law by indicating that any official result that disagreed with their "quick counts" would suggest that results had been tampered with.

Both sides have warned of the other trying to "steal" the election, involving 130 million ballots, and Dr Yudhoyono warned that the political situation could reach "boiling point" on July 22 when the Election Commission releases its verdict.

After that, the losing side is likely to refer the result to the country's constitutional court. Mr Hashim said his side would abide by the court's decision.

"There is nothing in our game plan that foresees taking to the streets... if there's no provocation from the other camp, we would not go on the streets".

Mr Prabowo addressed a rally in the centre of the city in support of Palestine on Friday, and was introduced to the cheering crowd of supporters as "the new president of Indonesia", before going on to talk about "imperialist powers who always want to see a poor Indonesia".

In the crowd were members of the hardline Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), who chanted "Jihad! Jihad!", though not in response to the declaration. One member was carrying a flag also used by militant group ISIL.

Asked on the BBC what he would do if he lost the election, Mr Prabowo said: "What? I am very confident I will win." He added, however, that if "the Indonesian people do not need me", he would retire to "a quieter life".

His brother, Mr Hashim, also warned Bill Clinton away from Indonesia, saying it was "not an appropriate time" for a planned visit later this month for the Clinton Global Initiative by the former US president.

"People in Indonesia are concerned that his visit may be used for other purposes... There is some concern that his visit might be used by the other side for their own purposes," Mr Hashim said.

"He can visit some time after the election is over."

Interview with Prabowo Subianto on BBC World News Impact: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDJPBUzdYzc

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/indonesian-presidential-candidate-prabowo-subianto-promises-tough-action-on-asylum-seekers-20140712-zt5l8.html

White House congratulates Indonesia after election

Jakarta Globe - July 11, 2014

Jakarta – The White House has congratulated the people of Indonesia on a successful presidential election that saw strong public participation and high voter turnout on Wednesday.

"The high voter turnout, spirited campaign and strong participation by Indonesia's public, civil society and media underscore the strength and dynamism of Indonesia's maturing democracy," the office of the White House press secretary said on its website on Wednesday.

The office said that as the world's second- and third-largest democracies, the United States and Indonesia had many shared interests and values, "including a strong belief in the importance of respect for human rights, inclusive governance, and equal opportunities for all people."

Indonesia held a largely peaceful presidential election on Wednesday, with the majority of quick counts calling the election for Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo. His rival, Prabowo Subianto, has refused to conceded defeat, though, citing other quick counts that show he won the election.

The official results will only be announced on July 22 by the General Elections Commission (KPU).

The White House also said that the US president looked forward to continuing the bilateral partnership with Indonesia's new president, who takes office in October.

"The Comprehensive Partnership that our two countries launched in 2010 is a long-term commitment to build on our common interests to broaden, deepen and elevate bilateral relations between the United States and Indonesia, as well as to promote mutual understanding and work together on issues of regional and global concern," the statement said.

"The president looks forward to continuing that important partnership with the new Indonesian president, as well as with the recently elected parliament."

US President Barack Obama and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono have developed a strong relationship and strengthened bilateral ties between the two countries in recent years.

"President Obama and his administration have valued the partnership with President Yudhoyono, who has worked closely with the United States to strengthen our bilateral relationship and our engagement with Asean [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations]," the White House statement said.

"As President Yudhoyono nears the end of his term, he can look back on an important legacy of helping Indonesia achieve strong economic growth, strengthened democratic institutions, and a role as a regional and global leader. This administration recognizes with deep appreciation his efforts to build greater understanding between Indonesia and the United States, and we look forward to continuing close ties going forward."

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/white-house-congratulates-indonesia-election/

Indonesian presidential contender taken off Canberra visa black list

Sydney Morning Herald - July 8, 2014

John Garnaut – Australia has removed the name of one of Indonesia's most controversial Suharto-era generals from a visa black list, in case he wins tomorrow's presidential election.

Prabowo Subianto, who was married to a daughter of Suharto, has returned from a period of ignominy and exile to make a spectacular entry into democratic politics.

In recent weeks he has drawn neck-and-neck with his rival, Joko Widodo, despite persistent allegations of discipline violations and human rights abuses during his time in the military, including while commanding Kopassus special forces in East Timor in the 1980s and heading the Kostrad strategic command in Jakarta at the time of his father-in-law's downfall in 1998.

Mr Prabowo has admitted to abducting 23 student activists in Jakarta in the dying days of the Suharto regime, while denying all knowledge of why 13 of those activists have never resurfaced.

Such allegations led to visa bans in the United States, preventing him from attending his son's graduation in 2000.

They also led to a visa ban in Australia, which has not been publicly acknowledged, and which it seems Mr Prabowo has not tried to test.

"The formulation from high-ranking [Department of Foreign Affairs] officials has always been: 'If he applied for one, he wouldn't get it'," said Marcus Mietzner, an expert on elite Indonesian politics at the Australian National University.

The recent surge in Mr Prabowo's electoral fortunes, however, appears to have cured his visa troubles and ensured he will have no trouble attending the Brisbane G20 leaders' forum in November, should he be elected president.

"The Australian government will work closely with whoever is elected president of Indonesia," said a spokeswoman for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. "Presidents of Indonesia will always be welcome in Australia."

It is understood that Australian officials have been courting Mr Prabowo since last year, when he emerged as a serious political contender.

"They've been thinking about how to deal with it for quite a while," said a former senior official. "Had he asked to come to Australia in, say, the last year or so, he would have been allowed to come. it would have been less clear whom he would have seen, although he would have had some senior contact."

While Indonesian polls are notoriously difficult to read, the latest readings indicate that Mr Joko may have regained his edge in the dying days of the campaign.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/indonesian-presidential-contender-taken-off-canberra-visa-black-list-20140708-zszrl.html

Economy & investment

Disputed vote brings Indonesia economic uncertainty

Agence France Presse - July 13, 2014

Sam Reeves, Jakarta – Indonesia faces a long period of uncertainty after last week's disputed presidential election, analysts warn – raising fears for Southeast Asia's top economy as growth sits at four-year lows, foreign investment slows and corruption remains rife.

After a bitterly-fought campaign, Jakarta governor Joko Widodo and his rival, ex-general Prabowo Subianto, both used different unofficial tallies to claim they had won on Wednesday. Most credible counts showed Widodo in the lead, sparking a rally in stocks and the rupiah Thursday on the expectation that he will be declared the winner when official results are announced later this month.

But the initial euphoria quickly wore off. The Jakarta stock market slumped as much as two percent the following day, and was 1.3 percent down at the close as investors grew nervous about the potential for a prolonged deadlock.

"Given the conspicuous absence of a concession, the market still cannot rid itself of the spectre of draggy uncertainty for a while more," said economist Wellian Wiranto, from Singapore's OCBC Bank.

Investors favour Widodo, known by his nickname Jokowi, as he is seen as a potential reformer and a clean leader in one of the world's most corrupt countries.

Prabowo, a top military figure in the era of dictator Suharto, has struck a fiercely nationalistic tone on the campaign trail, and is looked at warily by markets.

The election commission is expected to announce the official results on July 22 but the loser may contest them in the Constitutional Court, which has until the end of August to make a ruling.

It is not a good time for Indonesia to be hit by uncertainty that could scare off investors, as it undergoes a painful transition from a decade of rapid growth fuelled by high global prices for its abundant commodities.

Falling commodity prices, as well as a series of protectionist policies, have hit the economy, which expanded at 5.21 percent in the first quarter – its slowest pace since late 2009.

Foreign investment has also slowed steeply, with investors wary of the uncertain business environment. Corruption, seen as a major obstacle to operating in Indonesia, remains rampant.

The political uncertainty caused by the election deadlock can only add to the gloomy picture, observers warn.

The Jakarta Post newspaper, which has backed Widodo, warned in an editorial that taking the battle all the way to the Constitutional Court "would prolong the political stalemate and uncertainty until late August".

"The prospect of violence would dramatically increase unless leaders of political parties work to control their bases of support. The market would roil in response to these destabilising developments," it said.

Indonesia was rocked by violence before the downfall of Suharto in 1998 following his three-decade dictatorship, with many killed in the capital Jakarta during rioting and looting.

The country has enjoyed a decade of relative peace and stability under the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, helping to transform it into one of the world's fastest-growing economies and a major investment destination.

But fears are growing that the rising political tensions could spark fresh unrest, and Yudhoyono has called on both sides to restrain their supporters.

Analysts warn that the uncertainty could also hit domestic demand in the rapidly growing middle class, a key driver of growth in recent years.

"A disputed result will not just have market implications, but also likely a dampening impact on sentiment," said Australia's ANZ Bank in a note. "A Jokowi presidency is likely to be aligned with more optimistic consumers whereas a Prabowo challenge could dampen sentiment and spending."

Investors are hopeful for a quick end to the stalemate, with Widodo being declared the official winner later this month and Prabowo graciously conceding defeat.

But it is still far from clear how the crisis will play out, and most analysts think it is likely that Prabowo – who has been seeking the presidency for the past decade – will challenge the result in court if he loses.

"As much as the market is hopeful that the political drama has ended, we note that there are still alternative final episode scripts that cannot be totally ruled out," said OCBC's Wiranto.

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/disputed-vote-brings-indonesia-economic-uncertainty/

VIVA, MNC suffer for dubious poll results

Jakarta Post - July 11, 2014

Anggi M. Lubis and Hasyim Widhiarto, Jakarta – Shares of the companies that own the tvOne and Media Nusantara Citra (MNC) networks plunged on Thursday, as markets questioned the networks' credibility after they broadcast controversial quick count results for the presidential election on Wednesday.

Politically wired Visi Media Asia (VIVA), which airs tvOne and ANTV, as well as MNC, which owns RCTI, MNC TV and Global TV, saw their shares plunge by more than 6 percent, to Rp 250 and Rp 2,560 a piece, respectively, on a day when investors were, in contrast, buying shares and pouring funds into the stock market.

VIVA is owned by Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie, while MNC is owned by media mogul Hary Tanoesoedibjo, both of whom backed presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. Rival Joko "Jokowi" Widodo appeared to have won the election based on quick count results from eight pollsters.

Financial market analysts said there was no financial explanation for the drop in VIVA and MNC shares as the benchmark stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), soared to its highest level in 13 months with all sub-indexes ending in positive territory. Hence, political sentiment was the only possible factor affecting the two companies' shares, according to analysts.

"VIVA and MNC, which are strongly affiliated with Prabowo Subianto, reported different, controversial election results compared to other television channels. While others indicated Jokowi's win, only media from the [VIVA and MNC] firms reported otherwise," said Universal Broker research head Satrio Utomo.

Prabowo, using unofficial tallies from four other surveyors broadcast by the two companies' television networks, also claimed victory by a narrow margin.

"Investors see the different quick count results as [potentially able] to hurt VIVA and MNC's performances in the future. People will start questioning their credibility, and it might lead to declining advertising income for the two firms," Satrio added.

In the meantime, the Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys (Persepi) has openly invited all its member pollsters to uncover the irregularities that arose in the closely fought presidential election battle.

Hasan Nasbi, executive director of credible pollster Cyrus Network, urged all institutions that conducted quick count surveys during the presidential election to open their books and be ready for public scrutiny.

"This is the first time that there has been a difference in quick count results [...] There are already so many tools to verify the data we have, so [for me] this is as easy as pie," Hasan said. "Let's lay everything out in the open, right from the source and down to the end of the line," he said.

Several pollsters, such as Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)-Cyrus, Kompas and the Radio of the Republic of Indonesia (RRI), put Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla in the lead with an average of 52 percent of the vote, whereas they judged that Prabowo-Hatta Rajasa garnered an average of 47 percent.

However, three other pollsters, namely Puskaptis, the Indonesia Votes Network (JSI) and the National Survey Institute (LSN), curiously declared victory for the Prabowo-Hatta camp. (tjs)

[Esther Samboh contributed to this story.]

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/11/viva-mnc-suffer-dubious-poll-results.html

Indonesia stocks climb to one-year high as rupiah rises on vote

Bloomberg - July 10, 2014

Andrew Janes, Yudith Ho & Harry Suhartono – Indonesian stocks rose to a one-year high and the rupiah touched the strongest level in seven weeks after Joko Widodo said unofficial counts at polling booths showed him winning yesterday's presidential race.

The Jakarta Composite Index added 2.1 percent to 5,128.55 as of 10:31 a.m. in Jakarta, heading for its highest close since May 2013, as financial companies such as Bank Rakyat Indonesia led the advance. The gauge rose as much as 2.8 percent earlier. The rupiah gained 0.4 percent to 11,588 per dollar, according to prices from local banks, after touching the strongest level since May 22.

Foreign money managers have plowed more than $4 billion into Indonesian shares since December, surpassing the full-year record, on optimism Widodo will replicate nationally the success he had as Jakarta governor in cutting red tape and boosting investment. Widodo, known locally as Jokowi, had about a five percentage point lead, according to unofficial counts from two survey companies that declared him the winner, a projection disputed by his opponent, Prabowo Subianto.

"So far Jokowi-related stocks such as construction, infrastructure and banks are seen as the beneficiaries of this rally," said Priyo Santoso, the chief investment officer at Mandiri Manajemen Investasi in Jakarta, which oversees about Rp 23 trillion ($2 billion). "I think this rally will be a short-term one."

Indonesians will have to wait until July 21 or 22 for final results to be announced, and possibly until late August if there are legal challenges.

ETFs rise

The yield on Indonesia's 8.375 percent sovereign bonds due March 2024 fell one basis point to 8.04 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield has dropped 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, this week.

US investors piled into an exchange-traded fund of Indonesian shares yesterday, sending it to an eight-week high. The iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF jumped 4 percent to $29.35 in New York, the highest close since May 16.

"Indonesia could get its first popularly-elected president with a solid background in the private sector and who is staunchly committed to fighting corruption and putting the economy on a stronger footing," John Krey, an analyst at S&P Investment Advisory Services in New York, said in an e- mailed response to questions. "If Widodo is elected, expect a relief rally for both the stock market and the currency that will likely taper off once the new president takes office later this year."

Share inflows

Indonesia's one-month non-deliverable rupiah forwards traded offshore rose 0.1 percent to 11,569 per dollar, extending their rally since July 3 to 3.7 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"All of us can be grateful that based on the quick counts up to now, Jokowi-JK are winning," Jokowi told reporters in Jakarta yesterday, referring to his running mate Jusuf Kalla. "I ask all Indonesian people to preserve the people's will and make sure no one tries to taint the aspirations of the people." Prabowo said yesterday that it looked like he had won based on "information that's coming in from quick counts of various survey companies that we used as guidance."

"We don't think the rupiah's gains will be sustained," said Prateek Gupta, a currency strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. "The key near- term focus will be on comments from Prabowo as he isn't conceding his defeat. Any changes to his stance will be important for rupiah moves."

'Mild positive'

The Indonesia ETF has rallied 14 percent since a low on June 27. A Jokowi victory has been mostly priced into the stock market, according to Macquarie Investment Management and Banque Internationale ' Luxembourg.

"It's a mild positive for the equity market but I am not forecasting any wild appreciation of Indonesia stocks," Sam Le Cornu, who helps oversee about $1 billion at Macquarie and has a small underweight position in Indonesia, said by phone from Hong Kong. "The market may have got a bit ahead of itself."

The Jakarta index is valued at 14.7 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months, versus the five-year average of 13.7 and a multiple of 11 for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Speculation of a Jokowi victory helped send the benchmark index of shares into a bull market in March when he joined the race. Pledges by Prabowo, a former general and once son-in-law of the dictator Suharto, to borrow heavily and renegotiate contracts with foreign companies alarmed some investors.

Slowing economy

Both candidates campaigned on populist platforms to spur growth, reduce poverty, build infrastructure and help farmers. They promised to keep the export ban in place and neither mentioned fuel subsidies in the final leaders' debate.

Indonesia's new president will inherit an economy that grew at the slowest pace since 2009 last quarter. Exports have fallen in four of the first five months of the year following a partial ban on the export of mineral ores that started in January, while costly fuel subsidies make government finances vulnerable to increases in global oil prices.

"While the quick counts should be treated with caution, early indications that Widodo has squeaked past Subianto will be greeted positively by markets," Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, said in e-mailed comments. "From a market standpoint, it would obviously be more preferable if Widodo's margin of victory was significantly wider. A divided nation is the worst possible outcome as far as the politics of reform are concerned."

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/indonesia-stocks-climb-one-year-high-rupiah-rises-vote/

Analysis & opinion

Tensions rise as Indonesia awaits official election result

Red Flag Newspaper - July 14, 2014

Max Lane – According to the majority of polling institutions that carried out "quick counts" on 9 July, Joko Widodo won 52-53 percent of the vote in the Indonesian presidential election. Widodo, accompanied by Megawati Sukarnoputri, president of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), declared himself and his vice president Jusuf Kalla "winner of the quick count".

Later that day, Prabowo Subianto made a similar declaration based on "quick counts" that put him in front and other data that he claimed he had from the regions.

Quick count tallies are based on a sample of between 2,000 and 4,000 voting booths out of more than 400,000 across the country. The Indonesian Election Commission (KPU) will announce the result of its official count on 22 July.

Since 9 July, there has been no let-up in the number of aggressive statements by Prabowo and his supporters claiming victory. On 11 July, his spokesperson announced that party scrutineers had concluded the count at all polling booths and confirmed a Prabowo win. The former general continues to claim that the quick counts that did not favour him are mistaken or are the result of corruption and bias. Labour union supporters of Prabowo are planning a rally, prior to the official election result being announced, in Jakarta's largest stadium to "celebrate his victory".

There are fears, both among Widodo supporters and among democratic and human rights organisations, that this ongoing campaign is aimed at sowing uncertainty and buying time while the Prabowo machine finds ways to pressure and bribe election commission personnel to increase his vote. He has huge financial resources and in some regions the support of incumbent provincial and district governments. President Yudhoyono also has come out in support – raising fears that the police, army and intelligence services may find ways to assist.

Based on the quick count estimates that have given the win to Widodo, Prabowo would need to "gain" at least 4 million votes to give him 50-52 percent.

Whoever the KPU announces as the loser on 22 July is likely to appeal to the Constitutional Court either to overturn the result or order fresh elections.

The old in the new

The election campaign has confirmed the widespread alienation of the population from the existing political elites and parties. The support for both candidates was won primarily by rhetoric and tactics that tried to portray them as new and different.

Widodo's slogan is "Simple, honest and close to the people". His folksy style, which contrasts with the 40-year tradition of elitist arrogance by politicians, and the fact that he became a politician after the fall of Suharto, have been key for him.

Prabowo has railed against poverty, foreign domination of the economy, elite corruption and the degeneracy of politicians. On one hand he states that he would make former dictator general Suharto a national hero, indicating his authoritarian political tastes. On the other, he adopts some of the presentational techniques of former leftist president Sukarno.

The people have divided almost equally over whom they trust, although, in my view, there is a slight but clear majority in support of Widodo.

There have been reports of intimidatory mobilisations of military posts at the village level in some areas in support of Prabowo. There also has been a ruthless smear campaign against Widodo, which questions his Muslim credentials and hints that he is Chinese.

The left

No other forces have been able to intervene with a progressive response to the general alienation. The emerging trade union movement has been drawn into the Widodo versus Prabowo polarisation, sowing confusion and division among the ranks of even the more active unions.

The several small left wing organisations have taken different positions. Some have advocated a boycott of the elections on the grounds that both candidates are equally bad. The People's Liberation Party (PPR), acting with democratic rights groups, played a leading role in organising anti- militarist actions and propaganda, primarily aimed at Prabowo. Prior to the vote its spokesperson, Surya Anta, called on people not to vote for Prabowo.

The Working People's Party (PRP), the NGO "left" and most of the social democratic intelligentsia and progressive artists actively campaigned for Widodo. They provided the core of volunteers outside of formal party structures. In practice these were divided between those who concentrated on selling Widodo as a reformer, and those who avoided propagating such illusions and emphasised the threat Prabowo poses to democracy.

Widodo has given an undertaking to president Yudhoyono to stop victory mobilisations. However, Widodo is calling on his supporters to keep the closest possible eye on the KPU's counting of votes from the district to national level. It is likely that Prabowo will continue to mobilise. Prabowo has substantial militias, including some in the unions, if he wants to cause trouble on the streets.

Megawati's PDIP could also call on its core of traditional supporters to mobilise, at least in some regions. They have hardly been used so far in the campaign.

Tensions are heightening as 22 July approaches. There remains a threat to the democratic space won in 1998. Even if Widodo is declared winner, and even if Prabowo accepts the results, that threat will remain. Prabowo's coalition retains a majority of the seats in parliament. If Prabowo is declared winner, the threat will immediately be greater. Progressive people in Australia should prepare for active solidarity with all those defending the democratic space won since the overthrow of the Suharto dictatorship.

[Dr Max Lane is a lecturer at Victoria University in Melbourne. He was in Indonesia during the election campaign.]

Source: http://redflag.org.au/article/tensions-rise-indonesia-awaits-official-election-result

Joko Widodo's new deal

The Saturday Paper - July 12, 2014

Hamish McDonald – Will a vote away from elite patronage-based leadership ease Indonesia's often-touchy relationship with Australia?

When Joko Widodo finally came forward as a candidate for Indonesia's presidency four months ago, some of his fellow Javanese immediately thought of Petruk Dadi Ratu, a shadow-play puppetry piece embedded deep in their culture.

It's about Petruk, the thin one of four "sacred fools" the Javanese have inserted into their wayang version of the Hindu epics. In this episode, Petruk comes across a talisman of power mislaid by a great warrior and finds himself king, with chaotic results.

Tall and skinny, known universally by his nickname Jokowi, the 53-year-old Widodo is utterly unlike anyone else who's been a serious candidate for the national leadership, coming from a low-income, artisanal background rather than any elite. If he won, would it be an accident that also ends in chaos, perhaps without comedy?

Yet on Wednesday this week, a majority of the nearly 150 million Indonesians who voted took the risk, according to calculations by the most respected vote-watching institutions whose agents watched the open count across the archipelago. That result is disputed by the rival candidate, Prabowo Subianto, but there looks to be a margin of about five million votes that will be difficult for him to shift by recounts and appeals. If confirmed in the official result on July 22, it marks a historic shift for Indonesia's society and its young democracy.

Prabowo, 62, is descended from Javanese aristocracy, son and grandson of leading independence-era figures and one-time son-in-law of the late president Suharto. He was a soldier full of machismo and he's not been abashed about displaying and using personal wealth, put at $US148 million in his pre-election declaration.

Jokowi is the son of a lumber trader and grew up in a small house with bamboo-slat walls on a riverbank in the small Central Java city of Solo. He advanced through local schools to university, started a furniture business, became a popular mayor who cleaned up Solo, then won the governorship of the capital, Jakarta, in 2012. His total assets, including the business, are a more modest $US2.5 million.

"The two candidates indeed represent two visions for the country," says Surabaya businessman and writer Johannes Nugroho. "Prabowo embodies the quasi-feudal Indonesia in which leaders emerge from 'lineage' families such as his, the continuity of tradition and privilege of the ruling class. His brand of power is paternalism in its highest form. In complete contrast, Joko Widodo is a self-made businessman who ventured into politics, whose ancestry is no different from that of most Indonesians. Yet this is the essence of his mass appeal. Jokowi is the Indonesian Dream in the making."

It has been a close struggle between the old and the new. "In Java, there is a belief that the leader has to be impressive, handing out benefits," says Suko Widodo, a political scientist in Surabaya who gives media coaching to politicians. "By contrast Jokowi is asking for volunteers and donations from the voters, instead of handing out money to the people. Prabowo looks the part."

Jokowi also had to overcome cynicism imbued by endless major corruption cases. "Some people think that Jokowi may be a good pure man now, but that if he becomes president he will enrich his family and his cronies," says Leak Kustiya, editor-in-chief of the Jawa Pos newspaper group, the biggest in Indonesia.

Then there was the sheer weight of money thrown into the campaign by Prabowo and his billionaire brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, backed by an organisation modelled on US presidential campaigns and drilled into readiness over the four years since Prabowo founded his own Great Indonesia Movement, abbreviated to Gerindra.

By contrast, Jokowi was installed only four months ago as candidate for the nationalist Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle when Megawati Sukarnoputri – the 67-year-old daughter of founding president Sukarno and the party's lineage-bearer – moved reluctantly aside. Jokowi's campaign was based on enthusiastic but poorly organised volunteers, his rhetoric wooden compared with Prabowo's grandiose oratory, and his nine-point policy only issued a week before the vote. Megawati's daughter, Puan Maharani, withheld a lot of campaign funds for her own future career.

Plus there was a black campaign against him: a tabloid newspaper running fake documents purporting to show Jokowi was really of Chinese descent and a baptised Christian. The newspapers arrived at Islamic schools across Java, all too obviously using an address list held by the Ministry of Religious Affairs, whose minister comes from a party in Prabowo's coalition.

Prabowo had more real negatives: a hot temper, troubled companies, the lack of a potential first lady in his life, and enlistment of Islamic extremists. Most of all there was his dark military record, which started, according to senior army peers, with a psychological assessment as unfit for command and ended with the abduction and torture of protest leaders in Jakarta, for which he was cashiered in 1998.

Yet this got delicate treatment from most of the media, and was excused by a well-off elite yearning for firmer leadership. Until the last minute, polls showed the race too close to call. And in a tight result, it was widely feared, so-called uang saksi (witness money) might be deployed on a massive scale to distort the vote count.

Still, Jokowi's volunteer-based campaign seems to have won over money. Now Indonesia looks set on a new style of leadership when the incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, or "SBY", a polished former army general, hands over in October.

Jokowi wears casual work clothes, attends heavy-metal concerts, and wants to open up forbidden areas such as Papua. As city administrator, he's been hands-on: turning up suddenly to check if officials are at work, replacing bureaucracy and bribes with online transactions, walking around neighbourhoods to hear complaints, sorting out markets, parks, and drainage. He has talked Islamic fanatics into behaving themselves, and turned away greedy developers.

"He's a humble person, a good listener, and smart, with a very nice family," says Luhut Panjaitan, a former army general and trade minister turned coal magnate, who's been closely involved in the Jokowi campaign. "He follows a simple lifestyle – it's not feudalistic – runs his own company, and he's hard working. But he is tough: he can say 'No' if necessary. He will be a very simple president, a president for the ordinary people."

Actual policies and his likely cabinet are still being filled out. On both sides, the election campaign took a strongly nationalist hue, with preference for domestic business and food self-sufficiency stressed. Dependency on Australian cattle and beef will remain a hot issue; SBY's ham-fisted efforts to get mining companies to refine their output locally will be hard to modify.

Jokowi has shown the inklings of a tougher approach to the major fiscal issues that have dogged SBY, notably by eliminating the current $US20 billion a year spent on subsidising domestic fuel prices within four years, so he can divert more funds to universal healthcare and free education. The tradition of appointing classic liberal economists as finance minister and central bank governor is likely to continue.

Foreign policy has scarcely figured, but more continuity of Indonesia's cautious, ostensibly non-aligned stance is expected than if Prabowo had won. Though Jokowi has some controversial former generals among his backers, Western diplomats are relieved they won't have to deal with a president who's been persona non grata on human rights grounds; Malaysian and Singaporean neighbours that they won't face a volatile character who might escalate disagreements into conflict. Few are yet prepared to say what a huge positive Jokowi might be for Indonesia's problematic image, notably in Australia.

Jakarta has had a maverick president before, the late Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) from 1999 to 2001. Though from a revered family of Islamic leaders and a much-tested politician himself, he struggled to manage business and political interest groups manoeuvring around him and was impeached within two years, his former aide Ratih Hardjono points out.

"When kind-hearted Jokowi walks into the Merdeka Palace, it remains to be seen whether he has the strength to deal with all these competing interests," Hardjono says. "This will be so fierce and immediate, stronger than any tornado he has weathered in his lifetime. It will be nothing like being the mayor of Solo, or the Jakarta governorship in which he has not proven much."

Will it be a repeat of the wayang story of Petruk becoming king?

Source: http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/07/12/joko-widodos-new-deal/1405087200#.U8BN0cbZFZg

No thanks to PDI-P: Jokowi wins despite poor campaign

The Conversation - July 11, 2014

Yohanes Sulaiman – Despite an ineffectual campaign by Indonesia's Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Jakarta governor Joko Widodo won Indonesia's presidential election, according to quick count results.

Data from reputable survey centres such as SMRC (Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting) showed a 3-5% margin of victory for Jokowi, Widodo's popular nickname.

This apparently comfortable margin, however, does not reflect how tight the race was. Former military general Prabowo Subianto almost snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in a race that Jokowi was supposed to win easily. Six months ago, surveys showed he had four times more popular support than Prabowo.

With intense campaigning, Prabowo managed to close the gap in opinion polls just before the election. Prabowo still has yet to concede defeat, relying on four (of 11) quick count results that show him leading. The Indonesian Election Commission will announce the result on July 22.

Slow start for Jokowi

Before April's legislative election, Jokowi had a commanding lead in opinion polls of around 30%. But he started his campaign with a severe disadvantage. The PDI-P selected him as the party's candidate only very late in the legislative campaign period.

The PDI-P did not prominently promote Jokowi in most of its campaign material. The party's ads show either chairwoman and former Indonesian president Megawati Sukarnoputri or her daughter Puan Maharani. As a result Jokowi's impact in the legislative election was minimal.

When votes for the legislative election were finally tallied, PDI-P's share of votes was far below the high (and often unrealistic) expectations. Many commentators and even people in his own party started to blame Jokowi. They questioned whether the "Jokowi Effect" actually exists.

Further compounding the problems, Jokowi had to wait until he received Megawati's approval in mid-March before he could become the PDI-P's presidential candidate. Much to his disadvantage, he could not respond to smear campaigns that began to swirl during the legislative election campaign. Worse, his waiting for Megawati's approval provided his opponents with ammunition to cast doubt about his ability as a leader.

Prabowo went on the offensive

Prabowo did not have Jokowi's problem of trying to become the standard- bearer of his party. But he had two main challenges: his poor human rights record and his lag in the polls. Prabowo had to campaign aggressively. He built a huge coalition of several political parties. He expected the party machinery to turn out votes for him.

Prabowo also counted on his coalition partners to attack Jokowi with a barrage of negative campaigns to create doubt in voters' minds. Backed by media moguls and his billionaire brother, Hashim Dojohadikusumo, Prabowo had an effective campaign team that spread his message all over the place.

The tactics worked, thanks to the ineffectual responses from Jokowi's team. By the end of June, Prabowo was neck-and-neck with Jokowi in the polls.

Jokowi's lucky factors

Several factors helped Jokowi salvage his campaign. First, and most importantly, Jokowi managed to attract a number of dedicated volunteers who were willing to spend their own money and work tirelessly to spread his messages to voters.

The effect of those volunteers could hardly be overestimated. They organised a massive pro-Jokowi concert on the weekend before the election. The concert, which was held on the same day as the last presidential debate, managed to mobilise youth voters to support him.

The second factor was the presidential debates. While the debates did little to influence undecided voters, the main purpose of the debate for the campaigns was to mobilise and energise the debate winner's supporters.

Here, Prabowo failed to use the debates to question Jokowi's fitness as a leader and undermine the moral of Jokowi's supporters. Instead, Prabowo appeared unprepared in the first debate. Meanwhile, Jokowi and his running mate, Jusuf Kalla, used the the debates as a showcase of their program and can-do mentality.

Prabowo and his running mate, Hatta Rajasa, performed well in the second and fourth debates. However, Jokowi and Kalla handily won the final debate. That momentum continued to election day.

The third factor, which was beyond anyone's control, was the fiasco of the polling in Hong Kong. Hundreds of Indonesia's migrant workers were denied the right to vote after the polling station closed at 5 pm (HKT) on Sunday. The Indonesian Election Commission was accused of purposely preventing Jokowi's supporters from casting their votes.

While the details are still sketchy and in dispute, this created an impression among Jokowi's supporters that Prabowo had managed to turn the system and the Election Commission against them. This incident galvanised Jokowi's supporters and increased their turnout in Wednesday's election.

These three factors helped propel Jokowi's recovery. He thus managed to stem his losses and prevail against Prabowo. It was a close call, though, and Jokowi won in spite of his party's poor performance.

[Yohanes Sulaiman is a lecturer in International Relations and Political Science at Indonesian Defense University.]

Source: http://theconversation.com/no-thanks-to-pdi-p-jokowi-wins-despite-poor-campaign-29020

How to read a quick count

New Mandala - July 11, 2014

Andrew Thornley – In the immediate aftermath of Indonesia's presidential election, there has been intense scrutiny of not only a rack of quick count results, but the institutions conducting these and the media promoting their findings. In what was already a tight race between Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, eight quick counts have Jokowi ahead while four show Prabowo leading. How should we read these quick counts? And how significant are they?

Quick count results are gleaned from a sample of final results from the polling station level – as distinct from exit polls, which are a survey of voters as they leave the polling station (and are therefore not final and subject to levels of voter comfort in honestly declaring their choice).

Campaign talking heads in Indonesia have attempted to discredit quick counts – particularly those that show results leaning against their candidate – by suggesting that surveying results from around 2,000 polling stations, from some 500,000 polling stations around the country, cannot give an accurate picture.

This is baloney. To paraphrase an old saying, you do not need to eat a whole bowl of soup to sample the flavor; just one taste will suffice – assuming all of the ingredients have been mixed well.

The "ingredients" refer to the methodology that ensures quick count integrity. Credible quick counts will use a random sample of polling stations, taking into account factors that have a sufficiently significant impact on the distribution of votes among voters across the country to ensure against bias in the data.

The survey institution will also apply layers of quality control, from intensive training of field workers to verification of data submitted and data entry. To cook quick count data, a disreputable surveyor could skew the sample in favor of regions known to be sympathetic to that surveyor's political patron. Or they could just alter data before publishing.

As such, the integrity of the institutions conducting quick counts is important: to evaluate quick count results, look at not only who is conducting a quick count but who is funding it.

What is that institution's track record in conducting similar surveys? Are they transparent about their institution, funding, methodology and data? Persepi, Indonesia's Public Opinion Survey Association, is one body that promotes professionalism among their member institutions – including most of those that released quick count results on election day. They have announced that they will conduct an audit of the quick counts based on the significant difference in results.

Another criticism I heard levelled against the 9 July quick counts by one campaign spokesperson on television was that since many had similar results, they were clearly in cahoots to promote the other candidate.

Again, there is an element of baloney here. Many of the quick counts announced results with a margin of error of around 0.7 per cent.

How does one interpret the margin of error? Margin of error is the acceptable level of error in a survey. If we take a rough average of most of the reputable quick count results (and by reputable, I refer to my criteria above for institutions with a solid track record of similar surveys), Jokowi's margin of victory was approximately 52 per cent to 48 per cent for Prabowo. Applying the margin of error of 0.7 per cent, means that the result for Jokowi could be read as between 51.3 per cent and 52.7 percent; likewise, for Prabowo the result would be between 47.3 per cent and 48.7 per cent. Simply put, if quick counts are conducted well, then the results should all closely resemble each other.

There is another layer in interpreting quick count results. We need to look not only at the institutions conducting these counts, but the media that promote and often pay for their findings. And the media during this presidential election campaign have been more partisan than ever.

Television provides the most stark example. On election day, RCTI used the Indonesia Research Centre (IRC) count that had Prabowo ahead. MNC and TV One only cited three quick counts – from JSI, Puskaptis and LSN – all of which had Prabowo ahead. Metro TV, meanwhile, cited several surveys – including Kompas, RRI and the Saiful Mujani Research Center (SMRC) – each of which had Jokowi ahead. MNC, RCTI and IRC are owned by Hary Tanoesoedibjo, who has openly backed Prabowo's campaign. Aburizal Bakrie, the Chairman of Golkar and whose family owns TV One, has also backed Prabowo. Metro TV, meanwhile, is owned by Surya Paloh, the founding Chairman of Nasdem – which is part of Jokowi's coalition. And so each side is able to promote their own version of the truth, as told, and sold, through quick counts.

Why should we care so much about these quick counts in the first place? The easy answer is that each side has declared victory based on quick count results – so they cannot be ignored. The more important reason relates to a history of fraud during the official vote count in Indonesian elections. We only need to go back three months to the April legislative elections to find numerous allegations of electoral officers rigging the vote count. Credible and reputable quick counts in Indonesia give us a reliable benchmark, as well as a basis of evidence, against which to assess the official result, which will be announced by 22 July.

Political polling, including quick counts, is now well established and well accepted in Indonesia. For example, president Yudhoyono quickly acknowledged and accepted the SMRC quick count after the April elections and cited these in challenging his Democrat party to do better.

The National Election Commission once flirted with the idea of banning quick counts, but now simply requires all institutions conducting exit polls and quick counts to register with them in advance. The solution is not to restrict these important contributions to our understanding of elections and voters, but to survey the surveyors to sort out the wheat from the chaff and ensure that bogus survey institutions – and their backers – cannot capitalise from muddying the data pool and corrupting the overall integrity of the election process.

Andrew Thornley is a program director for The Asia Foundation in Indonesia. He can be reached at andrew.thornley@asiafoundation.org. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

Source: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2014/07/11/how-to-read-a-quick-count/

Optimism the likely winner over anxiety in robust presidential election

Sydney Morning Herald - July 10, 2014

Michael Bachelard, Jakarta – Anxious observers of Indonesian politics had hoped that the winner of Wednesday's presidential election might enjoy a big margin – 5 per cent more.

Only such a clear result, the anxious believed, would deliver certainty. Without it, the results might be disputed, supporters of either side might hit the streets, and Indonesia thrown into chaos.

Unfortunately, certainty we do not have. "Quick counts" taken from a sample of ballot paper cast on the day differ at the margins, but they appear to show the Jakarta governor, Joko Widodo, the winner over former army strongman Prabowo Subianto with a margin of about 4 percentage points.

Nevertheless, both men are claiming victory. With the official count of up to 190 million votes to take until July 22, quick counts are all we've got to go on for almost a fortnight, and reliance on their accuracy is total.

All the reputable agencies – and there are about half a dozen of them – say that Joko, universally known as Jokowi, won.

The rest, three of them, which say Prabowo took the prize, are paid for by TV stations owned by members of his political coalition, and have now been put under investigation by their own professional body.

But the dodgy provenance of these agencies has not reduced the volume of their barracking, particularly on news channel TVOne – owned by tycoon Aburizal Bakrie – which insists Prabowo has been elected. That view will still therefore have some currency, despite its tenuous link to reality.

What you think happens next depends on whether you are an optimist for Indonesian democracy or a pessimist.

A pessimist would say that Prabowo, with his virtually unlimited resources, his deep links into Indonesia's security forces and into the shady netherworld of civilian militia groups (prominent at his rallies in their paramilitary uniforms), will try to buy or bully the Election Commission to make the reality fit his fantasy.

In this view, there is a possibility of violent protests and secret coercion of the kind that once blighted the New Order regime of Prabowo's former father-in-law, Suharto.

An optimist would say that Indonesia is no longer like this. There are too many watchful eyes, too many democrats, a robust free press, people prepared to speak out if they see something wrong.

And in this election season so far, it's the optimists who have won out every time.

This was a hard-fought campaign between two (eventually) evenly matched and entirely contrasting men. It's a very familiar format to Australians, Americans, British people, but it's never before happened in Indonesia.

There were rallies, negative campaigns, wall-to-wall TV coverage, even a smear attack (based, it seems, on the birther conspiracy against Barack Obama) against Jokowi. Monumental sums of money were expended by Prabowo, in particular. Ultimately, though, all that money and all those smears did not carry the day and there was no violence along the way.

This seems like a turning point for Indonesia in many ways. Joko Widodo, the likely president, is the first post-Suharto politician to scale those heights. This is a significant achievement considering his opponent. He did it with civility, calmness and a grassroots appeal.

The election itself was robust, but peaceful, and, so far as we can tell so far, genuinely democratic.

Prabowo might be tempted to try to fight his way out of this, but the most likely outcome is that sooner (on the basis of quick counts) or later (in late August, when all chances of appeal are exhausted) he'll need to accept he has lost.

It already seems he's started to talk himself down from his initial claim of victory. He now says he'll wait for the umpire's decision.

The incumbent, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who has been mocked in Indonesia for his aversion to action, came into his own on election night by calling the protagonists to calm down and to stop their public protestations.

He called both men to his private residence at Cikeas and spoke to them separately at about midnight on election night, telling Jokowi to restrain the celebrations and Prabowo to keep his supporters calm.

He's played his role as president. Now we'll have a chance to see how the rest of Indonesia's democrats play theirs.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/optimism-the-likely-winner-over-anxiety-in-indonesias-robust-presidential-election-20140710-zt2lk.html

Prabowo's game plan

New Mandala - July 10, 2014

Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner – Let's be clear about one thing: Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has won Indonesia's 9 July presidential election. If the formal vote counting and tabulation process concludes without massive fraud, he will be sworn in as the country's new president on 20 October of this year.

The reason we can be sure of this despite the absence of an official announcement by the Election Commission (KPU) is the availability of quick counts carried out by Indonesia's credible survey institutions. Quick counts occur when a survey institute places field workers in a sample of polling booths and, when the formal counting of the ballots at the polling booth is complete, those workers convey the results (usually by telephone) to a central collation centre.

If the sample polling booths are properly selected and sufficiently great in number and the count is administered correctly, well-organised quick counts can predict the final outcome of the formal count within a very narrow margin of error.

On voting day, within hours of the polls closing, seven of these institutions released their results showing that Jokowi had won the election by a solid margin.

Critically, most of these organisations are widely respected for their integrity, professionalism, and technical skills in survey methodology – a reputation they earned by producing highly accurate quick counts since 2004, when direct local and presidential elections were introduced. Even RRI (Radio of the Indonesian Republic), the country's state broadcaster – a relative newcomer to the business of quick counts – had drawn praise for its performance in the 2014 legislative elections; indeed, its quick count came closest to the actual result. The fact that all of Indonesia's credible survey institutions coincided in finding a Jokowi victory, and by a broadly similar margin, means it is all but a statistical impossibility that Jokowi will not emerge victorious in a properly conducted formal KPU count.

On the basis of these quick counts, Jokowi yesterday claimed victory in the election (though he used typically casual language in doing so) and he called on his followers to closely monitor the formal counting of ballots in the next two weeks. However, at the same time, four organisations produced quick counts of their own that showed a Prabowo Subianto victory, albeit by narrower margins.

On the basis of this smaller number of quick counts, Prabowo Subianto has also claimed victory. Consequently, Indonesia is now set for a period of significant political confusion, uncertainty, and even instability, in the weeks leading to the formal announcement of the results by the KPU on 22 July.

How can this confusion have arisen? We wish to be very clear that this is not a matter of a range of equally credible quick counts showing a wide range of potentially legitimate results. Rather, the confusion is part of Prabowo Subianto's strategy to steal the election, a strategy that evidently has been long in the making. Reportedly, one of Prabowo's chief campaign strategists, Rob Allyn, has been known for exactly this kind of strategy: to produce surveys which create the impression that an electorally weak candidate is competitive, and use the subsequent confusion among the electorate to manoeuvre this candidate into a more favourable position. Allyn has been known for this strategy in US and Mexican elections, and he has apparently found a very fertile ground in Indonesia to apply the same method.

Step 1. Muddy the statistical waters

Over the last decade or so, as well as an array of highly professional survey institutes, it is widely recognized that many organisations have arisen that are willing to tailor their survey results to favour their clients, and even to falsify surveys altogether. They typically do so when producing voter surveys, in the belief that some Indonesian voters are more likely to back a winner and that falsely high survey result will thus boost a sponsor's chance of being elected.

Though we have no direct evidence that the organisations producing the quick counts favouring Prabowo were paid to falsify their results, their track records give us every reason to be highly suspicious – indeed to be certain – that manipulation of some sort has taken place. For example, one of the organisations mentioned above, LSN (Lembaga Survei Nasional; National Survey Institute) has a consistent record of producing survey findings that show results for Prabowo and his Gerindra party that are much higher than the findings of established pollsters. As early as 2009, LSN predicted in the parliamentary elections then that Gerindra would get 15.6 percent of the votes – it eventually ended up with 4.5 percent. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, LSN issued a very early quick count even before polls had closed – stating that Gerindra would come first with 26.1 percent, obviously hoping that last-minute voters would bandwagon. At the end, Gerindra finished third with 11.8 percent. Two days before the presidential elections, LSN issued a poll that showed Prabowo leading by 9 percentage points – although other, credible pollsters had Jokowi leading by between 2 to 4 percent.

Puskaptis, another pollster whose quick count saw Prabowo ahead on the evening of 9 July, has a similarly questionable history. In 2013, the head of Puskatis, Husin Yazid, had to be rescued from an angry crowd protesting against his manipulation of a quick count in the gubernatorial elections in South Sumatra. JSI (Jaringan Suara Indonesia; Indonesia Vote Network), for its part, has almost no track record, except for falsely predicting Governor Fauzi Bowo's victory against Jokowi in Jakarta in 2012, and for claiming in the same year that 64 percent of Indonesians thought that Prabowo was the most suitable candidate for the Indonesian presidency. Finally, IRC (Indonesian Research Center) is reportedly owned by Hary Tanoesoedibjo, a media tycoon aligned with Prabowo. In June 2014, IRC predicted that Prabowo would win the presidency against Jokowi with 48 to 43 percent – using a thus far unheard-of methodology: it combined the polling numbers of all presidential candidates into an index and redistributed them based on whether they now supported Prabowo or Jokowi. It is hard to think of a less professional approach to opinion polling.

It is unsurprising, then, that these organisations came to the quick count results that they published on 9 July. And it is equally telling that all these organisations released their findings on tvOne – the television channel owned by Prabowo ally Aburizal Bakrie which has produced blatantly pro-Prabowo coverage throughout the election. In the lead-up to the presidential elections, tvOne had signed an exclusive contract with Poltracking, a new but relatively reputable institution. On the morning of voting day, however, Poltracking was told by tvOne that other institutions would join the quick count coverage of the pro-Prabowo station. Knowing about the questionable reputation of these institutions, Poltracking resigned from the contract with tvOne at 10am on 9 July. It later announced a quick count result that, like other credible survey institutions, saw Jokowi as the winner. The others, as explained above, followed tvOne's very obvious preference and published the quick counts that falsely declared Prabowo to have won.

Step 2. Steal the results

Why produce fake quick results? Votes have already been cast, so the intention cannot be to influence voter behavior. The purpose is clear: to buy time and sow public confusion about the election result, while preparing other methods to produce a victory in the formal count.

There are two ways through which Prabowo could potentially win at this stage. The first would be to wait for the formal announcement of the result and then challenge it in the Constitutional Court. The margin of Jokowi's victory, however, means that even if the Prabowo camp can find examples of maladministration in the count here and there – it will almost certainly be able to do this because Indonesian elections are far from flawless in their execution – it will not be able to overturn the result through a formal challenge. Jokowi's current advantage is an estimated 6.5 million votes; thus, Prabowo would have to swing around 3.3 million votes to draw even with Jokowi or gain a slight lead. No Constitutional Court decision, whether on cases at the local or national level, has ever shifted this amount of votes from one candidate to another. In rare cases, the Court agreed to move a few hundred or few thousand votes – but nothing of this magnitude. Similarly, the Court has ordered re-votes in some cases, but mostly in individual voting stations or districts.

This leaves one other option: manipulation of the formal counting and vote tabulation process. We know from other Indonesian elections – most recently the April legislative election – that vote 'trading' in the counting process is widespread. Candidates can and do bribe election officials at every level – from the individual polling booths up through the various levels of village, subdistrict, district and then provincial level commissions that collate the results – to shift votes from one party or candidate to another, to enter votes 'on behalf' of voters that did not turn up at the booth, or engage in other forms of manipulation. In the April legislative elections, fraud was massive but likely had little effect on the overall share of the votes attained by different parties because candidates from all parties engaged in such practices in highly fragmented and uncoordinated patterns.

It will be unprecedented in Indonesia's democratic experience for a candidate to try to steal the presidential result. But it is highly likely that Prabowo's camp will make the attempt. Particularly vulnerable are areas (such as the island of Madura) where Prabowo supporters dominate local power structures and where Jokowi or his PDI-P had few scrutineers at the polling booths to record the results as they were counted (exit polls on voting day showed that Prabowo had observers at 88 percent of all voting stations, against Jokowi's 83 percent). It's also especially likely that such manipulation will occur in areas where governors are district heads are Prabowo supporters, and where they will be able to exert pressure on local officials to intervene in the count.

Where to now?

During the election campaign, Prabowo Subianto posed as a democrat. In fact, he protested regularly against being portrayed as a "dictator" – even in his last Facebook message to supporters before the election, he complained about the non-democratic image given to him by unspecified forces. Now, however, he delivers the final piece of evidence that he truly is a would-be autocrat who has no respect for the will of the people and would stop at nothing to win power, even if he has to lie and cheat his way to the presidency.

We think that it is likely that Prabowo will fail in his efforts. The scale of Jokowi's victory is such that too many votes would need to be shifted to Prabowo's side of the ledger in order to steal the result. However, we cannot be fully confident about this prediction: what we know about Prabowo's ruthlessness, past experiences of widespread fraud in vote counting, the weakness of the PDI-P's monitoring apparatus, the strength of the Prabowo's political networks in the regions, and the vast material resources they have at their disposal all suggest that the Prabowo camp will be able to make a concerted effort to overturn the result. Doing so, however, will not be easy. The scale of the manipulation required means it will be relatively easy to detect, and it will invite massive resistance from Jokowi's supporters. A major escalation of political conflict is possible.

Indonesian democracy is not out of danger. In a series of previous posts (here, here and here) we have warned that Indonesia's post-Suharto democratic system would be endangered should Prabowo be elected president. He now looks prepared to destroy it in order to gain the post.

[Edward Aspinall & Marcus Mietzner conduct research on Indonesian politics at the Department of Political and Social Change at the Australian National University's College of Asia & the Pacific. They have been in Indonesia observing the 2014 legislative and presidential elections.]

Source: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2014/07/10/prabowos-game-plan/

He's on a horse: Prabowo v Jokowi a battle for Indonesian democracy

Crikey.com - July 9, 2014

Jim Della-Giacoma – Indonesians will head to the polls to decide their next president today. The scene is set, with military strongman Prabowo sitting tall in expensive boots while the people's man, Jokowi, makes a last-minute prayer. Jim Della-Giacoma reports.

Two men are seeking to fill the shoes of president as Indonesians head to the polls today – and two iconic images from rallies in the same location tell the story of this presidential campaign.

Prabowo Subianto arrived at the national sports stadium by helicopter to make his pitch to the people, avoiding the infamous Jakarta traffic. Joko Widodo, the capital's governor, came by car.

Prabowo made a triumphant entrance straight backed on a horse wearing high-cut riding boots, which cost the annual income of Indonesia's poorest citizens. Jokowi, as his rival is universally known, leapt on stage wearing sneakers that cost less than AUD$15.

Prabowo, the Javanese blue blood, descendant of a prince, loses his voice screaming anti-foreigner rhetoric to excited crowds. He projects an image that he is born to rule.

Born in a kampung by a riverside in Central Java, Jokowi prefers to go walkabout in crowds, touching one voter at a time. Softly spoken, he whispers to the rural heartlands: "I am one of you."

One message resonates with those who hanker for the stability and security of Suharto's dictatorship; the other carries with it the promise and opportunity offered by democracy. Opinion polls show that each has his own and almost equal constituency in this complicated country of 250 million.

Prabowo's campaign is slick, on message, and bankrolled by his billionaire brother. Styled by American consultants, he says all the right things. He is against corruption, wants to construct more roads, keep the lights on, and build a greater Indonesia. In his vision, the country's problems can be solved by his firm leadership.

Going on the trail with Jokowi shows his electoral caravan to be a shambles. He's always late, often doesn't show up for rallies, and repeatedly misses the opportunity to make the nightly news with a tightly scripted message. Clean and with a solid track record in governing well, his solutions are co-operative and bureaucratic. Together, he says, we will rise to these challenges.

Belatedly, Jokowi's team have pointed out that Prabowo's corruption- fighting credentials are weak. He was one of the fastest-promoted generals while his father-in-law, Suharto, was president. His coalition contains the highest-profile corruption suspects and parties caught with their hands in the till. Fed up with omnipresent corruption, Jokowi's popularity with voters is based on his reputation for being honest and humble.

Prabowo, the former special forces chief, is running from his past. Dismissed from the military in 1998 after being accused of the unauthorised kidnapping of activists, he was discharged on the recommendation of a council of peers. This was process and punishment by a system notorious for its weak accountability. But he can claim he was never tried or convicted in a court for these crimes. While the call for justice by families of victims makes the newspapers, most voters get their news from television. Each network is captured by an oligarch, each businessman has his own party, and most of them back Prabowo. His spin gets the airtime as Jokowi struggles to get his message out.

Prabowo, who has never held elected office, is making his third run at the presidency. If successful, some fear it would be his last; his party's policy is to revert to the 1945 independence constitution, which allows for no direct elections or term limits. Indonesia's democracy is looking fragile.

Ideas have often been lost in a dirty campaign. A Javanese Muslim, Jokowi has been subject to a black campaign, being called a Chinese Christian. Some mud has stuck in mostly Islamic electorates. Prabowo is backed by four of the more conservative Islamic parties. The Jakarta Post, the Christian- owned English-language daily, unusually endorsed Jokowi, in part for rejecting faith-based politics. Prabowo, it wrote, has embraced "religious thugs who forward an intolerant agenda". In the three days quiet time ahead of the election, Jokowi, already a haji, left for a quick pilgrimage to Mecca before returning to vote today. Some think it a masterstroke. Is Prabowo destined to lead? Will Jokowi's prayers be answered? Who will be walking in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's moccasins come October? In an electorate of around 190 million, the wisdom and choice is now with the crowd.

[Jim Della-Giacoma is a visiting fellow in the Department of Social and Political Change in the School of International, Political and Strategic Studies at the Australian National University's College of Asia and the Pacific.]

Source: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/07/09/hes-on-a-horse-prabowo-v-jokowi-a-battle-for-indonesian-democracy/