Eras Poke, Kupang – The leader of a remote subdistrict bordering East Timor says his people are ready to take up arms if the ownership of a disputed piece of land isn't settled.

The Armed Forces (TNI) has barred a community in East Amfoang subdistrict, East Nusa Tenggara, from using the land in disputed Naktuka village.

But Robby J. Manoh, a village head on the Indonesian side of the border, said he did not understand why the East Timorese were allowed to remain in Naktuka.

People from East Timor are starting to plant on Naktuka soil, but our government has done nothing to stop them," Robby said. This is not fair. If this injustice continues, we have no choice but to force [the Timorese] to leave the area."

Police in East Amfoang confirmed the Timorese presence in Naktuka, but were told last month by the military that such cases were common along the border.

Daud Saul Ndaumanu, the subdistrict chief of police, said that the problem had persisted since 2006. "Regulation has it that [Naktuka] should be clear of any establishments or activities initiated by either country," Ndaumanu said.

But for some reason, that hasn't stopped the people of East Timor from staying in these disputed areas. I think the government should intervene in this matter."

Robby also appealed to authorities to look into the situation. We're in a tough position because we cannot take care of our own land," he said. "We've brought this up with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but nothing has been done to settle this issue."

Kupang district police and the governor's office have not reported any violence in the area.

Students poisoned after drinking milk labelled PKS

Jakarta Post - June 12, 2009

Bandung – More than 200 students from 10 elementary schools in Bandung Barag regency, West Java, were poisoned Thursday after consuming free milk packaged with a plastic logo of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Sindangkerta Police chief Adj. Comr. Adi Surjanto said his office was investigating two drivers and their assistants who transported the milk Thursday morning after 80 students were rushed to Sindangkerta and Cililin public health centers (Puskesmas) for poisoning.

"We received reports and immediately found out that the vehicles used to carry the milk were still in the vicinity of the crime scene," he said. The police would not be name any suspects yet, he said.

Adi said police had sent samples of the milk to the Bandung Drug and Food Monitoring Agency to determine whether any hazardous content in the milk may have led to the poisoning.

Only three poisoned students from SD Nangela and Madrasah Ibtidaiyah in Sindangkerta were still being treated by Thursday afternoon.

Legislators strike gold as they share $500,000 jewelry reward

Jakarta Globe - June 8, 2009

Febriamy Hutapea – In these trying economic times, their self- allocated reward is sure to elicit public criticism. Lawmakers on Monday struggled to justify a Rp 5 billion ($500,000) expense earmarked to outfit its outgoing and incoming members with gold rings and pins.

Nining Indra Saleh, who chairs the House's general secretariat, confirmed that the money was allocated under the 2009 House budget and that gold rings would be given to outgoing members as a parting gifts.

However, she denied reports that the entire budget was for the provision of the rings for the 550 lawmakers who will end their five-year terms in September.

She said that allocations for the rings only stood at Rp 1.92 billion, meaning that each House member would get one 10-gram ring worth Rp 3.5 million. The remaining Rp 3.5 billion will be used to provide 560 new legislators, elected in April, with a set of one large and one small pin.

She did not specify what the pins would be made of, but said that each small pin cost Rp 2.95 million, while the big pins cost Rp 2.5 million each.

A recent survey from Transparency International Indonesia placed the legislature as being perceived as the country's most corrupt institution, with a grade of 4.4, with 5 being very corrupt.

A dozen members of the House have been arrested on graft charges by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), eight of whom have now already been convicted by the Anti-Corruption Court. The court has also brought many provincial and district legislative councilors to trial for graft, extortion, abuse of power and bribery.

Sebastian Salang, coordinator of the Public Care Forum for Indonesian Parliament (Formappi), said that the legislators did not deserve such parting gifts. "Their image and performance were really poor," he said.

Sebastian said that the House should be aware that the state budget deficit was often covered through by debt and he regretted that the budget was being spent on trivial things. He said that the legislators were not sensitive to those who still lived beneath the poverty line.

Nining defended the allocation, saying it was part of tradition when a member's term ended.

Ganjar Pranowo, of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), confirmed the tradition and asked the public not to politicize the matter. Legislator Alvin Lie from the National Mandate Party (PAN) said the rings were not unusual. "The issue is not the price, but the appreciation [it symbolizes]," he said.

House Speaker Agung Laksono said the budget to procure the rings has already been allocated and that they would be given to the lawmakers at the end of House's period. "The procurement is through a tender. But if many think that it's not necessary, it can be canceled," he said.

Actions, demos, protests...

Street kids march against exploitation

Jakarta Post - June 13, 2009

Jakarta – Hundreds of street children marched through the crowded streets of East Jakarta to protest child exploitation.

Gumgum Gumelar, spokesman for the street children foundation Sekam, said the march was held to denounce child labor, including begging or busking on the streets.

The march began in Jatinegara and proceeded to Jl. Matraman, before turning back.

Journalists, bloggers hold solidarity rally for Prita Mulyasari

Jakarta Post - June 12, 2009

Ni Komang Erviani, Denpasar – Dozens of local journalists, bloggers and human rights activists staged a peaceful rally Thursday at Denpasar District Court to express their support of Prita Mulyasari, a housewife currently on trial for libel and defamation after writing an email criticizing Omni International Hospital.

The rally was also aimed at voicing opposition to what the protesters described as efforts to limit free speech.

Prita is charged with violating Article 27 (3) Law No 11/2008 on Information and Electronic Transaction, an offense that carries a penalty of six years imprisonment. The mother of two toddlers is also charged with breaching Article 310 and 311 of the Criminal Code on defamation.

Prita was detained by public prosecutors in a state penitentiary for more than 30 days until a public outcry forced them to grant her a house.

The rally was held Thursday, the day Prita was scheduled to appear at the Tangerang District Court for the second hearing of her trial.

The protesters carried banners with the slogans, "Stop Criminalizing Freedom of Expression," and "Revoke Article 27 (33) of the Law on Information and Electronic Transaction", and "Free Prita Now".

Some protestors taped their mouths with strips of paper with, "Revoke Article 27 (3) of Law on Information and Electronic Transaction" written across them.

In a written statement read by Rofiqi Hasan, a member of the Denpasar branch of the Alliance of Independent Journalists (AJI), the protesters demanded the court dismiss the case and release Prita immediately, and asked the government to revoke any articles in the country's laws that could be used to suppress free speech.

"Those articles are a clear and present danger to the public's right to express their opinions," Rofiqi said.

Representative of the Bali Bloggers Community (BBC) Anton Muhajir said that Article 27 (3) Law No 11/2008 threatened the existence of bloggers as it made them vulnerable to civil and criminal lawsuits filed by parties that wanted to silence particular voices.

"We shouldn't let this article erode the pillars of democracy or the freedom of expression," he warned.

The protesters were received by an official form the court, Nyoman Sutama, who said he had no authority to revise the law and no jurisdiction to influence the outcome of Prita's trial in Tangerang.

Refugees rally for cash aid

Jakarta Post - June 10, 2009

Andi Hajramurni, Makassar – Around 50 people representing over 3,000 migrants who were displaced following the East Timor debacle in 1999 staged a rally outside the South Sulawesi governor's office building Wednesday to demand disbursement of cash aid.

Muhammad Samir, one of the refugees, said at least 141 families did not receive financial assistance worth Rp 5 million (US$500) each. The Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Office extended the financial assistance through the state postal company in May.

"We believe the number of families eligible for the aid is far higher as we listed only those living in six districts," he said. The government data revealed that at least 3,709 families fled East Timor 10 years ago for South Sulawesi to evade the rampaging violence. A local non-governmental organization the National Committee for Political Refugees (Kokpit) conducted registration of the needy families.

Samir said he suspected the NGO of committing fraud by registering only families that paid grease money. "The NGO argued the money was for arranging registration-related matters," he said.

Head of the provincial environment control agency, Maskur Sultan, who received the protesters, said the matter would be reported to the central government. He called on the people to file a report with the police against the NGO.

Activists demand protection in agriculture

Jakarta Post - June 10, 2009

Luh De Suriyani, Denpasar – Local anti-World Trade Organization (WTO) activists continued their protest Tuesday by staging a noisy rally in front of the Australian Consulate as well as in the Bali Provincial Legislative Council in Renon, Denpasar.

The timing of the protests was carefully staged to coincide with the 33rd Cairns Group Ministerial Meeting in Tanjung Benoa. The meeting will end Wednesday. The Cairns Group is a coalition of 19 agricultural exporter countries, including Indonesia.

Agricultural subsidies have become a major stumbling block in negotiations on global trade between the Cairns Group and developed nations.

Some 30 activists, united under the Anti-WTO People Coalition, demanded that the Bali Administration reject any political schemes to terminate government subsidies for the agricultural sector and its products.

They also asked the government to provide more protection for the country's agricultural sector amid the onslaught of imported products from developed countries, such as Australia and the United States.

At the Bali Provincial Legislative Council, the protesters were received by councilor I Made Arjaya. He expressed his full support of their protest, claiming that neoliberalism trade policies would adversely affect the local farmers.

"I will personally write a letter to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono asking him to reject any moves to liberalize the agriculture sector."

At the Australian Consulate the protesters failed to attract the attention of consulate officials. Eventually, they staged their protest in front of police officers and the consulate's security officers.

A similar protest was carried out Monday at the Bali People's Struggle Monument in Puputan Margarana field in Renon.

The activists carried banners expressing their disgust toward the WTO and the liberalization of the global trade. They demanded the dissolution of WTO, claiming that the world body has weakened the sovereignty of the developing countries.

One banner was addressed directly to the country's Trade Minister Mari E. Pangestu, stating "Mari Elka Pangestu Don't Sell G-33 for Cairns." "Fair trade has became nothing but political jargon," the protest coordinator Moammar Khadafi said.

Aceh

SBY camp dismisses Kalla as 'unethical' for Aceh claim

Jakarta Globe - June 14, 2009

The dispute between the rival camps of presidential candidates Jusuf Kalla and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono over who brought peace to Aceh continued on Sunday, with claims that Kalla was being "unethical" for belittling the incumbent president's role.

Bara Hasibuan, a member of the campaign team of Yudhoyono and his running mate, Boediono, said that Kalla, who is the current vice president, had no right to attack Yudhoyono while he was serving as Yudhoyono's deputy.

"Kalla might have played a big role during the negotiations with the Free Aceh Movement [GAM], but the final decision was made by Yudhoyono, as the president," Bara said.

He rejected claims that Yudhoyono – who has a reputation for being thoughtful and slow in reaching decisions, as opposed to the more direct Kalla – was overwhelmingly silent during the negotiations of the peace agreement, saying that each and every article had been checked and approved by Yudhoyono.

While campaigning in Aceh on Saturday, Kalla said that the peace agreement with GAM became reality because of his hard work.

Besides digging into his own pocket to cover expenses during the negotiations, Kalla said he shouldered all the risks in achieving peace in the region and post-tsunami reconstruction, including signing the peace agreement, which he claimed Yudhoyono refused to sign.

"You can check. There's no other signature but mine on the Helsinki agreement," Antara news agency quoted Kalla as saying. "I once requested a signature for the establishment of local political parties, but the president opposed it. It was I who finally signed and took all the risks..."

The right to form local political parties was part of the memorandum of understanding that was signed by the government and GAM in Helsinki, Finland, in August 2005.

In his statement, Kalla also said that he never demanded an award for all the hard work he did in building peace in Aceh, but that "someone else" expected to get a Nobel Peace Prize from it. Yudhoyono was mentioned as a possible candidate for the award in 2006.

Hatta Rajasa, the head of Yudhoyono's campaign team, said the Helsinki agreement was the result of a long process that involved many different people and bodies under Yudhoyono's administration. He said the agreement, which led to the Law on Governance in Aceh, was initiated by the government and endorsed by the House of Representatives.

Hatta said the Aceh peace agreement was achieved by teamwork, and not by one individual. He also denied Kalla's claim that Yudhoyono had ever opposed the establishment of local parties in Aceh.

Hatta said that the administration of Yudhoyono valued and promoted teamwork, so it was not unusual for the president to send aides to act on his behalf.

Ali Muchtar Ngabalin, a campaign team member for Kalla and his running mate, Wiranto, said that Kalla's statements on the Aceh peace process were all fact, and that Yudhoyono's camp had no right to object. He said that the people of Aceh should deserved a detailed explanation of how the peace agreement was reached.

Ali said that Kalla wanted to discuss the path to the peace agreement so that residents understood the cost of achieving peace in the province after nearly three decades of war.

"There's nothing wrong in letting people know who worked in the nation's interest," Ali said. "There was no intention to hurt the current administration."

Tsunami victims still homeless

Jakarta Post - June 9, 2009

Hotli Simnjuntak, Banda Aceh – More than 5,000 homeless tsunami victims, who have lived in barracks since the 2004 disaster, have threatened to boycott the upcoming presidential election.

They said they had no time to think about the general election as they have been stranded in the barracks located in Bakoy village, Aceh Besar, and in West Aceh for five years without any certainty for the future.

Maryani, a mother with several young children, said they had been repeatedly promised housing but the pledge remained unfulfilled, especially following the April 16 dissolution of Aceh-Nias rehabilitation and reconstruction agency (BRR).

"We have to bring this case to numerous sides, including NGOs and local authorities. No solutions have been given," she said.

The victims admitted they had lived in rented houses prior to the tsunami but were truly victims and that their belongings and documents had been devastated in the disaster.

Chairman of the Forum for Tsunami in West Aceh Edi Chandra said a total of 1569 families in the regency had yet to obtain housing and the local government had paid no attention to their poor condition. "We will not vote during the presidential election if the government declines to settle our problem."

Separately, Vice Governor Muhammad Nazar stressed all tsunami victims should have obtained new houses because the number of developed houses was more than that of the victims.

He said many locals had used the disaster to claim houses from the already dissolved BRR, which the government had appointed to build new housing and reconstruct damaged infrastructures in Aceh and Nias.

"Many victims have also obtained up to seven housing units as the distribution of the new houses was based on ownership documents." He pledged that the government would provide new houses for tsunami victims who had yet to obtain their own from the BRR.

Chairman of the Independent Election Commission (KIP) Akmal Abzal said despite the increase in the number of voters in the province, all tsunami victims had been registered as voters in the general election.

The 3.9 million voters will likely be divided between the SBY- Boediono and JK-Win presidential pairs.

President Susilo Bambang Yuhoyono is well-regarded by the Acehnese for his contribution to peace in Aceh. The Aceh Party has pledged support for his team.

The SIRA Party chaired by Muhammad Nazar has pledged its support for the JK-Win pair who were in the city to meet their supporters in the province.

Jusuf Kalla played an important role in the signing of the peace agreement between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the government in Helsinky on August 15, 2007, to end the three-decade bloody conflict.

Megawati and her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) were losing support in the province due to her government's decision to impose state emergency in 2003.

West Papua

Rights group irked over ministry's lack of probe

Jakarta Globe - June 12, 2009

Nivell Rayda – US-based Human Rights Watch expressed outrage on Friday over the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights' decision not to investigate the alleged torture of prisoners at a state penitentiary in Abepura, Papua.

Last week, the watchdog reported two dozen cases of alleged torture, violence and abuse at the prison, but Untung Sugiono, the director general for penitentiary affairs at the ministry, told the Jakarta Globe on Wednesday that they would not be responding to the allegations from the group.

"Untung should go to Abepura and interview the prisoners," Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said, adding that he was outraged that the director general had refused to open an investigation based on the warden's letter alone.

Human Rights Watch reported that the incidents of torture began shortly after Anthonius Ayorbaba, a former official at the Jayapura office of the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights, became the prison warden in August 2008.

Untung said that the ministry had already checked on the allegations with its office in Papua. The warden, he said, submitted a complete chronology of what happened and that several witnesses had confirmed the warden's story.

"He should see for himself how a prisoner lost his right eye after being hit by a set of keys," Adams said, "how another prisoner got severe burns on his hands after being forced to put them into a pot of boiling water, or how a prisoner partially lost his hearing after being hit in the head by a wrench."

He added that his group would write to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to ask for an independent fact-finding team to verify the alleged abuses.

Indonesian police charge three over Papua airstrip occupation

Radio New Zealand International - June 12, 2009

Police in Indonesia's Papua province have named and charged three men in relation to a month-long airstrip occupation by 150 armed people in Memberamo regency.

The three suspects are Nela Yenseren of Biak, Agus Silo of Kampung Kajasi Biakm and Melkianus Soromaja of Kosanoweja.

The Jakarta Post quotes the chief of the Papua Police crime unit, Bambang Rudi Pratiknyo, as saying the three had been charged for treason against the state.

Mr Bambang said Mr Nela admitted he came to the Kasepo airstrip under the orders of, and after threats from, Decky Nembiri, who allegedly deserted the Indonesian Military. Mr Decky is reported to also be one of the leaders of Free Papua Organisation, or OPM, separatist group.

An anti-terror police unit managed to retake the isolated airstrip on Saturday. Two members of the armed group and a civilian were killed in the raid.

Jakarta court frees Aussies in Papua

The Australian - June 11, 2009

Stephen Fitzpatrick, Jakarta – Five Australians jailed in Papua for illegally flying into the Indonesian province without visas last year have won their freedom in the country's Supreme Court.

The group – pilot William Scott-Bloxam; his wife, Vera; and friends Hubert Hofer, Keith Mortimer and Karen Burke – is expected home within days, once paperwork is done.

The chief judge on the three-member panel hearing the application, Djoko Sarwoko, confirmed the ruling to The Australian yesterday. "Yes, it's been decided," Justice Sarwoko said.

The five would have been "having beer and prawns to celebrate" after receiving the news last night, Brisbane-based friend Vicki Sparks said, warning they would be drained and "mentally fragile" after their nine-month ordeal.

The quintet had already had their convictions and sentences of three years for Mr Scott-Bloxam, and two years for each of the other four, overturned in March in the Jayapura High Court, in Papua.

However, under Indonesia's labyrinthine legal system, they were then forced to wait while the Supreme Court in Jakarta considered an extra appeal by local prosecutors against the acquittals.

That prosecution appeal was partly a result of poor communication between the local prosecutors and the Attorney-General's Department in Jakarta, where there had already been agreement at senior levels that the five would be allowed to return to Australia without challenge.

News reporting of their acquittal, and public criticisms by members of the group of the local prosecutor's office, has since been cited as the key reason why officials in the Papuan town of Merauke acted so quickly at the time to rearrest the group.

But the Supreme Court has refused to consider the prosecution appeal in the case of the four passengers, and threw out that in Mr Scott-Bloxam's case after judging it wanting, The Australian has learned.

There has been a sense of urgency at the highest levels of the Indonesian judiciary to have the case dealt with quickly, lest it turn into a public issue, with Australians claiming unfair treatment under Jakarta's court system.

"The biggest thing was not to upset the Indonesians – or it could become another Schapelle Corby case," Ms Sparks said.

Lawyer Efrem Fangohoy said yesterday Mr Scott-Bloxam had already been able to inspect his twin-engined light aircraft to determine that it was ready to leave.

The group arrived in Papua on September 12 last year from Horn Island in far north Queensland, claiming they planned a weekend investigating tourism opportunities.

They said they did not realise they were required to get a visa before arriving in the country.

Merauke Five cleared for return to Australian

Associated Press - June 10, 2009

Five middle-aged Australians held for nine months in West Papua for immigration offences have been cleared by Indonesia's Supreme Court, clearing the way for their return home.

The Queenslanders – pilot William Scott-Bloxam, his wife Vera, and passengers Keith Mortimer, Hubert Hofer and Karen Burke – were arrested last September for flying into the troubled Indonesian province without visas or clearance.

Mr Scott-Bloxam was sentenced to three years' jail, and the others to two years.

Their convictions were overturned earlier this year but they were banned from leaving the provincial capital Merauke so that prosecutors could appeal against the acquittals to the Supreme Court.

Supreme Court spokesman Hatta Ali on Wednesday said the court did not agree with the original sentences. "The judges have refused all appeals from prosecutors," Ali said. "They (the Australians) are freed."

The group's lawyer, Efrem Fangohoy, said they were very grateful for the decision.

"It is rare to find people who can be just and fair in a situation like this, in a case that involves two countries," he said. "The judges have been very bold and fair in making their decisions. I'm very proud. This has lifted the nation's dignity."

Once papers have been processed, the group will finally be free to return to Australia, Fangohoy said.

Mark Bousen, a friend of the Australians who has been campaigning for their release, welcomed the decision. "We've been battling for a while but this is terrific news."

There are strict restrictions placed on visiting Papua, troubled by a low-level separatist insurgency since the 1960s.

Australians who flew illegally into Papua to be freed

The Australian - June 10, 2009

Stephen Fitzpatrick, Jakarta – Five Australians jailed in Papua for illegally flying into the Indonesian province without visas last year have won their freedom in the country's Supreme Court.

The group – pilot William Scott-Bloxam, his wife Vera Scott- Bloxam and friends Hubert Hofer, Keith Mortimer and Karen Burke – are expected to return home within days, once paperwork is completed.

Justice Djoko Sarwoko, the chief judge on the three-member panel hearing the application, confirmed the ruling to The Australian tonight. "Yes, it's been decided," Justice Sarwoko said.

The quintet had already had their convictions and sentences of three years for Mr Scott-Bloxam, and two years for each of the other four, overturned in March the Jayapura High Court, in Papua.

However under Indonesia's labyrinthine legal system, they were then forced to wait while the Supreme Court in Jakarta considered an extra appeal by local prosecutors against the acquittals.

That prosecution appeal was partly a result of poor communication between the local prosecutors and the Attorney General's department in Jakarta, where there had already been agreement at senior levels that the five would be allowed to return to Australia without challenge.

However news reporting of their acquittal, and public criticisms by members of the group of the local prosecutor's office, has since been cited as the key reason why Merauke officials acted so quickly at the time to rearrest the group.

But the Supreme Court has refused to even consider the prosecution appeal in the case of the four passengers, and threw out Mr Scott-Bloxam's case after judging it wanting, The Australian has learned.

There has been a sense of urgency at the highest levels of the Indonesian judiciary to have the case dealt with quickly, lest it turn into a public issue with Australians claiming unfair treatment at the hands of Jakarta's court system.

The five, aged between 50 and 60, can expect to be home within days. Lawyer Efrem Fangohoy said yesterday Mr Scott-Bloxam had already been able to inspect his twin-engined light aircraft to determine that it was ready to leave.

"We're waiting for the judgement to be sent to Papua – we hope that will happen within a week, and then they can have their passports back and go home," Mr Fangohoy said.

The group arrived in Papua on September 12 last year from Horn Island in far north Queensland, claiming they planned a weekend investigating tourism opportunities.

They said they did not realise they were required to get a visa before arriving in the country. They were also required to pay fines of nearly $AUD4000 under Indonesia's aviation law.

More Brimob officers sent to Jayapura

Jakarta Post - June 9, 2009

Angela Flassy, Jayapura – The government is sending reinforcement to Papua ahead of the July 8 presidential election by deploying three platoons of the elite police Mobile Brigade (Brimob).

Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Widodo A.S. said two platoons would be sent from Jakarta and one from Makassar, South Sulawesi. Earlier in April, two Brimob platoons were sent from Jakarta and Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi.

Widodo arrived Monday in Papua with Home Minister Mardiyanto, Indonesian Military (TNI) chief Gen. Djoko Santoso, National Police chief Gen. Bambang Hendarso Danuri, State Intelligence Agency (BIN) chief Syamsir Siregar and 15 other officials from the various security agencies.

Widodo said the visit was held to gauge Papua's readiness to hold the election. "With the recent escalation in security problems, we are sending three more Brimob platoons," he said after arriving in Jayapura.

The two-day visit will see the entourage meet Monday evening with Papua and West Papua leaders, including governors, provincial legislative councils, the Papua People's Council, the regional General Elections Commissions (KPUD) and Elections Supervisory Committees, and the Jayapura mayor and regent.

On Tuesday, the entourage will meet with the Cendrawasih Military Command chief, Jayapura Main Naval Base chief, Jayapura Air Force Base chief, Sarmi regent and Mamberamo acting regent.

Security in Papua has deteriorated since the April 9 legislative polls. A day before polling day, a Molotov cocktail was found in the Tami River estuary. On polling day, the Abepura Police station was attacked, while the rector's office at Cendrawasih University was set on fire.

Other incidents in Jayapura included the shooting of civilians in East Koya and a fire at the Papua KPUD office. There was also an attack on police officers collecting ballots in Tinggi Nambut, Puncak Jaya regency, and the seizure of the Kapeso airstrip in Mamberamo Raya regency in early May by a group of 150 armed men allegedly led by a military deserter. Police stormed the airfield early Saturday after weeks of negotiations. Three people were killed and six others injured in the incident.

Papua Police chief Insp. Gen. F.X. Bagus Ekodanto identified the leader as Dekcy Imbiri, allegedly skilled in battlefield strategy and assembling makeshift firearms. Bagus said the police had yet to identify the unit Dekcy was from.

Cendrawasih Military Command chief Maj. Gen. A.Y. Nasution, however, denied the claims, saying only two soldiers had a last name Imbiri. "One is stationed in Serui and the other is dead," he said.

Police in Papua retake airstrip from 'TNI deserter'-led group

Jakarta Post - June 8, 2009

Angela Flassy, Jayapura – After more than a month, police have finally managed to retake an isolated airstrip in the Memberamo Raya regency, Papua province, which was seized by some 150 armed people, allegedly led by an military deserter, in early May.

Three people were killed when an antiterror police unit stormed the Kapeso airstrip early Saturday, state news agency Antara reported Sunday.

Two members of the armed civilian group died in the conflict, Papua Police chief Insp. Gen. F.X. Bagus Ekodanto was quoted as saying.

"Besides that there was a civilian killed in the incident. He was a representative of the (Memberamo) regent, so the death toll was three people in total," he added.

Two other members of the armed group were injured in the raid, and four police officers also suffered serious wounds after coming under fire from bows and arrows, he added.

"We don't know the identities of the two victims (from the group), but the important thing is that we reclaimed control of the airstrip after the group left Kapeso," Bagus said.

The raid was launched at around 1:30 a.m. Saturday after negotiations failed to end the occupation of the airstrip.

"The armed civilian group was successfully stricken back and left their two killed friends and two injured others in Kapeso, while four policemen from out side were hit by arrows," Bagus said.

Media reports earlier linked the armed group to the secessionist Free Papua Organization (OPM), which has waged a low intensity war of independence since it formed in the early 1960s.

However, Bagus said Saturday that among the leaders of the group that seized the airstrip was Decky Imbiri, who allegedly deserted the Indonesian Military (TNI).

"The group's leader is a suspected former TNI member, but we don't know yet which military force he came from. "We are still checking data on the suspect," Bagus said at his office in the provincial capital of Jayapura.

He said Decky deserted the military by fleeing to the jungle. "But we don't know where that happened or his rank as a TNI soldier."

Bagus said that during the raid the police arrested a woman and a 14-year-old boy, both members of the group. The woman, Nela Manseren, and the boy are being questioned by police investigators in Bagusa, near Kapeso village.

The police also confiscated two home-made guns – a revolver and a Mosser – as well as dozens of arrows from the attackers, Bagus said.

The armed group used a church near the runway as its base-camp during the occupation. Bagus said Decky co-led the armed group with Cosmos Makabori.

The Papua police chief said Nela told police investigators that Decky was a "military strategist". Decky recruited at least 150 villagers, mostly youths, in Kapeso, providing them with military training before they seized the airstrip, according to Bagus.

"He reportedly has a spiritual expert who teaches new recruits with religious influence," he added.

Last week, Bagus said that a deadline for resolving the occupation peacefully past on Friday.

Dora Balubun, a priest at the Injili Christian Church (GKI) Synod in Tanah Papua, said last week that her church, which was involved in negotiations with the armed group, believed the attackers were part of a Papuan religious sect called Mandar Makeri.

The sect, according to Dora, believes the Messiah will arrive only after the people fight against the government.

Human rights/law

AGO leadership 'weak,' watchdog says

Jakarta Globe - June 14, 2009

Heru Andriyanto – An unusually high number of complaints and scandals involving public prosecutors reflected the poor leadership of the Attorney General's Office, the head of the Commission for Public Prosecution said on Sunday.

"The series of scandals involving district and provincial prosecutors is an indication of the AGO's poor system," said Amir Hasan Ketaren, chairman of the National Commission for Public Prosecution.

The transfer of the head of the Banten prosecutors' office to another job last week was just the latest in a string of embarrassments involving the AGO, which is struggling to rebuild its reputation after a major bribery scandal last year involving one of its own officials. As a result of the scandal, the senior AGO official was sentenced to 20 years in jail.

"So far this year, we have received reports about bad prosecutors in North Jakarta, West Jakarta and Banten," Amir told the Jakarta Globe on Sunday. "Under previous AGO leadership, we never received as many complaints as we do with the current attorney general. The leadership at the AGO is just so weak."

The Banten transfer coincides with the controversial trial of Prita Mulyasari, a mother of two, for allegedly defaming Omni International Hospital. Other scandals involving district and provincial prosecutors around the country have also tainted the AGO's reputation.

Chief Banten prosecutor Dondy Soedirman was moved to a lower position after he approved the arrest of Prita, who was freed this month after the public outrage over her detention for three weeks at the Tangerang women's prison.

Although Attorney General Hendarman Supandji has described the prosecutors' handling of the case as "unprofessional," the AGO has refused to link Dondy's transfer to the Prita case.

"I can't say if the replacement has anything to do with the ongoing trial," AGO spokesman Jasman Panjaitan said over the weekend. "It's not a demotion because Dondy will remain as a second ranking official in his new post and in fact he is not the only official who has been moved to a different post at this time."

However, Dondy's job transfer came just a few days after an AGO supervisory team questioned him over the defamation case. The defense team for Prita has alleged that prosecutors who handled the case accepted bribes from the hospital. Her detention caused a media uproar and came after an incident when the AGO rejected a police request for the detention of two female district prosecutors in North Jakarta who were accused of stealing over 300 Ecstasy pills from an evidence locker and attempting to sell them for personal gain. But the Jakarta prosecutors' office rejected the police request to extend the detention of Esther Tanak and Dara Veranita on the grounds that their March 23 arrest was made without the approval of the attorney general.

The Esther and Dara remain free although police have charged them with drug crimes.

Last month, the AGO disciplined two district prosecutors in West Jakarta for another controversial drug case in which prosecutors recommended a sentence of only one-and-a-half years for the defendant.

Sultoni, who led the prosecution team against drug trafficker Gunawan Tjahjadi, was fired as after the defendant was controversially sentenced to only one year in jail by the West Jakarta District Court in the Feb. 18 hearing and prosecutors failed to imprison the man as he fled after learning of his conviction.

Although Gunawan was finally arrested on April 19, the trial triggered another uproar with media reporting Sultoni had allegedly accepted at least Rp 5 billion ($495,000) in bribes, a report immediately denied by the AGO.

Suparno, the assistant for general crime at the West Jakarta prosecutors' office, has been denied a promotion for one year as punishment for his role in a similar scandal.

In October last year, the AGO fired a district prosecutors' office head in Gorontalo after he insulted police.

In a taped phone conversation, the prosecutor said "when it comes to corruption cases, prosecutors are smarter than police. Police are all stupid." The recording prompted a red-faced Hendarman to make a personal apology to National Police Chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri.

The attorney general launched an internal reform in the wake of the bribery scandal that landed a record 20-year jail sentence last year for AGO prosecutor Urip Tri Gunawan for taking a $660,000 bribe from a businesswoman who sought to influence the handling of a major embezzlement case involving business tycoon Sjamsul Nursalim.

Two of Hendarman's deputies were also demoted after the court played taped phone conversations between the two and the businesswoman discussing the embezzlement case. However, the two deputies have never been charged.

Under the reform program, AGO officials are strictly banned from personally meeting suspects or witnesses who are facing legal cases being handled at the office.

As of the end of May, the AGO had disciplined 245 prosecutors and non-prosecution officials for various charges, ranging from absence without leave to bribery to taking a second wife.

Serious disciplinary sanctions have also been imposed on 93 officials with punishments ranging from dismissal to demotion.

Wiranto defends his track record before rights activists

Jakarta Post - June 12, 2009

Jakarta – Vice presidential candidate Wiranto still defended his past performance in the military and the government, despite being bombarded by questions and condemnations from human rights activists and victims at the Indonesian Legal Aid Institute Foundation (YLBHI) building on Thursday.

The former chief commander of the Indonesian Military and defense minister who was asked to take responsibility for past human rights abuses in Aceh, the former East Timor province and the May 1998 riots, insisted he had not been involved in the incidents that he said had claimed many lives, as a consequence of measures taken by the government.

A number of human rights activists and law experts, including Todung Mulya Lubis, Bambang Widjojanto, Adnan Buyung Nasution and Gusti Randa, grilled Wiranto about the incidents at the YLBHI building.

Outside, dozens of relatives of human rights victims yelled out against Wiranto's vice presidency, demanding the government form an ad hoc human rights court to try him.

Wiranto, also chairman of the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), reiterated no courts had so far found him guilty of any of the cases. "It doesn't mean I'm not untouchable. I have followed all the processes, but I have never been declared a suspect or a defendant in any human rights case," he said.

He however apologized for his mistakes because he himself regretted the incidents "and the public should also respect my human rights to defend myself".

Human Rights Working Group coordinator Rafendi Djamin and executive director of the Setara Institute for Democracy and Peace Setara Hendardi Thursday reminded the public former generals Wiranto and Prabowo had previously been implicated in a series of human rights violations.

Prabowo, who was former chief of the Army's Strategic Reserve Force (Kostrad), has paired up with Megawati Soekarnoputri for the presidential election.

"It is impossible for presidential and vice presidential candidates who have gross human rights violation records to enforce human rights," Rafendy said. He said the two were using the campaign season to redress their poor track record.

Hendardi opposed the dialogue and said their visit to the Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation building would certainly aggravate human rights victims and their relatives.

Hendardi said the two's human rights campaigns were really a manipulation of facts in which they were part of the problem to be solved, and voters should not be deceived by their empty political pledges. (fmb)

Former justice says money still huge factor at judiciary

Jakarta Post - June 11, 2009

Jakarta – Despite efforts to reform the judiciary and improve its overall performance, corrupt practices enforced by a "judicial mafia" are here to stay, a discussion was told Wednesday.

"My case has been stuck at the Supreme Court for more than 30 years," Haryanto told the discussion at the Sultan Hotel.

"I don't know what else to do. I won't be giving them the money they have demanded. It's almost impossible to get justice in this country without money," Haryanto said.

The retired civil servant first ran into difficulties with the system in 1974, when a dispute erupted over land he claimed to own. "I bought the land legally but somehow another person claimed to be the real owner," he said.

Believing he had a stronger case against the plaintiff, Haryanto insisted on not using money to win the case.

"I was in a situation where I believed money didn't play any role in judicial processes. I won the case at the district court level, then at the high court all the way to the Supreme Court," he said.

When the defendant filed a judicial review against the verdict in his favor, the situation changed dramatically. "I wasn't officially informed about the judicial review," he said.

"When I asked about my case, they said it was in progress but never explained how or why. Apparently, the Supreme Court only processed cases with money backing them. Therefore, they put my case at the very bottom of the pile for years."

He insisted on not paying bribes for years after that incident, but to this day the ownership issues surrounding the land remain unclear.

Laica Marzuki, a retired justice, said the practice of trading cases in the country's judicial bodies was a reality. "That is no longer a secret. I have some experience with it," he told the audience.

"Clerks, administrative staffs, and even office boys were moonlighting as 'middle men'," he said. "They bridge the judges and the defendants and plaintiffs."

Meanwhile, law expert Abdul Asri Harahap said that corrupt practices in judicial institutions would not go away as long as the system was not reformed. "The current system is awful. Large holes provide ample room for corruption," Asri, also an executive of the Alumni Group of the Association of Islamic Students, said.

If the Supreme Court had clearer rules about the deadlines for handling cases, Asri said, Haryanto's situation would never have developed to where it is today.

"There is no time limit set at each stage of the judiciary inquiry. That frees up the chance to ask for a bribe," he said.

Laica said when he retired from the Supreme Court, there were thousands of unfinished cases still waiting to be processed.

"I admit that our system is still weak," he said. "However, I am optimistic that we can stop the practice of trading cases. Let's give Pak Harifin Tumpa [Chief Justice] a chance to do that." (bbs)

Past rights abuses no priority for candidates

Jakarta Post - June 8, 2009

Dicky Christanto and Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – All presidential candidates contesting the July 8 poll have promised to better protect human rights but failed to commit to improving much-criticized poor law enforcements of past human rights violations.

Democratic Party deputy chairman Anas Urbaningrum said Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Boediono would improve human rights protections if elected.

"It would be better if we didn't always go back to the past but instead focused on the future. The most important thing is to improve human rights protections to prevent past cases from happening again."

Anas said SBY would place human rights issue as his top priority.

Jusuf Kalla and Wiranto also said they were ready to espouse human rights to achieve a quality democratic system. Kalla- Wiranto campaign team member Yus Usmanegara said the pair would respect human rights, including freedom of speech.

"There is no bargaining for human rights if the country wants to advance democracy. So, for JK-Wiranto, human rights must be upheld," Yus told The Jakarta Post on Saturday. "Pak Kalla's platform also ensures that the media will not be muzzled."

When asked about Wiranto's human rights track record, Yus said it was a smear campaign since Wiranto had never been named as a suspect. "I think the fact that he contested the 2004 presidential election proved that Wiranto has nothing to do with the alleged human rights violations."

Wiranto, as the military commander from 1998 to 1999, was accused of crimes against humanity in Timor Leste, which claimed lives of thousands leading up to and subsequent to the 1999 referendum that saw locals opting for independence.

Retired general Wiranto, who is now chairman of the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), was also in command during the 1998 May riots, in which thousands of men and women died on the streets of Jakarta. Wiranto never faced trial.

Deputy Chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) Fadli Zon said Megawati Soekarnoputri and Prabowo planned to develop people's economic and social rights if elected later on.

"We would prioritize improving people's economic and social rights as we have noticed that these two fields are the most vulnerable parts of our people that being hit by crisis these days," he told the Post Saturday.

"It is not that we are not paying serious attention to people's political rights but that, for now, I think it would be better for us to develop the fields that have a direct impact on the people's livelihoods," He said further implementation could be found in the pair's eight working programs, which aimed to provide jobs, among other things.

Prabowo, former Army Special Force (Kopassus) commander, was also accused of the kidnapping and murder of anti-Soeharto activists during the 1998 turmoil but never faced trial.

Both Wiranto and Prabowo managed to develop political comebacks after creating their own political parties. Wiranto founded Hanura while Prabowo established the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).

The two parties secured the top ten ranks out of 38 parties competing in legislative elections in April.

Human rights activists have repeatedly called on the government to enforce the law by jailing past human rights violators, and have asked that human rights topics be included in the presidential debate. Anas said SBY would have no problem debating human rights issues. (bbs)

Munir supporters cheer Muchdi acquittal inquiry

Jakarta Globe - June 8, 2009

Farouk Arnaz – Supporters of murdered rights activist Munir Said Thalib on Monday welcomed the Judicial Commission's decision to question the three judges who acquitted former intelligence official Muchdi Purwoprandjono of charges that he had ordered the hit.

"We urge the Judicial Commission to pass the results on to the Supreme Court so they can consider it when they issue the verdict," Usman Hamid, a member of the Committee of Action and Solidarity for Munir (Kasum), said during a press conference.

The Attorney General's Office, which had sought a 15-year imprisonment term for Muchdi, lodged an appeal with the Supreme Court in January against the controversial acquittal. The court is yet to issue its verdict.

"We demand the Supreme Court issue its verdict before the presidential election in July so that the verdict will be purely based on the law and will have no political interference," Usman said, adding that vice presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is widely known to be a close friend of Muchdi.

Both men served in the Army's Special Forces (Kopassus) and are currently active in the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).

In urging the Supreme Court to issue a verdict, Usman said that "they were able to issue the verdict after only five months for Pollycarpus Priyanto," referring to the former Garuda pilot who is currently serving a 20-year sentence for the murder.

Muchdi, who was accused of masterminding the murder on Sept. 7, 2004, was acquitted of all charges by the district court on Dec. 31, 2008, sparking outrage among local and international rights groups.

The panel of judges hearing the case said prosecutors had failed to prove any link between Muchdi and Pollycarpus.

Munir died on a Garuda flight to Amsterdam, after Pollycarpus administered a fatal dose of arsenic to his drink during a stopover in Singapore.

"We have been trying to find an explanation as to why the Supreme Court has not issued their verdict on this case, but we failed," said Suciwati, Munir's widow.

Legal experts and academics from four universities in April launched an examination into the acquittal, concluding that the judges had wrongly interpreted the law.

"We will never stop. We will keep demanding that all parties try to investigate this case," said Hendardi, another Kasum member.

Labour/migrant workers

Government 'too weak' to protect 2.1 million child workers

Jakarta Post - June 13, 2009

Jakarta – The government has failed to strictly enforce the Child Protection Law in regards to the increasing number of underage workers, despite the law having been passed nine years ago.

According to the National Commission on Child Protection, there were 2.1 million children aged under 15 years old in 2008 found in risky workplaces across the nation.

"They are working in jobs classified as the worst forms of child labor, like on farms, in factories, in mines, or even as prostitutes," the secretary-general of the commission Arist Merdeka Sirait said Friday.

The commission recorded 1.8 million child workers in 2007. "An extra 300,000 child workers within just one year is a very significant number," he said.

International Labor Organization (ILO) data showed 1.1 million Indonesian children under the age of 15 were working in 2007, and of that 40 percent, or 440,000, were girls.

Arist said the government had not done enough to fight child labor despite the enactment of the child protection law in 2000. The law is a ratification of the 1999 ILO convention No. 182 concerning the prohibition and immediate action for the elimination of the worst forms of child labor.

"Unfortunately, the law has become a 'paper tiger'. The government has failed to produce concrete programs to implement the legislation. They have established a lot of policies and institutions but has taken no significant action.

"No need to look at the children working at the palm plantations in remote areas in Kalimantan, or those in the fishing ships in the Maluku sea. Just look around Jakarta, and you can find hundreds of child street musicians at the traffic lights."

Job opportunities for children have tempted parents to send their children to workplaces, Arist said. (bbs)

Girls first to leave school when times get hard: ILO

Jakarta Globe - June 12, 2009

Nurfika Osman – The financial downturn combined with cultural prejudices that favor boys over girls is likely to cause an increase in the number of young females dropping out of school, a discussion on child labor said on Thursday.

Alan Boulton, the International Labor Organization's (ILO) country director, said that economic pressures on families force children to leave school, but who in the family drops out is often decided by cultural and community prejudices.

"The thinking within these communities is that it is more important to educate boys rather than girls," Alan said. "This thinking needs to change. These long-held prejudices seriously underestimate the importance of education for girls," he said.

Data from the Ministry of National Education showed in 2002 that at the primary school level, out of every 10 children who dropped out, six were girls. At senior secondary schools, it was seven girls for every three boys.

The International Labor Organization figures show that 218 million children globally were trapped in the workforce in 2004. For children aged 5 to 11, girls make up 51 percent while among those aged 12-14, boys are at 55 percent with girls at 45 percent.

Boulton said education was the most effective and desirable way to eliminate child labor. "Educated girls are more likely to have better incomes as adults, marry later, have fewer and healthier children, and to ensure that their own children are educated, helping to avoid future increases in child labor," he said.

Arum Ratnawati, the national chief adviser of the ILO's International Program on the Elimination of Child Labor (ILO- IPEC), said the ILO would cooperate with the government, stakeholders and nongovernmental organizations to address the issue.

"We are going to give technical assistance and encourage the government to make policies that respond to this issue," Arum said. "We hope by commemorating the World Day Against Child Labor, we will remember the plight of child laborers and what we can do to tackle this problem."

The ILO and nongovernmental organizations plan to hold a rally titled "Give Girls a Chance – End Child Labor" on June 21 starting from Atma Jaya University and the Ministry of National Education offices and finishing at South Plaza in the Bung Karno Stadium.

Child labor not only hinders education but also plays a negative role in the mental and physical development of children. Under government regulations based on the ratification of ILO Convention No. 138, children under 15 should not be working.

"Because it's election time, I think it's worth making a point about child labor," Boulton said. "It's not just a matter of increasing law enforcement to prevent child labor, it's a matter of having integrated policies to deal with the issue."

Thousands of Indonesian children exploited for sex trade: ILO

Jakarta Post - June 12, 2009

Jakarta – The global economic crisis has forced a greater number of children into the workforce, particularly girls, many of whom are exploited for commercial sex, the International Labor Organization said Thursday.

"Recent global estimates indicate the number of child workers had been falling. But the financial crisis that began in late 2008 is threatening to erode this progress," Patrick Daru, chief technical adviser at the ILO's Jakarta office, said Thursday at a press conference.

The crisis has exacerbated the income problems of poor families around the world, including in Indonesia, making them tend to send their children to work rather than to school.

"This is the supply and demand theory at work," he added. "Employers use child labor because they're cheaper, while families also need additional income."

The ILO is focusing on girl workers for this year's World Day Against Child Labor on June 12.

"The ratio of girl to boy workers has increased significantly during the past few years," said Arum Ratnawati, the ILO Jakarta technical adviser. "For instance, the ratio of girls to boys on the streets in Indonesia has increased from 20 percent in 1999 to 50 percent in 2009."

ILO data from 2007 shows that of the 1.1 million Indonesian working children under the age of 14, 40 percent or 440,000 are girls. Of this number, an estimated 40,000 to 70,000 are victims of sexual exploitation.

"Girls are more likely to be the victims of trafficking into prostitution," Arum said. "Approximately 21,000 prostituted children, both boys and girls, are located in Java."

Child prostitutes can be found easily in public places like streets and parks, or in "hidden" places of prostitution like beauty and massage parlors, discotheques, cafis and hotels, as well as karaoke lounges, leaving them vulnerable to contracting HIV/AIDS or forming a drug habit, Arum said.

Alan Boulton, director of the ILO's Jakarta office, said his organization was carrying out a number of programs in collaboration with the Manpower and Transmigration Ministry and the National Education Ministry.

When asked by The Jakarta Post if the Indonesian government should take responsibility for the increasing number of child workers, Alan said, "I understand the child labor problem is huge. Give the government the opportunity to work, as I see it is already on track."

The Manpower and Transmigration Ministry's director general of manpower improvement and supervision, I Gusti Made Arka, admitted eradicating child labor would be very difficult. "It may be impossible to eliminate all underage workers," he told the Post. (bbs)

Shoe workers rally to demand unpaid wage

Jakarta Post - June 11, 2009

Tangerang – Thousands of employees of the shoe manufacturer, Jatake Industrial Plant, staged a rally in Tangerang demanding the company pay their workers.

More than 1,000 out of a total 3,000 workers were downgraded to home-based workers due to declining overseas orders. However, they were promised to still receive 80 percent of their monthly wage.

"The management only paid home-based workers 80 percent of their monthly wages in March 2007, for the following months we only received 30 percent and sometimes we do not receive any money," said Ida, an employee who has been working for the company for 17 years.

None of the management staff were available to comment.

Workers rally to demand unpaid wages

Jakarta Post - June 10, 2009

Multa Fidrus, Tangerang – Thousands of workers of shoe manufacturer PT Prima Inreksa in Tangerang, west of Jakarta staged a rally Wednesday at the company's plant to demand that their employer pay the wages of 1,000 workers who have been laid off since March 2007.

The lay-off came as the company saw a decline in orders from its overseas buyers, but the employer promised to pay 80 percent of the affected workers' monthly wages.

"But in reality the management only fulfilled its promise once in March 2007 and since then we have received 30 percent of our monthly wage or not at all," Ida, who has been working for 17 years, said.

Some 2,000 company workers who are still employed have gone on strike since Monday in a show of solidarity for their laid-off colleagues, putting the company's production to a halt.

The company used to produce shoes for Adidas, but the German sports apparel terminated its contract in 2006. The Indonesian firm now supplies shoes of various brands for export to the United States and other countries.

Environment/natural disasters

Indonesian forest fires shroud Malaysia in haze

Reuters - June 12, 2009

Pekanbaru – The number of forest fires raging in Sumatra has increased, with winds carrying choking smoke over parts of Malaysia and slashing visibility, officials said on Friday.

The fires are a regular occurrence during the dry season in areas such as Sumatra and Borneo, but the situation has deteriorated in the last decade, with timber and plantation firms often blamed for deliberately starting fires to clear land.

The worst haze hit in 1997 and 1998, when drought caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon led to major fires. The smoke spread to Singapore, Malaysia and south Thailand and cost more than $9 billion from damage to tourism, transport and farming.

Risks for another bad period appear to have risen with the prospect of a return of El Nino this year.

An official said that 47 hot spots were recorded in Riau by Thursday, based on satellite surveillance, and temperatures were abnormally high at 35 degrees Celsius.

"There is a potential for the number of fire spots to rise and haze conditions to worsen if there is no rain," said Blucer Dolok Saribu, head of the meteorology and geophysics agency in Riau's provincial capital of Pekanbaru.

The haze is likely to remain a threat until at least August. The rainy season usually begins in September.

The city, which frequently suffers from haze, had been shrouded in unpleasant yellow-colored smoke earlier this week, although by Friday visibility had improved after some rains.

Rahmad Tauladani, a meteorological analyst in Pekanbaru, said wind had blown the haze over neighboring Malaysia, but said that no flights had been canceled so far, with visibility of 6,000 meters, above the minimum of 1,000 meters required.

In Malaysia, the haze reduced visibility in some areas near the capital Kuala Lumpur to as low as 5,000 meters, the country's Department of Environment said, with two areas recording air readings that were unhealthy.

"We are monitoring the situation. We will decide later if any action should be taken," the department's Director General Rosnani Ibrahim said.

In 2002, Southeast Asian countries signed the Asean Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, but Indonesia has yet to ratify the pact.

It is illegal to carry out slash-and-burn land clearing in Indonesia, but prosecutions take time and few have stuck.

Weather expert Tauladani said current high temperatures had increased the risk that fires could spread to peatland areas.

Environmentalists are particularly concerned about an increasing trend toward converting peatland forests, which creates highly flammable areas of peat soil that produce more smoke when burned.

Indonesia has identified the Asean haze pact as one of six "crucial" bills that should be passed before the current legislative session expires at the end of September.

But with politicians distracted by the July 8 presidential election, it is unclear whether there will be time in the current term to pass it. The pact calls for signatories to work together on monitoring and combating haze.

Lapindo mud could harm Surabaya mangrove forest

Jakarta Post - June 10, 2009

Indra Harsaputra, Surabaya – Mud dumped into the sea from the Lapindo mudflow through the Porong river will impact coastal ecosystems from eastern Surabaya to Pasuruan on Madura Island, researchers warn.

A 2,300-hectare mangrove forest in the Surabaya municipality's Mangrove Center is now at risk, as it is only 30 kilometers from the mudflow outlet.

Edy Hendras Wahyono, a mangrove researcher at the Nature Conservation and Education Foundation (YPKA), said his team would carry out comprehensive research on potential threats from the mud to the mangrove forest.

"We'll analyze the mudflow content, as well as the condition of mangroves planted by the Sidoarjo Mudflow Mitigation Agency (BPLS) at the end of the Porong river," he told The Jakarta Post recently, after a presentation about a visibility study on mangrove development before Surabaya Mayor Bambang Dwo Hartono and representatives of cigarette manufaturer PT H.M. Sampoerna.

Co-funded by the municipality and Sampoerna, the Surabaya Mangrove Center has been designed as a conservation, research and ecotourism area, like the Muara Angke Wildlife Reserve in Jakarta and the Mangrove Information Center in Bali.

Edy said Surabaya's east coast was "very feasible" for a conservation site, considering its natural condition and the existence of 16 mangrove species, 137 bird species, 50 insect species, seven mammal species, 10 herpetofauna species, 18 fish species and seven crustacean species.

"There are also mangrove tigers, long-tailed monkeys that pick up mangrove fruit with their tails. red dragonflies, which indicates a potential sign of water springs in the vicinity, and Black Drongo birds that are rarely found in Indonesia. as well as migratory birds from New Zealand," he said.

The whole ecosystem was in danger, he went on, thanks to the mudflow, coupled with plastic waste from the nearby Ria Ken-jeran beach and Surabaya's Tanjung Perak port.

Marine expert Muktasor of the 10th November Institute of Technology (ITS) also warned the Lapindo mud would be spread out by waves, endangering fishermen's catches from Pasuruan through to Probolinggo and potentially making the Madura Strait shallower through silt deposits.

However, deputy BPLS operational head Soffian Hadi said the mud being channeled out to sea would not reach the Madura strait or beaches in Pasuruan, but would settle along the Sidoarjo coast.

In response to warnings, Mayor Bambang has ordered an immediate study into the potential threat from the mud, to guard against damage to mangrove forests, as 40 percent of the forests have already been destroyed by illegal logging and mangrove diseases.

"I have prepared all the things necessary to develop the Surabaya east coast as a conservation site, so my successor will continue this program when I'm no longer in office," he said.

"To strengthen our legal base, we have also asked the government to designate the area for conservation."

He also said the administration had sent a letter requesting the State Land Agency (BPN) to stop issuing land certificates in the mangrove forest, pointing out a 167-hectare area allocated for planned buildings and aquaculture ponds.

Corruption & graft

Mirrors on the wall for lawmakers

Jakarta Post - June 12, 2009

Jakarta – Reminiscent of the Snow White tale, the Indonesian Corruption Watch (ICW) Friday presented House of Representatives lawmakers with mirrors that will speak only the truth.

ICW political corruption division researcher Abdullah Dahlan said he hoped the gift would allow the lawmakers to reflect on themselves and their poor performance during their five years in office.

"I think mirrors, rather than gold rings, are better and more suitable for the legislators," Abdullah said, referring to the rewards House Speaker Agung Laksono has promised to all 500 lawmakers who will complete their term on Sept. 30.

Abdullah said the ICW deemed the legislators did not deserve the rings, which will reportedly cost the state Rp 5 billion (US$495,000).

"So many of them are involved in graft cases and sex scandals. It would be better for the House to allocate the budget to something more important, such as acceleration of the Corruption Court bill deliberation," he said.

The latest Transparency International survey found the House retained its billing as the most corrupt state institution. (hdt)

Graft still homework for elected president

Jakarta Post - June 10, 2009

Adianto P. Simamora and Erwida Maulia, Jakarta – As the seventh-most corrupt country in the world, based on the Global Corruption Barometer 2009 survey by Transparency International, government of Indonesia is struggling to fight corruption – whoever the president is.

With the presidential election a month away, all three presidential candidates have begun to offer their platforms in overcoming the already-rooted problem. Incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's camp boasted of the present administration's efforts in fighting corruption.

"We've seen regents, governors, generals and [former] ministers sent to jail during SBY's tenure. Every day we see the Corruption Eradication Commission [KPK] handle new cases," Yudhoyono's Democratic Party deputy chairman Andi Mallarangeng said.

Among those being tried for graft includes Yudhoyono's son's father-in-law, former Bank Indonesia deputy governor Aulia Pohan. Prosecutors have demanded a four-year jail term for Aulia due to his alleged involvement in the illegal distribution of Rp 100 billion (US$9.9 million) from the central bank's Indonesian Banking Development Foundation (YPPI) in 2003.

Many, however, criticized Yudhoyono's success, slamming the KPK for being discriminatory in probing corruption cases allegedly involving his ministers.

Forestry Minister MS Kaban and State Minister for the National Development Planning Paskah Suzetta are among those implicated in graft cases. They were summoned to the Corruption Court as witnesses but still walked free from the cases.

Another candidate, incumbent Vice President Jusuf Kalla, has offered an "integrated solution to clean bureaucracy and improve public welfare through better education and economic condition".

"Kalla will come with a sustainable corruption eradication concept by upholding law and raising people's welfare. If the gap between the rich and the poor remains wide, the antigraft efforts will be slow," Kalla's campaign team member Poempida Hidayutullah said.

Simplifying the overlapping institutions is expected to make the fight against graft work effectively.

Another Kalla's campaign team member Rully Chairul Azwar said the Golkar Party chairman would focus on big corruption cases, regardless of political links to the cases.

Gayus Lumbuun of Megawati Soekarnoputri's campaign team highlighted the former president's success in establishing the KPK.

However, the public still also remembered that Megawati had appointed MA Rahman as the attorney general. Rahman was later implicated in a graft case, especially with his ownerships over properties in several areas such as Cinere and Bekasi. He remains free from investigations.

Megawati was also well-remembered for her policy to "wipe out" the Bank Indonesia liquidity support (BLBI) that had caused Rp 600 trillion of state losses, even though the policy to exonerate former bankers was part of a scheme agreed by the government and the International Monetary Fund.

On the more urgent issue of the Corruption Court bill, the three candidates could only promise to push lawmakers to complete it before their tenure ends in October.

Legislators promised earlier to pass the bill in August, despite criticism over its slow deliberation. They are focusing on three major topics in the bill: The composition of the panel of judges, the procedural code and the disparities between the Attorney General's Office and the KPK. Should the House fail to meet the Dec. 19, 2009 deadline, the government needs to draft a regulation-in-lieu-of-law.

Corruption eradication

Statements:

"Now people are hunted down because of corruption, but the cause of the problem has never been touched. It's actually a matter of management." – Megawati Soekarnoputri, March 2008

"The people will never believe all the thoughts, energy and time dedicated by the state to improve public welfare when officials are busy taking care of their own businesses." – Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, June 2009

"The government is committed to ensuring that whoever is found guilty of corruption will face the law... This is proof of our progress in combating corruption, and we value the efforts by the Corruption Eradication Committee (KPK). In the past there was no such practice as taping phone conversations." Jusuf Kalla, June 2008

Track records:

The Attorney General's Office under then President Megawati's administration dismisses the government's antigraft task force – August 2001 As president Megawati signed a presidential decree on the leaders of the new Corruption Eradication Committee (KPK) – December 2003.

Megawati announces the controversial "release and discharge" policy which exonerated former bank owners who owed billions of dollars in debt, after they received some US$16 billion in government liquidity loans to help the banks survive in the wake of the late 1990s financial crisis. – January , 2003

SBY unveiled a plan to issue a government regulation-in-lieu-of- law should lawmakers fail to pass a corruption court bill by the end of this year. – March 2009

"If a citizen breaks the law because of his ignorance, we are guilty as well. Worse, [we] let them be trapped instead of just reminding them." – SBY, in response to the KPK's arrest of several suspects allegedly caught red-handed in the act of bribery. – April 2008

Vice President Kalla said that corruption eradication has made state officials nervous, causing delay in taking decisions. "Strict measures of KPK can also result in uneasiness." – December 2006

Kalla defended the embattled attorney general Hendarman Supandji as critics clamored for his resignation over an embarrassing corruption scandal involving top prosecutors.

"In my experience, among all the attorney generals, he's the one with the best level of professionalism and knowledge," he said. - June 2008

[Dicky Christanto contributed to the story.]

Islam/religion

Ahmadiyah refugees kept in misery, seek Jakarta help

Jakarta Post - June 9, 2009

Panca Nugraha, Mataram – West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) administration has reportedly dropped plans to buy assets of local Jamaah Ahmadiyah followers, forcing them to remain in refugee camps.

The cancellation sees the groups' plight continue, since they have been forbidden from returning home to the hamlet of Ketapang in Gegerung village, West Lombok, or allowed to move elsewhere.

At least 126 followers of the Islamic minority sect, who were violently evicted by a Muslim mob in 2006, have on numerous occasions been prevented by local authorities from returning home – the authorities citing security reasons.

As a trade-off, in March the provincial administration claimed it was planning to buy the refugees' assets so they could leave their refugee accommodation at the Transito dormitory in the NTB capital of Mataram, for safe areas outside Ketapang.

However, on Monday NTB's Ahmadiyah leader, Jauzi Djafar, said both the provincial and regency administrations had told the refugees that they lacked funds and were not interested in buying the land and houses in Ketapang.

Jauzi said information of the cancellation had been received late last month through Tuan Guru Haji Anwar, a special envoy to NTB Governor Zainul Majdi.

"Tuan Guru Anwar delivered the information through a verbal notification, and we recorded it. So far, all our official correspondence has been responded to verbally."

Jauzi blasted the local government for betraying the Ahmadiyah refugees saying the move to buy their assets was "merely camouflage" to delay the refugees' return.

The refugees had asked the government to pay Rp 500 million for their combined assets, comprising 20 houses and plots of land, Jauzi said.

Separately, NTB administration spokesman Andy Hadiyanto could not confirm or deny the decision on the purchase of refugees' assets. "I cannot explain this in detail yet. We have to coordinate with local administrations and the Religious Affairs Office. This issue is still being discussed," Andy said.

Jauzi further said that the refugees were now pinning their hopes on the central government to provide much-needed help.

They would write to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono concerning the decision against purchasing their assets and to tell him of their wish to return home.

"We don't want to allow the local administration to report to the central government that this asset issue is still being discussed, but (wish to state) the fact that it seems the local administration has deliberately neglected our fate," Jauzi said.

The local government had not provided aid to the refugees since January, Ahmadiyah refugee coordinator Syahidin said.

Last month, state electricity firm PT PLN cut power supplies to the Transito dormitory because the refugees could not afford the monthly bill. "How could we pay the electricity bill, when we even have difficulty getting enough food to survive?" Syahidin said.

The Ahmadiyah followers were several times attacked by their Muslim neighbors of different faiths in February 2006, forcing them to flee their homes in Ketapang.

In July 2005, an estimated 10,000 members of the Indonesian Muslim Solidarity group attacked the Indonesian Ahmadiyah Congregation complex in Bogor, West Java.

The Religious Affairs Ministry had issued a circular in 2004, branding Ahmadiyah teachings as "heresy", based on its belief that its founder, Mirza Gulam Ahmad, was a prophet (after Muhammad).

The attackers claimed Ahmadiyah members had engaged in the practice of teaching local people about their sect.

Elections/political parties

A close-up on the poll prediction game

Jakarta Globe - June 14, 2009

Camelia Pasandaran & Ferry Irwanto – The recent release of survey results from polling institutions linked to political campaign teams has brought into sharp focus the purpose behind the poll results.

The various surveys, which were dutifully reported by many media organizations that failed to question links between the polling institutions and specific campaign teams, all place incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in front of the pack, but by wildly varying extents.

In "Bandwagons, Underdogs, the Titanic and the Red Cross: The Influence of Public Opinion Polls on Voters," authors Galen A. Irwin and Joop J.M. van Holsteyn argue that in terms of election surveys, other than the pollster's credibility, there are two important themes; namely, the bandwagon effect and the underdog effect, which both influence voter behavior.

The book, published in 2000, defines the bandwagon effect as being closely related to opportunism, where people often do and believe things because many others are doing the same.

The underdog effect, in contrast, occurs mainly when people vote out of sympathy for the party perceived to be losing the electio n.

Though the book argues that there is less empirical evidence for the existence of the latter effect, Yudhoyono's case provides a classic example in the Indonesian context after his 2004 victory over now bitter rival Megawati Sukarnoputri.

The popularity of Yudhoyono, who at the time was perceived as a having just an outside chance of securing the presidency, soared after he resigned from Megawati's cabinet and her husband, Taufik Kiemas, labeled the soon-to-be president a "crying boy."

This time around, the polls – described by The Australian newspaper as "largely the result of a small group of US-educated social scientists with an entrepreneurial bent seeing a gap in the market" – fall into two camps: The first predicts that Yudhoyono will win the election in the first round on July 8, while the second camp claims the election will be a close-run event and will be decided in a second round of voting in September.

It is not difficult to determine which of the surveys have been funded by which campaign teams.

In what was an embarrassing admission, Indonesia's largest polling organization, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), was recently forced to acknowledge that it had received a not insignificant Rp 500 million ($50,000) from Fox Indonesia for a poll that concluded that Yudhoyono and running mate Boediono would romp home in the first round with 70 percent of the vote. Rivals Megawati and Vice President Jusuf Kalla received 18 and 7 percent, respectively.

Dodi Ambardi, research director at LSI, admitted after releasing the survey at a packed press conference that the survey had been commissioned by Fox Indonesia, a campaign consultant working on behalf of the president's re-election campaign team.

The LSI, which had previously denied any association with political parties, was not influenced by the money, Dodi claimed.

The revelation was quickly followed by a survey from the Information Research Council (LRI), which claimed that Yudhoyono and Boediono's lead was not as large as many believed, with the favorites polling at 33 percent, marginally ahead of Kalla and running mate Wiranto on 29.3 percent and Megawati and Prabowo Subianto on 21 percent.

LRI is owned by Johan Silalahi, a political consultant linked to Kalla's campaign.

On the surface, the poll suggests that the presidential election will go to a second round, with both Yudhoyono and his discarded vice president going head-to-head in September, as Kalla the underdog closes in on his boss.

Johan denied that his association with Kalla had anything to do with the result. "If the election, under fair conditions, concludes in only one round, I will happily close my polling institute," Johan told reporters.

But the polling wars didn't end there. Last week, the Institute of Economic and Social Studies and Development (LP3ES) released a poll stating that Yudhoyono and Boediono would garner 54.9 percent of the vote, Megawati and Prabowo 9.7 percent, and Kalla and Wiranto 6.8 percent.

However, Fajar Nursahid, LP3ES's research director, conceded that the telephone survey didn't accurately reflect the nation's voters. "We only conducted the survey in 15 big cities," Fajar said. "The results cannot be claimed as the nationwide opinion on the candidates."

This poor state of affairs came to the fore when the three polling bodies admitted during a rancorous panel discussion that some of their surveys had been skewed by inaccurate sampling.

"As we admitted during the survey release, our sample validation is a bit problematic," Johan told the audience, acknowledging that the LRI's sampling didn't match the demographic data of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) on voter education levels or rural versus urban composition.

That didn't stop him from attacking the LSI, claiming that it was trying to ensure the election would be decided in one round, which would benefit the incumbent.

In response, Dodi Ambardi denied that LSI had used questions that led respondents to choose Yudhoyono, and said that LRI's research had significant problems with its methodology and sampling.

Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a senior researcher at LSI, later said that the accuracy of the LSI results was supported by other pollsters such as the Indonesian Survey Circle and Reform Institute.

Bima Arya Sugiarto, a political analyst from Paramadina University in Jakarta, highlighted another problem. "It's not only about who paid those pollsters to do the polling, but also did the pollster really conduct the polling?" he said, further undermining the credibility of the survey institutions, which are a relatively new phenomenon here but have a long history internationally.

A poll conducted in 1824 in the United States by The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian newspaper, which showed Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the US presidential race, is believed to have been the pioneer of election polling.

While the newspaper's poll remained local, in 1916 the Literary Digest established a national poll and correctly predicted Woodrow Wilson's victory in the US presidential contest.

The weekly magazine then successfully predicted the winner of the following four presidential races by mailing out millions of postcards to readers and asking them to return them with their predictions.

Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, a senior researcher at the Jakarta-based Danareksa Research Institute, said that funding was vital to polling institutions in order to finance the costs of survey operations.

According to Yudhi, surveying people over the phone is an inexpensive polling method, but is also inherently flawed because respondents who have telephones are generally wealthier than those without, therefore creating skewed results.

"A pollster might rely on its client donations to finance the operational costs, but it should still capture the reality on the ground, rather than just trying to make its client happy," Yudhi said on Wednesday when asked about the contradictory polls released by LSI and LRI.

As an illustration, Yudhi said, a monthly survey conducted by Danareksa involving 1,700 households in six provinces cost the institute more than Rp 100 million ($10,000). The Reform Institute said it had cost Rp 250 million for it to conduct a survey on the presidential election.

Yudhi said that many pollsters tended to ignore research principles and to release results in line with their clients' wishes.

Yudhi said that when undertaking a client-funded poll, a survey institution might not reveal the identity of its client to the survey respondents, because that information could influence the results.

"The good pollsters are not driven by their client's interests. That's why you can't hire just any sort of person to conduct a survey anywhere," he said, adding that a survey sample's criteria was also highly influential in determining the final results.

Sex sells for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in wooing female vote

The Australian - June 13, 2009

Stephen Fitzpatrick, Jakarta - Jakarta's sophisticated set has a joke about why Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will win the presidential election next month – and it has nothing to do with his handling of the economy or his leadership skills.

It's all about sex, and how to win the female vote.

Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, who is going head-to-head with SBY for the top job on July 8, has the catchy campaign slogan "Faster! Better!"

This attempts to underline the slow progress after five years of Dr Yudhoyono's careful hand, and to show Mr Kalla would leap out of the blocks to get things done.

But the affable and considered Dr Yudhoyono, the wits point out, will have women falling over themselves to tick his box next month with his simple directive: "More! More!"

Marital relations have been a key element of the campaigning, even if only as part of the noisy rhetoric of secondary groups such as the moderately Islamist Prosperous Justice Party.

This party declared its members were likely to favour the team of Mr Kalla and retired general Wiranto because their wives were known for wearing the Muslim jilbab headdress. Dr Yudhoyono's wife, Ani, is famous for her elegant coiffure.

And with open campaigning having begun this week, after a razzle-dazzle Electoral Commission ceremony featuring all three candidates and each of their deputies, the focus is now more on style than substance.

Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, who throughout her political career has battled accusations she is not the sharpest knife in the box, came out punching on the prime-time television current affairs program Kick Andy last night.

Asked how she could guarantee her nationalist economic policies would work, she answered: "If I weren't smart, why would Prabowo (her vice-presidential running mate, a retired general with a dubious but uninvestigated human rights record) have chosen me?"

This was up there with Ms Megawati's greatest eyebrow-raiser. Asked last year how she expected to run the country with only a high school education, she said: "The Prophet (Mohammed) was a leader, and he didn't have a university degree either."

This week's opinion polls suggest Dr Yudhoyono and his running mate, economics professor Boediono, will win the election comfortably.

The Indonesian Survey Circle predicted the incumbent would be returned with more than 63per cent of the vote, with Ms Megawati on 16.4 per cent and the hapless Kalla-Wiranto ticket getting just 5.9 per cent.

That survey was particularly bad news for Ms Megawati, as it found that one of her strongest constituencies - the poorly educated - were inclined to support Dr Yudhoyono.

Various organisations have made wildly differing election predictions, prompting allegations some were being paid to help particular tickets.

But there is little doubt the aggressive campaign of Dr Yudhoyono's team, headed by the US-educated Mallarangeng brothers – Andi, Choel and Rizal, whose Fox Indonesia has adopted a Barack Obama-style grassroots push – is working.

The reception at Jakarta's Tanah Abang textiles market this week was evidence of that, with delighted shoppers – male and female – calling out to Dr Yudhoyono: "More! More!"

Candidates pay lip service to pluralism

Jakarta Post - June 13, 2009

Adianto P. Simamora and Erwida Maulia, Jakarta – Dreaming of a beautiful pluralist Indonesia, the three pairs of candidates contesting the upcoming presidential election, say they are committed to protecting all citizens and using their authority to ensure all communities – in terms of faith, ethnicity, race and gender – live without fear of intimidation and violence.

In a televised address, presidential hopeful, Megawati Soekarnoputri stressed that as the daughter of founding president Sukarno, the main figure behind the Pancasila state ideology and the Constitution, she would remain true to the ideals her father fought for.

Megawati cited the diversity of her own family, explaining that her mother Fatmawati was from Sumatra, her grandmother was Balinese, that her husband Taufik Kiemas was from Palembang and her son-in-law was Chinese-Indonesian. "It is impossible for me to question my grandson about his race."

Despite her pledges, Megawati who was president from 2000 to October 2004, took no measures to counter terrorism, radicalism and secessionism during her tenure.

In another televised dialogue Friday, incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who never politicized religion, race or ethnicity during his tenure, said religious conflicts had increased sharply over the last four years.

"Our democracy and politics will encounter setbacks if we involve ethnic, religious and racial issues in political competitions," he said.

The current SBY and Jusuf Kalla government has come under fire for the rampant use of violence in the name of faith and the enactment of the controversial anti-pornography law during their term. Civil society groups have accused the SBY government of turning a blind eye to the violence for political reasons.

Such criticism stems from incidents such as violence against Achmadiyah followers, including the closure of their mosques and the burning of their assets in 2006 and 2008, as well as the intimidation and closure of churches in West Java and other provinces. The Wahid Institute found 265 cases of violence against religions in 2008, a significant increase from 135 cases in 2007.

A Democratic Party lawmaker and member of the Yudhoyono-Boediono campaign team, Max Sopacua, denied accusations of anti-pluralism attached to the pair, saying the party was based on the principles of pluralism and nationalism.

Max also disagreed with critics that the 2008 anti-pornography law was a threat to pluralism, claiming that critics focused on early drafts of the law, not on the law that what was eventually endorsed by the House of Representatives and signed by Yudhoyono.

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Jusuf Kalla and his running mate Wiranto have already met with large religious organizations and minority groups in an effort to win political support in the race.

The pair has pledged to promote the diversity-in-unity principle and the values of pluralism to maintain a unified Indonesian state.

"As a democratic figure, Kalla understands the value of pluralism. The pair will focus on how to enforce the law to maintain pluralism and diversity as Indonesian assets," Poempida Hidayatulloh, a member of the JK-Win campaign team said.

Asked about the controversial joint ministerial decree on the establishment of places of worship, Poempida insisted the decree would not threaten religious freedom.

[Dicky Christianto contributed to this story from Jakarta.]

Surveys show contrasting poll results

Jakarta Post - June 12, 2009

Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – Recent surveys on voters preferences for the July 8 presidential election show contrasting results on who the winner will be and whether the election will end in one or two rounds of voting.

A self-funded survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) showed presidential candidate Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is likely to win the election in one round with 63 percent of votes. The survey involved 4,000 respondents from 33 provinces.

Earlier, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) also predicted Yudhoyono would likely win in a single-round victory with 70 percent of votes.

The survey institute's polling sparked controversies from both experts and political parties. They deemed the survey as biased because the survey institute was funded by Fox Indonesia, a political consultant firm for the Democratic Party (PD), Yudhoyono's political vehicle.

The survey results are in stark contast with one conducted by the Indonesian Sociopolitical Development Strategy Research Center (PKSPSPI), which showed the presidential race was likely to end in two rounds.

According to the center's survey, SBY and his running mate Boediono, former Bank Indonesia governor, will win the first round with 37 percent of vote.

The survey's results showed former president Megawati Soekarnoputri from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and her running mate Prabowo Subianto from the Gerindra Party will get 16 percent while incumbent Vice President Jusuf Kalla from the Golkar Party and his vice presidential candidate Wiranto from the Hanura Party will secure only 6 percent.

"If there are no huge blunders from Yudhoyono or fantastic achievements from his competitors ahead of the election, the Yudhoyono-Boediono pair has the potential to win in a one-round victory," the survey circle's research director, Arman Salam, told reporters Thursday.

He said that the blunders included corruption cases or (an affair with) women, which would quickly affect support for the pair.

About 14 percent of respondents have yet to decide their choice.

The survey showed Yudhoyono and Kalla would have tight competition in South Sulawesi province – home to Kalla – with 42 percent and 40 percent of votes, respectively.

The survey circle said the survey was its second polling following a survey funded by SBY's campaign team for internal purposes. Another survey by the Information Research Institute (LRI) showed SBY would win the election, but with a far more moderate margin.

LRI's survey predicted Yudhoyono will win the first round with 33 percent of the vote followed closely by Kalla with 29 percent. Megawati will secure 20 percent, according to the survey. (hdt)

PDI-P curries favor with Gus Dur as Mega-Pro tries to gain ground

Jakarta Globe - June 12, 2009

Markus Junianto Sihaloho – Megawati Sukarnoputri's party appeared to court former President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid on Thursday for a political alliance as she ramped up her challenge against President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for the presidential seat.

Senior members of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) were out in force at a gathering of Gus Dur's supporters from the National Awakening Party (PKB), which remains divided between those who support the party's founder and Muhaimin Iskandar, whom the Constitutional Court has ruled is the legal head of the party.

Gus Dur boycotted the legislative elections and urged his supporters to follow his lead. The PIB suffered a 50 percent reduction in support according to recent polls, securing less than 5 percent of the vote but enough to win 27 seats in the House of Representatives.

Hundreds of loyal Gus Dur supporters attended the PKB's National Leadership Meeting at the Hotel Acacia in Central Jakarta on Thursday, as did Megawati's husband and negotiator, Taufik Kiemas, who chairs the PDI-P advisory board, and Suhardi, the chairman of the Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra), which is led by Megawati's running mate, Prabowo Subianto.

Kiemas, however, dismissed speculation that he was attempting to lure Gus Dur into a partnership. He contended that he attended the ceremony because he was a close friend of Gus Dur's and not for hidden political gains.

Suhardi, however, confirmed that he was inviting Gus Dur and his supporters to bolster the Megawati-Prabowo ticket, though no official deal had been struck by the two sides.

"Maybe over the next two days, there would be a decision," Suhardi said. He said he was optimistic that Gus Dur and his supporters would join the coalition. "Because Mbak Yenny [Gus Dur's daughter] had always been with Prabowo during our party's campaign tour for April's legislative elections," he said.

Gus Dur had previously announced his support for Megawati, and met with her on a number of occasions. On Thursday he said his position had not changed, that he would also boycott the presidential election, and would not support a particular candidate.

"In the legislative elections, I did not vote," Gus Dur said. "And many citizens knew my decision, and then followed me by not voting."

Taufik, who sat beside Gus Dur during the interview, smiled at the former president's comments. Asked to comment on the statement, Taufik said he respected Gus Dur's decision.

"He is a man who favors democracy and the freedom to speak," Taufik said, adding that he also attended the event as a friend and not as a political maneuver. Asked about Muhaimin's decision to support Yudhoyono, Gus Dur said he didn't agree. "It's up to them to choose," he said.

Star-studded intel war underlines election

Jakarta Post - June 11, 2009

The three presidential hopefuls have kicked off their campaigns with heavy contributions from retired top brass from the intelligence community.

The involvement of former top commanders has resulted in a clandestine war of strategies since before the legislative elections on April 9. The Jakarta Post's Rendi A. Witular takes a look at the figures moving the pawns on the chessboard of the political arena, and the campaign strategies being applied on the ground. Here are the stories.

The ancient Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu once said that victory in a battle was decided not on the battlefield, but in the preparation.

Ingrained with this teaching ever since their first years as cadets, presidential hopeful Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and rival vice presidential hopefuls Gen. (ret) Wiranto and Lt. Gen. (ret) Prabowo Subianto have called on a host of retired military top brass as their trusted advisers to put Sun Tzu's doctrine to work in securing the presidency.

As the incumbent, President Yudhoyono has the upper hand in applying his intelligence strategy long before the election, apparent in his Democratic Party's almost threefold surge in votes as it swept the April polls.

Dubbed a "silent operation" by his inner circle, Yudhoyono's strategy includes not only mapping out and identifying potential sources of votes, but also the strengths and weaknesses of his rivals, according to a Democratic Party legislator.

"It's obvious we've employed retired military generals for intelligence gathering. We've been working (on the legislative and presidential elections) since long before voting day," says Democratic Party spokesman Max Sopacua, who has been with Yudhoyono since the 2004 elections.

"We're applying Sun Tzu's philosophy; winning a war is not decided in battle, but in how it is prepared."

In 2005, Yudhoyono, who spent most of his military career in the territorial ranks, began assembling his retired military peers with intelligence background to design a strategy for a victory in 2009.

Among them, according to his election team, are Maj. Gen. (ret) Achdari, deputy chief of the Indonesian Military's (TNI) intelligence agency (Bais) in 1994; Maj. Gen. (ret) Sardan Marbun, director of the TNI's intelligence center between 1999- 2000; and Maj. Gen. (ret) Soeprapto, a former assistant personnel to the Army chief of staff between 2000 to 2001.

Besides buffing Yudhoyono's image, their job also includes recruiting high-profile figures and compiling information on potential threats from political rivals.

The Golkar Party, chaired by rival candidate Jusuf Kalla, once accused Yudhoyono's inner circle of masterminding internal rifts, through intelligence-style operations, in Golkar, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the United Development Party (PPP).

Presidential spokesman and Democratic Party executive Andi Mallarangeng has repeatedly denied the allegations.

Analysts say Yudhoyono's squad of former spooks may have met their match in the lineup picked by Prabowo, the running mate of presidential candidate Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Gen. (ret.) Hendropriyono, former head of the National Intelligence Agency (BIN) between 2001 and 2004, Maj. Gen (ret) Theo Syafei, former Udayana military commander between 1993 and 1994, and Maj. Gen. (ret) Muchdi Purwopranjono, former TNI Special Forces (Kopassus) commander in 1998, are lending their considerable talents to the Megawati-Prabowo team.

Prabowo, himself a legendary Kopassus commander between 1995 and 1998, is spearheading the campaign team by drawing up its tactics and on-the-ground execution.

"The experiences of the retired generals in the race are shaping the style of the campaign," says ProPatria Institute military analyst Hari Prihatono.

"For instance, Megawati and Prabowo tend to apply lethal, sudden attacks because of the strong Kopassus influence there." Other examples include the raising of "neoliberalism" and "pro- foreigner" allegations against the team of Yudhoyono and Boediono, the US-educated former central bank governor.

"Yudhoyono's team prefers a more drawn-out territorial strategy, in which they lay the groundwork in peace time and before any war erupts," Hari says. "The team works mostly in a defensive mode, as stability and control are their utmost priorities."

The third team in the equation, that of Kalla and his running mate Wiranto, tend to be less aggressive than the Megawati- Prabowo ticket, Hari says, perhaps because of Wiranto's character being shaped within the Army's strategic reserves, or Kostrad.

But analysts believe the military nuances in the Kalla-Wiranto ticket are less pronounced that in the two other tickets due to Kalla's astuteness in engineering political ploys.

"Kalla doesn't need military-style strategies to win the election. He is by nature a smart guy. Wiranto is on board to help deal with voters in Java," says businessman Sofjan Wanandi, part of the inner circle of Kalla's campaign team.

Political analyst Maswadi Rauf of the University of Indonesia says Kalla is catching up fast, jacking up his low popularity through the use of more concrete actions, comical speeches and punchy comments for the media to devour.

"If the other candidates don't adapt to Kalla's style, they risk losing a lot," Maswadi says. "And I guess Kalla's strategy isn't engineered by former military top brass."

Maswadi stresses the "star war" between former officers is necessary to nurture democracy, as long as active TNI officers do not join the fray.

"The good thing is these former generals are spread across several parties. It would be perilous if all of them backed just one party," he says. "They can also prevent each other from recruiting active TNI and police officers."

Despite the glistening show-within-a-show, the TNI and the police are unlikely to improve in terms of structure and welfare. "In their time, these former generals failed to make the TNI a more professional institution," Hari says.

"Whatever they're playing at now, the TNI will remain in a poor state regardless of the pledges they made to fix it."

[Additional reporting by Erwida Maulia and Alfian.]

Key players in the SBY-Boediono team

Lt. Gen. (ret) Tiopan Bernhard Silalahi. The most senior member of Yudhoyono's advisory team. Planning assistant to the Army's chief of staff (1986) and former minister for state administrative reform (1993-1998). Role: Strategic adviser.
Maj. Gen. (ret) Achdari. Deputy chief of the TNI's intelligence agency (Bais) in 1994. Role: Gathering information on rivals, identifying potential problems, mapping out political condition, drawing up action plans.
Gen. (ret) Djoko Suyanto. TNI commander (2006 and 2007). Role: Leading Echo Team to mobilize regional support through military territorial technique.
Maj. Gen. (ret) Yahya Sacawiria. Assistant deputy for social politics to the TNI chief of staff (1998). Role: Campaign team strategist and field commander, ensuring all strategies are well implemented.
Maj. Gen. (ret) Sardan Marbun. Director for TNI's intelligence center (1999-2000). Role: Strategist and propaganda chief. Also gathers information about negative cases involving rivals. Not on the official list of campaign team members registered with the KPU.
Maj. Gen. (ret) Soeprapto. Assistant to the Army chief of staff (2000 to 2001) and currently independent commissioner for publicly listed PT Indosat, the nation's second-largest telecommunications company. Role: Leading Sekoci Team to pool support from noted figures, including businessmen and religious leaders. The team has been around since 2004.
Maj. Gen. (ret) Abi Kusno. Assistant for logistics to the TNI commander (2006-2008). Role: Logistics coordinator, pooling donations and assistance from various parties. Lt. Gen. (ret) Sudi Silalahi. Cabinet secretary. Role: Strategic planning adviser. Also tasked with raising support from activists and religious leaders. Not on the official list of campaign team members.
Purnomo Yusgiantoro. Energy and mineral resources minister. Role: Adviser and donor. Not on the official list of campaign team members, denies any involvement in the campaign.

Key players in the Kalla-Wiranto team

Aksa Mahmud. Kalla's brother-in-law, chairman of the Bosowa business group. Role: Strategic planning adviser, financier and lobbyist.
Alwi Hamu. Kalla's longtime friend. Role: Strategic planning adviser and lobbyist to garner regional support.
Erwin Aksa. Kalla's nephew, son of Aksa Mahmud. Role: Financier and recruiter of potential businessmen.
Solihin Kalla. Kalla's son. Role: Financier and head of treasury division for the campaign team.
Suhaeli Kalla. Kalla's younger brother. Role: Head of logistics for the campaign team.
Sofjan Wanandi. Businessman. Role: Strategic planning adviser.
Gen. (ret) Facrul Razi. Deputy TNI commander (2000-2001) and current Hanura executive. Role: Intelligence gathering.
Lt. Gen. (ret) Sumarsono. Golkar secretary-general. Role: Party coordinator and strategic planner.
Fahmi Idris. Industry Minister. Role: Campaign team head.
Lt. Gen. (ret) Suaidy Marasabessy. East Timor war veteran and current Hanura executive. Role: Strategic planner.
Surya Paloh. Golkar advisory board head and media tycoon. Role: Public relations adviser.

Key players in the Megawati-Prabowo team

Taufiq Kiemas. Businessman and Megawati Soekarnoputri's husband. Role: Strategic planner and external lobbyist.
Hashim Djojohadikusumo. Businessman and younger brother of Prabowo Subianto. Role: Financier, strategic planner and logistics provider.
Moerdiono. Former state secretary in the Soeharto administration. Role: Strategic planner.
Maj. Gen. (ret) Theo Syafei. Udayana military commander (1993- 1994). Role: Campaign team head. Also a strategic planner and intelligence gatherer.
Gen. (ret) Hendropriyono. Former head of the National Intelligence Agency (2001-2004). Role: Strategic planner and intelligence gatherer.
Pramono Anung. PDI-P secretary-general. Role: External relations. Also a prominent lobbyist for the party.
Fadli Zon. Gerindra secretary-general. Role: External relations, public relations, image-building and lobbying.
Lt. Gen. (ret) M. Yasin. Former deputy to Yudhoyono as coordinating minister for security (2001-2004). Spearheaded Yudhoyono's 2004 presidential election campaign, where he mobilized support from retired high-ranking military brass and their supporters. Jumped ship after the April 2009 legislative elections to side with Megawati and Prabowo.
Tjahyo Kumolo. Chairman of the PDI-P at the House of Representatives. Role: Mobilize support at the provincial level and from prominent figures.
Maj. Gen. (ret) Muchdi Purwopranjono. Former TNI Special Forces (Kopassus) commander in 1998 and current Gerindra deputy chairman. Role: Prabowo confidant and adviser.

Poor cannot be blamed for taking money druing elections: Observer

Jakarta Post - June 11, 2009

Jakarta – Money politics is difficult to eradicate in Indonesia, but it is not appropriate to blame the poor for receiving money from campaigning parties, a political expert says.

"For poor people, money is far more 'real' than just jargon or sweet talk," political observer Ari Sujito of Gadjah Mada University said Thursday during a talkshow about the upcoming presidentials elections.

"So, candidates should translate their jargon into a more 'acceptable' language, especially for the poor," he added.

Money politics would likely be around for many years to come, Ari said. "As long as campaign language does not touch the grassroots, the poor will prefer money," he said.

"We should blame the politicians [for money politics], not the poor." (bbs)

Pollsters red-faced after admitting to 'some' skewed surveys

Jakarta Globe - June 9, 2009

Camelia Pasandaran – A tetchy rivalry between election pollsters turned to embarrassment on Tuesday as three leading groups acknowledged that some of their surveys had been skewed by inaccurate sampling.

The admission by representatives of the Information Research Council (LRI), Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and Institute of Economic and Social Studies and Development (LP3ES) in a panel discussion prompted calls for more scrutiny of polling groups.

The often rancorous discussion was held in response to recent revelations that one survey group was linked to Vice President Jusuf Kalla's campaign, while another was hired to do a poll for the campaign of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

"As we admitted during the survey release, our sample validation is a bit problematic," said Johan Silalahi, the director of LRI and a political consultant to Kalla's campaign. He acknowledged his group's sampling didn't match the demographic data of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) on voter education levels or rural versus urban composition.

LRI last week surveyed 2,096 people in 33 provinces, concluding that Yudhoyono's lead was not as large as believed at only 33 percent. Vice President Jusuf Kalla had 29 percent and Megawati Sukarnoputri 20 percent.

LRI's results differed dramatically to surveys conducted by the two other pollsters.

On Monday, LP3ES released a poll done by phone showing Yudhoyono at 54.9 percent, Megawati 9.7 percent and Kalla 6.8 percent. But Fajar Nursahid, LP3E's research director, admitted the survey didn't reflect the nation. "We did the survey only in 15 big cities," he said. "The results for sure cannot be claimed as nationwide opinions about the candidates.

LSI, the country's most prominent pollster, conducted a poll in late May showing Yudhoyono enjoying a huge lead with 71 percent support. Megawati had 16.4 percent and Jusuf Kalla 6 percent.

But LSI admitted last week it was paid around Rp 500 million ($50,000) to do the poll by Fox Indonesia, a consulting firm working for Yudhoyono's campaign.

LSI's critics point out that its final survey ahead of the April 9 legislative elections predicted that Yudhoyono's Democratic Party would win with 26 percent of the vote. They won 20.8 percent, outside the survey's margin of error. "Surveys can be wrong," said LSI research director Dodi Ambardi.

The end justifies the means in presidential campaign strategy

Jakarta Post - June 11, 2009

The "jockeys" in the three-horse race for the Presidential Palace are exploring different strategies to reach the finish, ranging from military-style campaigns to luring sympathy from key ethnic groups.

At the private residence of incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in Cikeas, West Java, a group of his inner circle has gathered to set up campaign "modules" that vary for each region, and for issues that need to be addressed immediately during public appearances.

Regional campaign coordinators, and expert teams like the Fox Indonesia consultancy, then execute the details in the blueprints.

"The modules are set up by a special team for execution. We even have modules to counter the neoliberalism issue," says Max Sopacua from Yudhoyono's campaign team.

"Fox Indonesia, which is our on-the-ground consultant, is dealing with image-making and fixing, including countering these claims of neoliberalism, arranging advertising and organizing events."

The term neoliberalism is being bandied about by rival candidates to denigrate Yudhoyono's running mate Boediono, accusing him of championing the extreme economic system of free international trade and foreign investment flows.

Campaign material for Yudhoyono's team is deployed in a one-way traffic coordinated by Maj. Gen. (ret) Abi Kusno, who pooled donations from various parties, says Max.

Yudhoyono also has nine different campaign teams, resembling a military operation, outside those formed by his Democratic Party. Some have been around since 2004, and source their own funding.

The teams include Echo (mobilizing regional support), Gerakan Pro SBY (pooling ministers, former generals and other noted figures), Sekoci (grouping businessmen, company executives, women's activists and religious leaders), Delta (dealing mostly with logistics), Romeo (managing propaganda), Foxtrot (developing public relations and image), Barindo (mobilizing support from public organizations), Jaringan Nusantara (managing activists) and Yayasan Dzikir SBY Nurussalam (dealing with religious activities).

Yudhoyono's rival, Jusuf Kalla, meanwhile, has opted for a simpler structure that focuses more on raising support from Javanese voters.

Kalla, a native of South Sulawesi, is on weaker footing in Java than the other candidates, because of the strong support the Javanese traditionally give their own leaders.

The Javanese account for the majority of the country's population, centered primarily in Central Java, Yogyakarta and East Java. Java Island is home to 55 percent of Indonesia's 230 million people.

Kalla's team has tasked Wiranto, a native Javanese, and Yogyakarta Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, considered the patron of Javanese culture, with raising votes.

"We have also sought help from Hasyim Muzadi (chairman of Nadhlatul Ulama, or NU, the country's largest Muslim organization) and Kofifah Indar Parawansa (a key NU figure) as our vote-getters in East Java," says businessman Sofjan Wanandi, one of Kalla's key advisers.

As for campaign material, Kalla is backed primarily by his family's business group and Golkar.

The third candidate, Megawati Soekarnoputri, whose campaign material needs rely heavily on businessman Hashim Djojohadikusumo, has thus far focused her campaigning in and around West Java.

However, her overall strategy remains unclear due to her late "forced marriage" with running mate Prabowo Subianto.

"I haven't seen much from Megawati's team. I think it's because they were late starters, and are still figuring out their strategy," says University of Indonesia political analyst Maswadi Rauf.

Despite lagging behind their rivals, the team has aggressively attacked Yudhoyono's perceived lack of nationalism and concern for the poor. Yudhoyono's team recently hit back by likening Prabowo's "commando-style" economic policy to that of a fascist regime.

"We're not focusing on polishing our image, because the public will see it otherwise," says Ganjar Pranowo from Megawati's campaign team. "We're instead focusing on efforts to meet public aspirations."

Despite all the hype, the recent debates and mockeries have seen Yudhoyono become cannon fodder for the other candidates.

"If you watch TV and read the newspapers, you'll see a similar pattern in all the campaign efforts: Making Yudhoyono and Boediono the common target," Maswadi says. "And thus far, they have yet to fully strike back."

[Additional reporting by Dicky Christanto and Erwida Maulia.]

Farmers herded onto Yudhoyono bandwagon

Jakarta Post - June 10, 2009

Jakarta – Hundreds of farmers, mostly from West Java and Banten, gathered recently at Ragunan Sport Center to support Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

A huge banner in front of the building read: "Welcome, members of the Indonesia Farmers' Council (DTI)". At the meeting, council chairman Ferry J. Juliantono announced that DTI officially supported Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

"I think the agriculture programs of the current government are the best," Ferry told reporters after the gathering.

Yudhoyono's running mate, Boediono, was scheduled to attend the gathering to deliver his opening speech, but an announcement was made that he had to accompany his mate on a television talk show, instead.

Just as forum was concluding, a man looking bewildered, wearing a ragged shirt and caping (conical-shaped woven hat), was among guests leaving the hall.

The man, Sakerah, a 50-year-old rice farmer from Tangerang, had come to Jakarta with his wife and daughter. "They said we would get some money after this meeting. Where is the committee?" Sakerah grumbled in Sundanese (the traditional language spoken in Banten and West Java).

Sakerah was reluctant to answer when asked if he came only for the money. "They asked us to join hundreds of fellow farmers from other parts of the country, in Jakarta, for a meeting, but I didn't know what it would be about exactly," he said.

"They just sent a car to my hometown to bring me and dozens of others here," Sakerah told The Jakarta Post.

Apparently he knew little about the farmers' council. "I'd heard about DTI a couple of times before, but I don't know what it is about."

Apparently, not all of those in attendance were farmers. Susi, a vendor, said she was asked by her friend to attend because rumor had it that money would be given out at the meeting. "No payments yet. I don't know. Maybe later. I will come back here tomorrow," Susi said.

Both Sakerah and Susi acknowledged that politics was not a big deal for them. "I don't really know about the candidates. But if they give me money now, I could vote for SBY in the election," Susi said.

However, Jaja, a farmer from Bandung said that while he was a low-income earner, he didn't want to be forced to vote for a particular candidate. "They can't buy me. The election is about conscience, not money."

Ferry's council has been gearing up to side with Yudhoyono, and is suspected to be preparing to "battle" against Prabowo Subianto's Indonesian Farmers and Fishermen Association's (HKTI), to gain support from farmers.

The chairman was previously a government protester, but is now under city arrest pending the result of his appeal at the Jakarta High Court.

Ferry was arrested for his alleged role in violent demonstrations against the government decision to increase fuel prices, in March 2008. Following the arrest he was sentenced by the Central Jakarta District Court to one year in prison. (bbs)

Kalla, Megawati's resolve is in line with our position - Papernas

Lampung Post - June 9, 2009

Bandar Lampung – The Lampung province I regional leadership board (DPD) of the National Liberation Party of Unity (Papernas) is calling on its members to block presidential and vice presidential candidates that are pro-neoliberalism. They are also inviting the people to build a national coalition government for national self-sufficiency.

This was conveyed by Papernas Lampung DPD chairperson Rakhmat Husein D.C. in a press release in the provincial capital of Bandar Lampung, South Sumatra, on Saturday June 8.

According to Husein, the three presidential and vice presidential candidates for the 2009 presidential elections have now been finalised, namely Megawati Sukarnoputri-Prabowo Subianto (Mega- Pro), Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-Boediono (SBY-Boediono) and Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto (JK-Win).

In the midst of the uproar surrounding these presidential elections, the discourse on the issue of neoliberalism has also grown stronger. "It can be said, that the three presidential tickets who are fighting it out in the presidential elections reject being linked with neoliberalism or being accused of being neoliberal adherents", said Husein.

Despite this, he said, it is clear that two of the presidential tickets, namely Megawati-Prabowo and Kalla-Wiranto tickets have taken up the themes of "a people's economy and national self- sufficiency".

This situation indicates how neoliberalism as an ideology and economic system is seen as a threat to national economic advancement and the Indonesian people. "This is a form of anti- neoliberalism against the incumbent presidential candidate SBY who is pursuing neoliberal practices", he said.

Thus Papernas will not be abandoning [the opportunity presented by] the momentum of the presidential elections. Because, the political [battle] field of the 2009 presidential elections is clearly an arena for the people to fight neoliberal practices. "Because we believe that the SBY-Boediono ticket are adherents of the neoliberal road, we will be calling for unity to defeat this 'neoliberal' duet", said Husein.

Papernas, he said, is also calling on all Indonesian people and the country's patriots to defeat neoliberalism. For workers, farmers, the urban poor, intellectuals, artistic and cultural workers, and even families of military officers and domestic businesspeople to unite and form a "national coalition government for national self-sufficiency".

"There are two presidential tickets that represent an alternative choice, the two tickets are JK-Win and Mega-Pro who have explicitly sated that they will build national self-sufficiency and a people's economy", he said.

According to Husein, there are three positions that continue to be held by Papernas in determining their political outlook. The three are referred to as the "National United Tripanji (Three Banners)", namely repudiating the foreign debt, the nationalisation of foreign mining industries and building the national industry (factories). "The resolve of two of the presidential and vice presidential candidates (Jusuf Kalla- Wiranto and Megawati-Prabowo - Ed.) is in line with our position." (n AAN/U-2)

[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of this report was "Papernas: Block the pro-neoliberal candidates".]

Indonesia poll finds landslide less likely

Sydney Morning Herald - June 9, 2009

Tom Allard Herald, Jakarta – The re-election of the Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, may not be the cakewalk many are expecting. A new poll suggests he may be forced to face a second election to secure power.

The presidential campaign began formally last week and Dr Yudhoyono appears to have come off second best in early skirmishes.

Opinion survey results published at the weekend by the Information Research Institute show he retains a relatively slim lead over the Vice-President, Jusuf Kalla, and the former president, Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Dr Yudhoyono drew 33 per cent support, Mr Kalla 29 per cent and Ms Soekarnoputri 20 per cent. An earlier survey, by the Indonesia Survey Institute found Dr Yudhoyono and his running mate, the former central bank chief Boediono, had the backing of 70 per cent of Indonesians.

While both surveys must be viewed with caution, political analysts agreed it had been a ponderous beginning to campaigning for the incumbent.

"JK [Jusuf Kalla] is getting the best media coverage," said Sri Budi Eko Wardani, from the University of Indonesia. "He has been much more active."

But the Indonesian leader has expressed confidence in being re- elected in the first round of voting on July 8 by garnering more than 50 per cent of votes.

A second poll – a showdown between the two best-performing candidates – will be held in September if there is no clear winner next month.

Dr Yudhoyono has been distracted by claims that his re-election team has a "neo-liberal" agenda and by a controversy about anti- Arab comments made by a senior adviser. His campaign has also been reported to police by the country's election supervisory board for alleged breaches of campaign rules.

Mr Kalla, a businessman from South Sulawesi, is running under a campaign slogan of "Faster, Better", a thinly veiled reference to Dr Yudhoyono's slow decision-making.

Ms Soekarnoputri is promoting a populist agenda, frequently accusing the incumbent of favouring foreigners at the expense of the rural and urban poor.

'Prabowo-nomics' adds some spice to Mega's lackluster campaign

Jakarta Globe - June 9, 2009

Heru Andriyanto & Markus Junianto Sihaloho – He's rich, he's controversial, and he's unabashedly trying to amass power. And that, plus many other things, is why the arrival of businessman Prabowo Subianto as No. 2 on Megawati Sukarnoputri's election ticket has improved the profile of the former president, who had relied heavily on her political party and the Sukarno family name.

Far from the empty, boring campaign promises of nationalism and tempo dulu, or golden era politics, the pair is outlining ambitious targets if they win the July 8 presidential poll, including "pro-people" policies that aim to double the nation's per capita income to Rp 40 million ($4,000), plans for fertilizer factories with a combined output of 4 million tons annually, 10,000 extra megawatts of electrical output and other ideas that people have never heard from Megawati before.

Prabowo, a former Army general and son of Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, a leading architect of Indonesia's economic policy during the post-independence era, has brought with him flashy ideas to energize Megawati's campaign, which was little more than a vague story about Ibu Mega and "The Little People."

The economic agenda of Megawati and her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was a snoozer, mainly centered on cheaper sembako (the Indonesian acronym for nine basic commodities), with no detailed programs. These days, Megawati and her running mate hang out with farmers, fishermen and day laborers.

On a broader scale, Prabowo's self-assured demeanor and sometimes controversial statements counterbalance Megawati's lack of oratorical prowess, and attract a wider range of supporters to their ongoing campaign.

"I'm not against the free market, but our economic system is just too liberal," Prabowo said ahead of the April 9 legislative elections, in which his Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) finished eighth. "The system must be changed."

Since teaming up with Megawati, many of his ideas, widely known as "Prabowo-nomics," have appeared in the "Eight Program Actions for People's Welfare," a campaign manifesto that was recently promoted in major newspapers. The Mega-Pro ticket seeks to reschedule Indonesia's foreign debt so as to pump more money into education, health care, food production and affordable energy programs.

If they win, they promise economic growth will reach double digits by 2014, with intensified development in agriculture, energy, industry and trade.

"We have all the resources to achieve that: land, capital, technology and, in Indonesia's case I must add, a [friendly] climate," said Widya Purnama, an economic advisor to the campaign.

However, in a televised appearance last month before the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Megawati backpedaled from the double-digit growth target, calling it a "possible" target.

By contrast, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is seeking re-election, is aiming for more moderate growth of 7 percent a year to 2014.

"I like their 'pro-people' economic program but I'm worried that what they are doing is just telling people tall tales by setting those targets," said Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, chief economist at Danareksa Research Institute in Jakarta.

"They aim to accelerate growth to double digits, but at the same time their economic policy is centered within the agricultural sector. That's not a good combination," he said. "If they're eager to speed up growth, they must start thinking about high-tech manufacturing."

In the areas of food and energy, Megawati has vowed to open 2 million hectares of grain fields to boost food production, and add an additional 4 million hectares of palm plantations to support the bioethanol industry, with the aim of producing 56 million metric tons of the fuel a year.

The Mega-Pro ticket has also vowed to oblige exporters who enjoy state funding to keep foreign exchange revenues in local banks, and ban the use of government loans to build luxury houses, apartments and shopping malls, according to the campaign manifesto.

"This is the kind of breakthrough our leaders should have made a long time ago," economist Farial Anwar said. "We must not let foreign exchange revenues generated from the export of our own resources go to other countries' banks, as this country is in dire need of the dollar."

In the lead-up to the legislative elections, Prabowo and Gerinda ran a slick, top-down campaign with television advertising and sophisticated strategies to target voters, such as using focus groups. Expect that to continue and even expand with the parties' joint campaign team.

"Our strategy will translate into what we call the 'air campaign' and 'ground campaign,'?" said Hasto Kristianto, secretary of the campaign team.

The air campaign refers to reaching voters through advertising and media coverage, while the ground campaign, will see Megawati, Prabowo and selected party members meeting face to face with voters.

The air campaign team is comprised of groups for media coverage, presidential debates and advertising, led by Megawati's daughter Puan Maharani, considered a future PDI-P leader. The ground campaign team, which among other things handles events and logistics, has the look of a military alumni roll call with Maj. Gen. (ret.) Adang Ruchiatna and Lt. Gen. (ret.) Muhammad Yasin, who was a key member of Yudhoyono's 2004 campaign team.

Campaign volunteers have been dispatched to win over Muslim students at Islamic boarding schools, and a volunteer group named the Red and White People's Economy Movement claims to have secured 3 million votes from market vendors and traders.

Hasto said the volunteer teams target specific voter groups, such as farmers and women.

"Other candidates may also have such volunteer groups, but our groups differ from them by focusing on the people's economy, which we believe will attract more voters," he said.

And given the emergence of negative campaigning this election season, Mega-Pro even has a counter-intelligence operation, according to a document obtained by the Jakarta Globe, to counter any dirty tricks by their rival tickets.

"We are taking anticipatory measures with a strong message: don't use undemocratic means or you will have to deal with the team," the document said.

Presidential race to take two rounds: Analysts

Jakarta Post - June 8, 2009

Surabaya – Despite recent surveys showing 70 percent support for incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, it is unlikely the upcoming presidential election will be decided in a single round as all three candidates have conservative supporters at the grassroots level, some political analysts say.

Airlangga University professor Muhammad Asfar, said the pattern of political support for the three candidates was, on average, even, and will remain dynamic until election day as any event could be politicised and incorporated into campaigning.

"After the legislative election, the incumbent president's popularity reached 70 percent but two weeks later, his popularity went down to 60 percent and therefore, it is unlikely he will win the majority of votes or 50 percent plus one, in one round," he said.

Aribowo, another Airlangga political analyst, concurred, saying the election would only take one round if political support for the Democratic Party (PD) remains as high as it was in the legislative election. "In East Java, for instance, 60 percent of Nahdlatul Ulama supporters voted for the PD in the legislative election but this will not necessarily be true of the presidential election."

New survey says to expect two-round election

Jakarta Post - June 8, 2009

Jakarta – In contrast to a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) less than a week ago, the results of a survey published by the Information Research Institute (LRI) has found the July presidential election will end in two rounds.

"I am sure the election will end in two rounds. If I am wrong, then I am ready to close down my institution," LRI Director Johan Silalahi told a press conference in Menteng, Central Jakarta, on Sunday.

Johan said that although it was clear he had a political allegiance with Kalla, his survey was funded by various businesses, and not by Kalla himself.

Johan is also the chairman of the Johans Foundation, a strategic consultative company currently employed by Kalla. "On the other hand, if I'm right, then the other institution must be willing to disband itself for its credibility's sake," Johan added.

The survey conducted by LSI has sparked controversy in the last couple of days. The results of LSI's survey suggest the election would end in a single round with the victory of incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) of the Democratic Party (PD).

According to the LSI survey, SBY will win the election by a whopping 70 percent of votes. Indonesian law stipulates that an election is decided when a candidate secures more than 50 percent of votes.

However, the credibility of the LSI survey has been questioned as it was commissioned by Fox Indonesia, a political consultant firm employed by SBY's team.

Despite the fact it still puts SBY as the front runner, the LRI survey, on the other hand, shows a considerably more moderated margin of difference between the candidates.

According to the LRI survey, SBY will win the election by around 33 percent of the vote, Jusef Kallah of the Golkar Party would follow in second place with around 29 percent, while Megawati Sukarnoputri of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) will come in last with around 20 percent.

"Based on my field research, there has been a massive migration of voters, especially Islamic-based and grassroots voters. The migration is the fault of no one other than SBY's presidential election team. First, one of the team members ignited the jilbab issue and then another member added fuel to the fire by throwing a racist comment against people of a certain ethnicity," Johan said.

Zulkieflimansyah, deputy secretary-general of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), one of the PD's coalition partners, said a few weeks ago that his party's grassroots voters might switch and cast their votes for Kalla due to the fact that his wife regularly wears a jilbab (Muslim head dress).

Ruhut Sitompul, one of the PD's central board chairmen, was caught on camera saying, "Arabs have never done anything for Indonesia."

However, a political analyst from Charta Politika Indonesia, Bima Arya Sugiarto, said the LRI survey has a few weaknesses.

"Elementary school is the highest level of education for only 31 percent of the total respondents, while according to the BPS (Central Statistic Agency), this is the highest level of education for around 61 percent of voters."

The Presidential election is scheduled for July 8. (hdt)

Megawati woos workers, SBY rides bike

Jakarta Post - June 8, 2009

Irawaty Wardany, Jakarta – Presidential hopeful Megawati Soekarnoputri signed Saturday a political contract with labor unions in Kerawang, West Java, vowing to phase out outsourcing, while President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono attended Sunday in Jakarta the celebration of World Environment Day, riding a bicycle with the First Lady Ani Yudhoyono to the event.

Meanwhile, Vice President Jusuf Kalla, invited journalists to watch a new movie entitled 'Capres' (Calo president or presidential broker) at a mall in Jakarta, together with 150 members of his campaign team.

Megawati told the alliance of unions, which includes the Confederation of All-Indonesian Workers Union (KSPSI), that she would revise the 2003 Labor Law, and phase out outsourcing if she won the upcoming presidential election.

The political contract was signed during the commemoration of founding president Sukarno's 108th birthday in Rengasdengklok, Karawang, West Java on Saturday.

Megawati and the labor unions also agreed to make May Day a national holiday, despite previous opposition.

During the ceremony, workers said outsourcing had created job insecurity in the past six years.

"We are facing difficulties to get jobs, we have to pay to get jobs and our wages are frequently slashed for unspecified reasons.... We hope the Megawati-Prabowo pair will phase out outsourcing to give workers certainty," Kompas.com quoted a unionist as saying.

President Megawati had previously introduced the 2003 Labor Law which allowed companies to outsource tasks such as cleaning services, security and transportation to other companies for efficiency.

But many employers outsourced not only their ancillary tasks but also part of their core business activities to other companies to minimize labor costs.

Thousands of workers have been dismissed without any severance pay in the past six months following the global economic downturn whose negative impacts had maximum effect since January 2009.

On Sunday, Yudhoyono, First Lady Ani Yudhoyono, their second son Edhie Baskoro and several ministers rode bicycles to attend World Environment Day at the National Monument.

"I've been riding a bicycle since 2005 so this is not because of the election," the President said. He also encouraged reducing the use of vehicles to decrease emissions.

Later on Sunday, Vice President Jusuf Kalla told journalists he was open to criticism after watching a movie together with them. Kalla said he expected the public and media to continue criticizing the government so that it would not become authoritarian.

"There is no such thing as a bad criticism. Criticism is part of human rights, but should be limited so as not to violate other people's rights," he said.

Smear campaign intensifying among presidential aspirants

Jakarta Post - June 8, 2009

Jakarta – Negative, personalized campaigns are intensifying among presidential and vice presidential candidates, which according to a political analyst violated the political code of ethics.

Maswadi Rauf, a political expert from the University of Indonesia, said that to uphold the political code of ethics, the presidential candidates should launch attacks on their rivals by criticizing their programs instead of their personalities.

Kicking off his campaign trail Thursday, incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono criticized aspirants with business backgrounds, which he said would result in a corrupted government if they won the presidential election.

He was apparently referring to his rival Jusuf Kalla and presidential hopeful Megawati Soekarnoputri's running mate Prabowo Subianto, who reportedly has a personal fortune worth Rp 1.7 trillion.

He also blamed his government's low performance in the past 4.5 years on the country's poor condition that was inherited from his predecessor, seemingly referring to Megawati, who presided over the nation from 2000 until 2004

Responding to SBY's statement, Megawati and Pramono Anung, the Indonesian's Democratic Party of Struggle's (PDI-P) secretary general, called on the incumbent President to identify who he meant by "predecessor".

Reacting to SBY's criticism, Jusuf Kalla said during his campaign trail in Central Sulawesi on Friday that a dubious leader could not achieve significant advances for the nation and therefore, the country was in need of a strong leader who could act quickly in handling all issues.

A campaign team member for Jusuf Kalla and Wiranto, Sofjan Wanandi, challenged SBY, saying the most corrupt government officials had military backgrounds, rather than business ones.

"As businessmen, we have our code of ethics. But if you look at Indonesian history, it is officials with military backgrounds who have misused power for their personal and familial interests," he told Kompas.com on Saturday.

Armed forces/defense

Signs of change, but Indonesian military still holds sway

Radio Australia - June 9, 2009

Reporter: Peter Cave

Peter Cave: Indonesia's leading human rights advocate says Indonesia's military remains above the law but he remains optimistic that change is underway in his country.

Lawyer Usman Hamid heads Kontras, the Commission for Disappearances and Victims of Violence in Indonesia.

He says he takes heart from the fact that police felt confident enough to at least charge a former senior general and head of Intelligence with the murder of his predecessor as head of Kontras.

But he says it's worrying that former general Prabowo Subianto, accused of gross abuses of human rights in East Timor, is currently campaigning to become vice-president.

Usman Hamid is in Australia to address a conference on reform of the security sector in Indonesia. I asked him why he believed the military remained above the law.

Usman Hamid: Ten years after the fall of Suharto, military business, military violation, remains unaccountable. There are many human rights abuses in the past during Suharto's era which has not been brought to justice.

Particularly crimes against humanity in East Timor in 1999 and not a single person for those responsible for the crimes have been brought to justice.

Peter Cave: Do you think it will ever happen?

Usman Hamid: I think it should happen. I mean, the recent result of Indonesian election has bring a new composition in the Parliament where it can bring a new hope for bringing past human right abuses to a tribunal through the approval of Parliament.

Peter Cave: You've talked about bringing the people who committed human rights abuses in the past to justice. What about the current situation?

Usman Hamid: I think the current situation has shown more space of freedom but has some limits, especially with relations to religious freedoms but also on the other hand, there are some violence that remains continuous.

On one hand in Aceh, a peace process has bring a new hope for peace, for security in Aceh, but on the other hand, violence remains continued in Papua, or in the case of the murder of human right defenders six years after the fall of Suharto, in this case Munir Said Thalib, has shown a very serious threats against democratisation in Indonesia and I think this is a challenge for Indonesian chief of society to work democratisations.

Peter Cave: Munir of course was your predecessor. Does it give you some hope that at last a senior member of the security forces looks like he may be brought to book for this murder?

Usman Hamid: I think last year did arrest and detention of former commander of Indonesia Special Forces Major General Muchdi PR is a very significant step taken by the police, by the Indonesian authorities in relation to the involvement of senior level of military generals, but the recent decision of the court acquitted the general have shown that impunity is still very strong. It has never been happened.

In the case of East Timor where international community has been paying so much attention, there was no single former military general or police who has been detained for crimes against humanity in East Timor so in this case I think it is the first time ever that international police detained former military general in relations to the murder of human rights activists.

Peter Cave: And that makes you optimistic?

Usman Hamid: I think it gives a new hope. It gives a window of opportunity for change in Indonesia.

Peter Cave: That was lawyer Usman Hamid, who heads Kontras – the Commission for Disappearances and Victims of Violence in Indonesia.

Economy & investment

Moody's upgrades Indonesia's economic outlook

Jakarta Globe - June 12, 2009

Muhamad Al Azhari, Ardian Wibisono & Dion Bisara – Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has upgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating outlook to positive from stable, citing the country's strong economic potential and effective fiscal policy.

"The improvement in the outlook was prompted by Indonesia's relatively strong growth prospects and an increasingly effective macroeconomic policy framework," said Aninda Mitra, a Moody's vice president and sovereign analyst for Indonesia.

The country's "strong domestic demand and a balanced economy with an investment momentum that was less susceptible to external trade or financial shocks" has given it a relatively good growth outlook, she said

"A pick-up in economic activity to its recent [growth] rate of 5.5 percent is expected in 2010," Mitra said, adding that "Indonesia's overall growth dynamic is steadier and better positioned than many Ba-rated peers, as well as most other regional economies."

Indonesia's debt-market assets are rated at speculative grade by Moody's with a Ba3 rating. Obligations rated Ba are considered to be of questionable credit quality. The country needs three more rating upgrades before reaching investment grade, and the change in outlook from stable to positive may improve the chances of this happening.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati welcomed the upgrade, saying "it shows our economy has lower potential risks [of default] compared with others that they have appraised – the benchmark countries that are included in our group."

Sri Mulyani added that "a positive [outlook] means there is a greater possibility of a ratings upgrade."

According to Moody's, "the time horizon for rating outlooks is generally 12 months to 18 months, although developments could prompt earlier rating action."

Q2, Q3 economy to see more consumption and investment

Jakarta Post - June 9, 2009

Aditya Suharmoko, Jakarta – Indonesia's economy in the next six months will be supported by strong consumption and more investment, acting Coordinating Minister for the Economy Sri Mulyani Indrawati says.

"Investment is forecast to recover in the second and third quarters, along with increasing confidence as seen from the (recent) rise in market capitalization," Mulyani said Monday.

She also said banks might start channeling more loans due to the recent cuts in the central bank's benchmark interest rate.

The Bank Indonesia (BI) rate now stands at 7 percent and may prompt banks to start lending instead of putting money in BI certificates and government bonds.

Also, the government has started to invest in agreed infrastructure projects, as part of its economic stimulus package.

"Government investment in the form of capital spending is mate- rializing in the second and third quarters, in [the form of] stimulus or other forms of spending," she said.

BI deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter and beyond would be supported by stronger export demand, including from Japan, India, China and South Korea.

With private consumption still going strong, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, ahead of the presidential election in July and the fasting month in August, the economy is forecast to expand "at close to 4 percent", said Mulyani.

So far, Indonesia has cushioned itself relatively well from the impacts of the global economic downturn.

The country still managed to score positive growth, just below that of China and India, while other countries plunged into recession.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week revised its 2009 growth forecast for Indonesia from 2.5 percent to between 3 percent and 4 percent.

The government expects the economy to expand between 4 percent and 4.5 percent this year, while BI forecasts a growth of between 3 percent and 4 percent.

"IMF made a wrong forecast on our economy. They overestimated the impacts of the global downturn on Indonesia," said Mulyani.

Destry Damayanti, the chief economist of Mandiri Sekuritas, had a different opinion, saying investors who wanted to make direct investment may take a wait-and-see position before the president is elected.

"They wait for certainty as the leader will determine the economic policies. Investment may [therefore]start to strengthen in the end of third quarter," she said.

But portfolio investment will strengthen as indicated by the recent capital inflows, she said. Indonesia has become an attractive destination for short-term investors due to high yields and the perception of improved risk.

Destry added that exports would strengthen as demand strengthened and commodity prices increased.

"There is an increase in export demand from Asian countries, like China. The rise in commodity prices also helps, commodities a count for about 40 percent of our exports."

Indonesia's infrastructure still lagging: Survey

Jakarta Post - June 9, 2009

Infrastructure in Indonesia remains a crucial problem hampering growth, the government admitted recently in response to an assessment conducted by the Swiss-based International Institute for Management Development (IMD).

"Infrastructure is still [the government's] imperative, although overall it has improved," said Bambang Susantono, the deputy to the coordinating minister for the economy, in charge of infrastructure, on Monday.

Infrastructure development was on the government's medium and long-term agendas and significant improvements in this sector would materialize next year with the completion of new transportation systems, roads and electricity services, Bambang said.

In its World Competitiveness Yearbook 2009, IMD says Indonesia needs to improve its infrastructure, despite its "most spectacular" performance, rising from 51st place to 42nd, overall.

In terms of infrastructure, Indonesia had dropped from 51st place in 2008 to 53rd in 2009, but in the government efficiency ranking it rose from 38th in 2008 to 31st in 2009; and in business efficiency it rose from 44th to 38th.

By comparison, Singapore ranked 3rd overall, Malaysia 18th, Thailand 26th and the Philippines 43rd. Emerging economies were also ranked; Brazil was 40th, Russia 49th, India 30th and China 20th.

The US still ranked first, but Hong Kong was swiftly "closing the gap" with the US, gaining second position, the yearbook says.

IMD had surveyed 57 countries worldwide using achievements of each country last year as the basis for its research. These achievements were divided into 329 criteria.

"Indonesia stands out because the economy still has positive growth, which is attractive from an economic perspective because of its strong base," Coordinating Minister for the Economy Sri Mulyani Indrawati said.

Indonesia's economy had grown 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 from a year earlier, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Its Q1 growth was just below that of China and India, while other economies suffered serious downturns because of the global financial crisis.

The government expects the economy to expand between 4 and 4.5 percent this year. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth forecast for Indonesia from 2.5 percent to between 3 and 4 percent.

"We warmly welcome the survey because it is in line with the government's aim to improve investment to boost the economy," Mulyani said. IMD also conducted a stress test on competitiveness, an analysis of how well equipped countries are to weather the global financial crisis and improve their competitiveness in the near future.

Denmark ranked first in the test because of its resilient business and government sectors. Other smaller countries in Northern Europe and Southeast Asia, with populations of less than 30 million, will also fare well, IMD says.

Indonesia ranks 33rd in the stress test, which assessed economic forecasts, government policies, business performances and societal conditions.

Singapore ranked second in the stress test, Malaysia 10th, Thailand 19th and the Philippines 32nd. Emerging economies Brazil ranked 22nd, Russia 51st, India 13th and China 18th.

Meanwhile, developed economies the US ranked 28th, the UK 34th and France 44th, as they are hit hardest by the global crisis. IMD's World Competitiveness Yearbook 2009 can be accessed at www.imd.ch/wcy09.

Retailers threaten traditional markets

Jakarta Post - June 9, 2009

Nana Rukmana and Fadli, Cirebon, Batam – The Cirebon City Council is demanding the city administration stop issuing development permits for modern retailers, as their mushrooming presence puts the viability of traditional markets at stake.

Chairman of the council's public welfare commission Tjipto said Friday with the administration issuing permits to modern retailers so readily, rampant development of supermarkets and mini-markets had forced many traditional markets into bankruptcy.

"The administration isn't serious about defending traditional traders and markets. They are being evicted by the rampant development of supermarkets and mini-markets, which have much stronger capital," he said.

As many as 10 traditional markets are now being forced to compete with six modern retailers and numerous mini-markets throughout Cirebon.

The city's traditional markets include Kanoman market, Jagasatru market, Kramat market, Kalitanjung market, Pagi market, Perumnas market, Drajat market, Pronggol market, Kalijaga market and Gunung Sari market. An estimated 5,000 vendors earn a living from the 10 traditional markets.

"But most of the vendors have started to go bankrupt. Stalls in traditional markets are becoming vacant, abandoned by bankrupt vendors," Tjipto said. "The administration should control this unhealthy economic situation."

Hamdani, a vendor at Kanoman market, said many of his colleagues object to the presence of nearby supermarkets. "Uncontrolled development of supermarkets can kill the businesses of small traders like us," he said.

He said there was a supermarket less than 500 meters from where he traded. "This obviously puts small traders at a disadvantage."

Asep, 40, a vegetable vendor at Jagasatru market likewise said he "cannot hold out any longer" in competing with supermarkets. He said his friends who once ran neighboring stalls have already gone bankrupt.

The Batam city administration is meanwhile considering putting a halt to the issuance of permits for new malls and modern shopping centers, saying it would help protect the traditional markets and local business climate. "Malls and modern shopping centers are not supposed to kill traditional markets," Batam Mayor Ahmad Dahlan told The Jakarta Post.

He added that a bylaw on market management to accommodate the plan was being deliberated at the city council and was expected to be approved this year. "Through the bylaw we will limit the development of malls according to the local condition," he said.

The two existing hyper marts in Batam, he went on, were more than sufficient to serve the city population of some 700,000. Quoting a statement made by the trade minister, he said that a hyper mart could serve a city with a population of up to 500,000.

Data from the city administration shows there are 16 malls or shopping centers currently operating in Batam. They exclude at least three others under construction and two others forced to close amid the stiff competition.

Analysis & opinion

Shouldn't we be digging dirt on the presidential and VP hopefuls?

Jakarta Post - June 13, 2009

Endy M. Bayuni, Jakarta – Remember voting for your class leader in school? Did you vote for him because of what he promised to do or more because of what he had done for you? Presumably, it was a combination of the two. Track record was as important as vision in class elections.

This should be the case too with the presidential election next month. Observing the way the campaign has been conducted, however, we seem to be putting most, if not all, of the emphasis on candidates' visions. Rarely do we hear them talking about their track records. When we do, they are only mentioned in passing.

While it is understandable that the candidates want to put their message across to voters about what they intend to do once they are elected into office, there is no reason why the KPU and the media should be complicit in this salesmanship game.

The goal of the KPU and the independent media instead should be to ensure that the winners of the July 8 election are the result of informed choices. Voters should have full knowledge, as far as possible, of all six candidates, from their vision and mission, their platform and program, and yes, down to their track records.

The last thing Indonesia needs is to elect a pair of leaders on the basis of our partial knowledge about the candidates, only to be surprised or shocked later on by revelations of their past misconducts or flaws in their characters.

The five public debates organized by the KPU – three for the presidential candidates and two for their running mates beginning June 18 – unfortunately are designed by law to give candidates the chance to convey and elaborate on their vision and mission statements and nothing else.

Since these statements have already been widely disseminated to the public, the only real takeaway from these debates will be in learning about the communication skills of candidates.

Vision and communication skills are important qualities in selecting a leader, but these issues are taking us only a little further than a beauty pageant would. We as a nation have been lenient in letting politicians get away with saying one thing but doing completely the opposite. Some candidates are already making wild promises in their campaigns, essentially talking the talk. If we only bothered to check on their past conduct, we would learn that they have not necessarily walked the walk.

The public debates organized by the KPU on TV stations provide the best chance for the public to scrutinize candidates' track records and make them accountable for their past deeds, both good and bad.

Evidence of inconsistencies between candidates' words and deeds are plentiful on issues like human rights, democracy, corruption, and freedoms of speech or religion that this is really the ideal time to know not only where they stand, but also to let them explain themselves and what they have actually done.

Voters have the right to know not only the position of candidates on these issues, but also why they are now contradicting their past conduct and statements.

Vision is about the future, something that could or could not happen. Track record has to do with the past, something that has happened and been recorded. Both are important in any election, but the latter would be a better gauge of a leader's quality than the former.

With the battle now focusing on vision and platform, and not so much on track records, candidates are trying to outdo one another in their election promises. Even candidates that are leading the polls have been caught up in the game of promising more than they can ever expect to deliver once elected.

But then, what else is new? Have we not been here before?

If this election is to take us a little further from the last one in 2004, this is one area for improvement. We need to make this election go beyond just the popularity contest that is now being played out.

All candidates should be subjected to a much closer scrutiny than they are getting. We have to go back to their track records and find inconsistencies between what they are preaching today and what they have said or done in the past. Their responses, and how they say them, will be additional crucial tests of their leadership qualities and characters.

Granted, it is easier to check the track records of the incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his Vice President Jusuf Kalla, and, to a lesser extent, SBY's running mate Boediono, since all three have been in public office for much of the past five years.

Megawati was last in the public eye when she was dethroned in 2004, while Wiranto served in public office until 2000 and Prabowo in 1998. But the fact we have to go back 11 years should not stop us from checking their track records in order to judge them.

All six candidates have some dirt from their pasts that they are hiding. This has not come out yet in the campaign, thanks partly to the docile media, partly because the rules regarding election debates aren't designed that way, and partly because the candidates have deployed media experts and spin doctors that have successfully concealed the dirty laundry of the candidates.

For now, it seems, they have outwitted the media and the public.

The worst is over for the Indonesian economy

Jakarta Post - June 12, 2009

Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, Analyst – First quarter GDP data is rather weak. Nevertheless, it appears that the economy will not deteriorate further. In fact, there are early indications that it will soon start to pick up its pace again.

In the first quarter of 2009, the economy grew by 4.4 percent year-on-year (yoy) or slightly slower than the 5.2 percent yoy growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 and down from the 6.4 percent yoy growth pace in the third quarter of 2008. The economy has now slowed down in three successive quarters.

Compared to other countries however, Indonesia has been spared the worst of the global economic downturn. Indeed, some economists have predicted that only three other countries besides Indonesia will post positive economic growth this year (China, India and Vietnam).

The first quarter GDP data suggests that the Indonesian economy will continue to grow in 2009.

This upbeat prognosis will boost investor sentiment, boosting Indonesia's attractiveness as an investment destination relative to some neighboring countries whose economies are in disarray.

This helps to explain the stellar performance of Indonesia's capital markets this year (the benchmark JCI has already gained around 53.4 percent year-to-date).

The still respectable GDP growth in the first quarter of 2009 mainly stemmed from higher household spending. In this quarter, household spending grew an impressive 5.8 percent, its briskest growth pace in the last nine years. Note that in the period 2001 – 2008, household spending only grew by 4.2 percent per year on average.

Firm purchasing power on the back of benign inflation in the first quarter of 2009 helped underpin household spending. Spending has also been supported by improving consumer confidence which has risen to positive levels not seen in the last two years.

Other factors supporting consumer spending have been the relatively low interest rates and the spending associated with the campaigning for the general elections which took place in April.

Government spending also helped drive economic growth. In the first quarter of 2009, government spending grew 19.2 percent, or significantly higher than the 3.6 percent growth in the first quarter of 2008. Investment, however, only grew 3.5 percent while exports dropped 19.2 percent compared to the 1Q08 figures.

In normal times, economic growth coming principally from higher domestic consumption would give rise to concerns. However, these are not normal times and the strong domestic consumption should be viewed positively.

Nonetheless, the slowdown in overall economic growth still raises questions as to when the economy will recover and return to a higher growth trajectory.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) has depicted weakening economic activity since 2008. This index, which tracks the current state of the economy, comprises five components: the car sales index, the cement consumption index, imports, money supply, and the retail sales index. An increase in the CEI shows brisker economic activity.

The CEI has been on a downtrend since July 2008. This suggests that the Indonesian economy has been slowing since that month. This marked downtrend in the index suggests that the Indonesian economy has slowed severely.

Indeed, the Indonesian economy technically entered a recession in November 2008 (based on the sequential signaling method).

Fortunately, the government and the central bank acted promptly to prevent the economy from deteriorating further. Interest rates have been cut aggressively since December 2008.

Lending rates have not come down as quickly as expected, but the impact has still been positive on the economy. And looking ahead, there are more cuts to come.

The interest rate cuts coupled with relatively firm purchasing power have encouraged consumers to continue spending. As such, household spending grew briskly in the first quarter of the year. This helped the economy to avoid a more severe slowdown.

And by March, the corner appears to have been turned. In this month, economic activity appears to have picked up again (as reflected in the increase in the CEI in March). This is the first time the CEI has increased since September 2008.

Looking ahead, the Indonesian economy will continue to improve, as indicated by the increase in the Leading Economic Index (LEI). The LEI is the index which predicts the direction of the economy from 6 to 12 months ahead.

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) comprises seven components: the building permits index, the number of tourist arrivals, the foreign investment approvals index, the real effective exchange rate, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), exports, and the CPI services index.

The LEI fell continuously in the period from January to October 2008. Since then, however, the LEI has stopped falling. And in March the LEI strengthened further. This suggests that the economy will improve in 6 to 12 months time.

The sequential signaling method shows that the Indonesian economy entered a contraction phase in November 2004. But in March 2009, a T1 (first trough) signal was detected, indicating that the economy had reached its lowest point in the downturn.

Thus, the economy stands to pick up its growth rate going forward. In short, the economic prospects over the near term are brighter.

The lending rate is expected to come down with the BI rate. Thus, the declining interest rates will have a bigger impact on the economy in the near future.

Moreover, the realization of government fiscal spending, which has been sluggish in the past, is expected to improve. This will also have a beneficial impact on the economy. We conclude the economic downturn has bottomed out. As such, our economy is bracing for a pick-up in growth in the near future.

[The writer is the chief economist of Danareksa Research Institute.]

Neo-liberalism a dirty Indonesian word

Asia Times - June 11, 2009

Megawati Wijaya, Jakarta – Indonesia's presidential election campaign has swung towards economic policy debate, with challengers to incumbent and frontrunner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono raising questions about his government's commitment to neo- liberal capitalism and offering voters an alternative "people- based economics", known locally as ekonomi kerakyatan.

Hopefuls for the first round of voting on July 8, Jusuf Kalla, the incumbent vice president, and Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former premier, have both taken critical aim at Yudhoyono's neo-liberal credentials, claiming his pro-market policies have cow-towed to Western business interests at the expense of grassroots Indonesians. Should either manage an electoral upset, Indonesia could see a surge in economic nationalism under their leadership.

Kalla's and Megawati's criticism has been mainly motivated by Yudhoyono's surprise decision in mid-May to tap Bank Indonesia governor Boediono, who is not affiliated with any political party, as his vice presidential running mate. A respected technocrat, the Wharton business school-trained Boediono has earned kudos for his handling of the Indonesian economy, both as Yudhoyono's coordinating minister for the economy and as central bank governor, a post he took up in May last year.

As a minister, he oversaw reforms to Indonesia's outdated 1967 Foreign Investment Law that have facilitated greater foreign participation in the economy. The new law, passed in 2007, simplified the former 150-day investment permit process to a one-stop, 30-day registration process, gave stronger and longer property rights to investors, expanded tax incentives, provided greater guarantees against investment expropriation, and allowed for the free repatriation of expatriate capital.

As central bank governor, his monetary easing, including six interest rates cuts since December, has helped to cushion the impact of the global economic meltdown and promoted more spending at home. While Southeast Asia's more export-geared economies tumble towards recession and negative growth, Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.4% in the first quarter this year and is expected to grow at 4.5% for all of 2009.

Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up Indonesia's projected growth to 3%-4% from its previous 1-2% forecast, a strong foreign endorsement of the economy's management in tough times. Boediono also served as a finance minister in Megawati's administration and was widely credited with restoring macroeconomic and currency stability after the country went spectacularly bust in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian economic crisis.

At the same time, Boediono's selection has sparked political ripples, including a sense of pique among Yudhoyono's committed coalition partners. The Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the United Development Party (PPP), and the National Mandate Party (PAN) have all launched attacks on Boediono's selection.

Djoko Susilo, deputy chairman of the PAN faction in the House of Representatives, said Boediono's "neo-liberal Western economic perspective" was not suited for Indonesia's economic situation and that PAN is "suspicious of possible American interference behind the decision" to choose Boediono.

Those criticisms have since been echoed by Yudhoyono's election rivals. Golkar party candidate and incumbent vice president Kalla said that Boediono's neo-liberal tendencies, including the sale of national assets to foreigners, could cause the collapse of the Indonesian economy and turn Indonesians into "migrant workers in their own country". Kalla has instead proposed a "people's economy" approach, entailing grassroots involvement in managing the economy, encouragement of traditional markets and providing micro-finance facilities for small- and medium-sized enterprises.

Meanwhile, Megawati and her running mate, former soldier Prabowo Subianto, have likewise jumped on the populist bandwagon, saying if elected they will emphasize improving the livelihood of those at the bottom of the national income scale, including farmers, fishermen, and small traders at traditional markets. They have vowed to achieve double-digit GDP growth of 10% (compared to Yudhoyono's promised 7% and Kalla's 8%) with "minimum foreign loans and investment".

Yudhoyono's team has defended itself against the opposition's politicized charges. At a press conference arranged by Yudhoyono's election team, his supporters boomeranged the neo- liberal slight onto Megawati, who they noted sold the country's top telecommunications company Indosat and offshore tanks of state-owned national oil and gas company Pertamina to foreign investors during her presidency, which spanned from 2001 to 2004. They also highlighted Kalla's big business background and deals he's brokered with big foreign investors.

IMF legacy

The neo-liberal versus pro-people economy debate has its ideological roots in Indonesia's hard-knocks experience during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The onerous conditions attached to the IMF's US$43 billion bailout package remain hugely controversial due to lingering perceptions they favored foreign over local interests.

Those measures included sovereignty eroding demands to privatize state enterprises, liberalize domestic markets to more foreign competition, and implement trade and tariff reforms that were hugely unpopular among the local commercial elite and economic nationalists. Average Indonesians, meanwhile, faced galloping inflation and lower spending power from a sharply depreciated currency.

When Megawati took over the premiership in 2001, she handed the economic reins to Boediono, who served as her finance minister. In a politically risky maneuver, he shunned economic nationalists in parliament and moved forward with the IMF's neo-liberal prescriptions. Ever since Boediono has overseen Indonesia's deepening market reforms, spanning both Megawati's and Yudhoyono's administrations.

He currently serves as the IMF's governor for Indonesia, a position that gives him the power to vote on IMF decisions and responsibilities for implementing the Fund's policies towards Indonesia. While his dual role and potential for conflict of interests has sparked the opposition campaign against his candidacy, the opposition criticism has been misleading, say some economic analysts.

Since former dictator Suharto's tenure, Indonesia's economic policy has always been a mix of market forces and state intervention, where calibration has always been "a fine tuning process", according to Yohannes Eko Riyanto, a lecturer in economics at the National University of Singapore. Yudhoyono has endeavored to accelerate market reforms, including through the rationalization of the banking and telecommunication industries and overhaul of the Foreign Investment Law.

As a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and signatory to various free trade agreements, Indonesia is legally required to dismantle tariff barriers and promote free competition across various local industries. Despite the populist posturing, neither Kalla nor Megawati is poised to drag the country back to the protectionist 1960s, when import substitution and infant industry protection were en vogue.

Ikhsan Modjo, executive director of Jakarta-based think-tank Institute for Development of Economics and Finance Indonesia (INDEF), notes that Yudhoyono's government has incorporated various pro-people policies into its economic mix. He points in particular to the government's direct cash assistance program, fuel price subsidies, and programs that have aimed to encourage economic empowerment, job opportunities and financial independence for grassroots villages.

Both Modjo and Riyanto raise red flags about Megawati's and Kalla's call for more so-called people-based economics, including unaddressed questions about how such policies would be implemented and financed. They also note that the personal backgrounds of both presidential aspirants have historically been more pro-business than pro-poor, despite each candidate's best efforts to cast themselves on the hustings as sensitive to the country's large number of people living under the poverty line.

Some analysts and investors raise concerns about the anti-Western sentiment in both Kalla's and Megawati's campaign message. To be sure, many Indonesians still believe the IMF's neo-liberal prescriptions plunged the country deeper into crisis and prolonged the period of economic suffering. The economy whipsawed from positive 7% growth to negative 13% at the height of the 1997-98 meltdown.

"Indonesians do not want to taste the same bitter pill again," said former finance minister Rizal Ramli. "It was an economic depression on a scale we had never experienced since independence from Dutch in 1945," he added.

Economic and financial analysts believe Indonesia is better positioned to weather the current global downturn. Analysts note that Yudhoyono was confident enough in the country's fundamentals to refuse an IMF US$2 billion short term lending facility offer to boost the country's flagging currency at the time of the G-20 meeting in Washington last November. On several measures, Indonesia has weathered the current global crisis better than many of its wealthier, more export-oriented regional neighbors, including Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.

Although the neo-liberal versus pro-people economic debate is largely politicized, they also reflect your average Indonesian's worries about the economic future, say analysts. While economic growth has held up relatively well, due to resilient local markets, local industries such as steel and textiles have repeatedly asked the government to tighten import barriers and encourage "buy local" provisions to help them survive the downturn.

More significantly, the gap between rich and poor has recently widened and Yudhoyono has plainly failed to meet key economic targets set in the beginning of his tenure. Both Yudhoyono and Kalla promised to reduce unemployment, which peaked at 9.9% in 2004, to 5.1% when their term expired. The current unemployment rate still stands at 8.5%. Meanwhile the percentage of people living below the poverty line is stuck at 15.4%, down from 16.7% in 2004, but lagging badly behind their set goal of 8.5%.

Yudhoyono kicked off his campaign for a second term last week by saying that a "just and equitable" economy will be his priority if re-elected. He also introduced a new catchphrase to counter the neo-liberal mudslinging, a policy approach he referred to as the "middle-way" economy. Indonesia will not surrender everything to the free market, he said, but would embrace the efficiencies of a well-functioning market mechanism while ensuring more equitable wealth distribution.

According to opinion polls, Yudhoyono has hit the right economic notes. A recent poll conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute showed that Yudhoyono's popularity now hovers around 70%. To narrow that gap, Kalla and Megawati are expected to attack his economic record during the three rounds of upcoming presidential debates to be telecast live on national television.

Pollsters and analysts say Indonesians are concerned mainly with bread and butter issues that directly affect their livelihood and are unlikely to be swayed by abstract philosophical debates over neo-liberal and people-based policies. And if the preliminary polls have it right, the election is Yudhoyono's to lose.

"Rather than debating on economic philosophy, the challengers should concentrate on elaborating their own concrete policies to fight the country's most urgent problems: poverty and unemployment," said Modjo.

[Megawati Wijaya is a Singapore-based journalist. She may be contacted at megawati.wijaya@gmail.com.]

Not a campaign statement

Jakarta Post Editorial - June 9, 2009

The other two presidential hopefuls may be suspicious of the rosy projection for the Indonesian economy made Friday by the International Monetary Fund and its high commendation of incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (SBY) management of the economy in coping with the fall out from the global financial crisis.

As the campaigning period for the July 8 presidential election is now officially open, anything that is seen as being in favor of one of the three candidates could be the subject of suspicion. The IMF mission, which concluded a 10-day assessment of the Indonesian economy last week, is quite bullish about the country's economic outlook, praising the timely policy changes made to cope with the shocks of the global financial crisis, and revising upward its 2009 growth projection for the country to a range of 3-4 percent, from 2.5 percent previously.

At first glance, the conclusion and the timing of the economic review seemed to be designed to bolster the grand-posturing of the SBY-Boediono ticket. Recent allegations labeling former central bank governor Boediono a neoliberalist and staunch supporter of the IMF only added to the suspicions of this economic assessment.

But it is worth noting here that the IMF makes its regular annual assessment of Indonesia's economy in light of its surveillance mechanism in late May. Last year, its annual review was completed on May 29. Hence it is a simple coincidence that this year's assessment comes at the start of the campaign period for the presidential election.

The bullish projection of the Indonesian economy reflects its actual condition. The economy expanded by 4.4 percent on the back of vigorous domestic consumption over the first quarter as most other countries contracted. In fact, throughout Asia, only Indonesia, India and China still made respectable gains.

The fiscal stimulus and massive political spending related to the legislative election last April and the upcoming presidential election contributed greatly to boosting domestic consumption at a time when the demand from the international market contracted by around 30 percent.

The IMF's final report will not be available until August, but their preliminary findings, summed up in a news conference last week, were not without strong notes of caution.

The IMF economists warned that the signs of global recovery or "green shoots" in the economies of developed countries may not sustain for the rest of the year. There is still a lot of uncertainty and the potential for another bout of adverse swings in global markets remains.

Hence, careful macro-economic management will have to continue. This is especially challenging now as both the incumbent president and vice president as well as many Cabinet ministers become preoccupied with campaigning.

Pending the appointment of a new central bank governor to succeed Boediono, which is not expected before August, the burden of economic management now falls heavily on Finance Minister and Acting Chief Economic Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati (fiscal) and Bank Indonesia Senior Deputy Governor Miranda Goeltom (monetary).

Accelerating the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures should be the government's priority number one, as the impact of election-related expenditures will fade next month and economic growth must be maintained for the rest of the year.

Disconnect between global concerns and local issues continues

Jakarta Post - June 9, 2009

Debnath Guharoy, Consultant – The series of special polls keeping a finger on the pulse of the Indonesian consumer continues. Some 2,015 respondents 14 years and older were interviewed by Roy Morgan Research in big cities, smaller towns and villages across the country. The results were recently compiled for public release.

Asked which was the main factor that influenced the current economic conditions, almost half the respondents believed it was the price of everyday essentials.

Though lower than the runaway prices of 2008, the pain at the pasar is still being felt. This is more pronounced among women.

In sharp contrast, only 37 percent believe the primary reason for today's difficulties is the global economic crisis. This view is shared predominantly by the younger generations 14-35 years of age, more an urban view rather than rural.

There can be no harder evidence of the big divide, global concerns versus local issues.

Respondents were then asked about their fears today. Above anything else, the biggest worry is the prospect of not being able to pay for the household's daily expenses.

Six out of ten Indonesians share that concern, a fundamental nagging fear that doesn't go away. It's a simple number that speaks volumes, drawing a line between the haves and the have- nots.

That dividing line is perhaps best expressed in material terms by those who have a motorcycle in the household and those that don't. Many of them find it difficult to pay the bills even at the best of times. Then there are the underprivileged, about a third of all households who own precious little.

Today, 48 percent of Indonesians believe that the current situation "has influenced my life". 37 percent believe it "has influenced my life very much".

The small percentage that have a car at home are indeed Indonesia's affluent, in varying degrees of comfort to opulence. Dinner party conversations focussed on the price of BMWs, the decimated values of mutual funds or the state of the stock market reflect the callous attitude of the elite. Insensitive to the concerns of the majority, they are victims of their own ignorance.

Overly influenced by the global turmoil, using it as a convenient excuse, some of them have added to the present pain of the common man. Jobs that could have been saved were not, prices that could be lowered were not.

Some 41 percent of the population fear that "the head of the household will be out of work" as a result of the economic conditions.

This is even more of a concern in rural Indonesia. With the average main earner accustomed to the usual struggle to pay everyday expenses, this is akin to an existential threat affecting much of the population.

A third of the population worry that "the head of the household will not be able to find work", despite the fact that retrenchment has slowed down and some of the skilled workforce is beginning to find jobs again.

In terms of social impacts, 38 percent fear an "increase in criminal activities". And 36 percent believe that "social unrest like riots" are not beyond the realm of possibilities.

Thus far, these worries have been largely unfounded with no noticeable spikes in crime reported from around the country. Only 4 percent of respondents appeared to be unperturbed by current conditions.

In contrast, the amazing optimism of the same Indonesian consumer is reflected in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index at 117, among the highest in the world. Hope for better times, even in these difficult times, reigns supreme.

That confidence, that hope, is being supported by government initiatives at the grass roots and national levels. Stimulus funds have started flowing to build infrastructure projects both large and small. Gross Domestic Product is in positive territory, third only to China and India.

The national debt that will finance much of these job-creating projects is not to be compared with the burden facing neighbors like Australia. Even the IMF has recognized Indonesia's immediate prospects, revising its forecast upwards.

The US is in a league of its own with the individual share of its debt at over US$35,000 per capita today.

That debt is expected to soar uncontrollably forward to $23 trillion by 2019, saddled with the rising health care and social security costs of an ageing population.

Those borrowed funds are financed largely by China, Japan and EU countries. The impact of a no-show at the next monthly auction of US Treasury bonds is unimaginable, with consequences that would dwarf today's global financial crisis.

Then, the shades of pain in Indonesia would turn several shades darker. For now, there is no better protection than their need to buy more in future, to protect the investments of the past.

Such doomsday scenarios are beyond the control of individual businesses. What is within reach is the ability to protect as many jobs as possible, cut wastage and keep prices in control.

It is the high price of everyday essentials that is creating the current stress faced by the average Indonesian.

[The writer can be contacted at Debnath.Guharoy@roymorgan.com.]