Jakarta – Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) will launch a big rally during the upcoming 39th Asian Development Bank (ADB) annual meeting in Bali from May 2 until May 5.

The protest will focus on the bank's failure to help get poor and developing Asian countries out of a vicious cycle of debt entrapment.

"We have not made any calculation yet, but the number might reach 1,000 protesters just from Indonesia," the Indonesian Farmers Union (SPI) foreign affairs department head Muhammad Ikhwan said on Tuesday. "We have also coordinated with fellow NGOs from Asian countries to join the rally.

The NGO coalition also includes the Women's Union, the Anti-Debt Coalition (KAU), the NGO Forum on ADB, the People's Coalition for Fisheries Justice, Friends of the Earth Indonesia (WALHI) and the Mining Advocacy Network (Jatam).

KAU chairman Dani Setiawan opposed the signing of another foreign loan agreement during this crisis.

"The government said the meeting would discuss ways to safeguard the economy in the midst of the global crisis through loan deals. But the truth is that such deals will do nothing to improve our economy, but only make it worse," he said.

"The existence of international monetary institutions, such as ADB, with their massive distribution of foreign loans to third world countries has resulted in periodic financial crises since the 1980s," he said.

According to the coalition at least 16.4 percent of Indonesian government foreign debts is owed to ADB, while another 13.6 percent is owed to the World Bank. The ADB has lent US$10.9 billion to Indonesia, the bank's largest debtor and fourth largest shareholder.

Total debt and dependency are likely to increase as the country has planned to sign another agreement in which it will receive an annual loan worth $1 billion per year until 2010 from ADB, the coalition said.

"It's indisputable that the government has (become) somewhat addicted to foreign debt like a junkie on drugs," Coordinator for the NGO Forum on ADB Titi Suntoro said.

Aceh

Discontent simmers with Aceh's 'silly' take on shariah

Deutsche Presse Agentur - April 12, 2009

Ahmad Pathoni, Banda Aceh – Stories about young unmarried couples in Aceh Province arrested by religious patrol officers make frequent headlines in local newspapers with tabloids exposing details of the offenders' sexual trysts.

Staunchly Muslim Aceh has imposed some aspects of Shariah, or Islamic law, since 2002 under an autonomy scheme granted by the central government as part of attempts to pacify a clamor there for independence.

A series of regulations, known as qanuns, criminalize consumption and sale of alcoholic beverages, gambling and illicit relations between men and women, with caning the main punishment. Muslim women are required to wear headscarves.

A government agency called the Wilayatul Hisbah was set up in 2003 to monitor the implementation of regulations, but seven years after Islamic law came into force, many Acehnese are critical of how it is being implemented.

Some Acehnese said the Wilayatul Hisbah focuses too much on individual moral behavior while others accused enforcers of ignoring offenses committed by the rich and powerful.

"The way they implement Shariah is so silly," said Aprilia, a woman who works for a government office in the provincial capital, Banda Aceh. "They only focused on arresting unmarried couples and don't even bother gamblers anymore.

"People with money can bribe their way out of trouble. For a few million rupiah, you can get away," she said.

Another Acehnese criticized Shariah patrol officers for what he called preferential treatment.

"I support Shariah, but it seems to me it is only being enforced on the poor," said Wahdar, who sells cellphone vouchers.

"Rich people go to hotels and commit adultery, but they are never arrested," he said. "Poor unmarried couples can only afford to go to the beach, and that's where they get arrested."

Critics said the antivice patrol by Wilayatul Hisbah officers encourage people to report on their neighbor and promote a kind of moral vigilantism.

The head of provincial Shariah affairs, Ziauddin Ahmad, defended the implementation of the laws, saying that in most cases, offenders were released after being given religious advice.

Aceh polls run smoothly despite tense run-up

Jakarta Post - April 10, 2009

Alfian and Hotli Simanjuntak, Banda Aceh – The legislative polls were held peacefully in the restive Aceh province, despite a volley of accusations of intimidation by local parties' members and supporters.

More than 3 million eligible voters went to more than 62,000 polling stations to elect their representatives for the House of Representatives, Regional Representatives Council, and provincial, regency and municipal legislatures. Unlike in other provinces, eligible voters here were more enthusiastic about casting their ballots because besides the 38 national parties, six local parties were also allowed to contest the legislative polls.

The presence of local parties was recommended in the 2005 Helsinki peace pact between the Indonesian government and the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) to end the three-decade conflict that had claimed more than 2,000 lives.

The police, tasked with maintaining security and public order, lauded the peaceful and secure elections, and expressed hope that the upcoming presidential election would take place in a similar fashion.

"The Aceh Police chief has monitored the election in the province and, thanks be to God, no security threats have emerged so far," said Aceh Police spokesman Sr. Comr. Farid A Soleh. Voting went ahead peacefully in Cot Keueung, a former GAM stronghold in Aceh Besar regency, as voters showed up early in the morning at polling stations.

"We come here happily without any concern of intimidation. We are here because we want to cast our votes," said local resident Roukayah.

She added she was optimistic her vote would contribute to the province's development. "Every single vote counts and is important."

Cot Keueung was notorious as a "red area", a term used by locals to describe an area where frequent violence occurred. Roukayah said one of her brothers was murdered in front of her house during the past conflict.

Similar scenes of calm were also found in Seuneubok Meureudu village, East Aceh. "Everything is safe, as we conducted a night watch on Wednesday night," said local resident Sulaiman.

Marring the otherwise peaceful polling day were caustic accusations traded between Aceh Governor Irwandi Yusuf – a former GAM combatant and senior Aceh Party figure – and Deputy Governor Muhammad Nazar, chief patron of the SIRA Party.

Irwandi, who actively campaigned for the Aceh Party, claimed his party continued to face intimidation even on the last day of the election. "The Aceh Party's legislative candidates in Langsa and Aceh Pidie regency were intimidated by members of another party," Irwandi told reporters after casting his vote in Bandar Baru subdistrict, Kuta Alam, Banda Aceh.

Countering Irwandi's accusations, Nazar said SIRA had long since been the target of intimidation. "SIRA's observers in several regencies, including Aceh Jaya, East Aceh and Aceh Besar, were forbidden from coming to polling stations by one of the local parties," Nazar said, referring to the Aceh Party.

He added his party would file a report on the intimidation with the Constitutional Court. Besides the squabble between the governor and his deputy, the polls were also marked with some logistical problems.

Local party claims winning vote in Aceh

Jakarta Post - April 10, 2009

Jakarta – The Aceh Party, the leading local party in Aceh whose members mostly include former Free Aceh Movement (GAM) combatants, claimed winning the popular vote in the province.

"Temporary vote result on Thursday night shows that the Aceh Party won 70 percent votes," said Tengku Adnan Beuransyah, the party spokesman, as quoted by Antara in the province capital Banda Aceh on Friday.

Antara news agency reported that 19 of 21 cities and regencies in the province have reported their vote counting by Thursday night.

The party won 80 to 98 percent votes in from its loyal supporters in Bieruen, North Aceh, East Aceh and Nagan Raya regencies. In other regencies, including Aceh Besar, Southwest Aceh, Gayo Luas and Aceh Singkil, the party won 65 to 75 percent votes. In the province capital Banda Aceh, it won 50 percent of vote.

"We predict that we will have better result after the counting over," said Beuransyah. (dre)

In Indonesia's Aceh, some discontent over Islamic law

Deutsche Presse Agentur - April 8, 2009

Banda Aceh – In Indonesia's Aceh province, stories about young unmarried couples arrested by religious patrol officers make frequent headlines in local newspapers with tabloids exposing details of the offenders' sexual trysts.

Staunchly Muslim Aceh has imposed some aspects of sharia, or Islamic law, since 2002 under an autonomy scheme granted by the central government as part of attempts to pacify a clamour there for independence.

A series of regulations, known as qanuns, criminalize consumption and sale of alcoholic beverages, gambling and illicit relations between men and women with caning the main punishment. Muslim women are required to wear headscarves.

A government agency called the Wilayatul Hisbah was set up in 2003 to monitor the implementation of the regulations, but seven years after Islamic law came into force, many Acehnese are critical of the way it is being implemented.

Some Acehnese said the Wilayatul Hisbah focuses too much on individual moral behaviour while others accused enforcers of ignoring offenses committed by the rich and powerful.

"The way they implement sharia is so silly," said Aprilia, a woman who works for a government office in the provincial capital, Banda Aceh. "They only focused on arresting unmarried couples and don't even bother gamblers anymore."

"People with money can bribe their way out of trouble. For a few million rupiah, you can get away," she said, referring to the Indonesian currency, 2 million of which is worth 175 dollars.

Another Acehnese criticized sharia patrol officers for what he called their preferential treatment. "I support sharia, but it seems to me it is only being enforced on the poor," said Wahdar, who sells mobile phone-reload vouchers.

"Rich people go to hotels and commit adultery, but they are never arrested," said the man who, like many Indonesians, goes by only one name. "Poor unmarried couples can only afford to go to the beach, and that's where they get arrested."

Critics said the anti-vice patrol by Wilayatul Hisbah officers encourage people to report on their neighbours and promote a kind of moral vigilantism.

In a front-page story on March 24, the Metro Aceh tabloid reported that a man was beaten up by villagers after he was allegedly caught having sex with his girlfriend at her house in the eastern town of Sigli. The villagers then handed him over to local officials, it said.

The head of provincial sharia affairs, Ziauddin Ahmad, defended the implementation of the laws, saying that in most cases, offenders were released after being given religious advice.

"Punishment is a last resort," Ziauddin said. "Our main mission is to educate the people. We prioritize regulations that are urgently needed by the people and when the people are ready to implement them."

He said the regular reports in newspapers on unmarried couples being arrested for being alone together indicated the public was concerned about the issue. "In the past, such things happened but were not exposed to the public," he said.

He said the requirement for Muslim women to cover themselves was meant to protect them.

"For example, an Australian model who was detained in Bali was constantly harassed by prison guards, but after she wore a headscarf, nobody disturbed her," he said, referring to Michelle Leslie, a model who decided to wear a headscarf after being arrested on drug charges on the Indonesian resort island.

"When something is half open, you want to see it in full, but when it's fully covered, you have no interest to know what is inside," he said.

The Indonesian government and the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) signed a peace pact in 2005, ending decades of conflict that cost 15,000 lives. The pact was spurred by the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed about 170,000 people in Aceh alone.

Aguswandi, a British-educated human rights activist who leads the Aceh People's Party, one of six local political parties contesting Thursday's legislative elections, said Islamic regulations focusing on morality were not what Aceh needed.

"It has become a distraction when we should be dealing with challenges such as maintaining the peace, tackling the economy and establishing good governance," Aguswandi said.

Aguswandi said the dominant voice of what he called supporters of "Islamic conservatism" was cause for concern and that many Acehnese are critical of the aspects of sharia that are being implemented.

"Whether women should wear headscarves is not a major issue," he said. "It's not the business of the state to regulate on such individual matters. We are all victims of this distracting process."

Aguswandi said not all Islamic scholars agreed with the aspects of sharia in force in Aceh, but it was too sensitive to be a campaign issue for political parties contesting seats in the provincial and district councils. "We could be accused of being anti-Islamic" for expressing opposition to sharia, he said.

West Papua

PNG Police Commissioner says PNG-Indonesia border tense

Radio New Zealand International - April 15, 2009

Papua New Guinea's Police Commissioner says the situation remains tense in an area on the common border of Indonesia and PNG where reports say eleven people have been killed in fighting between Indonesian military and Papuan separatists.

Gary Baki says he is unable to confirm the deaths because the fighting occurred on the Indonesian side of the border

However he says police in the PNG town of Vanimo, near where the fighting took place late last week, say that increased fighting has coincided with a large build-up of Indonesian troops in the border area.

Gary Baki says no PNG villages have been touched by the fighting and local PNG police are monitoring the situation.

"And we also have the PNG Defence Force personnel based in Vanimo, travelling up and down to Wutung to oversee what is happening over there. We're anticipating that by Friday we'll be flying a mobile police squad from Port Moresby directly into Vanimo as well just to provide surveillance just on the border areas and some other parts of the PNG border side."

New suspect as attacks in Papua continue

Jakarta Post - April 14, 2009

Erwida Maulia and Dicky Christanto, Jakarta – National Police Chief Gen. Bambang Hendarso Danuri said here Monday the police had named another suspect who could have masterminded the recent attacks in the country's eastern most province.

As the tally of suspects was raised to seven as of Monday, another motorcycle taxi driver (ojek) was killed in Wamena Sunday evening, bringing the deaths from the recent violence up to 12 within the last week.

While other officers linked the violence with the rebel Free Papua Movement (OPM), Bambang said they were merely "a group of armed men violating the laws", and firm action should be taken against them. "They've planned all the attacks," Bambang said.

TNI chief Gen. Djoko Santoso, however, said that the OPM could be behind the attack, and that (if so) it did them in an attempt to tell the public that the group stil existed.

The Jayawijaya police office said Monday that motorcycle taxi driver Supandi Juhari, 31, was murdered on Jalan Sanger in the city by four unknown individuals thought to be supporters of a separatist group.

Jayawiyaja police chief Mulia Hasudungan Ritonga said the motive for the murder was likely to be similar to that behind the killing of the other ojek drivers on April 8. "The perpetrators are allegedly part of the Papuan separatist group TPN/OPM," he told tempointeraktif.com.

Wamena is still tense and security personnel are on high alert following the murders.

National police spokesman Insp. Gen. Abubakar Nataprawira also said that the Free Papua Organization (OPM) was behind the series of attacks while Papua police Chief Insp. Gen. Bagus Ekodanto said suspects' testimonies, banners and fliers called for the sabotaging of the legislative elections proved that the OPM was involved.

A series of attacks hit Papua since election day. Unidentified gunmen also attacked the security post at the Skaw Wutung border between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea at 1 a.m. No casualties were reported.

Half an hour later, the Abepura Police station was attacked by about 50 men armed with homemade bombs, spears, cleavers, bows and arrows and cassowary bones. Police officers shot into the crowd, killing one attacker and injuring eight.

At daybreak, the rector's building at Cendrawasih University, 5 kilometers from the police station, was set ablaze by unknown people. The fire destroyed documents and badly damaged the building, but claimed no fatalities.

On Wednesday evening, unknown assailants stabbed five ojek (motorcycle taxi) drivers in Wamena, leaving four of them dead and the fifth in a critical condition.

Two hours later, a fuel storage tank at state oil company PT Pertamina's depot in Biak exploded, killing a bystander.

West Papua, on Vanuatu agenda

Vanuatu Daily Post - April 14, 2009

Lora Lini – The decision of the Minister for Foreign Affairs to look over to South East Asia is not just to strengthen diplomatic relations with the region but a door for Vanuatu to understand better the issue of West Papua.

Minister Kaltongga revealed that West Papua is included in the Government's plan for the region.

The Minister's statement comes as a reinforcement of previous historic statements that were made by former Prime Ministers of Vanuatu such as Walter Lini, Serge Vohor and Barak Sope who have during their term whether as Prime Minister or Minister for Foreign Affairs continued to fly the flag of West Papua.

His revelation now confirms the young politician's vision to ensure that Vanuatu who have been very vocal about the issue maintain this status on the eve of the end of the decade for decolonization.

The statement by Minister Kaltongga also highlights Vanuatu as the first Melanesian country to officially recognize the issue of West Papua in its agenda despite previous decisions from within the MSG itself to not allow West Papua take an observer status.

Minister Kaltongga told journalists at a press conference in Port Vila last week that the Government's decision to set up an office in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia is to accommodate future dialogue on how best to address this issue with Indonesia.

His announcement is the first ever by a member country of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG).

He informed that while posts will be advertised for the high offices in key corners of the world in the coming weeks, he is encouraging Ni-Vanuatu people to have academic, professional and experience credentials to apply for the posts.

He said the government is firm on getting the right information on issues concerning its Melanesian counterparts saying that is why Vanuatu will very soon set up its first embassy in Fiji – something he said should enable the government to make better decisions on regional matters and trade.

Police arrest alleged mastermind of Abepura attack

Jakarta Post - April 13, 2009

Jakarta – National Police Chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri said in Jakarta on Monday that police had arrested a man believed to be the mastermind of the attack on a police precinct in Abepura, Papua Province, last week.

"The initial evidence indicates they committed violent actions, and we are going to process another person suspected of having provoked the attackers," Bambang said to Antara state-news agency.

Bambang said the attackers were members of an armed group but refused to link them to the Free Papua Movement (OPM). "No, we don't want to mention it [OPM]. They were definitely members of an armed group which violated the law, so we will be taking action," he said.

The group's members were responsible for other brazen attacks, the general said.

"They have been committing violent attacks for some time now. Prior to the legislative elections, they attacked a post command and killed a military figure. They had planned these attacks," he said.

The Indonesian Police earlier named six suspects and interrogated eight others as witnesses concerning the several incidences of violence in Abepura.

Last Thursday, a number of unidentified attackers assaulted settlers in Wamena, Jayawijaya, Papua. Two people were killed and several others injured in the incident. A police post at the Mutung border, between Papua and Papua New Guinea, also came under fire from unknown attackers.

The latest incident occurred Sunday evening, when a bomb exploded near the Abepura police office. No one was injured in the blast.

Eleven killed in Papua as series of incidents mars voting day

Jakarta Post - April 10, 2009

Jakarta Post, Papua/Jakarta – Papua was on high alert Thursday as a range of incidents, including attacks on police stations, claimed 11 lives to mar voting day in the country's easternmost province, still plagued by separatist threats.

The incidents, however, did not prevent most Papuans from voting on election day. According to National Police data, 75 percent of Papuans voted at more than 6,000 polling stations across the province.

Home Minister Mardiyanto said the polls had to be delayed in Yahukimo and Paniaki, with bad weather obstructing the delivery of polling material to the two regencies.

The disruptions began Wednesday at noon, when homemade bombs exploded under a bridge on the border between Papua and Papua New Guinea. No one was killed, but police found two unexploded bombs while sweeping the area. On Wednesday evening, unknown assailants stabbed five ojek (motorcycle taxi) drivers in Wamena, leaving four of them dead and one in critical condition. Two hours later, a fuel storage tank at state oil company PT Pertamina's depot in Biak exploded during refilling, instantly killing a bystander.

At around 1 a.m. on Thursday, police security posts at the Skaw Wutung border between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea were attacked by unknown gunmen, with no casualties reported.

Half an hour later, about 50 men armed with homemade bombs, spears, cleavers, bows and cassowary bones attacked the Abepura Police station in Jayapura. The police shot into the crowd, killing one attacker and injuring eight others.

At daybreak, the rector's building at Cendrawasih University – about 5 kilometers from the Abepura Police station – was set ablaze by unknown people. The fire razed important documents and badly damaged one of the building's three floors, but claimed no casualties.

Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu said all the incidents, except the explosion at the Pertamina depot, were intended to disrupt the elections in Papua. He added the depot explosion was simply an accident.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla said he had received a report from Papua Police indicating efforts and a conspiracy to disrupt the elections.

But National Police chief Gen. Bambang Hendarso Danuri said the attack on the Abepura Police station had nothing to do with the polls, adding it was a random attack aimed at undermining security officers.

"This was purely an act of violence committed by armed guerillas," Bambang told reporters after meeting with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the latter's private residence in Cikeas, Bogor, to discuss the attacks.

Police have named six people as suspects in the attack and are questioning eight others as witnesses.

Later the same day, a small aircraft operated by local airline Aviastar crashed in Wamena, killing all six crew on board. The cause of the crash is currently being investigated.

Police blame OPM separatists for attacks just before polls

Jakarta Globe - April 10, 2009

Christian Motte – Police in Papua Province on Friday blamed the separatist Free Papua Movement, or OPM, for a series of attacks over the past few days, after finding a flier from the group on the body of one of the victims.

Papua Police Chief Insp. Gen. Bagus Ekodanto said they believed that groups of OPM members were responsible for the attacks in Papua because "we have the evidence of fliers found at the scene of the attack" in Wamena, the capital of Jayawijaya district.

In Wamena on Wednesday night, five people who were not ethnically Papuan were attacked at four separate locations. Three of the victims were killed. One of the fliers found at the scene was discovered on a victim's body.

Bagus said the printed material was written as a letter from the "Commander of the Free Papua National Liberation Army." "The letter seemed to have been deliberately left on the victim's body," Bagus said.

Protesters attacked a police post in Abepura, near the provincial capital of Jayapura, early on Thursday before polls opened for election day. Retaliatory gunfire by police resulted in the death of one of the attackers there. Other incidents included an attack on Thursday on a police post near the border between Papua and Papua New Guinea. No injuries were reported.

Jayapura Police Chief Adj. Sr. Comr. Robert Djoenso said on Friday that the attacks "were suspected to be by activists of the OPM bent on sabotaging the election."

The Jayapura shooting caused delays in the voting because of rumors of a planned attack on polling stations in Gurabesi and Imbi, two urban wards in North Jayapura district.

However, there were also delays in the delivery of ballot papers to the two polling stations. A member of a local elections committee in Imbi said at least five polling places received elections material late. Deliveries arrived between 3 a.m. and 4:30 a.m. on Thursday, under police protection.

Julius Sawaki, 38, a resident of Gurabesi, said that the delay was caused by a number of factors, including a violent incident in Abepura, the site of one of the lethal attacks.

Toni Mandosir, the coordinator of a polling station in Jayapura district, Yabansai, said voting there opened late because residents were wary of attacks.

Bagus said police were continuing to pursue the attackers. Five people had been named as suspects in the Wamena attacks, while three other people were being questioned.

An investigation into the attack on the Abepura Police post turned up four Molotov cocktails and cables. Police also found an exploded bomb, 10 jerrycans of gasoline, three bows and several arrows.

Fifteen people were arrested as suspects. Bagus said that in the Abepura incident, police had shot several of the attackers. Eri Lego was shot in the stomach, Dino Agobi in the knee and Andi Gobai in the right foot. The man shot to death by police had not yet been identified.

Yogyakarta to organize another vote for Papuans after attack

Jakarta Post - April 10, 2009

Slamet Susanto, Yogyakarta – Hundreds of Papuan students in Yogyakarta ran amok at the provincial general elections commission (KPUD) office after they could not find their voting booths.

The Papuans brought with them A5 forms to allow them to vote outside their constituencies, but the KPUD Yogyakarta spread them out over 205 voting booths in the three subdistricts of Jetis, Tegalrejo and Gedongtengen.

With many students unable to find their voting booths, they demanded they be allowed to vote at one place, but poll officials argued there were not enough ballots.

The Papuans then got angry, pulling out flag posts and destroying flower vases at the election commission office, and even attack police officers guarding the office.

"We just wanted them to provide a place for us to vote. Our time ran out just looking for the 205 voting booths," said Benny Dimara, one of the protesting Papuans.

After the attacks, the KPUD agreed to conduct a special vote for the Papuans on Friday at the commission compound.

"Based on a directive from the General Elections Commission (KPU), tomorrow morning we will hold another vot for all Papuan students," Yogyakarta KPUD chairwoman Any Rohyati told hundreds of Papuans. After the announcement, the protest ended.

"The solution to have another vote for us is a positive one. We will go to the KPUD Yogyakarta tomorrow," Benny said.

According to KPUD data, there are 525 Papuan students eligible to vote in Yogyakarta.

Five killed in Papua violence as Indonesia votes

Agence France Presse - April 9, 2009

Abepura – Indonesian police shot a man dead Thursday when about 100 people armed with arrows and bombs attacked a police post in Papua province as the country held general elections, police said.

In all, five people were killed in violent incidents across the restive eastern province overnight Wednesday and early Thursday, police said.

Calls for Papuan independence have grown ahead of the elections and Papua police chief Bagus Eko Danto said the incidents were aimed at "sabotaging" the election. "The incidents... indicate that there are people who want the elections to fail," he said.

Police opened fire when around 100 people attacked their post in Abepura town just outside the provincial capital Jayapura. Senior police officer Domingus Rumaropen said the attackers threw a bomb that hit a fence and exploded around 1:30 a.m. local time before officers were able to drive them away.

"The police opened fire and chased them. One of them was shot and fell into a drain. Three bullets hit him," Rumaropen said, adding nine of the attackers were arrested. Fourteen men, all students, have been arrested in connection with the attack, police said.

Meanwhile, three people were killed and two injured in stabbing attacks on non-indigenous Papuans in the highland town of Wamena late Wednesday.

"Three motorcycle-taxi drivers died from the attacks. Two civilians are in critical condition and being treated in Wamena hospital," local police chief Mulya Hasudungan Ritonga said.

In other incidents, a building at the Abepura university was set ablaze while a fuel depot on the island of Biak caught fire in suspicious circumstances, killing a four-year-old girl.

Members of the elite Mobile Brigade were also involved in a 15- minute dawn firefight with unidentified gunmen near the border with Papua New Guinea, but no one was known to be injured, police chief Danto said.

Pro-independence sentiment runs high in Papua, which sits on the western end of New Guinea island and is populated mainly by ethnic Melanesians.

Indonesia took formal control of the region in a 1969 UN- sponsored vote by select tribal elders widely seen as a sham and the area has seen a long-running insurgency waged by poorly armed pro-independence guerrillas.

Calls for probe after shootings at Papuan demo

ABC News - April 9, 2009

Matt Brown – Human rights activists say a 10-year-old boy was among nine Melanesians shot after Indonesian paramilitary police broke up a pro-independence protest in Papua.

The ABC has obtained footage of the incident in the small town of Nabire on Monday, and Amnesty International is calling for an independent investigation.

Local activists are campaigning for independence from Indonesia, and Monday's demonstration was demanding a boycott of the upcoming Indonesian national elections.

Whoever recorded the footage is standing amidst the Indonesian security forces. While it is hard to tell what happens next, the sounds of gunshots are unmistakable.

Paramilitary police, armed with automatic weapons, run towards the crowd, then an officer is rushed back to a police truck with a traditional arrow sticking out of his leg.

A colleague pulls it out quickly before he is bundled into the back. The images are focused on the police. One chuckles as he displays a grazed leg.

But human rights activists say at least nine other people were hurt and several suffered critical injuries.

The small protest was part of a long and brutal history. First Indonesian troops invaded, then the UN endorsed a deeply flawed vote to make Papua a province of Indonesia in the 1960s. Ever since, local activists have been campaigning for a fresh poll and independence.

Melbourne-based Papuan human rights activist Paula Makabory says she will not vote in the election. "They say that we are not Indonesian, we are Papuan, Melanesians," she said.

Amnesty International's Isabelle Arradon says this is not the first incident in the town and there should be an independent investigation.

"It is the third demonstration since September 2008 where some demonstrators in Nabire have been shot by police," she said. "Basically, the use of firearms should only be used as a last resort. It is very shocking that a 10-year-old boy was injured during the demonstration on Monday."

Ms Makabory says the violence was orchestrated by provocateurs employed by the Indonesian military. "According to the eyewitnesses those six people are the militias... from Indonesia's security forces who have used the situation to trigger conflicts between demonstrators and the police," she said.

Without an impartial inquiry, it is hard to know what has been happening in this part of Papua.

But the footage clearly shows uniformed officers working with other men dressed in civilian clothes. Some of them are wearing crash helmets, another is pictured wearing military-style pants and a cut-off T-shirt brandishing an automatic rifle.

Democracy at this end of the archipelago is indeed a fraught thing.

Papua still struggling despite autonomy

Jakarta Post - April 8, 2009

Jakarta – Poverty, poor education, and a lack of health care continue to plague Papua eight years after centralized control gave way to regional autonomy in the province.

The current government in Papua is highly corrupt and entrenched in traditional values that do not necessarily benefit democracy or development, speakers at a seminar in Jakarta said Tuesday.

"[Papuan] authorities have failed to provide locals with basic necessities," Muridan S. Widjojo, a researcher from the Center for Political Studies at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), told the seminar looking at governance in the country's most eastern province.

In 2001 the central government granted Papua special autonomy, which allowed the formation of the Papuan People's Council (MRP) and the introduction of traditional laws to settle legal matters.

"Many leaders were chosen simply because they were local politicians' sons," Muridian said. "They might lack competency."

Yusak Reba, from the Institute for Civil Strengthening Papua, offered a similar assessment at the same event. He said the Papua administration had failed implementing special autonomy for the benefit of the people.

"Attempts to build basic educational facilities have been unsuccessful," Muridan said. "Many health centers are still lacking staff and the necessary drug supply."

Vidhyandika D. Perkasa from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that just five years ago, Papua's poverty rate was twice that of the national rate.

"The Central Bureau of Statistics' data showed that in 2004, almost 39 percent of Papua's citizens were living below the poverty line," Vidhyandika said. In 2005, the region's human development index of 62.1 was the lowest among the country's 33 provinces.

Vidhyandika said some Papuan leaders still put their family's interests first when running the government. "For instance, they see no problem in helping their needy relatives using funds from the regional budget, because they fear karma more than the law."

He added that traditional values also prevented Papuans from clans other than that of the local leader from ever entering government. "The leaders tend to pick those from their own clans, or those close to them," he said.

"A government survey in 2006 showed that 71 percent of respondents thought the number of corruption cases in Papua was high," Vidhyandika said. According to data from LIPI, the central government has distributed around Rp 1.3 trillion to Rp 1.5 trillion every year to Papua to support its special autonomy projects, but only a fraction has been spent on and health and education.

In 2008 only 8 percent of the regional budget was allocated to develop health facilities, despite the fact that nearly 70 percent of locals were HIV positive and more than 75 percent had Malaria.

Muridian said the education sector lacked teachers and facilities, resulting in extremely low educational standards. In 2008, only 4.19 percent of the regional budget was allocated to developing the education system. (dis)

Human rights/law

Court sends activist to prison over violent fuel price protest

Jakarta Post - April 9, 2009

Jakarta – On Wednesday, Central Jakarta District Court sentenced Ferry Juliantono to one year in prison for triggering a riot following a protest over the fuel price hike in June last year.

Ferry, who is secretary-general of the Indonesia Rise Committee (KBI), was found guilty of escalating tensions among students and persuading them to act violently against police officers. Previously, prosecutors had demanded he be sentenced to six years in prison.

"The convict has a wife and children. This fact eased his sentencing," judge Makassau, a member of the panel of judges, told the Ferry trial as reported by the Antara state news agency.

On June 24, 2008, a rally against the government policy of rising fuel prices had become heated as protesters burned a government car in front of Atmajaya University, Jakarta. They also tore down the gates of the House of Representatives building.

However, at that time, Ferry was attending a farmer's union meeting in China.

Prior to the June protest, he had been behind several other protests. According to prosecutors, on May 21, 2008, Ferry had led a group to stage a protest against the fuel price hike.

The defendant had allegedly told protesters that if police formed a barricade, they had to break through it, prosecutors said.

The following day, Ferry had told other activists via his cell phone that they had to stop protesting in front of the presidential palace and shift their activities to campuses.

Previously, Ferry had provoked youths, activists and students during an event held at the Indonesian Family Planning Association (PKBI) building, the prosecutor said.

The meeting had been attended by KBI chairman Rizal Ramli and many other scholars, students and activists. The theme of that event was "Determining a New Way for Indonesia". Around 500 people were present.

Rizal, who is also a presidential candidate and a former coordinating minister for the economy, was named a suspect in the case.

The KBI and critics said the charges against Ferry and Rizal, which have built up ahead of the elections, were politically motivated.

However, the National Police headquarters and the presidential office dismissed the criticism. They insisted that the move to name them suspects was legal rather than political. (dis)

NGOs challenge new Supreme Court Law

Jakarta Post - April 9, 2009

Jakarta – On Wednesday, several NGOs filed a request for the Constitutional Court to review the 2009 Supreme Court law that extends the retirement age of justices to 70 years from 65 years. The petitioners argued the passing of the law was "unconstitutional".

"If passing the law was unconstitutional then the law should not be implemented," Taufiq Basari, a lawyer for the NGOs, told reporters at the Constitutional Court.

The legal team consists of representatives from the Jakarta Legal Aid Foundation, the Indonesian Judiciary Supervisory Community (MaPPI), Indonesia Corruption Watch (ICW) and the Center for Anti-Corruption Studies (PuKAT).

According to ICW's Febri Diansyah, the deliberations of the Supreme Court Law at the House of Representatives were apparently conducted in a hurry and were not transparent.

He added the number of lawmakers who attended a plenary meeting to pass the law was far less than required. "Physically there were only between 90 and 96 people out of 275 House members," Febri said.

Labour/migrant workers

East Java faces more job cuts, proper severance pay urged

Jakarta Post - April 15, 2009

Agnes S Jayakarna, Surabaya – Workers in East Java acknowledge that, due to the global economic crisis, dismissals are unavoidable but have demanded companies pay fair and proper compensation.

About 400 employees of paint producer PT Avia Aviant went on strike on Monday, protesting the dismissal of 59 of their co- workers.

"The strike is our expression of solidarity to our friends. We want the company to reemploy the workers," strike coordinator Yudhi Setiawan said, as quoted by Antara.

He added that the dismissal was never discussed with the workers union. Yudhi said the dismissed workers were given only one months salary for their working period, instead of two times the monthly salary required by law.

The workers blocked the entrance gate of the company, located in the Buduran area of Sidoarjo regency during the strike, preventing rucks from loading and unloading their goods.

Meanwhile, about one hundred employees of UD Terang Suara, PT Inkatama and CV Harita Surabaya staged a rally in front of the Surabaya Legislative building on Monday, demanding the companies give severance payment according to the Manpower Law.

The workers also urged the council and the Surabaya Manpower Office to mediate their disputes with their employers.

Chairman of the Workers Alliance Congress Syahrial Romadhon said that many employers were being unfair to dismissed workers by paying reduced severance packages.

"Most of the layoffs violate the Manpower Law. Many companies ignored the workers rights by paying them less than they should," Syahrial said.

The workers union recorded that 14,090 workers from 90 companies in 17 cities and regencies across the province have been laid off this year, as of March. Nearly 1,200 of them were from Surabaya. "Most of them were dismissed improperly. Companies blame the global downturn as the cause of their downfall," Syahrial added.

The redundant employees mostly worked in the garment, furniture, footwear and electronic utility sectors in the Surabaya, Sidoarjo, Pasuruan and Malang regencies.

The union also recorded that most of the suspended workers did not get proper compensation. Some companies paid only Rp 200,000 (about US$18) times the working period in compensation. Meanwhile, Chairman of the East Java chapter of the Indonesian Employers' Association (Apindo) Alim Markus said that the global financial crisis was influencing trade in the province.

"But I have called all companies to consider dismissal their last choice. I encourage them to find the best way-out first before, if it is needed, taking layoff process," Alim said.

Freeport sues workers for refusing to accept layoffs

Jakarta Post - April 15, 2009

Alfian, Jakarta – PT Freeport Indonesia, a local unit of US giant gold and copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, has filed lawsuits against five workers who refused to be laid off.

Freeport's lawyer Kemalsjah Siregar said on Tuesday the company needed a court verdict to settle the dispute, because earlier mediation efforts had failed to find a solution.

"The five workers reject the company decision, because they do not agree with the amount of the severance pay. We think that we have offered them (sufficient severance pay) as stipulated by the law," Kemalsjah said after a hearing at South Jakarta's industrial relations court.

Earlier this year, Freeport decided to lay off 67 of its workers, as part of the company's cost-efficiency measures in response to the global economic downturn. In its lawsuit, Freeport, which is operating in Mimika regency, Papua, mentioned that the company had taken several mitigating measures, but that some layoffs were unavoidable.

Leader of the Papua Workers Union, Yohanis Samual Nussy, had condemned the firings on the grounds of the global economic downturn as being unfair, saying Freeport and its contracting companies could economize on many other things.

He argued that higher level workers, who had thus far benefited from company facilities, such as cars and housing, should no longer get these perks, as they already received big salaries and other benefits.

Halim Sandere, one of the five Freeport's workers contesting the layoffs, said Tuesday he had rejected the company's decision because the severance pay was too low.

"Freeport treated us unfairly; We did no wrong but the company fired us without prior notification. The company also has no permit (for the layoffs) from the Manpower and Transmigration Ministry," Halim said, but refused to disclose the amount of money in question.

He said he saw no reason for Freeport to lay off its workers. "We do not see Freeport in trouble now," he said. The lawyer for the workers, Bibit Gunawan, said his clients expected the court to investigate Freeport's decision. "The court must evaluate whether this layoff is legal," he said.

Tuesday's hearing was the first hearing to try to settle the dispute. Freeport submitted the file on March 19 and the court must rule on its verdict within 50 days. Dissatisfied parties can appeal to the Supreme Court.

Freeport expects to produce 1.3 billion pounds of copper and 2.1 million ounces of gold this year.

Thousands of Indonesian workers on hold for overseas jobs

Jakarta Post - April 13, 2009

Mustaqim Adamrah, Jakarta – Thousands of prospective Indonesian migrant workers are on hold as destination countries have to fix new labour quotas given global downturn Chairman of the National Board for the Placement and Protection of Indonesia Migrant Workers (BNP2TKI), Mohammad Jumhur Hidayat, told The Jakarta Post that the global economic crisis was affecting workers who were supposed to start contracts overseas this year in construction, high-tech and capital-intensive industries.

He said countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia had not yet announced their quotas because their governments were focusing first on their own citizens who had been laid off because of the crisis.

"Those governments are also figuring out how to help our workers, who still have work permits but whose contracts are terminated due to the crisis, by channeling them to sectors less affected by the crisis, as required under bilateral agreements," he said.

At present there are 4.3 million Indonesian workers in 41 countries around the globe, according to the BNP2TKI data.

Jumhur urged the destination countries to facilitate the laid-off workers to find other jobs before resorting to sending them home. He said the South Korean government was diverting around 300 laid-off Indonesian workers, all in the manufacturing sector, to other fields such as agriculture, plantations, fisheries and others.

According to Jumhur, the total number of Indonesian workers in South Korea is around 30,000, most of them in the manufacturing sector.

He said 1,200 Indonesian workers went to South Korea in 2006, under the 8,000 quota, and 4,300 in 2007 under the 8,500 quota. Last year Indonesia sent 11,885 workers to South Korea, well over the 9,000 quota.

"During informal talks with the South Korean government, we were informed South Korea would set the quota at 5,000 this year," he said. The quota is set every December. Jumhur said 100,000 Indonesian manufacturing workers in Malaysia may lose their jobs if manufacturing output contracts 30 percent.

"Some dismissed Indonesian workers in Malaysia are now being diverted to other sectors, including plantations" he said, adding that 300,000 Indonesian workers out of of a total of 2.5 million in Malaysia, work in the manufacturing sector.

Jumhur said earlier that Malaysian Industries had terminated the contracts of some 10,000 Indonesian workers early this year.

Concerning Indonesian workers in Taiwan, Jumhur said about 5,000 to 6,000 workers in manufacturing had been affected, out of 120,000 Indonesian workers in Taiwan.

"In Dubai, United Arab Emirates [UAE], more than 1,000 Indonesian construction workers have lost their jobs and have to return home immediately, as investors, mostly from the United States and Europe, have stopped massive projects, abandoning half- constructed buildings since the crisis began hitting their home countries," he said, adding that there are 5,000 Indonesian workers in the UAE construction sector, out of 60,000 in total.

More than 10,000 Indonesian workers, 7,000 of whom worked in Malaysia, have returned home since last December, he said.

"The number of Indonesian workers returning home may reach 200,000 if the crisis remains severe and forces manufacturing output to drop a further 40 percent to 50 percent."

Women & gender

Voters want more female reps

Jakarta Post - April 8, 2009

Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – Underrepresented for decades, women candidates received a major boost in their struggle for legislative seats in Thursday's polls, a survey revealed on Tuesday.

The survey, conducted by Indo Barometer in early March, involving 1,200 respondents in 33 provinces, revealed that 84.5 percent of voters saw women and men as equal in politics. When asked if they supported female candidates, 81.6 percent said yes.

Using multistage sampling, the survey stated a margin of error of 3 percent. "But most respondents didn't agree with women candidates receiving special treatment," Indo Barometer executive director Muhammad Qodari said on Tuesday.

Qodari referred to special treatment in the light of a recently annulled stipulation in the election law that had required parties to allocate at least 30 percent of their legislative seats to women.

University of Indonesia political expert Ani Soetjipto said the results of the survey had given women's rights defenders new hope in their quest to improve women's representation in government.

However, Ani said, the biggest challenges women candidates face are from their political parties, not from the general public.

"Resistance against women taking positions in legislative bodies comes from political parties, because many of them have no internal policies to support women legislators," Ani said.

Earlier, the coordinator of the Civil Society Alliance for the Revision of Political Laws, Yuda Irlang, predicted that only a few women candidates would secure seats in the House in the incoming polls.

"I think it will be a miracle if more than 68 women legislators gain seats as in previous elections," Yuda told a recent discussion sponsored by the Women's Empowerment Movement Foundation and the Association of Independent Journalists in Jakarta.

Most women candidates had neither experience in promoting themselves nor adequate budgets to organize campaigns, Yuda said. "Women candidates, just like men, have been forced by their constituents to provide money to them," Yuda said, adding that male candidates usually had more access to funds than their female rivals.

The new election mechanism would hamper women candidates from winning seats – even if they secure enough votes, she said. "Many dedicated and intellectual women candidates come from small parties which will find it difficult to meet the 2.5 percent parliamentary minimum," Yuda said. Only parties that fulfil the threshold will be able to gain house seats.

The Constitutional Court ruling which introduced the open election system (whereby candidates with the most votes win seats), has exacerbated the situation because the onus has been shifted onto individual candidates to garner support for their election campaigns. "But women candidates will still have opportunities to win seats in provincial or regional legislative councils," she said.

Women candidates will also have to deal with women voters. "We discovered this trend in a simulation, where women were more likely to pick men over women for their representatives," Yuda said. "This is because many people don't realise the important role women legislators can play." Jurnal Perempuan Program Manager Aquino W Hayunta said

Indonesia could emulate countries like Sweden and Rwanda, which had found that electing more women in parliament served them better than governments in other countries. (naf)

Corruption & graft

Suspected plot may 'weaken' graft court

Jakarta Post - April 13, 2009

Irawaty Wardany, Jakarta – A plan may be in place to weaken the Corruption Court (KPK) by replacing its six career judges by judges from the Supreme Court, antigraft groups said Sunday.

Indonesia Corruption Watch (ICW) and the Center for Anti- Corruption Studies (PukaT) said the career judges to replace the six have questionable records, and that their assignments were legally flawed.

The Supreme Court last month "promoted" six Corruption Court judges – Gusrizal to head the Bogor District Court, Kresna Menon to lead the Bandung District Court, Sutiono to head the Sumedang District Court, and Moefri to head the Sampit District as well Teguh Haryanto and Martini Mardja as deputy heads of the Tulungagung District Court and the Kayu Agung District Courts, respectively. The six were among nine judges replaced from the graft court.

The nine new judges are Tjokorda Rai Suamba, Reno Listowo, FX JIwo Santoso, Herdi Agusten, Syarifuddin Umar, Jupriyadi, Subachran, Nani Indrawati and Panusunan Harahap.

"Six of nine new judges – Panusunan Harahap, Reno Listowo, Syarifuddin Umar, Subachran, Jupriyadi and Jiwo Santoso – had acquitted corruption defendants and we never know whether they (the defendants) really deserved acquittals, or it was because the judges failed to understand these corruption cases which probably were related to poor indictments by prosecutors, or this was related to the judicial mafia," ICW legal researcher Febri Diansyah told a news conference.

ICW legal division coordinator Emerson Yuntho questioned whether the judges were "promoted" or removed from the graft court. "The replacements appeared to be hastily made and the procedures violated the (2002) law on the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK)," Emerson said.

He said the Supreme Court must publicly announce names for assignment as Corruption Court judges. "To date we never see or hear any such announcements in print or electronic media," he said, or such appointments are unconstitutional.

The ICW and PukaT demanded that the Supreme Court withdraw its March 18 decision to appoint the new judges for the graft court, or they would report it to the Judicial Commission for such violations. "There is something fishy here and we suspect this is an attempt to weaken the Corruption Court," Emerson said.

Currently the Corruption Court has eight career judges and nine ad hoc (non-career) judges. The Corruption Court has won praise from antigraft groups, activists and the general public. Since 2003, the Corruption Court has never acquitted any suspect presented by KPK prosecutors.

Another attempt to weaken or eliminate the graft court was also apparent when the House of Representatives delayed the deliberation of a new bill on the corruption court. Such a bill must be passed into law by December this year, or the court would be dissolved, according to a Constitutional Court ruling.

ICW claims six new anti-corruption judges are soft on graft

Jakarta Globe - April 12, 2009

Heru Andriyanto – Indonesia Corruption Watch on Sunday questioned the credibility of judges recently assigned to the Anti-Corruption Court, saying that most of them have already acquitted dozens of graft defendants.

The Supreme Court last month replaced nine antigraft court judges, but ICW warned that six of the incoming judges had acquitted at least 49 defendants in graft cases when they worked in various district courts.

"If they are officially installed, we are worried that the six judges will continue to acquit graft defendants in the Anti- Corruption Court," said Emerson Yuntho, the ICW's coordinator for legal affairs.

In a decree dated March 18, Supreme Court Chief Justice Harifin Tumpa appointed nine new antigraft judges: Tjokorda Rai Suamba, Reno Listowo, Jiwo Santoso, Herdi Agusten, Syarifuddin Umar, Jupriyadi, Subachran, Nani Indrawati and Panusunan Harahap.

"The Supreme Court said the new judges had passed training for the Anti-Corruption Court and that they were the best among other judges who took part in the selection process," ICW researcher Febri Diansyah said.

However, information provided by Febri showed that six of the nine newly appointed judges released 49 graft defendants between August 2005 and March 2009.

According to the data, Syarifuddin acquitted more defendants than five of the other judges. Over the past 15 months, he acquitted 36 defendants facing graft charges at the Makassar District Court in South Sulawesi Province.

The defendants released by a panel of judges, of which Syarifuddin was a member, included 28 former councilors in Luwu district, Febri said.

ICW also criticized the process of appointing antigraft judges as lacking transparency, thus violating the 2002 laws on the establishment of the Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK, and the Anti-Corruption Court.

"The selection process was held in a closed-door meeting and the number of candidates was limited to just 13. Their names were proposed by the chairman of the Central Jakarta District Court," the group said in a statement.

"The ICW could not find any official publication from the chief justice regarding the selection, in either the print or electronic media, as required by law," it said.

Supreme Court spokesman Djoko Sarwoko did not respond to a call requesting his comments on ICW's remarks.

Indonesia seen as most corrupt in Asia - Survey

Agence France Presse - April 8, 2009

Singapore – Indonesia and Thailand are perceived as Asia's most corrupt economies, with last year's cellar-dweller the Philippines making a marked improvement, an annual survey of foreign business executives showed Wednesday.

Singapore and Hong Kong retained their top two rankings as the region's least corrupt economies, although there are concerns about private-sector fraud, according to the survey by the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, or PERC.

Despite the negative perception of Indonesia, PERC noted "there has been a real headway in fighting the problem" under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is seeking re-election in presidential polls in July.

"To be sure, the absolute scores show corruption in the public and private sectors is still very high," PERC said.

"But our latest survey shows that residents in Indonesia are more favorably impressed with the determined way the KPK (anti- corruption commission) has been fighting corruption than any of the other countries graded poorly for corruption."

It said the major question its respondents are asking in Indonesia is whether the anti-corruption efforts can be sustained.

The March results are based on more than 1,700 responses from 14 Asian economies plus Australia and the United States, which were included for comparison purposes, PERC said.

In a grading system with zero as the best possible score and 10 the worst, Indonesia got 8.32.

Thailand was seen as the second most corrupt country with a grade of 7.63, but PERC said foreign investors were more concerned about political stability.

"Very few expatriate executives find that corruption makes the country a less attractive place to live and do business," it said.

Cambodia was seen as the third most corrupt country with a score of 7.25, followed by India with 7.21 and Vietnam with 7.11.

A grade greater than 7.0 indicates that a "serious" corruption problem exists, PERC said.

Perceived as Asia's most corrupt country in the 2008 survey, the Philippines had a score of 7.0 to rank sixth from the bottom this year.

It was followed by Malaysia with 6.70, Taiwan with 6.47, China with 6.16, Macau with 5.84, South Korea with 4.64 and Japan with 3.99.

A score between 4.0 and 7.0 indicates a "moderate" level of corruption, the Hong Kong-based consultancy said.

The Philippine customs and tax agencies, police and politicians have the meanest reputation for corruption in the country, the consultancy said.

But while "there is very little confidence in the government's seriousness about fighting the problem," PERC also said that "the actual level of corruption is not as bad as it is often portrayed."

Singapore again topped the survey as Asia's least corrupt country with a score of 1.07, followed by Hong Kong with 1.89.

Australia scored 2.40 to be in third place followed by the United States with 2.89.

On regional financial centres Singapore and Hong Kong, PERC said "it is possible that the pressures of the recession will result in an increase in corruption in the private sector this year."

Elections/political parties

It's Megawati versus SBY, part two

Jakarta Post - April 15, 2009

Dicky Christanto, Jakarta – Good news could be on the horizon for those fed up with the lengthy political process, with the search for coalitions among the country's power brokers likely to lead to a one-round presidential election.

Political experts say the ongoing maneuvering by party leaders will result in a divide between those supporting the incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his arch rival Megawati Soekarnoputri.

"I can predict this situation based on the trend happening right now, where parties like Gerindra and Hanura are moving closer to the PDI-P, while Islamic parties like the PKS [Prosperous Justice Party], the PKB [National Awakening Party] and the PPP [United Development Party] are looking more comfortable with the Democratic Party," University of Indonesia political researcher Ani Sucipto said Tuesday.

Yudhoyono, of the Democratic Party, beat Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) leader Megawati, then the incumbent, in the 2004 polls by a landslide.

On Tuesday, Yudhoyono met with Golkar Party leader Jusuf Kalla – his Vice President – in a move seen as Golkar's about-face, given the imminent election victory of the Democratic Party at the expense of Golkar. However, Ani said Golkar's decision to snuggle up to the Democratic Party for another five years would not change the political map.

"No matter which side Golkar chooses to partner with, it's likely the presidential election will only go to one round, as it will be hard for other parties to nominate any alternatives," she said.

As of Tuesday, the Democratic Party leads the interim vote count with 20.24 percent of votes, followed by Golkar with 15.1 percent and the PDI-P with 14.5 percent.

A coalition comprising the Democratic Party, Golkar and a number of Islamic parties will earn Yudhoyono strong political support both in the administration and in parliament – an advantage he will need to ensure an effective government.

Australian researcher Kevin Evans shared Ani's views, saying there would be no alternative candidates in the upcoming presidential election.

Not even a shared ideology among Islamic parties would encourage them to form a political bloc to challenge Yudhoyono and Megawati, he said. "[The Islamic bloc] would rather be a discourse of hope than a serious option," Evans said Tuesday on the sidelines of a discussion.

He also warned SBY would be headed for deep trouble if he chose a running mate other than Kalla. "There are several potential names, such as Akbar Tanjung from Golkar, Hidayat Nur Wahid of the PKS and Soetrisno Bachir of the PAN [National Mandate Party], but none of them meets the right criteria for SBY," he added.

Over at the PDI-P, senior executive Tjahjo Kumolo admitted the coalition with Gerindra and Hanura remained fragile.

"The coalition is still open to substantial changes. We're still communicating ideas with those two new parties. Besides, we're waiting for Golkar to make up its mind on which side it wants to ally with in the presidential election," Tjahjo said.

Democratic Party executive Ruhut Sitompul said the party had secured allegiance from the PKB and the Crescent Star Party (PBB). "We are still waiting for other parties such as the PAN, the PKS and Golkar to confirm their commitment," Ruhut added.

Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES) researcher Fajar Nursahid also predicted the post-legislative election political mapping would result in a two-horse race between Yudhoyono and Megawati in the presidential election.

He said Golkar would eventually join Yudhoyono, despite the internal rift tearing at the former New Order's political machine. "Golkar has long been a supporter of the incumbent government and is very likely to join SBY's Democratic Party in the presidential elections," Fajar said.

An exit poll conducted by LP3ES on April 9 showed Yudhoyono remained the most popular presidential candidate, regardless of the shoddy economic situation. (naf)

Voters put Islamist parties in their place

Jakarta Post - April 15, 2009

Endy M. Bayuni, Jakarta – Voters have spoken and it's clear that they want nationalist-secular political parties to control the direction this country, leaving Islamic parties, a permanent fixture in Indonesian politics, to once again play second fiddle.

The results of quick counts of the April 9 parliamentary elections by four independent survey organizations show that four Islamist parties will be represented in the national legislature: The Justice Prosperity Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the United Development Party (PPP).

According to these quick counts, each of these parties secured between five and eight percent of the total national vote which, if lumped together, accounts for less than 25 percent. This is within the historical range of the share of votes of Islamist parties in all four democratic Indonesian elections (held in 1955, 1999 and 2004).

The message that voters sent to these Islamist parties is the same as it was in the previous elections.

The majority of Indonesians, including most of its huge Muslim population, trust the secular-nationalist parties to run this country more than those parties that exploit religious symbols.

These four are mid-size parties that will be ranked from fourth to seventh largest in the House of Re-presentatives. In contrast, the Democratic Party (PD) of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono polled more than 20 percent and Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) each received around 14 percent, going by the results of the quick counts.

The combined share of votes for Islamic parties declined this year if we remove the PAN and the PKB from the group. The PAN has shed its Islamic image under Chairman Sutrisno Bachir, though it has not announced this openly, knowing that it would be detrimental to its chances of election. The PKB is the party of the Nahdlatul Ulama, the country's largest Islamic organization and has no ambition to turn Indonesia into an Islamic state.

This leaves the PKS and the PPP as the only parties in the national parliament with a clear Islamic agenda that includes the creation of an Islamic state/civil society at some stage in the future and the introduction of some form of sharia (Islamic law).

The PKS, the larger of the two, held its ground and may even have slightly increased its share of the national vote within the 7-8 percent range, though fell well short of its stated target of 15 percent. Considering its impressive rise to just above 7 percent in 2004, up from less than 2 percent in 1999, this year must count as a flop.

Following its performance in 2004, the PKS triggered a debate about its "phenomenal rise," with predictions and warnings that this wass the party to watch in 2009. This did not materialize. The PKS, as far as voters are concerned, is just another Islamic party.

Instead we saw the phenomenal rise of the PD this year, something that no one had predicted. The rise of PD, from 7 percent to more than 20 percent this year, has come at the expense not only of the other nationalist parties including Golkar and the PDI-P, but also Islamic parties including the PKS.

Having been part of Yudhoyono's coalition government and of national and local legislatures, the performance and track record of the PKS came under a lot of public scrutiny and people voted on that basis rather than relying on the party's promises and its anti-corruption slogans, as it did in 2004. The fact that the PKS managed to slightly increase its votes this year tells you what voters really think of the party.

A last minute switch in strategy by the PKS to try to pass as a nationalist party during the election campaign in order to broaden its appeal beyond its Muslim constituency failed. The PKS is and will always be seen by voters as an Islamic party.

In contrast, the PPP makes no bone about its Islamic identity and campaigned hard on this platform, exploiting religious symbols and slogans to gain votes. Voters were still not impressed and people who had voted for the PPP in the past abandoned it in 2009.

For all of its shortcomings, the general election is still the best gauge of the popularity of Islamic parties and their agenda, including the creation of an Islamic state and the introduction of sharia. The majority of Indonesian voters clearly still believe in the pluralistic nature of the nation.

The Islamic parties within the current coalition government managed to push some of their agenda over the last five years, including the introduction of some form of sharia in more than 40 regencies across the nation. Judging by the reaction of voters, this strategy backfired.

The result of this parliamentary vote should send a strong signal to the new House of Representatives and the new administration that the majority of Indonesians, including most Muslims, do not support an Islamic political agenda. The new government should not hesitate to roll back all the sharia bylaws which are discriminatory to non-Muslims and clearly against the constitution.

They must also repeal the Draconian anti-pornography law, pushed by Islamist parties last year, which many viewed as a restriction of artistic expressions, including the way people dress. Islamist parties may be down but they are not out.

There will always be part of the Muslim population in this country who will vote for them in every election. Their number is never large, but is significant enough to allow such parties representation in the national parliament. What this means is that Islam will always be a political commodity that can get positions in this country, but it has its limitations, as the PKS is now finding.

At best, these Islamist parties can influence the government as junior partners in a coalition government. But don't expect them to grow – history is against them.

Prominent politicians shown door... by celebrities

Jakarta Post - April 14, 2009

Jakarta – Some of Indonesia's prominent politicians are likely to lose their seats at the House of Representatives, following quick count results showing they did not win enough votes to win seats in their areas.

Unexpectedly, incumbent House Speaker Agung Laksono of the Golkar Party is one of the losers.

A quick count by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) revealed that Agung's party – in his electoral district of Jakarta I, covering East Jakarta – only received 5,328 votes as of 11 p.m. Monday, or 5.99 percent of the votes. To secure a House seat in his area, a party would need at least 16.6 percent of votes cast.

"Through the quick count we can see famous and prominent politicians are not even able to get in [into the House]," LSI analyst Burhanuddin Muhtadi told The Jakarta Post on Monday.

"Given this, the Golkar Party will probably not win any House seats from the Jakarta I electoral district," he added.

According to the LSI, low voter turnout and new election mechanisms have helped lead to less votes for some prominent politicians.

Other prominent figures who may be thrown out of the House include Priyo Budi Santoso, the Golkar faction chairman. Golkar only earned 8.64 percent of votes in his electoral district in East Java I, covering Surabaya and Sidoarjo, where winning a House seat requires at least 12.5 percent of votes.

Faced with such trends, Burhanuddin predicted that many new faces could win House seats and therefore would be expected to contribute to a new House style.

"We have found that several celebrities like Rieke Dyah Pitaloka from the PDI-P [the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle] and Nurul Arifin of Golkar are likely to secure seats since they both won significant numbers of votes," he said.

"Suprisingly, Rieke managed to defeat Taufik Kiemas in winning votes in West Java," he added, referring to the husband of former president and PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Despite their lack of political experience, celebrities are more popular with voters than politicians, Burhanuddin said. "These politicians were not known in their own electoral districts, although they may be famous in Jakarta and the media," he added.

However, Burhanuddin said, it would be a huge loss for the country as some of the losing politicians were smart and capable people. "They also have experience in making laws," he added.

To avoid such a loss of prominent experienced politicians in the future, Burhanuddin suggested that politicians should build more solid relationship with their constituents in their respective electoral districts.

"In previous elections, people voted for political parties, which then appointed their members to sit in the House," he said. "But today, they voted for their representatives directly." (naf)

Politicians likely to be ousted from House of Representatives

Golkar Party: Agung Laksono, Priyo Budi Santoso, Ferry Mursyidan Baldan, Heppy Bona Zulkarnaen
National Mandate Party (PAN): Abdillah Toha
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS): Mahfud Siddiq
United Development Party (PPP): Suryadharma Ali
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P): Heri Ahmadi
Peace Prosperous Party (PDS): Royandi Hutasoit

Mounting debts and poll failure bode ill for losing candidates

Jakarta Post - April 14, 2009

Slamet Susanto, Agus Maryono and Suherdjoko, Yogyakarta/Purwokerto/Semarang – Newspaper vendor Samadiono, 44, was determined to run as a legislative candidate in the April 9 elections. He borrowed money from his relatives to support his campaign. However, his dream to become a legislator faded, after an interim vote count showed he did not get enough votes.

"For initial funds, I borrowed gold jewelry from a relative, worth Rp 10 million [US$900]. I also borrowed from friends and some of them offered me loans," he said.

Samadiono, running on the National Awakening Party's (PKB) ticket in Bantul, Yogyakarta, said he would make good on all that he owed. "I will repay my debts, albeit in small installments," he said.

The dream of Siti Ianatush, 38, of becoming the wife of a legislator were dashed, despite spending a lot of money to pay for the campaign of her husband Johar Taukhid, 39, who also ran for the PKB in Bantul. "Our family has spent a lot of money," she said, adding the amount totaled hundreds of millions of rupiah.

Some of the 2,500 legislative candidates in Yogyakarta are expected to suffer from mental illness due to the huge debts they have incurred and the fact they lost out in the polls.

To prepare for the situation, Grhasia Mental Hospital in Yogyakarta has prepared 200 beds made up of three classes.

Hospital director Rohana Dwi Astuti predicted it would take a month for candidates who were heavily in debt and susceptible to stress to suffer from mental distress.

A candidate in Banyumas, Badrudin, 40, who appeared dejected, was accompanied by three members of his campaign team while sipping coffee.

"Many of my supporters and constituents have shifted to other candidates because of vote buying. What else can I do? Frankly, I'm very disappointed, but perhaps this is the political risk I have to take," Badrudin said at home on Monday.

He added he had lobbied for support for the past year and had spent a lot campaigning. "It could amount to more than Rp 250 million," he said.

On Monday, dozens of residents of Kaligawe subdistrict, Gayamsari district in Semarang, demanded the Democratic Party's local campaign team make good on its promise to pay them for votes.

They arrived at the home of Eni, a campaign team member for Democratic Party candidates Yoyok Sukawi and Agung Bhawono, demanding cash of between Rp 15,000 and Rp 25,000 and packages of basic necessities, after voting for the two candidates.

Apparently, only some of the residents had received the handouts, leaving the others to demand them from Eni, as she was the one who had registered them.

Election results legally challenged

Jakarta Post - April 15, 2009

ID Nugroho, Jakarta – Leaders of political parties, the national rights body and a number of civil society groups have taken legal action to challenge the April 9 elections' results.

All groups said the alleged fraud and the hubbub surrounding the voter lists had prevented many people from voting and raised questions about the elections' legitimacy.

The Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation (YLBHI), the Indonesian Legal Aid Association (PBHI) and the Indonesian Women's Association for Justice (LBH APIK) filed Tuesday a civil lawsuit against the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the government, for preventing citizens from voting in the recent elections.

"The KPU and the government failed to update the voter lists, either intentionally or due to negligence, resulting in many people not being registered. Both [the KPU and the government] have violated the elections law," YLBHI chairman Patra M. Zen said.

Meanwhile, the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) plans to put together an investigation team to examine why so many voters were not registered on the voter lists in the April elections.

"We just want to make sure this election was run fairly, because the fraud allegation raises questions about the legitimacy of the new government," the chairman of the commission, Ifdal Kasim, said Tuesday.

"We can understand if the flaws in the voter lists were a result of negligence. However, if these errors were intentional, further investigations and trials will be necessary," Ifdal said.

During the recent polls, the rights Commission monitored several regions, including areas vulnerable to conflict such as Papua, Poso, Ambon and Aceh, as well as border areas such as Atambua in West Nusa Tenggara and Tawau in the province of Kalimantan.

The survey conducted by the Rights commission focused on marginal groups such as internally displaced people, migrant workers, prisoners and hospitalized mentally ill patients.

The survey indicated the majority of these people had remained unregistered or had not been allowed to vote, even though their names were on the list.

The KPU registered 171 million voters for the recent legislative elections, while activists claimed more than 10 million voters were turned away from polling stations nationwide because their names were not on the lists.

Meanwhile, leaders from 13 political parties contesting the elections agreed Tuesday they would collaborate to gather evidence and then file a legal action against the election fraud they believed took place.

"We will leave it up to the law, because we still believe in the justice system," the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) chairman Wiranto said, who represents the 13 party leaders.

The politicians also issued a joint statement slamming the recent elections as "the worst elections" compared with the 1999 and 2004 elections, with more irregulaties occurring than in the two previous polls.

The joint statement was issued at former president Megawati Soekarnoputri's house on Jl. Teuku Umar, Central Jakarta. Prominent figures also attending the meeting included Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), National Mandate Party (PAN) member Toto Daryanto, chairman of the United Development Party (PPP) Rusdi Hanafi, Crescent Star Party (PBB) member Yusril Ihza Mahendra and Prosperous Peace Party (PDS) member Ferry B. Siregar.

Former president Abdurahman Wahid and independent presidential candidate Rizal Ramli also attended the meeting.

"Flawed voter lists have caused many Indonesians to lose their right to vote and it is against the 1945 Constitution," said Wiranto. (naf)

No change in voter registration despite recent brouhaha

Jakarta Post - April 14, 2009

Adianto P. Simamora and Erwida Maulida, Jakarta – Regardless of public gripes over flawed voter lists in the recent legislative elections the national polls body will maintain the existing registration method, which will require eligible voters to check if their names are registered for the July 8 presidential election.

The General Elections Commission (KPU) has extended the enrolment period to May 10 in a bid to encourage more voters to participate in the presidential election.

"It is the people who must take an active role to check their names on temporary voter lists because local poll committee members are still busy tabulating the votes for legislative elections," KPU member Endang Sulastri said Monday. She said that public's responsibility was outlined in the 2008 election law.

The voter list for the presidential election should have been made public on April 7, according to the KPU's original schedule. The polls body, however, failed to meet the deadline due to widespread protest against the inaccuracy of voter lists.

Political parties that may lose the elections suspect the voter list fraud benefits a certain party.

Endang said the polls body would use the final list of voters for the legislative elections as the basis of the voter list for the presidential election.

The KPU registered over 171 million voters for Thursday's legislative elections. Under a government regulation in lieu of law, more than 200,000 voters had been added to the final list, following protests against their accuracy.

But the revised list continued to be challenge, with a group of activists claiming the number of people deprived of their voting rights could reach 10 million nationwide. Many voters, on the contrary, were registered twice and dead voters remained on the list.

Endang blamed the flawed statistical data on the government. "As long as the government has not settled the NIK problems don't expect the voter lists to be 100 percent accurate," Endang said, referring to the citizens identity number.

"Our difficulty is we can't update the voter list every time. Some dead people will be in the final voter list for the presidential election."

The government said that it was ready to help the polls body improve troubled voter lists for the upcoming presidential race.

Home Affairs Minister Mardiyanto said Monday that, based on election regulations, permanent voter lists in the legislative elections could serve as the basis for temporary voter list for the presidential election.

"The KPU has issued a circular saying that it has begun drafting permanent voter list for the presidential and vice presidential election."

"Learning from the implementation of legislative elections, which saw a number of eligible voters missing from the list, it is our [the government's] duty to help the KPU update the data."

Mardiyanto added that the government was ready to provide human resources to help the commission verify the voter list.

He added that regional administrations had been asked to help the KPU officials in the field.

A number of observers have suggested that the polls body allow voters to produce their identity cards on the day of the presidential election if they are not in the KPU's list.

Nahdlatul Ulama Chairman Hasyim Muzadi said an identity card was valid evidence of a person's eligibility to vote.

He said the simple method would prevent eligible voters from losing their political rights. "An ID card is better than the voter list which was either inaccurate or flawed," he said, as quoted by Antara.

Only political parties or a coalition of parties that secure 20 percent of the House of Representatives seats or 25 percent of the popular vote will be eligible to nominate a presidential candidate.

A number of surveys have found the incumbent, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is the most popular candidate.

A president can serve for a maximum of two five-year terms according to the Constitution.

Q+A: Indonesia's parliamentary elections and the PKS

Reuters - April 13, 2009

Jakarta – Indonesia's president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, has said his Democrat Party, which won a fifth of the vote in parliamentary elections last week, may form a coalition with the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Other coalition members may include the Golkar Party, like PKS a partner in Yudhoyono's current government. Golkar won about 14-15 percent of the vote. The PKS won about 8 percent, according to quick counts and early official results, increasing its share slightly from 7.3 percent in 2004. Here are some questions and answers about the PKS.

What's the background of the PKS

The party was inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood and its founder, Hassan al-Banna. It started off as the Justice Party (PK), founded in 1998 as part of Indonesia's student movement, and became the Prosperous Justice Party in 2002.

How has it grown so fast?

The party uses study circles, where cadres recruit members to learn about the party and Islamic principles – a system critics liken to the cell structure of communism. The party faithful tend to be young, urban Muslims who use modern technology such as telephone text messages and sales techniques to spread the word.

Thousands of PKS volunteers go door-to-door during election campaigns to speak directly to voters, considered an unusual approach in a country where party leaders typically deliver speeches at rallies.

While it mustered about 8 percent of the vote this time, it fell far short of its target of 20 percent as some supporters switched to the Democrat Party. A blacklist of polygamous candidates published by a feminist group named several PKS politicians, and may have been another factor in the election result.

A few months ago the party also felt a backlash after it ran a controversial advertising campaign in which it described former president Suharto as a national hero.

How has it managed to enter the mainstream?

It did well in elections in 2008 for governor in West Java and North Sumatra provinces, thanks to its focus on "clean, caring and professional" government, and its reputation for being tough on corruption. PKS officials have so far not been found guilty of graft in any of the numerous corruption cases involving Indonesia's politicians and officials.

The party has made an effort to broaden its appeal by, for example, including women without headscarves in its political advertisements and by recruiting non-Muslim candidates.

So why are some Indonesians nervous about it?

A recent report, backed by former President Abdurrahman Wahid, warned that PKS members were infiltrating and radicalising moderate mosques and other organisations in the predominantly Muslim country. Wahid considers the PKS a threat to Indonesia's tradition of religious and cultural tolerance. The party backed a controversial anti-pornography law last year which has outraged many Hindus in Bali and Christians in Papua and other parts of the country.

How could the PKS influence policy-making in a coalition?

There is some speculation Yudhoyono could pick a PKS politician as his vice presidential running mate ahead of the July 8 presidential elections.

The party hopes for five cabinet posts in a coalition and would seek to influence government policy in areas such as reform of the civil service and police.

It wants to renegotiate energy and mining contracts, remove the government's fuel subsidies, and increase the budget for the environment ministry to ensure protection for the country's natural resources.

It would also push for increased trade with the Middle East, and attract direct investment in the agricultural and energy sectors from countries such as Saudi Arabia. (Reporting by Sara Webb and Sunanda Creagh; Editing by Ed Davies and Jerry Norton)

Indonesia party eyes death for graft

Reuters - April 13, 2009

Sunanda Creagh, Jakarta – An Indonesian Islamist party seen as a likely partner in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's coalition said it wanted energy and mining contracts to be renegotiated and the death penalty imposed in the worst cases of corruption.

The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) has done well in some local elections because of its emphasis on clean governance, but religious minorities in the officially secular but predominantly Muslim country are nervous about the party's Islamist agenda and likely influence on policy-making.

Tifatul Sembiring, chairman of the PKS which won about 8 percent in parliamentary elections last week, said his party may join Yudhoyono's Democrat Party, which won a fifth of the vote, to form a coalition.

That coalition may also include the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN), two small Islamic parties, he told Reuters in an interview, as well as the Golkar Party, giving the bloc a majority of seats in parliament.

The PKS is eying as many as five cabinet posts in the next government, up from three in the current alliance, and would push for the renegotiation of key contracts in the resources sector which are unfavourable for Indonesia, Sembiring told Reuters in an interview.

These include a contract to sell liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China from the BP-led Tangguh project in Papua, eastern Indonesia, as well as contracts with mining giants Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold and Newmont Mining Corp of the United States, he said.

Tangguh will produce 7.6 million tonnes per year and has contracts with several companies including China National Offshore Oil Corp.

"Tangguh is not fair, in my view. It makes Indonesia not satisfied," he said. "We should review all of the contracts to make them fair. We don't reject foreign companies but we want a win-win solution."

The PKS, which like the Democrat Party takes a tough stance on corruption, would also push to give authorities such as the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) greater powers, Sembiring said, and may advocate the death penalty in corruption cases involving big sums, of more than 1 trillion rupiah (61 million pounds).

"It would be a lesson for the younger generations," he said, adding that stamping out corruption in the police would be a priority.

But reform of the bureaucracy, another policy it has in common with Yudhoyono's Democrat Party, would be hard to achieve as cutting jobs among the country's millions of civil servants could lead to unrest, he said.

The PKS, which is regarded by some Indonesians, particularly the religious minorities and women's groups, as a hardline Muslim party, has tried to broaden its appeal to non-Muslims in the past couple of years.

However, it has supported the introduction of sharia by-laws in some parts of the country and recently caused a stir when a PKS official tried to ban a traditional form of dance in West Java because he considered it too sexy.

Sembiring said his party supported sharia principles, rather than sharia law.

"I don't mean cutting off hands, I mean following your religious teachings. We don't want people to become atheists. We want people to have a religion. If you are a Muslim, you must obey your religion. If you are a Christian or Jewish or other, please obey your religious teaching too," he said.

"But you must have a belief, because people with a belief have a moral code. People who are atheists, I don't know how they have moral control." (Editing by Sara Webb)

Celebrities take center stage in legislative elections

Jakarta Globe - April 13, 2009

Putri Prameshwari & Antara – Several celebrities running in Thursday's legislative elections have garnered an impressive number of votes so far, with some leading seasoned politicians in the provisional tallies.

Facing a credibility crisis due to the corruption and sex scandals involving several members of the House of Representatives, some political parties contesting the legislative elections recruited celebrities to attract voters, but provisional tallies suggest that those vote-getters may soon unseat their senior counterparts.

According to the Web site of the General Elections Commission, or KPU, popular comedian Mandra, who ran for the Islam-based National Mandate Party, or PAN, was leading the tabulation in the East Jakarta electoral district on Sunday with 411 votes.

Mandra, who is best known for his role in the television drama "Si Doel Anak Sekolahan," is PAN's number one legislative candidate for the House, and was running against seasoned politician Agung Laksono of the Golkar Party, who is also the current House speaker.

In West Java Province, actress Rieke Dyah Pitaloka, a candidate for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, has outdone the head of the party's Advisory Board, Taufik Kiemas, who is also the husband of PDI-P chairwoman and presidential candidate Megawati Sukarnoputri, state-owned Antara news agency reported.

Rieke, who shot to fame playing the character Oneng on the wildly popular TV sitcom "Bajaj Bajuri," has so far received 427 votes, almost twice as many as Kiemas with 261.

Other actors leading the tallies in several West Java areas include Primus Yustisio in Subang, Majalengka and Sumedang, and Nurul Arifin in Karawang and Purwakarta, Antara reported.

Primus is a candidate from PAN who previously ran for district head in Subang, while Nurul is running for the Golkar Party. As of Saturday evening, Nurul, who has been actively involved in politics since 2004, had gained more than 16 percent of the votes.

Liputan6.com reported that actress Wanda Hamidah from PAN had reached 30 percent of the votes in South Jakarta.

Meanwhile, Marisa Haque Fawzi from the United Development Party, or PPP, Teuku Firmansyah from the National Awakening Party, or PKB, and Rachel Maryam from the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, are also sitting on top of their regions' vote counts.

Marisa's husband, Ahmad Zulfikar Fawzi, who goes by the stage name Ikang Fawzi, is currently leading the vote count for PAN in Banten Province with 171 votes.

Nathania Regina, whose claim to fame is being declared Indonesia's youngest legislative candidate by the Indonesian Museum of Records, or MURI, said that she had not yet checked the vote calculations.

"I'm not in Indonesia right now," she said in a text message. "I haven't been able to keep track of the vote count." At only 21 years of age, Nathania became the country's youngest legislative candidate, running for the PKB in Riau Islands Province.

There were 61 celebrities running in this year's legislative polls. If they were all to win election, they would make up 11 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives.

Internal rifts broaden at Golkar, PPP

Jakarta Post - April 13, 2009

Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – The slide in votes for the Golkar Party and the United Development Party (PPP) in Thursday's polls have exacerbated rifts within the parties.

Senior Golkar members have pointed the finger at party chairman Jusuf Kalla for failing to unite the party to win the elections.

Senior member Pinantun Hutasoit said Golkar leaders, particularly those on the executive board, should take responsibility for the sharp drop in votes for the party in the polls.

"The 10 percent drop in legislative votes is proof of the failure of the Golkar leadership in the elections," Pinantun, a former executive board member, said as quoted by Antara news agency. "As a Golkar member, I can't accept such a result. The central board must take responsibility before the presidential election."

He added the party needed to reformulate its strategies ahead of the presidential election, including by teaming up with other parties.

Golkar advisory board member Sri Sultan Hamengkubowono X admitted he was not surprised by the decline in votes. "It was likely caused by the party's uncertainty over naming a presidential candidate," he said.

He added the uncertainty had caused poor coordination in the field between the central executive board and its provincial boards in facing the legislative elections. Hamengkubuwono was the first Golkar member to declare his presidential bid.

Golkar has long been under pressure to hold a convention to name its presidential candidate, as it did in the 2004 elections. Kalla, however, rejected the notion, saying it would only benefit freeloaders within Golkar who wanted to contest the presidency.

Golkar is currently the biggest faction at the House of Representatives, controlling 128 of 550 seats.

As of Sunday, the Center for Vote Tabulation had recorded a total of 1.49 million votes, with Golkar in second place with about 14 percent, and the Democratic Party out in front with 20 percent. A series of quick counts also put Golkar firmly behind President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, senior PPP members have urged the party to hold an extraordinary meeting to replace chairman Suryadharma Ali, following his failure to lead the party to the targeted 15 percent of votes.

"We want the party to hold an extraordinary meeting to change the leadership of the party," said PPP deputy secretary-general Lukman Hakim Hasibuan.

According to the Center for Vote Tabulation and quick count surveys, the PPP collected around 5 percent of votes, putting it in sixth place.

Elections start to claim victims from among losing candidates

Jakarta Post - April 13, 2009

Yemris Fointuna, Kupang/Jakarta – Many legislative hopefuls are beginning to sniff the stench of failure after Thursday's elections. The losers are responding not only with a wrinkling of their noses but also with actions suggesting hostility and even mental disturbance.

Voters all across the country cast their ballots Thursday to elect members of Regional Legislative Councils (DPRD), the Regional Representative Council (DPD) and the House of Representatives.

Thousands of candidates joined the race, spending hundreds of millions, and even billions of rupiah in campaigns to win seats. However, the limited number of seats available spelled a bitter ending for most.

Cries of dismay filled the Oebobo sub-district office in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, last Saturday, after several candidates discovered their failure to win council seats.

"I gave it all I had. I even pawned my land and house, but I didn't win enough votes to get a seat," said a candidate who declined to be identified, adding he would demand his campaign team return the money.

Another candidate running for the Kupang legislative council articulated his disappointment by sealing off his well, preventing neighbors from drawing water from it.

"I always did good by them, and yet they didn't vote for me. So I'd much rather seal off my well and let them find out for themselves how difficult it is to find clean water in Kupang," he said.

Another candidate appeared to have lost his common sense. He was seen walking around town wearing shorts while talking to himself.

Last Wednesday, the health minister, in anticipation of such cases, ordered the nation's 32 mental hospitals to put their doctors on alert after the results of the legislative elections were made public.

Kupang General Hospital, for example, has prepared seven extra rooms specifically for unfortunate hopefuls who failed in the elections.

Menur Mental Hospital in Sura-baya, East Java, has allocated a special vehicle for the elections. "We have dedicated one car to pick up distressed candidates," hospital director Hendro Riyanto told tempointeraktif.com.

Indonesian Mental Health Network chairman Pandu Setiawan said those suffering stress from failure in the elections were most likely unfit to contest the polls in the first place.

He added the number of losing candidates suffering from mental distress might not be as high as the government had feared. "As long as the hopefuls are backed by their family, there is little chance they will suffer heavy mental disturbance that requires professional help," he said. (dis)

Legitimacy of election results comes into question

Jakarta Post - April 13, 2009

Dicky Christanto, Jakarta – The brouhaha surrounding the voter lists and the numerous election violations have sparked protests from losing political parties and civil society groups that could undermine the legitimacy of the polls.

Politicians, activists and scholars have pointed their fingers at the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the government, with some even taking legal action against them.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), which had agreed to form a coalition in parliament and for the upcoming presidential election, have said they would file a lawsuit against the KPU and the government for omitting many eligible voters from the official voter lists.

Activists from the National Amendment Council estimated the figure of eligible but unregistered voters could reach millions, and called on the KPU to organize another round of voting for these voters.

"At least another election should be organized for those eligible voters who were not registered. This is the responsibility of the KPU and the government," Chalid Muhammad told a press conference Sunday.

He urged these "disenfranchised" voters to take legal action if another election was not forthcoming.

Effendy Ghazali, who also attended Sunday's press briefing, estimated the number of eligible but unregistered voters could top 10 million people, assuming 20 voters were left out from each of 528,217 polling stations across the country.

The KPU added 23.3 million more eligible voters to its 2009 voter lists for a total of 171.3 million, compared to 140 million in the 2004 elections.

These new additions, however, left many perplexed, as most of them were simply "ghost" voters or redundant names. "We found names of infants or names of people who had already passed away," Effendy said.

Elections Supervisory Body (Bawaslu) member Bambang Eka Cahya disagreed and slammed the group as biased. He suggested the activists come up with real data, and not make assumptions.

"Don't just assume things that you don't know for sure. I agree there were so many mistakes in this election, but to just make assumptions is just not fair," he said.

Bawaslu, meanwhile, reported on Sunday that cases of ballot mix- ups, where ballots destined for certain regions went to other regions, made up most of the poll irregularities.

"About 159 cases of ballot mix-ups were registered as of 7 p.m. on Saturday; this is the most rampant form of [election] irregularity," said Bawaslu member Wahidah Suaib.

The National Amendment Council suggested the government replace KPU members for failing to organize the legislative elections well. "We don't want to jeopardize the upcoming presidential election by risking incompetent people organizing the election," Chalid said.

Hadar Gumay from the Center for Electoral Reform (Cetro), however, disagreed, saying that replacing KPU members was just too risky. "It would be better for us to wait until the whole election process is over. It is too risky to replace them now, even though I agree these people are incompetent," he said.

Triumph at the polls puts Yudhoyono in box seat

Sydney Morning Herald - April 12, 2009

Tom Allard, Jakarta – A strong showing in national elections presents the President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, with an opportunity to cast off his ultra-cautious approach to politics and policy-making and mark out a reformist agenda.

At stake is an opportunity for Indonesia to break the shackles of the business and civil service elites who still dominate the country, reform its maddeningly inefficient bureaucracy and make decisive inroads into a culture of entrenched corruption.

Indonesia, in many ways, stands as a beacon of regional stability and democracy, but the huge potential of this resource-rich nation of 240 million remains largely untapped.

Its infrastructure is crumbling and most people live barely above subsistence level while the elite enjoys enormous wealth and a strong grip on power.

There are few young politicians emerging and it looks almost certain that the presidential poll in July will be a re-run of 2004, with Dr Yudhoyono facing off against the former president Megawati Soekarnoputri.

The horse-trading among political parties to select candidates for the presidential poll will provide early indications of whether Dr Yudhoyono has been emboldened by his party's performance. On provisional counting, the Democrat Party has garnered about 20 per cent of the national vote, triple the 2004 result, which is likely to be enough for Dr Yudhoyono to stand again as president without a coalition partner.

It an was impressive result because, while Dr Yudhoyono has a high profile and deep coffers to fund an advertising blitz, his young party lacked the cadres and on-the-ground organisation important in garnering support in the far-flung regions and villages.

Golkar, the party of the Vice-President, Jusuf Kalla, and Ms Megawati's Party of Democratic Struggle, each polled between 14 and 15 per cent, while the biggest Islamic-based party, the PKS, scored 8 per cent, according to early counting.

Dr Yudhoyono's personal popularity is sky high, further strengthening his hand. "He is almost in an unassailable position when it comes to the presidential election," said Greg Fealy, the Indonesia analyst at the Australian National University.

Even so, the Democrat Party is unlikely to go it alone. A failure to annihilate its rival in the election on Thursday means Dr Yudhoyono will be far short of a majority in the national legislature.

This reality, and a measure of political timidity, seem likely to prevent Dr Yudhoyono from naming the highly regarded Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, as his vice-presidential pick.

Dr Yudhoyono and Mr Kalla, a wealthy businessman, have fallen out, complicating the process. And Mr Kalla and Ms Megawati have been talking about forming a coalition to challenge Dr Yudhoyono.

But Maswardi Rauf, from the University of Indonesia, said another Yudhoyono-Kalla duet was still possible.

The other option is for Dr Yudhoyono to align with smaller Islamic parties. There are several ministers from the Islamic parties in his current "rainbow" cabinet. Their presence drove the decision to crack down on an Islamic sect, Ahmadiyah, and introduce a controversial anti-pornography bill.

Still, this week's election showed Indonesians overwhelmingly reject the notion of overt religion dominating politics.

Indonesia president eyes allies, but coalition may take weeks

Reuters - April 12, 2009

Karima Anjani and Sunanda Creagh, Jakarta – Indonesia's president may tap an Islamist party with a tough stance on graft for his coalition, as well as other groups ahead of presidential elections in July, aiming for a stable and united alliance to improve governance.

Coalition-building by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrat Party could take days or even weeks, and will ultimately dictate the pace of reform in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.

Party leaders have already held a flurry of talks in recent days in a rush to start building powerful pacts.

Fewer than one million votes from 170 million registered voters have been counted by the general election commission so far, with initial results based on quick counts from sample polling stations.

While the Democrat Party won the most votes, at around 20 percent, it was less than the nearly 30 percent that some opinion polls had predicted. That has forced the Democrats into coalition talks before the more important presidential vote that Yudhoyono, Indonesia's most popular party leader, is tipped to win. "What we see now is merely discussion" said Anies Baswedan, a political analyst and rector of Paramadina University in Jakarta.

As Indonesia feels the effect of a global economic downturn, attention will focus on who Yudhoyono, 59, picks as political allies, because of the impact on cabinet posts and policy-making.

Indonesia needs to woo billions of dollars of investment to address its creaking infrastructure, create jobs, and achieve a faster pace of growth, which is set to slow to 3-4 percent this year, from 6.1 percent in 2008. Endemic graft, red tape and legal uncertainty still deter investors and needs to be addressed.

Yudhoyono, a reform-minded ex-general, won Indonesia's first direct presidential election in 2004 on promises to crack down on corruption, boost economic growth and create jobs. But because his party won a small share of the seats in 2004, he had to offer some cabinet posts to political allies, a move which thwarted reform and slowed down decision-making.

On Friday, Yudhoyono stressed he wanted a committed coalition this time and said it could include the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), an Islamist party which has done well in some key local elections because of its emphasis on clean, efficient governance, but which could also alienate minorities and moderates.

"It's difficult because (Yudhoyono) could lose votes, it may cause people to stay away from him as the nationalists aren't comfortable enough to be partners with PKS," said Baswedan.

Yudhoyono also appeared to leave the door open to extending an alliance with the Golkar Party, the long-time political vehicle for Suharto, the country's late autocratic ruler.

Election hitches

Thursday's parliamentary elections, a massive exercise in democracy in the 17,000-island archipelago, went relatively smoothly, but were marred by violence in Papua, east Indonesia, and hitches with voter lists and distribution of ballot papers.

The Democrats almost tripled their vote from 7.5 percent in 2004, as Yudhoyono has delivered strong economic growth and brought relative peace and stability to the world's most populous Muslim nation, which also has sizeable religious minorities.

In contrast, two main parties from the Suharto era – former President Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P and Vice President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party – did worse in this election, snaring about 14 percent of the votes.

Those two parties are seen as potential coalition partners, but Megawati also met Prabowo Subianto of the Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra).

"We will meet more intensively over the following days. Between us, we share many values, many common attitudes views and many nationalist values," Prabowo said after meeting Megawati on Saturday.

If Yudhoyono sticks with his current alliance with Golkar and Islamist parties, analysts said this would lead to a slower pace of reform, but they still expect market-friendly policies, particularly if Yudhoyono keeps his respected finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, and other technocrats in the cabinet.

An alliance with PKS and other Islamic parties would allow Yudhoyono a freer hand to fight graft and cut bureaucracy. But it could also lead to more sharia-style laws or policies similar to a controversial anti-pornography law passed last year, and alienate secular supporters and religious minorities.

[Additional reporting by Muklis Ali and Olivia Rondonuwu; Writing by Sara Webb; Editing by David Fox.]

Non-voters give elections the worst turnout since 1999

Jakarta Globe - April 11, 2009

Muninggar Sri Saraswati – This year's legislative elections saw the biggest number of non-voters in a decade, with some pollsters predicting up to 40 percent failed to show up for the country's third general elections since the fall of former President Suharto.

Quick counts conducted by the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Education and Information, or LP3ES, indicated that the number of eligible voters who did not exercise their rights in Thursday's legislative elections may reach 34 percent.

"This is the highest figure [of non-voters] since the 1999 elections," Sudar D. Atmanto, who is the deputy director of LP3ES, said on Friday.

In the 1999 elections, the first after Suharto's iron-fisted regime fell apart, 20 percent of the total eligible voters stayed away from the polls, while in 2004 about 26 percent abstained. The General Elections Commission, or KPU, listed more than 171 million eligible voters for this year's legislative elections. The 34 percent estimate does not including unregistered voters.

LP3ES estimated that if the number of non-voters was combined with the number of unregistered voters, the total would be around 40 percent. The KPU has received widespread criticism for its failure to include many people with voting rights on its final voters list, leaving thousands of people out of this year's legislative elections.

Another pollster, the Strategic Center for Development and Policy Review, or Puskaptis, also estimated around 40 percent of eligible voters did not participate in Thursday's elections. The Indonesian Survey Institute, or LSI, put the figure at about 35 percent.

Sudar said the KPU should be held responsible for the high number of non-voters this year, citing a failure to disseminate adequate information about the elections and problems involving the final list of voters. "Certainly, the government and KPU must review the final list of voters for the presidential election," he said.

Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a researcher from LSI, added that Indonesian voters have been suffering from "elections fatigue" due to races on the local level that have been conducted continuously since 2005. "Too many local elections have played a part in the decreasing participation in Thursday's elections," he said.

Burhanuddin said voters were also skeptical about the performance of the legislators who would sit in the House of Representatives this year. "The available choices are equally terrible," he said.

Burhanuddin also said that some people chose not to vote because they wanted to take advantage of the extended holiday weekend from Thursday to Sunday.

Meanwhile, KPU chairman Abdul Hafiz Anshyary said the commission had done its best to organize the elections, but he expressed regret that people with the right to vote had been left off the final voters list. "We apologize if they could not vote, though we had made announcements about the final voters list several times," he said.

Hundreds of irregularities in Indonesia vote

Agence France Presse - April 11, 2009

Jakarta – Indonesia's general elections have been marred by hundreds of complaints about irregularities, officials said on Saturday, raising questions about the legitimacy of the vote in some areas.

The Election Supervisory Body said it had received almost 400 official reports of irregularities surrounding Thursday's legislative vote, only the third in the country since the fall of strongman Suharto in 1998.

"We have received 378 election violation reports from officials in 28 provinces," Supervisory Body vote-counting chief Wahidah Suaib said. "The reported cases are mostly about polling stations receiving ballots designated for other stations."

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party won the most votes, according to independent polling agencies, but the final official results are not expected until May 9.

The Electoral Commission was widely criticised for its poor organisation of the poll, with reports of incomplete voter lists and delays in distributing ballot papers across the vast archipelago's 6,000 inhabited islands.

Suaib said most of the problems had appeared in Southeast Sulawesi, Central Java and West Kalimantan provinces. "Depending on the case, there might have to be a repeat of the vote in some polling stations."

Gerindra, a populist party led by the former head of the notorious Kopassus special forces, Prabowo Subianto, said it would consider calling for a re-vote in some areas.

"There were many double names for voters. There were many eligible voters whose names weren't on the registration lists," party chairman Suhardi said.

"If we find enough proof of violations or mistakes in the procedures in one or more polling stations, then we'll ask for that area to recast their votes."

The People's Conscience Party of former army chief Wiranto also said the election might have to be repeated in the worst-affected polling stations.

"There were many logistical problems. Some of the ballot papers had already been ticked before people actually voted," party official Slamet Rujito said.

The election sets the stage for more important presidential elections in July, in which Yudhoyono is seeking a second five- year term.

Confusion surrounds elections in Indonesia

Sydney Morning Herald - April 9, 2009

Tom Allard, Jakarta – Indonesia goes to the polls today amid widespread confusion about new voting rules, chaotic organisation and warnings of corrupted voter lists.

The general election, the third since the dictator Soeharto was deposed, is a huge undertaking involving 171 million registered voters who will decide on more than 800,000 candidates contesting national, provincial and district legislatures.

There are more than 600,000 polling stations on the country's 6000 or so populated islands.

The most important contest, the vote for 560 members of the national legislature, will have an important bearing on the presidential poll due in July.

Opinion polls suggest President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat will win at least 25 per cent of the seats, the threshold needed to run as president.

Golkar, Soeharto's former party, and Megawati Soekarnoputri's Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) are polling about 15 per cent while several smaller nationalist and Islamic parties show support between 4 and 7 per cent.

PDI-P officials said this week there was already evidence of substantial electoral fraud and accused the country's electoral commission of being improperly influenced by parties with "close access to the power holder", Partai Demokrat.

Meanwhile, analysts have described the organisation of the poll as unprofessional and chaotic. "We have introduced quite radical changes to the voting system," said Muhammed Qodari, executive director of Indobarometer, a polling organisation. "But there has been much less education of the population for this year's election compared to the last one."

Due to the huge number of candidates and 44 parties competing at national and regional level, the ballot papers are as big as the polling booths. Rather than simply nominating the party of their choice, voters will have to select individual candidates whose photos will be displayed outside the polling stations. And they will have to vote for candidates for at least two, and sometimes, three parliaments.

There have also been persistent problems with assembling the voter lists, including allegations that rolls contain names that appear numerous times, include people who do not exist and dead people. The executed Bali bomber Amrozi, for example, is reportedly on the list.

Vote buying is rampant and there are only 77,300 official poll monitors policing the 610,000 odd polling stations. Adding to the chaos potential, voters will have only from 7am to noon to vote.

Another potential flashpoint is a new rule that only candidates whose party achieves 2.5 per cent or more of the overall vote will be able to take their place in the national parliament.

That means successful candidates may not be able to take their seats. Forty per cent of parties represented in the parliament are likely to be wiped out.

This week President Yudhoyono called for a peaceful election, as he deployed hundreds of thousands of police and military to handle security. But it may be that Indonesians respond to the confusion by simply not turning up at all.

Many are taking advantage of the long weekend – Good Friday is a national holiday in officially secular Indonesia. There are predictions that up to 40 per cent of eligible voters will not participate, twice the level of the previous poll.

Yudhoyono's popularity may boost party gains in Indonesia vote

Bloomberg - April 8, 2009

Leony Aurora and Arijit Ghosh – Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's 70 percent personal approval rating is his Democrat Party's strongest asset as it enters the election season seeking to boost its rank as the fifth-largest party in parliament.

Polls show the Democrats may more than double their seats in tomorrow's legislative election, building momentum for the presidential contest in July. Since taking power in 2004, Yudhoyono has helped stabilize the economy and reduce terrorism in Indonesia, home to the world's largest Muslim population.

Parliamentary gains would lessen Yudhoyono's need for coalition partners, who have blocked some of his moves to combat an economic slowdown. They would also strengthen his hand against opposition leader Megawati Soekarnoputri, whom he defeated in 2004, and against another potential opponent, Vice President Jusuf Kalla, head of the Golkar party in the governing coalition.

Yudhoyono "would be by far the dominant figure, which he was not when he won the elections in 2004," said R. William Liddle, a professor of politics at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, who has written on Indonesian politics for four decades. "He will have to pay a lot less attention to coalition-building."

The president's handling of security issues and the economy has helped his popularity. Indonesia has been free of terrorism for 3 1/2 years, following attacks in the previous five years that killed 280 people.

National security

The number of Indonesians who consider national security "bad" declined to 10 percent in December 2008 from 18 percent in September 2005, according to a poll taken by the Indonesian Survey Institute and published in January.

A February poll by the Jakarta-based institute showed about half of the 2,455 respondents wanted Yudhoyono, 59, back as president after he reduced gasoline prices three times in three months. That was up from 25 percent in June, a month after the government had increased fuel prices by about 30 percent.

Indonesia's economy expanded 6.3 percent in 2007, the fastest pace in 11 years. The number of poor in Asia's third-most populous nation fell to 15.4 percent of the population in March 2008 from 16.7 percent five years ago. Still, the Asian Development Bank forecasts that Indonesia's $433 billion economy will grow by only 3.6 percent in 2009.

The eight-year-old Democrat Party, formed to give Yudhoyono a base, was favored by 24 percent of respondents in the institute's survey. Kalla's Golkar party was ranked third with 14.3 percent.

Young party

The Democrats fielded candidates for parliament for the first time in 2004 and won about 10 percent of the seats. Kalla's Golkar party, which got 23 percent, is 45 years old.

Yudhoyono and his coalition partners, including Golkar, haven't always agreed on policy.

In December, Golkar's opposition kept Indonesia's parliament from ratifying a regulation giving the government more power to use state funds to rescue banks, insurers and other financial institutions. The party said the bill gave the central bank and the government too much authority.

"I, as head of the government, feel this kind of coalition is a bit troubling," Yudhoyono said in an interview with Jurnal Nasional on Feb. 19 that was also published on Yudhoyono's Web site. "Coalition ethics as I understand it means the political parties that have representatives in the cabinet shouldn't cause government policies to fail."

Candidates rejected

In March 2008, the parliament rejected two candidates proposed by Yudhoyono to replace then-central bank Governor Burhanuddin Abdullah.

The government has said it may add to its 71.3 trillion rupiah ($6.2 billion) stimulus package to help the economy expand. Parliamentary approval for the package will be needed.

The Democrat party would need an additional 55 seats in addition to its current 57 lawmakers to be able to independently nominate Yudhoyono for re-election. The party is fielding 671 candidates, the most among the 38 parties.

Yudhoyono's popularity hasn't fallen below that of opposition leader Megawati since September 2006 and remains higher than Kalla's, according to the survey institute.

James Castle, president of CastleAsia, a business advisory services company, cited the surveys for his confidence in Yudhoyono's re-election later this year even if Kalla opposed rather than accompanies him.

"I think he will win" no matter who is vice president, said Jakarta-based Castle, who has lived in Indonesia for 32 years. "In a tight race the vice president might make a difference, but I don't see it in this one."

Armed forces/defense

LBH urges military to stop 'urban warfare'

Jakarta Post - April 15, 2009

Indra Harsaputra and Ahmad Faisal, Surabaya – The Surabaya Legal Aid Institute (LBH) on Tuesday accused the Indonesian Military of violating international law by conducting a military exercise in a civilian area in Putat Jaya, Surabaya.

LBH director Syaiful Aris said the institute and squatters in the affected area had sent a letter to the military chief to protest the exercise, dubbed Pertempuran Kota (Urban Warfare).

"The residents' lives are at threat, since the officers used live ammunition and explosives. One resident suffered light injuries after being shot during the exercise," he said.

Another squatter, Muhajir, claimed most squatters were afraid of the gunshots that could be heard day and night during the exercise, which started Friday.

He added the exercise had also damaged two dwellings. "Although we built our homes illegally, we still pay taxes. Don't use violence against us," he said.

Squatters claim the exercise is part of an effort to evict them from the 45,550-square-meter plot of land owned by the Karya Surya Harapan Kesejahtraan Foundation.

Syaiful concurred, saying that in 2007, the foundation had hired Navy marines to guard the plot, located near the renowned Dolly brothel complex.

Residents have urged the National Land Agency to issue a ruling on the status of the land, which has been occupied for years and is now home to 3,250 people from 650 families. The land used to be part of a Chinese graveyard, locally known as Bong.

Disputes over the land arose in 2006, when the foundation's lawyers reported local leaders to the police for illegally occupying the land. Some of the leaders were questioned by Surabaya Police for allegedly destroying the foundation's assets.

On Sunday, members of the foundation were seen conducting a ritual ceremony at the graveyard, the first such occasion in many years. Foundation chairman Henry Jeconiah Gunawan denied any links between the foundation and the military exercise.

"There is no connection. But we're glad we can still pray here without any disruption from people who should not be living here," he said.

Police have since Friday deployed officers to the area. "Based on the report we received on the shooting, the area was empty. Those people were already evicted by Surabaya Public Order officials," said Surabaya Police chief Sr. Comr. Ronny Frankie Sompie.

East Java Brawijaya Military Command Chief of Staff Brig. Gen. Bambang Sumarno denied the military exercise was a disguised eviction, saying it was aimed at improving his officers' urban combat skills.

"There's no other reason. We considered the location the least risky place among other locations. We once conducted similar exercises in hotels," Bambang said.

He added that based on medical examinations, there was no evidence the squatter who claimed to have been shot had really suffered any injuries.

Combat exercise draws fire in East Java

Jakarta Globe - April 10, 2009

Amir Tejo, Surabaya – Residents, the Army and police plunged into a war of words on Friday after a training exercise transformed a sleepy Surabaya suburb into a virtual battlefield.

Some 150 soldiers from the 516th Infantry Battalion descended on the crowded Putat Jaya Baru housing complex with guns blazing. A row has now reached a fever pitch over whether they were using live ammunition or blanks.

Also in dispute is whether residents and local police were amply warned. The training drill is being blamed for light neck and leg injuries to two residents, allegedly from ricocheting bullets.

The victim with the neck injury, Syamsul Arifin, 35, was present when the firing started around 10 a.m.

Another local resident, Taufan, said he watched the event. "I was standing about two meters away from Syamsul. Suddenly, he screamed, 'Aduh! [Ouch!],' and his neck was wounded as the soldiers kept on firing their guns."

But the Armed Forced denied those allegations. The operational chief of the Bhaskara Jaya Military Subdistrict Command, Lt. Col. Supriono, insisted the soldiers were firing blanks.

"Thus, it's impossible that we caused any injury to civilians," he said. "The weapons that were used by personnel were using blank ammunition. They even put recoil caps on the rifles to block the barrels."

The Armed Forces had asked permission from local landowners and held public education programs about the planned city combat drill with local residents, Supriono said.

Armed Forces officials said they had sent a letter of notification to police, but police denied there had been any such warning.

The chief of South Surabaya Police, Adj. Comr. Lakoni, said he had been shown a notification letter after the drill, but it was a copy "held by the military district commander." "It says that I received a copy of it. But up to now, I haven't got it yet," he said.

In addition, the Surabaya Legal Counsel Foundation also criticized the Armed Forces for holding a drill in such a crowded civilian area, saying that it violated the military's responsibility to protect residents.

"Military activity should not be performed in a peaceful region," foundation head Atoillah said. "Even in a real battle, it should not be conducted if there is a high density of civilians. There should be an area where humans are safe from gunfire," he said.

Economy & investment

Economic downturn hits tax revenues

Jakarta Post - April 14, 2009

Erwida Maulia and Aditya Suharmoko, Jakarta – Constrained by the global downturn, Indonesia only managed to collect Rp 162 trillion (US$14.57 billion) in state revenue during the first quarter this year, or less than 20 percent of the full-year target in the state budget.

In the first three months of 2009, the government collected Rp 133.2 trillion in gross tax revenue (20.1 percent of the full- year target) and Rp 19.4 trillion in customs and excise revenue (26.3 percent of the target), Coordinating Minister for the economy Sri Mulyani Indrawati said in State Palace on Monday.

She was at a meeting attended by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Vice President Jusuf Kalla, State Secretary Hatta Radjasa and two other coordinating ministers. "Tax revenue declined, mostly from value added tax on imports, which contracted," said Mulyani.

According to the directorate general of taxation, VAT and luxury tax slid 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009. "The impact of the crisis was felt in our revenue," said Darmin Nasution, the director general of taxation.

But Darmin's office still managed to collect Rp 113.75 trillion in net tax revenue – gross revenue minus tax refunds – between January and March, a 1.9 percent increase from Rp 111.61 trillion collected in the same period last year.

Mulyani said manufacturing industry had the worst performance in terms of tax revenue. In the first quarter of 2008 the sector raised Rp 16.7 trillion in income tax, but in this year's first quarter the sector only raised Rp 13 trillion.

Manufacturing industry also only paid Rp 15.3 trillion in VAT between January and March, down from Rp 17.8 trillion a year earlier.

"Other sectors, like trade, hotels and restaurants; and transportation and communications were relatively stable," she said.

Mulyani added the government would keep monitoring the details on state revenue to get an accurate projection of current economic trends, adjusting state expenditure to match changing conditions.

But Darmin said economic activities had shown signs of picking up as the decline in VAT revenue on imports in March was less than in January. "Economic activities in March were better compared to January as seen from the tax indicators."

Last week, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry also said economic activities had picked up in March as seen from higher electricity consumption by industry.

Indonesia's economic growth, stood at 6.1 percent last year, but has slowed down since the fourth quarter of last year, with exports faltering as the global economic downturn has cut demand and pushed down prices of key commodities.

Mulyani said the economy might expand between 4.3 percent and 4.8 percent in the first three months this year, with a "mid point of 4.5 percent" due to quite high growth in private consumption.

She said that government spending reached between 8 percent and 13 percent, higher than in the first quarter of 2008.

According to the Finance Ministry, investment growth seems to have contracted by 50 percent to between 5 percent and 6.5 percent in the three-month period (usually it shows double-digit growth) and export growth contracted to between 6 percent and 9 percent.

Exports to US go up in February, but 'insignificant'

Jakarta Post - April 10, 2009

Mustaqim Adamrah, Jakarta – While the rise in exports to the US in February compared to January bucked the trend to a slump in overall exports and was encouraging, high-ranking officials insisted that it did not reflect the general trend that the country's economy will experience in the following months.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported earlier that non-oil and gas exports to the US rose by 3.9 percent to US$802.4 million in February from $772.3 million a month earlier, making the US Indonesia's top export destination, pushing aside Japan, which was top of the list for seven months in a row.

But BPS head Rusman Heriawan said Thursday the month-on-month increase "was insignificant and did not represent the general trend in months to come".

"The US and Japan have always been Indonesia's top two export destinations. Had there been a decline in our exports to the US, that country would have been still among our top two destination countries," he said.

Rusman said the increase might have resulted from previous orders where shipments had been delayed, with exporters catching up now. Indonesia exports mainly footwear, textiles and garments and relatively simple electronic devices and consumer goods to the US.

Echoing Rusman, Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) chairman Sofjan Wanandi said he believed the increase did not signal a turning point or recovery in global trade demand, but rather represented "deliveries of orders that had been placed months before".

Singgih Witarso, Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) secretary-general, also concurred, saying that the increase was because US buyers had asked Indonesian manufacturers to delay deliveries for their current orders for months, "even until June".

"Their orders should have been delivered last November, or December, but were delayed because buyers had requested postponement, while they were still selling off their stocks."

However he also confirmed that local footwear manufacturers had secured orders amounting to "hundreds of millions of dollars" from the US for "high-class, formal" shoes until the end of the 2009.

Footwear exports hit almost $1.89 billion last year, with 25 percent of this volume going to the US. Rusman forecast that in general, total exports to the US will decline until the year-end, already showing a 22.5 percent drop to $1.6 billion in the first two months this year, compared to the $2 billion booked in the corresponding period last year.

Globally, Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports declined by 2.4 percent to $6 billion in February this year from $6.2 billion in the earlier month and dropped 26 percent from the same month in 2008.

The BPS' data shows that total exports stood at $7.08 billion in February this year, a 1 percent drop from $7.15 billion in the previous month, or a 33 percent fall from last year's February.

Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) has forecast exports would fall by 30 percent in the first quarter this year and could even drop by 50 percent in the second quarter.

Industrial activities pick up in first quarter: Officials

Jakarta Post - April 10, 2009

Aditya Suharmoko, Jakarta – Having been falling since the last quarter of 2008, the country's industries – mainly those aimed at the domestic market – have begun to show signs of perking up, indicated by an increase in electrical power consumed in the first quarter this year, compared to a quarter earlier, a ministry official says.

While industry as a whole experienced contraction in the final four months of last year, there were signs of more industrial activity in the following quarter, the first quarter of 2009, said director general of electricity and energy utilization at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, J. Purwono, on Thursday.

"Electrical usage of industries began to increase in the first quarter of 2009 from the fourth quarter of 2008, when industrial activities were sluggish," Purwono said. "Maybe industries have found new markets," he added.

His statements echoed remarks on Monday by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati who said power consumption of industries rose 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter, indicating more activity.

It signaled, she said, that industries have continued producing goods amid the global economic downturn because of higher demand in the domestic market.

The Industry Ministry has said industries may expand between 3.6 percent and 4.6 percent this year. Indonesia's economy may expand as low as 3 percent this year, according to the central bank, as exports and investments slow down.

While the country will not reach economic growth comparable to last year's 6.1 percent, the impact of the global economic slowdown will be cushioned or countered if industries can maintain output, provided that domestic demand, Indonesia's main economic driver, remains robust.

Both Purwono and Mulyani however, warned that a pick up in electricity in the first quarter was not yet significant on its own.

Compared to the electrical usage level of industries in the first quarter of 2008, this year's first quarter use of power by industry was less than that of last year, said Rudiantara, vice president director of the state power company PT PLN, the sole electricity public utility.

"Electrical usage of industries was down double-digits in the first quarter of 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier," he said, without elaborating.

Diesel consumption of industries in the first quarter of 2009 was also lower than that in the same period last year, said Anang Rizkani Noor, spokesman for state oil and gas firm PT Pertamina. "There has not been a significant rise in diesel consumption," he said.

However, in the first quarter, Indonesia's economy is predicted to have expanded by 4.6 percent, according to the Finance Ministry. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will reveal the official first-quarter growth in May.

Indonesia's exports may drop by 50% in Q2, Kadin says

Jakarta Post - April 9, 2009

Jakarta – As the global downturn is still nowhere near recovering, Indonesia's exports – having dropped 30 percent in the first quarter – will fall even faster in the second three- month period, a business grouping predicts.

The Indonesian Chambers of Commerce and Industry told a forum on Tuesday evening that exports would most likely plunge by up to 50 percent in the second quarter as the slump in global demand continued.

"In the second quarter, the country may see a 50 percent decline in exports after a fall of around 30 percent in the first quarter," said Kadin chairman M.S. Hidayat said.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the official body to issue export statistics, is yet to announce its quarterly export performance.

It reported however that exports in February contracted by 33 percent from a year earlier, having slid 1 percent further down from January, with the global economic crisis cutting demand and pushing down the prices of key commodities.

As the impact of the global economic downturn worsens, including upon exports and investment flows, the central bank has made a further revision to the country's 2009 economic growth rate previously forecast at between 4 and 5 percent, down to between 3 and 4 percent. Neither compares well with last year's growth of 6.1 percent.

But, Hidayat was optimistic that exports would start to rebound beyond the second quarter, taking into account various incentive schemes by governments across the globe to bolster the financing of international trade, which could then help boost export demand.

For Indonesia, Hidayat also expects the government's stimulus package – including trade financing facilities for exporters – to gradually help relieve the economic misery for Indonesian businesses.

The government has secured a US$500 million trade financing facility loan from Japan and is looking at similar schemes with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) – the private arm of the World Bank.

"Exports will bounce back after the second quarter, boosted in part by recovery schemes involving lower interest rates and disbursement of fiscal stimulus," Hidayat said.

He expected that the export slowdown would not have too negative an impact on the economy so long as the country could keep its domestic market demand robust. Domestic consumption makes up around 60 percent of Indonesia's economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP).

Even in the first quarter, when exports dropped by around 30 percent, the economy still managed to grow by 4.6 percent, according to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on Tuesday, in line also with Bank Indonesia's estimate.

Rusman Heriawan, head of BPS, while not mentioning figures, agreed with the government and central bank on Indonesia's first quarter growth, that the elections had helped bolster economic growth.

"There are three factors which have contributed a major part in stimulating consumption in order to achieve positive economic growth – the 15 percent rise in state employees' salaries, political parties spending on election campaigns and the low level of prices tending to strengthen consumer purchasing power," Rusman said Wednesday.

Rusman agreed with Hidayat that that despite declining exports, the country would be able to achieve positive growth if the government managed to promote and sustain growth in consumption.

"What is important now is to accelerate the disbursement of the stimulus package and to maintain consumer spending. If the government is able to do that, we may see a better result in the second quarter." The government has allocated a Rp 73.3 trillion ($6.4 billion) stimulus package to help cushion the impact of the crisis. (fmb/hdt)

Economy may grow by 4.6% in Q1, supported by elections

Jakarta Post - April 8, 2009

Jakarta – The economy may have grown by 4.6 percent in the first quarter of the year from a year earlier, as the elections helped pushed up consumption, the finance minister says.

Consumption remains the largest contributor to Indonesia's economy, making up about 70 percent of the GDP.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati told reporters Tuesday that a number factors in the first three months of the year had helped boost consumption, such as the campaign for the general elections, fuel price cuts, and salary increase for state employees.

"Almost all political parties spent massive amounts on consumption during their campaigns in various activities," Mulyani said. "Bank Indonesia predicts that household consumption grew by 4.1 percent, while we predict it grew by 4.6 percent."

The growth in consumption, Mulyani added, mitigated slumping export figures and slowing flows of investment amid the global credit crunch.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) has reported that non-oil and gas exports contracted 28.34 percent to $12.26 billion in the first two months of this year, from $17.11 billion in the corresponding period last year.

Total exports stood at $14.23 billion in that period this year, a 34.5 percent drop from the $21.73 billion recorded in the same period last year, BPS data shows, with the central bank also cutting its full-year growth forecast to between 3 and 4 percent, down from the initial 4 to 5 percent.

"The recent trend of decreasing imports will also have a significant effect on investment. We predict that investment growth will decrease to 4 percent from 12 percent in the first quarter," Mulyani said.

Indonesia's economic growth of 4.6 percent is slower than the 6.1 percent booked in the fourth quarter of last year, but is still fairly respectable as compared to many of its peers in the region amid the global downturn.

Mulyani said the first quarter growth was within the government's expectations. "We have told the House of Re-presentatives that economic growth this year will tend to go downward, between 4 and 4.5 percent. That means our first quarter prediction is still achievable," she said.

Mulyani also said the fiscal stimulus, worth Rp 43 trillion, had also contributed in improving consumers' spending power for consumption in the first quarter. "The tax cuts and their impact in stimulating purchasing power are already effectively recorded within the economic system during the first quarter as well."

It forms part of the government's Rp 73.3 trillion in stimulus package designed to keep the country's economic wheels oiled and eventually cushion the external economic impacts.

Going forward, Mulyani was upbeat the elections would again help stimulate the economy, in particular consumption.

"We should consider the fact that the election is far from over, as it will proceed to the presidential election in June, which will greatly affect consumption, not to mention the impact of lower fuel prices along with the increase of salaries for state employees," she said.

The BPS will reveal the official realization of this year's first quarter economic growth in May.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank forecast Indonesia's economy to grow this year by 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.

Indonesia needs to keep its eco-nomy expanding at a respectable rate to help prevent unemployment and keep poverty rates from rising. (hdt)

Analysis & opinion

Indonesia's Kalla faces toughest test

Asia Times - April 15, 2009

Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – Results from Indonesia's legislative election last week have raised more questions than they answered. None of the 38 parties contesting the ballot appears to have gotten sufficient support to field a presidential candidate without reaching out to partners to form a coalition.

The early vote count leaves every party with key decisions ahead of July's presidential ballot, Indonesia's second-ever direct election for the top job. The coming weeks will test political leaders across the board to make the right choices for themselves and their parties. And the toughest exam sheet landed on the desk of Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who doubles as the chairman of the military-linked Golkar's Party.

According to preliminary results, Golkar finished with around 14% of the vote, well behind the 20%-plus of the Democrat Party led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), and running neck-and-neck with former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI- P. Golkar could take second place in the official count, due next month, because it has more broadly based support than PDI-P, which gets nearly all of its backing from Java and Bali. No other party came close to double digits, and only nine passed the 2.5% threshold for seats in parliament.

The results mean Golkar, former president Suharto's ruling party during three decades of New Order corruption and autocracy, lost a third of its voter support if compared with 2004, when it replaced the PDI-P as the largest party in the lower house of parliament. But it's still one of the three top parties and its formidable field organization makes it an attractive partner. Forming a winning coalition will prove challenging for Golkar, though.

Aiming for the top

Kalla has stated that he wants to run for president, and, as Golkar's chairman, he's certainly the frontrunner for the party's nomination. While some in the party want to blame Kalla for the poor showing at the legislative polls, Kalla gives Golkar a credible post-Suharto image, looking forward rather than back. Golkar under Kalla has, for governing purposes, partnered with Yudhoyono's Democrats. But if Kalla wants to run for president, he needs to dissolve that partnership and find a new one.

Last month, Kalla held a much-publicized meeting with Megawati, leading to speculation that Golkar and the PDI-P could become coalition partners. At first glance, the pairing seems perfect: the number two and three parties ganging up on the number one. Even though the PDI-P came into being in response to Suharto's attempt to oust Megawati as leader of a sanctioned opposition party in his days of guided democracy, and later flourished as the vehicle for anti-Golkar reformasi, Megawati's presidency betrayed her old-guard values, including tolerance for corruption.

The PDI-P takes some liberal positions and is the most consistent defender of religious tolerance, but under Megawati's leadership it's arguably become a mirror image of Golkar. Megawati and Kalla also have a good track record as partners. Megawati put Kalla in her cabinet as coordinating minister for people's welfare. He made his political name in that post, negotiating settlements to Muslim-Christian conflicts in Central Sulawesi and the Moluccas.

But similarities and chemistry won't make a Golkar-PDI-P partnership easier. The biggest problem is that Megawati wants to run for president, too. Never mind that she was resoundingly rejected by voters in the last presidential election and that the PDI-P's popularity has kept sinking under her leadership. As a former president, and a proud, privileged Javanese, it's inconceivable that she would accept the second spot on the ticket.

Winning is everything

Ideology doesn't rank high in Indonesian politics, but Golkar's New Order legacy would make it difficult for it to team up with any Islamic party. The key calculation for Golkar and any partner will be whether they're creating a winning team with Kalla.

A native of South Sulawesi, Kalla is a latecomer to politics who took over a teetering family business and created a commercial empire, at least by local standards. Active in politics as a student, he was appointed to the national legislature under Suharto in 1987, but maintains a reputation for integrity. He was briefly a member of former president Abdurrahman Wahid's cabinet, but was dismissed on corruption allegations that are now believed to reflect more Wahid's erratic nature than Kalla's honesty.

In his five years as Yudhoyono's vice president, Kalla has often been far more visible and audible than his boss. In Asian business terms, Kalla has seemed to be the government's managing director, taking frontline responsibility, while Yudhoyono has been in the background as chairman. Another more local analogy might be more apt. Yudhoyono's leadership style reflects his Javanese background, where power is used sparingly and subtly; Kalla comes from a less restrained ethnic Bugis background.

That difference also matters because, according to conventional wisdom, only a Javanese can be elected president. Java is home to over half of the archipelago's population, but the notion seems awfully quaint and dated, particularly since Indonesia will be holding just its second direct president election this year. Questions about Kalla's appeal are less about geography than biography.

Don't preach, sing

Kalla has never run for public office before. His no-nonsense, business-like style with a hint of piety doesn't suggest a smooth transition to Indonesia's campaign stump, where candidates are expected to sing popular songs after displays of either fiery rhetoric or phony humility. On issues, to the extent they may come up, Kalla would face the difficult dance of taking credit for his accomplishments as vice president without the majority of the credit going to Yudhoyono. Moreover, there's simply no discernable excitement for Kalla's candidacy at the grassroots level, or perhaps more crucially within Golkar's elite.

Kalla's biggest problem, however, is timing: it seems unlikely that anyone can beat Yudhoyono in this election, and turning 67 next month, Kalla doesn't have time to wait for 2014. Last week's vote shows that's there's plenty of enthusiasm for Yudhoyono and not much yet for any potential opponent. In this climate, the best move for Kalla, and for Golkar, is for him to stay on the ticket as Yudhoyono's running mate, with or without Golkar's endorsement.

Whatever his ambitions, and however justified he may believe they are, Kalla should understand that vice president under SBY is the best job he can realistically hope to attain. Yudhoyono would seemingly welcome the opportunity to keep his winning ticket intact and avoid the potential pitfall of naming a new running mate. As the incumbent and favorite for re-election, he doesn't have to offer the vice presidency to bring in enough minor party parties to reach the 25% threshold.

For Golkar, the situation is a more complicated. As the second- or third-largest party in the new parliament, carrying the legacy of the nation's greatest period of prosperity and development (never mind the repression and corruption), Golkar owes its loyal membership a viable presidential candidate.

It has no shortage of party figures, such as media magnate Surya Palo or Yogyakarta's governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, and even alumni in minor parties, including former generals Wiranto, the party's 2004 presidential candidate, and Prabowo Subianto, who would be happy to take up Golkar's presidential banner, even in an apparently futile candidacy.

Kalla and Golkar may have to endure a ritual excommunication of its chairman for deserting the party. But with Kalla on Yudhoyono's ticket, Golkar will have the best of both worlds. If its candidate wins, Golkar will have recaptured the presidency, a stunning rebound from the disgrace of Suharto's 1998 fall from power. In the more likely event that the Yudhoyono-Kalla team triumphs, Golkar will still have its man on the inside and be in position to get some of the spoils of victory in a system where you're either a winner or you're nowhere. Still, it will be difficult for Kalla to put aside his personal ambitions and lead Golkar to make the rational choice.

[Longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, Gary LaMoshi has written for Slate and Salon.com, and works a counselor for Writing Camp (www.writingcamp.net). He first visited Indonesia in 1994 and has tracking its progress ever since.]

Consumption boosts growth

Jakarta Post Editorial - April 13, 2009

We believe Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati's preliminary estimate that Indonesia's economy could have expanded by 4.6 percent in the first quarter was by no means dressed up to make the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono government look good in the July presidential election.

The final figure on the first quarter gross domestic product will be announced by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) only next month. But the provisional figure, which was quite impressive compared to miserable economic contractions in most other countries, including in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, seem realistic, based on actual developments.

Domestic consumption has indeed become the main locomotive of the economy because exports, according to BPS, contracted by almost 35 percent in January and February down to US$14.23 billion.

Private consumption, which now accounts for more than 70 percent of GDP, has received a significant boost from several factors.

The 15 percent increase in the pay of an estimated 5.5 million state employees, the fuel price cut in December and the $1 billion in waived payroll taxes, value added tax and import duties – as part of the $6.1 billion fiscal stimulus designed for pump priming this year – has already contributed greatly to strengthening consumer purchasing power.

On top of that, the enforcement of the new income tax law starting in January also helped to increase the disposable income of taxpayers because the law increased tax allowances for low- income people and lowered the highest rate on personal income tax from 35 to 30 percent.

The law also simplified the structure of corporate income tax from three bands with the highest rate at 30 percent, down to a simpler single flat rate of 28 percent.

Yet more significant was the big spending on political campaigns by the estimated 1.5 million candidates and 38 national political parties contesting in the April 9 legislative elections for the 18,440 seats in the national and regional legislatures and the regional representative council.

Many producers of packaged meals, processed foods and various other consumer goods, as well as transportation and advertising companies reported unusually high increases in sales turnovers, especially over the past two months.

We believe domestic consumption will remain vigorous in the second quarter due to more massive spending on nation-wide political campaigning in June as political parties will again go all out to reach the 171 million voters to gain support for their candidates in the July presidential election.

Another $1 billion is being injected into the rural economy for infrastructure development as part of the $6.1 billion stimulus.

In yet another boost to the purchasing power of millions of consumers, the international price of crude palm oil has recovered strongly to $700/ton, from as low as $350/ton early this year. This increase represents a quite significant bonus for domestic consumption, given the country's position as the world's largest palm oil producer with an estimated output of 18 million tons this year, especially since many producers are small farmers.

On the monetary side, Bank Indonesia has steadily lowered its benchmark interest rate to as low as 7.50 percent at present.

So all in all, barring major election violence that could set off speculative attacks on the rupiah, our economy will probably be able to expand by at least 4 percent during the first semester, – even though this is when we expect the most adverse impacts of the global financial crisis and downturn to hit us.

Basking in a bilateral bubble as reality gets airbrushed

Sydney Morning Herald - April 10, 2009

Hamish McDonald – During the 34 or so years of Soeharto's reign in Indonesia, outside analysts watched with diminishing expectations for signs of his grip weakening and rival power centres emerging. The consensus was that succession would happen inside the regime and we would end up with someone pretty much like him – a Javanese, moderately Muslim, army general – and not much would change.

In the end Soeharto was forced out by his own excesses of cronyism and nepotism in the currency collapse caused by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. His successor did come from within the regime, but it was not the suave Javanese, Muslim military chief, General Wiranto, but the vice-president, B.J. Habibie.

He was Muslim, but a civilian aeronautical engineer from Makassar, who took bold steps to break up the centralised, manipulated pseudo-democracy of Soeharto's New Order. He was followed by a half-blind Muslim cleric from East Java, Gus Dur, and a part-Balinese housewife, Megawati Sukarnoputri.

In 2004, by free elections rather than a coup, the country finally got a Javanese, Muslim, army general as president: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Ironically, a lot of Indonesians and foreign governments see him as Indonesia's best hope of deepening its secular democracy, and steering it away from creeping Islamism or resurgent militarism. If his Democratic Party comes out strongest from yesterday's parliamentary elections, Yudhoyono is well positioned for the presidential poll in July.

Canberra will be hoping for this outcome. Its officials have been basking in one of the sunniest periods in the history of bilateral relations, notwithstanding Australia's continuing adverse travel advisories, the arrival of Papuan asylum seekers, the tabloid circus around the Schapelle Corby case, and the Bali Nine death sentences.

Yet the Rudd Government's recent effort at generating more ideas and interest in this critical foreign relationship has turned out a flat performance. The two-day conference in February, under Chatham House rules (no identification of speakers in reports) has resulted in a lacklustre "outcomes report" that shows what a bubble our policy-makers live in.

This largely flowed from the decision to make it a bilateral exercise from the start, instead of an Australian brainstorm first. Foreign ministries were put in charge, resulting in a diplomatic choice of subjects and tone, and delegates selected to keep everything polite (including, somewhat embarrassingly for his dissident credentials, your columnist).

The outcomes report, filtered by the foreign ministries and written up by the Lowy Institute's Malcolm Cook, laments that on the Australian side, the media, business and students have not "kept pace with the new era of government-to-government relations". The media looks in the "rearview mirror" at old grievances, business is reluctant to trade and invest, and students are turning away from Indonesian language. The remedy is largely to spread the word about "positive" changes in Indonesia.

"Apart from a few minor tweaks to suit the times, it is same old same old," says Deakin University's Damien Kingsbury, among the many younger Indonesia specialists not included in the conference. "Nothing new but, looking at those who contributed to the gab-fest, that is as expected, which is no doubt why they were so selectively invited."

The Australian Defence Force Academy's Clinton Fernandes was also excluded. "It's not a rearview mirror but a blindfold," he says. "The report makes no mention of General Prabowo Subianto, who is banned from the US because of his criminal actions and is running for president in 2009. Nor of General Wiranto, who bears command responsibility for crimes against humanity and is also running for president. Their Indonesian critics were not invited. Attendees were handpicked so that anyone who disagreed with the holy orthodoxy was excluded."

Sydney University's Adrian Vickers, another non-invitee, sees a lack of concrete investment proposals in areas such as the arts and education. "There is a big hole here," Vickers says. "I'm just back from the UK where gamelan is part of the national school music curriculum, and the London Symphony Orchestra supports a gamelan!

"And the travel advisory is a cop-out, since it begs the question of why Indonesia has such a high level when other countries that have similar terrorism issues [India, Britain, Israel] do not," he says. "A simple mechanism for getting more traffic between countries would be to make it easier to get study and research visas to Indonesia. As one colleague put it, the system at the moment is geared towards ensuring income for a number of Indonesians, but is not helpful for things like student exchanges."

Deakin's Scott Burchill says: "An anodyne summary which expresses frustration with the media and the general population who don't understand the importance of the relationship in the same way the elites who attended the meeting do.

"If only the population could rise to their lofty ethical and intellectual standards, all the problems would disappear. Meanwhile, no mention of crimes in East Timor and West Papua please – that would have been bad manners. The meeting of minds proved one thing – how unnecessary the meeting actually was."

Is government the roadblock? If all the interesting things are airbrushed – unrest in Papua, fragile autonomy in Aceh, military resistance to Yudhoyono reforms, unresolved human rights cases, the predatory maritime boundary pushed by Canberra on Indonesia and East Timor in the 1970s, uncertain laws and corruption, aviation safety – no wonder students are turning away from Indonesian studies, and the "relationship" gets periodically disrupted when reality pops the elite bubble.

Religious leaders: Islamic parties out of touch

Jakarta Globe - April 10, 2009

Nurfika Osman – It's been a long time since 1955. The failure by Islam-based political parties to make any significant headway in national legislative elections since the Masyumi and Nahdlatul Ulema parties finished second and third 54 years ago continued in Thursday's polls, with religious leaders saying their policies were unclear and they simply weren't trusted by voters.

Unofficial quick counts by several groups, including the National Survey Circle, showed that the Prosperous Justice Party, or PKS, finished fourth with 7.37 percent of the vote, followed by the United Development Party, or PPP, the National Mandate Party, or PAN, and the National Awakening Party, or PKB. The PKS didn't fare any better than in 2004, PAN did slightly worse and the PKB, weakened by an internal rift, plummeted by around 50 percent.

Masdar F. Mas'udi, deputy chairman of Nahdlatul Ulema, the country's largest Islamic organization, said voter support for parties that identify themselves as Muslim continues to remain marginal because voters are unsure about their ability to deal with important issues.

"They are still asking what kinds of new things these parties can give to the nation, and they are unsure whether religious-based parties can do anything better than other parties," Masdar said.

He also said the Islamic parties' stated programs didn't resonate with grassroots voters.

"Their concepts are not clear and if we are talking about Islam, we should know that the root of Islam is justice," he said. "And these parties do not fully pay attention to the basic issues of justice such as access to the economy, education and health care."

Masdar said some Islamic parties were preoccupied with symbolic religious issues like the antipornography law and attempts to ban traditional jaipong dance in West Java Province. "The fact that they ban jaipong and supported the porn bill led to the decline of their voting figures in this election," Masdar said. "People who love jaipong and believe in pluralism did not like it. So, the question is: Where will they take this nation?"

Amidhan, chairman of the Indonesian Council of Ulema, said that there were only minor ideological differences among the Islamic and nationalist-based parties and that the policies of groups like the PKS and the PPP weren't in line with what voters wanted.

"Yes, the parties have an Islamic-based ideology, but then they also subscribe to Pancasila," he said. "People expect they can bring something new, but then their policies are almost the same as the non-Islamic parties."

Sunset on Suharto era

The Australian - April 9, 2009

Rowan Callick – Following a raucous and colourful campaign season – with most candidates singing on stage – 240 million Indonesians will today start electing their next government by choosing a new national parliament and local legislatures.

The first round of the presidential election follows on July 8, with a run-off, if required, on September8. As far as Australia's future security is concerned, there are few more important events on the calendar.

Just how much our big neighbour matters to us was brought home on October 12, 2002, when 88 Australians were killed by terrorist bombs in Bali: the most casualties caused by a single event since World War II, only superseded by the bushfires in Victoria on February 7.

Since the Bali bombings, the Indonesian Government's determination and intense co-operation between the police and other officials of the two countries have succeeded in defusing the extremists' threat to set the archipelago aflame with Islamist fervour.

Indonesia has defied its critics and set a rare example for the rest of the Islamic world by rapidly developing into an effective democracy within a decade of the dictator Suharto's downfall in 1998, at which point the country threatened to crash and burn.

This election is the last in which players from the Suharto era will play a prominent role. It will determine whether the country looks ahead, towards a new, internationalist generation of leaders and policies, or back to the deal-making between powerful men in rooms reeking of cigarette smoke.

The outcome that would be best for Indonesia – and Australia – is a second five-year presidential term for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and a doubling of the vote for his Democratic Party.

It hasn't always been obvious to Australians how much we have at stake in our neighbour's development. Australia had become accustomed to weighing its international relations by standards other than proximity.

Paul Keating developed a close and respectful relationship with Suharto and signed a defence treaty with him, but the latter's attitude to Australia appeared ambiguous and it was only after the end of the Suharto era that broader relations between the two countries moved to a warmer level.

In 1995, the pragmatist John Howard, then leader of the Opposition, helped articulate, in an Asialink lecture, how to bridge the gap between the two priorities of Australian foreign policy. "We do not believe that Australia faces some kind of exclusive choice between our past and our future, between our history and our geography," he said.

"Australia must meet the regional challenges of the future, in Asia and elsewhere, with the flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances but with pride in our history, our values and our institutions. The dynamically successful economies of East Asia have done precisely that."

Through the downfall of Suharto, the bloody emergence of East Timor as a nation, and the Bali and other bombings, Howard steadily upgraded the relationship until the Australian embassy in Jakarta became our largest overseas mission.

Howard and Yudhoyono developed an effective partnership that began in the fraught period when the relationship might have unravelled in the wake of Bali. On the first anniversary of the tragedy, Yudhoyono – who was then minister for political and security affairs, with responsibility for tracking down the killers and preventing an explosion of extremism – flew to Bali and delivered a speech that moved many to tears.

He said of the 202 victims: "They were our sons, our daughters, our fathers and mothers, our brothers and sisters, our cousins, our best friends and our soul mates. And they were all innocents."

Kevin Rudd, who is well-informed on Indonesia, having visited it on many occasions before becoming Prime Minister, has consolidated the relationship. He met Yudhoyono seven times last year. "This is a very broad and vital relationship for us," he says.

Following Suharto's downfall, Yudhoyono quit the military in 1999, retiring as a general, and joined the cabinet of president Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) as mines and energy minister. He remained in the cabinet when Megawati Sukarnoputri took over as president two years later.

His Democratic Party – the first new party to emerge effectively on the national stage since Suharto – won 7.5 per cent of the vote in the 2004 election.

Its first big test comes today. If the party can score 20 per cent in the parliamentary poll, Yudhoyono can seek re-election without the need for a compromising coalition partner.

Any presidential representative of a party that obtains less than 20 per cent of the vote must cobble together a coalition of groups whose tallies add up to more than the cut-off. And a party needs to score more than 2.5 per cent of the nationwide vote – for which 171 million people have registered – to gain parliamentary representation.

In today's election, candidates from 38 parties are contesting 560 seats in the national parliament, 1998 seats in provincial legislatures and 15,750 seats in city legislatures.

Eight years ago, Indonesia devolved substantial authority beyond the 34 provinces, down to 410 rural districts and 98 cities. But the resulting structures have not yet received full parliamentary authorisation, and so some legal powers remain in limbo. It has been almost impossible to develop resources projects as a result.

The most successful religious group in contemporary political life has been the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which advocates a central role for Islam in public life. It won 7.3 per cent of the vote in 2004.

It has young, well-educated leaders, and attracted followers at first through its strong stance against corruption. But it has gone on to form voting alliances with Golkar, the party most associated with the Suharto era. And in reaching out for voters beyond the religiously aligned minority, it risks losing that pious core.

Two former military figures closely linked to the Suharto years, with question marks still hanging over them in the context of human rights, are leading new parties into the election: Wiranto and Prabowo Subianto, who grappled with each other for control of the military during the turmoil they fostered in the late 1990s.

In the end, Suharto's successor B.J. Habibie chose Wiranto. But Habibie failed to fulfil his expected role by stepping aside for the next strongman. From that point on, the military retreated from political power and this election is the first in which the army, known as the TNI, won't obtain reserved seats in the legislature.

Wiranto, who was the Golkar presidential candidate five years ago, now leads Hanura, or People's Conscience Party. Prabowo, a former head of the infamous Kopassus special forces unit and a former son-in-law of Suharto, leads Gerindra or Great Indonesia Movement, a party bankrolled by his billionaire brother.

Neither of the parties is expected to obtain more than 4 per cent of the vote.

Golkar is led by Yudhoyono's Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, a businessman prominent in eastern Indonesia but who lacks national appeal. Former president Megawati, the daughter of the nation's founder Sukarno, remains the leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP).

The National Awakening Party (PKB) founded by Wahid, is now led by Muhaimin Iskandar, while the United Development Party (PPP) is effectively run by the country's largest Muslim group, the moderate Nahdatul Ulama. Both did relatively well in 2004 but are expected to poll less strongly today.

Tim Lindsey, director of the Asian Law Centre at the University of Melbourne and chairman of the Australia-Indonesia Institute, says the skilful advertising and campaigning of a well-heeled player such as Prabowo does not necessarily convert into votes any longer, such is the increasing sophistication and scepticism of the electorate.

Voters, he says, aren't interested any more in "old stories from yesterday's men" such as Wiranto, who was permanently tainted by the events in East Timor.

No one, Lindsey says, wants to see the military back in power; that includes the TNI, which "is no longer everyone's enemy, no longer has to run the country, but can keep making money".

And it is the smallest army, in terms of population, in the Asia-Pacific region: 300,000 strong, with only a limited capacity to act. "It would have to remove the legislature before taking control," Lindsey says, "because that has succeeded it as the most powerful institution in the country."

Military analysts say the army could only hold three large cities at any one time, and then with great difficulty in the face of popular opposition. "They have a general in charge of the country anyway, in SBY. He's definitely not the TNI's plaything, but he does understand their issues," Lindsey says.

Throughout his decade in politics, Yudhoyono has been accused of being indecisive, although controlling only a few seats in parliament has not helped. But he has presided over a return to sustained economic growth and has introduced some tough and overdue reforms, including removing the subsidy on fuel that has for long distorted the Indonesian economy, compensating poor families with cash handouts.

Indonesia, Lindsey says, is in the throes of abandoning half a century of communal alliances and political connections based on religion and race. "Instead, they are asking: 'Are the leaders clean?' and 'What are their platforms?' Party machines can no longer deliver fixed blocks of votes."

Yudhoyono understands how global issues and leaders can be brought into the domestic political arena to great personal benefit. US President Barack Obama, who lived in Indonesia as a child, is viewed as a hero and Yudhoyono's interaction with him at the G20 summit in London was a big electoral plus. At the same time, he has to guard against the perception that he is in Canberra's pocket.

"The government-to-government relationship between our countries is the best ever, no question," Lindsey says. "And among institutions, businesses and individuals involved in the relationship, it's great, it's a boom time, though the Australian travel advisory does put something of a dampener on exchange opportunities."

The importance of the relationship is palpable, says veteran Indonesia expert Jamie Mackie. In a recent paper for the Lowy Institute, he says Australia needs to be able to count on Indonesia's co-operation with us, not opposition, in matters of regional and international politics, and also on issues arising from our contiguity in the Timor-Arafura Sea area, such as fisheries, quarantine, border protection and the maritime boundary. "An impoverished, stagnant or unstable Indonesia could result in severe problems for us," Mackie says.

[Rowan Callick is The Australian's Asia-Pacific editor.]

Indonesia's ex-generals seek comeback - By vote

South China Morning Post - April 8, 2009

Fabio Scarpello – After the fall of president Suharto in 1998, Indonesia's powerful military found itself sidelined by enthusiasm for the nation's nascent democracy.

But more than a decade later, many former military officers are again vying for roles in the Indonesian power game – this time via the ballot box.

Hundreds of former officers have shed their uniforms for political colours and will be seeking election in tomorrow's nationwide polls, raising concerns about their motives and goals.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Centre for Political and Regional Studies said people should be alert, but not alarmed. "Previously, the TNI's [military] political involvement was institutionalised, but now it is on an individual basis. It is quite different," she said.

Retired officers brought with them a professionalism often lacking among civilian politicians, but they also brought a mindset that might lead to impatience with the democratic process, she said. "If too many of them are elected to parliament, there is a risk that this mindset could influence the overall political culture."

Bantarto Bantoro, director of the Institute for Defence and Security Studies, said former officers had every right to take part in the election, but they must demonstrate they had left their militarist outlook behind. "They have to show commitment to the reform agenda, which includes reform of the TNI."

He also called for monitoring anyone who might try to exploit the presence of former officers in parliament. "There are many people who seek support from these ex-military figures, possibly including the current military leadership."

TNI chief General Djoko Santoso recently raised eyebrows for a politically laden comment made to the Kompas newspaper, where he warned that the elections would be fraught with threats that could "disturb national stability".

Among these threats, he indicated the presence of too many political parties, a long campaign period and too many candidates. His comments were interpreted as a sign of the difficulties by the TNI to disengage fully from the political process.

Defence Minister Juwono Sudarsono has, however, said that the military is committed to helping establish good governance based on democratic principles.

"It means the military's role must be decreased, while civilians must be given broader ones through non-governmental organisations, political parties, local governments and police departments," he said.

Tapol, a UK-based organisation that monitors human rights in Indonesia, says the influx of retired officers in the election is the third wave of military involvement in politics.

Their political aspirations later re-emerged with the Golkar party, established to counter the growing influence of the PKI, the Indonesian Communist Party. Golkar became the political machine of Suharto after he seized power in October 1965.

"For more than three decades, Suharto then presided over a military dictatorship whose key doctrine was dwifungsi, or dual function, which granted the military the right to play a role in politics. Soldiers were not allowed to vote, but generals were allotted up to 100 seats in the national and regional parliaments," Tapol writes.

Among the main parties, former officers have a secondary role in Golkar and in former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, but they maintain a stronger presence in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party. This party is chaired by retired colonel Hadi Utomo and sees retired major general Nur Aman and retired police commissioner general Nurfaizi sitting on the board.

Former officers are also present in the Islamic parties, especially in the Star Crescent Party, which has three on its board. Some generals, such as Wiranto and Prabowo Subianto, have established their own parties as a platform for presidential ambitions.

Indonesia holds fast to secular politics

Washington Post - April 9, 2009

Islamist groups expected to take back seat in vote

Robin Shulman, Depok (Indonesia) – Ismi Safeya is a student at an Islamic school who veils her hair for modesty, prays five times a day and is inspired by the idea of a society based on Muslim principles.

But when the 18-year-old casts her vote for the first time in parliamentary elections Thursday, she won't vote for an Islamist party.

"The wisest choice is a government not dependent on Islamic law," she said, acknowledging the religious diversity of Indonesia and arguing that rules must be fair for everyone. "Islam actually guides our lives, but it doesn't seem to be shown in the way we vote."

Like Safeya, most voters here in the world's largest majority- Muslim country are expected to cast their ballots for secular parties. As political Islam gains strength globally, it has achieved little electoral success in Indonesia.

Though polls show Indonesians becoming more religiously observant in their private lives, surveys also suggest this shift will not translate into significant support for Islamist politics in parliamentary elections Thursday or in presidential elections scheduled for July.

"More and more young Muslims are interested in basic bread-and- butter issues," said Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono in an interview in his office in Jakarta, the capital. "Parties that advocate for sharia, or Islamic law, do not get much play."

One of the reasons is that Islamist parties have won local elections in the past. But instead of building strength for the parties' ideals, experiments with Islamic law have produced a backlash. Meanwhile, mainstream parties have co-opted some positions of their Islamist opponents. Religious positions have seeped into the national consensus, neutralizing them as campaign platforms for the Islamist parties.

"The categories are blurred right now," said Andi Mallarangeng, a spokesman for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a member of the secular Democratic Party. "To win, you have to move to the center." The center, he said, fuses moderate Islamic ideals with programs to deliver such economic basics as jobs and food.

"Islamic political parties exist and will always have a niche in this electorate," Mallarangeng said. "But they're not going to dominate."

In the last national election, in 2004, Islamist parties, broadly defined, received about 40 percent of the vote. This time, they are projected to receive only about 24 percent, according to a poll conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute. Secular parties are expected to win about 67 percent of the vote, although the polls have been off in the past. Not all of the Islamist parties advocate sharia rule, and many are backing away from such platforms.

A big part of the challenge for religious-themed parties is the extraordinary diversity of this archipelagic nation, which is made up of more than 14,000 islands and includes tolerance among its core principles. About 90 percent of people in this, the world's fourth most populous country, are Muslim. But they practice a unique, syncretic brand of Southeast Asian Islam. Traditions include banging a cowhide drum alongside the call of the muezzin to summon people to prayer, a belief in neighborhood spirits and rituals such as one in which new fathers of baby girls dress up as women.

Thursday's elections feature 38 national parties competing for Indonesia's 550-seat parliament, a regional representation council, and provincial, county and city assemblies. Parties or coalitions that get 20 percent or more of the parliamentary seats may nominate a candidate for presidential elections scheduled for July 9.

The campaigns have been going strong for weeks, with processions of activists on mopeds waving banners and chanting party slogans in the streets of Jakarta day and night. Indonesians who show up at rallies often get gifts – T-shirts, lunches or even 20,000 rupiah notes, worth about $2.

Corruption is the biggest problem Indonesians cite in their government, and in the last election, that was part of the appeal of the religious parties, which are traditionally seen as cleaner. But since then, a few representatives of Islamist parties have been tainted by scandal. Some Indonesians say they are disenchanted this time around and will simply not vote.

"We're so disappointed with the leaders," said Shohib Sirri, 21, a student in the English and letters department at the State Islamic University.

During President Suharto's 32-year dictatorship, which ended in 1998, he drew support from Islamist organizations that helped the government round up suspected opponents. Suharto allowed more freedom for Islamic groups than for political ones, and during his last years in power he helped foster a generation of Islamist activists, said Zulkieflimansyah, a member of parliament from the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party.

After the US-backed Suharto fell from power, there was a torrent of repressed political activity, including expressions of radical Islam. The Bali nightclub bombings in 2002, which killed more than 200 people, announced the presence of a violent fringe. Those responsible, from the Indonesian chapter of the transnational organization Jemaah Islamiyah, a group linked to al-Qaeda, were arrested or went into hiding in the Philippines.

In 2004, a law allowed for local elections, and dozens of communities elected officials who experimented with versions of Islamic law – from requiring women to wear a head scarf when working in government offices, to preventing women from being outside alone at night.

But when the rules were imposed, people reacted against them. Many Indonesians were repulsed by the arrests of women waiting for rides to work before the evening shifts at factories, or raids on hotel rooms to catch unmarried people together. The Islamist parties began to back down from talk of Islamic law.

"It's not a vote getter," said James Castle, an analyst of Indonesian politics and economics.

But some see a generational divide between younger Indonesians who are prepared to fuse Islamic values with democracy, and older Indonesians who lived most of their lives under Suharto and now seek Islamic law. "If we don't speak about sharia Islam, we will lose our base," said Zulkieflimansyah, who like many Indonesians goes by one name. He hopes for a country "with democracy in our political system and Islam as our moral code."

Elsewhere, Zulkieflimansyah said, Islamist movements are using violence to protect themselves from undemocratic regimes. "Here it is quite irrelevant," he said. "In Indonesia, the Islamist movements are in government."

Politicians from the ruling party have taken stances designed to curry favor with religious voters, such as backing an anti- pornography bill that was pushed by the Islamist parties and supporting curtailed freedoms of a minority sect of Islam that is not recognized by some religious authorities.

Analysts say that Indonesia shares some attributes with Turkey, where a party rooted in political Islam gained national power, only to experience a setback in recent local elections. Indonesia could also be taking leads from Malaysia, where Islamist parties have not fared well in the past two elections.

"The most important thing is to create jobs and security," said Emy Widijanti, 39, a travel agent, sitting at a table outdoors in a narrow street full of stands selling steaming beef and chicken in peanut sauce. "Indonesia is diverse. Government should protect all religious belief."

A three-legged race in Indonesia

Asia Times - April 8, 2009

Megawati Wijaya, Jakarta – After weeks of raucous rallies and colorful campaigns, an estimated 170 million Indonesians are eligible to cast their votes at Thursday's legislative polls.

With three front-running parties expected to garner well over 50% of the vote combined, the election results will likely spur intense political horse trading in the lead up to July presidential elections, and if held without incident consolidate further the country's recent democratic gains.

Indonesia's democratic exercise, spread out over a 5,000 kilometer wide archipelago, is enormous in scale and complexity. Over 11,000 aspirants are set to compete for 560 positions on the People's Representative Council; another 1,100 plus will run for the 128 seats on the Regional Representatives Council; 112,000 more are scheduled to contest 1,998 total seats at the provincial level People's Representative Council; and no less than 1.5 million will seek election to the 15,750 seats available at the municipality level People's Representative Council.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (SBY) Democratic Party, Vice President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party, and ex-president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) are expected to lead the polls. While surveys and opinion polls anticipate a tight race, Yudhoyono's Democratic Party is predicted to slightly outpace its two main rivals.

A recent voter survey conducted by the Indonesian Research Institute across 33 different provinces from March 27 to April 1 showed that the Democratic Party led the polls with 20.9% of the expected vote, followed by Golkar with 18% and PDI-P with 16.3%. The Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) placed in fourth with 9.5% and the newcomer Gerindra party, led by former soldier Prabowo Subianto, ran next with 5.8%, according to the same survey.

Other polls, including those held by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and the Economic and Social Research, Education and Information Body, also showed the Democratic Party in the lead and expected the party to garner over 20% of the vote. If accurate, it will represent a huge boost from the 7.5% the party received at the 2004 elections, which catapulted Yudhoyono to power at the head of a coalition government that included top vote-getter Golkar.

The Democratic Party's apparent growing popularity, political analysts say, can be attributed to Yudhoyono's solid governing performance. Nearly 39% of the LSI survey's respondents felt that the Yudhoyono-Kalla leadership team had governed well during its five year term. Over 24% of those surveyed said they would vote for the Democratic Party, while 14% indicated they would opt for Kalla's Golkar, the military-linked party of former authoritarian president Suharto who governed for 32 consecutive years.

Since Suharto's fall from power in 1998, Yudhoyono will be the only elected president to serve his or her full five-year term. That underscores the relative political stability he has accomplished and is expected to leverage for votes at the presidential polls in July. His government has earned widespread kudos for its handling of terrorism threats, witnessed in the falling number of big bang incidents since his election. Domestically his recent decision to cut fuel prices to cushion the economic downturn is expected to win some votes at the ballot box, though others feel his administration hasn't done enough to bring down stubbornly high unemployment rates.

At the same time, some contend the Democratic Party has failed to consolidate its political successes at the grass roots level, where both Golkar and PDI-P have fanatical support bases and could win more votes than pollsters predict. Analysts say that's largely because the Democratic Party has grown over-reliant on the president's personality. J Kristiadi, a senior fellow at the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic International Studies, was quoted in the local press saying that the Democratic Party is more a "SBY fan club rather than a political party".

Democratic stigmas

In comparison, Golkar was first established in 1964 and has strong grassroots machinery to get out the vote. The party is known to have strong support in parts of Java, Indonesia's most populated island, as well as the large central and eastern islands of Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua. Golkar has suffered from internal party conflicts, which explained why it failed to win the presidency despite garnering the most votes at the 2004 legislative polls.

This time the party has united behind Kalla's presidential candidacy, though his chances are considered slim because he hails from Sulawesi rather than Java, where all past Indonesian presidents have had their roots. Golkar spokespeople stand firm that the party targets 30% of the legislative vote, even though most surveys project it will garner less than 20%.

PDI-P is expected to win strong support in West and Central Java, according to surveys and past election results. Party leader and former president Megawati seems determined to avoid a repeat of her 2004 presidential election defeat and is known to be lobbying various parties to form a possible coalition led by her PDI-P. Her party stalwarts have been most vocal in criticizing the incumbent government's policies, including the barb that Yudhoyono's policy of cash handouts to poor segments of society has encouraged a national "beggar's mentality".

At the same time, the party faces intensifying internal divisions. Disillusioned by Megawati's 2004 defeat, some PDI-P heavy hitters, such as Laksamana Sukardi and Roy BB Janis, broke away in 2005 to create a new party, Partai Demokrasi Pembaruan (PDP), that some political analysts believe could poach votes from the PDI-P in its traditional strongholds. The PDI-P has agreed to support Megawati as its presidential candidate again, but many believe if she stumbles PDI-P elders will look to change the party's leadership and shift away from a structure centered on her patronage.

Both Golkar and PDI-P are arguably tainted by the stigma that they have their roots in Suharto's authoritarian New Order era and have not genuinely caught the wave of Indonesia's dynamic democratic transition. That perception gained some currency after news circulated of an informal meeting between the two with fellow New Order era party, the United Development Party (PPP), to build a so-called "golden triangle" coalition that would exclude Yudhoyono's Democratic Party.

Those three parties combined, some analysts predict, could capture 50% of the total legislative vote and combine forces to back one heavyweight candidate to challenge Yudhoyono. For his part, the incumbent president is expected to team up with smaller parties to get over the 25% electoral threshold required for a party or coalition to field a presidential candidate.

"A Golkar-PPP-PDI-P coalition may only result in providing presidential nominees, not winning it," asserted Indonesia University's Eep Saefulloh Fatah, a political analyst. "Publicly committing to such coalition, albeit an informal one, may prove to be a liability instead of an asset."

The most recent surveys and polls indicate that around 20% of voters were still undecided days before the polls. These voters could prove decisive in elevating a dark horse candidate, with the PKS and Gerindra Party seen as the mostly likely to pull a ballot box upset. Many analysts have discounted the PKS's chances, but others feel it could still pull an electoral surprise.

While other Islamic-oriented parties have appealed to religion to win votes among devout Muslims, PKS has for this election bid to overhaul its image towards a more inclusive, secular party. In its simply worded campaign advertisements, the party uses slogans such as PKS = Partai Kita Semua ("Party of All of Us"); its recent television spots say that regardless of who is nominated as president, PKS should be a party of choice.

Meanwhile, the Gerindra Party has leveraged party leader Prabowo's oratory skills and populist touch at the rural grass roots level to effectively position the new party as a deep- pocketed electoral underdog. Ratings agency AC Nielsen recently estimated the party had spent Rp8 billion (US$700,000) per month – much higher than Golkar's Rp5 billion, PKS's Rp2 billion, or PDI-P's Rp 1.5 billion – on mass media advertisements on TV and print.

Gerindra's nationally televised ads have set the party apart by specifically outlining its proposed policies. The party is also expected to get a big lift from the endorsement of former president and leader of Indonesia's largest Muslim organization, Abdurrahman Wahid; he recently called on his Nahdlatul Ulama's 30 million plus followers to vote for Gerindra candidates.

Whether the two smaller parties can catch the big three still seems unlikely, but they could place stronger than many anticipate. Academics Dwight King, Anies Baswedan and Nicolaus Harjanto in 2005 published research which found distinct continuities in voting trends in the post-Suharto era, with certain districts choosing similar types of parties from one election to the next. The research found that in the 1999 and 2004 elections, 60% of the electorate voted for secular- pluralistic parties, 38% for Islamic parties and 2% for minority-oriented parties.

Indonesians are traditionally not "border crossers", asserts political analyst Fatah. "The biggest pie still belongs to secular-plural oriented parties, and many parties have realized that they have to market themselves to appeal to this group." Those who fail to make that adjustment will likely be left out in the electoral cold.

Surveys show that apart from the five major parties, only four others are expected to cross the 2.5% of the popular vote threshold required for their representatives to take seats at the House of Representatives in Jakarta. That streamlining provision, Fatah and others say, could cost several qualified and locally popular candidates their chairs at the national parliament and leave millions of voters feeling underrepresented in Indonesia's fast evolving democracy.

[Megawati Wijaya is a Singapore-based journalist. She may be contacted at megawati.wijaya@gmail.com.]

Indonesian election campaigns get off to a limp start

Direct Action - April, 2009

Max Lane – The official election campaigning period for the Indonesian national, provincial and district legislatures started on March 1 and will last until April 5. There is supposed to be a three-day period of non-campaigning immediately before the April 9 elections. Some 100,000 candidates from 44 parties are standing for seats in national, provincial and district legislatures.

Parties, or coalitions of parties, that win at least 112 seats in the 560-member national parliament or 25% of the popular vote may nominate candidates for the powerful presidency, to be elected in July. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote then, there will be a run-off in September.

Campaign rallies have been held by most of the more moneyed parties, but turnouts are low compared to previous elections. The largest rallies so far have been those in support of the Democratic Party (PD), headed by incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The PD is picking up support among the middle class and better-off workers, as a result of two decreases in fuel prices Yudhyono has brought in, following the international drop in oil prices in the second half of last year. Even if people think his government has done little to improve most people's lives, polls also show that some voter support is flowing his way due to the sense of predictability associated with his government.

In some areas, rallies for Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) are reported to be about the same size, but they are not as widespread. Even in what is considered the PDIP's strongest area, Bali, its rallies are reported to have been of similar size to those of the PD. While media reports and parties' own claims sometimes give figures of up to 60,000 at a rally, local left-wing activists say that even PD rallies, with all the advantages of incumbency, rarely get above 20,000, even in Jakarta. They report that some rallies called by the smaller parties have had nobody other than party officials turn up to them. Some rallies in the last days of the campaign have been slightly larger, but the pull has been the line-up of pop singers and media celebrities and not the politicians, who make sure they limit their time on the stage.

Even an extremely well-funded and professionally slick media campaign by former general Prabowo Subianto's newly formed Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), has not resulted in rallies anywhere near as large as Yudhoyono's. This is despite an all-out campaign by Gerindra to portray itself as being for Indonesia's poor.

Of course, all of Indonesia's pro-capitalist parties try to present themselves as being for the interests of the poor. This is because, as Lili Romli, a political analyst at the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI), told the Inter-Press Service on March 31, most Indonesian voters are poor and "want a leader who will be able to deal with their daily problems, like food, education, affordable medication". However, "Indonesian leaders understand that removing subsidies on basic items like food and fuel was not a pro-poor policy, but the past government", with the support of the other elite parties in parliament, "did it anyway because the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank wanted it".

Mood of abstention

The limp start of the election campaign reflects the strong mood toward abstention among voters. All the signs are that voter abstention – known as golput – will be high. The April 2 Jakarta Post reported that the General Elections Commission (KPU), the independent institution mandated by law to organise general and local elections, was worried there will be a low voter turnout in the national legislative election. According to a survey by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) in early March, only 13% of eligible voters said they were very likely to vote and 84% said they were only somewhat likely to vote. When asked about their political preference, 30% said they supported Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, 18.8% backed the PDI-P and 15.2% supported the Golkar Party, the party of former dictator Suharto. Gerindra was predicted to win only 6.5%.

Prabowo, who is considered by most human rights organisations to be behind the 1997-98 disappearances and killings of student and People's Democratic Party (PRD) activists, is waging an energetic campaign of nationalist demagogy through the mass media. His media advertising, financed by his billionaire brother, includes slogans such as "Indonesia can arise not just because of me, but if the nation believes in itself". Other advertising slogans emphasise the need to "buy Indonesian" or to patronise local traditional markets. Increasingly Prabowo has been trying to project himself as another Sukarno – the left-leaning, anti- imperialist first president of Indonesia. This has had some success in attracting high-profile recruits to his new party. In January, for example, well-known mystic Permadi, quit his parliamentary seat and the PDIP to join Gerindra, stating that he had found the "second Sukarno".

The scale of Prabowo's advertising has clearly started to unnerve some of his rival elite politicians. Former president Abdurrahman Wahid declared support for Prabowo at a rally in Surabaya, where Wahid's support base is strong. Then, after being strongly criticised by many of his liberal-democratic supporters, Wahid withdrew his support for Prabowo. However, the increasing profile of Prabowo has not resulted in any notable divisions within the elite, despite Prabowo's activities threatening a revival of Suharto-era style politics. Prabowo is on record as saying that Suharto's methods of rule were the most suitable to Indonesia.

On March 25, Prabowo indicated his interest in a coalition of what is being referred to in the Indonesian media as the "Suharto-era parties": Golkar, the PDIP and the Islamic United Development Party (PPP). Other smaller parties have also been reported as flirting with Prabowo as a possible presidential or vice-presidential candidate. Last December, Zarnubi Bursah, chairperson of the Star Reformation Party (PBR), was quoted in the press as saying that the PBR felt it had the same mission and vision as Gerindra. During the first week of campaigning in March, local left activists reported that the PBR and Gerindra were campaigning together in the Sumatran city of Medan. On April 2, Megawati was also reported in the media as opening the door to a coalition with Prabowo's Gerindra.

Coalition speculation

The discussion that continues to dominate the campaign of the elite parties above all others regards what coalitions will be formed after the election to support what combinations of presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Every possible combination is being discussed: the Yogyakarta sultan with Prabowo; Megawati with Prabowo; Yudhoyono with Islamic fundamentalist Hidayat Nur Wahid; current Vice-President Jusuf Kala with former Jakarta governor and retired general Sutiyoso (who has his own small party) – the list goes on and on.

One former high-profile politician, Amien Rais, indicated that he knew which way the popular sentiment was flowing when he recently made a speech saying that all the talk of coalitions was at the expense of any discussion of policies to solve the people's problems. However, the lack of debate over policies among Indonesia's political elite is because there is little that ideologically divides them. As the April 2 British Economist observed, "So thin is the ideological divide, for example, that the two main rival presidential candidates could be the incumbent and his deputy. Asked what Golkar stands for, Burhanuddin Napitupulu, a leading party strategist, seems flummoxed. 'Prosperity and nationalism', he eventually comes up with."

Most of the left groups, including the Political Committee of the Poor-People's Democratic Party (KPRM-PRD), the Indonesian Struggle Centre and the Working Peoples Union as well as the most active alliance of progressive unions, the Workers Challenge Alliance, advocate abstention by voters from the elections. On March 14, around 300 workers from the Jabotabek (Jakarta metropolitan area) Workers Struggle Federation and the Congress of Indonesian Trade Union Alliances demonstrated against the elections. They shouted: "The 2009 elections are not people's elections" and "Overthrow the elite; the people will rule". Participating in the rally were delegates from the Indonesian Transport Workers Struggle Union and the Workers Struggle Solidarity Group.

Similar actions have taken place in other cities in Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. Most of the left groups are active inside these organisations. Some had earlier formed groups that tried to register to participate in the elections but were blocked by the onerous provisions in laws passed by the current parliament. There are talks between the left groups about further actions before the April 9 elections as well as about possible joint actions on other issues after the elections. The KPRM-PRD and groups that it is working closely with are planning to hold coordinated protest actions in several cities just before election day.