Aceh

Aceh war leaves 14,000 widows

Jakarta Post - September 24, 2004

Banda Aceh -- The continuing armed conflict in Aceh has cost the lives of husbands of 14,000 women in the province over the past 15 years, according to one agency.

The provincial women's empowerment bureau also said the conflict had left 58,127 orphans. "To help the women support their children we have provided them with psychological counseling as well as vocational training that they will need to earn money," the bureau's head Lailisma Sofyati said on Thursday.

Due to its limited budget, the program could only start in 2001 and has so far assisted 760 women, she added.

The Aceh administration is cooperating with the Family Crisis Centre, the Peduli Anak Bangsa Foundation and the Syiah Kuala University in running the program.

GAM sees continued war even with SBY as president

Associated Press - September 21, 2004

Jakarta -- A leader of the insurgents fighting Indonesian rule in Aceh province said Tuesday he expects the war to continue even if a former peace negotiator is elected as Indonesia's new president.

With over half of the votes counted from Monday's presidential election, former security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is almost certain to become Indonesia's next president. Official results will be announced on October 5.

Yudhoyono was instrumental in arranging the internationally mediated peace talks that resulted in a six-month cease-fire in the province on the northern tip of Sumatra island in 2003. However, the peace process collapsed after a faction of hardline generals convinced President Megawati Sukarnoputri to impose martial law and arrest a group of negotiators from the Free Aceh movement which has been fighting for independence since 1976.

"Yudhoyono is well-educated and he understands the political impact and implications of dialogue, but he is still a military man and thinks militarily," Bakhtiar Abdullah, a spokesman for the rebels, said in a telephone interview from Stockholm.

Indonesia's longest-running and bloodiest conflict has caused the deaths of at least 15,000 people in the past 28 years.

"Whatever happens in Jakarta is irrelevant to the people of Aceh because they are still getting killed, tortured and oppressed every day. Prominent figures are being killed, our negotiators have been arrested and given long jail terms or banished," said Bakhtiar who, along with other Aceh leaders, lives in exile in Sweden. "The situation in the field has not changed and it will not change," he said.

The war in the province of 4 million people has been going on intermittently since 1870, when Dutch colonial troops occupied the independent sultanate. The latest round of fighting began in 1976, and the rebels are now demanding a UN-supervised independence referendum akin to the one that ended Indonesian rule in East Timor in 1999.

The Indonesian military recently vowed to step up anti-guerrilla operations, and has promised that rebel strength would be reduced by 75% by the end of this year. At least 2,200 people have been killed since Jakarta launched its latest offensive in May 2003.

Bakhtiar said the separatists were willing to negotiate but only under certain conditions. "How can you have dialogue when there is a war going on? How can you talk about peace and wage war at the same time?" he asked.

Indonesian and international human rights organizations say most of the victims in Aceh are innocent villagers caught up in army sweeps through the countryside. They have also warned that the killings by the military are fostering resentment against Jakarta and generating greater support for secession.

Yudhoyono has publicly rejected any possibility of allowing the oil-and gas-rich province to secede from the sprawling archipelago nation. Nevertheless, international mediators who participated in the stalled talks say they expect the peace process to resume under his administration.

Susilo calls for peace in Aceh

Associated Press - September 22, 2004

Jakarta -- Indonesian presidential front-runner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Wednesday called for a peaceful end to Indonesia's bloodiest internal conflict, the 28-year separatist war in Aceh province.

The former general and security chief in President Megawati Soekarnoputri's administration negotiated a short-lived peace deal with the Free Aceh Movement in 2003. The deal collapsed when Megawati sided with hardline generals who launched an offensive in May last year that has left at least 2,200 people dead but has done little to end the insurgency.

Susilo has publicly rejected any possibility of allowing the oil and gas-rich province to secede from the sprawling archipelago nation. But on Wednesday, he told a group of teachers visiting his home on the outskirts of Jakarta that he would work to settle the conflict by peaceful means.

"Let us not just go ahead with the military operation," Susilo said. "Our country must remain united and on that there is no compromise. But [the conflict] must be resolved in a fair manner and as peacefully as possibly."

With 93 million of the estimated 125 million votes counted on Wednesday, Susilo was leading with 61 percent while Megawati had 39 percent, a ccording to the General Election Commission. Final results are expected in the next few days.

On Tuesday, leaders of the Free Aceh Movement said they expected the war to continue regardless of who wins the Indonesian elections. "Whatever happens in Jakarta is irrelevant to the people of Aceh because they are still getting killed, tortured and oppressed every day," rebel spokesman Bakhtiar Abdullah said.

Ex-rebels start nationalism course

Jakarta Post - September 22, 2004

Banda Aceh -- The Aceh government started on Tuesday its third "re-education" course in nationalism for former separatist rebels who had been captured or surrendered during the one-year military crackdown on the province. The course involves 340 former rebels who were previously in military jails.

"The [ex-rebels] will learn about Indonesia and nationalism, while also attending vocational courses during the program. They need to have these skills and knowledge before returning to the community," Aceh deputy governor Azwar Abubakar said.

During the past year, 1,681 former rebels have taken the course since military operations to quash rebels began in Aceh in May last year.

Dossier on Aceh shooting submitted

Jakarta Post - September 22, 2004

Nani Afrida, Banda Aceh -- The case file on First Lt. Simorangkir, a member of the Navy Military Police who shot five fellow soldiers in late August, has been submitted to the Military Court in Aceh for prosecution.

The commander of the Iskandar Muda Military Command's Military Police, Col. Bakir P., said in Banda Aceh on Tuesday: "Based on medical examinations, First Lt. Simorangkir has been found to be suffering from severe depression."

Simorangkir shot five soldiers from the Indonesian Military Headquarters who were on duty with him at the Neusu Jaya Military Base in Banda Aceh, the capital of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam province. Four of the soldiers died at the scene. The fifth remains in serious condition at a hospital with gunshot wounds to his chest and thigh.

The deceased were First Lt. Dedi, Chief Sgt. Bambang, Chief Pvt. Suyatno and First Sgt Pandiangan. Chief Pvt. Wawan will soon undergo surgery at the Iskandar Muda Military Hospital in Banda Aceh.

They had been on duty in Aceh for seven months at the time of the shooting. The military had originally said Simorangkir had been in Aceh for 11 months at the time of the shooting.

If found guilty, Simorangkir could be jailed for at least 20 years, in addition to being dishonorably discharged from the military. "Should the military tribunal fail to discharge him, his unit can propose that he be discharged because he is no longer fit for duty," Bakir said.

Simorangkir is currently being treated in the Central Army Hospital in Jakarta for severe depression. He has attempted to commit suicide twice since the shooting, according to Bakir. Bakir also conceded that numerous other TNI soldiers had committed crimes in the troubled province of Aceh since the imposition of martial law in May last year.

Martial law was lifted in May of this year and replaced by a state of civil emergency. Despite this change, the military remains in Aceh and continues to fight a low-level rebellion against the Free Aceh Movement. The number of violations by soldiers has been on the decline, Bakir said, declining to give exact numbers of violations.

A middle-ranking Army officer shot and killed several soldiers and wounded several more in the town of Timika in Papua in the 1990s. That incident was blamed on malaria.

Rethinking nationalism in the context of separatist conflict

Jakarta Post - September 21, 2004

Adam Tyson, Toronto -- Aceh has always been an essential part of the vast Indonesian archipelago, being of great historical, economic and symbolic importance. Today this volatile region of Northern Sumatra is most commonly identified with the perpetual "low-intensity conflict" between the military and the unconventional separatist force known as the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM).

The modern independence movement in Aceh began in 1976. Since then it has entered the public sphere of discussion mainly in reference to its impact on national unity. Officials from the state and the military have continuously appealed to the public's sense of nationalism, arguably in an attempt to justify the ongoing conflict, on the basis that the preservation of national unity in times of crisis takes precedence over issues of justice, law or human rights.

Testing the limits of Indonesia's emerging democracy, it is now time to advocate a change in the tone of the public debate about the conflict in Aceh. Firstly, those who are opposed to the severe tactics used by the military in order to quell the separatist movement should no longer be told that they are anti- nationalistic, and that such an attitude will only serve to further the prospects of national disintegration. Such logic has proven to be detrimental over the years; among other things, the fear of being labeled anti-nationalistic has allowed the issue of conflict in Aceh to become effectively depoliticized, removed from the public debate, and isolated from the scrutiny of the media.

By accusing those who are opposed to the ongoing war in Aceh of being anti-nationalistic and sympathizers of "terrorists", state and military officials have long been able to contain the growing opposition towards their "dirty war". Of course no one is suggesting that the state, the military or the general public should tolerate armed resistance within their borders; however given the failure of most conventional solutions there is a real need to rethink our approach to dealing with such conflicts.

There are some excellent organizations and charismatic people in Indonesia that have gone to great lengths to show that the effects of the military campaign in Aceh have been devastating. However, such actions, while admirable, are by themselves not enough to resolve the matters at hand. The state apparatus has almost free reign to do as it likes in Aceh, countless civilians have their lives disrupted by the conflict, the military acts without accountability, public debate is stifled, and balanced media coverage of the conflict is effectively frozen.

It is high time that the public reengage in the debate about this unwholesome conflict, and that it becomes a major political issue which cannot be repressed. Consider this fact: The conflict in Aceh, one of the most controversial issues facing the Republic of Indonesia, was not a focal issue for debate during the legislative and (ongoing) presidential campaigns in 2004. Political candidates and parties remain reluctant to take a firm stance on the issue, fearing that they will appear anti- nationalistic or "soft" on issues of separatism and terrorism.

In an era where the democratization of the electoral process is taking hold, it is indeed time that the major issues are brought to the fore, and that politicians seeking to hold office or obtain power through public vote are forced to take a stance on the issue of separatist conflict. This opens up new forums for the discussion and formulation of policy to bring an end to conflict and violence.

Perhaps part of the new debate should address the question: What is Indonesian nationalism, and what bearing might this term have on Indonesia's separatist conflicts? Nationalism evokes feelings of a strong bond between the diverse peoples of Indonesia, binding them together in the common pursuit of development, unity and progress. Suggesting that those elements of the public who are opposed to a war that is tearing at the fibers of society and causing destabilization are anti-nationalistic is simply wrong and misguided.

To take a public stand against the devastating effects of the Acehnese conflict might in fact be the highest form of nationalism, proving ones commitment to conflict resolution and the peaceful reintegration of this troubled region into the nation as a whole. It takes an empowered and enlightened form of public nationalism to stand up to the state and the military and demand that the Acehnese conflict become a public issue, a political issue, and one in which the nation's press is able to cover in a free and unbiased way.

As citizens in a new democracy it is now a public right and responsibility to demand changes in government policy with respect to this conflict. Genuine nationalism is born out of the refusal to tolerate the official line that the state has taken for decades with respect to the need for a military solution and martial law in order to "win the hearts and minds" of the Acehnese. Bold expressions of nationalism might become the impetus on which a solution to this conflict may arise.

Take, for example, the idea of a "people's power" approach, in which large elements of society take it upon themselves to intervene directly in an issue which affects the nation as a whole. Although entirely different, this could be related to the "pilgrimage for peace" that was recently witnessed in the city of Najaf, Iraq.

In the name of freedom of speech, freedom of expression, and freedom of association, a movement could be formed that would allow a coalition of concerned students, citizens groups and professionals to march into Aceh and demand to know what really stirs within these borders. Asymmetries of information between the state and the public can only impede the peace process. Perhaps there is a reality and a truth that the state or the military does not want confirmed; perhaps the answer to conflict resolution lies in accurate information, truth and knowledge.

Braving the threats of both the military and GAM, it is possible to imagine a coalition of students, activists, and other concerned elements of Indonesian society moving en mass to the troubled region of Aceh and becoming the countries largest mediators, with the common goal of active diplomacy in order to achieve conflict resolution.

Armed with the knowledge that they are trying to doing what is best for the nation, for the preservation of national unity in the face of destabilizing conflict, and under the watchful eyes of national and international media, this new form of people's power might just prove to be a force to be reckoned with. One question remains: Who could lead such a movement, and who would be willing to follow?

[The writer, formerly a visiting researcher at Parahyangan Catholic University, Bandung, is now a PhD candidate at Leeds University, England.]

Rebels kill seven civilians: Military

Agence France Presse - September 18, 2004

Banda Aceh -- The Indonesian military said separatist rebels had killed seven civilians in the war-torn province of Aceh, according to a report Saturday.

The bodies of the seven men, aged 22 to 50 years, were found in a riverside in Aceh Singkil district on Thursday, local military chief Jamhur Ismail was quoted by the Serambi newspaper as saying. Ismail said the dead -- all of whom were fishermen -- had been abducted by the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) rebels before they were "brutally murdered" with their throats slit and heads slashed by machetes. Rebel officials could not be immediately reached for comment.

Elsewhere in the region on Friday, police shot dead a 26-year old man for trying to throw a grenade into a group of policemen conducting a search operation in Aceh Besar district.

The government began an intensive campaign in the oil and gas rich province in May 2003 to eliminate the rebels who have been fighting for independence since 1976. Military and police figures show that more than 2,200 rebels have been killed since the campaign started.

West Papua

'UN sowed seeds of doubt about its own legitimacy'

Irish Times - September 18, 2004

John D'Arcy May -- Now the pretext that the war in Iraq was a war on terror has worn thin, and the US President and the Australian Prime Minister face elections in which their manipulation of intelligence to justify the war is an issue, it is worth focusing on two much larger questions that were obscured at the time by political hype. They are the future of democracy and the role of the United Nations.

The misguided project of force-feeding western-style democracy to a nation which is little more than a colonial cobbling together of Kurds, Sunnis and Shias should make us reflect on how serious we in the west are about democracy.

The contempt for the UN by the present US administration at the height of the crisis showed just how fragile and -- let's face it -- unconvincing the UN is as the guarantor of world peace.

Turning the clock back 40 years, we find precisely the same issues at stake in one of the most shameful chapters of international diplomacy, the Indonesian takeover of the territory now known as West Papua (previously West Irian, then Irian Jaya, and now Papua in Indonesian terminology).

To recapitulate a story that has been told in this newspaper before but cannot be repeated often enough: on being liberated from the Japanese in 1945, Indonesia was determined to win its independence from the Dutch, whose Netherlands East Indies had stretched from the easternmost tip of Sumatra to the western half of the island of New Guinea.

Sukarno whipped up support for a move to "liberate" West Irian, if necessary by force. As the Dutch were unwilling to fight a war to retain their distant possession and the Americans were nervous of Sukarno's nationalism and communist sympathies, they exerted pressure on the Dutch to reach a settlement known as the New York Agreement in 1962, and the Australians, who had favoured the Dutch, caved in.

According to this agreement, Indonesia was to entrust West Irian's preparations for self- determination to the first ever UN-mandated administration, the United Nations Temporary Executive Authority (UNTEA).

As is now well known, thanks to researchers such as John Saltford and a retired US Foreign Service officer, Edmund McWilliams, the Indonesians did everything in their power to obstruct this body and the UN representative, Ortiz Sanz, as they went about setting up a so-called Act of Free Choice at a time when most observers agreed that more than 90 per cent of West Papuans would choose independence from Indonesia in a free vote.

Far from being politically illiterate, the West Papuans had held elections in 1961 which returned pro-independence candidates to 22 out of 28 seats in their assembly, and despite internal conflicts and splits their Free Papua Movement has offered increasingly desperate resistance ever since.

It was at this time that the name West Papua and the distinctive Morning Star flag were adopted, and since then various bodies seeking conciliation between ethnic and religious groups and dialogue with the Indonesians have been created.

One of the most recent is the Papua Presidium Council, whose leader, Theys Eluay, was murdered by the military in November 2001. It is here that our twin concerns, democracy and the UN, come into play.

In 1969, under the pretext of doing things the Indonesian way, by "consultation" (musjawarah) rather than a genuine plebiscite, the Indonesians were allowed by the US and UN to coerce 1,022 arbitrarily chosen Papuan tribal leaders into giving consent, under threat of death, to the annexation of a territory which constitutes 20 per cent of the Indonesian land mass and had a population of 800,000 at the time.

The UN's own observers and Ortiz Sanz portrayed this procedure as a whitewash and a farce, and Papuan representatives were prevented from passing through the Australian Territory of Papua and New Guinea to make their case at the UN.

But political expediency dictated western acquiescence in this blatant denial of the most fundamental rights of a people. The Indonesians had already removed all available infrastructure and even food supplies to Java.

The army was ravaging the territory, and concessions had been granted to huge mining interests such as Freeport McMoRan, which began operations in 1967, its mines protected by the Indonesian army and police from the reprisals of the dispossessed Amungme and Kamoro people.

The democracies had looked the other way while a travesty of democracy was carried out with their consent, and the UN had failed its first test as an international arbiter of human rights.

The most disturbing aspect of all is the reason given for the betrayal: the West Papuans simply didn't count, neither the estimated 100,000 killed in direct resistance, nor the 200,000 more thought to have died from malnutrition and disease.

In accordance with the Indonesian policy of transmigrasi, over the next 40 years the territory was swamped by 773,000 immigrants -- mainly rice growing Muslims -- from the densely populated islands of Java, Madura, Bali and Lombok, to whom some one million hectares of land were eventually ceded. More recently, transmigration has been intensified, with an estimated 5,000 arrivals a week, mostly young Muslim males.

Among these it is thought that some 10,000 members of militant Islamist groups such as Laskar Jihad and Jemaah Islamiya, as well as the pro-Jakarta Satgas Merah Putih (Red and White Militias), have been infiltrated.

This has happened with the connivance of the Indonesian army to foment inter-ethnic rivalries and Muslim-Christian tensions, thereby creating situations of conflict in which the army can show how indispensable it is to the economic prosperity and territorial integrity of Indonesia.

Despite all this, West Papua is still a long way from being included in the UN's list of territories awaiting decolonisation, and in March 2002 West Papua Action in Ireland initiated an international campaign urging the UN to review the 1969 Act of Free Choice.

Whereas the Portuguese never renounced their claim to East Timor, the Dutch washed their hands of the West Papuans in 1962 and paved the way for UN acknowledgment of Indonesia's dubious claims to sovereignty.

In doing so the UN sowed the seeds of doubt about its own legitimacy, just as the democracies betrayed their own principles by condoning Sukarno's "guided democracy" and Suharto's "new order", which was little more than a military fiefdom. No wonder neither the Dutch nor the Americans nor the Indonesians appreciate having these old issues reopened.

[John D'Arcy May is associate professor of interfaith dialogue at the Irish School of Ecumenics, Trinity College Dublin.]

Labour issues

More groups protest labor bill

Jakarta Post - September 25, 2004

Dewi Santoso, Jakarta -- More women's groups demanded on Friday that the House of Representatives delay the endorsement of the migrant workers' protection bill as it did not include protection of undocumented workers, who make up the bulk of Indonesians employed overseas.

National Commission on Violence Against Women (Komnas Perempuan) chairwoman Kamala Chandrakirana said the bill neglected the fact that illegal migrant workers were actually victims who still deserved government protection.

"Regardless of the status of their documents or their competency, migrant workers are human beings who deserve respectful treatment and have the right to protection from all types of abuse from their agencies or employers. And that's where the government should come in as it has the duty to keep its citizens safe and well while working outside the country," said Kamala. The bill says protection will be given to migrant workers whose "legal documents meet requirements set by the government."

Member of the Consortium for the Protection of Rights of Migrant Workers (KOPBUMI) Suprihartin sided with Kamala, saying that migrant workers needed to pay extra fees to receive protection from the government. "Isn't it absurd? It's explicitly written in the bill that migrant workers have to pay certain fees before they are able to receive protection from the government," said Suprihartin, known as Tina. Article 79 of the bill says migrant workers have to pay fees for documents, medical tests and certificates of competency. Article 63 and 87 stipulate that migrant workers have to pay fees for training and protection, respectively. Meanwhile, article 9 of the bill says Indonesian migrant workers are subject to service fees and placement fees.

"Should they refuse to pay any of those fees, they will be punished, such as a cancellation of their work contract and deportation at their own cost. And they will not receive any protection," Tina said during a press conference. She added that the women's groups did not encourage illegal migrant workers, but they still wanted them to be protected.

Kamala agreed with Tina, saying the government-sponsored bill focused too much on placement of migrant workers rather than protecting them. "Therefore, we call on the House and the government to postpone the endorsement of the bill as it needs reviewing," said Kamala.

Komnas Perempuan and KOPBUMI will organize a peace rally in various cities, including Jakarta, Makassar, Palembang and Lampung simultaneously on Monday to raise public awareness of the flawed bill. The House has planned to endorse the bill before its current term ends on September 30.

'War on terrorism'

Conspiracies abound, only fact is Australia a scapegoat

Sydney Morning Herald - September 16, 2004

Damien Kingsbury -- Jakarta has always been a city of intrigue, and for every significant political event there are usually any number of theories to explain it. Usually, one or even a couple of these explanations is close to the truth.

There are five theories doing the rounds at present to explain the bombing of the Australian embassy last week, which shed light on the nature of Indonesian politics as well as the status of Australian-Indonesian relations.

The first, lunatic-fringe theory is that John Howard organised the bombing with the assistance of the CIA at the direction of President George Bush. This theory notes that Howard stands to benefit from his strong stand against terrorism, and that Bush wants to see him re-elected. Support for this theory comes from more extreme nationalist and Islamic Indonesians suspicious of the US and Australia. In arguing this case, they point to the injury of just one Australian citizen.

The second theory is that Jemaah Islamiah organised and carried out the bombing in a bid to free its alleged spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir, and to punish Australia for its involvement in Iraq. The reason the Australian embassy was chosen is because the US embassy is much less accessible.

It is possible that the attack was carried out by JI. But JI knows that the Australian Government has no capacity to influence proceedings against Bashir, and the short warning of the attack did not allow time to address such demands.

It is also believed two people were killed in the van that blew up, and JI would be unlikely to sacrifice two operatives in such an attack, while the alleged suicide notes would be easy to fake.

Well-paid but innocent delivery men, perhaps chosen from the strongly Islamic area of Solo, central Java, and a remote detonating device, is more likely.

Regardless, attacking an Australian target resonates with some Indonesians, who view Australia as Christian, anti-Muslim and with a hidden agenda to undermine Indonesia's territorial integrity.

The third theory involves elements of the Indonesian military. This is that the bombing was intended to undermine the authority of the national police chief, Dai Bachtiar, who at the time was telling the national legislature that the terrorism issue was under control.

There is deep division between the police and the military, notably political links and civilian control, as well as illegal business activities. This, then, starts to look like conventional Indonesian political in-fighting, which in the past produced thousands of civilian casualties.

Supporting military involvement has been the public naming of two Kopassus (special forces) members as being connected with the bombing. Kopassus members specialise, among other things, in explosives and creating terror.

Two Kopassus members were convicted of the Jakarta Stock Exchange bombing in 2000 which killed 15 people, as well as several other illegal acts.

Further, the explosives found to have been used in the embassy bombing included those which matched explosives manufactured by the military's munitions manufacturer, P.T. Pindad. The military was asked to conduct an audit of P.T. Pindad just after the Bali bombings of 2002, but is yet to do so.

Pindad weapons and explosives have found their way to many places in Indonesia, not all of which are formally connected with the military.

The fourth explanation is that there is a group within the military that wants to create instability ahead of Monday's presidential election.

The political allegiance of this group depends on who can make the most political capital from the event. Given that President Megawati Soekarnoputri was in Brunei at the time of the blast, this goes against her camp being involved. However, the speed with which she returned to Jakarta and the bombsite was unusual for this otherwise slow-acting leader.

The fifth interpretation is that the bombing was organised by a former general who is politically influential and who has close links to Kopassus and previous dirty tricks. This person wants a senior position in the next cabinet, regardless of who is president, and is said to have used the bombing as a means to inform both candidates that he has the capacity to destabilise either if they do not comply. An Australian symbol was targeted, as they have been in the past, because Australia remains a convenient scapegoat.

This scenario will be seen to be much stronger depending on who becomes the next minister for political and security affairs.

Regardless of which of these scenarios it is, or indeed if it is another, Australia remains a target of opportunity in Indonesia -- a simple fact that is not likely to change for some time.

[Dr Damien Kingsbury is senior lecturer in international development at Deakin University and is author of the third edition of The Politics of Indonesia, Oxford, due early next year.]

Government & politics

Doomed assembly unlikely to be missed

Jakarta Post - September 22, 2004

Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta -- The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) will sit out its final session from September 23 through September 27, during which it will hear and comment upon the accountability report of President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

House of Representatives Speaker Akbar Tandjung, State Audit Agency Chairman Satrio B. Joedono, Supreme Court Chief Justice Bagir Manan, and Constitutional Court President Jimly Asshidiqqie are also scheduled to submit their accountability reports.

The session is also due to receive the report of the Assembly's Working Committee (BP MPR) assessing the work of the now-defunct Constitutional Commission. The five-day session will mark the end of the Assembly members' five-year terms.

"The session will not be a farewell forum for the lawmakers. It will, however, be the last meeting for the legislators elected in the 1999 general election," Assembly spokesman Aip Suherman told The Jakarta Post here on Tuesday.

After hearing the accountability reports of the President and other top state officeholders, the Assembly factions will convene in groups to evaluate them. The assembly factions will also evaluate the work of the 31-member Constitutional Commission.

The Constitutional Commission was set up to assess the amendments made to the 1945 Constitution, which analysts criticized as containing many flaws. The Constitutional Commission offered its own versions of the amendments at the end of its work last April. Several Assembly members criticized the Constitutional Commission for framing its own versions of the amendments, saying that the commission had gone too far.

A total of 142 domestic and 43 foreign media outlets have been officially accredited to cover the event, with a total of 850 and 154 journalists respectively. In addition, more than 250 observers have also been accredited by the Assembly's news bureau.

Assembly schedule

• September 23: Opening session, accountability reports by the President, House speaker, the State Audit Agency chairman, the Supreme Court chief justice, the Constitutional Court president.
• September 24: Assembly factions prepare responses.
• September 25: Assembly factions present appraisals.
• September 26: Assembly discusses the work of the Constitutional Commission.
• September 27: Close

[Source: Assembly Secretariat]

2004 elections

Afraid she won't be reelected, journos want group photo with Mega

Detik.com - September 19, 2004

Suwarjono, Jakarta -- Don't miss an opportunity, that's the journalist's motto and this includes the final moments in the lead-up to the "finals" of the second-round of the presidential election. Almost no activity by the two presidential candidates has escaped coverage by journalists, either the activities of incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri or presidential candidate Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono often referred to as SBY.

One interesting incident in the lead-up to this final was when Megawati was giving a speech addressing the second-round of the presidential election at the state palace in Central Jakarta on Monday September 19. While waiting for the president to give the speech, several journalists asked a staff member if they could be photographed with the president. "As a momentum in case Megawati looses, who knows [this may be] Mega's last speech at the state palace", interjected several journalists who were on duty at the palace.

In the end, after Megawati had delivered her speech journalists immediately asked for a joint photograph. Megawati who was still standing at the podium just smiled and did what the 50 or so print and electronic journalists wanted. But because there were so many of them Megawati wasn't visible. "Take turns, women journalists first then the men", said a press bureau staff member.

A number of comments were heard such as a joint photograph with Megawati is a rare event and that it is even possible that this is the first such occurrence since Megawati became president. "Since I've worked at the state palace, yeah, only now [have I been] photographed with Mega", said Farid a reporter from a radio station. (jon)

[Translated by James Balowski.]

Megawati: Taufik hard hit by her impending exit

Straits Times - September 26, 2004

Devi Asmarani -- As the early vote counts began to pour in last Monday, President Megawati Sukarnoputri slipped away from guests at her private residence in the South Jakarta suburb of Kebagusan. Saying she was unwell, she retired to her room -- presumably to watch in private the rising fortunes of rival Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Her husband Taufik Kiemas looked tense as he juggled two mobile phones that never ceased ringing. Their youngest daughter Puan Maharani was left to play host to the guests. One guest told The Sunday Times: "It just got too tense in there, I had to leave."

As Mr Bambang headed for a landslide win in the presidential run-off, the woman who became an icon of the people's struggle only five years ago appeared to have suffered a blow.

But Ms Megawati had weathered storms before. The daughter of Indonesia's founding father Sukarno was ousted as chief of her Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) party in 1996.

Three years later, she was betrayed by erstwhile friend Abdurrahman Wahid in a fight for the presidency. She had won the most votes but Mr Abdurrahman became leader because of backroom dealing. But she got her own back by succeeding the impeached Abdurrahman in 2001.

In moments of crisis, Ms Megawati has huddled with her family. "The family has gone through a lot especially under the Suharto regime, when they were bullied," said a source close to the family. "To them the latest loss just shows that life is a roller coaster."

The President spent her post-poll days at her sprawling home about 25km away from her office, receiving party executives and outgoing Cabinet ministers, and playing with her grandkids. Although she has yet to concede defeat publicly, sources said she is prepared to make an exit.

And if it were up to her, life after politics would probably revolve around gardening. "Before she became president she told me she wanted to be the director of the Bogor Botanical Garden," said a close family friend, referring to the famous park in West Java.

But her politician-husband Taufik may not approve of such wishful thinking. In 1986, it was he who egged her on to enter politics despite disapproval from the Sukarno family which had vowed to shun politics. Her defeat last week hit him the hardest.

Party insiders said he will persuade her to hold on to her post as the chairman of PDI-P. A party executive said: "He is really stressed because he is being accused of causing her to lose."

Mr Taufik has been avoiding the public eye since Monday. He did not show up for his wife's speech before the National Assembly where he is a member. But he is not likely to quit politics. PDI-P senior executive Sabam Sirait said: "Taufik has been in politics since his university days. He'll never leave politics."

Some wonder whether his hopes now ride on his daughter, Puan. The 31-year-old mother of two is Ms Megawati's only child with him. Ms Puan is said to be closer to her mother than her two half- brothers. She was visible by her mother's side during the campaign. Like her mother who entered politics at the age of 40, she is a housewife with virtually no prior political experience.

Her two half-brothers, whose pilot father Surindro Suprijarso died in a plane accident in 1971, are fiercely private, making her the likely Sukarno torch-bearer.

High expectations of new president

Radio Australia - September 24, 2004

The people of Indonesia this week voted for change ... as retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono maintained a clear lead in the country's first direct presidential election. The people's choice faces one of the most challenging jobs in Asia -- to help Indonesia realise something near its potential. Despite the terrorist bombing of the Australian Embassy just days before the final vote, the peaceful year of elections carried a strong message that Indonesians are not only backing democracy but have high expectations of it.

Presenter/Interviewer: Karon Snowdon

Speakers: Jenny, Jakarta mother of two; Muhalim, Jakarta taxi driver; Ghozali Badar, businessman and perfume merchant; Ina, hospital visitor; Budi S, Chair of the Democrat Party; Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

Snowdon: One reason for Mr Yudhoyono's popularity is his military background. Perhaps he can better deal with terrorists like those who bombed the Australian Embassy, timed it seems to coincide with the election. Beyond the senseless killing Indonesians worry about the economic impact and the effect on Indonesia's reputation, as does taxi driver Muhalim.

Muhalim: Yes I'm a little worried that world will think that everyone is like the bomber because we need the tourists to come to Indonesia. Its our big loss.

Snowdon: The Embassy bombing, attributed to Jemaah Islamiyah has touched even the perfume business of Ghozali Badar, who's built up his small business over 14 years to five shops and a shoe making factory.

Badar: After the Australian bombing especially we have trouble because we have so many salesmen who sell our perfume to offices throughout Jakarta. After the bombing it is very difficult for them to come into the buildings. This is the difficulty. It is good I think, the tighter security is good but I think if our country is more secure then its better. And I trust him especially because he has the background as army.

Snowdon: In addition to security, including domestic trouble spots like Aceh and Papua, Yudhoyono has made unemployment, the economy generally and fighting poverty and corruption his priorities. He's making a point of talking to farmers and teachers about whom jokes are made that even street beggars earn more than they do. His public expects him to improve education, the health system and other services. When I spoke to Ina, she was visiting a family member who was a patient at a hospital south of Jakarta.

Ina: It's very hard to find a good doctor, and we still pay high cost of health, it's only for the rich, not poor people and we hope after SBY new President we will have low cost health.

Snowdon: The campaign banners have long since disappeared from Jakarta's streets. Now advice is pouring in to Mr Yudhoyono -- names for the important cabinet posts of Attorney General and economic ministers, how to deal with a potentially hostile parliament, how to make a splash in the first one hundred days.

People want a strong leader, but SBY's reputation borders on indecisiveness according to some who know him. His in-crowd includes hardline retired army officers and what little is known about his form of "guided democracy" has liberals here worried.

He favours order and has promised to maintain this sprawling, ethnically diverse nation's unity, a theme admittedly close to most Indonesian's hearts.

But to see this as SBY standing for over-regulation and heavy- handedness in cases like Papua and Aceh, is wrong, according to Budi Santoso, the Head of the small Democrat Party which SBY formed to launch his presidential bid.

Santoso: Since the beginning of the Republic, Sukarno tried to integrate this nation, the heterogeneous nation, to unite ethnic groups. And now we will certainly not return to the old Order, but we have to develop a modern system. So Sukarno spent the first 25 years since independence to integrate these people, by what? By introducing new regulations and code commonly accepted by these nations. How can we develop common regulations, commonly accepted? By developing the political party as the vehicle to express their ideas and aspirations orderly.

Snowdon: His win might still be unofficial but SBY's inauguration in late October isn't in doubt. Almost immediately he will have to deal with the politically sensitive issue of raising fuel prices by cutting subsidies to rein in the budget. And he will have to name names -- high profile ones, in corruption investigations to satisfy one of his biggest election promises to go after the bigger fish. Indonesians will be watching and judging. Jenni, a former public servant has two children and lives in Jakarta.

Jenni: I hope they will be different, every President gives the same promises. We call that promises from heaven, but there's no realisation, that's why we hope this president will give us real promises, not from heaven anymore.

Snowdon: As Indonesia turns to SBY with hope, many will tell you they voted for him simply as the best choice out of a bad bunch. The direct election has been a great achievement on Indonesia's road to democracy, improving the calibre of political leadership will help ensure its also a less rocky one.

2004 elections - the end of democratic transition?

Radio Australia - September 24, 2004

Some analysts are describing the election as the end of the transition period from the overthrow of Suharto to a normalised process of politics. But, if the election is a victory for the Reformasi movement, how to explain the central role of politicians from the Suharto era? This issue was debated at the annual Indonesia Update at the Australian National University in Canberra.

Presenter/Interviewer: Graeme Dobell

Speakers: Dr Ariel Heryanto, senior lecturer, Indonesian Studies, the University of Melbourne; Dr Ed Aspinall, Lecturer, Southeast Asian Studies & History, University of Sydney.

Aspinall: The legislative and especially the Presidential elections of 2004 were simultaneously the crowning achievement of the Reformasi movement, and its ultimate frustration.

Dobell: Dr Edward Aspinall, who says both those views can be correct -- that the Suharto era elite may have still be on top, but also, in the words of The Economist magazine, that Indonesians have "spawned the rarest of creatures, a vibrant Muslim democracy."

Aspinall: In this perspective, Indonesians, as it's sometimes put, have successfully learned the rules of the democratic game. There was more bitter take on the elections, however, although perhaps a minority view. It was a view ironically held by some of those who were most directly involved in the popular movement of 1998 that brought down the authoritarian Suharto regime.

In this view, the elections have been a formal success, but not a substantive one. The voters were offered were offered little genuine choice, the major candidates presented virtually identical policy platforms, they were backed by similar coalitions of power and interests, and many of the crucial issues for Indonesia's democratic future, such as issues to do with the role of the military, barely got an airing.

Dobell: Dr Ariel Heryanto says many Indonesians were unhappy both with the candidates and the result of the vote. But he says the important reality is that for the first time, an Indonesia election can mark the shape and direction of change -- that Indonesians will drive their own history through a ballot.

Heryanto: Indonesia, historically, has not seen an election that becomes the motor for social change. When there were any social change of profound scale at all in Indonesia, it is always preceded by major violence. So if this election make a difference at all, that would be the first to become the motor of change. What we have in the past is usually social change that preceded the elections; social change that determined whether or not the election will take place and the quality of such elections.

Dobell: Dr Edward Aspinall says President-elect Yudhoyono is a product of the Suharto era, but comes to power using the language of Reformasi about the need for reform and renewal. The political analyst says the legitimacy of Indonesia's election marks the end of a transition period from the overthrow of Suharto, six years ago. He says one sign of the wide acceptance of this legitimacy is the decline in communal and separatist violence across Indonesia.

Aspinall: At last, Indonesia has a normal President, after the chaos and incompetence of his immediate predecessors. He is popular, in this understanding, not only for his apparent skills and confidence but perhaps also for his very blandness.

Dobell: The Yudhoyono victory shows the growing political importance of Indonesia's newly free media. In fact, one judgement about the campaign is that the media can take the place of the traditional grass roots party machine needed to get out the vote across the archipelago. Dr Ariel Heryanto says Indonesia trails Thailand in most areas of the transition to democracy -- apart from the freedom of the media.

Heryanto: There were about 150 million people registered to vote in the election day. There are as many people, if not more, watching television every day, seven days a week. So, we are talking about something really new and something so decentralised -- the dispersal of power there -- to say that the media is simply new political machinery is an understatement. It is not simply the machinery, it is also the site of the battle.

Megawati silent on landslide loss

The Australian - September 22, 2004

Sian Powell, Jakarta -- As the votes in Indonesia's first direct presidential election were tallied yesterday, President Megawati Sukarnoputri remained tight-lipped over her resounding defeat.

With about 74 million votes electronically counted by yesterday afternoon, Ms Megawati's support was stable on 39.7 per cent, trailing her former chief security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who was well ahead with 60.3 per cent of the vote.

Neither Ms Megawati nor Mr Yudhoyono made a public appearance yesterday, and it appeared both would wait for the National Election Commission's announcement of the final result on October 5.

A member of Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) said she was in a meeting with party officials. "She will speak after the commission announces the result," Harto Kristanto said.

PDIP deputy general secretary Pramono Anung indirectly criticised the stance of Democratic Party leader Mr Yudhoyono on the results. Although Mr Yudhoyono did not formally claim victory, he came close, saying he expected to win. "If there is another side that feels it has won, they are too early," Mr Anung said. Indonesia's new president will be sworn in on October 20.

Mr Yudhoyono rested yesterday and received guests, including his running mate Yusuf Kalla and leaders of supporting parties, at his home in Cikeas, south of Jakarta.

Indonesia's next vice-president, Mr Kalla, told reporters the new cabinet would be announced at the inauguration on October 20.

He said ministers now serving could be included in the new government, "The next government will continue from the current government, to avoid any tremors," he said.

Monday's election proceeded smoothly, with almost no violence. Two men were arrested for burning tyres in Bali, but the passion of supporters remained in control, perhaps because Ms Megawati addressed the nation before the election, asking people to stay calm.

The US States congratulated Indonesia and said the ballot set a good example of democracy for Asia. "What we have seen is that these elections have set a strong example for the region and emerging democracies everywhere," State Department deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said. "We congratulate Indonesia on the conclusion of these historic elections."

Mr Ereli said the US was "a close friend and partner" of Indonesia. "We therefore strongly support their democratic process."

Indonesia's stocks, bonds and currency strengthened after the vote. An analysism of returns backed by the Washington-based National Democratic Institute, released on Monday night, found Mr Yudhoyono would have a landslide victory, with 61.2 per cent of the vote, handsomely beating Ms Sukarnoputri, who took 38.8 per cent.

The analysis, which has a margin of error of 1.1 per cent, found Ms Megawati had most support in eastern Indonesia: in Papua, Maluku, Bali and Nusa Tenggara Timor. Mr Yudhoyono won strongly -- as much as 80 per cent of the vote -- in the troubled province of Aceh, where a separatist conflict has raged for years, and also did very well in West Sumatra.

The press praised the vote, which followed the successful completion of legislative elections in April and a July first- round presidential vote, as "an end to uncertainty".

The Koran Tempo daily said the next leader, directly elected by the people, "has the opportunity to end long-dragging uncertainty" in the economic field. "We hope the end to uncertainty this time is real and becomes the starting point for better development in the economy."

The English-language Jakarta Post said Indonesia had made history with the successful completion of a series of peaceful elections.

[With additional reporting from AFP.]

Yudhoyono's call to arms

The Australian - September 22, 2004

Patrick Walters -- Early on Monday evening, Indonesia's next leader sat down in a comfortable armchair beneath the large pendopo, or open-air pavilion, inside the family compound at Cikeas, west Java, to view the election results on a large television screen.

Beside him sat his wife, Kristiani, and his closest advisers and supporters. They included media magnate Surya Paloh, owner of Metro TV -- the network carrying the live election coverage -- political adviser Rachmat Witoelar, economics guru Joyo Winoto and Zanuba "Yenny" Wahid, daughter of Indonesia's fourth president, Abdurrahman Wahid.

Standing behind them, shunning the media spotlight, was legal adviser and veteran fighter for democracy Marsillam Simanjuntak. As early figures came in from across the archipelago, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's euphoric supporters cheered and clapped as province after province showed their candidate well in front.

The candidate himself remained in a cheerful yet deeply contemplative mood.

He looked relieved but not triumphant -- fully conscious of the immense burden soon to descend on his broad shoulders.

At 55, the former army general is about to realise a boyhood dream of becoming a genuine national leader. Thwarted five years ago in his professional ambition to command Indonesia's army, Yudhoyono has a far greater prize in his grasp. Such is his personal popularity that the final result of the presidential race could give him 60 per cent of the national vote compared with 40 per cent for incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri.

For a man who only a year ago had not publicly voiced his ambition to run for the presidency, Yudhoyono's achievement is all the greater. His expected emphatic mandate is the most striking testament to just how far Indonesian democracy has progressed since the fall of Suharto six years ago.

Without the support of a mainstream political party, he has proved a far more formidable competitor than many seasoned political experts predicted only months ago.

"He has managed to create some hope for the people here and that will be his biggest challenge actually," says Yenny Wahid, who has been one of Yudhoyono's inner circle of campaign advisers. "His greatest strength is his perseverance and his ability to relate to people in the friendliest way. People react to that. He will be a president who will talk to the people," predicts Wahid.

An only child born to Javanese parents near Pacitan, East Java, on September 9, 1949, Yudhoyono comes from a family of devout Muslims. His grandfather ran a pesantren, or Islamic boarding school, near Pacitan.

By his own account, his father Sukatjo, a soldier, was a strict disciplinarian. Yudhoyono followed his father into the army, entering the military academy at Magelang, central Java, in 1970. It was the beginning of a stellar career which saw him graduate at the top of his class three years later.

An able student throughout his military career, the popular Yudhoyono topped specialist courses at home and abroad, including infantry training with US Ranger special forces in the US.

"Even then he was talked about as a future Pangab [armed forces chief] or possible future president," observes retired lieutenant-general Agus Widjoyo, who worked closely with Yudhoyono in numerous senior army postings.

Yudhoyono commanded an infantry battalion in East Timor from 1986 to 1988, having had three previous postings to the territory -- including a stint with Operation Seroja, the invading force, in 1976. He then served in the Bali regional command before becoming an instructor at the army staff college in Bandung.

He also served as chief military observer with the UN peacekeeping force in Bosnia in 1995-96.

Enjoying rapid promotion, he reached the rank of major-general in 1996, commanding the Palembang region in south Sumatra. He then served as political and social affairs chief of the armed forces before taking up the three-star position as the army's territorial chief in 1998.

For some of his army peers, Yudhoyono, notwithstanding his considerable ability, has been seen as a "seminar general" rather than a true fighting soldier, with most of his senior postings in staff and headquarters positions rather than field commands.

Shunted out of the army against his will in 1999 by then armed forces commander Wiranto, Yudhoyono embarked on a political career, having been appointed minister for mining and energy in president Abdurrahman Wahid's short-lived administration.

He then joined Megawati's cabinet in 2001 as the powerful co- ordinating minister for politics and security. There, he was charged with dealing with the long-running conflict in Aceh as well as the upsurge in terrorism from the extremist Muslim group Jemaah Islamiah -- notably the Bali bombing in October 2002 that killed 202 people, including 88 Australians.

Yudhoyono has an easy familiarity with Australia and one of his sons is a student at Curtin University. In October 2003 he attended the Bali memorial service, making a brilliant speech that struck exactly the right note with grieving Australian families.

After his relations with Megawati became increasingly strained, Yudhoyono resigned his cabinet post earlier this year to formally run for president.

No one who knows Yudhoyono well questions his commitment, energy and intellectual capacity -- particularly in comparison with Megawati's three years of dilatory rule. He may have always been destined to rule but the key question, asked by Yudhoyono's supporters and detractors alike, is: Can SBY, as he is popularly known, provide the strong leadership and direction needed to lift Indonesia out of its economic malaise?

If there is one consistent observation about SBY, it is that his natural academic bent tends to translate into hesitation and excessive caution.

"I worry that he will become another Nasution," says one of SBY's former military colleagues, referring to the armed forces chief who failed to act decisively in the wake of the attempted coup in 1965, allowing then general Suharto to take the political initiative. "He's too cautious. I think it will be a difficult time for him over the next five years."

Tackled about this perception in an interview with The Australian several months ago, Yudhoyono defended his ministerial record in getting strong new counter-terrorism laws in place and pointed to the difficulties of working under Megawati. "I took risks that were not necessarily seen by the public," he said.

Yudhoyono's expected big winning margin will greatly enhance his presidential authority, allowing him more freedom to pick a genuinely talented cabinet team. In the run-up to this week's election, he refused to enter into horse-trading with rival political parties over possible cabinet posts, and he will come to the job untainted by corruption allegations.

With his fledgling Democratic Party having only 56 seats in the 550-seat parliament, an early test of SBY's political skills will be forming a workable coalition of MPs from other parties, including the biggest, Golkar. The wily Rachmat Witoelar, a former secretary-general of Golkar during the Suharto era, is confident that the lack of a clear parliamentary majority won't become a formidable obstacle.

"He has a strong mandate. At worst, with our partners, he will form a strong minority of around 200 seats."

Witoelar also predicts a shake-up in the Golkar leadership, with a new team expected to be installed within months likely to support Yudhoyono.

Yudhoyono's wide-ranging reform program includes a commitment to personally lead the anti-corruption drive, the promise of a return to higher economic growth rates in Indonesia and much higher spending on education. He supports press freedom and has promised to improve governance across the board, including the troubled legal system.

According to Indonesia's most senior diplomat and former ambassador to Canberra, Wiryono Sastrohandoyo, Yudhoyono should be able to project Indonesia more effectively across the region and the world.

But he stresses that, for Indonesia especially, the foreign policy challenge is as much about pursuing sound domestic policies as anything else.

"The challenge is really how to get a stronger economic recovery. That requires investment, and investment requires better rule of law and better security."

Wiryono, who worked closely with SBY on the Aceh problem, has no doubt about the next president's capability. But he worries that Yudhoyono's ambitious election platform may have created unrealistic expectations, which will be difficult to fulfil given the fiscal constraint that will bind the incoming government.

"The desire to win votes should be tempered by the desire to be honest. Both candidates have exaggerated what they can do. I think it's going to be difficult to implement all those promises," Wiryono says.

Yudhoyono waits but Megawati refuses to concede

Sydney Morning Herald - September 22, 2004

Matthew Moore, Indonesia -- Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono met his supporters yesterday in the first discussions on the shape of his new government following his landslide win in Monday's election.

At his family home in Jakarta, the President elect and his deputy, Jusuf Kalla, held talks with the leaders of several small parties who had supported his candidacy and with one of the nation's most powerful media barons, Surya Palltoh.

After the talks, Mr Kalla said the meeting had decided to delay the announcement of the new cabinet until October 20, the day Mr Yudhoyono will formally take over from President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

With more than half the vote counted, Ms Megawati had 36.9 per cent against Mr Yudhoyono's 60.3 per cent. However, she has yet to concede defeat and made no public comment yesterday. The final count is not due to be declared until October 5.

But Akbar Tandjung, the chairman of the Golkar party of the former president Soeharto, conceded that there were "strong indications" Mr Yudhoyono and Mr Kalla had won.

As the head of Golkar, Mr Tandjung was one of the key figures in his party's decision to enter a coalition agreement with Ms Megawati's PDI-P party a month before this week's poll. The failure of the coalition now throws into doubt his future as one of the country's most influential politicians.

An expert on Indonesia at the Australian National University, Greg Fealy, predicted that Mr Yudhoyono would try to engineer Mr Tandjung's removal as head of Golkar and his replacement by someone he could work with.

Dr Fealy said Ms Megawati's defeat would lead to a serious shakeout in the PDI-P and Golkar, which, he said, had failed to realise how politics in Indonesia had changed with the introduction of a system allowing the direct election of the president.

Dr Fealy said the Liberal and Labor parties in Australia would welcome the election of Mr Yudhoyono. "He's easier to deal with than Mega, who is uncommunicative and difficult to read. SBY is someone who masters a brief quickly, can give an immediate response and who had a track record that would make them [the Australian Government] very happy."

A Jakarta-based Indonesian analyst, Geoff Forrester, agreed that Australia would prefer Mr Yudhoyono, although the relationship with Ms Megawati had been mainly sound.

"It will probably be a bit more comfortable with him, although the key question is who is going to be the chief of police."

Mr Kalla has already indicated that his government will replace the national police chief, General Da'i Bachtiar, who has developed a close relationship with the Australian Federal Police Commissioner, Mick Keelty.

A cautious reformer as Indonesia's next president

New York Times - September 21, 2004

Jane Perlez, Jakarta -- Indonesia's next president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, moved swiftly up the military ranks during the authoritarian rule of Gen. Suharto and then played a back-seat role in the undoing of that government. He is considered a steady, broadly educated man who many here believe is the first person with a suitable background and sufficient training to become president since the country's transition to democracy began six years ago.

There is also much that is unknown about the general. He supports the secular tradition of Indonesia, where most people are Muslim. But how he will deal with the thorny issues of Islam and terrorism -- a subject on which the government and Muslim groups have remained largely silent so far -- remains unclear.

With more than half of the votes counted after the election on Monday, results showed that General Yudhoyono, 55, won a convincing victory over the incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri. With more than 77 million votes counted Tuesday night, General Yudhoyono had won 60 percent and Mrs. Megawati 39 percent, according to the Indonesian election commission.

In contrast to Mrs. Megawati, who took little interest in government but reveled in the pomp of being head of state, General Yudhoyono will immerse himself in details and is likely to play down the role of singular leader, an army colleague said.

"He believes in the organization," said the colleague, a former general, Agus Widjojo, who was General Yudhoyono's boss in the military. "He's aware that he's only one element in the decision-making process. He doesn't come from one of those charismatic, hero styles of leadership."

General Yudhoyono must wait for Mrs. Megawati to concede defeat before claiming victory, a process that may be several days away. He stayed closeted at his home in Bogor, outside Jakarta, on Tuesday, meeting with his running mate, Jusuf Kalla, and campaign officials.

The general faces big problems: one of the worst-performing economies in the vibrant Asian region, rampant corruption and a homegrown terror network that the police say may be poised for an attack.

As coordinating minister for security under Mrs. Megawati, he was more outspoken than many in the government on the threat of terrorism and the nature of Jemaah Islamiyah, the radical Islamic group that has been blamed for three terror attacks in the past two years.

But he was reluctant to push for more stringent measures against the group, said a Western official who dealt with him. Now that he is to become president, he needs to throw such caution aside and not find reasons not to act, the official said.

General Yudhoyono was born on September 9, 1949, in Pacitan, a small town in east Java that is likened to Dayton, Ohio, by an American friend, Dennis Heffernan, publisher of the Van Zorge Report, a biweekly review of Indonesia's politics and economy. "A nice clean little town," said Mr. Heffernan, who accompanied the general on some campaign swings.

After emerging at the top of his class in the military academy in 1973, General Yudhoyono was selected to go to the United States in 1976 for military training at Fort Benning, Ga.

That was at the height of the warm relationship between the United States and the Suharto government, which was viewed in Washington at the time as a bulwark against Communism in Southeast Asia. In 1990, he was selected for a yearlong course at the Army Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kan.

In part because of those two stints in the United States under the International Military Education and Training Program, the Bush administration viewed General Yudhoyono as the best pick of the candidates in the presidential election.

The general wants a full resumption of military relations with the United States, General Widjojo said. The training program was stopped more than a decade ago after the Clinton administration objected to human rights abuses by the military under General Suharto.

By the mid-1990's, General Yudhoyono and some like-minded colleagues like General Widjojo began to work on a plan called the New Paradigm, which called for the military to step back from its upfront role in civilian affairs.

As the crisis around General Suharto's presidency reached a peak in 1998 after the collapse of the Indonesian currency, General Yudhoyono began meeting with one of the country's prominent Muslim leaders, Nurcholish Madjid, to find a way for General Suharto to resign.

In a less flattering light, the book "Indonesian Destinies" by Theodore Friend describes how General Yudhoyono encouraged a group of Muslim and Christian leaders to look into the bombing of dozens of churches across Indonesia on Christmas Eve of 2000.

The general, according to the book, acknowledged that the facts of the bombings implicated some "former colleagues and superiors" of his. But when the group submitted a draft decree to investigate the matter, the author says General Yudhoyono declined to pursue the matter.

By all accounts, the general is an avid reader and book buyer. From his bookshelves it is clear that the general prefers serious reading peppered with a splash of light fare. "Debt of Honor" by Tom Clancy and "The World's Most Dangerous Places" by Robert Young Pelton are among the books in his library. "On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War" by Harry G. Summers and "Napoleon: How He Did It: The Memoirs of Baron Fain, First Secretary of the Emperor's Cabinet" are also there.

Financiers leave Mega in the lurch

Jakarta Post - September 25, 2004

M. Taufiqurrahman, Jakarta -- President Megawati Soekarnoputri has not only been beaten by her rival in the September 20 election in terms of votes. Former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono also beat her in terms of campaign funds with Rp 50 billion at his disposal compared to Megawati's Rp 17 billion.

Only one single company and three individual donors had donated funds amounting to Rp 120 million (US$13,000) to Megawati, according to a balance sheet obtained by The Jakarta Post on Friday. The company, PT Hasrat Abadi, based in upmarket Menteng district gave Rp 100 million, while two individuals from Jakarta and Jambi contributed a total of Rp 20 million.

The bulk of the fund was put in by her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

There has been a steep decline in the number of donors from the first round of the presidential election on July 5 when hundreds of companies and individuals had filled the party's coffers. Perhaps donors in the first round election had sensed her imminent defeat and hence left her in droves.

In total, the Megawati-Hasyim team received Rp 17.65 billion to run their campaign activities. Susilo and running mate Jusuf Kalla received ample financial support from hundreds of corporate donors totaling Rp 40.8 billion.

Aside from companies based in the capital, the bulk of corporate donors hailed from towns in South Sulawesi, Kalla's home province. In the list of donors, there were also a large number of individuals from the province's capital, Makassar. Corporate donors made up Rp 19 billion compared to Rp 21 billion from individuals.

Law No. 23/2003 on direct presidential election states that donations from individual donors must not exceed Rp 100 billion. The limit for corporate donors is Rp 750 million.

Although presumably unintended, Megawati spent more than the media-savvy Susilo in media advertising. Megawati-Hasyim team's list of campaign spending showed that it spent Rp 13.9 billion for its media campaign. Television ads consumed Rp 10 billion. Susilo and Kalla only spent Rp 10.8 billion for their media campaign.

Being aware that the media was within its grasp, the Susilo-Kalla team shifted its priority to make sure that vote-rigging would not undermine Susilo's anticipated victory.

It spent an astronomical Rp 24.3 billion to pay for the accommodation of monitors stationed at the polling stations. Kalla said prior to the election day that his team would deploy one million monitors to anticipate possible vote manipulation.

In the first round of the presidential election, the Megawati- Hasyim team spent Rp 40.56 billion for ads, exceeding the Susilo-Kalla team which allocated Rp 35.4 billion.

In the days prior to the three-day campaign period, both teams balked at the idea of surrendering the balance sheet arguing that the General Elections Commission (KPU) organized the campaign and therefore was accountable for its budget.

However, both teams met the deadline for surrendering the balance sheets late on Thursday, a source at the KPU said.

Candidates' teams are required to submit the report three days after the poll.

The KPU will submit the balance sheets to an accounting firm on September 25 for further auditing. "We expect to disclose the audit result on October 5," the source said.

She also said the KPU had written to both campaign teams to shed more light on donors who were considered dubious in the first round of the presidential election.

A new president's rise to the top

Far Eastern Economic Review - September 30, 2004

John McBeth -- TB Silalahi was an instructor at the Indonesian army's General Staff College when he first encountered a young Javanese army major called Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. "I saw him even then as a potential president," says the former two-star general.

That was in 1986. Eighteen years later, Yudhoyono, 55, becomes the third Southeast Asian general after Chatchai Choonhavan of Thailand and Fidel Ramos of the Philippines to come to power through democratic means.

Following in the footsteps of his father, a retired army captain, Yudhoyono graduated at the top of his 1973 class at the Indonesian Military Academy. Fluent in English, he was trained partly in the United States and earned amaster's degree in management from Webster University. He may have served his time in active combat units, but his real strength has always been in staff positions. Yudhoyono rose from colonel to three-star general in just five years, between 1993 and 1998, largely under the patronage of military commander Gen. Feisel Tanjung.

Plucked from his job as chief of staff of territorial affairs in 1999, he was appointed mines and energy minister and then security minister under President Abdurrahman Wahid, later making the transition to Megawati Sukarnoputri's cabinet when she took over in 2000.

Although he was chief of staff of the Jakarta regional command when government-hired thugs attacked Megawati's party headquarters in July 1996, and was chief of territorial affairs when Indonesian troops laid waste to newly independent East Timor in 1999, he has never been directly implicated in any wrongdoing. But for many students and democracy activists, the simple fact that Yudhoyono served for 26 years in the military, much of it under President Suharto's New Order regime, has been enough to make him unacceptable. Throwing in Silalahi and other retired generals who helped out in his campaign only reinforces deep- seated fears that Yudhoyono represents a return to Indonesia's past when the military played a dominant role in political life.

Yet most Indonesians who voted for Yudhoyono clearly regarded his army background as a plus. That's not because they hanker for a return to authoritarianism, but because they feel his army experience equips him to provide the sort of leadership perceived to have been missing from Megawati's three-year rule. In almost every poll, voters judged personality and leadership qualities to be more important than policy prescriptions.

So what sort of president will Yudhoyono be? Admirers see him as competent and sincere, someone with a vision of Indonesia's future and a firm grasp of Indonesia's place in the world. But former cabinet and military colleagues worry that he is what one calls "too cautious, too careful and too compromising." They say he has to show more drive and deliver more on the ground than he did in the early years of the sectarian strife that racked Indonesia.

Indeed, Yudhoyono's main perceived weakness is the time he takes to painstakingly excavate all sides of an issue. "He is so meticulous," says the ex-minister, who is being tipped for a senior position in Yudhoyono's cabinet. "He wants to encompass every detail of any issue and I think sometimes he gets himself entangled in a web of so many facts. He tends to rehash all the input brought to him and is always striving for the perfect decision."

But with the power of the presidency in his hands, some around him feel that Yudhoyono could turn out to be much more decisive than critics give him credit for. Indeed, while he likes to give everyone a chance to air their opinions, he is described by the former minister as "his own chief of staff." In other words, he finds it difficult to put his trust in those around him. Aides already worry that such micro-management could hinder the workings of his administration, which will have little time for a honeymoon.

For all the emphasis on his military career, Yudhoyono's record shows his first instinct is to be conciliatory. Those qualities were initially reflected in his appointment as chief of the United Nations observer force in Bosnia in 1995-96 and later as head of the Indonesian military delegation to the UN Security Council meeting on East Timor at the end of 1999. He also played the leading role in trying to find a peaceful solution to the secessionist conflict in Aceh province. Although he was finally forced to send in troops when peace talks broke down last year, insiders say he worked tirelessly to achieve a breakthrough despite opposition from military hardliners in the cabinet.

"He's a man of peace," says Wiryono Sastrohandoyo, the respected former career diplomat who acted as the chief government negotiator in the talks. "He will always think like an army man, but that doesn't make him militaristic."

Political analysts marvel at the deft way Yudhoyono glided through the presidencies of Suharto, B.J. Habibie, Wahid and Megawati, seemingly without missing a step. "The most remarkable thing is that he's made no real enemies," says a retired Western military officer, who has followed his career. "He's been a politician ever since I've known him. He never takes a stand he can't work around. Some see that as a weakness, some see it as a strength."

Those who know him say Yudhoyono generally keeps people at arm's length. It is only in the past few months that he has gathered around him the beginnings of an inner circle, including long-time friend and associate Sudi Silalahirudi, a retired general tipped to take over as state secretary, his campaign manager, Rachmat Witoelar, a politically savvy former Golkar secretary-general who wants to be foreign minister, and economist Joyo Winoto, who guided Yudhoyono's candidacy for a doctorate in agro-economics. Winoto heads a private think-tank, the Brighten Institute, which is developing policies for Yudhoyono, who sees the growth of agri-business as important to Indonesia's economic future now that manufacturing industries have fallen into decline. But with aides hinting at the formation of a 10-man group of advisers to address key issues, it is still difficult to ascertain who Yudhoyono will really depend on. "The decision-making will rest with me," he told Tempo magazine in a recent interview. "I can't be dictated to, nor can I be influenced by anyone."

US to watch how Bambang tackles the key issues

Straits Times - September 25, 2004

Eugene Low, Washington -- Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may be the preferred choice of officials in Washington to be the next Indonesian president, but Indonesia watchers in the US do not expect an immediate improvement in bilateral relations.

They think the United States government will adopt a wait-and-see approach towards ties between both countries until it gets a clearer picture of Mr Bambang's stance on key issues like fighting terrorism and corruption, analysts told The Straits Times.

Ties between the armed forces of both countries are also expected to remain limited until Indonesia reforms its military. "The US government will probably wait to see what Mr Bambang's policies are," said Professor William Liddle of Ohio State University. "It will also attempt to get him to cooperate more than Megawati Sukarnoputri did."

Prof Liddle believes Mr Bambang will, however, seek to preserve nationalist interests and will not be as cooperative as the US would like. "I foresee business as usual in bilateral relations. Bambang's interests -- like Megawati's -- will be defined by the political elite and he shares a similar view of the world," he added.

The US has been critical of the Megawati administration, particularly its lack of decisiveness in dealing with terrorism. But analysts say there is no guarantee that her successor will be able to do much better in implementing any bold measures.

Mr Bambang's Democrat Party -- together with its coalition partners -- controls only 103 seats in the 550-member Parliament and he needs to drum up support from rival parties like Golkar and PDI-P. "There is no way of knowing what he will do," said Professor Daniel Lev of the University of Washington. "We also don't know what the tendency of Parliament will be. This will be a major issue for the next several months."

Congressional Research Service analyst Larry Niksch, however, thinks that Mr Bambang has an opportunity to build a ruling coalition. "Golkar, for example, will not come up against him and act as an obstructionist opposition. They will probably try to cooperate with him on some issues," he noted.

The ongoing tussle for power between Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung and other factions within his party could also work to his advantage, said Prof Liddle. For now, however, Mr Akbar has dismissed offers of any Cabinet positions and said Golkar would act as "the loyal opposition".

For former security minister Bambang, support from lawmakers will be crucial to fulfill his promise of implementing reforms to eradicate widespread corruption and poverty, improve the education system, boost economic growth and fight terrorism.

With such a heavy weight of expectations on his shoulders, Indonesia's first directly elected president will find himself 'under the microscope constantly' over the next five years, said Prof Lev.

American investors, in particular, will be keeping a keen eye on developments in Indonesia. "We are encouraged that there will be new blood in government and this has boosted confidence that things will get done," said Mr John Phipps, senior director of Indonesia affairs at the US-Asean Business Council.

"The onus now is on the new government to perform. Otherwise, it will lose the goodwill of the business community."

Mega tries to mend fences as PDI-P conflicts deepen

Jakarta Post - September 25, 2004

Fabiola Desy Unidjaja and Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta -- Megawati Soekarnoputri is now trying to reconcile with her party's veteran members who had been sidelined as she is apparently coming to grips with her imminent ouster by the people.

Megawati, who had sought a full five-year mandate in the runoff, has opted to stay at her private residence in Kebagusan, South Jakarta in the past few days, holding meetings with party members who have been marginalized in the past few years.

Some old party members who met Megawati in the past few days were former party leader Haryanto Taslam, former party secretary general Alexander Litay and party executive Kwik Kian Gie.

"Ibu is listening to complaints and differing opinions from the party's estranged members. She is drawing up plans to consolidate the party and heal rifts," Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) deputy secretary general Agnita Singadikane said on Friday.

Megawati, who was supported by most of the leaders from PDI-P, Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the Prosperous Peace Party (PDS) in the September 20 election, has only garnered 39 percent of 108.8 million ballots counted as of Friday, compared to opponent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's 61 percent.

Over 153 million people were registered for the election, but only 120-125 million people were believed to have voted.

Agnita said old and new party leaders are expected to attend the meeting scheduled for Tuesday.

Finger-pointing had escalated in the party since it failed to win the April 5 legislative election, with several of the sidelined party members accusing newer members of merely telling party leader Megawati what she wanted to hear and not offering real solutions.

Veteran party members such as Kwik, Taslam and Litay were effectively sidelined by the like of Pramono Anung and Tjahyo Kumolo during the campaign.

During the presidential election campaign, Megawati set up the so-called Mega Center to coordinate all campaign activities. Most people employed there were non-party members and some party leaders who were relatively new in the party.

Kwik, who is also state minister for National Development Planning (Bappenas), held a press conference on Friday, demanding Megawati to dismiss Pramono, Secretary-General Soetjipto and deputy chairman Gunawan Wirosaroyo.

He emphasized that these people, including Cornelys Lay and Sony Keraf, were responsible for Megawati's defeat in the election runoff against Susilo.

At least 26 PDI-P members signed a no-confidence motion against party leaders Sutjipto, Pramono and Gunawan on Friday.

They urged the "gang of three" to immediately resign from their posts the party.

Budiningsih, one of the signatories, accused the three of trying to marginalize members who had been struggling for the party for a long time.

Among the signatories were Abdul Madjid, Amin Aryoso, Bambang Pranoto, Kwik Kian Gie, Subagio Anam, Engelina Pattiasina, Willem Tutuarima, Ismangoen Notosaputro and Audi Tambunan.

Agnita, however, said after a meeting with Megawati that there was no plan to dismiss anybody from the party, saying that both factions had their own positive sides that could strengthen the party in the future.

"The newer people have strong planning skills, while some of the veteran members have wide support among the constituents. It will make for good party chemistry in the party if we can unite them," Agnita said.

Disgruntled guards seize ballot boxes in Jayapura

Jakarta Post - September 23, 2004

Nethy Dharma Somba, Jayapura -- About 120 polling station guards in Jayapura, Papua, have seized three ballot boxes to protest what they claim is the authorities' failure to pay them for their work in Monday's presidential election.

The protesters also set fire to their official hats during a demonstration at the office of South Jayapura district head Evert Meraudje on Wednesday.

Meraudje and Jayapura General Elections Commission chairman La Pona later sat down with the guards to discuss their grievances. The guards claim they were not paid the Rp 40,000 (US$4.40) they were promised for providing security during the election.

Pona said the money to pay the security guards had been delivered to polling station committees in the district, and did not know why the guards had not received their pay. He said his office would pay the 120 security guards immediately, and would also launch an investigation into why the disbursed funds were not received by the guards.

"We will soon disburse Rp 4.8 million to pay the fees of the guards, and will look into why the previously disbursed money was not received by them. If there are any irregularities, we will process them according to the law," Pona said.

The protesters promised to return the three seized ballot boxes after receiving assurances from the local General Elections Commission chief that they would receive their pay.

Papuans 'walk the walk' before voting

Jakarta Post - September 23, 2004

Nethy Dharma Somba, Jayapura -- Walking one or two days to vote is not usual for the people of Papua, Indonesia's easternmost province.

In Jayawijaya regency, for example, one of the most remote and mountainous regencies in the province, people have to walk for at least one day to reach the district capital to vote. Many of the registered voters make the event a family affair, bringing along their children, grandchildren, pets and pigs to the polling station.

During the New Order era, residents only had to make the journey once every five years. This year, however, was a very busy voting season. There was the April 5 legislative election, the first round of the presidential election on July 5 and the second round and September 20.

Despite the difficulties, residents are eager to travel to polling stations so they can participate in the country's democracy, while at the same time catching up with relatives from distant hamlets.

Residents bring along musical instruments, food and drink to the polling stations, and after they vote the real party begins. Officials support this tradition because they know it helps improve voter turnout.

Hasjim Sangadji, the secretary of the Papua General Elections Commission (KPU), said the commission provided meals to residents to entice them to come out and vote. "If we do not provide them with meals, they are not interested in voting," he said.

The chairman of the Jayawijaya KPU, Agustinus Rorong, agreed that the commission took advantage of local traditions to attract local voters to the polls. "We use the traditions to attract them to participate in the election," said Rorong.

Hasjim Sangadji said Papua had very unique geographical features compared to other provinces in Indonesia. Its mountainous areas prevent people from traveling by car or motorcycle, meaning they have to go by foot or airplane to reach their destinations.

The sparse population poses another problem for the KPU. One sub-district can be home to just 10 families, and these 10 families might include just five registered voters. The lack of registered voters forces the KPU to pool several polling stations from the same district into one polling station, for the sake of efficiency.

Due to its difficult terrain, Sangadji said Papua received special funds from the central government for organizing the election in the province. Some of this money went for transporting election materials to the more remote areas and purchasing meals provided for residents at the polling stations, Sangadji said.

However, he said not all polling stations put on a feed for residents. This special treatment is reserved for polling stations in the remoter areas. In Jayawijaya regency, these remote hamlets include the Kenyam, Mapenduma, Tiom, Gamelia, Apahapsili, Abenaho and Kobakma hamlets.

This generous treatment and the traditional customs help account for the high turnout in the elections in Papua. In the legislative election, 155,476 out of some 160,000 registered voters in Jayawijaya regency voted. In the first round of the presidential election, the number of votes cast fell to 152,675, but rose again to 152,675 in the second round of the presidential election. In total, above 90 percent of the total number of registered voters in the province voted in the three elections.

Bambang unveils plans for his first 100 days

Jakarta Post - September 24, 2004

Jakarta -- Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is almost certain to emerge the winner of the country's first direct presidential polls, has begun to unveil plans for his first 100 days in power. His focus: hot spots across the archipelago and dialogues with the common people.

Mr Bambang, who was formerly Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs said on Wednesday that he would focus on domestic problems and refrain from making state visits in his first few months as president.

"In the first 100 days, I will concentrate on dealing with problems in Aceh and other troubled spots. I will also hold dialogues with common people ... and avoid travelling abroad -- unless it is for a very important reason,' Mr Bambang said, during a lunch with a group of teachers in Cileungsi, some 5km away from his private residence in Bogor, West Java.

Wednesday's informal gathering was held following a request from the teachers to meet Mr Bambang, who has promised to implement better programmes for education.

Alluding to separatist conflicts in Aceh, he said there would be no compromises as Indonesia was a "unitary state". "I believe that, within the next two or three years, Aceh will have a better future. The conflict must be resolved in a fair manner, and as peacefully as possible," he said.

Megawati apologises for shortcomings

Straits Times - September 24, 2004

Devi Asmarani, Jakarta -- In her first public statement since her loss in Monday's election became apparent, President Megawati Sukarnoputri yesterday apologised to the country's highest legislative body for her administration's shortcomings.

But in an accountability speech to the National Assembly (MPR) -- which convened for a three-day annual session yesterday -- Ms Megawati also highlighted her achievements in the past five years.

She did not concede defeat to Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose name was not mentioned in her 1 1/2-hour speech. But in what appeared to be an acknowledgement of her rival's clear lead in the polls, she said a government elected by the people must be 'more responsive'.

Flanked by uniformed military aides, Ms Megawati's apology was crafted in language typical of speeches by Indonesian leaders. "It is undeniable that there is still work to be done, and shortcomings that have to be resolved," the President told the 700-strong MPR. "For those shortcomings and unfinished works, I, together with the Vice-President, offer my apologies to the Assembly and to the beloved people of Indonesia."

In her speech, she underscored the political progress that occurred since a widespread reform movement ended the three- decade-long rule of the Suharto administration in 1998.

She took over from impeached president Abdurrahman Wahid in May 2001.

Ms Megawati said that under her leadership, she had laid down the foundations for political reforms.

"The Republic of Indonesia that we have in 2004 is much different from the Republic of Indonesia in 1998," she said. "The fundamentals of our nationhood and statehood are now fresher and stronger than six years ago. We have left behind a system of government that was centralistic, both at the central or regional level," she said.

The MPR, which in the past elected the President and Vice- President, convened for the last time this year. Under a series of constitutional changes, a new 550-strong Parliament and 128- strong Senate body will be sworn in next month to replace the Assembly.

She commended the smooth running of the three elections this year -- the legislative, the first round of the presidential polls and the subsequent run-off. "This is a political achievement for the people of Indonesia," she said.

With about 86 per cent of the vote counted as of yesterday, Mr Bambang had an unassailable lead with 61 per cent of the vote compared to Ms Megawati's 39 per cent. He swept the polls with a promise of firmer leadership and measures to boost a sluggish economy.

Ms Megawati has so far refused to comment on his victory, pending the official completion of the vote tally on October 5.

On another front, Ms Megawati admitted the difficulty she faced in fighting terrorism in Indonesia, where three major blasts occurred in the last two years. "It is not easy to fight terrorism simply by using the existing legal norms," she said.

A new guideline and legal procedure in handling terrorism more effectively is needed to track down and eliminate terror networks, she added.

Landslide victory for Susilo in city

Jakarta Post - September 25, 2004

Bambang Nurbianto, Jakarta -- As many observers had predicted, presidential candidate Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his running mate Jusuf Kalla would win a landslide victory in the city, collecting 69.21 percent of the votes.

The Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPUD) announced on Friday the final result of the manual counting of the September 20 presidential election runoff during its plenary session that was packed by Susilo's supporters.

The presidential ticket of minor Democratic Party won in all five municipalities and Kepulauan Seribu (Thousand Islands) regency against candidates Megawati Soekarnoputri and running mate Ahmad Hasyim Muzadi, proposed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Overall, Susilo-Kalla won by 3,392,663 votes, or 69.21 percent, compared to Megawati-Hasyim of 1,509,402 votes.

KPUD also announced that the number of invalid votes was 118,914 or about 2.37 percent. There were 6.74 million voters registered by KPUD citywide. Some 1.72 million of them, however, did not cast their votes on election day.

Representatives of Megawati in East Jakarta, however, did not sign the document on manual counting sent to the KPUD to protest the distribution of pins and posters by Susilo supporters in Kalisari subdistrict on election day. "I hope that KPUD makes a note of the incident in its report to [the national General Election Commission]," said Edi Siswoyo, a representative of Megawati during Friday's manual counting.

Jakarta is the first province to announce the results of its manual counting, while the nation-wide election result is expected to be announced on October 5. Attending the plenary session on Friday were, among others, Kalla, KPUD members, represenatives of the two candidates, and officials of the city administration, military and police.

Coalition shows signs of division

Jakarta Post - September 24, 2004

Jakarta -- As Megawati Soekarnoputri and running mate Hasyim Muzadi head toward a crushing defeat, signs of cracks in the so- termed Nationhood Coalition are becoming more and more apparent.

Roy BB Janis, a prominent leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), called for an immediate end to the coalition, saying that the grouping had not helped Megawati's quest for a full five-year term in the September 20 election.

Aside from PDI-P, coalition members include the Golkar Party, the Islam-based United Development Party (PPP) and the Christian- oriented Prosperous Peace Party (PDS).

The coalition was primarily formed to boost Megawati's chances in the runoff, and to form a loose coalition in the House of Representatives and regional legislatures until 2009.

However, with over 107 million ballots counted by Thursday evening, the incumbent had only gained 39.9 percent of the vote, compared to her opponent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and running mate Jusuf Kalla's 61 percent. Over 153 million people registered to vote in the runoff, but it is believed that around 125 million actually voted.

"The Nationhood Coalition has failed. Why should we maintain it? It must be stopped," Roy said, after attending Megawati's speech before the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). Without going into detail, Roy claimed that only the PDI-P, led by Megawati, was serious in supporting the Megawati-Hasyim ticket.

Responding to Roy's suggestion, Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung, who was appointed as coalition coordinator, said that the grouping would still be maintained for the next five years to "control the government". "It is our commitment [to maintain the coalition]," he said. Akbar emphasized that the coalition would focus on empowering the House to build an effective check-and-balance mechanism.

A source said that the coalition, which controls 305 seats in the 550-member House, would push for a fuel price hike as soon as possible, to provoke public disappointment with the new administration. The source also suggested that the group would use sensitive issues to instigate the people to stage massive protests and, later, impeach the president.

Responding to the speculation, Akbar said that the purpose of the coalition was not to topple the government. He said it would not be easy to impeach the president. "Let us observe issues as they develop. We will certainly respond to those issues, [but] we will see later -- I cannot discuss the fuel price hike right now," he said.

Meanwhile, Susilo and Kalla are waiting for an indication from Megawati and her husband Taufik Kiemas of a possible "reconciliatory" meeting. "We are ready anytime and hope to meet (Megawati) but we understand the present situation. We are awaiting the word from Ibu Megawati and her husband," Kalla said, after holding a closed-door meeting with Susilo at the latter's private residence in Cikeas, Bogor, West Java on Thursday. "We should accept the leadership change as something ordinary, so there should not be personal issues between the president-elect and the incumbent," he added.

Both Susilo and Kalla were Megawati's top ministers until they quit from the cabinet and challenged Megawati in the presidential election.

Also on Thursday, Susilo met with Eric Bjornlund, field director of the Carter Center, and Glyn Ford from the European Union, during which the two congratulated him. According to Ford, Susilo told them that he was committed to combating corruption, improving education, solving the unemployment problem and restoring peace and order in troubled provinces such as Aceh and Papua.

Hundreds stage protest over fake diploma

Jakarta Post - September 22, 2004

Donggala -- Hundreds of residents staged a protest in front of the -- ffice of General Elections Commission (KPU) in Central Sulawesi, demanding that KPU officials in the province annul the installation of a local councillor.

The residents said in the protest that Nasrun Nawir, a newly elected provincial councillor from the United Development Party (PPP), had used a fake school diploma while running for office.

Nasrun had been found guilty by the Palu District Court of submitting a fake school diploma in the legislative election, but he received a letter recently from the provincial KPU, saying that he was one of new councillors slated to be installed on September 25. The issuance of the letter sparked protests from the local residents.

Former US trained general ready to oust Megawati

Associated Press - September 20, 2004

Soothing and strong with a Mr. Clean image, US-trained former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is expected to win Monday's run-off poll in Indonesia and become the country's next president.

Unlike the taciturn incumbent, President Megawati Sukarnoputri, Yudhoyono has careful cultivated a man-of-the-people image, singing songs at campaign rallies, touring remote fishing villages and listening to market vendors, pressing flesh along the way.

Yudhoyono, known universally by his initials SBY, was first on the scene after the 2002 bombings on the tourist island of Bali, comforting the injured and vowing to track down the Islamic militants blamed for the attack. "I voted for SBY because I think he is smart and good looking. I want the country to be safer, I want prices to be lower and I want everyone to have the opportunity to go to school," said Siti Komariah, a 53-year-old housewife, who cast her ballot in a housing complex in West Jakarta.

Many believe that the ex-general trained at the US Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, will make the country more secure.

The only son of a retired army officer, Yudhoyono graduated first in his class from the military academy in 1973, rising steadily through the ranks. He retired from the service in 1999 and was named minister of energy the same year. He joined Megawati's administration as security minister in 2001, before quitting in March to contest the presidency.

Yudhoyono's military background includes stints in East Timor, the Portuguese colony Indonesia invaded and occupied in 1975. Questions have also been raised about his alleged role in human rights abuses, including a 1996 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Jakarta.

Besides being Indonesia's pointman on terrorism since 2001, Yudhoyono has sought to settle the country's bloodiest conflict -- the 28-year separatist insurgency in Aceh province. He negotiated a six-month ceasefire with the rebels, but Megawati pulled out of the deal under pressure from hardline generals. If he is elected, negotiators say Aceh peace talks will restart next year.

Yudhoyono's election platform has been vague, and he has refrained from criticizing Megawati's political record because he was one of its chief architects. Nonetheless, Yudhoyono has emerged as the symbol of change. "SBY is strong, caring. He is hard," said Marni, a 37-year-old housekeeper, on her way to the polls. "He is best for Indonesia."

Indonesia holds national elections today

ABC Radio AM Today - September 20, 2004

Reporter: Peter Lloyd

Tony eastley: While we have to wait another three weeks to find out who will be our new government, in Indonesia more than 150 million voters will cast their ballots today in the final phase of the nation's first direct presidential election. Polls suggest incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri has little chance of retaining power, pointing instead to victory for former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. South East Asia Correspondent Peter Lloyd reports.

Peter Lloyd: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono emerged as frontrunner in first round presidential elections in July and has continued to dominate opinion polls ever since. Yudhoyono commands more than double the support for Megawati in surveys that rate personality over policies.

The Australian Embassy bombing may help the security minded former general, but terror is far less a concern to voters here than mass unemployment, stalled economic reform and tackling corruption.

Opponents say Yudhoyono's long military background, including service in East Timor, should disqualify him from leadership in the new, democratic Indonesia. But his supporters counter by pointing out that as Security Minister under Megawati's predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid, it was Yudhoyono who was sacked for refusing to support Wahid's plan to declare a state of emergency in an attempt to avert impeachment. Later, as Megawati's security minister, he was seen as a restraining influence on army hardliners. The General himself has pleaded for a chance to prove his credentials.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono: Of course I try to respect democracy, human right and other things that is practised in democratic countries. But of course I have to admit that I have my military background and actually in the world there are many generals who finally become president, who respect democracy and other values that is held by the community at large.

Peter Lloyd: To Western governments, Yudhoyono's appeal is that he's a leader promising to tackle terrorism.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono: Of course I have to empower the true religious leaders in this country to lead the people to be a moderate Muslim, to be a moderate people in Indonesia and we have to avoid our people to be hijacked by the extremists.

Peter Lloyd: Megawati has campaigned less in recent weeks, concentrating instead on forming a last minute alliance with former dictator Suharto's powerful Golkar Party. But this marriage of convenience is unlikely to save her from electoral defeat. Rebel Golkar figures like Fahmi Idris are telling supporters to vote for Yudhoyono.

Fahmi Idris: The future of Indonesia, as you know, we have so many problems -- unemployment, poverty, education, stability. So this kind of problem cannot be solved by Megawati. That's why, if we're talking about the future of Indonesia, we should take care of this problem, we have to solve this problem and I'm quite sure Megawati has no ability to do that. That's why I do not support Mega, not because of the past, but for the future.

Peter Lloyd: If Golkar voters do desert Megawati today, her time left as president can be counted in hours, with unofficial results expected later tonight.

In Jakarta, this is Peter Lloyd, reporting for AM.

Jakarta becomes ghosts town, 38 flights delayed

Jakarta Post - September 21, 2004

Jakarta -- The city was quiet as a whisper on Monday, with no jams on the streets, most shops closed and even air traffic reduced, as 38 flights to and from Soekarno-Hatta airport were delayed. Meanwhile, all the action was taking place at polling stations, with Jakartans turning out in droves to vote.

Thirda Prilia, public relations officer of the Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Cengkareng, Tangerang, said the delayed flights -- heading to and from Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Balikpapan, Semarang, Makassar, Manado, Padang, Palembang, Pekanbaru, Jayapura, Pontianak, Bengkulu and Tanjung Karang -- had to be rescheduled because of election day.

However, no international flights were delayed or canceled and flights to Denpasar ran according to schedule. Thirda said the flight schedule returned to normal after 12 p.m.

Similar to the April 5 legislative election and the first round of the presidential election on July 5, the government declared Monday a national holiday to enable registered voters to make it to polling stations from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. Antara reported that the airport was virtually deserted, with only a few passengers milling around the departure and arrival gates. Several passengers and airport employees were also seen casting their votes at 21 polling stations located within the airport.

At Pulogadung bus terminal in East Jakarta and Gambir railway station in Central Jakarta, it seemed like everyone had stayed home -- although, over the weekend, passenger numbers had risen slightly as people returned to their hometowns to vote. "Only 10 buses entered the terminal before noon," said terminal officer Dadang. "I guess more people will be heading back tonight or tomorrow," he said. At Tanjung Priok Port, North Jakarta, freight handling activities were left for the evening shift workers who start at 4 p.m.

With most offices, shopping centers and schools closed, Jakarta seemed like a ghost town. But, at 24,214 polling stations citywide some 6,617,980 eligible voters were scheduled to cast their votes.

Monday was a respite of sorts for residents, with the usually crowded thoroughfares of Jl. Sudirman, Jl. Thamrin and Jl. Gatot Subroto a breeze to travel on. Public buses, which are usually jampacked were also seen plying the streets half-empty.

Glodok business district in West Jakarta had none of its usual hustle and bustle -- most stores had a closed sign on the door and only a few street-side vendors were interested in customers. Activities at the city's wholesale markets of Kramat Jati and Cipinang, both in East Jakarta, also ground to a halt as many traders and workers were back in their villages, where they are registered to vote.

Several shopping malls, including Mal Ambassador in Kuningan, South Jakarta, were also closed, while others only opened after 1 p.m., the starting time for vote counting at polling stations. Cafes and restaurants at Cilandak Town Square in South Jakarta had just started to open at 2 p.m., while almost all stores at Blok M Plaza, South Jakarta, were not yet open at noon. Several "shopperholics", who had been planning to hit the malls after the polling station were disappointed to find them closed.

Golkar fires nine free-thinkers executives

Jakarta Post - September 21, 2004

Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta -- The Golkar Party dismissed on Monday nine key Golkar members for defying the executive board's order to support presidential candidate Megawati Soekarnoputri and her running mate Hasyim Muzadi in Monday's election runoff.

Two of those, Fahmi Idris and former attorney general Marzuki Darusman, will almost certainly lose their seats in the House of Representatives, even though they were directly elected by the people -- Jakarta and West Nusa Tenggara, respectively -- in April's legislative election.

Other Golkar members who have been shown the door are Burhanuddin Napitupulu, Juniwati Maschun Sofwan, Abu Hasan Sazili, Abu Hanifah, Yoeslin Nasution, Anton Lesiangi and Firman Soebagyo.

Priyo Budi Santoso, who was reelected as a House legislator, escaped the scythe after he complied with the party's order to "clarify his involvement in the mutiny". "Only Priyo has given us a clear explanation. The others, instead, have just urged the party to lift their suspensions," Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung explained. Party executives are still trying to meet with another member, Edison Betaubun, Akbar added.

The dismissal was announced following an extraordinary party meeting that finished at 3 a.m. on Monday morning. The Golkar central executive board had earlier suspended the 11 politicians and explain why they chose to vote on their own and not in conformity with the party. The party sent several groups of people to meet personally with the free-thinking politicians.

Akbar said Golkar had the right to annul the election of Marzuki and Fahmi as House legislators in accordance with Law No. 31/2002 on political parties. Article 12 of the law states that party members who are elected legislative members can be dismissed from the legislative body if they lose their membership in their respective political parties.

Departing from Golkar's official dictate to support without question, the Megawati-Hasyim ticket, Fahmi and his colleagues formed the Golkar Reform Forum, which announced its support of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his running mate Jusuf Kalla -- also a key Golkar man.

Golkar suspended Kalla from his position as party advisor, because he was "disrupting Golkar's unity". But the party failed on Monday to make a decision on what sanctions to take against Kalla, pending a meeting with Akbar which is being arranged. Kalla looks set to become the new vice president of the country after early returns of Monday's vote.

Responding to his dismissal, Abu Hasan said he and his friends were considering a lawsuit against the party's leaders, and said their decision was illegitimate. "We will coordinate with our lawyers to discuss the lawsuit," Abu Hasan told The Jakarta Post.

Since they insist that the dismissal is illegitimate, Abu Hasan said the dissenting politicians would continue their activities as members of Golkar. He said the politicians had been working and struggling for the party for years. Therefore, he said, "our presence in the party cannot be terminated simply by a decision made by single group of Golkar elitists".

Citing the preliminary result of Monday's elections, Abu Hasan said more Golkar members in the province preferred the Susilo- Kalla pairing to Megawati and Hasyim. "We knew this from the beginning. People want changes. It must be the duty of the Golkar Party to accommodate the aspirations of the people," he added. He suspected that the decision to dismiss him and other Golkar members was intended to discouraging other party members from supporting Susilo and Kalla.

Huge problems await next president

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Jakarta -- Over 100 million people are expected to flock to hundreds of thousands of polling stations on Monday to cast their votes in the final round of the country's first-ever direct presidential election.

While recognizing Monday's election as a significant milestone in the country's democratization process, experts nevertheless warned on Sunday against putting too much hope in the next president.

Political analyst from the Centre of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) J. Kristiadi said that the two candidates once worked together and failed to find solutions to the problems the country was facing. "The problems faced by the country are very difficult to solve and both Megawati and Susilo once worked in the same team attempting to solve these problems, but they failed," Kristiadi told a seminar in Semarang on Sunday.

Incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri and four-star retired Army general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono are contesting Monday's election runoff. Susilo was Megawati's coordinating minister for political and security affairs before he resigned in March to stand in the presidential election. "People have to work themselves to bring about changes in the legal, political, economic and other sectors, and I am not being pessimistic if I say this. Instead, I'm talking about the facts," Kristiadi said.

Meanwhile, Center for Electoral Reform (Cetro) executive director Smita Notosusanto said Monday's poll was a critical point in the country's political life, but further reform would depend on cooperation between the government, the legislature and the constitutional court. "Of course, Monday's election will lend legitimacy to the newly elected leader as the people will have directly voted for him or her. Even if the people pick the wrong candidate, the process has given a lesson on democracy to the country -- a lesson we have learned through experience," Smita told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

A total of 153,312,436 eligible voters are expected to cast their votes at over 567,000 polling stations in 32 provinces on Monday. The poll, whose results will be announced on October 5, will not only decide the fate of Megawati and Susilo, but also serve as a litmus test on whether or not democracy has fully taken root in the world's largest Muslim country.

Over 189,000 police and 37,000 military personnel, as well as 1.2 million civilian security auxiliaries, have been deployed to ensure security during the election, held less than two weeks after a powerful bomb blast killed at least ten people in Kuningan, South Jakarta.

The Susilo-Kalla ticket, which has topped virtually all the pre- election opinion surveys, has promised to bring about change in the country, which has been plagued by a slow recovery from the economic crisis of 1997. The ticket, however, has been very short on concrete programs for change, leaving the voters mostly in the dark as to what they intend to do.

Megawati and her running mate Hasyim Muzadi, on the other hand, has promised to complete the unfinished programs of the present government. Many analysts have pointed their fingers at Megawati for failing to resolve bloody religious conflicts in Poso, Central Sulawesi and Ambon, and secessionist problems in Aceh and Papua provinces. She has also been accused of dragging her feet in fighting against corruption.

"There is only one parameter to determine whether or not the election has brought about changes in Indonesia, and that is whether or not the three institutions can carry out their duties in line with their respective roles," said Smita. "The checks-and-balances principle should be implemented in the relationship between the legislature and the government. The Constitutional Court itself has been granted the power to impeach the president should he or she fail to uphold the state guidelines. So, let's just see whether this process will run smoothly," she said.

'No candidate followed rules exactly'

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Among the foreign observers here for the runoff of Indonesia's first direct presidential election on Monday, the largest contingent consists of the 220 members of the European Union Election Observation Mission. The following are excerpts from an interview with its chief observer, Glyn Ford, who spoke to The Jakarta Post's M. Taufiqurrahman.

Question: How significant is Indonesia's election to the world at large and especially to the European Union itself?

We take the view that democratic countries are better partners and whatever we can do to encourage the process the better it will be. We will spend 5 million euros only to monitor the Indonesian election; if that helps a little to ensure a proper transition to democracy, it is very cheap.

After these five years of democratic development, do you consider that democracy has taken root in the country?

After a transition to democracy, we believe that the second election is the one that is the most important in the consolidation of democracy. I hope we will not be here in 2009, it will not be necessary, you would already have a democracy. Certainly it's not our plan to monitor all elections in Indonesia.

Given this make or break nature of the election runoff, does Monday's poll have greater potential for vote rigging?

We are well aware of such potential. The possibility of vote rigging could arise from problems that lie in the aggregation of votes at the subregency (district, subdistrict) level and not at the polling stations, and that is why we are leaving our long- term observers in the provinces until the votes get to the subregency.

Both campaign teams are as good and as bad as each other and we have to be aware of the reality that the Nationhood Coalition supporting (the incumbent) Megawati Soekarnoputri has control over the state machinery at the national down to regental level. I am not saying that it is going to happen, but it is easier for the team and individuals within the campaign team to engage in fraudulent activities, not because they are worse people but because they have the opportunity.

Thus far, have your observers found any indication of misuse of state resources?

At this stage, nothing systematic has been found. The misuse of state resources will definitely affect the election result, but that it is one among many factors that have to be taken into account. I suspect that we are likely to see the same thing happening again in the runoff. We will closely monitor that.

Would you say that the contenders have complied with the election legislation and regulations?

None of the candidates and their supporters followed the regulations exactly. However, it is acceptable, even in our elections (in Europe) we have complaints. Moreover, there is a system that works, supported by the General Elections Commission (KPU), the Panwaslu (General Election Supervisory Committee) and the police, which uphold the regulations.

Do you see any possibility of violence following the announcement of the results?

I hope not, but it will happen if one party believes that it has lost unfairly. If the losing party accepts the defeat then it will be much easier. If there is a dispute that could lead to violence, the role of foreign observers could be quite important, to come out clearly by saying that that's not the case and it might help diffuse the situation. However, we have reason to be optimistic because there has been no violence thus far.

What about the KPU's performance, do you see any types of interference in its work?

I have no view that the KPU was partial towards one candidate over another. They are impartial. There is some degree of incompetence, but that is very much different from partiality.

Does the KPU show any indications of being biased in favor of President Megawati?

The KPU is not biased in favor of Megawati or they would have made decisions based on that basis. I think some of their decisions benefited Megawati, but I don't think there is a plot. The KPU spent too much time in reaching an agreement with both campaign teams.

Will the corruption allegations against the KPU have any impact on its credibility and on the election itself?

Even if the allegations are true, it will not have an impact on the election in the sense that it will be reflected in the election result. It may be true that someone within the KPU spent too much money for the ink, but it will not affect the election. If the KPU spent twice what they have should have, then it is an issue of either incompetence or fraud. Even if the KPU is corrupt, you could still have a valid election. Has the supervisory committee, Panwaslu, lived up to the expectations of the public?

In many areas, the Panwaslu has played a very important role. However, the lines of responsibility should have been made clearer as there was a certain degree of confusion. There should be a clearer mandate for the Panwaslu in the next election. Panwaslu should also be more proactive, rather than just waiting for complaints. If they see that something is wrong, then they could investigate at their own initiative.

Registered voters drop by 103,000

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Jakarta -- Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPUD) Muhamad Taufik said Sunday that the number of registered voters for Monday's presidential election declined by 103,528 to only 6,617,980, while the number of polling stations is reduced by 10 from 224,224 stations into 224,214.

Taufik said the decreasing number was because many people have moved from the area where they had been registered before.

He also said that the voting period would be closed at 1pm before the polling station committee could count the ballot papers. He added that the quick count result would be available on Tuesday.

Corruption/collusion/nepotism

Susilo told to fire corrupt officials to save economy

Jakarta Post - September 25, 2004

Rendi A. Witular, Jakarta -- Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will likely be sworn in on October 20, was encouraged on Friday by local businesspeople to crack the whip against thieving government bureaucrats so companies could produce their goods at lower prices for the domestic and international markets.

Businessman and chairman of the National Economic Recovery Committee (KPEN) Sofjan Wanandi said the most daunting task that the new government would encounter was to slash the high-cost economy, which was a result of corrupt bureaucrats and officials charging fees for everything -- legal and otherwise.

"In the first 100 days, Susilo should have the boldness to fire all corrupt government officials who have been extorting money from the business community," said Sofjan, who is also chairman of the influential business lobby, the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), which specializes in industry-labor relations.

"If he [Susilo] manages to address the problem, the business community will gain confidence him and the government, and that in turn will help us all produce more affordable products for the local and overseas markets," he said.

Local and foreign businesspeople have been complaining incessantly over the last few years about the corrupt government officials' unending and often bizarre and lawless extortion. They also complained that other officials simply abused the existing regulations for their own personal gain or as a way to fund a "certain political party." Based on a recent study by the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), at least 35 percent of local companies' production costs are used to service such expenses, ranging from extra fees for goods clearance in ports to the cost of giving "cigarette money" to all the policemen stationed along roads.

The high-cost economy has also been blamed for the low competitiveness of the country's products overseas, slowing export growth. Export activities have long been expected to become one of the main engines in accelerating the economic growth, but the sector has never really taken off.

Reviving investor confidence in the economy and the government is crucial as the country badly needs fresh investment to accelerate growth in the economy, which has been expanding at a meager rate of around 4 percent during the past couple of years mainly driven by domestic consumption as investment and export performances remain weak.

Chief economist of DBS Vickers Securities Ferry Yosia Hartoyo said Susilo should be able to ensure legal certainty in the business community and boost law enforcement in his first 100 days in office, in order to revive the confidence of the banking sector to channel more of their loans to the real sector.

"We don't need foreign direct investment to help drive the economy. Funding from local banks is actually enough to revive the real sector, which will eventually create new jobs and derive taxes to the state," said Ferry.

According to Bank Indonesia officials, excess liquidity in local banks is estimated to reach around about Rp 200 trillion (US$21.88 billion). But according to Kadin, the excess is about Rp 400 trillion in total.

Ferry also highlighted the need for the new government to immediately raise fuel prices in a bid to cut losses caused by the huge cost of fuel subsidy that could cripple state finances.

"The new government should cut the subsidy by this year ... Subsidy for the fuel can instead be used as an incentive to help spur economic growth," he said.

The budget committee of the House of Representatives and the current government have decided to cut the fuel subsidy for this year from the proposed Rp 63 trillion (about US$7 billion) to Rp 59.2 trillion.

69 councillors to be grilled over graft allegation

Jakarta Post - September 22, 2004

Oyos Saroso H.N., Bandarlampung -- Following a green light from the Central government, Lampung Prosecutor's Office will soon question 69 councillors from Lampung provincial council for their alleged roles in the Rp 19.5 billion (US$2 million) graft case. Earlier, the provincial prosecutors have already questioned six councillors for their respective roles in the high profile graft case.

"The questioning will be held immediately. In the meantime, we are completing the dossiers on the six council leaders and we will soon hand over the dossiers to the court for prosecution," said Zainal Abidin, the deputy chief of Lampung prosecutor's office.

Minister of Home Affairs Hari Sabarno gave the green light on Monday during his visit to Bandar Lampung, the capital of Lampung province. Hari said that the prosecutors should not need to wait for his written approval and from now on, they could proceed with the investigations.

The corruption case was brought to light two years ago when several activists reported their findings to prosecutors on the alleged corruption of the Lampung 2001 and 2002 provincial budgets.

The activists alleged that 75 councillors had collectively embezzled a total of Rp 19.5 billion from the budget. They said that the councillors were found to have marked up the budget allocation.

The investigation into the 75 Lampung provincial councillors is being held amid current investigations and prosecution into other fellow councillors nationwide, including Padang municipal council in West Sumatra province and West Nusa Tenggara provincial council.

Local & community issues

10,000 face eviction for water project

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Oyos Saroso H.N., Bandarlampung -- Bandarlampung municipal administration is planning to demolish some 5,000 stilt houses in Lampung Bay, in line with its plan to implement the so-termed Waterfront City Project.

The demolition of the houses -- set to be carried out in the near future -- became certain when the administration recently issued a bylaw on city planning and a mayoral decree on the demolition of stilt houses that were erected without permission.

Bandarlampung Mayor Suharto ordered the area's three district heads to warn residents to prepare to move out due to the imminent demolition of their homes. Suharto said in a circular that the houses were illegal as they were built over water that is state territory. The 5,000 houses accommodate over 10,000 people. Residents have pleaded their case, asking the administration to reject the bylaw.

Secretary-general of the Lampung Fishermen's Union Joko Purwanto, said the residents' houses and surroundings were their life, arguing that the planned demolitions would leave them unemployed and homeless. Joko insisted on Saturday that the houses were not illegal, saying that the fishermen had paid land and building taxes and possessed identity cards.

Executive director of the Indonesian Forum for the Environment's (Walhi) Lampung office Mukri Priatna, lashed out at the government on Saturday, saying it had not discussed the plan with Lampung Bay stakeholders. "The Water Front City Project will only benefit government officials and businessmen, and cause the fishermen to suffer," said Mukri. He said the project was overly ambitious and could endanger the ecosystem of the bay.

But, the secretary of Bandarlampung Development Planning Body (Bappeda), Adi Erliansyah, denied the accusation. He said that, prior to the issuance of the bylaw and the mayoral decree, the government had already invited all stakeholders to discuss the matter, including community figures, non-governmental organizations and academics.

He said that the issuance of the bylaw and the decree had been according to procedure. According to Bylaw No. 4/2004 -- which was issued in August -- the Bandarlampung administration is allowed to develop the bay for, among others, tourism purposes. The administration plans to reclaim a 15-kilometer stretch of the bay.

Human rights/law

Rights body to investigate forced disappearance cases

Jakarta Post - September 25, 2004

Muninggar Sri Saraswati, Jakarta -- The National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) said on Friday that it had decided to form two teams to probe disappearances during the New Order era.

Commission member M.M. Billah said that one of the teams would investigate the disappearance of suspected members of the outlawed Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), and the other the victims of the so-termed mysterious shootings from 1983 to 1985.

Thousands of suspected PKI members disappeared from 1965 to 1966, while over 300 alleged criminals were found dead from 1983 to 1985. The mysterious shootings were rumored to be an attempt to curb crime.

Billah, who once led a Komnas HAM team that reviewed a number of disappearances in the country, said the planned probes had their legal basis in Law No. 99/1999 on human rights.

"If the teams find strong indications that the disappearances were involuntary, we will upgrade the status of the investigation for prosecution," he said, here on Friday.

The PKI case will be investigated by the team that is currently examining the government's decision to ostracize alleged PKI members without trial.

Billah said his team had recommended an investigation of the implementation of the military operation zone (DOM) in Aceh from 1989 to 1998, the military operation in Papua from 1971 to 2001, the attack on the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) headquarters in 1996, the disappearance of 14 activists of the Democratic People's Party (PRD) in 1998 and the disappearance of a number of people in the 1998 riots.

During the DOM in Aceh, as many as 874 people were reported missing, while in Papua at least 23 people went missing. As many as 23 people disappeared during the July 27 incident, while after the May riots, dozens of people were reported missing.

Billah said Komnas HAM was reviewing the police's investigation of those cases. According to Komnas HAM's review team led by Billah, state apparatus -- namely the Indonesian Military (TNI), police, forest rangers and bureaucrats -- were behind the disappearances.

"In some cases, like in the July 27 incident, political party members were involved," the team said in a statement, referring to the forced takeover of the PDI headquarters by a party splinter group in 1996.

In Indonesia, according to the team's findings, victims could be witnesses of incidents allegedly involving state apparatus, non- governmental activists, university students, or civilians who stood up for their rights -- such as farmers or labors -- members of certain groups of parties whose ideologies were against that Qof the state, activists of Islamic groups who were branded militant or hard-liners, or people whose names were coincidentally the same as those of people on the state's most- wanted list.

Intelligence powers stepped up

Green Left Weekly - September 22, 2004

Max Lane -- In a move criticised by Indonesian human rights organisations, interim home affairs minister Hari Sabarno announced on September 15 that officers of the National Intelligence Body (BIN), a civilian agency reporting directly to the president, would be given powers of arrest. Under Indonesian law at the moment, only police officers can make arrests.

Sabarno also announced that BIN head Hendropriyono would head up a taskforce, and be given power to coordinate all intelligence operations. While BIN was established to bring all intelligence agencies under one umbrella and Hendropriyono was given cabinet rank, the armed forces, the police and the foreign affairs ministry all still have intelligence wings.

Rachland Nashidik, director of the human rights organisation, Imparsial, criticised the new extra-judicial powers. Nashidik commented that he thought that Hendropriyono was using the September 9 bombing of the Australian embassy in Jakarta to revive an earlier law on intelligence agencies that gave BIN the right to make arrests.

House hurries up TNI, autonomy bills

Jakarta Post - September 22, 2004

Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta -- With their five-year term ending in roughly a week, members of the House of Representatives are rushing to finish deliberations of the Indonesian Military (TNI) and regional autonomy bills.

They are also scheduled to endorse revisions to the House's internal regulations later on Wednesday. The revisions call for the establishment of a permanent Council of Ethics to boost the House's performance.

Legislators deliberating on the two bills told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday that they were still hopeful that the drafts would be endorsed before their term comes to an end on September 30.

Lawmakers discussing revisions to Law No. 22/1999 on regional administrations, one of the two main regional autonomy laws, were discussing the progress on Tuesday. "We will hear the final report of the deliberation on September 28 before endorsing the draft on September 29," said legislator Agun Gunandjar Sudarsa of Golkar. The other is Law No. 25/1999 on fiscal balance between the central government and regional administrations.

New members of the House elected in the April 5 election -- some 60 percent in all -- will be sworn in on October 1.

Agun, who heads the team that is deliberating on the revisions, expressed optimism that they would be able to finish on time. Fellow legislator Zain Badjeber of the United Development Party (PPP) said that legislators had agreed to adopt direct elections for regional heads. He added, however, that the legislators had not settled the issue on which political parties have the right to field candidates for regional administration elections. House factions and the government had agreed that candidates must be nominated by political parties or coalitions of parties. However, they differed on the election threshold for political parties to nominate candidates. A group of legislators proposed that a party or a coalition must have at least 10 percent of seats in the local legislative body before nominating a candidate, but other legislators wanted to raise the number of seats to 15 percent.

Separately, legislators deliberating on the TNI bill started their closed-door deliberations at the House. Ibrahim Ambong, chairman of the House's commission deliberating the TNI bill, said legislators had been trying to work harder to finish the deliberation.

Ambong, from Golkar, confirmed that his commission had allocated time for deliberation until the end of this session. "However, we will have a plenary meeting of the People's Consultative Assembly. That is an obstacle," he said, referring to the Assembly meeting scheduled for September 23 through September 27.

In addition, Imam Addaruqutni from the National Mandate Party (PAN) disclosed that none of the crucial issues of the TNI bill had been settled. The crucial issues include the TNI's controversial territorial role, the relationship between the Ministry of Defense and the TNI headquarters and the appointment of active military officers in the bureaucracy. "We plan to work hard on this bill. However, we will not rush to finish it. Personally, I doubt the legislators can finish the bill," Imam told The Jakarta Post.

All House members are part of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) and must then take part in the plenary meeting from September 23 through September 27. They will only have four effective working days to finish the bill.

PDI-P drops proposal on military

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Kurniawan Hari, Jakarta -- The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) withdrew on Friday its proposal to insert an article into the military bill being deliberated by the House of Representatives banning newly retired military personnel from politics.

PDI-P legislator Amris Hasan said his faction had accepted the Indonesian Military (TNI)'s argument that the bill should deal only with active military personnel. "The stipulation [banning newly retired military personnel from politics] will be taken up in other bills. We accept the explanation from the TNI chief (Endriartono Sutarto)," Amris told The Jakarta Post here on Friday.

The PDI-P, the largest faction in the House, had sought to include in the military bill an article requiring military personnel to stay out of politics for at least two years after their retirement. The National Awakening Party (PKB), the fourth largest faction in the House, also supported the proposal.

Despite its pledge to withdraw from politics, the TNI remains one of the most influential political entities in the country. In the first round of the presidential election on July 5, three of the 10 presidential and vice presidential candidates had a military background, raising fears that the military was staging a political comeback.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will face incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri of the PDI-P in the election runoff on September 20, is a retired four-star Army general.

PDI-P faction spokesman Permadi insisted on Friday all retired military personnel must wait for two years before joining a political party or entering into formal politics. Amris said this "two-year interval" would assure the retired military personnel would not use the military network for their political purposes. "Without the interval, newly retired military personnel can still use his or her influence for personal interests," said Amris, deputy chairman of the House's defense commission.

During past hearings with legislators, some defense experts have suggested that military officers should be banned from politics for a certain period of time to prevent active military officers from using their positions for political gain.

Gen. Endriartono agreed in principle that military personnel should be prevented from entering the political arena immediately upon retirement, but suggested the issue be taken up in other bills, not the military bill. "The TNI bill regulates active military personnel, while regulations related to political activities should be put in the political party law or other related laws," said Endriartono, who along with Ministry of Defense secretary-general Rear Marshal Suprihadi represented the government in the deliberation of the bill.

Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Hari Sabarno was absent from the deliberations on Friday.

The lawmakers agreed to adjourn the deliberations until Saturday night. With just about 10 days left before legislators end their five-year term on September 30, it is unlikely the lawmakers will be able to finish deliberating some of the more contentious issues in the bill.

Reconciliation & justice

Victims of 1965 tragedy sends 'somasi' to the palace

Detik.com - September 14, 2004

Suwarjono, Jakarta -- On Tuesday September 14, victims of the 1965 tragedy(1) went to the presidential palace wanting to meet face-to-face with President Megawati Sukarnoputri with the aim of presenting a legal action (Somasi) to the president.

Staff from the protocol division however suggested they go to the State Secretariat on Jalan Veteran. State Secretariat staff said that Megawati was too busy to meet them so in the end the litigation was handed over to secretariat staff member Rohim.

In the litigation the victims of the 1965 tragedy, who referred to themselves as citizens who had been victims of accusations that they were directly or indirectly involved in the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), presented three requests.

The first request asks the government to repeal all legislation which abrogates people's economic, social, cultural and political rights, in particular the rights of G30S/PKI victims(2). They also asked the president to issue a decree to rehabilitate citizens who were the victims of such accusations or slander. Finally, they asked the president to order all government institutions and bodies to reregister the victims and provide financial compensation taking in to account inflation and the price of gold.

The victims' legal attorney, Uli Parulian Sihombing, who is also the director of the Jakarta chapter of the Legal Aid Institute said that the litigation was sent to Megawati and two other former presidents, Suharto and B.J. Habibie.

Megawati, Suharto and Habibie were given seven days to respond and if they failed to do so a second litigation would be sent. If there was still no response the case will be taken to court. (dit)

Notes:

1. On the night of September 30, a group of middle-ranking military officers kidnapped and killed six generals they accused of organising a coup against Indonesia's President Sukarno. By blaming the incident on the Indonesian Communist Party, this provided the pretext for sections of the military, led by a Major General Suharto, to mount a bloody counter-revolution in which as many as 1 million communists and left wing sympathisers were killed, and hundreds of thousands of others interned.

2. Gerakan 30 September/Partai Komunis Indonesia, the September 30 Movement/Indonesian Communist Party.

[Translated by James Balowski.]

News & issues

Bob Dole: Indonesia's man in Washington

Center for Public Integrity - September 22, 2004

Kevin Bogardus, Washington -- Former Sen. Bob Dole, the Kansas Republican who ran for President in 1996, is known for his dry wit and television commercials after 45 years of public service. What he is not known for is his work as a powerful lobbyist in the nation's capital for Indonesia.

Espousing the Pacific nation's value to the United States as an ally in the war on terror, Dole is also trying to recover hundreds of millions of dollars for the Indonesians -- at the expense of an American company.

The Indonesian government paid the Alston & Bird law firm nearly $850,000 to have Dole and nine other lobbyists wine and dine Washington officials during a five-month period in the past year. Another political insider, Jonathan Winer, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for International Law Enforcement and chief counsel to Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats' presidential candidate, is part of Dole's team.

One of the top tasks for Dole and company is protecting the interests of Indonesia's state oil company Pertamina in a huge, multi-million dollar legal case brought against it by Karaha Bodas Co., a Cayman Islands-based joint venture between US companies Caithness Energy and Florida Power and Light Co.

In 1998, Karaha Bodas had a contract with Pertamina to build a geothermal plant in Indonesia, which was voided by the since- ousted Suharto dictatorship. The Geneva Arbitration Court found Pertamina liable for breach of contract, and KBC subsequently took Pertamina to court across the globe-in the US, Canada, Hong Kong, even Singapore-to freeze the company's assets and collect up to $299 million in damages and interest.

Pertamina has said it wants to settle the case, but Karaha Bodas has held firm and pushed ahead with its litigation.

"Pertamina owes KBC a lawful debt and they should pay it as soon as possible," said Chris Dugan, lead counsel for Karaha Bodas in the case. "Pertamina believes that the arbitration award is fundamentally flawed and is the result of inherently improper procedures," said Matthew Slater, Pertamina's lead counsel. "Pertamina has acted within its rights to raise these defenses in court."

In a December 18, 2003 letter from an Indonesian minister, Dole was personally asked to advocate for Pertamina. Dole, who has lobbied for foreign clients in the past, including Oleg Deripaska, Russia's youngest billionaire, soon accepted Indonesia's offer to lobby for Pertamina. But he was not alone; Indonesia has hired two other firms that have lobbied Congress and the executive branch on its behalf over the past year.

Pertamina's legal troubles were clearly of high concern to Dole and his compatriots, according to Alston & Bird's foreign agent disclosure filings with the US Department of Justice. The firm's lobbyists called and met with State Department officials 12 times, including the US Ambassador to Indonesia, Ralph "Skip" Boyce, to discuss the lawsuit.

Both Dole and Winer declined to comment on their work for the Indonesian government when contacted by the Center for Public Integrity. "The State Department has not intervened on Pertamina's behalf and they should not intervene on Pertamina's behalf," said Dugan, the Karaha Bodas lead counsel.

Slater, the Pertamina lead counsel, felt the case could affect America's image abroad. "I think the litigation has implications for important United States interests that could be addressed to the court."

But Pertamina's legal battles were not the only advocacy tasks assigned to Dole and his team by their Indonesian employers. Alston & Bird lobbyists have also been promoting Indonesia's status as the biggest Muslim democracy and as an ally in the Bush administration's war on terror.

Indonesia's representatives called or met with the National Security Council, including Deputy National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, more than a dozen times. Lobbyists from Alston & Bird also met with Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and called Cofer Black, the State Department's counter-terrorism expert.

Indonesia is an active member in the war on terror. The Australian embassy in Jakarta was bombed earlier this month, killing at least nine people. Indonesian authorities suspect Jemaah Islamiah, an Al Qaeda-linked Islamic militant group also believed responsible for the 2002 Bali nightclub bombings.

Dole's lobbying team discussed "anti-terrorism assistance programs," "terrorist issues," and "Indonesia foreign assistance." They also lobbied for reinstating military aid to Indonesia, crossing the aisle to speak with Kerry's Senate staff to better understand the Democratic Party's stance.

Funds to the Indonesian army were cut off years ago due to their human rights abuses during the East Timor crisis in the late 1990s. Human rights issues continue to be points of "friction" between Indonesia and the United States, according to the State Department.

Dole's team has also been stumping for Indonesia on Capitol Hill. Alston & Bird representatives contacted the United States- Indonesia Society, or USINDO, a non-profit group that organizes trips to the multi-island nation for political delegations. By January 2004, Dole's team had met with several congressional staffers who were traveling to Indonesia.

This past January, USINDO sponsored an all-expense-paid junket for five top Capitol Hill staffers, including stops in Jakarta and Bali. According to USINDO, the group spent a week learning about counter-terrorism, human rights, and the upcoming presidential elections, which were held in July, with a runoff earlier this week. Such trips are nothing new for USINDO. Since its founding in 1994, the group has spent more than $1 million to send congressional staff and American students to Indonesia.

Soon after the January trip, newfound support for Indonesia suddenly sprouted on Capitol Hill. Rep. Dan Burton, a powerful Republican from Indiana, announced in February that he was creating an Indonesia Caucus, which he said would bring together members interested in helping the country. Mark Walker, Burton's chief of staff, was part of the January junket sponsored by USINDO.

"What is going to end this threat of global terror is changing the hearts and minds of people," said Nick Mutton, Burton's press secretary. "Indonesia is one of those countries trying to do that."

A USINDO vice president, Dan Getz, organized the January trip for the congressional staff. Getz left USINDO and joined Burton's staff on the human rights subcommittee in April of this year and traveled to Indonesia for the Indiana representative this past July to observe elections along with the Carter Center.

Dole's team also contacted the staff of Rep. Robert Wexler, D- Fla., and Rep. Jennifer Dunn, R-Wash. Both have joined the Indonesia Caucus, with Wexler co-chairing the group with Burton.

"Certainly, having a staff member or a chief of staff travel to Indonesia will provide the congressman with first-hand information," said Jonathan Katz, Rep. Wexler's legislative director. "But Wexler has had an interest in Indonesia for a while."

Environment

Siberut Island suffers as logging destroys ecology

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Syofiardi Bachyul Jb, Padang -- Two non-governmental organizations (NGOs), joined by Padang's North Siberut Alliance for the Preservation of Mentawai Culture (AMAPM), are urging the government to put a stop to logging activities on the island of Siberut, which is among the Mentawai Islands.

According to the West Sumatra branch of the Indonesian Forum for the Environment (Walhi), the Citra Mandiri Foundation (YCM) and the alliance, widespread logging -- carried out by forest concessionaires and permit holders -- could cause serious environmental damage to the island, which is some 150 kilometers west of West Sumatra's capital Padang.

"Even without the logging companies, the island is prone to natural disasters as its ecology is fragile," said deputy director of the YCM Frans R. Siahaan.

Siberut is a small island with an area of 403,000 hectares. It was separated from Sumatra 500 million years ago and is vulnerable to erosion. The forest has been its main ecological protector.

The forest is home to a number of endemic animals and plants, among them four primates: the Bilou (dwarfed gibbon) the Simakobu (pig-tailed monkey), the Bokkoi (Mentawai macaque) and the Joja or Mentawai monkey.

There are eight companies and cooperatives allotted more than 50,000 hectares of land on the island by the government. They have been operating on the island for the last few years. The forestry ministry is reportedly processing the concession for a private company to log 49,440 hectares of forested area.

West Sumatra Walhi director Agus Teguh Prihartono said that -- based on the results of an investigation the three organizations conducted two months ago -- the logging companies had considerably damaged the environment and contributed to social unrest among locals.

A number of rivers dried up and trees were felled arbitrarily, although concessionaires are prohibited from logging trees on sloped or hilly ground, or those that are less than 50 centimeters in diameter.

The presence of logging companies also threatens the ecology of Siberut National Park, according to Agus. One company was also penalized for logging trees within the national park, some of which were over 14 meters tall. Conflicts among tribes and families are commonplace on the island, allegedly due to land disputes and the meager price paid for timber by the companies to locals.

A resident of North Siberut and member of AMAPM, Andom Sabebegen, said the presence of companies and cooperatives in two villages upstream had reduced the quality and quantity of river water in the area. "Before they operated here in 1993, our sampan could still make it up the river, as far as Sotboyak and Bojakan villages, during nine months of drought. Now, if there is no rain for three days, the river dries up," he said. On the other hand, he added, if it rains for half an hour, the houses of people who live near the river are flooded.

1,000 orangutans disappear each year: Survey

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Apriadi Gunawan, Medan -- A survey by the Sumatran Orangutan Conservation Program (SOCP) found at least 1,000 orangutans in North Sumatra and Aceh provinces are disappearing each year due to poaching and loss of habitat.

According to the SOCP, there are only about 7,518 orangutans, 55 percent of them adult males, remaining in Aceh and North Sumatra provinces, from tens of thousands of orangutans in the 1980s. About 10 percent of the remaining orangutans are young males and females still being nurtured by their mothers.

SOCP scientific director Ian Singleton expressed concern on Saturday the wild orangutan population would continue to dwindle due to the increased pace of forest destruction, particularly in the Leuser ecosystem.

Singleton, a British national who has done extensive research on orangutans in Sumatra, said that like any other animals, the orangutan relied on the forest for survival. "Orangutans prefer to dwell in forests 1,000 meters above sea level because of the quality of fruits there," Singleton said. In addition to forest destruction, rampant poaching is also a contributing factor to the disappearance of the orangutan, he said.

Singleton said that at the 21 orangutan location points in Aceh and North Sumatra, many of the orangutan populations were below 500. The smallest population is in Linge, western Aceh, where the orangutan population is only eight. In Tapanuli, North Sumatra, the population is 500. He said that only the area of Aceh Singkil, along the western and eastern parts of Leuser, had an orangutan population of over 1,000.

"We have been conducting surveys for the past 15 years to get to these locations, at once inputting data on their populace. This survey involves many foreign and local researchers, and from the surveys, we conclude that each year at least 1,000 orangutans vanish," Singleton told The Jakarta Post.

The outreach and education manager at the SOCP, Anna Pombo, said her office was working to guarantee the continued existence of orangutans in the wild. Since its founding in 1999, the SOCP has established an orangutan quarantine center in Sibolangit, North Sumatra, and a reintroduction center in Bukit Tigapuluh, Jambi, Pombo said.

She said that in the last two years, the quarantine center had handled 53 orangutans that were seized by the authorities or entrusted to the center by various related agencies. As many as 36 of them have been sent to the reintroduction center in Jambi. "This conservation program is part of our efforts to preserve the orangutans and their habitat from threats of extinction. If their population is not stabilized, we will lose them in a decade's time," said Pombo.

Industrial waste kills shrimp business

Jakarta Post - September 20, 2004

Multa Fidrus, Tangerang -- Hundreds of shrimp farmers who manage some 2,000 hectares of shrimp ponds along the northern coast of Tangerang regency complained of industrial waste in Cisadane River destroyed their shrimp farms.

"We don't know how and when to resume business since we depend on the river estuary to do the farming," Sarta, 45, one of the shrimp farmers in Tanjung Pasir village, Teluk Naga district of Tangerang regency told The Jakarta Post recently.

The farmers had stopped business last year after losing lots of shrimp prior to the harvest season for the last two consecutive years. "I suffered Rp 18 million (US$1,956) in losses in 2002 and another Rp 8 million last year. We decided not to continue shrimp breeding and changed to mujair (fresh water fish) and bandeng (milkfish) breeding, which is easier but doesn't sell as well as shrimp," Sarta added.

Similarly, Fuad, 40, a shrimp farmer in Sukawali village, Pakuhaji district, said that he had also suffered more than Rp 10 million in losses over the past two years due to the deadly waste that polluted his seven hectares of farming.

But now the farmers have another fear -- a higher level of sea pollution that could also destroy their bandeng farming. "Therefore, I always monitor media reports on waste ... If the waste level is high we will harvest the fish before they are killed so we will not suffer too much in losses," Fuad said.

Sarmili, 56, of Marga Mulya village, Mauk district, added that a more serious problem being faced by shrimp farmers was the continuous beach erosion that had claimed 70 hectares of ponds in his village. "Soon, other ponds will be gone as well," he said.

Head of Tangerang's Fishery and Maritime Agency, Yodhie Rossadi, confirmed that the high level of pollution had forced the shrimp farmers to change to other businesses. He also revealed that at least 52 erosion points along the 51-kilometer northern coast was caused by illegal sand mining activities.

"It is already difficult for us to cope with the beach erosion. It's the local residents themselves who mine the sand -- it's their only source of living," he told the Post.

Islam/religion

Hasyim resumes top Nahdlatul Ulama post

Jakarta Post - September 22, 2004

Sari P. Setiogi, Jakarta -- After almost four months of hectic political activities as the running mate of presidential candidate Megawati Soekarnoputri, Hasyim Muzadi will return to the top post in the country's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) on Wednesday.

A plenary meeting of NU executives decided on Tuesday to restore Hasyim's status so as to enable him to prepare for the organization's national congress in Surakarta, Central Java, scheduled for the end of November. Other NU executives who were involved in the presidential elections will also have their suspensions lifted.

"After being actively involved in the [residential] election, it is now time for the NU executives to return to the organization and prepare [themselves] for the national congress," deputy chairman Fachruddin Masturo announced during a press conference here.

NU named Masdar Farid Mas'udi its acting chairman after Hasyim was declared fit to contest the election as Megawati's running mate late in May. In their decree, the NU board of patrons set no specific date for the end of the suspension period, except to say that their non-active status would be lifted when the election process was complete. "There may be several interpretations about when the process of the election is over, but we agreed that it happened when the election day took place," said Fachruddin.

Hasyim and Megawati qualified for the September 20 run-off, but with over two-thirds of the vote counted their defeat by more than 20 percentage points seems assured.

Aside from Hasyim, other NU executives have been involved in the elections, including deputy chairman Rozy Munir who sits in the Election Supervisory Committee as the deputy chairman and several executives who were part of the campaign team for the Megawati- Hasyim ticket.

Masdar said he was relieved to return the top post to Hasyim. "So now NU leaders and supporters in the grassroots can work together to prepare for the upcoming national congress," he said.

Regarding the congress, which will elect an NU chairman for the 2004-2009 period, Fachruddin said the participants would discuss several new regulations, including one that deals with the status of a chairman who is contesting the presidential election.

The congress would also discuss improvement in the curriculum of Islamic boarding schools as "the vanguard of development of Islam". The congress will be held between November 28 and December 2.

Armed forces/police

SBY may finally bring military under civilian control

Associated Press - September 21, 2004

Slobodan Lekic -- The retired four-star general heading for victory in Indonesia's presidential elections, may use his background to succeed where the country's post-dictator Suharto politicians have so far failed, bringing the powerful military brass under civilian control.

"If anyone can undertake serious reforms in the military, it's [Susilo Bambang] Yudhoyono," said Ken Conboy, a military expert and former deputy director at the Asian Studies Institute in Washington. "Certainly nobody can doubt his credentials for the job," said Conboy, who now lives in Jakarta.

The generals have played the role of kingmaker in Indonesian political life since 1966, when a junta headed by Gen. Suharto ousted founding president Sukarno and ushered in 32 years of military dictatorship.

Suharto used the armed forces to brutally repress any opposition. In exchange, he appointed loyal generals to key government posts and the rubber-stamp legislature. Although their overt role has been declining since Suharto's ouster in 1998, this year they gave up their block of 38 reserved seats in parliament, the generals still retain immense behind-the-scenes influence which many say presents a serious threat to democracy.

The generals were instrumental in forcing both of Suharto's successors, B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid, from office. In 2001, they surrounded the presidential palace with tanks, forcing Wahid to stage a quick exit. His deputy, Megawati Sukarnoputri, was picked for the top job most likely because she promised to give the generals a free hand.

Because the US$2.5 billion defense budget is clearly inadequate, the military has traditionally financed up to 75 percent of its needs through a solid, nationwide network of military-owned companies and foundations. These institutions are beyond government control and are never audited. There is widespread speculation that a large chunk of their profits end up in the pockets of the brass.

Paradoxically, the military, long known for human rights abuses, also has found a new path to legitimacy and influence via the war on terrorism. The US administration, and particularly Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, a former ambassador to Jakarta, see the armed forces as a bulwark against Muslim radicalism in Southeast Asia.

But analysts have repeatedly warned that unless the military is brought under civilian control, Indonesia will never grow into a true democracy. "If there is ever any threat to democracy in Indonesia, it will always first come from the military," said Salim Said, a political columnist and military analyst.

A vast majority of Indonesians have placed their hopes in Yudhoyono, a retired US-trained four-star general who served as Megawati's top security minister, to rein in the armed forces. Despite his close ties with the top brass, he named 16 retired commanders to his campaign team, including former armed forces chief Adm. Widodo Adisutjipto, he is widely regarded as a reformer.

No one denies that the path of military reform will be slow and tortuous. "Washington is very keen to offer some carrots [for military reform] and Yudhoyono is just the man to work with," said Greg Barton, of Australia's Deakin University. "He is still well liked enough by his military institution to get the backing for some changes."

Salim cautioned that Yudhoyono would face an uphill battle if he attempted to implement radical reforms, because serving officers remain indoctrinated with a distrust of civilians and a conviction that they have a right to oversee the affairs of the civilian state. "We need to pour more money [into the defense budget] if we ever hope to have the armed forces function as a professional military," said Erman Amsori from Padjajaran University. "Yudhoyono is the best man we have to do it."

Yudhoyono has already demonstrated his willingness to take on the military in matters which he sees as a serious threat to Indonesia's territorial integrity. In 2002, he negotiated a cease-fire in Indonesia's bloodiest conflict, the long separatist war in Aceh province. But his efforts collapsed when Megawati pulled out of the deal under pressure from hard-line generals. Still, international mediators say they expect the peace process to restart under a Yudhoyono administration.

Military ties

Terrorism key in US support for Indonesian army

Asia Times - September 23, 2004

Conn Hallinan -- Behind a recent, highly controversial indictment by the US Department of Justice, the administration of President George W Bush is maneuvering to revive military ties with the Indonesian armed forces (TNI, for Tentara Nasional Indonesia), one of the world's most oppressive institutions.

In late June, US Attorney General John Ashcroft persuaded a federal grand jury to indict Anthonuis Wamang for a 2002 ambush in West Papua that killed two Americans and an Indonesian and wounded 12 others. The indictment identifies Wamang as a commander in the Free Papua Movement (OPM, for Organisesi Papua Merdeka) and, despite strong evidence to the contrary, clears the Indonesian military of charges that it engineered the incident.

Human-rights groups, longtime observers of Indonesia, and even the Indonesian police say the indictment ignores evidence tying the ambush to the most notorious unit of the TNI, Kopassus. Indeed, rights groups charge that Wamang works for Kopassus, not the OPM.

The OPM has been fighting a low-key rebellion since Indonesia -- with US support -- short-circuited a United Nations-sponsored election and engineered the seizure of West Papua in 1969. West Papua is the western half of the island of New Guinea and Indonesia's easternmost province.

The United States has a long relationship with the TNI, dating back to the 1965 coup that overthrew then-president Sukarno and led to the murder of more than 500,000 communists and leftists. According to declassified US documents, US intelligence helped finger some of the coup's victims. The United States also supported Indonesia's violent takeover of East Timor in 1975.

The Bush administration is currently pushing Congress to fund an International Military Education and Training (IMET) program for Indonesia, but Congress is holding up the monies because of Indonesia's resistance to investigating the 2002 ambush seriously.

The United States first restricted Indonesia's IMET funds after the 1991 massacre of 270 civilians in Santa Cruz, East Timor. All military ties were suspended in 1999, when TNI-organized civilian death squads ravaged East Timor after that country's independence vote. And IMET funds were suspended after the 2002 West Papua ambush. While the TNI blamed the OPM for the attack, not even the local police agreed.

Two months after the August 31, 2002, ambush, a police report found that the OPM was an unlikely suspect because the group "never attacks white people". It concluded that TNI involvement "was a strong possibility". At the time, US officials concurred with the charge of TNI involvement. A "senior [Bush] administration official" told Raymond Bonner of the New York Times, "there is no question there was military involvement. There is no question it [the ambush] was premeditated."

According to the Australian newspaper The Age, "The initial police report on the attack concluded: 'There is a strong possibility' that the attack was 'perpetrated by members of the Indonesian National Force Army; however, it still needs to be investigated further'." But further investigation may be problematic. According to The Age, "Indonesian police investigators were threatened, evidence appeared to be planted, and the crime scene appeared to be interfered with."

On the day of the attack, two vans were ambushed leaving Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, the largest gold and copper mine in the world. The attacker, or attackers, used M-16s, a weapon that has never been associated with the OPM, many of whose members use bows and arrows. OPM spokesperson John Ondowame denied any involvement in the attack. "I can say with assurance that the incident did not involve the Free Papua Movement," he told the press in Melbourne.

It would hardly be surprising that the TNI, in particular Kopassus, would engineer such an incident. In 2001 seven low- level members of the unit were jailed for murdering Papuan independence leader Theys Eluay. The seven are appealing their two-to-three-year sentences, which, given the track record of such appeals for war crimes committed in East Timor, are likely to be overturned. Out of 18 Indonesians charged with war crimes for their behavior in East Timor, Indonesian courts acquitted 12 and convicted six. Of the six, four had their sentences overturned, and one had his sentence halved. The one civilian charged, the former governor of East Timor, was sentenced to three and a half years. The minimum jail time for such crimes is 10 years.

In the meantime, Jakarta has ignored the UN-sponsored court in East Timor, which has charged almost 400 people with war crimes, including former Indonesian presidential candidate General Wiranto. Indonesia has refused to hand over any of the defendants. Besides discrediting the OPM, the military had a financial stake in the ambush. Freeport McMoRan paid the TNI US$10.7 million in protection money from 2000 to 2002, and provided military officers with free airline tickets. The company stopped the payments shortly before the ambush because a new US corporate-responsibility law required disclosure of such payments. One intelligence analyst told Bonner it was "extortion, pure and simple".

But the stakes are much bigger than bribes and free airline tickets. Restarting the lucrative Indonesia-US arms pipeline and roping in a potential ally against what some in the Bush administration see as their future competitor -- China -- overshadow greasing the palms of local Indonesian military commanders. Indonesia could be an important link in the chain of bases and allies the United States is forging in Asia. Australia, the Philippines, Japan and India already have signed up for the US anti-missile system. The Bush administration says it is directed at North Korea, but the Chinese are convinced it targets their small missile fleet.

The US Department of Defense (DOD) has lobbied to end the ban on arms sales and cooperation with the Indonesian military, in spite of the latter's horrendous human-rights record in the rebellious provinces of Aceh, Maluku, East Timor and Papua. "I think it is unfortunate that the US today does not have military-to-military relationships with Indonesia," said Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Rumsfeld's right-hand man, Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, argued, "More contact with the West and the United States and moving them in a positive direction is important both to support democracy and support the fight against terrorism." Wolfowitz served as US ambassador to Indonesia during the Ronald Reagan administration (1981-89).

But others argue the opposite. Karen Orenstein, Washington coordinator for the East Timor Action Network (ETAN), said, "History demonstrates that providing training and other assistance only emboldens the Indonesian military to violate human rights and block accountability for past injustices."

The Indonesian military's "worst abuses", said Ed McWilliams, former State Department political counselor for the US Embassy in Jakarta from 1996-99, "took place when we [the US] were most engaged".

"Abuses" is a mild term for what the TNI has inflicted on such places as East Timor and Aceh. According to the United Nations, Indonesia's 24-year occupation of East Timor resulted in 200,000 deaths, a higher kill ratio than Khmer Rouge leader Pol Pot managed in Cambodia. After the vote for independence in May 2002, TNI-sponsored militias went on a rampage, killing up to 1,500 people, forcing another 250,000 into concentration camps in West Timor, and destroying 70% of East Timor 's infrastructure.

In May 2003, Indonesia broke a ceasefire with the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakin Aceh Merdeka, or GAM), sent in 40,000 troops and 10,000 police, and sealed off the oil-rich province in Sumatra from journalists, human-rights groups and even international aid organizations such as the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), the Red Cross and the World Health Organization. Much of Aceh's civilian population has since been moved into strategic hamlets and, according to Amnesty International, there is "widespread ... torture of detainees in both military and police custody".

As in East Timor, the military, with the blessing of Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri, has organized "civilian defense groups that are little more than death squads". According to the government-run National Commission on Human Rights, the military has been recruiting, training and arming such groups, which are then unleashed on the population.

The TNI has also been accused of aiding the right-wing Muslim organization Laskar Jihad, which is associated with widespread violence in Maluku and is increasingly active in West Papua.

Ashcroft's indictment has stirred outrage among human-rights groups, both in West Papua and the United States. An August 4 joint press statement from three Papuan rights groups, ELSHAM (the Institute for Human Rights Studies and Advocacy), LEMASA (the Amungme Tribal Institute) and YAHAMAK (the Women and Children Human Rights Foundation), expressed "grave concern over the actions of US Attorney General John Ashcroft" and accused him of "suppressing evidence" that the groups had supplied Federal Bureau of Investigation agents probing the ambush.

The groups say that Wamang, the target of the indictment, was "a business partner of Kopassus". The groups also charge that the Indonesian military "routinely uses civilians to stage attacks", and that the former police chief of West Papua, General Made Pastika, concluded that the TNI was behind the attack. According to the three groups, none of this evidence was presented to the grand jury.

In his statement announcing the indictment, Ashcroft said, "The US government is committed to tracking down and prosecuting terrorists who prey on innocent Americans in Indonesia and around the world. Terrorists will find they cannot hide from US justice."

But according to a 2002 study by the US Naval Postgraduate School, the TNI's links to groups such as Laskar Jihad has made it "a major facilitator of terrorism". As John Miller of ETAN pointed out, the Indonesian military carries out and sponsors terrorism throughout the huge archipelago. "Who," he asked, "are the terrorists here?"

[Conn Hallinan is a lecturer in journalism at the University of California, Santa Cruz and a foreign-policy analyst for Foreign Policy in Focus. Posted with permission from Foreign Policy In Focus.]

Business & investment

Economy likely to test Yudhoyono presidency

ABC Radio - September 23, 2004

Indonesia's outgoing President Megawati Sukarnoputri has addressed the nation's highest Assembly, the MPR, detailing her achievements over three years in office. Mrs Megawati has refused to concede her loss until official results from Monday's election. Her former security minister and retired General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono meanwhile is forming his plans for his first 100 days in office as Indonesia's sixth president, and his first test, the economy.

Presenter/Interviewer: Karon Snowdon

Speakers: Joseph Setioso, CEO BCA bank, Indonesia's largest private bank; Kamala Chandrakirana, Commissioner for women's rights; Jakarta residents

Snowdon: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is heading for an emphatic win in Indonesia's first democratic election for a president. That doesn't mean people have complete faith in him. Businessman Alexander Leonardus, who voted for Megawati has reservations.

Leonardus: I feel pessimistic with SBY because as you see he's coming from the military. And as you know the military is rejected by all the Indonesian people.

Snowdon: Mr Leonardus says having inherited a stable if not booming economy and tough anti-terrorism laws from his predecessors, SBY can succeed if he sticks to his promises.

Leonardus: From the macro-economic, now its very good, I can do my business. Even if we have a bomb in your Australian Embassy we can enforce the terrorists with this law. Snowdon: The troubles afflicting Indonesia's economy are compounded by the activities of Jemmah Islamiah but they go far beyond that to deep rooted structural problems.

President Megawati's failure to deal decisively with some of them and the lack of talent, even corruption of some of those close to her, contributed to her loss. The Chief Executive Officer of Bank Central Asia, one of Indonesia's largest private banks, Johan Setioso rarely if ever gives media interviews. But he's speaking out with a plea to the new president to quickly deal with the country's number one problem.

Setioso: The problem of unemployment that is the major problem which has social repercussions, maybe the first thig he should focus on is the unemployment problem.

Snowdon: And what steps are needed to deal with the unemployment problem?

Setioso: There is only one way and that is higher growth. Increase investment, increase export-related activities.

Snowdon: What would investors respond to that's going to bring back investors, domestic and foreign, to spend money in this country and bring back jobs.

Setioso: Let us be practical. One of the first things investors will look at is the new cabinet line-up. That would be a basis for investors to trust the new government.

Snowdon: Kamala Chandrakirana, Chair of the Commission on Violence Against Women looks closely at the labour market as part of her job.

Chandrakirana: The biggest source of new employment is Indonesians leaving the country to find employment abroad. For us, women are one of the biggest parts of the labour force right now that are bringing income for their families and they're workign in the most vulnerable sectors of employment.

Snowdon: The consultations being held with political parties and the public at the house of the president in waiting over these last few days are -- we're told, to help get the right team in place.

With a reputation as indecisive and very conservative, Kamala Chandrakirana says SBY will need to instill confidence through his choice of his cabinet alongwith some quick results.

Chandrakirana: For sure, he will have a short honeymoon period. I think his first 100 days will determine what happens. He will face oppositionin the parliament so if he can't get support frm the public, which is what brought him to power, within the first 100 days I think it will be almost an impossible job.

Snowdon: The business community also wants a more professional legal system and budget reform, along with a cut in fuel subsidies. The state budget commission is currently proposing to triple the cost of fuel subsidies to a staggering 6 billion US dollars. While not sustainable, cutting subsidies in the past has led to significant social unrest. Bank executive Johan Setioso says care should be taken to protect the poor.

Setioso: The question is how to increase the fuel prices such a way the impact on the poor will not be too heavy and what social network can be extended to the marginal poor that they will not fall in a desperate situation. CEO of Bank Central Asia Johan Setioso who like many others including Alex Leonardus is quietly optimistic about the future without being estatic about the new president.

Leonardus: SBY can stand by his speech and his promises, he will be the best president for now.

US criticizes arrests of Newmont executives

Jakarta Post - September 25, 2004

Sari P. Setiogi and Fabiola Desy Unidjaja, Jakarta -- The United States Embassy has criticized the Indonesian police for detaining without charge several executives of P.T. Newmont Minahasa Raya, a mining company with its headquarters in Denver, in the US.

In a press statement released on Friday, the embassy warned the move could further harm the investment climate in the country. "We respect the independence of Indonesia's judicial system, but feel very strongly that the detention of PT Newmont employees is inappropriate," the statement says.

The statement came while National Police investigators questioned Newmont president Richard Ness for a second time in as many days over allegations the company dumped hazardous waste into Buyat bay in North Sulawesi. The police have named six Newmont executives suspects in the pollution case and jailed five of them, including American site manager Bill Long and Australian production and maintenance manager Phil Turner. "Throughout the investigation, PT Newmont has fully cooperated and made their staff available to the Indonesian authorities," the US embassy said.

Newmont lawyer TM Luthfi Yazid said police agreed to suspend the detention of Ness as he was suffering from a swollen aorta. Luthfi said, Ness needed therapy to keep his blood pressure low or undergo surgery.

Police are considering possible charges related to a violation of article 46 of Environment Law No. 23/1997 on corporate crime to implicate Ness.

Luthfi said police should not have detained the Newmont executives as they had been cooperative so far. "We will always cooperate with the authorities and follow all legal procedures. Long, for example, came back from abroad on Tuesday evening to Indonesia to meet the police summons," said Luthfi.

Also on Friday, police were unable to question State Minister for the Environment Nabiel Makarim as the investigators were not given presidential consent to investigate a member of her Cabinet. Indonesian law requires the police or prosecutors to seek the president's approval to question high-ranking state officials, including ministers.

National Police chief Gen. Da'i Bachtiar said the police might scrap Nabiel from their list of witnesses to be questioned. He said the investigators would instead quiz the minister's deputies or other staff to tell the police whether Newmont had regularly reported its disposal waste system.

Newmont has been accused of polluting Buyat bay, where it has been dumping tailings since 1996. The police said their forensic tests found that the level of heavy metals in Buyat bay exceeded the safety levels set by the State Minister for the Environment Office.

The company has denied the allegations and backed up their denials with other independent tests, which proved the bay was normal, but media reports have shown pictures of villagers living close to the mine with skin diseases and large lumps they claimed were caused by pollution from the mine. Newmont blames the illnesses on local miners who do use heavy metals in their processing.

Fuel subsidy problem awaits Bambang

Straits Times - September 23, 2004

Jakarta -- The ability of Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is poised to become the country's sixth president, will be sorely tested when he comes to grips with the country's fuel subsidy policy.

Top officials and businessmen agree that the subsidy needs to be reviewed urgently as it is ineffective and puts too heavy a burden on the state budget. "We suggest the elimination of subsidies on bunker oil, premium petrol and industrial diesel oil. The subsidies for automotive diesel oil and kerosene should be maintained for the moment, as these types of fuel are mostly used by the poor,' Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Purnomo Yusgiantoro said on Tuesday.

The current government launched several years ago a programme to gradually scrap fuel subsidies, but it put the programme on hold this year to avoid unrest breaking out during the election. In the past, fuel price increases have led to widespread protests and riots -- a political liability for any president.

The situation was made more acute in March when Indonesia -- an oil producer which is a member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) -- became a net importer for the first time. Initially, the Megawati government had allocated 14.5 trillion rupiah (S$2.7 billion) for the fuel subsidy this year. However, since the government is determined not to raise fuel prices despite soaring worldwide oil prices, the subsidy may more than triple from the initial figure.

In the revised 2004 state budget, currently being deliberated by the House of Representatives, the government proposed a whopping 63 trillion rupiah fuel subsidy, almost equal to the 69.6 trillion rupiah proposed for development spending throughout the year.

For next year's budget, the current government has proposed 33.6 trillion rupiah for the subsidy, at an assumed oil price of US$24 (S$40) per barrel.

In reality, the subsidy could be much higher as there is a consensus among oil traders that the realistic price of oil will be about US$40 per barrel throughout next year.

The ballooning fuel subsidy has caused concern as it has hampered the government's efforts to promote education and health programmes.

Critics note that it has been enjoyed by car owners rather the poor, and a large volume of the subsidised fuel has been smuggled out of the country.

Mr Bambang pledged earlier in a televised debate to apply a more targeted and "pro-poor' fuel subsidy in order to strike a balance between reducing pressure on the state budget and protecting the poor.

Smooth election boosts economic sentiment: Experts

Jakarta Post - September 21, 2004

Dadan Wijaksana, Jakarta -- Waves of optimisms greeted the trouble-free runoff vote on Monday, with experts hailing the smooth process as a powerful starting point towards the much- needed revival of investor confidence in the economy.

The greatest message that the vote can convey to the business community, domestic and international, is that democracy indeed suits Indonesia, and thus provides guarantees of greater political stability, according to businessmen, a top economist and a government official on Monday.

The team of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his running mate Jusuf Kalla look to win in a huge landslide over incumbent president Megawati Soekarnoputri and her running mate Hasyim Muzadi for the leadership of the country over the next five years. The provisional tally, with some 10 percent counted as of Monday night had Susilo leading by a comfortable margin with 59 percent of the vote. The official announcement, however will not be for another two more weeks, by the General Elections Commission (KPU).

"But regardless of who wins, I find the process itself -- which so far has been peaceful, as a strong capital for the business community in terms of confidence. "Especially as what we're seeing is a huge leap in democracy, from the old regime to the direct presidential system," Djimanto, secretary-general of the Indonesian Employers' Association (APINDO) said. Djimanto said the runoff election should put an end to the lingering uncertainty among the business community here and abroad.

Chatib Basri, deputy director at the Institute for Economics and Social Research at the University of Indonesia (LPEM-UI) agreed. "This sends a strong signal to investors, especially international businesspeople, that Indonesia can, and is able to, cope with a crucial process of democracy without disrupting political stability," Chatib said, while emphasizing that foreign investment was an important element of higher economic growth.

Despite the optimism, Djimanto and Chatib warned of a herculean economic task awaiting the next government. "There is no such thing as a quick fix, due to the complexity of the problems gripping the economy. "This momentum will only be maintained if the next government introduces a string of policies within the first 100 days in power. That could show that they are serious about fixing the economy," Chatib said.

On investment, the government could start by instantly removing all the rulings that are detrimental to investment such as exorbitant severance pay for fired workers, the lengthy bureaucracy for obtaining business licenses, the taxation system, etc. "Those things can be implemented soon by the government, yet the message will be powerful to the investors."

Djimanto said in principle, what the business community needed was a leader who opted to provide a clear down-to-earth action plan, rather than lip-service approaches. "This is what's been lacking. In 2003 for instance, the government declared it 'Investment Year', and boasted of incentives to increase investment. But, still to this day, we have seen no results."

Subronto Laras, president of automaker Indomobil Suzuki International, said it did not matter who wins as long as the government listened and acted upon the needs of the business community.

What's stopping Indonesian brands from competing globally

Jakarta Post - September 21, 2004

Michael J. Webdell, Jakarta -- Nike, Samsung, Tommy Hilfiger, Guess, Sony: These are just a few brands popular to people across the world. In shopping malls from Jakarta to London, and New York to Seoul, they are symbols of a lifestyle consumers pay premium to be part of. But whether one pays US$50 for their Hilfigers in Los Angeles or 10,000 yen ($91) in Tokyo, many of these products have something more in common than a brand name or a high price tag: Many of them are made in Indonesia.

Of course, there's nothing shocking about that. For years, Indonesia has been manufacturing the products branded by some of the world's most prestigious companies. Rather, with the country's clear capability to manufacture such highly sought- after goods, it is puzzling why Indonesia lacks any globally- known brands of its own.

To be fair, Indonesia has its share of strong domestic brands. Aqua, Sampoerna, Indomie, Hoka Hoka Bento, and Lion Air clearly demonstrate Indonesian capability for developing and managing successful brand identity programs. So, if Indonesian business has the capability to manufacture such quality products, and has at least a general understanding of branding as a value-added marketing tool, where do Indonesian companies fall short in creating their own global brands?

Socially speaking, Indonesia is at a disadvantage for creating global brands. The modern concepts of branding and marketing are a creation of capitalism. And though Indonesia can be said a grand contributor to capitalism's development, the country's part has been largely limited to supplier.

Of course, suppliers of commodities and low-cost products are a very important part of our economy; and I am not attempting to discount them. But after centuries of learning its well-defined place in the economic food chain, excluded from the value-added aspects of branding, many Indonesian businesses lack the profound knowledge and confidence to undertake this initiative. Many don't realize they could ever attempt such a thing as creating a global brand.

However, the good news is the knowledge and skills required in creating and managing an internationally successful brand can be learned. And, in my opinion, the lack of confidence for marketing brands globally is unfounded. This opinion is based on my previously outlined points that Indonesia does produce the high- quality goods marketed by many of today's global brand leaders, and that Indonesia has many successful domestic brands. With a little initiative, these resources can be successfully applied internationally.

Perception of what Indonesian business can and can't do is the real gremlin in creating global brands. It is always shocking to me when business and government give into the notion that the country's slower performance on exports is helplessly related to issues like anti-Muslim sentiment, or inclusion on "travel warning" lists.

These issues don't need to consume Indonesia's brand identity when the country has so much to offer. Presenting them as the cause of current economic conditions is an inaccurate rationalization that plays into negative stereotypes and takes our focus away from discovering new economic growth opportunities. These are mental obstacles by which business does not have to be stymied.

In my experience, business is business. As far as foreign corporate buyers are concerned, they just want a good price, quality products, excellent service, and an easy, safe transaction. Where the end consumer is concerned, unless they are buying a cultural-specific or country-specific product such as French perfume, they don't really care where a product is made. A prime example is Tommy Hilfiger who used the slogan "An American Original" to support their brand identity. I am not aware of many Hilfiger products that are actually manufactured in The United States. But with annual sales of about $1.9 billion in 2003, clearly the power of Hilfiger's brand is what sells his products. Whether they are made in the United States, Indonesia, or any other country doesn't really matter.

Hypothetically, an Indonesian company might do just as well creating and marketing its own "original American" brand. We just need the vision, like Tommy Hilfiger had, to create something as unique and wonderful.

Indonesian business must start studying the success of global brands and figuring out how to start participating themselves. By creating new brands of their own, or adapting suitable Indonesian brands to international markets, they can create greater sales for their companies and increase exports for the country while keeping a greater share of the Indonesian-made products' end value in Indonesia.

But we all have to get past this engrained image of what we think Indonesia is and start making it what it can be. It is up to Indonesian investors and business to gain the knowledge, take the initiative, and realize that Indonesian brands can be globally successful too.

[The writer is a marketing and management consultant.]

Lack of standards harm electronics industry: Adhi

Jakarta Post - September 21, 2004

Zakki P. Hakim, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta -- A lack of effective regulations governing the standards of electronic goods in the country is hurting the industry at a time when ASEAN is set to liberalize the sector by 2007, according to an industry leader.

The secretary-general of the Indonesian Electronic and Electrical Appliance Industries Association (Gabel), Adhi Sukmono, said this situation was primarily the result of regulations on standards being handled by two ministries: the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.

"There has been an argument between the two ministries on who has more authority in regulating standards on electronic products," he told The Jakarta Post on Monday. "This has delayed the standardization of electronics," he said.

According to Government Decree No. 102/2002 on national standardization, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is authorized to regulate safety standards for electrical appliances. However, its authorization is limited to domestic products. The Ministry of Industry and Trade regulates the standards for all consumer products, both exported and imported, including electronic goods.

Adhi said the absence of government standards contributed to the massive inflow of cheaper imported electronic goods, hurting locally made products. "Deindustrialization is happening," he said, referring to the closing down of some electronics manufacturers. He said that when the government imposed standardization on electric fans in June of this year (the first time a standard was imposed on electronic goods in the country), it was deemed too late as only four domestic manufacturers had managed to survive the fierce competition with cheaper imported products (whether legally or illegally imported), particularly from China. The four were Maspion, Panasonic, Cosmos and Sekai. The association claims that 50 percent of the electronic products traded in Indonesia are illegally brought into the country.

Adhi predicted that with the member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) planning to liberalize tariffs in the electronics sector in 2007, the local industry would face more difficulties as the government would be unable to control the influx of imported electronics without effective standards. He suggested the government end the regulatory dualism on standardization.

According to Adhi, most ASEAN countries have already set up a single standardization authority, such as the Standards, Productivity and Innovation Board in Singapore, the Standards and Industrial Research Institute of Malaysia and the Thai Industrial Standards Institute.

Currently, Indonesia's exports of electronic products stand at about US$7 billion per year, the lowest among ASEAN countries. Thailand, for example, exports some $23 billion worth of electronic goods per year.

Opinion & analysis

Editorial: Local Responsibility

Far Eastern Economic Review - August 26, 2004

Megawati Sukarnoputri was right. In a pre-independence day address, the Indonesian president rejected intervening in a series of court decisions that have resulted in the acquittal of four security officials in trials related to violence in East Timor in 1999, as well as that of a military officer charged over an incident in 1984 in Indonesia that resulted in 23 deaths.

Miss Megawati correctly noted that politicians shouldn't interfere with the judiciary. While the West long has urged judicial independence in the developing world, it needs to accept it when courts there don't rule the way it might wish. Still, it must be acknowledged that the decisions leave unfinished business; but here Miss Megawati offers a prudent option.

After the East Timor decisions from an appeals court emerged, the New York-based Human Rights Watch called for the United Nations to create an international tribunal. Miss Megawati, instead, backed establishing a truth-and-reconciliation commission, such as did post-apartheid South Africa. There are two reasons why the tribunal should be opposed and why Miss Megawati's offer makes sense.

The first relates to the fact that, though we admit that criticisms of the recent acquittals have resonance, Indonesia ultimately must take responsibility for the actions of its own people. After all, unlike Rwanda, for example, Indonesia has a judicial system that can be roused to function, and, importantly, is reforming itself. Even if some found the acquittals disappointing, interfering there would be counterproductive to establishing norms of independence and would upset ongoing reforms elsewhere in the legal system. And just as bad would be for Indonesia to roll over for the UN, implicitly admitting that it sees no hope for its own courts.

In the absence of legal closure over the East Timor violence, the truth commission Miss Megawati backs would allow Indonesians an avenue to confront that episode and decide what to do. It is another way for Indonesians to take responsibility.

The second reason to oppose a UN tribunal and support a truth commission is, quite simply, because East Timor thinks so. In an interview with the Reuters news agency on August 9, Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta said: "The government of East Timor does not contemplate lobbying for an international tribunal to try the crimes of 1999 because we know this would undermine the existing relations" between Dili and Jakarta. Instead, Mr. Ramos supports the idea of a truth and reconciliation commission of some form. When there is such a degree of agreement between the two directly involved parties to move on, it doesn't reflect well on the international community to try to stand in the way.

Voting ends with a Bambang and whimper

Asia Times - September 21, 2004

Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar -- Indonesia's first direct presidential election has ended with a Bambang and a whimper. Surveys of results announced at the more than 500,000 polling stations give former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono more than 60% of the vote in Monday's runoff election against President Megawati Sukarnoputri. Official results won't be released until early next month.

After vigorous campaigns for legislative elections in April and the first round of presidential voting in July, Monday's ballot was a relatively restrained affair. Rules designed to minimize the chance of clashes between supporters in the head-to-head final election stage restricted the official campaign period to three days (with a three-day cooling-off period before the vote) and limited the candidates to indoor rallies. Anecdotal evidence suggests Monday's turnout fell below the 78% average for this year's earlier votes.

Ending with a whimper wasn't only the result of subdued appeals to tired voters. The two candidates offered little to choose from on the issues. In Bali, a Megawati stronghold that broke into riots when a backroom deal denied her the presidency in 1999 and where some disappointed supporters burned a tire on Monday, one voter shrugged: "Tomorrow SBY [Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono], or maybe Mega, but it's all the same." Megawati and Yudhoyono, her security minister until March, led an administration that delivered a tepid economy, rampant corruption and flagging reform, as the world's largest predominantly Muslim nation became a frequent target for anti-Western terrorists. Without a chance for a significant change in policies, voters opted for a change in tone.

Negative voting

Yudhoyono's unofficial victory indicates that voters opted for the hope of change and a stronger leader. "It's time for a change. Maybe things won't get better, but I don't think they'll get worse," another voter said. "Megawati hasn't done enough to deserve another five years."

That point highlights one key element of Yudhoyono's appeal: he's not Megawati. Despite his high post in Megawati's administration, Yudhoyono avoided blame for its mistakes, just as he's avoided the taints of corruption, human-rights abuses and authoritarianism common among Suharto-era generals. Yudhoyono seems to have a high Teflon content that the presidency will test severely.

Voters ignored a rash of rumors spread by mobile-phone text messaging that Yudhoyono had a Christian wife and was an agent for the US Central Intelligence Agency. Those charges underscored his potential vulnerability as a foreign tool: Yudhoyono was the favored candidate of Jakarta's diplomatic community and foreign investors; he attended a military college in the United States; and he led a United Nations force in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But those international links didn't produce a nationalist backlash among voters. Yudhoyono's lead after a peaceful vote has produced business-community optimism, a stronger rupiah and a stock-market bounce. But the joy won't last without key reforms, starting with a real war on corruption, that Yudhoyono didn't pursue as a top minister.

Electing Yudhoyono means voters have conquered lingering fears about putting a military figure back in the presidency just six years after the end of former general Suharto's repressive regime. Additionally, Yudhoyono's triumph underlines the diminished power of established political parties to influence voters in free and fair elections, particularly without a galvanizing issue.

To the consternation of many Western analysts and reporters, terrorism was not the central issue of the campaign, despite the 2002 Bali bombings, last year's blast at the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta, and the Australian Embassy attack two weeks ago. Both candidates agreed terrorism was a problem requiring presidential attention, and analysts acknowledge that police are doing their best to hunt down the perpetrators. But since both candidates bear responsibility for the bombings on their joint watch, there wasn't much room for them to attack their opponent's record on terrorism, or most other issues.

Change from within

Instead, the voting hinged on personalities. Yudhoyono projected a resolute image of strong leadership, building on his military background and public platform as Megawati's security chief. His superbly orchestrated, highly publicized exit from Megawati's cabinet in March added the patina of an outsider, even though Yudhoyono's influential roles date back to former president Suharto's military regime.

After his cabinet departure, Yudhoyono formed his own political group, Partai Demokrasi, which won 7.5% in April's legislative vote, good for fifth place in an election where all previously established parties lost support. He finished on top in the first round of presidential voting, with 33.5% in a five-candidate field. Pre-election polls suggested he might win the majority required for a first-round victory, but Yudhoyono's first-place finish reinforced the impression of strong grassroots support.

Megawati, meanwhile, failed to overcome her image as indecisive, arrogant, detached and more interested in power than policy. With the help of media consultants, she tried to recapture the reformasi leader aura that won her Parti Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P) the biggest legislative bloc five years ago. But that strategy often meant running against her record as president.

Parties over?

While trying to soften her image and reconnect with the masses, Megawati's campaign in this final round mainly focused on old- style politics. She formed electoral alliances with established political parties, including Golkar, Suharto's former ruling party, an association that undermined her reformist credentials. Perhaps more important, the April and July elections demonstrated that parties could no longer guarantee votes.

Golkar's endorsement of Megawati has wide implications for the new president and legislature. Many Golkar veterans favored ex- military man Yudhoyono and his running mate Jusuf Kalla, a leading Golkar reformer until he was expelled from the party last week. Some Golkar chapters resisted leadership pressure to campaign for Megawati, and backing a loser won't strengthen the hand of party chairman Akbar Tanjung. Tanjung says Golkar, with 128 of the 550 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR), will sit in opposition to Yudhoyono at the head of an alliance with PDI-P and five other parties controlling 300 DPR seats. (Yudhoyono's party and its allies have fewer than 100 seats.) However, the rift over the presidential endorsement -- preceded by Golkar's failure to get its candidate into the runoff -- may undermine the party's position and lead to the demise of this Suharto-era relic. A Golkar split could give Yudhoyono an opening to forge his own legislative majority, or it could put even more greedy factions around the table when the real challenge of governing begins. What promises to be a long-running sinetron (soap opera) starts on October 1, when the legislative session begins, weeks ahead of the presidential inauguration.

In Suharto's time, death tolls were routinely in the dozens during rigged election campaigns. This year's democratic marathon was free, fair and virtually without violence. That may be its greatest historic significance. Indonesia's voters have demonstrated they can handle democracy. If things don't get better, the blame should fall not on the people or the process but squarely on the politicians.

[Gary LaMoshi, a longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, has also contributed to Slate and Salon.com. He's worked as a broadcast producer and as a print writer and editor in the United States and Asia. He moved to Hong Kong in 1995 and now splits his time between there and Indonesia.]

Indonesia the loser in presidential polls

Asia Times - September 20, 2004

Manjit Bhatia -- In Indonesia's July 5 direct presidential poll -- the country's first since the corrupt Suharto dictatorship's downfall in 1998 -- contender Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono thumped incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri into second place. Yudhoyono won 33.58% of the popular vote, Megawati 26.29% and ex-general Wiranto 22.21%.

Wiranto, however, protested to the Constitutional Court that vote-counting irregularities had robbed him of second spot and a shot at facing off against Yudhoyono in the presidential runoff that took place on Monday. In the end, Wiranto's case was tossed out, and the besieged Megawati was thrown a lifeline. But this won't save Megawati from ignominious defeat. Or will it? If she -- or Yudhoyono -- were to win, would Indonesia be better off?

On assuming presidency in 2001, Megawati promised to end the shenanigans of the outrageously incompetent Jusuf Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid administrations. She promised Indonesians a brighter future. But in fact Indonesia has slid backward and sideways under her watch. It is torn by deep politico-ideological conflicts, including state-backed internecine wars in Aceh and West Papua, and state-condoned, bloody ethno-religious violence throughout the far-flung archipelago.

And Indonesia is still smarting from losing East Timor in 1999, after invading and colonizing it in 1975, and recovering from fanatical Islamist terrorist bombings in Bali and Jakarta. Years of Suharto-inspired insidious corruption and cronyism stay deep rooted and go unchecked by the regime, while the promise of reforming Indonesia's crooked justice system last year alone mired itself in its own farce; first over Golkar chief Akbar Tanjung's acquittal from corruption charges and then by the quashing of the death penalty for those accused of planning the 2002 Bali bombings.

Surely it's not all that dire in Indonesia. Take the economy, which has been stagnant since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. Now, though, there are signs it may be turning around. During 2000-2003, gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 3.8%. That's in stark contrast to the crisis years, when the economy was scorched and mayhem reigned in Indonesia as the republic nearly crumbled, stumbling from crisis to crisis amid the weak and clueless Habibie and Wahid governments.

So, strange that Megawati hasn't, during the post-July election campaign, staked a claim for bringing order to the economy, especially vis-a-vis her spectacular failure to do likewise on the political front. At no time has Megawati looked even remotely presidential. Still, it seems macroeconomic stability has returned. Economic growth has continued so far this year. After the late-1990s bailout by the International Monetary Fund and other state-nation donors, it's business as usual -- again.

Some macro aggregates do look impressive. Inflation was down from 58% in 1998 to a shade more than 5%, year-on-year, in late 2003. The rupiah has stabilized, despite threats from SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), bird flu and Islamic terrorists. Public debt, once hovering around more than 100% of GDP, is now 60% of GDP. The situation has improved so much so that Jakarta's Berkeley Mafia -- US-trained technocrats who lord over economic policy -- now say debt no longer chokes the economy. And the government will rein in the budget deficit to just 1.2% of GDP by the end of 2004.

Subscribers of Economics 101 are forgiven for thinking their faith in the free-market Holy Grail is just what Indonesia needs. Their naivete is fantastical if they believe the Berkeley Mafia's revitalized mantra. Thing is, Indonesia isn't out of trouble yet. Not by a long shot. Several things still are worrisome. The "recovery" is about as spectacular as the presidential contenders: both Megawati and Yudhoyono have daintily danced around economic issues throughout their campaigns. Indonesia's recovery also is not dynamic, its improvement unglamorous compared to the pre-crisis years. Even then, the high growth rates of "tiger" economies had merely masked numerous woes, all of which exploded in early to mid-1997 with a roller-ball dynamic.

For starters, the economy hasn't fired up the way it has in the other afflicted East Asian economies. The recent bounces in Indonesia's stock market aren't indubitable indicators of growing investor confidence in an economy still horribly bereft of real reforms. Instead, it mostly has been responding to institutional investors from Singapore and Malaysia bottom-fishing cash- strapped Indonesian corporations such as banks and telcos. The euphoria will stay since Jakarta will continue selling off distressed state-owned assets.

But most key economic sectors, from agriculture and manufacturing to oil and gas, are suffering. Banks still aren't lending. If the economy is buoyant, it's because consumer spending is underscoring the "boom", inspired by pump-primes that have benefited Indonesia's moneyed classes. All this, in turn, without substantive and balanced policies, will potentially amount to fiscal suicide down the road.

That could be disastrous for strife-torn Indonesia and the immediate region. Take unemployment, which was 10.5% in 2003, down from 10.6% in 2002, but up from 8% in 2001. Jakarta says per capita GDP rose to US$3,200 in 2003, and that only 27% of Indonesians now live under the poverty line. But in terms of human development, the 2003 Human Development Index ranked Indonesia 112 of 175 countries studied.

Government studies say about 10.24 million Indonesians are unemployed, but other independent research reveals that 38.2 million are jobless. If the economy keeps growing at under 4%, jobless numbers will swell by another 1.1 million a year, at least, with 2.5 million Indonesians entering the tight labor market each year and vying for 1.4 million low-paying jobs. That explains why, like the Philippines, millions of Indonesians turn into cheap, exploited and abused migrant workers in countries such as Malaysia. Indonesia, like the Philippines, has increasingly become a nation that produces coolie labor for its richer neighbors.

All this makes a mockery of Megawati and Yudhoyono serenading voters at campaign rallies while their speeches are spiked with rhetoric and banal and wholly devoid of substantive policies and vision. Megawati had hailed 2003 as the "Year of Investment". It fizzled, despite a new investment bill aimed at luring foreign investors by liberalizing all economic sectors -- even some of the most crony-owned and protected. During 1997-99, foreign investment fell thunderously, then stagnated. In 2003, it again fell. Today, roughly 60% of all approved foreign direct investment is the result of dubious changes in project status.

Even the meagre 3.8% GDP growth could easily come unstuck as global interest rates come under sustained pressures to lift, thanks in no small part to rising world oil prices. And oil and gas, once the harbingers of the New Order economy, today are bearers of new uncertainties. Up to the third quarter last year, exports were up slightly to 7-8%, compared to the same period in 2002, but non-oil and gas exports, especially agriculture and manufacturing, have steadily slowed. The Berkeley Mafia will feverishly be hoping the United States, Japan and Singapore economies can sustain Indonesia's GDP expansion: all three buy 40% of Indonesia's total non-oil and gas exports.

Once a boon to the economy, oil particularly, despite recent price hikes, is becoming a major economic headache at a time when foreign investors are shying away from plonking their money in an economy that hasn't basically reformed, in real terms, and poses rising economic costs and politico-security risks to their operations. Pertamina, the state-owned oil company, was once a handsome cash cow for boosting the economy's bottom line -- and for lining the pockets of Suharto and his cronies as well as politicians, bureaucrats and private capitalists.

Problem is, as investors sit on the sidelines, export income falters, and as Indonesia's proven oil reserves continue to dwindle (down by 13% since 1994), the budgetary outlook will simmer with dire problems, and many essential public expenditure programs will be shelved. That means increasing the potential for political instability as more people try harder to eke out an even more meager living. Many more Indonesians will be piled on to the growing scrap heap of joblessness and poverty. And they'll be open to exploitation by Islamic radicals and extremist groups such as the murderous Jemaah Islamiyah.

Problems will worsen more if, in the face of falling state revenue, Jakarta seeks to raise money through higher direct and indirect taxes, selling off more state-owned domestic and foreign assets, raise foreign loans, and increase its debt exposure. That will render Indonesia's already precarious budget even worse off. And if the economy should contract -- and there's no reason it won't, given the deep-rooted problems it faces and that it's on a completely different trajectory than other regional economies -- neither Megawati nor Yudhoyono will be in positions of strength to save Indonesia from a crisis far worse than the one the Asian crisis meted out.

That's because both Megawati and Yudhoyono are fundamentally incompetent political leaders. And incompetent leaders make incompetent managers of a complex economy and a complex society, such as Indonesia's, in an increasingly complex world. Though the results from Monday's run-off election remain unknown, neither has a clue on how to fix Indonesia's dire problems; that has been clear in the way they've skirted questions of economic policy and reforms during their campaigns. They can croon and sway all they like, but it won't help Indonesia out of the dark times ahead.

Editor's note

At press time, Yudhoyono had taken 57% of 987,369 votes counted in the two-way race with Megawati, the election commission reported. About 151 million people are registered to vote in Indonesia, and the final result will only be declared officially on October 5.

Manjit Bhatia is an academic and writer in Australia. He specializes in international economics and politics, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region.

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Dumb and dumber

Jakarta Post Editorial - September 25, 2004

If politics were reality TV, democracy would mean electing the most-popular idols on TV shows through a cellular phone short message service (SMS).

For those who love watching reality shows there is nothing wrong with sending SMS messages to vote for their idols -- indeed in this country's it's a burgeoning craze.

Most people would say, surely, that no one has the right to erode this support for such an odd fad, especially as TV-station programmers say they are only responding to public demand.

However, one could also argue that such demand appeared only after TV stations began aggressively airing reality shows, like AFI, Indonesian Idol and Kontes Dangdut Indonesia (KDI), which have now become "basic needs" for many viewers.

Reality shows are part of a huge business cycle, which supposedly benefits all those involved, although it could be argued viewers get only pseudo satisfaction by being marginally -- sorry, interactively -- involved in the drama. However, to the programmers the viewers are nothing more than "fund-raising" objects.

Those concerned with education have long complained about such reality shows, which they contend do not contribute anything to learning and actually remove their child stars away from their studies by isolating them in "special training" sessions for several months. Thanks to the never-ending advertisements for these shows, the parents also enjoy them.

In short, TV viewers are suffering from "reality-show fever", a sickness brought on by too many inept and vacuous entertainment shows.

Quiz shows are other questionable programs that in many ways ignore people's real intelligence. In a hypothetical situation a postgraduate student loses in a quiz, which offers big money, simply because he does not know the measurements of a table tennis table. The question by the quiz host is somewhat ridiculous in the first place and propagates the wrong notions of what intelligence is -- not analysis, criticism or extrapolation -- but general knowledge.

It is now obvious the media and the public can do nothing to defend the people's right to get more quality programs on TV stations. While controversy lingers about the worth of these shows, TV viewers have been offered other meaningless programs, which also interactively involve them -- again through SMS messages.

It is quite difficult to understand why Penghuni Terakhir (The Last Dweller) and Touch the Car would be attractive to TV viewers.

Penghuni Terakhir is a contest in which participants live in a house and are expelled by viewers -- it offers a Rp 1 billion house as it's highest prize, while Touch the Car is an endurance contest in which the participants' stamina is tested by having to continually touch a car for three days without interruption. Viewers are asked to choose their favorites contestants.

Again neither program has anything of significance to offer to the public. Viewers watch how the Penghuni Terakhir participants express their "determination" to win the contest and how they are expelled because they get the least number of SMS votes from the viewers. The expulsion round takes place once a week, while other episodes show the contestants quarreling with each other over trivial things.

In Touch the Car a participant who touches the car the longest is declared the winner and has the right to take the car home. Producers of the shows often suggest people who dislike reality shows just turn off the box or change the channel. However, the problem is the commitment of the media to provide educational material on television.

Aren't there any quality alternatives to offer during prime time when children are watching? The quality of the country's human resources is at a disturbing level, and a proactive media, along with a better education system would improve the situation.

While the government has a limited budget to improve the quality of education, all levels of society, including the media, should work to solve this sorry state of affairs.

Entertainment or reality shows should not necessarily be banned. But anything which threatens to retard the country's intellectual development should be shelved.

Otherwise, our society will get dumb and dumber as our neighbors get smarter.

The people's president not just for the elites

Jakarta Post Opinion - September 25, 2004

Satish Mishra, Jakarta -- As Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono starts on his final preparation to take over the reins of -- ower, it is worth remembering what most observers and pundits were saying about the implications of the presidential elections on Indonesia's daily life and development prospect less few days ago. The broad consensus was that it would make little difference as to who would be president. Forces of history and habit and even more of personality would combine to leave Indonesia more or less as it was before.

Many even welcomed the fact that little was expected to change. For some, that itself signaled a sort of stability, better than the chaos and disorder to which democratic politics would easily degenerate. According to this view, little change was welcome change. The markets would move very little. There would be no lurch towards extremes. The economy would slowly continue to recover. Indonesia was fragile. It could not afford any more shocks. It could do without an undue enthusiasm for democracy.

Of course there is a deeper reasoning of sorts for such a status-quo position. The arguments are well known. At times they can even be clever. For a start, political parties which nominated the presidential candidates remain without solidly worked out policy platforms.

Second, the House of Representatives (DPR) is fragmented by a large number of medium and small parties. Deal making and political accommodation is therefore likely to be the order of the day.

Third, neither of the two candidates in the second round seemed to be a towering personality, the kind that many look for to save the country from their favorite enemies: Religious fanatics, criminal gangs, rapacious businesses, ethnic bigots and arrogant foreigners. There is no hint of a ratu adil (messiah) in the coy personality of an Ibu Mega or in the calm and intellectualism of Pak Susilo. For many they were hardly the stuff of which historic saviors of the country are made of. Fourth, there is the usual resort to culture. Indonesia is governed by a culture of subservience, of respect of authority and tradition. What little dissidence there was in the national psyche has been rooted out by the long years of New Order direction and control. Ergo, it matters little who is president. Indonesians will be Indonesians. It will take more than direct presidential elections to change some of these strongly held beliefs regarding authority and the place of the individual in the community.

According to this view, gotong royong (mutual help), and not the Hobbesian world of political self-interest, defines the cultural leanings of the Indonesian public. The implication is obvious. Don't be fooled by the outward appearance of Indonesian democracy. Scratch the Indonesian democrat and you will find the tame conformist.

Things however, are not as bad as that. The incoming president is not just any old President of Indonesia. Susilo is the first "people's president" in Indonesian history. He possesses the one characteristic which matters above charisma, decisiveness, guile, intellect and honesty, all arguably important in a born leader. He is a president with an unshakeable mandate to govern on behalf of the all the people of Indonesia. That gives him and his future government a political legitimacy which no previous president has ever had. As such he is an embodiment of Indonesia's political will.

If this sounds like a boring and a banal observation, think again. Not very long ago countless reports and cables from field offices of international agencies and embassies of foreign powers all seemed to highlight the absence of political will in Indonesia in pushing through a sustained program of reform; in combating corruption, in counteracting illegal logging, in reforming the judiciary, in privatising state owned enterprises, in curbing the power of recalcitrant district administrations, in fact in almost anything in which these countries and agencies had an interest.

Yet today we are in the throes of an overwhelming reassertion of political will, not by a ratu adil but by a diverse nation of over 214 million people. The old political machines are in disarray, baffled and defeated by the transparent calculus of greed with which they tried to manipulate the Indonesian public.

Seven long years after the first wave of Reformasi, the people have voted for Susilo's call for a Second Wave of Reform and his promise to enter into a new Social Contract intended to give ordinary Indonesians a place in the new democracy. That is the enormity of the change that so called passive Indonesia has brought about, without fanfare, without regalia, without self- publicity, without prevarication, without foreign pressure and foreign help.

That does not make the job of governing Indonesia easier. Public expectations are at an all time high, all the more so for having dipped so low in recent years. The reform agenda is long. To implement it requires the construction of a strong and effective government and policy processes which are both inclusive and fair. Failure might well mean the end of Indonesias second flirtation with democratic governance.

Even if current constitutional rules make a return of outright autocracy unlikely, the inability to bring to the people at large key dividends of democracy: jobs, food, education, health care and physical security might move the country to extremes of ideology and leadership by rhetoric and demagoguery. There is much at stake and the time is short.

The genius of Indonesia, and perhaps of Susilo, lies in providing an unmistakable mandate for reform in a democratic setting, a reform which must be rooted in the equality of status and in the principles of social justice fundamental to all functioning democracies.

This means going back to the reform drawing board; counterbalancing the need for local initiative and enterprise with national unity and social cohesion, improving the quality of economic growth rather than just focussing on its quantity, tempering the ruthless pursuit of efficiency with patience and compassion for those adversely affected by its dislocations, working out ways of playing a more active role in the world community as its fourth largest member, establishing a culture of democracy and pluralism in addition to the rules and laws which govern its procedures.

Such a subtle balance of alternative pressures and claims requires above all a democratic president, skilled at resolving disputes and building compromise and consensus, some one who can lead the way, not by fiat and threats but by vision and example. Dont be surprised if the people of Indonesia may have just made the right choice.

[The writer is Head/Chief Adviser of UNSFIR (a joint project of Government of Indonesia and UNDP). The views expressed here are strictly personal.]

Why Megawati lost

Jakarta Post Editorial - September 22, 2004

As the vote count rolls on it has become clear that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his running mate Jusuf Kalla are going to win in a landslide and lead the nation for the next five years. The results are showing a stunning defeat for the incumbent President, Megawati Soekarnoputri. By Tuesday evening, with approximately two-thirds of the estimated 120 million votes counted, the Susilo/Jusuf Kalla pair are in total command and lead by more than 20 percentage points.

These numbers are likely to hold, especially because in the heavily populated provinces of Central Java, East Java and North Sumatra, which have traditionally been bases of Megawati loyalists, Susilo is leading.

Now the question becomes, why did Megawati lose, despite all her efforts during the last 10 weeks to get reelected, to the point of maximizing the facilities offered by the office of the presidency? This interesting question will likely keep a great number of political analysts and research institutions busy in the months and years to come. However, at this early stage we would like to make a few preliminary remarks that perhaps could help reveal the drastic socio-political changes that have been taking place in Indonesian society.

Apparently, the majority of the Indonesian electorate were on Monday expressing their ethical rejection of a culture of permissiveness that the Megawati leadership (with the assistance of her husband, Taufik Kiemas) has been spreading, not only within the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), but throughout the important agencies of the Indonesian government. Corruption by political leaders and government officials, perfected during the later years of President Soeharto's tenure and practiced almost blatantly during President Megawati's administration, has indeed been a constant problem in Indonesia. Because of the cynical attitude of those leaders of PDIP, the majority party professing to adhere to the basic principles of democracy, social justice and transparency, the Indonesian public was forced to conclude that enough was enough.

Another significant factor in Megawati's defeat was probably the limited intellectual weight of her leadership and the poor quality of her government's policy decisions, though of course, there are always exceptions to the rule. The organized dialog of the presidential candidates with selected panel members last week, televised nationwide, showed in an embarrassing manner, that Megawati simply could not fathom the questions posed to her. On the other hand, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono displayed an impressive intellectual aptitude by presenting coherent statements on a wide range of issues. The preliminary results of the September 20 presidential election clearly reflected the strong yearning for change that exists among Indonesians, as well as the prevailing opinion that this nation deserves leadership, which adheres to moral principles, imbued with a more respectable intellectual quality. Although the full and detailed results of the September 20 runoff presidential election have not been made public, it is not too early to point out that drastic and significant changes have taken place, affecting the social psychology of Indonesian society, with far-reaching political consequences.

In the years to come, this country's new leadership should constantly remember that, politically speaking, the majority of the Indonesian populace has reached a level of independence that is not easily swayed by massive public relations campaigns, nor by clever money politics. At the same time, however, this new development in the form of a newly found socio-political independence constitutes a factor that the new leadership under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla will have to reckon with.