• Malaysia deports 1,200 illegal Indonesian workers - Associaed Press
• Strike at Jakarta hotel puts end to festive activities - Straits Times

• Megawati and her generals - South China Morning Post

• Irian rebels capture two Indonesian policemen: Report - Associated Press
• Women cover up in Aceh - Associated Press
• Wahid leaves Papuan independence leaders off schedule - Agence France-Presse

• Hutomo escapes through window - South China Morning Post

• Indonesia to restructure national intelligence system - AFX-Asia
• Women bear heaviest burden - Jakarta Post
• New group seeks separate Maluku republic - South China Morning Post
• Bombing death toll rises to 17 - Jakarta Post
• Ex-ruler's backers 'behind church attacks' - South China Morning Post
• Year of violence and anarchy ahead, agency warns cabinet - South China Morning Post
• A bloody Christmas eve unites divided Indonesia - American Reporter
• Violent shadows darken democracy - Sydney Morning Herald
• Who did it? - Straits Times
• Patience, piety exercised by Christians in the minority - South China Morning Post
• Army knew about church attacks - South China Morning Post
• Sunday Bloody Sunday - Jakarta Post

• Indonesia's human development index declines further - Asia Pulse
• Indonesian economy is not all it seems - Australian Financial Review

Tragic tale of a Timorese life stolen

Mark Dodd, Dili -- Somewhere in Indonesian West Timor, in a camp controlled by some of the most notorious militia thugs who fled East Timor after its people voted for independence in August, 1999, there is a 16-year-old girl called Juliana dos Santos.

She has just delivered a baby and may be pregnant again. United Nations human rights officials desperately want to hear from her. So do her frantic East Timorese parents.

These are the facts in one of the most horrifying accounts to emerge from the mayhem that followed East Timor's vote for independence last year: Juliana dos Santos is believed to have been kidnapped as a war prize by Igidio Mnanek, the deputy leader of the notorious Laksaur militia.

Juliana was one of several hundred people sheltering in the grounds of Ave Maria Roman Catholic church in Suai when it was attacked by Indonesian security forces and their Laksaur militia proxies in an unprovoked assault on September 6, 1999, that left as many as 200 people dead, including three priests. Juliana's younger brother Carlos was among those killed. She may have witnessed his murder.

The Indonesian Government's human rights watchdog, Komnas HAM, in a report published on January 31, described what happened at the Suai church as indiscriminate killing, with the victims including men, women and children aged between five and 40.

In the chaos that followed the worst recorded atrocity after the UN-organised self-determination plebiscite in East Timor, Juliana was separated from her mother and taken to the district military headquarters.

It was there that the Laksaur militia deputy leader, Igidio Mnanek, seized the girl and proclaimed her as his "war prize". He had achieved earlier notoriety by stamping on the body of one of the priests murdered in the church.

Within days, Juliana was taken across the border, along with tens of thousands of other East Timorese, many of them against their will. She was next heard of at Raihanek refugee camp in Betun, West Timor.

Juliana's mother and her aunt were among the East Timorese herded like cattle across the border in September, 1999. Learning of her daughter's whereabouts, the distraught mother tried to arrange a meeting. But Mr Mnanek insisted on being present.

"Igidio Mnanek was there with four of his goons," said Galuh Wandita, a senior UN human rights official closely involved with the case. "Juliana didn't say anything but was in tears."

By April, Mrs dos Santos had returned to East Timor. She tried again for a meeting with Juliana at the Motaain border checkpoint but was not successful.

In June events took an ominous turn. In a letter received by the family, Juliana referred to Mnanek as "her husband" despite his acquisition of at least three wives.

"Obviously this is traumatic for her," Ms Wandita said. "She has borne him one child and may even be pregnant again. Perhaps she has forged a psychological dependency on Mnanek. She could also have written the letter under duress -- we just don't know."

Fate has not been kind to the dos Santos family. They have lost all three children. The first son died young from illness, the second was murdered in the Suai church massacre and now their only daughter has been kidnapped, raped and is living as a wife of one of the leaders of a militia gang responsible for the killing of her brother.

The recent news is that Mr Mnanek has disappeared. He was last seen more than a month ago boarding a plane in West Timor, bound for Jakarta. He had been summoned for questioning by Attorney- General Marzuki Darusman in relation to war crimes in East Timor -- a move opposed by the Indonesian military. Fears are held for Juliana's safety, as she knows so much.

East Timor says no thanks to thongs, teddies

Louise Williams -- Sydney, you can't rebuild East Timor with teddies and thongs. And you shouldn't even give a child a teddy to play with outside in a tropical climate, because the soft, new toy quickly becomes a filthy health risk.

Australian aid organisations, faced with another wave of festive season generosity, have launched an unusual new appeal for East Timor: "No more teddies and thongs, please."

So overwhelming, and in some instances so inappropriate, has been the response to the suffering in East Timor that scores of warehouses around Australia are still packed with donations that are of no practical use, or which are too expensive to ship.

In Dili, thousands of teddies representing last year's Christmas spirit are still clogging up a warehouse, with at least as many thongs.

More than a year after the carnage that sparked the Australian- led military intervention, generous Australians still want to send gifts.

The "no more teddies" campaign treads the fine line between offending donors and educating the public about what people really need in a poor, newly independent country like East Timor. It also challenges the notion that the poor in developing nations should be grateful for cast-offs.

At the top of the list of what is most needed is cash, says Ms Jenny Wells, the program co-ordinator of the Australian Council for Overseas Aid (ACFOA), the peak body for non-government aid organisations. Goods, however appropriate, are costly and logistically difficult to transport, and inappropriate gifts just create more work and have to be given to other charities.

"From the information we get from our members it seems there are lots of warehouses which are chock-a-block and other stuff which is sitting on wharves and no-one knows who it belongs to and where it is going," Ms Wells said. "'Teddies for Timor' and 'Thongs for Timor' were two slogans which captured people's imagination.

We got loads and loads of teddies, but teddies are not part of the culture for a start, and raise a substantial health risk because of the climate. If the weather is not dry and dusty, then it is wet and muddy and the teddies are filthy. "The thongs idea came from the defence forces and they were just inundated. Unfortunately, thongs are made locally and are cheap, so we could be undermining the local industry."

Ms Lorraine Lock, the communications manager of the Australian Foundation for the Peoples of the Asia-Pacific Region, said one of the most successful donations was 40,000 metres of new fabric which East Timorese women used to make clothes. Another useful clothing donation came from a school that was changing its uniforms.

Aid organisations are appealing for basic gifts: money, tools, pots and pans, paper, medical supplies and bats and balls for children to play with.

East Timor's avenues to justice blocked

Dan Murphy, Jakarta -- Shortly after Monitor contributor Sander Thoenes was killed in East Timor last year, it seemed as if justice would be served in his case. But that looks increasingly in doubt.

Initial reports suggested that those responsible for the killing were members of the Indonesian Army's Battalion 745, a unit based in East Timor. On September 21, 1999, the day Thoenes was shot to death, many of the battalion's soldiers rode in a convoy toward Dili, East Timor's capital, where witnesses say the soldiers encountered the Dutch journalist.

Indonesia was withdrawing its military because East Timorese voters, in a referendum organized by the UN on August 30, had voted overwhelmingly for independence after nearly a quarter century of Indonesian occupation.

A Monitor investigation published early this year linked the battalion to 13 murders or disappearances on that day alone, including Thoenes's. An investigation by an Australian coroner and an inquiry jointly conducted by a Dutch detective and an Australian military policeman, both reached the preliminary conclusion that Battalion 745 soldiers were responsible for the killing.

But the battalion's commander, Lt. Col. Jacob Sarosa, has insisted to Indonesian officials and other interlocutors that his unit was not involved in Thoenes's death, and his word has carried the day.

So 15 months on, the chances that Thoenes's killers will be brought to justice are sinking fast under the weight of international indifference and Indonesia's increasingly nationalistic political climate. "As far as I am aware," says Peter Thoenes, Sander's brother, "there has been no activity on the Indonesian side on Sander's case at all in the year 2000."

Peter Thoenes says he still has some faith in Indonesian Attorney General Marzuki Darusman because "he seems sincere." But Mr. Marzuki says his investigation has "stalled because of a lack of leads."

Though Marzuki designated the Thoenes murder as one of his five priority East Timor cases at the beginning of the year, he has not yet named any suspects. "This is proving much more difficult than we expected," he says.

Marzuki is fighting a battle to hold credible prosecutions in the face of opposition from military hardliners and populist politicians such as Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri. "Anything that can keep the pressure on will be well taken ... so that our investigation doesn't fizzle as a result of lack of concern," he says.

Marzuki hopes to prosecute 22 suspects in connection with four other cases of human rights abuses in East Timor by the end of February, though he's worried that Indonesia's parliament could simply veto the whole process.

A country's struggles

But as Thoenes's friends and family worry that the small solace justice could provide will not be theirs, Indonesia is bearing a heavier cost. Thoenes's murder occurred in the context of the country's struggles with a military accustomed to an atmosphere of impunity. Indonesia's military and police have routinely used torture and summary executions, and human rights investigators say tens of thousands have been murdered in recent decades.

UN and Indonesian investigators say Battalion 745's behavior fit a pattern of rights abuses by Indonesian troops intended to punish East Timor for its choice of independence in the 1999 referendum. More than 1,000 people were killed and 250,000 driven from their homes before an Australian-led multinational force arrived on September 20 and the last Indonesian soldier left shortly thereafter.

Mohammed Othman, the chief prosecutor for the UN Transitional Authority in East Timor (UNTAET), which is now administering the territory, is leading a separate effort to achieve some sort of accountability. Earlier this month, he indicted 10 men from a militia called Team Alpha on charges related to the massacre of nuns, priests, aid workers, and an Indonesian journalist on September 25 last year.

Team Alpha was created and trained by the Indonesian Special Forces, known by its Indonesian acronym, Kopassus, and worked closely with Battalion 745 at its headquarters in Los Palos, East Timor. Kopassus officers dominated Indonesian military policy in East Timor, and were often the controlling figures in battalions deployed in the territory.

Nine of the 10 suspects -- all East Timorese -- are in custody, and Mr. Othman says he hopes to convince some of them to testify against the Indonesian military in exchange for lighter sentences.

"We aren't just focusing on this matter as a separate event but are trying to link it up with the whole conduct of 745 on their route from Los Palos to Dili," Othman says. "We don't have enough evidence yet to pinpoint individuals, but we can say that the conduct of that battalion was criminal."

Othman, a Tanzanian who was formerly chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, says he doesn't have enough evidence to charge anyone with Thoenes's death. But he adds the Battalion 745 convoy arrived at Dili headquarters 20 minutes after Thoenes's death, and that its route was through the area where the reporter died.

"It's quite clear that nobody else could have killed Thoenes. The area was deserted then, other than the military, and the military had full control there," Othman says.

Pressure against trial

Of course, even if Othman builds a case, it's not likely he alone will be able to bring the guilty to justice. Most soldiers who served in East Timor are currently in Indonesia, and the military's lawyers have made it clear they will fight extradition efforts as a matter of national sovereignty.

"We want trials, but the trials must be held in Indonesia," says Adnan Buyung Nasution, chairman of the military's legal team, which calls itself the Human Rights Advocacy Team for Indonesian military and police. "This is a very basic matter of principle: It is a matter of national interest to protect our citizens."

Injustice to the nation

Indonesians, by and large, have been indifferent to the crimes in East Timor, seeing them as a footnote to an injustice they themselves have suffered. Many Indonesians see the loss of their onetime province as a humiliation engineered by foreign powers, and say the violence there was the result of a civil war.

Asmara Nababan, chairman of the Indonesian Commission on Human Rights, says he is "growing pessimistic" that a fair trial will ever be held. "The parliament doesn't understand why it's important for Indonesia to punish human rights violators."

A third avenue for justice -- a UN human rights tribunal -- seems to be growing ever more unlikely. Indonesian officials say they expect that China and Russia will stop any move in the UN Security Council to create such a tribunal. Both countries have been accused of abusing human rights in rebellious provinces of their own -- Tibet and Xinjiang, in China's case, and Chechnya, in Russia's -- and would thus have reason to stop any international inquiry into Indonesia's actions in East Timor.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan signaled as much when he ignored a recommendation from Mary Robinson, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, early this year calling for a tribunal. It was the first time such a recommendation has ever been rebuked.

Instead, Mr. Annan said the UN preferred that Indonesia carry out its own trials first, and that a tribunal could still be created if the UN isn't satisfied with the results.

But Nasution, the military's chief lawyer, says that would make a mockery of the Indonesian justice system. "If my clients are tried and acquitted here, they can't try them again somewhere else. That's double jeopardy."

[Monitor staff writer Cameron W. Barr contributed to this report.]
 

Labour struggle

Malaysia deports 1,200 illegal Indonesian workers

Kuala Lumpur -- One-thousand-two-hundred illegal Indonesian workers boarded an Indonesian warship for deportation back to their country, Malaysia's national news agency Bernama and news reports said Monday.

The workers, arrested nation wide after sneaking into Malaysia over recent months, boarded the ship Monday in the southern province of Johor under a joint Malaysian-Indonesian exercise.

Aseh Che Mat, the national immigration chief, was quoted as saying by Bernama that another 3,000 Indonesian illegals remain in detention centers. He did not say when they would be deported.

The deportation exercise was agreed upon by both countries following talks between Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid in October, the Star daily quoted Aseh as saying Monday. Aseh did not reveal the cost of the exercise but said that it will be borne by both governments.

Malaysia has more than 700,000 foreign workers and more than 1 million illegal immigrants, mainly employed in the construction sector. Most are from Indonesia.

Strike at Jakarta hotel puts end to festive activities

Jakarta -- Hundreds of workers of the five-star Shangri-La Hotel continued their strike for the third day yesterday, forcing the management to temporarily close their business activities and evacuate guests.

The situation has led the hotel to cancel all its year-end celebrations for Idul Fitri, Christmas, New Year's Eve and the New Year.

The hosts of these parties said they only knew about the problem at the hotel at the last minute when they were informed of the strike by the workers they had hired for the decorations. A wedding and wedding anniversary slated to be held at the hotel on Saturday evening had to be moved to other hotels.

"The hotel management did not inform us about this until a decorator for our party told us that the hotel workers were on strike," the host for the wedding anniversary said.

He added that the management later offered to move the event to Grand Melia Hotel in Kuningan, South Jakarta, on Shangri-La's account, which the family rejected.

The family of the wedding party eventually accepted the hotel's offer and hastily placed notices at every entrance of Shangri-La to notify their guests that the ceremony had been moved to Grand Melia Hotel.

It remained unclear whether the two families would sue the hotel for their failure in informing them of the problem earlier.

On the first day of the strike on Friday, some 20 room guests were at the hotel, while others had been moved to other hotels. On Saturday, all of the 668 rooms and 40 suites were empty.

Striking workers had closed the hotel's entrance gates and placed wooden planks across their latches. The gates were covered with posters and banners expressing their dissatisfaction with the management. The lobby was reportedly crowded with workers, who were seen sleeping, playing cards, and praying.

The hotel's top management and the representatives of its worker's union, in a meeting until late Saturday evening, failed to reach an agreement. The hotel's top management could not be reached for comment.
 

Government/politics

Megawati and her generals

Vaudine England -- It is well-known that the armed forces of Indonesia have played a murky and repressive role at each vital moment in the country's modern history.

And it is also well-known that Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri is a reformist and popular leader, who grew into politics through her opposition to the military-backed regime of former president Suharto.

So how can it be that these two disparate forces are getting together? That Ms Megawati feels comfortable with Mr Suharto's generals is no longer doubted, however, and the relationship represents an expression of a key strand in Indonesia's political history.

"The official talk denies it, everybody is cautious, but the trend is there," said military analyst Kusnanto Anggoro, of Jakarta's Centre for Strategic and International Studies, when asked about Ms Megawati and her generals. "In the last few months, the military leadership has been trying to approach Megawati and she has been responding to them, in case something should happen." That something could be the early accession to the presidency by Ms Megawati, due to President Abdurrahman Wahid's illness or hypothetical impeachment.

Grand though the talk of reformasi (reform) might be, it is clear the military is around as a political force for some time to come.

But how can Ms Megawati enjoy the courtship of an institution which has so abused her in the past? After all, the armed forces were the willing handmaiden to a nascent Mr Suharto in the mid- 1960s, after relegating her father and founding president Sukarno to ineffectual house arrest while still in office. It was directly involved in the attack on the headquarters of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), led by Ms Megawati, in July 1996. It helped in the killings of activists and students, many of whom were fighting to bring their heroine reformist, Ms Megawati, to power. And it directed the mass rampage in East Timor, earning proud Indonesia international scorn.

"She is beginning to think a bit differently, especially about military politics. She knows quite well that the attack on the PDI headquarters was because of Mr Suharto, not because of the armed forces as an institution. Of course many [senior generals] were involved in the attack, but now most of them are retired or out of her way," Mr Anggoro said. "If there is a rapprochement between [the army and Ms Megawati] this is not a sign of Ms Megawati's insensitivity to the past. It is a tactical alliance. She has no other choice."

One thing she has learned is that she cannot trust the Islamic parties and their leaders, such as Amien Rais. It was the Central Axis coalition of such parties which put Mr Wahid in as president, forcing her to take second place. But there is a lot more to her warm relationship with the military than that.

Once stripped of the reformist wrappings of the anti-Suharto struggle, Ms Megawati remains a genteel reformist, with a strongly conservative bent. She was never an activist, having spent an idyllic childhood in the presidential palace. Her ideology, as such, focuses on preserving her father's legacy.

That means the 1945 constitution which allowed for a strong central power, and the unitary state named Indonesia which her father helped found in 1945.

It includes the parts of Indonesia which came later, such as East Timor (in 1975) and Irian Jaya (1969). Her supporters call her the "Mother of the Nation". Though urban intellectuals backed her, her mass base among the "little people" rests on the symbolism of being Sukarno's daughter, a throwback to the now mythologised days of national unity and pride.

Such a curriculum vitae could not be better from the military's point of view. Here is a vast mass of popular support with the right pedigree, whose own ideas so closely match their own.

"Both are real nationalists," said Mr Anggoro, in a country where nationalism means national unity, not a breakup into smaller nations. "The armed forces are unhappy with Mr Wahid, partly because he doesn't perform, and partly because there's too much Islamic influence. This is the ideological perspective." In turn, Ms Megawati has expressed frustration at her limited role in government despite Mr Wahid's promise to delegate, describing early on in her job how she felt "like a waste basket".

Despite a national requirement for all Indonesians to have faith in God, the state her father founded was a so-called "secular nationalist" state -- and that is the way Ms Megawati and much of the old elite prefer it. This simplistic equation of politics -- between secular nationalism and state Islam -- helped keep Mr Suharto in office so long as he too represented the secular nationalist stream which Western funders prefer.

No matter what image one has of Ms Megawati at different moments, her political function these days seems to be to represent that same old-fashioned secular nationalist line -- and the men in uniform love it. The leadership now settling in after the latest reshuffle represents a suave but not particularly reformist elite.

With human-rights prosecutions threatening and funding dependent on private business more than official support, the armed forces have been riding rough new waves. A reversion to basic values, namely holding on to the nation state, may be one way to restore dignity.

"Now we are witnessing many regions demanding to secede from the state in an effort to deal with the multi-dimensional crisis. Therefore, I call on the people to share a united vision on national integrity and to eliminate their vested interests," new army chief General Endriartono Sutarto said recently.

"All Indonesian people have to possess and demonstrate a high spirit of nationalism and have healthy souls that will never support national disintegration ... As long as the Government works for the sake of the interests of the entire nation and people, we must be loyal. The most important thing is that what's best for this nation will be best for TNI [the armed forces]," he said.

That's fine by Ms Megawati. She has lent her elusive voice to army-backed moves to get a new security bill passed in parliament. She has joined the constituency which believes the American embargo on military supplies is partly responsible for fuelling chaos around the archipelago, rather than it being a reaction to the cruelty. And she has spoken about the need for Indonesians to stand up to outside pressure.

"We see as an irony that friendly countries, which have urged us to continue in our endeavours to advance and protect our people's human rights, are concurrently enforcing an embargo of supplies, means of mobility and the minimum equipment needed. This kind of policy allows social horizontal conflicts to be rampant, with all of the saddening consequences," she said.

Armed-forces commander Admiral Widodo Adi Sudjipto and territorial affairs chief Lieutenant-General Agus Widjoyo are leading calls for a re-examination of Mr Wahid's tolerance towards restive regions, arguing for emergency status in order to quell rebellion. Here too, Ms Megawati's heart is with the army, to defend her father's nation state. Some Western diplomats fear that if Ms Megawati comes to power sooner rather than later, even East Timor's integrity as an independent state may be at risk, although her allies point out she has accepted East Timor's vote.

Ms Megawati's friendships are most obvious with the strand of professional officers keen on adjusting, albeit as little as possible, to the newly open political environment, men such as generals Widjoyo and Sutarto. These men are not reformists in any civilian understanding of the word, but they are smart enough to see the need for adjustment in a post-Suharto world.

Some analysts like to link such men to the former armed forces chief General Wiranto but others demur, noting Ms Megawati has long been able to speak personally with General Wiranto without intermediaries. "It is wrong to conclude Wiranto is using Widjoyo to reach Megawati," Mr Anggoro said.

Personal ties are what matter, and General Widjoyo's father-in- law was a leader in the former Indonesian Nationalist Party (PNI), whose guiding light was Ms Megawati's father. Other friendly generals such as the retired Theo Syafei are close to a much earlier armed forces chief, Benny Murdani. But thoughts of conspiracy there should be treated with similar caution. "Benny is really quite frail since his stroke," Mr Anggoro said. "I expect people are using his name, but I don't think he's personally involved." He added: "The military still gets involved in politics, of course, but now the relationships are more person-to-person. It's not on an institutional basis but a personal connection."

Indeed, Ms Megawati has gone out of her way to cheer up the troops. She has visited two feared bodies, Kopassus special forces and Kostrad Army Strategic Command. She wore army fatigues, participated in parades, rode on heavy equipment, and delivered homilies on the need for self-respect and the duty to protect the nation. "It will be more important for you to develop a sense of belonging to your corps and your nation in such a way that will help you with your duties in securing our respected and beloved country," she said at the closing ceremonies of a Kostrad training camp in Cipatat, Bandung.

Her name was also linked to the petition of 45 generals led by former army chief Tyasno Sudarto, who opposed Mr Wahid's attempt to promote the high-profile reformist General Agus Wirahadikusumah. But she also told General Sutarto, who got the job, not to pursue prosecution of General Agus for allegedly exposing the army's dirty linen in public. She seems to want a united institution on her side, not a fractious collection of bitter men.

The people most worried about Ms Megawati's generals are the very reformists who first helped make her a leading opposition icon. They fear a resurgent armed forces, the likelihood of amnesty for generals in relation to serious rights abuses, and even a puppet presidency unable to withstand military manipulation. The challenge, a range of local voices agree, is for civilian politicians to learn their job properly in order to withstand the persistent wooing from the men in uniform.

As if aware of the question mark, Ms Megawati admits her leadership might be doubted. "I may give the impression of being weak, but everybody in the party knows I can be very tough when I am angry," she said.

Given that idealist students literally risked their lives to support Ms Megawati and to get the military out of politics, the new ties are turning some stomachs. Depending on one's point of view, the turnaround reflects how flexible and realistic, or how utterly compromised, the reformist agenda is.

And it highlights the conundrum that perhaps democracy and national unity don't always go together. That idea presents real difficulties for progressive circles in Indonesia, who still want their much-loved country to exist but fear the price.
 

Aceh/West Papua

Irian rebels capture two Indonesian policemen: Report

Jakarta -- Just days after Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid vowed to prevent the secession of the country's easternmost province, media reports said Wednesday that rebels in Irian Jaya had captured two members of the security forces.

The state Antara news agency said about 20 guerrillas belonging to the Free Papua Movement mounted a raid on Tor Atas district, near the provincial capital of Jayapura. They apprehended two police sergeants guarding the local church, the agency said. A police spokesman in Jayapura said the security forces were searching for the missing men.

Insurgents in the region on the western half of New Guinea island, 4,000 kilometers west of Jakarta, have been battling for independence since Indonesia occupied the former Dutch colony in 1963.

Women cover up in Aceh

Lely T. Djuhari, Banda Aceh -- Tired of daily jeers and insults, Natalia Dewi has done what she never thought she would -- she has started wearing a headscarf. Although Roman Catholic, the college student is among hundreds of thousands of women covering up in accordance with Islamic law in rebellious Aceh province.

Here, on the northern tip of Sumatra island, demands for stricter Islamic observance are intertwined with growing support for pro- independence guerrillas fighting secular Indonesian rule.

Thousands have died during 25 years of violence. Now the renewed bloodshed here and in other restive provinces has raised fears that religious tensions might one day be the tool to break Indonesia apart.

On Christmas Eve, at least 15 people were killed in bombings outside churches across the country. In the eastern Moluccan islands, where thousands more have died in sectarian violence, Christians accuse Muslim gangs of forcing them to convert to Islam at gunpoint.

In Aceh, the new enforced fashion for women is the most overt sign of change. Tight clothes, short skirts and see-through fabrics are out. Arms and legs must be covered.

Shopkeepers in Banda Aceh, the provincial capital, say scarf sales have almost doubled. "It's getting too much. Every day people shouted at me for not covering my head. I just couldn't take it anymore," said Dewi.

Indonesia is the world's most populous Islamic nation. About 90 percent of its 210 million people are Muslim, with Christians comprising a tiny minority among Aceh's 4 million people.

In most parts, Islam mixes easily with local culture and traditions. Many women go bareheaded, alcohol is sold and government leaders push a national creed that advocates religious tolerance.

But in Aceh, Islamic observance has always been stricter. It was one of the first places in the sprawling archipelago to come into contact with Muslim traders from Arabia nearly 1,000 years ago. The Acehnese proudly call their homeland the "Porch of Mecca," and claim their devoutness sets them apart from the rest of Indonesia.

Many fear that if Aceh breaks away, other provinces could follow and the country of 17,000 islands could disintegrate. Desperate to keep Indonesia intact, President Abdurrahman Wahid has bowed to Acehnese demands for the Islamic code called Sharia, even though it runs counter to the secular principles followed since independence from the Dutch half a century ago. He hopes it will blunt demands for full independence, which he flatly opposes.

The concession wasn't easy. Wahid, a Muslim scholar himself, advocates tolerance and has warned against Islamic extremism. "Islam doesn't advocate force," says Zaitunah Subhan, an adviser at the Women's Affairs Ministry in Jakarta. "Narrow-minded interpretations are not allowed."

It is unclear how much Sharia law will be imposed in Aceh. Alcohol is already banned. Religious leaders stress, however, that there are no plans to emulate Islamic states where criminals are flogged, the hands of thieves cut off and adulterers stoned to death.

Nowadays on Banda Aceh's streets, the few women who don't follow an Islamic dress code are ostracized and sometimes physically attacked. Aceh's Muslim vigilante groups raid gambling halls and shops selling alcohol. Last year, a group rounded up women they accused of being prostitutes, shaved their heads outside a mosque and paraded them through the streets.

But it is not all coercion. Many Acehnese Muslim women comply willingly. Policewomen, nurses and government employees wear headscarves as part of their uniforms, as do female fighters in the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement.

Indonesia's highest-ranking woman, Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, rarely covers her head. But she did so last week when she visited Aceh. Suraia Kamaruzzaman, a feminist, says she started wearing a scarf in 1991, "but I stopped a year ago because I felt that women's dress was being politicized."

Chik Rini, a 26-year-old photographer, has worn a headscarf since her teens. "People look at me with more respect. I feel more at peace because I'm not as vain," she said. "Women are not treated as sexual objects if they wear headscarves."

Wahid leaves Papuan independence leaders off schedule

Jakarta -- President Abdurrahman Wahid has left independence leaders in Indonesia's Irian Jaya province off the schedule of a two-day visit there which started Monday, a member of the pro- independence Papua Presidium said.

"We have had no invitation," Presidium moderator Willy Mandowen told AFP. "There are no plans for any meeting between Presidium members and Gus Dur," he said referring to the president by his nickname.

Mandowen, however, said the Presidium's deputy leader, Tom Beanal, may be included in a group of community leaders who Wahid is scheduled to hold talks with in the southern mining town of Timika on Tuesday. Beanal is chief of the Timika-based Amungme people.

The 31-member Presidium -- five of whose key members have been in jail for almost four weeks on subversion charges -- have been advocating dialogue and a non-violent approach to the independence struggle.

Wahid, a tolerant Muslim cleric, arrived in Irian Jaya's capital Jayapura at around 5pm Monday. He is scheduled to break the Islamic fast with the city's Muslim community before celebrating Christmas with Jayapura's majority Christians.

Mandowen said he believed Wahid was visiting Irian Jaya to "bring back his commitment to developing democracy and human rights in Papua."

Papua is the locally-preferred name for Irian Jaya, Indonesia's easternmost province, which lies on the western half of New Guinea island.

Exploitation by Jakarta of its vast mineral, oil and timber resources, and brutal military tactics, has bred separatist sentiments over the past 30 years.

In a visit to the province 12 months ago Wahid promised dialogue with separatist leaders, agreeing to change the official name to Papua and allowed the flying of the separatist Morning Star flag.

But Wahid's tolerant approach has been overruled by Jakarta. The name change has been rejected, independence leaders jailed and a new ban imposed on the flag -- moves which have been brutally enforced by the police. The heightened crackdown by Jakarta has been met with a rise in violence by extreme separatists in recent months.

Mandowen said he had little hope that Wahid's visit would solve any of Papua's problems. "If that's his concept, I don't think he will succeed because the central government still has no coherent steps, it lacks co-ordination, and it's wrought with substantial problems," he said. "They don't even know how and when to have dialogue."

Wahid has twice said he wants the five jailed Presidium members released, according to two Papuan community leaders, but police and senior ministers have rejected his request. The detainees, including Presidium chief Theys Eluay, have since said they will refuse any premature release, insisting they want their names cleared of subversion charges.

Mandowen said he hoped during his visit that Wahid would see "how the Papuan people are yearning for peace." "And that despite the loss of more than 20 Papuans' lives over the flag, they still want to make peaceful dialogue."

It was hoped Wahid's trip would open up a new opportunity for fairer and more democratic dialogue, Mandowen said, adding that the president should also push for human rights violations, including the killing of people for raising a flag, to be tried.
 

Human rights/law

Hutomo escapes through window

Jake Lloyd-Smith and Reuters in Jakarta -- The fugitive son of ex-president Suharto was caught by police after two months on the run -- but escaped custody by jumping out of a window, President Abdurrahman Wahid said yesterday.

The tale of extraordinary incompetence by the authorities comes after police have already faced a tide of criticism for not apprehending Hutomo "Tommy" Mandala Putra. Despite intensive efforts to track him down, Hutomo has been evading the police since being sentenced to 18 months' jail for his part in a land scam.

In comments carried by the online edition of the Jakarta Post, Mr Wahid said Hutomo escaped custody in a small town in East Java. "Around two weeks ago, a policeman managed to arrest ... Tommy, but Tommy told him that he wanted to speak to me, saying he had the taped conversation with me which was kept by his lawyers.

"Then the policeman went outside [the room] to convey his message via cellular phone to me," Mr Wahid was quoted as saying. "I told the policeman that there is no such taped conversation and I ordered him to go inside the room and just arrest [Hutomo], but the latter had fled the room through a window."

Many Indonesians believe that Hutomo -- who amassed a vast array of business interests when his father was in office -- has already left the country. Others say that Hutomo has been using his considerable wealth to pay off local authorities and avoid detection.

A police source in East Java said that Hutomo was almost caught earlier this month after a convoy of four cars was stopped by police near a ferry crossing linking East Java to the resort island of Bali. He was noticed inside one of the cars.

But after several minutes, Hutomo's convoy sped off into East Java, and police were unable to catch them despite giving chase and setting up roadblocks over the province. The source did not mention the telephone call the policeman was said to have made to Mr Wahid, or give any further details.

Hutomo has managed to evade the clutches of police despite an international manhunt and the fact he is one of Indonesia's most recognisable faces. Police have searched the elder Suharto's home in Jakarta and those of other family members several times.

Photographs of prosecutors trying to peer over the gate of Hutomo's Jakarta mansion in pouring rain on November 3 when they first went to take him to jail, only to find he had slipped out hours before, still haunt Mr Wahid's administration.

While all of Suharto's six children amassed great wealth during their father's rule, none attracted as much criticism as Hutomo. Critics have accused the Suharto family of corruptly stashing away as much as US$45 billion (HK$350.9 billion) during the autocrat's 32-year, army-backed rule. They deny any wrongdoing.
 

News & issues

Indonesia to restructure national intelligence system

Jakarta -- The government plans to restructure the national intelligence system, the Jakarta Post reported, quoting defence Minister Muhammad Mahfud.

"I, along with Coordinating Minister for Political, Security and Social Welfare Affairs, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and State Intelligence Coordinating Agency (BAKIN) Chief Arie Kumaat, have been assigned by the president to restructure the system," Mahfud said.

The restructuring will include the introduction of a new agency, the State Intelligence Body (BIN), to replace the current BAKIN, he said. Unlike BAKIN, BIN will adopt an integrated system comprising various state intelligence bodies.

Mahfud said the defence ministry will also establish a new unit dealing with intelligence affairs to support intelligence and counter intelligence activities.

It will take the form of a directorate general and will have two directors. "The presidential decree on the new directorate general and the directors has been signed on December 21, 2000," he said.

Women bear heaviest burden

Indonesia commemorated Women's Day on December 22. The plight of women during the crisis of the past few years was among the highlights of a recent conference in Leiden on Indonesian women. Linawati Sidarto, a Leiden-based journalist, shares insights from the four-day talks.

Leiden, The Netherlands -- In the poem titled "Woman" author Damairia defiantly declared in 1959 that Indonesian women should no longer be "ornamental flowers," and neither should they be "discarded flowers -- seller of cheap sweat, half-paid laborers." Almost half a century later, the poet's dream remains just a dream, as research in various Indonesian regions consistently shows that, particularly during hard times, women bear the brunt of the misery.

What do women in Irian Jaya and Makassar, South Sulawesi, have in common? While divided by language, geography and culture, they suffer the same fate during times of need: they work harder than anyone else, and at the end of the day, get the least amount of food on their plates.

"Women in Makassar, especially those with little education, tend to let men in their families eat first. During normal times, this is not a problem. However, in times of crises, women are the prime targets for malnutrition," said Baego Ishak, lecturer at Makassar's State Islamic Studies Institute IAIN Alauddin.

Similar observations on women in Irian Jaya were made by Mientje Rumbiak, who teaches at Jayapura's Cendrawasih University.

Ishak and Rumbiak were among the 23 presenters at the four-day conference "Indonesian Women and Crises: Past and Present, Opportunities and Threats" at Leiden University in the Netherlands in mid December.

Participants at the conference, organized by the Women Studies Working Group, came from various ethnic and professional backgrounds.

Papers presented covered regions in Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Irian. Themes were equally variable, from labor and social issues to politics.

Women laborers also get the shorter end of the stick during hard times, as shown by research done on communities in Central and East Java. Keppi Sukesi of Malang's Brawijaya University pointed out that female plantation workers in East Java, most of whom fall into the category of casual rather than permanent workers, were the first to lose their jobs when the crisis hit.

Women workers in the metal industry in Batur, Central Java, suffered a similar fate according to a study done by Gadjah Mada University's Susi Eja Yuarsi. She pointed out that while women often become the main breadwinner during crises, in reality "socially they are still placed in a very low position compared to men."

One of the consequences of the above sentiment is that outside assistance meant for women is often nicked by men. Gadjah Mada's Naniek Kasniyah, who has done research in Irian Jaya, said that agricultural tools donated specifically by the government for women, who often perform heavier physical work than men, were ultimately used by the latter.

Sukesi noted that while women have to scramble to scrape additional income for their families in times of need, they are also still expected to do the bulk of the household chores.

Middle-class women, while protected from the harsher fate of their poorer sisters, are not immune to the situation, albeit for different reasons. Yuarsi said her research found that these women "lack the skill and experience" to financially assist their families during leaner times, as "the norms in the community discourage women from this class from working outside [their home]."

Saparinah Sadli of the University of Indonesia, and chairwoman of the National Commission for Women, stressed during her keynote speech that "one of the most pervasive problems is the fact that we are basically still living in a patriarchal society, and many men and women are still gender blind." The notion of Indonesian women being subservient was effectively exploited by former president Soeharto's New Order government to restrain the citizenry.

Yanti Muchtar, coordinator of the NGO Circle of Alternative Education for Women, explained in her paper that New Order gender politics "recast the roles of Indonesian women as being limited to domestic spheres and excluded from all political activity," -- a concept mirrored in the women's organizations it set up.

The use of women's organizations as political vehicles was not exclusive to the Soeharto regime. Jan Elliot of Australia's Wollongong University points out that the Indonesian Women's Movement or Gerwani, when set up in 1954, "articulated a strong voice for the rights of women workers," and strived to be "an educational and struggle organization which was nonpolitical and for all religions and ethnic groups." In later years, however, Gerwani leaned more and more to the left, a fact deftly used by the New Order regime in the wake of the September 1965 failed coup to smear the organization and close it down permanently.

During the three decades of the New Order, state-controlled women's organizations such as Dharma Wanita and Family Welfare (PKK) flourished.

Siti Kusujiarti and Ann Tickamyer of Ohio University, who scrutinized PKK programs in two Central Javanese villages, described the organization as "the single most important institution in Indonesian rural areas for implementing state social welfare programs for women."

While defining itself as a "voluntary and democratic social organization," the researchers found PKK not only to be an "effective channel for ideological socialization," but it also provided the government "with a means for controlling or curbing women's political participation and activism." Similar to Dharma Wanita, its structure "assumed that all government functionaries were men whose wives automatically were available to serve as the chairs of the corresponding PKK organization."

How far apart the PKK and women's nongovernment organizations are was made clear by a plea made by Yessy A. Rozali. Rozali, a member of the Muara Enim PKK in South Sumatra, asked: "Instead of ignoring PKK, why not include us in the struggle to advance women's causes?" She added that the term guidance (pembinaan) in PKK has, apparently in the spirit of reformasi, been conveniently changed to "empowerment" (pemberdayaan).

The conference, Saparinah said, was the first attempt to analyze the social, political and economic impact of the recent crisis on Indonesian women. While commending the variety of research presented at the conference, Sadli pointed out that many were not done with a feminist approach, and lack in-depth analysis.

"This conference shows that there's rich data out there. The question now is: what do we do with it? It's good that studies are done about women, but they also need to work for women." She explained that on an academic level, women's studies in Indonesia had a decidedly non-feminist origin. A decade ago the State Ministry for Women's Affairs, often criticized for proliferating the idea of women's subservience, set up women's study centers in some 80 universities throughout the country, "mainly to come up with possible programs for the ministry." One participant lamented the quality of research at the study centers.

The main purpose of the event, organizer Ratna Saptari said, was to "support research on women, since in all these years Indonesian universities were not encouraged to do proper research, and a lot has been done outside the academic sphere." Ratna stressed that academics and activists were often unaware of what the other side was doing, "and it's very important to link the two together." A long time researcher and co-founder of the Jakarta-based Kalyanamitra women's organization, she pointed out the possibility of activists utilizing research results in their undertakings.

The most urgent problem which needs to be tackled, Saparinah warned, is that of violence against women, particularly in areas in regional conflict.

"This is getting worse because of the ongoing political conflict, and what's most worrisome is that the government so far has no policies to overcome this. So many women have been victims, including of state violence, and they receive no protection, and no guidance as to what to do."

[The writer is a journalist based in Leiden, The Netherlands.]

New group seeks separate Maluku republic

Chris McCall, Jakarta -- A new separatist front in Indonesia's troubled Spice Islands is demanding that Jakarta "restore" the sovereignty of the Christian-dominated south.

The recently-formed Malukus Sovereignty Front argues that Indonesia illegally annexed the islands in the early 1950s, when its forces defeated a short-lived Republic of the South Malukus. The front has carefully avoided use of the word "independence", which it says would constitute subversion, an argument Indonesian police are unlikely to accept.

Although police have dismissed the group as of minor significance, it includes senior members of the Christian community and at least one Muslim. It claims substantial support.

Police in the capital, Ambon, are today due to question two leaders of the group for the second time over a December 18 statement calling for separation from Indonesia. Chairman Alex Manuputty and secretary-general Hengky Manuhutu are to sign statements summing up earlier questioning on December 23. Dr Manuputty said he was aware of moves to have them investigated for subversion.

"The Malukus are a republic according to international law. Indonesia annexed the Malukus. We ask for an international dialogue with Indonesia," Dr Manuputty said.

In the 1950s the Maluku Islands were the site of one of Indonesia's earliest rebellions. The Republic of the South Malukus declared independence when Indonesia's founding president, Sukarno, reneged on parts of an international agreement to end the country's four-year war of independence from the Netherlands.

Instead of the federal state he had agreed to, Sukarno adopted a centralised form of government, bound to favour Indonesia's Muslim majority. The Christian-dominated Maluku rebellion quickly followed, led by local soldiers from the former Dutch colonial army. After their defeat, the rebel leaders mostly went into exile in the Netherlands, where a Maluku government-in-exile still exists.

The past two years of bloodshed in the Malukus have generated strong feelings among this exile community and angry demonstrations. Dr Manuputty said his front was separate to the Republic of the South Malukus movement, but had held informal talks with it.

Regional police chief Brigadier-General Firman Gani yesterday said other members of the Malukus Sovereignty Front might be called for questioning.

The front is claiming the Christian-dominated southern portion of the islands. It does not claim the Muslim-dominated north, which was last year split into a separate province.

Its plan would probably do little to solve the bloodshed. Some of the most endangered Christians are on the northern island of Halmahera. On the other hand, Christians have been totally driven out of the southern Banda Islands and Muslims there would be unlikely to freely join a Christian-dominated republic.

Bombing death toll rises to 17

Bandung -- Wawan Wahidin bin Engkos, whom police have described as a key witness in the wave of Christmas eve bombings, died here on Friday morning, raising the death toll in the bloody Sunday assault on nine cities to 17.

Wawan, 22, was critically injured in the blast at a building on Jl. Terusan Jakarta, which police suspect was being used to prepare the explosive devices. His body was buried not far from his house in Cikalong Selatan in Cibiru district, Bandung regency, later in the day.

"We never really knew what he was doing. In the past three years he had been working in Tasikmalaya as a poultry farmer and he came home only once every five months," Engkos, Wawan's father, told journalists.

Despite the apparent setback, authorities remained confident of resolving the case, with President Abdurrahman Wahid personally claiming that authorities would soon arrest those responsible for the bombings.

"We are sure that they [the perpetrators] can be caught soon," Abdurrahman said after Friday prayers in Ciganjur, South Jakarta. Urging the public to be patient, he added, "Even though we know who did it, we need [to gather] evidence [before we can] arrest them."

Abdurrahman maintained that the attacks were aimed at destabilizing his 14-month-old government, adding that the bombers were well-coordinated and well-funded. "These acts were politically-motivated and they had nothing to do with religion at all. Certain people have been trying to misuse the name of religion for political interests," Abdurrahman said.

No one has claimed responsibility for the bomb attacks, which took place almost simultaneously across the country. At least 118 people were injured.

Wawan was the fourth person to die in the Bandung blast. Earlier on Friday the three other victims -- Enjang Bastian Lesmana, Maman and Akim -- were buried at Sinaraga Public Cemetery. "Up until today [Friday] nobody has claimed their bodies. We have no choice but to bury them," an official at Hasan Sadikin Hospital said.

Two others who were in the building at the time of the explosion, Roni and Agus, have been declared suspects by National Police headquarters. The two will likely be charged under State Emergency Law No. 12/1951 for illegal possession and use of explosives and weaponry, carrying a possible death penalty.

A lawyer for Roni and Agus, Farhat Abbas, said on Friday that the two were recuperating at Sartika Asih Police Hospital and have revealed the mastermind behind the bombing.

"Both Roni and Agus have officially admitted to the police that the mastermind of the bombing plot in Bandung was Akim. The two said they were paid Rp 300,000 each by Akim to place bombs at [certain] targets," Farhat said. "Therefore, for the time being, I conclude that my clients were involved based on an economic motive," Farhat asserted.

Police and hospital officials where the two are being treated were hastily called to alert on Friday when a bomb threat was received by the hospital at 1.45pm. A sweep of the hospital found nothing.

In Jakarta, a senior military intelligence officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed pessimism that police would be able to resolve the bombing case. "The actors were using a cell- system so that none of the users, the makers, and the executors of the bomb attacks knew each other," the officer told The Jakarta Post on Friday.

"Even if police can arrest the two bomb-makers in Bandung, it doesn't mean they will find the links," the officer said while expressing belief that, despite being well-organized, the assailants were not Indonesian Military (TNI) personnel.

"If elements of the TNI were involved in the bombing operations, none of the targets would be missed. Besides, the attacks would cause more fatal impact," he boasted.

He further claimed that the attacks really have nothing to do with Muslim fundamentalists. "It's too easy to point to them," he said.

To support his claim that Muslim hardliners were not involved, the officer made a startling revelation by disclosing that intelligence officers had also discovered explosive devices placed at several mosques in Jakarta on Tuesday night, the eve of Idul Fitri. He refused to reveal which mosques had been targeted.

He argued that certain political groups "might be using groups of Muslim hardliners" and that they were exploiting Christmas eve "to seize power". The officer further suggested that two major cities in Central Java have been identified by intelligence officers as bases for the terrorist network.

"I'll tell you this. You go to Surakarta or Yogyakarta right now and you'll find out what is going on, and what will happen during these next three days," he said, declining to elaborate.

Separately, members of the Indonesian Forum for Peace (FID) visited some of the victims injured during the Jakarta blasts, being treated at the state Cipto Mangunkusumo (RSCM) and St. Carolus hospitals. Members of the forum, sociologist Imam B. Prasodjo, former minister of finance Mar'ie Muhammad and human rights activist Munir, said the purpose of the visit was also to collect testimonies.

They also donated Rp 2 million to each of the victims. The Forum was established shortly after the blasts to demonstrate concern over the attacks. It has also established a fact finding team.

From hospital reports it was ascertained that most casualties were suffering from wounds caused by shrapnel and burns. Munir, who is the secretary of the fact finding team, said the team had uncovered some "interesting" information.

"Just today we revealed similarities occurring prior to the blasts in several places, including Jakarta and Mojokerto, East Java: that there were intruders at churches who have more than one identity," he told journalists.

He said that the Forum and the police have set an outline to cooperate together openly, while the military chief and army chief of staff have also said they would not hamper the investigation if military elements were suspected.

Imam B. Prasodjo warned that although Idul Fitri passed peacefully, the possibility of further attacks during the New Year festive period should be investigated.

Ex-ruler's backers 'behind church attacks'

Jake Lloyd-Smith -- The Defence Minister has accused supporters of former president Suharto over the wave of church bombings that hit the country on Christmas Eve killing 16 people.

Mahfud Mahmoddin said the sponsors of the terrorist attacks were well-funded and had launched the blasts in a bid to derail the reform movement. In remarks carried in local newspapers yesterday, Mr Mahfud also said he had been detailed by President Abdurrahman Wahid to overhaul the country's security apparatus.

"Judging by the modus operandi and the well co-ordinated way the attacks were conducted, I believe that there are powerful people from the New Order behind the bombings," Mr Mahfud was quoted as saying.

Suharto's New Order government ran Indonesia for more than 30 years until he stepped down in 1998 amid a tide of protests. The bombings hit cities in Java, Sumatra, Lombok and Batam over five hours, killing 16 and injuring more than 120.

Year of violence and anarchy ahead, agency warns cabinet

Jake Lloyd-Smith, Jakarta -- Indonesia's main intelligence agency is warning that the country is set for a tumultuous year ahead with a rise in separatist pressures and civil disturbances.

The confidential paper, prepared by Bakin, the state intelligence agency, for presentation to the cabinet, says Indonesia faces "a domestic security picture for 2001 that is extremely stormy".

A summary of the 36-page document was obtained by the South China Morning Post and its contents were verified with security contacts in the Indonesian capital.

The draft was compiled before a string of bomb blasts hit churches across the country on Christmas Eve, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more.

Indonesia, home to the world's largest Muslim population, remained calm yesterday as millions of people celebrated the second day of Eid al-Fitr, the end of Islam's fasting month.

There was no visible security presence on Jakarta's streets, and no reports of further attacks on Christian targets or retaliatory strikes against Muslims.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the provocative terrorist outburst, which President Abdurrahman Wahid described as a bid to destabilise his already embattled administration. The incidents have raised suspicion that elements of the military could be behind the latest campaign.

The summary of the Bakin report said that the continued weakness of the economy, with sluggish growth, a volatile exchange rate and rising inflation, would fuel a rise in instability.

The agency also advised ministers that crime was set to worsen, and that problems associated with drug abuse would increase, possibly leading to what Bakin termed a "lost generation".

Separatist pressure and violent outbreaks across the archipelago could gain further momentum, the summary said, pinpointing Aceh, in northern Sumatra, Irian Jaya -- also known as West Papua -- in the east of the country, and the Maluku islands.

The three regions have seen serious violence over recent years, with separatist movements active in Aceh and Irian Jaya, and vicious inter-communal conflict leading to thousands of fatalities in the Malukus.

The strife in the Malukus has been linked to elements of the military bent on subverting the elected Government, perhaps backed by former dictator Suharto.

The report, entitled "The Estimated Situation Entering 2001", blames the dismal outlook on people giving vent to feelings of injustice that they suffered under Suharto's New Order administration.

"In the era of reform the people perceive a far greater degree of transparency and are making a variety of charges. This has occurred as a result of the injustice, abuses of human rights and a system of law that did not work, especially under the New Order government," the summary quoted the report as saying. It continued: "At the same time, a number of regions wish to secede from the republic, such as Aceh, Irian Jaya and Riau.

A number of disturbances have demonstrated elements of anarchy and violence. Strikes and demonstrations are continuing and there has been a change in behaviour among the people, so that it has become common to see 'street justice' meted out against perpetrators of crime."

Bakin has itself been identified as one of the state bodies that helped Suharto, now 79, maintain his grip on the country for more than 30 years until he was ousted in 1998.

The summary says that Bakin warned ministers of the "latent dangers" of pro-communist infiltrators, a common practice under the New Order regime. It adds that foreign governments and non- governmental agencies may also be active in helping to destabilise the country, pursuing clandestine, pro-communist objectives.

"There is a desire on the part of foreign interests to become involved in a number of cases such as the Malukus," it quotes the report as saying. "There are visible efforts on the part of the Western and developed nations such as the US, the European Union, Canada and Australia to put developing countries, including Indonesia, in the corner, accusing them of not valuing human rights, democracy and the environment, without any attempt to understand the political background, the cultural setting and the economic position of such countries."

To tackle the rash of problems, Bakin advises ministers to manage the promotion of regional autonomy closely, lobby for foreign investment to aid the economy, and step up law enforcement.

A bloody Christmas eve unites divided Indonesia

Andreas Harsono, Jakarta -- Hendra Putra said a final prayer at a Christmas vigil Mass on Sunday evening and offered a friend a ride home. Talking quietly, the two men headed to Putra's small Honda motorbike in a little parking area fenced with chicken wire, part of a Catholic school compound next to Jakarta's Church of St. Joseph.

In the heavily crowded compound, the second wave of churchgoers began to enter as those from an earlier Mass were leaving, their mood serene as they celebrated Christmas. The 37-year-old Putra and his friend had to walk slowly to get his bike, go out the front gate and pass beside a blue bus shelter in front of the church. It was almost 9pm.

Suddenly a bomb exploded amid some dark green bushes behind the bus stop, about 10 meters from where Putra was walking his motorbike.

He probably never knew what happened. In the bomb's fury, an old, dark-green Toyota van had its back door ripped open like a cheap plastic toy. A tree trunk was severed and blown away. The windshields of 24 cars were broken in the blast. Blood was splattered everywhere, in the parking lot, on a nearby cigarette stall. In a lightning-fast blizzard of broken glass, dozens of people were injured indiscriminately.

An old man waiting inside the bus stop was thrown several yards away, his head bleeding from deep cuts. A sound system operator sipping his evening coffee near the cigarette seller was instantly killed. Panic, panic and panic. Children and women ran for safety. People cried.

Sixty-six security officers, both private guards and policemen deployed around St. Joseph on the event of trouble, tried to call taxis for the wounded, calm down the angry and frightened crowd, and get backup. As the minutes passed, they sent more than 50 victims to two hospitals in the neighborhood.

Good Samaritans in a passing car apparently took Putra to a hospital. His forehead and right cheek were ripped open. He was bleeding and unconscious.

It is not clear what happened in the hospitals' overcrowded emergency rooms but three-and-a-half hours later, at about 12.30am on December 26, according to Lucia Devisanti, one of her brothers had found their oldest brother's dead body in the Ciptomangunkusumo hospital. Dead.

Hendra Putra, an entrepreneur who had just established an Internet cafe, died on Christmas in the biggest of the serial terror bombings that shocked Indonesia entirely. The old man who was thrown aside by the blast happened to be Putra's neighbor, Ronny Hariadi; the sound operator was Abdul Karim.

Bombs exploded on Christmas outside more than two dozen churches in Jakarta, Pekanbaru in Sumatra, Batam Island south of Singapore, Bekasi, Sukabumi and Bandung in West Java, Mojokerto in East Java and Mataram in West Nusa Tenggara. The police also found 18 bomb devices in those cities, which include Medan in northern Sumatra, but were able to prevent their lethal explosions.

Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid said on Monday that the church bombings are an attempt to destabilize his already troubled government.

"Their steps are to destabilize the government and create fear and panic," he told reporters, adding that the explosions were a blatant attack on the country's minority Christian community.

"Clearly this is an attempt to destroy Christians by using Islam," he said, adding that the blasts were an act of terrorism, designed to stir religious tensions in this world's largest Muslim country, with an estimated 90 percent of its 210 million people followers of Islam. About eight percent of Indonesians are Christians.

The close timing of the blasts, mostly between 6pm and 9pm, outside churches that were organizing Christmas masses, points to a coordinated campaign of terror, but there was no word on who was responsible and Wahid did not specifically accuse anyone.

Chief police S. Bimantoro said at least 14 people were killed in the bombings, including two police officers and one private security guard, who found a suspicious Christmas gift in a Mojokerto church and tried to dump it into a river. The bomb exploded only seconds before he would have thrown it away.

"It's impossible for people in Mojokerto to produce this sophisticated bomb," said a police officer in smalltown Mojokerto, as if trying to say that the bombs were related to the others throughout Indonesia. Only organizations with military skills, a national network and strong financial muscle are able to produce these kinds of bombs.

Witnesses and family members said Hendra Putra was seen taking his motorbike a few minutes before the explosion. But Fredrik Atara, St. Joseph' s chief security guard, said he himself had checked the dark bushes about 30 minutes prior to the explosion and found nothing suspicious there.

The bombing, however, created a feeling of solidarity among Muslims and Christians in Jakarta. Taxi drivers, radio hosts, Internet chatterers, pedestrians, street vendors, and politicians both Christian and Muslims, mostly talked about an attempt to pit Christians against Muslims in Indonesia. A group of Indonesian leading figures even set up a private committe to investigate the bombing, telling the police that it is going to back the police pressuring the powerful army whose members were allegedlly involved in previous bombing cases.

In a morgue where Putra and Hariadi's bodies were placed, many Muslim neighbors attended a Mass to honor both men, led by Jakarta's Roman Catholic Bishop Julius Darmaatmadja. Many Muslim women gave family members huge hugs and paid their last respect toward the two men.

"Although I am not of the same faith [with Putra], I deplore this bombing. This is a sadistic, inhumane, barbarian act. He is a good boy. What is his wrongdoing? Why he was targeted?" asked neighbor Yeni Safriyati who helped the Putra family organize the service.

Safriati, who wore an Islamic headscarf, said she had known Putra since he was a small boy. "We're neighbors, we live for years to respect one to each other," she sobbed. Putra is of a Catholic and Chinese-descent Indonesian family.

For many, the sympathy showered on the family demonstrated that, in this pluralistic Indonesia, bombings can't stop people from feeling a sense of common identity.

"We're friends since we were both kids. He is a kind person who never hurts others," said Wiwik Satoro. Putra's mother, Maria Sodistiawati, kept on sobbing as each friend or neighbor gave her a hug. "He's a good boy, he is a good boy," she kept crying.

Violent shadows darken democracy

Louise Williams -- Four years ago, the then Islamic leader Abdurrahman Wahid publicly begged for forgiveness on behalf of Muslim mobs who had burned every church to the ground in the east Javanese town of Situbondo. He then defiantly opened the doors of his Jakarta home to the nation's Christian leaders.

As Christians, decked out in colourful Sunday frocks and stuffy collars and ties despite the tropical heat, gathered nervously to pray in the blackened shells of Situbondo's churches, Wahid said Indonesia must not bow to the forces of Islamic extremism.

Wahid was then the leader of Indonesia's largest Islamic organisation, the 40 million-strong Nahdlatul UIama, and the one man who could defuse religious tensions. His message was simple, tolerance.

So precarious is the balance between Indonesia's majority Muslims and its religious and ethnic minorities that anything short of absolute religious tolerance could unleash a devastating wave of bloodshed.

It was Wahid who stood between those who would mobilise Indonesia's poor Muslims for their own political gain and the country's minorities the Constitution pledged to protect. He made his stand despite death threats to himself and his wife and four daughters.

Now, Wahid is Indonesia's President. On Christmas Eve at least 14 people died and more than 70 were injured in a series of church bombings across Java and Sumatra. The attacks go right to heart of all Wahid stands for, and it is reasonable to ask how much longer his "buffer" role can hold. It is also reasonable to ask how long Indonesia's fragile, young democracy can survive.

Already, his fears of four years ago are being played out. Thousands have died, hundreds of thousands have been made refugees in their own land, and thousands more have been maimed in religious riots since the burning of Situbondo's churches.

On the island of Borneo, Dayak tribes have revived "head-hunting" to kill Muslim settlers. In the Malukus, Muslim vigilante mobs have slaughtered Christians who refused to convert. On the island of Lombok, Muslim mobs have attacked churches and nightclubs, forcing the evacuation of thousands of foreign tourists. And on the streets of Jakarta, Muslim mobs have lynched Christians in full view of passing crowds.

The most recent attacks, Wahid announced on television, were intended to destabilise his Government. "They may well succeed," he conceded, grimly.

Behind the attacks lie the "dark forces" of Indonesian politics, a term widely used to refer to faceless political enemies who learned to play the black power game behind the authoritarian wall of Soeharto's rule.

Few Indonesians believe much of the violence is spontaneous. Uprisings and riots are led by politicians, or are blatantly orchestrated by them, with fleets of hired buses, lunchpacks and daily "allowances" for mobs. Grinding poverty and unemploy-ment makes recruits easy to find. As the Javanese say, the grass is dry -- so it will burn hot.

When Soeharto was forced from power amid popular demonstrations in 1998, many sections of the political elite stood to lose. Perhaps the biggest losers were the armed forces which had enjoyed a dual security and political role under Soeharto, and were permitted to use their power to operate profitable businesses. Another group of losers were the rich Soeharto cronies who ran much of the economy and built fortunes.

Wahid has pledged to rein in the armed forces, to hold soldiers and officers accountable for years of human rights abuses and to try Soeharto, his children and his associates for corruption. On all fronts, Wahid is struggling and the power of his civilian, democratic government is being called into question.

The forces are continuing to kill in the violence-wracked provinces of Irian Jaya and Aceh, Wahid's own navy failed to stop Muslim "jihad warriors" from boarding boats to the Malukus to fight Christians, no convictions have been achieved over the carnage in East Timor, and police have failed to arrest Soeharto's playboy son, Tommy, after a court sentenced him to jail.

Less moderate Islamic leaders within Wahid's own Government believe Indonesia's majority Muslims must take more prominent positions in society.

The problem for Wahid and his mantra of tolerance lies in the historical structure of Indonesian society. During Dutch colonial rule the mainly Christian ethnic Chinese community was permitted to trade and grew relatively prosperous, while the ethnic Malay Muslim majority was enslaved to the plantations, landless and poor. Fifty years of independence and internal migration has blurred the social cleavages, but in too many areas race, religions and wealth form an explosive structural fault line of power. Only 4 per cent of Indonesians are ethnic Chinese, but they control an estimated 70 per cent of business. Christians are also over-represented in the professions and government.

It is no surprise that Chinese Christians are targeted in mob violence. But in scores of towns when pent-up resentments have been vented communities find themselves without the very Christian shopkeepers, doctors, pharmacists and even loan sharks who hold the community together.

The most urgent question now is what kind of Indonesia would emerge if Wahid were to be forced out. An obvious option is a return to authoritarianism. In the meantime, the apparent strategy of burning Wahid out of the presidential palace can mean only more damage to the social fabric and fading hopes for a stable, democratic nation to Australia's north.

[Louise Williams is a former Herald correspondent in Indonesia.]

Who did it?

Derwin Pereira, Jakarta -- Senior Indonesian military officials yesterday blamed Muslim fundamentalists for the murderous wave of explosions across the archipelago on Christmas Eve.

But some officers and observers acknowledged privately that the nationwide attacks on churches could not have taken place without the backing of disgruntled army generals with personal ambition and an axe to grind against the civilian government.

A senior army intelligence officer in the Jakarta military command told The Straits Times that police had recovered documents "with a heavy Islamic content" in a workshop in Bandung, West Java.

"The documents tell us that the perpetrators wanted to create an Islamic state," he said. "They were intent on using force to achieve their objective."

He disclosed that preliminary findings suggested a radical Muslim group, which he refused to name, was likely to be working with the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM).

"Some of the explosives that we found are similar to what the rebels have been using in Aceh," he said. He said that the armed forces (TNI) were unlikely to have used TNT-based explosives, which were used predominantly by GAM. "The Indonesian army only uses modern explosives. Which professional army in the world uses TNT today?"

Some officers also referred to the possibility of communist involvement. Retired Lt-General Soeyono said that Sunday's bombings were reminiscent of the political turbulence of the 60s.

"The Indonesian communist party still has deep roots in the country," he said. "They are resorting to what they tried to do in 1965: to pit religious and ethnic groups against one another." But groups outside the military are sceptical that the still powerful TNI had nothing to do with the violence.

Mr Egi Sudjana, who heads the one-million-strong Muslim Solidarity Union, said that the Christians were "colluding" with several army officers whom he described as being linked to the former Intelligence chief Benny Murdani. "This is nothing but a plot by the Christians to make us the scapegoat. Why should we go around attacking churches? It makes little sense."

Critics of the military charge that there are strong grounds to suggest TNI's involvement in the latest round of violence to rock Indonesia. The army's fingerprints were very clear: The scale and the systematic nature of the bombings suggested only an organisation with grassroots reach and logistical capability could have carried it out.

A three-star general conceded that TNI elements could be behind the attack. He said: "The military as an institution will never sanction what took place on Sunday. This is the work of maybe some generals working together with other groups which share similar interests."

These groups include former President Suharto's family and the elite of the New Order regime. The Muslim fundamentalists were used as proxies.

Another senior officer told The Straits Times that the Christmas Eve violence was no different from other incidents that had taken place over the last year.

"It's always easy to find a bogeyman in Indonesia," said the one-star army general. "They can be the Islamic right or communists. But the core of today's problems in Indonesia is due very much to factionalism and rivalry in the armed forces. Some generals are willing to sponsor violence to move up the ranks."

Patience, piety exercised by Christians in the minority

Vaudine England -- Christians in Jakarta have come to know December as a time when their faith, commitment and tolerance will be tested.

Christmas this year came at the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, when predominantly Muslim Indonesia changes its business and social hours to cater to religion. It can be a trying time for those not of the Islamic faith.

One Christian professional woman, who chose not to give her name, said: "Last week I was thrown out of my health club ... they told me I could not swim there because I am a woman and this is fasting month and women are not supposed to swim while fasting. Men can swim, but women can't."

She decided to swim anyway, and was asked by the club to take a month's leave. She refused and demanded her membership fees back. She said club officials were aware of her Christian religion.

She lives in an area dotted with mosques that blare out sermons daily during Ramadan. But she remains stubbornly committed to celebrating what's left of Christmas in a multi-faith way. Her Christmas tree carries Islamic symbols and her dinner guests included Muslims and Christians.

"I have to start religious tolerance at home, and it's a long road ahead," she said. "It's very strange being Christian nowadays and it's very sad. It shouldn't be like this, lots of people here are not like this. I had hoped that this year, with Christmas and Eid al-Fitr [the end of the Ramadan fasting month] so close together, that maybe there could be peace. But that hope has gone astray."

Another Christian woman, Ratnawati, said that Christians were more afraid these days and more aware of their minority status. "I am proud to be a Christian. We know that we live in plurality here, and we are a minority," she said. "But I live together happily with my Muslim neighbours. I have so many friends who are Muslims and we all have no problem with this. To us, as friends, what is more important is the condition of our country, the need for political change.

"The danger is that because of these events, people easily become sensitive to religious difference -- and that makes it easier to provoke trouble, for us to be burned by issues which divide us. Why does it have to happen again and again?"

Church leaders also worry about the impact the bombs will have on already fractured communities further afield. "The people I am most worried about are the Christians in the outer islands, such as in the Maluku, Manado [North Sulawesi] and Irian Jaya," said church leader in Jakarta Frans Tumiwa. All of us in Jakarta are sending messages to them now, not to be provoked into any retaliation. It is so important that we do not fight back."

Army knew about church attacks

Vaudine England -- The bombing of more than a dozen Christian churches across Indonesia on Christmas Eve was known about in advance by military intelligence, but politics precluded any prevention.

Police, human rights activists and President Abdurrahman Wahid believe the campaign was organised, well-funded and timed to inflict maximum terror.

At previous times of political turmoil, the victims have been ethnic Chinese, as during the fall of former president Suharto in 1997 and 1998, or members of ethnic groups across the country in incidents which break out often. But this time Christians were the target.

Discussion on which groups are to blame focuses on the shadowy group of rogue military officers, paid or provoked Muslim gangs and the wealthy followers of Suharto.

Their goal is presumed to be the creation of fear and chaos to reduce public enthusiasm for a democratic society and heighten support for a return to military-run law and order.

The bombs went off within two hours of each other and were placed in vehicles, suggesting the backing of wealthy patrons. The technique and material was similar to previous terror attacks which remain unresolved.

These attacks include the September bombing that killed a dozen people at Jakarta's Stock Exchange and explosions at embassies.

National Police Chief General Suryo Bimantoro said the bombs were laid by professionals. "These indications show that the bombers are very organised, possibly by the same group," he said.

The bombs shattered the image of tolerance in the largely Muslim country with a history of religious pluralism. They also have political ramifications.

Mr Wahid said they were an attack on his Government and on him directly. As a famously tolerant Muslim priest and leader of inter-faith dialogue, he has sought to dampen Indonesia's potential for violence and appeal for a broad civic commitment. His failure to stop the killings, which have now reached the political heartland of Java, highlights once again his inability to rule effectively in the face of entrenched old-guard resistance to his Government.

The deeply divided parliament reconvenes in the new year to consider charges against Mr Wahid based on investigations of two financial scandals. If the atmosphere of insecurity is further stoked, his ability to fend off impeachment moves will be weakened once again.

If he wants to keep his job, Mr Wahid may have to compromise even more to achieve some form of co-operation with the security forces.

Sources confirm that the bombs were known about in advance by military intelligence. But demilitarisation policies separate the police from the military, much to the military's chagrin. The army, hoping to encourage support for an increased military role in Indonesia, is happy to let police try to cope with situations few institutions could handle.

"They knew about it," said one source, referring to military intelligence. "But because of the rivalry between them and the police, they let it go."

Asmara Nababan, secretary general of the National Commission on Human Rights, said: "What I am very worried about is that this is only the beginning. Explosions would make it very difficult to control conditions."

Sunday Bloody Sunday

Jakarta -- At least 15 people were killed and dozens others injured when bombs exploded almost simultaneously in or outside churches in various towns on Sunday night, as Indonesia's minority Christian community was preparing to celebrate Christmas.

The casualties include:

• Two churchgoers and a cigarette seller in Jakarta
• In Sukabumi (West Java), a woman, a 10-year old boy and a two- month old baby were killed when a bomb exploded in their car after they attended a Christmas service at a church;
• In Pekanbaru (Riau), three church officers were killed as were two police officers who were called in to guard the church;
• In Mojokerto (East Java), a member of the Banser Islamic group was killed when he tried to take away a parcel containing a bomb away from a church.
• In Bandung (West Java), two workers of a welding shop were killed when a bomb exploded in their workshop. A third man, whose identity was not known, died in a hospital later on.

There were three separate bomb blasts in the industrial island of Batam, south of Singapore. There were no fatalities, but as many as 22 people were injured. Thirteen of whom had to be hospitalized. Sunday's death toll would have been far higher had the police not intercepted parcels containing explosives which had been sent to churches in Medan, North Sumatra.

Church officials in Medan appeared to be far more alert than their counterparts elsewhere in the country, having had their shares of unexplained bombs in the past few months.

They quickly alerted the police upon receipt or sighting of suspiciously looking parcels. Police came and successfully tamed the explosives.

In the West Nusa Tenggara capital of Mataram bombs also exploded at the GPPS Bethlehem church and Emmanuel Protestant church. No fatalities were reported.

Religious leaders and officials met soon after the blast, and agreed that the explosions had nothing to do with interreligion conflicts. Governor Harun Al Rasyid said that the bombings were politically motivated. No one has so far claimed responsibility for what appeared to be a concerted attack against Christians on Sunday as they celebrated Christmas.

The Ahlus Sunnah wal Jamaah communication forum, the organization which sent the Lasykar Jihad (the Muslim Warrior Force) to fight Christians in Maluku, quickly distanced itself from the Christmas Eve bombings. "The Jihad Warrior strongly condemns the bombings," the group said in a statement. The bombings were obviously backgrounded by political nuance. Lasykar Jihad in this regard has no involvement in national political maneuvers," it said.

Muslims and Christian leaders have condemned the bombing as an act to set them against each other as have happened in Maluku in the last two years. Indonesia's Muslim majority will be celebrating Idul Fitri, the end of the Ramadhan fasting month, on Wednesday.

In Jakarta, bombs exploded outside the Katedral and Canisius church, both in Central Jakarta, and Santo Yosef church in Jatinegara district in East Jakarta. They all occurred within the space of one hour on Sunday night just as the churches were holding Christmas services. Police later managed to defuse another bomb found outside the Anglican church near the Canisius church.

Services had to be canceled as police combed the area. But in the Katedral, Christmas services resumed after the blast and after the police gave the clearance.

Two victims were identified as 50-year old Roni Hariadi and 27- year old Hendra Putra, both Jakarta residents who were in the Santo Yosef church when the bomb, believed to have been placed inside a van parked near a bus shelter outside the church, exploded. The third victim was Abdul Karim, no known age, a resident of Bekasi who was running a cigarette kiosk near the bus shelter.

Dozens others, churchgoers as well as passers-by, were being treated at the Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital and the private St. Carolus hospital. Some were later discharged but 22 remained for further treatment on Sunday night.

One of the injured was pop singer Melky Goeslaw, who was being treated at the Mitra Abadi hospital for burn on his hand, face and leg, according to Antara. Melky was driving past the Canisius church with his wife Linda on his way to a different church when he was caught by an explosion.

His daughter, Melly Goeslaw, who has taken up after her father in singing her way to popularity, was waiting at the hospital. In the West Java town of Sukabumi, the three victims were identified as Banjar Nahor (30 years), Aprianto (10 years) and Bella (two months), according to Antara.

They were all inside a car when a parcel, which Aprianto had found near their car after a service at Gereja Sidang Kristus church and which he had placed it in the dashboard, exploded. Three other passengers in the car were injured.

Shortly after, another bomb exploded in the Gereja Sidang Kristus church on Jl. Alun-Alun Utara. The blast also injured six people in the vicinity.

In Pekanbaru, two police officers were killed in a bomb blast that occurred at the HKBP church. The four were killed when they were inspecting a parcel found inside the church building after the congregation had left, Antara reported.

The victims were identified as First Sgt. Rudi Saragih, Second Pvt. Panangian, Second Pvt. Jabaruddin and Kamaludin, also Second Private. Eight other people, including church officials, were injured.

Pekanbaru City Police chief Sr. Insp. Armawan S. said that the four were killed after a "package" they were examining exploded. The package was left in the church as the service was over.

Another explosion also took place in Sidomulyo, where teenagers were gathering celebrating Christmas. One was killed in the blast and five others were injured. The deceased was identified as Simanungkalit, Antara reported.

In Mojokerto, the death man was identified as Riyanto, a member of the local Banser, a youth wing of the Nahdlatul Ulama organization, who was among Banser volunteers to guard the Santo Yosef church on Jl. Pemuda. He was seriously injured when a bomb exploded near the church Sunday night. He was rushed to the hospital but died a few hours later. His death was confirmed by East Java Police Chief Insp. Gen. Sutanto.

Members of Banser and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) Task Force voluntarily guarded all churches in Mojokerto during the Christmas Eve.

The explosion in Bandung could provide a clue about the organization and the motive, something that had baffled the police. The welder shop was believed to have been used to store and assemble bombs. Police also said they found leaflets about the terror campaign.

Two other workers of the shop who were injured in the blast could give the police the lead they needed to solve the mystery. The owner of the shop, Aceng Suhari, was still at large.

Unfortunately for the police, some of the ammunitions exploded while some officers were going inspecting the site. Two officers -- First Sgt. Zainuddin and Second Pvt. Yoyong -- were injured.

Two of six civilians injured in the blast, Agus (22) and Roni (20), who are now treated at the Sartika Asih Police Hospital on Jl. Martadinata, are named suspects for the bombings. Police said they believed the two "knew much" about the bloody blasts.
 

Economy & investment

Indonesia's human development index declines further

Bandar Lampung -- Indonesia's human development index has continued to decline over the past two years to reach 109 out of 180 countries.

Speaking on the occasion of Id Fitri prayers here on Wednesday, administrative coordinator of the Health Ministry office in Lampung Drs Zamaksari Shahli MKM said that in 1998, Indonesia still ranked 105th on the human development index.

But its rank had decreased to 109th of around 180 countries in the world. "Indonesia lags behind other Asian countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan as well as Brunei Darussalam," he said.

According to him, the decline in rank must be studied and taken as a precious lession by all Indonesians.

Indonesian economy is not all it seems

Tim Dodd, Jakarta -- It would seem that Indonesia 's economy is now far from the intensive-care ward where it spent the whole of 1998 on economic life support.

The latest figures look moderately healthy. Indonesia enjoyed annual GDP growth in the year to the September quarter of 5.1 per cent. And its trade figures have been buoyed by booming oil prices (Indonesia is a major exporter) and a moderate recovery in small-scale manufacturing exports. In October alone its trade surplus was nearly $4 billion.

Even the Government's precarious financial situation, stretched to breaking point by the $160 billion bailout of the country's collapsed banks, is being made far easier by the prevailing high oil prices. Each $US1 increase in the price of oil adds over $US100 million ($180 million) to the Government's revenue take each year. The days of 1998, when GDP collapsed by nearly 14 per cent in one year, seem a long while ago.

The only obvious flies in the ointment would appear to be rising inflation -- at 9.1 per cent in the year to November -- and rising interest rates. The central bank's benchmark rate is now at nearly 14.5 per cent.

But is the Indonesian economy all that it seems? The judgement of the markets, based on the value of the country's currency, is very negative. The rupiah is trading at 9,200 to the US dollar, a level it has only plumbed at crisis points over the past two years. The problems are both economic and political.

On the economic side the banking system is still a thorn in the flesh. After collapsing in the crisis it is, even now, hardly active in lending into the real economy. Investment is being supported by retained earnings and capital stored away in the good times, and it is flagging badly.

In the first six months of 2000 Indonesia approved only $4.2 billion of foreign investment, and much of that might never eventuate anyway. By way of comparison, in 1999 about $19 billion was invested in Indonesia by foreign sources. Domestic investment is also collapsing, down 47 per cent in the first six months of the year.

Another looming problem, stemming from the banking system failure, is the difficulty in maintaining this year's high consumption levels, which have been a significant contributor to GDP growth. It appears that consumption has been driven by depletion of capital which is not being replaced.

Other ominous signs include the possibility of a downturn in the US second only to Japan as a destination for Indonesia 's non-oil exports and the possibility of falling oil prices.

These purely economic risks are real enough, but the political risks to Indonesia 's economy in the coming year are more alarming. The IMF last week postponed the dispersal of a $720 million loan to Indonesia because of its concern about the slow pace of economic reform. The IMF is particularly irked by the situation at the central bank, where President Abdurrahman Wahid and the parliament are at loggerheads over who will control it.

The bank's governor spent six months under arrest this year on charges stemming from last year's Bank Bali scandal. President Wahid wants to sack him but cannot unless the parliament agrees, so the bank is effectively leaderless.

And the unpredictability of the President is also a major cause of economic uncertainty. For example, he lashed out last month at Singapore, a major source of foreign investment, and suggested that Malaysia and Indonesia should cut off the island State's water supply.

Another big problem for foreign investors is Indonesia 's regional autonomy laws, due to be put into effect next week, which have removed all certainty for mining investors. As a result, no new foreign money is flowing into the Indonesian mining sector, and until the political factors improve, the economy will be performing well under its potential.