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ASIET NetNews Number 39 - October 12-18, 1998
East TimorStudents demand a fair assembly
Political/economic crisisBelo calls for military cuts Police presence reinforced in Timor Thousands protest for second day 16 flee prison during protests Tension rises over 'military offensive'
Labour issuesRupiah's strength sparks guarded interest Underground market in commodities thrives
Human rights/lawWorkers set up new labor group
News & issuesAbduction probe powerless: Kontras Mysterious killings strike fear in East Java Murders may be organized: Kontras Calls for protection of rape investigators Activists doubt police version of murder
Arms/armed forcesPKB distances itself from Megawati Suharto used decrees to enrich family, friends Habibie issues anti-discrimination ruling Megawati: popularity, but without punch? Campaign against corruption 'half-hearted' Moves underway to seize Suharto land Legislators support new political laws Opposition to Habibie from Golkar ranks Megawati pledges an `open market'
Military told to stay distant from parties Dwifungsi in trouble
| Democratic struggle |
Jakarta -- Hundreds of university students protested at the Indonesian national parliament here on Tuesday demanding a fair first general assembly since the fall of ex-president Suharto in May, a reporter said.
Around 1,500 students from several Jakarta universities demonstrated to demand that the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) takes its role seriously when it holds a special convention planned for next month by the government of President B.J. Habibie. "MPR, do not turn the special session into a political theatre," read one of the posters carried by the protestors.
The protestors could not enter parliament's grounds and spilled onto the streets which had been blocked off to traffic by security about one kilometer from the entrance to the parliament compound.
Twenty student representatives were allowed to enter, past two thick layers of barbed wire and under the watchful glare of about 250 armed police and military personnel, to meet with the House Speaker Harmoko. "MPs realize that times have changed and it is no longer the time for corrupt practices, and no longer the time to steal people's money but it is time to defend people's right," a student standing at the lobby of the parliament building shouted over a loud speaker.
Harmoko however, did not immediately meet with the student representatives, who later threatened to stay overnight until they were allowed to meet him.
More student protestors were seen arriving outside the parliament with some holding banners criticizing Suharto's hand-picked successor Habibie as another corrupt leader. "What is needed is a new president, free from corrupt practices, people's representatives and not brown nosers" a red banner written in white ink read. "We have been lied to and fooled for the past 32 years, we don't need any more of those," read another poster.
| East Timor |
Tommy Ardiansyah, Dili -- East Timor spiritual leader Bishop Carlos Belo on Thursday urged an end to Indonesian military activity in the troubled territory amid reports of fresh armed clashes with rebels.
"If we want to have dialogue and a peaceful solution, then the number of troops should be reduced in order to give room for people to move," he told Reuters. "It is not good to talk about reform and dialogue when there is (military) action," he told Reuters.
The former Portuguese colony of 800,000 people has been hit by fresh rumours of increasing Indonesian military presence and clashes between troops and the Fretilin guerrilla movement, whose number is estimated at little more than 200.
When asked about the clashes, Belo said: "There have been ...in the eastern part." He gave no further details.
Indonesia invaded East Timor in 1975 and annexed it the following year, a move never recognised by the United Nations. Human rights groups have accused Indonesian troops of persistent rights abuses there.
Belo said he welcomed Tuesday's statement by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who called for a cessation of all military activity in East Timor and a substantial reduction of the Indonesian military presence there.
A statement issued through a UN spokesman said Annan was disturbed by rising tension in East Timor, particularly reports of armed clashes and remarks attributed to local officials that apparently provoked large-scale protests in recent days.
Fresh anti-Indonesia protests broke out in Dili this week, sparked by comments from Jakarta-appointed governor Abilio Soares that civil servants risked being fired if they opposed Indonesia's proposals on granting autonomy but not independence to the territory. However, in the past two days, Dili has been quiet and military officials and police insisted that East Timor was safe.
Belo said he had heard reports by residents of increasing military presence in the territory. "There has been new activity, especially in the evening. It does not matter whether the troops are coming with health missions... People just do not want to see them any more."
By August, Indonesia had pulled out what it said were the last of its combat troops from East Timor. But the withdrawal was widely seen as little more than a token gesture, with some 5,000 troops remaining.
Meanwhile in the island resort of Bali, about 50 East Timorese leaders, both against and for a referenum, started a two-day meeting with Foreign Minister Ali Alatas on Thursday to discuss the territory's future, government officials said. "The meeting aims at giving a clearer picture of what Indonesia means by the wide-ranging autonomy," one said. The official declined comment on Annan's remarks.
In Jakarta, about 24 East Timorese youths staged a protest in front of the UN office demanding a referendum. Dozens of police watched the protest but there were no reports of violence.
Portugal and Indonesia held three days of talks at the United Nations last week but came to no agreement on Indonesia's proposals for granting wide-ranging autonomy to East Timor as a final settlement of the dispute over the territory. The two sides were due to meet again in November.
On October 6, Alatas said the government would not allow a referendum on independence for East Timor. He said Indonesia's proposal of granting wider autonomy for East Timor was the best hope for resolving the dispute over the territory.
Sydney -- The Indonesian authorities announced on Monday the detachment of four mobile police brigades (BRIMOV) in the occupied territory of East Timor, according to Indonesia's national news agency, Antara.
According to a news dispatch received in Sydney on Monday, the four police brigades will remain in East Timor for at least one year. The police commander of Bali, Major Y. Suyatmo, was quoted as saying by Antara that the four brigades had reached East Timor by sea.
Estanislau da Siva, a member of the central committee of FRETILIN, told LUSA in Sydney on Monday the detachment was meant "intimidate" the population of East Timor and the Timorese resistance movement. The brigades reportedly arrived in East Timor over the weekend.
Dili -- About 15,000 East Timorese staged a second consecutive day of protest today and demanded the provincial governor quit over a threat to fire government employees who support an independence referendum for the troubled territory.
The protesters arrived in hundreds of cars and motorcycles from several regencies in the morning and joined others already in the East Timor capital, Dili. Waving banners and chanting pro- independence slogans, the protesters marched down several streets. Stores, offices and schools were closed.
Hundreds of riot police blocked the crowd from entering the compound of the governor's office. There were no reports of violence or arrests.
The protesters were angered by a recent statement by Governor Jose Abilio Osorio Soares that civil servants in the province must support a proposal by the Indonesian government to grant autonomy, not independence, to the former Portuguese colony. Soares also threatened to fire government employees who back calls by separatists for a referendum on independence.
"We will keep on protesting until the government responds to our demands," said Leandro Isaac, a protest organizer. He also threatened to hold similar protest for the release of jailed East Timorese rebel leader Xanana Gusmao, who is now serving a 30-year prison sentence in Indonesia's capital, Jakarta. On the first day of protest yesterday, police blocked a long convoy of motorcycles and cars.
ETISC adds:
[The Timorese started gathering in Korem, at the centre of Dil, around nine this morning. By 9:50 am, close to 15,000 had assembled in the area. There were about 1,000 vehicles there with 40 trucks and cars from Liquicia district, 30 from Ermera region, 15 from Aileu and 20 from Manatuto.
The procession then moved from Korem through Dili, passing through Becora, Tailessi, Matadouro, the cathedral at Vila Verde, Comoro and Governor Abilio Soares' residence near the beach. The demonstration ended at Lapangan Pramuka opposite the former Chinese school. The East Timorese were carrying banners and shouting "Autonomy No! Referendum Yes!" - East Timor International Support Centre.]
Jakarta -- Sixteen inmates escaped from an Indonesian prison in the troubled territory of East Timor today as the population of the main city of Dili launched a "silent protest" against the Jakarta-appointed governor.
The inmates fled through the front gate as visitors were leaving the Becora state prison, the state-run Antara news agency and a prison official said by telephone from Dili. "The inmates ran through the main gate along with people who were leaving when visiting hours ended," AG Mayun Mataram, prison ward at Becora prison in Dili,said.
Mataram said all 203 East Timorese held in Becora stormed the main gate, causing panic among the guards, who called for troops from the police mobile brigade (Brimob). "In panic, the guards soon asked for help from Brimob, but by the time the troops came, 16 inmates had managed to escape by jumping across the fences," Mataram told Antara.
Many of the guards were today absent amid rumours there would be a big demonstration to demand that East Timor Governor Abilio Jose Osorio Soares step down, he said. Only four of the usual 12 guards were on duty today, he said. After the incident, the 187 inmates left in Becora were prohibited from wandering around the prison complex.
Meanwhile, hundreds of East Timorese civil servants launched a "silent protest" against a threat by the governor to fire them if they did not endorse Indonesia's proposal of autonomy for the former Portuguese colony.
The National Council of Timorese Resistance (CNRT) said in a separate communique received here that all inhabitants had been asked to stay home today, and the strike would be followed by mass street rallies tomorrow and on Monday.
Andrew Perrin, Dili -- Tension was rising last night following accusations of a major military offensive against Timorese resistance forces in the past two weeks.
A well-placed source said that separate attacks on the guerilla forces occurred on September 28 near the town of Los Palos, in the east, and on October 5 in the mountains around Cai Rui, 20km southwest of Baucau. It is believed 19 Indonesian and five Fretilin soldiers were killed. The bodies of the Indonesian soldiers reportedly were buried in a closed ceremony at a military cemetery in Dili yesterday.
The vice-commander of the Fretilin resistance forces, Taur Matan Ruak, narrowly escaped the second attack, as did Fretilin's Los Palos region commander, Lere Klere Maek. But it was claimed yesterday that three battalions in East Timor's central region had surrounded the guerilla camp. Throughout yesterday, heavily armed troops departed from Dili for the territory's central region.
In an interview with The Australian newspaper last week, the military commander of the Indonesian armed forces in East Timor, Colonel Tono Suratman, denied the presence of combat battalions and rejected the suggestion military offensives were taking place.
Claims of the military offensive brought a stinging rebuke from jailed leader of the Council of National Timorese Resistance, Xanana Gusmao. In a letter sent to Indonesia's Secretary-General last week, an angry Gusmao appealed to the Government to "behave like adults at this moment of reformation, by avoiding being heroes of the crimes of the New Order of the corrupt murderer [former president] Suharto". Further on in the letter, he says his "patience [with the Indonesians] is at breaking point".
Meetings between all pro-independence groups were held in Dili this week to discuss a response to the alleged offensive. On Tuesday, East Timor's provincial governor, Abilio Soares, called for the resignation of all civil servants who supported a referendum for self-determination. There are 30,000 civil servants in East Timor, 75 per cent of whom who are of East Timorese origin.
In a statement issued yesterday by the council's national political committee in Dili, members voted in favour of a general strike to take place today in Dili and for mass demonstrations to be held tomorrow and on Monday to protest against "the violation of East Timorese civil and human rights". All pro-independence groups have supported the action.
Council leaders accused the Indonesian Government of breaking all of its recent statements regarding East Timor, including the withdrawal of troops, an end to military offensives and, in the spirit of reforms promoted by new Indonesian President Bacharuddin Habibie, a desire to encourage an open and peaceful society after 23 years of conflict in which an estimated 250,000 have died.
Today's strike is expected to bring Dili to a standstill, with thousands of civil servants, students and other workers walking off the job. A peaceful demonstration, with an estimated crowd of 8,000, is planned for tomorrow.
| Political/economic crisis |
Douglas Appell -- The rupiah's collapse from late last year accelerated the economic and political turmoil that knocked Indonesia off the map of global stock investors. Is the currency's recent rebound bringing it back?
It is helping. After plunging from 2,450 rupiah to the dollar in mid-1997 to between 12,000 rupiah and 17,000 rupiah for much of this year, the Indonesian currency strengthened this week to roughly 8,650 rupiah to the dollar. "If the rupiah continues to hold these levels, it will do a lot for confidence," says Pek Swan Teo Layanto, the president director of PT Schroder Investment Management Indonesia.
Investors who have kept Indonesia at arm's length this year say they have begun dipping a toe or two into Jakarta's still- turbulent waters.
The Indonesian market "is coming back on to radar screens," says Gary Greenberg, who runs Van Eck Global Asset Management's emerging-markets funds out of New York. Another fund manager, who in the last two weeks has made her first foray into Jakarta this year by parking 2% of her portfolio there, says, "People have to put money in the region and they don't have that many choices."
Economic concerns remain
But for now a few toes are more than enough exposure for most investors. "We actually bought a little bit" in Indonesia recently, says Matt Linsey, an Asian specialist with Baring Asset Management in London. The country has some decent-size, focused companies that "you can explain what they do in less than a minute," unlike the octopus-like conglomerates found so often in Asia, he says. Unfortunately, Indonesia's macroeconomic situation remains horrific, he says.
With the economy contracting at a 17% clip in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier, and a political situation that may remain in flux until a general election set for May, uncertainty will keep most investors at bay, analysts predict.
Moreover, some pessimists note that the rupiah's surge partly reflected fears that Indonesia could follow Malaysia in imposing capital controls preventing foreign investors from taking their money out of the country. Indonesian officials have denied such controls are looming. One Hong Kong-based investor says his investment house is using the rupiah's rise as a window of opportunity to cash in its Indonesian holdings and get out at a relatively good exchange rate.
Compelling valuations
Those capital-control fears helped spark an across-the-board sell-off by foreign holders of Indonesian blue-chip stocks in September that knocked down their prices to tempting levels. "Indonesia got on to our radar screens last month because the valuations were becoming compelling," says Christopher Lively, a Boston-based portfolio manager of the Pioneer Indo-Asia Fund, which picked up some "small positions in selected stocks."
Similar sentiments helped the key Jakarta stock-market index surge 18% over the past week and a half. But even recent buyers are under no illusions about the country's outlook. "I would caution against excess euphoria," Pioneer's Mr. Lively says, "because the recent rally was based in part on a stronger yen" which could easily weaken again. "The downside risks outweigh the upside potential" for now, he says.
"It's impossible to get enthusiastic," agrees Van Eck's Mr. Greenberg. It's simply a matter of Indonesian stocks being so beaten down that "a small position in a few good companies might make sense," he says.
Talk of intervention?
Whether or not Jakarta's market can move beyond being a token presence in regional portfolios will be affected by the rupiah's ability to hold its ground. Talk that the government has been intervening in the thinly traded currency market to keep the rupiah strengthening to the 8,000 level has left many analysts expecting the currency to weaken again. The rupiah's surge in the last two weeks has been beyond expectations and is hard to justify in terms of economic fundamentals, says one senior analyst who predicts the dollar will recover to fetch 10,000 rupiah by the end of the year. Another analyst says the dollar could end the year as high as 12,000 rupiah.
The poor response to this week's issue of short-term paper by Indonesia's central bank, which attracted just over half of the total funds it had hoped to raise despite offering almost 60% annualized returns, suggests that many foreign investors also believe the rupiah is poised to weaken again, observers say.
But some analysts believe the rupiah will be able to maintain its recent gains. As long as the dollar doesn't jump back to 140 yen or more from Thursday's level of about 118 yen, the inflow of money from official lenders such as the International Monetary Fund should continue to support the rupiah, says Andrew Dermot Fung, regional treasury economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. It is possible that the rupiah could stand at 8,000 to the dollar or stronger by year-end, he says.
Bill Belshere, the head of fixed-income research with Merrill Lynch in Singapore, agrees. With Indonesia running a strong trade surplus and receiving inflows from multilateral lenders as well as a little foreign direct investment, there is "a very good chance" that the rupiah could stabilize in the 8,000 to 9,000 range, he predicts.
Return of business
If the rupiah can hold between 8,000 and 10,000, it will help pave the way for business activity to resume in Indonesia, says Schroder's Ms. Teo Leyanto. More companies that investors had pegged at liquidation value could then be valued as going concerns, she says.
Merrill Lynch's research chief in Jakarta, Alex Wreksoremboko, says he remains fairly cautious, recommending only a few select exporters such as fisheries company Daya Guna, paper company Indah Kiat or plantation concern Astra Agro Lestari. Most blue- chip stocks will begin to look expensive if they rise more than 10% or so from current levels, he says.
Ms. Teo Leyanto says several leading exporters and blue-chip stocks still look attractive now. And if a stronger rupiah does get Indonesia's financial blood flowing again, some domestic consumption-related stocks may become interesting again, she says.
Jose Manuel Tesoro, Manado -- Manajil "Roger" D. Salahuddin thinks of himself as a small-timer. He has been bringing cheap goods from Indonesia to the southern Philippines for just over five months. The amount of dollars he spends for his purchases often hovers in the high three figures, at most a thousand. He does not fly to Manado from Mindanao's main city of Davao. What he saves by taking the crowded, hot, day- and-a-half boat trip from his home in General Santos city to the capital of Indonesia's prosperous province of North Sulawesi goes toward padding his admittedly meager profit. "We earn any way we can," he says. His room at the Celebes Hotel in the shabby port district is still empty. But at some point during his stay (he averages about a week), it will fill up with sacks of the clothes, shoes, sandals and sheets Indonesia's steep devaluation have made far cheaper in Manado than in Manila.
Many Indonesians consider Salahuddin and other Filipino traders, called viajeros, a threat to Indonesia's economic security. For a while, police monitored the often-dim, dormitory-like hotels they frequented. Authorities threatened to raid their rooms or the nearby buildings that, though built on Indonesian soil, bore signs reading "bodega," meaning "warehouse" in Filipino. Newspapers accused the viajeros of hiding rice, flour, sugar, cooking oil, kerosene - which Indonesians consider sembako, part of the nine basic goods mostly subsidized by the government - in the sacks and packages they would ship through Indonesia's slippery sea border with the Philippines. The North Sulawesi chamber of commerce formed a fact-finding team, which reported that up to 10,000 tons of rice had been siphoned away to the Philippines in August through the province's main port of Bitung. On Aug. 17, police arrested and questioned four Filipinos who had bought rice, corn and beans from local merchants.
North Sulawesi has a buoyant economy, based largely on lucrative agricultural commodities such as copra, cloves and nutmeg. At Manado's dark and sprawling Bersehati market, one rice trader says her customers can still afford to be picky with what they eat. They choose tastier grains from Vietnam instead of the cheapest rice provided by the regional arm of the government's food distribution agency, which goes by the acronym Bulog and held a monopoly during the Suharto era. The situation in North Sulawesi is not as bad as in Java, where even Bulog rice is priced beyond the reach of many consumers, who are forced to go without food or resort to stealing it. But its relative prosperity does not mean the province is unworried about what has become a national hot-button issue - rising prices and apparent shortages of basic goods and foodstuffs. In fact, it has even more cause to be concerned. Here, smugglers, along with hoarders and corrupt officials, are the main villains in the food crisis. North Sulawesi, along with West Kalimantan bordering Malaysia's Sarawak state, have been labeled the main exit points for rice and other subsidized essential commodities.
"Trade is desired," says Suhendro Boroma, an editor at the Manado Post. "But as long as Indonesia is in the midst of an economic crisis, the export of basic goods is not permitted." Doing so, he says, is equal to committing "economic crime." The day after Independence Day on Aug. 17, his paper printed a "Sumpah Sembako." This "Sembako Pledge" began: "We Indonesians, native and of foreign descent, pledge not to sell sembako to the neighboring country." For weeks, Manado fell into a flurry of sniffing out smugglers and their local conspirators. Bitung's port administrator threatened to revoke the licenses of ships heading to General Santos or Davao if they were caught carrying sembako. The provincial governor met with the Philippine consul- general in Manado to discuss stanching the flow of subsidized goods out of the country.
The export of basic goods across the Celebes Sea is a classic border issue: something that seems criminal on one side of the imaginary line seems innocent on the other. Though the Trade and Industry Ministry in Jakarta had already issued a list of goods banned for export on July 27, the list was not yet publicized in Mindanao, or well-known even in North Sulawesi itself. In mid- August, the chamber of commerce chief, Bungky Frederick, was still demanding the government issue a list of banned goods. "Our brothers are innocent," says trader Salahuddin. "They did not know [sembako trade] was forbidden."
Foreigners are not solely responsible for the leakage of rice. Indonesia's own Bulog officials are implicated. In Jakarta, Bulog said it was flooding the market in August with rice stocks up to twice the capital's regular consumption. But prices kept rising. "If the amount is doubled, that means there should be no difficulty in rice. However, the rice kept disappearing." So says city councilor Djafar Badjeber, who blew the whistle on local Bulog officials diverting stocks to illegal distributors or out of the country. He says that the city police investigated 152 registered rice distributors, who had the right to buy rice at a cheap price from the Jakarta branch of Bulog, and discovered that only 10 met the proper legal conditions. On Sept. 4, Jakarta police caught nine people planning to send 1,900 tons of rice to Kuching in Sarawak. They said they had bought the rice from the Jakarta Bulog branch for 1,800 rupiah a kilo. In Kuching, the rice would fetch 7,000 rupiah a kilo. The case brought down the Jakarta Bulog branch chief, as a similar case in Central Java took down Bulog officials there.
If anything or anyone was ultimately behind the export of goods out of Indonesia, it was market forces. In the case of North Sulawesi, the Philippine peso had devalued half as much against the dollar as the Indonesian rupiah, making goods irresistibly attractive, and subsidized foodstuffs even more so. Between January and August this year, the volume of goods manufactured elsewhere in Indonesia that were shipped out through North Sulawesi's Bitung port jumped by more than 26 times compared with the same period last year. (The flood of toiletries northward led Unilever Philippines to complain to Unilever Indonesia that Unilever goods were competing against themselves in the southern Philippines.)
The smuggling was one of many reasons why, from late July to the end of the August, rice prices rose from being about half of the cost of imported rice to something close to parity. According to Steven Tabor, a US economist advising the government on food issues, another reason was that rice traders were building up stocks in the villages, partly out of a fear there would not be enough rice, partly out of a commercial expectation that prices would rise strongly. Meanwhile, urban traders held very little stock in the cities, fearing confiscation by authorities out to nab "hoarders," or damage by civil disturbances. All these factors, including low rice stocks in May, contributed to the shortages and the subsequent rise in prices. Indonesia, says Tabor, just "could not hold prices that low for that long."
Yet the higher prices have narrowed the differential between rice sold in Indonesia and that sold abroad, drastically reducing the profits possible from rice smuggling. Higher prices have also given farmers an incentive to produce food, holding out the hope that supplies will increase in the future, along with farmers' income. On the urging of the government, fallow land all across the country, including plots in the middle of town and city blocks, is being planted with food crops. In Manado, tall stands of corn shadow parts of main thoroughfares. A harvest in late August has helped bring down rice prices by about 5%. But there are still some 17 million families in the country with incomes too small to feed themselves properly. Jakarta has put together a program to distribute 10 kilos of rice a month to the neediest families, to supplement food they can obtain from relatives or neighbors.
The Philippine consulate in Manado says that the export of foodstuffs has leveled off, except the trade in corn, which is not banned and which is booming. In the long run, the invasion of viajeros in search of cheap food and goods may improve trade between Indonesia and the Philippines. For example, Filipino traders have discovered how much cheaper ginger is in Indonesia, and now bring kilos over, sometimes all the way from Surabaya in Java. Such is the Crisis, pushing neighbors together as much as it pulls them apart.
| Labour issues |
Jakarta -- Employees of 100 companies operating in Jakarta and its surrounding areas established on Sunday a new union called Serikat Buruh Jabotabek (Greater Jakarta Labor Organization) in a bid to improve their bargaining position. The new organization was announced at the end of a two-day congress attended by about 200 employees of the 100 companies.
Rahman, the congress' organizing committee chairman, said Sunday that the meeting elected Sutiyono, a worker from Tangerang, to chair the new organization, which is intended to help defend workers' economic and political interests against both the government and employers.
"We will focus on the improvement of the workers' bargaining position," Rahman said, claiming that the new organization could include about 10,000 people. He said the members could be either workers and former workers, who were involved in a series of activities and demonstrations critical of the government.
They were mostly those who used to be supervised by non- governmental organizations specializing on labor issues, such as the Akatiga foundation, the Daya Darma Institute and the Bakti Pertiwi foundation, he said. "We have set up a new workers organization because thus far we have not been included in the existing formal organizations," Rahman, a former textile company worker, said.
He said the new organization's members were affiliated to neither the Indonesian Prosperous Labor Union (SBSI) led by Muchtar Pakpahan nor the government-backed All-Indonesia Workers Union (SPSI). He said the organization's membership was based on the location of their respective companies, not the type of jobs nor the firms products, as was the case in other worker unions.
Most of the congress participants were workers' leaders. Sinto, a worker from cable producer PT Sucaco in Tangerang, said that he and his friends were still discussing with their company the provision of severance payments. He said his company planned to dismiss about 400 workers out of its 1,200 work force because of the economic crisis. The dismissed workers staged a demonstration last month to reject the severance payment offered by the company because it was too low, he said.
Another employee, Rina, from plastic producer PT Alform in Tangerang also led her colleagues in a demonstration last month. "But the company only fulfilled some of our demands, including an increase in welfare allowances," she said.
A worker at Nike shoe producer PT NASA in Pasar Kemis, Tangerang, said his company was planning to dismiss 700 out of its 10,000 workers. "We are still discussing the severance payment as well," he said.
The participants were entertained on Saturday by singer Leo Kristi, who sang the Hands of Sun, Labor Song, which was written specially by poet Afrizal Malna. Afrizal also attended the congress at the Wisma Samadhi guest house in East Jakarta on Saturday.
| Human rights/law |
Jakarta -- Human rights activists say National Military Police investigating the abduction of political activists were "powerless" and that the 11 members of the Army's Special Force (Kopassus) suspected of the crime were still on the loose.
The independent Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras) said on Friday it had "strong indications the 11 Kopassus member (involved in the abductions) were not being detained (by the National Military Police)." Kontras' coordinator Munir explained the group's opinion after attending a closed meeting with members of the National Commission on Human Rights.
National Military Police Chief Maj. Gen. Syamsu Djalal has repeatedly said the 11 Kopassus members were being held at National Military Police headquarters in Central Jakarta. Rights commission deputy chairman Marzuki Darusman, however, told The Jakarta Post on Friday it was "possible" the Kopassus personnel were not detained by the Military Police. "A military source told me they could stay 'outside' as long as there is a guarantee that the suspects will not flee (abroad) and destroy the evidence," Marzuki said, adding the court-martial of the 11 Kopassus members will begin on Nov. 3.
Munir said on Wednesday that five of the nine activists who resurfaced after being abducted had seen a number of their abductors on the streets recently. BBC radio reported on Thursday that Syamsu had dismissed the allegation, saying it was "nonsense".
The Military Police has so far rejected appeals from human rights groups demanding access to the unnamed 11 Kopassus members saying they could only meet the suspects at the court-martial.
Separately, Antara reported on Friday that Kopassus chief Maj. Gen. Syahrir M.S. called on the media to ask Syamsu himself whether it was true the 11 Kopassus members were not in the Military Police's custody. Syahrir, however, asserted that the 11 Kopassus members have been handed over to the Military Police and were now in their custody.
Munir reiterated his protest against the Military's plan to submit the dossiers of the 11 Kopassus members to the court- martial next Wednesday since it has yet to locate 14 other activists still missing.
Munir said it was likely they would be prosecuted only for their involvement in the abductions of the nine activists who have resurfaced. "It is also likely they will not be charged with torture since the Military Police has never carried out medical examination on the nine activists who have returned," Munir said, adding that marks from physical torture are still found on the activists' bodies. Munir has argued that no military tribunal should be held until all of the missing activists reappear because it would not be legally feasible to bring the officers to another trial for the same case should evidence be found later on. Kontras estimates that at least 24 activists went missing beginning in April last year. One was found dead last May. The nine who resurfaced related harrowing tales of physical and mental torture.
The Armed Forces announced the alleged involvement of Kopassus members in the abductions of political activists in July.
Jay Solomon, Banyuwangi -- Dariah didn't see who attacked her as she returned home last Sunday evening from the village mosque, nor does she know why her black-hooded assailants targeted her.
What the middle-aged woman feels certain of, though, is that if her neighbors hadn't chased off the men who were stabbing her neck and arm, she would have become a victim of an ominous series of killings sweeping through the poor villages of east Java. Now Mrs. Dariah, her deep, ruby-colored gashes untreated, lives in fear that the attackers will return.
Across this rice-farming region, only a 30-minute ferry ride from the swank tourist island of Bali, there is widespread terror. Bands of hooded men wielding swords and knives have killed or wounded hundreds of people in recent weeks. The reason for the killings is unclear, though it appears in part to be a brutal settling of scores by people whose lives have been upended and whose ability to feed themselves has been jeopardized by the economic and political chaos that has swept Indonesia this year.
Echoes of the past
The bloodletting, which even the authorities are struggling to understand, is one symptom of the breakdown in law and order in Indonesia since demonstrations and riots precipitated the resignation of longtime President Suharto in May. It is also frighteningly reminiscent of the massacre of as many as half a million Indonesians in the chaotic months surrounding the 1966 resignation of Indonesia's founding president, Sukarno.
Many of the hundreds estimated to have been killed in recent weeks have been members of Indonesia's largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama. The group's leaders say they suspect a political drive to split the group and its political party ahead of next year's general elections.
But others here offer different explanations. Villagers say the victims have been people who are tukang santet -- practitioners of black magic. The country's Armed Forces Commander, Gen. Wiranto, has says a resurgent Indonesian Communist Party, or PKI, is behind the murders. Local commanders in east Java blame vigilantism.
"There's no clear law on this sort of" retribution against people accused of black magic, says Banyuwangi police commander, Col. Budi Utomo. He says that when arrests have been made, truckloads of villagers have protested at police headquarters because "many support the killings" themselves.
As the authorities dither, the killings are spreading. They started in Banyuwangi and have spread to the neighboring districts of Jember, Pasuruan, Situbondo, and the island of Madura. Local media have even reported deaths in central and western Java in recent days. "How is it that there are all of these killings and no police?" asks Abdul Nasir, the vice secretary of Nahdlatul Ulama in Banyuwangi. "We have to make sure it stops."
'Ninja' killers
Villagers in these parts call the killers "ninjas," whose faces can't be seen and, like Mrs. Dariah's attackers, wear black. The lack of police presence in many villages has spurred people to set up their own security apparatus. Armed to the teeth with makeshift weapons -- jagged-cut bamboo spears, rusty knives -- virtually every man in a village here watches guard. "This time," says S. Haryono, a leader in Mrs. Dariah's village, "we're prepared for them."
The trouble may be distinguishing "them" from "us," for some villagers have blood on their own hands. Residents in Mrs. Dariah's village openly admit that just weeks before she was assaulted, a local mob attacked and killed a man named Roeslan, who was accused of being a tukang santet. Their proof? Village inhabitants said they suffered "bloated" bladders, after Mr. Roeslan had been accused of making sexual advances toward another villager's daughter.
In broad daylight, roughly 100 of the village's inhabitants attacked Mr. Roeslan as he walked home, stabbing him with scythes and bamboo poles, Mr. Haryono recalls. Who exactly were the murderers? People here simply say "the village." But Mr. Haryono himself makes no effort to conceal his presence at the killing and only laughs when asked why he failed to stop it. In an apparent effort to justify the murder, he guides a visitor to Mr. Roeslan's home, showing that his family remains in the village and that "there are no hard feelings."
In a neighboring village, the story is almost the same: two suspected tukang santet were killed late last month. One man was dragged to his death by motorcycles, while a mob attacked a 45- year-old man named Salam. The motive again stemmed from loose charges that the men were inflicting stomach ailments on the population. And as with Mr. Roeslan's death, these villagers have no sense of criminal wrongdoing.
Called from her hut to meet a reporter, Mr. Salam's widow, 35- year-old Usna, says she isn't interested in pressing charges. "Life is getting back to normal," she says. "I just want to let it be." More Chaos Is Feared
While the violence has nowhere near the intensity of the massacres in the 1960s, the danger that it could escalate is on many minds. "The atmosphere is the same. Everyone is now playing the game: If you don't like someone, you go after them," says Hermawan Sulistyo of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences.
The potential for greater mayhem clearly wasn't lost on Banyuwangi administrators when they met Tuesday to discuss what to do about the violence. The district's legislators harangued police commander Utomo for failing to bring the violence to an end. Col. Utomo responded that the violence was calming and that more "repressive" security measures would be taken.
The sense that darker forces were manipulating events, however, was also on the agenda. Some people believe the armed forces may have been involved. Police officials concede that some security personnel have been detained as part of a sweep; but military leaders deny that the military itself is instigating the violence. Col. Utomo stresses that the violence is being spurred, not by outside agitators, but by "old social beliefs that are not easy to undo."
Until these issues are cleared up, however, Banyuwangi will continue to live in fear. On a recent afternoon, the Islamic teacher Haji Ali Sudardji -- an active member of Nahdlatul Ulama -- sits in his small house worrying that the assailants will return. A week earlier, three black-clad men appeared at his school, carrying knives, and demanded that his students hand him over. They didn't, but he fears the men will return. "If they come, they come. There's not much I can do," he says. "But at least I can confront them."
Jakarta -- Rights activists have said that the grisly murder spree that took place in East Java over the past two months has now claimed 157 victims and appears to have been perpetrated by an organized force.
Munir from the independent Commission-for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence (Kontras) told a media conference that at least 157 people have been killed in the attacks in the East Java regencies of Banyuwangi, Jember, Pasuruan, Situbondo, Lumajang and Madura.
At least 110 have been murdered in Banyuwangi alone, Munir said. "(The victims were) not only those accused of practicing black magic, but also Moslem preachers and public figures," Munir said. He told The Jakarta Post that more than half of the victims were Moslem preachers.
National Police Spokesman Brig. Gen. Ibgar Sianipar, however, told a media conference on Friday that only one Moslem preacher was among the 95 deaths so far recorded by police. "Investigations have shown that there were patterns to the slaughter ...either through planned operations or spontaneous acts," Munir said, adding that local people in the region had for years nursed a simmering hatred of those whom they suspected of dabbling in black magic.
Munir noted that the murder spree had intensified since the Banyuwangi administration, under the pretext of providing protection, issued a letter on Sept. 18 instructing village chiefs in the area to establish a list of the alleged practitioners of black magic.
The National Police said on Thursday that 337 people were on the list of people accused of practicing witchcraft. Munir said that copies of the list were circulated among the public and alleged that this information had provoked residents into launching further attacks.
"The list (of those alleged to practice black magic) was not held under any security and that was questionable," Munir said. He said a number of people named on the list were subsequently attacked by mysterious club and knife-wielding killers wearing ninja-like black clothing and masks. "The killings have been taking place at night," he said, adding that in some cases the attacks were preceded by power cuts.
Munir said the killers had been seen driving vehicles bearing license plates from other regions and appear to have been well trained because they have been able to "paralyze" their victims and locals who were trying to prevent the killings. "They even have complete maps of the area so they know how to escape if they are chased by local residents, " Munir added. He claimed that none of the ninja-like killers had been arrested by the police.
As of Friday, Togar said that 92 people had been arrested for their alleged involvement in the killings. He said 21 had been formally charged and a further 71 people were still being questioned. He also admitted that the killings had spread to Jember, Probolinggo, Lumajang and Bondowoso. He acknowledged that killings had also taken place in Madura, but believed they could not be connected with those in Banyuwangi and its surrounding areas.
In Banyuwangi on Friday, Dori, 42, was found dead in his house in Kembiritan village. He allegedly committed suicide. Neighbors said that prior to his death he had been worried that he could be the next victim of the attacks.
Minister of Defense and Security/Armed Forces (ABRI) Commander Gen. Wiranto said on Thursday that a team from ABRI's headquarters had been dispatched to Banyuwangi to investigate the killings. He told reporters after meeting President B.J. Habibie that the team was expected to identify whether the killings were purely criminal in nature or were politically motivated.
Wiranto admitted the attacks that originally targeted people accused of dabbling in witchcraft and then spread to Islamic preachers, started in June but recently increased in frequency. "It seems that the attacks are not only limited to the alleged practitioners of black magic, but have been targeting other people who are apparently not (shamans)," Wiranto said.
On Thursday, Togar Sianipar confirmed the alleged involvement of four members of the Armed Forces in the killings.
Jakarta -- An international rights group Monday called for better protection for a group probing the rapes of ethnic-Chinese in Indonesia following the murder of a teenage volunteer from the team. New York-based Human Rights Watch also called for a full investigation into the murder here Friday of 17-year-old Marthadinarta, known as Ita, a member of the Volunteers for Humanity.
Jakarta police said Sunday a young man who lived in the neighbourhood had confessed to the murder, saying that the victim had caught him while he was robbing her house. But Rights Watch said in a statement received here that the murder had "raised concerns among Indonesian human rights groups that it represents an escalation of a campaign to terrorize those investigating the case."
Rights Watch Asia director Sidney Jones said in the statement that the three most visible members of the Volunteers for Humanity, Father Sandyawan, Karlina Leksono and Ita Fathia Nadia had been "threatened repeatedly since the issue of the rapes first arose."
"Now there is a murder of a person closely linked to their work. At the very least the Indonesian government has an obligation to conduct fully transparent investigations," Jones said. She added that the investigation should be extended to cover not only the murder, but the intimination that has continued for the past three months, and called on government officials to stop commenting on the rapes until October 23.
That is the date set for a joint government-NGO fact finding team entrusted by the government in August to look into the May violence to make their findings public.
The Rights Watch statement said the forms of intimidation used against the Volunteers had included obscene telephone calls and threats against their children. The statement concluded that there appeared to be "many contradictory reports" about Ita's murder," including whether she too was raped before the killing, and called for a "full and impartial investigation, with the results reported back to the Indonesian public."
Jakarta -- Indonesian police said Sunday they had arrested a common thief for the brutal murder here of a young woman activist who counselled girls raped during savage May riots here.
But shocked religious and rights leaders deplored her killing, cast doubts on the police version and voiced alarm that the government and the military, who have tried to deny the rapes, could be involved in silencing witnesses.
The body of Marthadinata, a 17-year-old high school senior known to fellow human rights activists as Ita, was found by her father in a second-floor room of her modest Jakarta home Friday night. Her neck had been slashed and there were stab wounds to her stomach, chest and right arm. The Saturday evening Suara Pembaruan newspaper and independent sources said the autopsy report showed signs of sodomy.
Jakarta police chief Major General Noegroho Jayusman said the 22-year-old suspect was arrested with fake jewelry and blood- stained clothes belonging to the victim, and that the motive had been simply robbery. The announcement of the arrest was met here with general incredulity, as Lieutenant Colonel Imam Haryatna, head of the central Jakarta police precinct had said Saturday nothing was missing from the house, and robbery had been ruled out as a motive.
Rights activists said Ita and her mother had been scheduled to travel to the US this week to testify before a human rights group on the rapes, mainly of ethnic Chinese women, during the May riots. They said they saw the murder as a grim warning to silence all those working with the ethnic-Chinese victims of the rapes -- which top government and military officials, including President B.J. Habibie and armed forces chief General Wiranto, say may never have happened, as they have found no evidence.
Prominent human rights lawyer Albert Hasibuan told AFP Sunday he too was convinced that the murder was linked to Ita's activities with rape victims and said the Independent National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas Ham) would carry out its own investigation.
When asked who he thought the murder might have been carried out by, Hasibuan suggested "parties" who in the past had expressed doubts over or denied that the rapes in mid-May. He cited as examples of people casting doubt on the rapes as "the government and other parties."
"There will be a further investigation from Komnas Ham," he said. On Sunday, Ita's body was cremated in a brief ceremony at which her parents and elder sister shed tears but refused comment on the police claim.
"This is a terrible blow for us. In a way the murderer intended to send us a message that they could really kill," Karlina Leksono of the Volunteers for Humanity, which the slain girl worked for, told AFP Saturday. "It was only on Tuesday that we held a press conference about how humanitarian workers (working with rape victims) have recently been terrorized," Leksono added.
Nugroho said Sunday the arrested suspect was an "unemployed man (who) had planned the robbery long beforehand," and added he had confessed to throwing the girl's room key into a gutter after the murder. He also said a syringe was found under Ita's bed, indicating she was a drug addict.
Ita worked for the Volunteers for Humanity, one of the first groups to disclose the May rapes. They said some 168 women and girls were either gang-raped or sexually assaulted.
They also said 20 of the rape victims, women or young girls, died from their wounds, were murdered by their attackers or committed suicide. Survivors, some of whom had fled the country, were too afraid to testify, the rights groups said. On Sunday, leading Indonesian Moslem figure Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, denounced the murder as "inhumane and unforgivable."
"This is a cruel act that cannot be forgiven," Gus Dur, head of the Moslem Nadhlatul Ulama (NU) group, said in a speech to about 3,000 loyalists here. "The Indonesian nation is heading towards destruction with all the rapes and the killing of a child," he said.
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Jakarta -- The People's Awakening Party (PKB) has asserted that it does not support Megawati Soekarnoputri and will pick its own candidate in next year's presidential election.
The party -- whose establishment in July was facilitated by Abdurrahman Wahid, the chairman of Indonesia's largest Moslem organization Nahdlatul Ulama and a close ally of Megawati -- also said it was confident that it would win the general election.
Party chairman Matori Abdul Djalil acknowledged the growing opinion that his party would form an alliance with Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) after the general elections in May. He also said some people believed the PKB would support Megawati's bid for the presidency.
"I want to state here that the PKB will name its own presidential candidate in due course," Matori said at a gathering with journalists at the luxury Kartika Chandra hotel here on Friday. He declined to mention any names.
He recalled how a person would be considered a hero if he dared to nominate himself for the presidency during the rule of former president Soeharto. "Now, someone who nominated himself for the presidency would be considered arrogant," he said, adding that the right time to announce a presidential candidate would be after a party was sure it had won in the election. "Wouldn't you be embarrassed if you named a candidate only to find out that you have not done well in the election," he said.
Three people have so far emerged as strong candidates for the next presidency. They are Megawati from the PDI, Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and State Minister of Food and Horticulture A.M. Saefuddin, who is also an executive of the United Development Party (PPP).
An American expert on Indonesia, R. William Liddle from Ohio State University, has predicted that the PKB will finish among the top five political parties in next May's election. Liddle, speaking in August, said the other four would be the PDI under Megawati, the Crescent Star Party (PBB), Golkar and PAN. Matori said on Friday that his party had "looked to the regions" to see if it could really meet Liddle's prediction. "Apparently, we reckon we could win," he added. Also on Friday, Matori and PKB executives Isa Muchsin and K. Usman said the general election should be held on schedule at all cost.
Matori said the PKB had noted statements made by a number of governors and regents to the effect that people may not be ready for an election next year given the depressed state of the economy. "Those (are) signs (that they) want to preserve the status quo," he said. He said President B.J. Habibie's government was purely transitional in nature and must pave the way for a general election as soon as possible. Matori said his party believed that the People's Consultative Assembly should convene to set up a new government as soon as the election is over and the votes have been counted.
The current agenda sets the election for May and the MPR assembly for late December. The new' government is expected to be formed in January 2000. "Why such long a time? What if the government party does not win in the election?... Won't it just add to the uncertainty?" Matori said.
On Friday, PKB also announced that it would gather its chapters and branches from around the nation at the Senayan indoor sports stadium on Oct. 18. NU chairman Abdurrahman is expected to deliver a "brief political message", Matori said.
Jakarta -- A private Indonesian group fighting against corruption has singled out 79 decrees issued by then-President Suharto over the past five years as flawed, reports said Saturday
"The flaws were in legality, content or their impact on society. These decrees have become a tool to legitimize the abuse of power," said deputy chairman of the Indonesian Society For Transparency, Kusnadi Harjasumantri. Kusnadi, quoted by the state Antara news agency, said the 79 decrees were among 528 issued by Suharto between 1993 and May 21 this year, when he resigned under public pressure.
He said some awarded large projects like toll roads, oil refineries, property developments and a coastal reclamation project for Jakarta to Suharto's relatives or close associates. Other decrees ordered the use of forestry funds to help a pulp and paper company owned by a close Suharto associate or concerned the national car program, providing tax exemptions to a company controlled by one of Suharto's sons.
Kusnadi criticised a lack of transparency in the preparation of the flawed decrees, a lack of regulations governing their content and ineffective control by supervisory institutions. He said his group would press the government to review and revoke the offending decrees. It would also try to make parliament more effective.
Kusnadi said his group's findings would be passed on to government ministries, the attorney general's office, the Supreme Court and the police.
The Indonesian Society for Transparency, headed by former finance minister Mar'ie Muhammad, includes many prominent public figures, former officials, economists, lawyers and human rights activists. Pressure has been mounting to end the corruption, collusion and nepotism that marked Suharto's 32 years in power.
Jakarta -- Indonesian President B.J. Habibie has issued a ruling ordering officials and government institutions to avoid discriminating between Indonesians based on their origins, a report said here Thursday.
The Jakarta Post daily said Habibie had issued a presidential instruction on September 16 that required officials to dispense with the use of the discriminatory terms "indigenous" and "non- indigenous."
The move was "to give equal treatment and services to all Indonesian citizens ...and to remove any discrimination in any form, nature or level, for all Indonesian citizens, be it based on tribal, religious, racial affiliations or origins," the document was cited as saying. In his instruction, the president also said he had decided to review any laws or government regulations deemed unfair in business and service sectors, education, health, job opportunity and salary or income for workers.
Calls for the scrapping of regulations discriminating against minorities, including ethnic-Chinese, have been mounting following violent riots here and in several other cities earlier this year which mostly targetted properties and members of the ethnic-Chinese community.
Although numbering about six million of Indonesia's 202 million people, the ethnic Chinese community dominates the country's economy and is believed to hold a vast part of the country's assets.
Critics have cited as discriminatory policies, the provision of special signs on identification papers marking those of ethnic Chinese origin as well as regulations which closed off positions in the government and the military to ethnic Chinese.
Experts were also quoted by the Jakarta Post as citing several other regulations including one banning the public use of Chinese characters and publications, restricting Chinese religions, beliefs and traditions as some of the discriminatory regulations still in force. They also cited regulations on arrangements for Chinese temples and an obligation for ethnic Chinese to take Indonesian-styled names.
Sander Thoenes, Sanur -- She has proved she can paint a town red, but can Megawati Sukarnoputri run the world's fourth-largest nation?
Scarlet flags and banners are reminders of the Indonesian Democratic Party congress held last weekend by Mrs. Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's first president and the leading candidate for presidential elections next year. Wearing the color of nationalism, more than 100,000 supporters roamed the streets shouting "I love Mega," "Mega for president," and "Mega, Queen of Justice," a reference to a Javanese messiah expected to rescue her people one day.
The nicknames illustrate Megawati's huge popularity among Indonesians, who revere her as a champion of the underclass but most of all as her father's daughter. She is one of a host of women in Asia who have taken on the charisma of late fathers and husbands and risen in politics.
But Megawati has yet to prove she can do much more than that. Asked to name anything in her platform that could distinguish her party from 80-odd others that have registered to date, Megawati looks puzzled. Like most parties, hers calls for free elections, freedom of expression, an open market, and more money for education.
"The PDI [Indonesian Democratic Party] is an open party, we accept anyone who wants to become a member," she says. "We don't ask where they are from, what their religion is." Pressed for specifics, she looks up for help from any assistant, but they are still having breakfast in an adjoining room.
"Intellectually, she is sort of Reaganesque," says one diplomat in Jakarta. "She has some principles that lead her way, and she sticks to them stubbornly. What she needs, like Reagan had, is a good team."
Megawati evades most questions, much in the way she ran the party congress. The members never got to vote on the party program and happily gave her the authority to appoint the party's executive board. "Ibu [mother] Mega knows best," delegates said. The congress reminded some of the lack of democracy under President Suharto and Megawati's father, Mr. Sukarno, who turned Parliament into a rubber stamp and introduced "Guided Democracy" in 1957.
Megawati insists her congress was democratic. "Before, they just engineered the participants, just picked them," she explains. Mr. Suharto founded the PDI in 1973 by forcing five parties to merge and deciding its leader. Party members rebelled in 1993 and picked Megawati. "This is the first time the participants are picked by the grass roots, in meeting after meeting," she adds. "If everybody then says yes, yes, yes, it is also democracy. We don't engineer it."
Although Sukarno's combination of nationalism and communism brought war and ruin to Indonesia in 1965, Megawati insists he did not make a single mistake. Many Indonesians revere Megawati's father as much as she does. But many intellectuals say he was not unlike his successor, Suharto, who is now widely denounced. "Her father was an authoritarian," says Ahmad Syafiil Maarif, a Muslim from a rival party. "Megawati does not have any clear ideas about politics. She has never become herself."
Megawati has revealed one character trait that should give skeptics hope. She managed to keep her party united throughout the congress without making compromises that would scare away supporters. She re-appointed the board and added a few, rather than dismiss people who represented powerful factions. And she ignored lobbying by friends of her husband, a controversial figure in the party.
"It's hard to think of a candidate other than Megawati who would have the potential to unify the country," one Western diplomat says. "She has no real enemies. She can ask the people to sacrifice and be patient. Without her, this place would be in trouble."
Jakarta -- The government's move to probe into high level corruption cases in the country is a half-hearted effort merely to refine its image, an American expert on Indonesia's political economy said here Monday.
Jefirey A. Winters, an associate professor at the Northwestern University in Chicago, Illinois, expressed his skepticism over the political will of the government to investigate corruptions involving the high-ups. "I see all this as cosmetics," he told reporters after a discussion on corruption.
"This government is an extension of the New Order regime, clearly they must try to convince people that they aren't part of the old crowds, " he said, citing the 32-year regime of Soeharto, who resigned from the presidency in May. Winters said sincere investigation into the corruption allegations might backfire on many of the incumbent government officials because they had also abused their powers to gain wealth in the past.
He cited the recent government's move led by Attorney General Andi Muhammad Ghalib and the Coordinating Minister for Development Supervision Hartarto Sastrosoenarto to probe into Soeharto's wealth as inconclusive.
He said the authorities lacked the political will to continue their inquiry not because they feared the former president but because many senior officials could be dragged down by the investigation's result. "If there's a momentum, it will snowball on them. They are all going to get hit," he said.
In June last year, Winters disclosed that a third of the World Bank's loans to Indonesia had been siphoned off by the bureaucrats in the country. The allegation was immediately denied by the bank's officials then. However, the World Bank finally admitted a few weeks ago that some of its loan funds had leaked and disappeared into the pokets of officials. The confirmation was made after the Asian Wall Street Journal published in August the World Bank's internal memorandum on the incidence of graft in Indonesia.
At the discussion here on Monday, Winters criticized some of the incumbent ministers who had prospered while they were in office during the Soeharto era but who are now standing out as corruption fighters. These included the Coordinating Minister for Economy, Finance and Industry Ginandjar Kartasasmita, who recently initiated the establishment of a fact-finding team to investigate the World Bank's funds that had allegedly been siphoned off, he said.
Ginandjar, Winters said, had a dubious past to be a promoter of an anti- corruption movement because he was currently under allegations of collusion with mining company, PT Freeport Indonesia copper mining company in Irian Jaya, during his tenure as the mines and energy minister in the late 1980s.
Until he resolves this issue and comes out clean, "it's not proper for him to be the pioneer of anti corruption", he said. "How can we trust those who have been doing the crime. It's like appointing the head of the Gambino crime family in the US to eliminate mafia," he said.
Winters said the World Bank largely contributed to the loss funds in Indonesia and in other developing countries. They had turned a blind eye towards irregular uses of their funds by their sovereign clients, he said. "The relationships between the Bank and its government clients have always been very cosy and secretive," he said.
The World Bank has claimed to bear no responsible over the use of the funds, although its Articles of Agreement stated that the bank must ensure that its funds be used properly by the sovereign clients for the intended projects, he said. Winter asserted that the World Bank should, therefore share the responsibility over the lost funds.
[On October 14 Associated Press reported that the government said it might order the arrest of Whinters for making allegations. Justice Minister Muladi said foreigners who insult a Cabinet minister could be arrested under Indonesian law - James Balowski.]
Jakarta -- Indonesia's ministry of lands has initiated moves to seize lands owned by fallen president Suharto and his family that were obtained illegally or harmed community interests, the state Antara news agency said Wednesday.
Antara quoted Land Affairs Minister Hasan Basri Durin as saying the heads of all regional land affairs agencies nationwide had been asked to make an inventory of Suharto family holdings, and that 10 had already complied. "Even if they had land ownership certificates, if the papers prove illegal, they can be annulled," said Durin, who is also the chairman of the National Land Agency.
He added that the inventory was being carried out in coordination with the attorney general's office. "Up to now 10 regional offices have filed their reports and we have submitted the data to the attorney general's team," which is probing the alleged fortune accumulated by Suharto during his 32 years in power.
News of the inventory came amid reports of new clashes between police loyal to the Suharto family and hundreds of small farmers who have taken over a cattle ranch belonging to Suharto and used it for growing bananas and root vegetables. The Indonesian Observer said farmers were beaten with rifle butts and batons, and seven students who had been supporting the farmers were arrested Tuesday.
Durin said the sprawling ranch, the Tri-S Tapos, in the hills overlooking Jakarta, was one of the examples of land ownings that hurt the community, and said the title of the ranch was in the process of being annulled.
It also came as Justice Minister Muladi was quoted by the Observer as saying he felt that Attorney General Andi Ghalib was proceding "too slowy" with the official probe into Suharto's alleged wealth. "You must provoke the attorney general to launch a quicker investigation," Muladi was quoted as telling reporters on the sidelines of a parliamentary hearing.
He also said he himself had been urging Ghalib to step up the pace of the probe, ordered by the government of Suharto's successor B.J. Habibie in June, a month after Suharto stepped down under mounting public pressure.
The Observer commented however that it was afraid that despite Durin's moves, the fact that he was cooperating with Ghalib's office had raised "fear" that the Suharto family would not have "to give up anything, as the probe team is considered rather weak."
Little is known about the extent of the Suharto family's land holdings inside Indonesia, although properties outside the country are better known. Indonesian dissident George Aditjondro last month identified five houses worth up to two million pounds owned by three of Suharto's six children and one half-brother in London, five houses in the United States, several in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands and a sprawling ranch in New Zealand owned by Suharto's youngest son.
Amy Chew, Jakarta -- Indonesian legislators have unanimously backed sweeping political reforms proposed by President B.J. Habibie to make the nation more democratic, officials said on Wednesday.
Draft laws on political parties and elections are at the heart of the reforms pledged by Habibie, who took power when former President Suharto stepped down in May amid mass protests, crippling economic crisis and deadly riots.
"Everyone supports the basic idea of the draft laws. No objections have been raised, only questions," Ryaas Rasyid, head of the law drafting team, told Reuters after a parliament hearing on the laws. "I am optimistic the laws can be passed by the end of this year," he said.
A draft law on general elections proposes a combination of a district system, under which the electorate would vote directly for representatives, as well as proportional representation. Another draft law on political parties would pave the way for the recognition of more than 80 political parties which have mushroomed following Suharto's ouster.
Under Suharto, the government only recognised three political parties -- the ruling Golkar party, the Moslem oriented United Development party (PPP) and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).
A draft law on the composition of parliament proposes reducing the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) to 700 people from the current 1,000 and increasing the number of elected members in it. The number of elected parliamentarians in the assembly, the country's top legislative body, will be increased to 550 from 500. Of the remaining 150, 55 will be appointed military officers and 95 will be selected by other parliamentarians.
Under Suharto's regime, 425 members of the assembly were elected, 75 military officers were named by him and another 500 were appointed by presidential decree.
Ryaas and his colleagues had earlier warned legislators not to delay the passage of the laws as this could cause more unrest in the crisis-racked country. Students have stepped up their protests in recent weeks demanding that anti-reform and corrupt legislators be removed from parliament as they would not reflect the aspiration of the people.
Ryaas said parliament members did not want to be held responsible by the people for delaying general elections by holding up the passage of the laws. "The legislators are all working very hard because they know the consequences of delaying general elections," he said, adding that his team was now working on replying to all questions raised by October 21.
Golkar party member Moeljono urged parliament members to work together to complete work on the laws within the given timeframe. Indonesia is aiming to hold parliamentary elections on May 26 after the draft laws are adopted and will convene a special session of the MPR in December 1999 to elect a president and vice president.
Jakarta -- A recent statement by a close presidential advisor that President B.J. Habibie's strongest opposition in a presidential election bid would come from within Golkar's own ranks has triggered speculation from political observers.
"Habibie's main competitor for president (for the next term) is not Megawati Soekarnoputri, but from within Golkar itself," Dewi Fortuna Anwar was quoted by Panji Masyarakat as saying in a seminar organized by the prestigious National Resilience Institute (Lemhannas) early this month.
Observers have since trained their focus on Golkar's soft-spoken chairman Akbar Tandjung, who is also minister/state secretary. Akbar has been active in Golkar since former president Soeharto came to power in 1967. The party that garners the most votes in the upcoming general election in May theoretically will have a great opportunity to lead the country or at least to play a key role in the next government.
A reliable source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Habibie's camp had become more aware of Akbar's political power. "Unlike Pak Harto, Pak Habibie does not have a direct line of command with Golkar's leadership," the official said on Saturday.
Habibie has always given vague answers when asked whether he would seek to run in the presidential election in December next year. The official said it was natural for Habibie's camp to prepare for the election.
The names of officials regarded as Habibie's inner circle now include Minister of Cooperatives Adi Sasono, secretary of development operations Lt. Gen. (ret) Sintong Panjaitan and his close confidants Jimly Ashshiddique and Ahmad Watik Pratiknya.
For decades Soeharto acted as the chief of Golkar's board of patrons and was able to fully control the dominant political grouping through a veto power over all its affairs. In its extraordinary congress in July, Golkar abolished the board of patrons. Habibie, who was then the board's coordinator, endorsed Akbar in his race to defeat Gen. (ret) Edi Sudradjat, a Soeharto favorite, for Golkar's chairmanship.
Akbar is known as a savvy politician who has rarely burned his bridges with other major political figures. "Akbar can play at least the role of kingmaker because Golkar will likely garner a sufficient number votes in the next election," an official said.
It means even if a coalition government has to be formed, Akbar's position would be stronger than Habibie's, he added. Akbar has repeatedly said he would not resign from the Cabinet, arguing that President Habibie himself had asked him to stay on despite his tight schedule as Golkar chairman.
Dewi's announcement on Friday that she would serve as a presidential spokeswoman when called on to do so by the President, however, has sparked new speculation over Akbar's fate in the Cabinet since the serving minister/state secretary traditionally acts as the president's chief spokesperson. "She is not a presidential spokesperson," Akbar said on Friday. He acknowledged that he had instructed Dewi, his assistant on foreign affairs, to act as alternate spokesperson when he was too busy.
Dewi, a senior political scientist, also confirmed Akbar's statement on Friday. Having long acted as Habibie's advisor on diplomatic affairs, Dewi has practically arranged all of Habibie's interviews with the foreign press.
Akbar accompanies the President in receiving important guests at the Bina Graha presidential office or at Merdeka Palace. "They like and need each other," a Palace official said.
Mike Head -- Megawati Sukarnoputri, widely touted by the Western media as Indonesia's next president, pledged to uphold the "open market system" of global capitalism on Thursday, the opening day of the congress staged by her faction of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).
Speaking before a crowd estimated at 50,000 on the island of Bali, Megawati sought to identify herself with the plight of the poor. Her voice quavered as she spoke of hungry peasant families hit by 80 percent inflation for the past year.
Yet her central message was directed to the dozens of foreign diplomats, former generals and cabinet ministers in attendance. In a bid to assure corporate investors that a PDI government would protect and uphold their interests, she urged the crowd not to oppose an "open" economy. "In the era of globalisation which calls for the implementation of an open market system, as a nation with self-confidence, we should not have the need to feel worried or scared," she said.
Her remarks are in line with the demands of the International Monetary Fund, the global financial markets and the major capitalist powers for the complete restructuring of the economy to remove all limits on the operations of the transnational banks and corporations. The IMF exploited the meltdown of the Indonesian currency to repeatedly raise the demand for an "open economy" against the longtime dictator General Suharto. When he was forced to resign in May, the same agenda was required of his anointed successor, B.J. Habibie.
The Western media interpreted Megawati's words as a promise not to follow the policies of her father, Indonesia's first president Sukarno, who fomented nationalism and placed Dutch assets under government or military control during the 1950s and 1960s to placate the demands of workers and peasants for social justice. The Sydney Morning Herald described her remarks as "an apparent signal to the scores of foreign diplomats in the audience that a PDI-led government would not turn back to her father's ruinous policies of nationalism and economic isolation". In recent years Megawati has become so closely identified with the Clinton administration in Washington that she features a US State Department human rights report as the first item on her Internet homepage. But the Bali rally showed how Megawati and her backers are walking a political tightrope. While distancing themselves from Sukarno's anti-colonial populism, they are seeking to exploit her prestige as his daughter to elevate her to cult status among the Indonesian masses.
By one police estimate, one million people gathered in the area surrounding the rally, near the beach resort of Sanur. Banners proclaiming "Mega-mania", "Mega for President", "Mega-Trend" and "Mega-Fanatic" decorated cars, shops, taxis and fishing boats.
The open-air meeting itself was a sea of red, with tens of thousands of supporters dressed in the party's colours. Red banners displayed images of both Megawati and her father. With the crowd cheering her on, Megawati made a series of demagogic and vague statements about securing "justice". She drew roars of approval when she said, "criminals should be brought to justice". This was taken as a reference to the Suharto government, although Megawati avoided any mention of the military regime.
Many of those present had travelled for days and walked for hours to reach the rally, defying threats of violence and intimidation by the Habibie-led regime. It was only a week since the government gave permission for the rally, abandoning an earlier ban.
In the days leading up to the meeting, at least 100 people were killed in a series of grisly murders and mutilations just across the sea in East Java around the town of Banyuwangi, the main port for ferries to Bali. Local people accused the military of trying to create an atmosphere of tension that could turn into violence when PDI supporters started arriving in the port.
Megawati's faction of the PDI remains illegal under the military's political system, which Habibie's administration has still not modified. The ruling Golkar party dominates the system, augmented by two authorised opposition parties, the PDI and the PPP -- the Muslim-based Indonesian Peoples Party.
In 1996 Suharto removed Megawati as president of the PDI, a move that provoked clashes involving troops, government thugs and Megawati supporters outside the PDI headquarters. Much of Megawati's recent political campaigning has been to demand that she be reinstated as head of the official PDI, although she is expected to now rename her faction as PDI-Struggle.
Under conditions where the majority of the Indonesian population faces poverty, Megawati is being promoted by the media as a figure who can unify the nation and "stop the drift towards chaos and disintegration," to use the language of Time, the US newsmagazine.
On the same day the PDI congress opened, the Habibie government released a new unemployment forecast, predicting that another two million workers would lose their jobs by the end of the year, taking the official total to 20 million. The World Bank estimate is more than twice as high -- 40 percent by the end of 1998. Food prices have risen 123.4 percent in 12 months, with the rupiah having lost 80 percent of its value.
Time hopefully predicted that Megawati's PDI would win at least 40 percent of the vote in elections scheduled by Habibie for next year. It described Megawati as "odds-on favourite" to win the December 1999 presidential ballot, with the backing of conservative Muslim leader Abdurrahman Wahid and other prominent figures. Likewise, the British Broadcasting Commission (BBC) hailed Megawati's "triumphant re-entry into formal politics" and called her "a symbol of resistance during the Suharto era" who has become "the country's most popular opposition figure". Reuters news agency contrasted Megawati's rally with Habibie's lack of support. "His strong link to the now-discredited Suharto regime make him an unlikely choice for an electorate seeking quick reform of their battered economic and political system," it said.
With support for Golkar plumetting and a plethora of some 80 other parties seeking registration, sections of the Indonesian political elite have joined the campaign to mythologise Megawati as a charismatic martyr of the struggle against Suharto. "Suharto tried to make her an un-person but he created a hero," Aristides Katoppo, senior editor of the daily newspaper Suara Pembaruan told Time. In fact, Megawati almost disappeared from public view during the growing protests that forced Suharto to quit. She appealed for calm, a plea she has continued to make under Habibie.
| Arms/armed forces |
Jakarta -- A three-day meeting of regional military commanders ended here on Friday with a commitment to maintain a distance from all political groupings -- a break from New Order tradition where military chiefs very often made policies that favored Golkar.
Army Chief of Staff Gen. Subagyo Hadisiswoyo told reporters after the closing ceremony that it had been agreed at the meeting that regional military chiefs should not support only Golkar, but also other parties.
"The Armed Forces (ABRI) will maintain similar ties with all political parties," he said, adding that the new concept was born during the meeting. "The meeting of regional military commanders was used as a forum for ABRI leaders to introspect on their past political stance. The meeting was also preparation to disseminate ABRI's new concept for its sociopolitical role," he said.
The new concept of ABRI's sociopolitical role was unveiled before the media by ABRI Commander Gen. Wiranto last August. "ABRI will now play more of a supporting, albeit influential, role on the political stage," Wiranto announced on Aug. 21. "ABRI does not have to always be at the forefront. ABRI can act as a partner who does not necessarily have to hold a key position but can still play an influential role," he said. The ABRI chief also said that the Armed Forces would be ready to share its political role with nonmilitary partners. Subagyo said there should then be no more questions about ABRI's position in the country's political affairs.
The Armed Forces' past record of involvement in politics and its strong presence in the political arena have frequently been blamed by some political observers and activists as the cause of slow democratization in the country. Armed Forces personnel do not vote in general elections, but they are currently allocated 75 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR).
Speaking about the spouses and children of Armed Forces members, Subagyo said they were given the freedom to channel their political aspirations through any political party. "They are free to vote for any political party," he said. Separately, sociocultural observer Emha Ainun Najib suggested that the Armed Forces completely abandon its sociopolitical role and play a security role only.
"While democratization is the people's main topic of discussion, ABRI personnel should not be involved in politics but should return to the barracks," he said in a discussion on violence held by the National Front -- a body of government opposition groups -- on Friday.
"It's high time state leadership and all government policies were controlled by civilians. ABRI should only appear when the nation's security and order are in danger," he added.
He mentioned National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Amien Rais and chairwoman of the splintered Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) Megawati Soekarnoputri as appropriate figures for the state leadership. "Meanwhile, Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto should step aside and leave all state problems to the duet of Amien Rais and Megawati," he said.
Derwin Pereira, Bandung -- The writing is on the wall for the Indonesian armed forces (ABRI). Literally. At the renowned Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, students have written on campus walls: "Go to hell with ABRI." They are not alone in castigating the military these days. Many other Indonesians hold views, to varying degrees, about the organisation they once regarded as the nation's soul and saviour.
ABRI's reputation is at its lowest ebb in 30 years. An independent survey by the Centre for the Study of Development and Democracy (Cesda), a Jakarta think-tank, bears this out. Nearly 75 per cent of 1,000 people polled in August want the military to stay out of politics. Half say they do not believe "ABRI and the people are one" anymore.
The reasons are many. Perhaps the most damaging is ABRI's inability -- or unwillingness -- to stop the devastating May riots. Also, many believe units within ABRI fomented the unrest. Then came revelations about military atrocities in Aceh. Mass graves were unearthed. The Pandora's box for more disasters was open. On a less high-profile level, many ordinary people have experienced the army's heavy hand -- in the way officers and men deal with simple traffic violations, or handle labour unrest and land disputes.
Equally significant is concern within the military that ABRI's sharp end has been blunted. With Indonesia's purchasing power collapsing by over 70 per cent with the economic crisis, ABRI has been unable to maintain high-tech equipment, let alone make new purchases. Its role has been weighed down and undermined by military obsolescence and, under former President Suharto, by its role as his tool for political oppression.
Critics charge that dwifungsi, or dual function, lies at the heart of ABRI's problems. This doctrine began in the late '50s, when the army was hemmed in by increasingly left-leaning civilian politicians close to then-President Sukarno, and threatened by regional revolts. Then-army chief General A. H. Nasution called for ABRI to be given a role in running the government. It earned the label of jalan tengah or "middle way".
With the transfer of power to Mr Suharto in 1966 and with military officers moving into key political positions, the ideological justification for ABRI's role was made clearer in dwifungsi. At the core of this, made law in 1982, it would play a role as defence force and socio-political organisation, allowing it to extend total control over all government agencies and instruments of state.
Today, by its territorial structure, ABRI is represented at every level of society -- down to the villages -- in all Indonesia's 27 provinces, creating a de facto shadow government. Many civilian intellectuals resent this. They argue that it gives the military a "free hand" to conduct "innumerable excesses" by interfering in politics at the President's behest. Islamic scholar Amien Rais and his National Mandate Party (PAN) are chief proponents of this view.
So is the Indonesian Institute of Social Sciences (Lipi), whose members do not question the basic principle of dwifungsi but see the central issue as redefining the parameters of military intervention in society.
This view is shared by a number of reform-minded officers led by ABRI's socio-political affairs chief, Lieutenant-General Bambang Yudhoyono. They feel the armed forces' role in politics has hindered its development as a modern fighting force and want the doctrine re-fashioned to meet contemporary developments.
In a paper presented at a recent ABRI seminar at its Staff and Command College in Bandung, the military's Strategic and Policy Planning chief, Major-General Agus Widjojo, acknowledged that the armed forces had "exceeded its role" during Mr Suharto's New Order regime. "President Suharto gave ABRI the leeway to operate in the political system to further his political interests," he said. "We now have to find a different role to adapt to this new and fast-changing environment."
His views apparently represent a minority in the military. Observers believe a larger number of army men only pay lip service to reform and actually want to maintain the status quo.
It is easy to understand the resistance to change. For many, it is more than just a doctrine at stake. Dwifungsi has helped guarantee income and jobs after retirement. Officers could look towards becoming district or provincial chiefs -- and reap material benefits from such office. Others could expect to become MPs or serve in important positions in the bureaucracy under the kekaryaan system -- or, translated loosely, "cadre-isation".
By the late '70s, half the Cabinet and over two-thirds of regional governors were military appointees. At district level, 56 per cent of officials were ex-ABRI members. In the bureaucracy, it was 78 per cent of director-generals and 84 per cent of ministerial secretaries. In recent years, their representation in Cabinet has plummeted. But kekaryaan appointments in other areas have not -- although Lt-Gen Bambang has promised to reduce their numbers.
Another controversial issue is ABRI's support for the ruling Golkar party. Dwifungsi was used in the last three decades to maintain the political status quo. The ABRI-Golkar nexus meant that the military became associated increasingly with the state -- demonstrated most acutely in 1995 when then- army chief Raden Hartono donned the yellow Golkar jacket and publicly pledged ABRI's support. To prop up Golkar, ABRI also meddled in the affairs of other parties, most notably the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI).
In the post-Suharto era, however, senior ABRI officers have been more circumspect in giving unqualified support to Golkar or any other party. Lt-Gen Bambang has also given an assurance that the military will not take sides in next year's May election. But this is easier said than done. Analysts say ABRI's own interests dictate that it should stay engaged in politics. The political arena might no longer be its exclusive preserve now, but its ability to influence the grassroots remains unquestioned.
Two broad coalitions have emerged in the run-up to next year's election. The traditionalist Nadhlatul Ulama (NU) and the PDI have joined forces in most of Java. Golkar and the modernist Muhammadiyah have linked up in Sumatra, Yogyakarta and elsewhere.
With the exception of Golkar and NU, only ABRI has such extensive reach into rural areas. Its support for either party would affect the political outcome. But it is still an open question whether ABRI will remain impartial.
According to a senior ABRI source, the military was "keeping a close watch" on how Golkar was shaping up for the polls and any support for it was dependent on a presidential directive. He also said that some officers were "not too happy" with ABRI chief Gen Wiranto's decision to back State Secretary Akbar Tandjung for the Golkar chairmanship during the recent party congress. "In principle, it is not our call to support any party. That is our public pledge. Of course, it will be a different matter altogether if the President wants us to back Golkar. Gen Wiranto will follow his orders if he thinks it will benefit both sides."
Dr Habibie's relationship with ABRI is at best complicated. ABRI, which worked under a former general for the last 30 years, is now learning to deal with a civilian president who is also its supreme commander. Will it ride shotgun for him or serve broader interests of state?
Lt-Gen Bambang says ABRI needs to review its relationship with the President as the 1945 Constitution was "cloudy" on this issue. "In future, the structural relationship between ABRI and the supreme commander must be regulated clearly. It should also be clear when a president should function as the head of state, or head of government, or ABRI supreme commander." Military insiders say his comments underscore sentiments among some senior officers who feel ABRI is still used as a tool of state even after Mr Suharto's fall.
Its role in the Golkar congress is a case in point. Insiders say there were moves to revive a plan -- quashed by Mr Suharto in 1988 -- to put distance the military from the President. The plan tried to "correct" the oath, sworn by every soldier, to ensure allegiance is to the Indonesian flag and Constitution -- not to the head of state.
If the military is making moves to bolster its position, so is Dr Habibie, albeit more aggressively. Earlier this month, he put a trusted ally, Lt-Gen Z. A. Maulani, in place as head of the powerful state coordinating intelligence agency (Bakin) -- thus over-ruling Gen Wiranto's choice, Lt-Gen Arie Kumaat, and completing the circle of influential senior military men around him.
The other three are Coordinating Minister for Security and Political Affairs, Gen Feisal Tanjung: Home Affairs Minister, Lt-Gen Syarwan Hamid; and Information Minister, Lt-Gen Yunus Yosfiah. The move puts paid to conventional thinking that ABRI is united in opposing Dr Habibie. Alliance fault-lines are still fluid within, and outside the armed forces.
The key to shifting the balance of power lies with Gen Wiranto who commands 500,000 troops. But he has been keeping his cards close to his chest. The Javanese cult of obedience and his adherence to the Constitution might explain his current political posture. There are other plausible reasons. Some observers believe he is holding back because he has yet to fully consolidate his power base given the existing rifts in ABRI. An army intelligence source estimates this will take a year.
More importantly, ABRI officers say Gen Wiranto wanted to give Dr Habibie a chance to restore the country's economy, so he pledged support for the new government. But what if the President fails to revive Indonesia's flagging fortunes and there is widespread unrest? A two-star army general said that if that happened, ABRI "will have no hesitation siding with the people if they do not want this government. Forget it if you think we are going to sit on the sidelines and watch this country go down."
Other senior officers are cautious, saying that if there is chaos they would "advise the President of the deteriorating security situation" and leave it to him to decide if he wants to step down. In either case, should Dr Habibie leave, and given that there is no vice- president, there will be room for Gen Wiranto or another general to rise by default.
Gen Wiranto has maintained that the military is not blinded by power and would redefine dwifungsi to meet challenges: "ABRI is developing a new paradigm in that it does not always have to be at the forefront of the nation's political affairs and is ready to share its political role with non-ABRI partners."
Implicit in his comments is that the armed forces will continue to play a role in politics and not disengage completely. But some officers lament the slow pace of internal change. They fear that the ABRI chief, who has said that the process could take five years, is not moving fast enough and "has his feet in different places" -- including links to Mr Suharto.
Some officers talk of a 70:30 per cent divide for dwifungsi -- with the larger portion allocated to a conventional defence role. This is possible, theoretically, if there is economic and political stability, they said. The real test will be if the crisis deepens. Will ABRI go alone or work with civilians?
Several younger officers, who graduated from the military academy in the '70s and hold key appointments now, are pushing for modernisation and see eye-to-eye with their civilian counterparts. But their basic world-view is still dominated by that drive to preserve national unity and stability -- resorting to force if necessary.
If push comes to shove, democracy will have to take a back seat to prevent Indonesia from "collapse, anarchy and disintegration". Some argue that such thinking, shaped by developments over the last 50 years, reflects "the strategic realities of a bygone age".
ABRI is attempting to play the role of midwife in the country's transition to a democracy. Its move in this direction, however, is being held back by history, doctrine and vested interests. It remains to be seen whether it can break from this mould.