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ASIET NetNews Number 23 - June 22-28, 1998

Democratic struggle

  • Military suppresses student-worker protests
  • Jakarta braces for more unrest
  • Reformasi in provinces focus on corruption
  • A demonstration: Habibie's birthday present
  • Students protest at Golkar office
  • Pakpahan will set up a workers' party
  • Army sends more troops to strike factory
  • Moslem students rally to protest prices
  • East Timor
  • EU visit restricted by security fears
  • Clash leaves one man dead, two wounded
  • Rioting, governor's office damaged
  • East Timorese plan fresh protests
  • Massive convoy of protest in East Timor
  • Status offer not enough, locals warn
  • Political/economic crisis
  • Looters attack Indonesian shopping center
  • Indonesia's poverty rate may double
  • Accusations fly of masterminded riots
  • Labour issues
  • More strikes break out in Indonesia
  • Human rights/law
  • Freed political prisoners not immune to law
  • More pressure needed on disappearances
  • Politics
  • Soeharto 'has means for political comeback'
  • Habibie's advisers shaping him as president
  • Megawati favored as the next president
  • Military: stop protracted polemics
  • Round two: Suharto's comeback?
  • Arms/armed forces
    Military vows to foil labor demonstrations
    Economy and investment
  • Forest funds seized
  • IMF agreement elicits hollow applause
  • Democratic struggle

    Military suppresses student-worker protests

    ASIET - June 23, 1998

    Huge numbers of troops, tanks, rocket launchers, armed motor- cycle troops blockaded the University of Indonesia on Sunday June 21 to stop a rally of factory workers and students at the university.

    An estimated 10,000 workers were scheduled to rally at the campus in an action coordinated by the University of Indonesia Peoples Struggle Command Post (PPR-UI) and the Workers Committee for Reformation Action (KOBAR). According to a KOMPAS newspaper report, PPR-UI spokesperson, Dogi, said that the rally of Jabotabek [the industrial era outside Jakarta] was a well planned event with no likelihood of any unwanted excesses.

    Another PPR-UI spokesperson, Reiner, stated that the military had also dispersed gatherings of workers in the Jabotabek area as they prepared to travel by bus into the city. An ASIET activist on the scene also reported that the PPR-UI marquis that had been used as an assembly point by students since May 20 was also removed.

    The head of the labour division of the Indonesian Legal Aid foundation (YLBHI), Teten Masduki and the Jakarta labour division head, Surya Tjandra, said that the use of force against the students and worker gatherings could not be defended, either from a human rights or from a public order pint of view. KOMPAS reported them as agreeing that this method was a specific feature of the operations of the New Order.

    Togap Simanungkalit, chairman of the Indonesian Prosperity for Workers Union (SBSI), in a written press statement quoted by KOMPAS stated that the SBSI "knows nothing about this action" and was not participating in the workers rally at the University.

    In a separate press conference, General Chairman of the SBSI, Mochtar Pakpahan, announced that the SBSI would hold an action on Wednesday 24 June to "request that the government carry out national reconciliation to discuss the reformation agenda and to hold a special session of the Peoples Consultative Assembly".

    Jakarta braces for more unrest

    The Age - June 23, 1998 (abridged)

    Louise Williams, Jakarta -- Armed soldiers fanned out across Jakarta today as a key labor leader threatened to launch a new wave of protests from Wednesday. Dr Muchtar Pakpahan called for a "reconciliation dialogue" between the Habibie Government and reform groups and the release of all remaining political prisoners.

    Dr Pakpahan, head of the Indonesian Prosperity Trade Union, which was banned under the Soeharto Government, said he would begin with a small demonstration on Wednesday and gradually increase the numbers on the street until his demands were met. He said the changes under the new Habibie Government were "accelerated evolution", and fell far short of the "total reforms" demanded by students and other protesters who forced President Soeharto to step down last month.

    Jakarta military command spokesman, Lieutenant-Colonel D.J.Nachrowi, said the heavy presence of armed troops at many shopping centres, office buildings, public parks and along main roadways since the weekend was a deliberate attempt to ensure people that the city was safe.

    "We just want to show that there's no riot and all the streets are safe. The troops will be deployed as long as the people need their presence," he said, refusing to link the deployment to any protest plans.

    Over the weekend President Habibie told Australian journalists there would be no crackdown on demonstrations. But the chief of the Armed Forces and Defence Minister, General Wiranto, has warned against "exaggerated freedoms" and rumors which have been creating jitters in the capital.

    Reformasi in provinces focus on corrupt officials

    Far Eastern Economic Review - July 2, 1998

    Margot Cohen, Pekanbaru, Riau -- A tribal leader reaches over to grasp the gnarled, arthritic hand of a local elder. He straightens one finger and holds it upright. "This is good politics," he announces to the illiterate men, women and children crouched around him on the bare wooden floor. They nod their heads and smile shyly. Then he lets the elder's finger curve back towards the palm. "This is crooked politics," he intones.

    That simple lesson in politics, demonstrated in the hamlet of Penasoserai in Riau province, is one that many Indonesians across the country know only too well. "Crooked politics" during Suharto's 32 long years as president is held responsible for the evils of inequitable development, which made government officials and business groups rich while depriving local communities of their land and livelihood. Tackling this bitter legacy is the task of reformasi, the word coined for Indonesia's combustible reform movement. Reformasi has released new hopes, but if change lags, frustrations could intensify to dangerous new levels.

    In Jakarta, the years of repression have given way to a headlong -- often headstrong -- scramble to form new political parties, rewrite laws, and investigate the Suharto family wealth. In the provinces, however, reformasi has followed a different path. For now, at least, organizing new political parties is on the back- burner, while student activists -- encouraged by their success in helping to remove Suharto -- have turned their wrath on local officials whom they view as irretrievably corrupt. Together with their new allies in academic and business circles, they believe purging the bureaucracy is essential to implement policy reforms.

    Coming to the fore, too, is a long-suppressed bitterness in the provinces towards Jakarta and the Javanese-dominated bureaucracy. The emotional outpouring is not confined to Aceh, East Timor and Irian Jaya -- provinces with the most prominent histories of insurgency -- but has emerged in the rest of the non-Java countryside as well. The mood is towards promoting local leaders and capturing from Jakarta a greater proportion of profits generated from local natural resources. Villagers are also striving to reclaim lands lost to large plantations, golf courses and other megaprojects fuelled by domestic and foreign investment. For their part, community leaders are pressing large companies to hire local workers and respond to welfare needs. Another source of tension in the provinces is the increasingly open resentment towards ethnic- Chinese traders and contractors.

    Will all these tensions destroy Indonesia? In the short term, the clamour from the countryside does not appear likely to spark national disintegration, as the armed forces fears. Widespread disgruntlement with Javanese predominance is still tempered by strong nationalist feelings. With the exception of East Timor, the demands are for greater autonomy and a quicker pace of decentralization, rather than a desire for an outright split with Jakarta. The challenge remains for President B.J. Habibie -- himself a product of the colonially termed "Outer Islands" -- to slake the provinces' thirst for change.

    Riau (population: 4 million) is an illustration of just how keen is that thirst. As riots raged through Jakarta on May 14, and Suharto's New Order government teetered on the edge, Muchtar Ahmad, the charismatic rector of Riau University, got together with a dozen friends in the business and academic fields to discuss ways to implement reformasi at the local level. By the time Suharto resigned on May 21, Muchtar and his colleagues had already formed the Riau Institute for Monitoring Reforms, with different divisions for law, education, politics and economics. "Ideally, the provinces must take the lead in working towards clean government," says Muchtar. "We don't want to wait for Jakarta."

    In Riau, unpopular officials down the line have become targets of public disdain -- from the governor of the province and mayor of its capital, Pekanbaru, to district chiefs and village heads. "The little Suhartos in the villages must be replaced," says Al Azhar, a local scholar of Malay literature and culture. Standing in the line of fire at the higher echelons of power is the affable Soeripto, 63, a retired lieutenant-general from central Java who has been Riau's governor for the past 10 years.

    Fond of throwing karaoke parties in his private music pavilion at home, Soeripto was widely viewed as an ambassador in Riau for the Suharto family's diverse business interests, which include plantations, resorts and shipping. Soeripto's role in "coordinating" lucrative sales of Riau sand for reclamation projects in Singapore has been debated heatedly, although the governor maintains he has never profited personally. Soeripto, whose two terms as governor are up, plans to stay on through December to oversee a transition to his successor. But that's too slow for Riau's student activists and for Muchtar, who accuses Soeripto of being busy "salvaging his wealth."

    Also the target of reformasi in Riau is Paris Ginting, a colonel from North Sumatra who has been in Pekanbaru for the past five years as the provincial government's chief of social and political affairs. "An official must dare to go naked! He must show his scabs! If he doesn't dare, then he's a hypocrite!" exclaims Paris, in keeping with the spirit of reformasi. But asked to cite a decision he now regrets, or any other example of a "scab," he is stumped.

    A newly unfettered local press has reported claims by student protesters that Paris is linked to local gambling and prostitution -- charges that the colonel vigorously denies. Pain flickers across his face as he recalls his family's bewilderment at the negative press coverage. "We cannot allow the law of the jungle. That's dangerous," he says.

    The jungle passed judgment in June -- Paris' transfer was abruptly announced. Soeripto also decided to authorize an investigation aimed at the Pekanbaru mayor, Oesman Effendi Apan, and submit a report of his own wealth to the Riau prosecutors' office, as expressly requested by the central government on June 11. (To the press, Soeripto offered a ballpark figure of 3 billion-4 billion rupiah, or $225,000-$300,750, which many critics say is still an understatement.)

    Across Indonesia, such incidents of partial capitulation, if not defeat, have whetted the public appetite for taking on corrupt officials. Even homegrown bureaucrats, who once prided themselves on replacing their Javanese counterparts, are being caught in the net. That disturbs local leaders like Tenas Effendy, an advocate for the Orang Suku Petalangan, an indigenous minority group. "Government cadres from Riau will be wiped out," he laments. "Outsiders will be brought in. It will take a long time before locals can rise again." Like a growing number of Indonesians, Tenas wonders also about the standards to apply in the ongoing purge. "Perhaps only a five-year-old child is free of corruption, collusion and nepotism," he says. "Whoever is on top will be criticized."

    Many officials of the ruling Golkar party, known for its allegiance to Suharto, are hoping that this brand of logic will work in their favour. If voters decide that nobody's perfect, they may opt for old faces in general elections scheduled for May 1999. Indeed, some analysts say current Golkar officials could survive reformasi, even if the party goes under. "They will all wear different clothes and assume different names," says Aris Abeba, the dapper head of information and publishing for Golkar's Riau branch. "The loyalty of Golkar cadres is very thin. They are more prone to think in terms of their own interests." Face facts, he argues: "Whoever is in power will still engage in corruption, collusion and nepotism. It's in the heart."

    Family interest of a different sort lies close to the heart of Mohamad Yusuf, 67, a leader of the Sakai, an indigenous minority. His people used to populate the virgin forests of central Riau, before the land was taken over in the early 1990s by large companies to cultivate rubber and oil-palm trees. Yusuf says that his family, consisting of six wives and 11 children, was one of many that lost their ancestral land to Jakarta-approved development, for minimal compensation. Complaints filed with the police, the parliament, and local district officials did not draw much attention. "Suharto got 400 trillion rupiah, and we got 25,000 for a three-hectare plot," grumbles Yusuf.

    Sitting bare-chested next to him, Zainal, 50, insists that with a change of president in Jakarta, "it's time for the Sakai to ask for the return of the land." He recalls nostalgically the old way of life: deer-hunting, fishing, wood-gathering. Then the forest was taken over "by rich people, important people," and Zainal and his family were transferred to a government-built house with a cement floor and zinc roof. Although this was an improvement over their usual shelter of leaves, logs and bark, little else has changed for the Zainal family in the trade-off for "civilization." Zainal still cannot afford to send any of his seven children to school, and his occasional daily wage of 5,000 rupiah for agricultural work is just enough to keep the family in sweet-potato flour. Rice is an unimaginable luxury.

    Other Sakai families are slightly more fortunate. They can afford a diet of rice mixed with sweet potato, although now that the price of rice is climbing, the portions are shrinking. In addition, they've lost a source of income ever since Adei Crumb Rubber, the plantation company which holds cultivation rights to the surrounding land, reportedly cracked down on wood-gathering three months ago. Sakai families used to barter the collected wood for sacks of rice, but now have to rely solely on earnings from the sale, for 200 rupiah per kilogram, of heavy chunks of hardened rubber called damar. "It's an indirect form of murder," fumes Ridwan, another Sakai leader.

    Undoubtedly, there is a close connection between land rights and provincial politics, say Riau intellectuals. Sakai leader Yusuf seems optimistic that the provincial government will hand over two hectares of land per family, for oil-palm cultivation. For his part, Tabrani Rab, head of a cultural think-tank in Pekanbaru, believes that the people's rights will be restored if a Riau native becomes governor. "We don't want a Javanese to assume leadership here," he says. "Behind the Javanese, there is always conspiracy with the conglomerates."

    Some business groups are eager to prove their support for reformasi, however. At a June 9 meeting hosted by Muchtar's institute, representatives from Riau Andalan Pulp & Paper candidly discussed sensitive issues like unresolved land claims and employment of Riau natives. Throughout the night Riau Andalan was grilled by the institute's members, but as law professor Husnu Abadi told company representatives, "better we speak sharply here, than hit the streets." With smiles and reassurances, the officials promised to review all the complaints before them, and in particular to improve the company's strategy to recruit more locals.

    Employment of Riau natives is a tricky problem that many domestic and foreign companies have grappled with over the past few years. Education levels are low in Riau, and so companies prefer to hire better-qualified people from outside the province. Some have got around the issue by applying the definition of a Riau native very loosely, but now Muchtar's institute wants more stringent criteria. That poses hurdles for companies like Caltex, which has been a major presence in Riau for the past 60 years and has 6,050 employees and another 25,000 contract workers. Gary Fitzgerald, managing director of Caltex Pacific Indonesia, says that roughly 1,000 of its employees were born in Riau, but his personnel office offers no clues on whether they are indigenous, as demanded by the reform-monitoring institute. Indeed, Fitzgerald says the company hires people strictly on merit, and doesn't make "distinctions by race or ethnic background."

    Most importantly, reformasi advocates also want at least 1% of revenue from oil output in Riau to flow back to the local government. Currently the province, which supplies nearly half of Indonesia's oil, gets nothing. In 1997, Jakarta earned an estimated $3 billion in oil revenue and taxes; meanwhile, hundreds of Riau villages are still classified as "backward." In mid-June student activists protested at this inequality outside Caltex, and plan to take their demands straight to President Habibie. But Riau Governor Soeripto believes they should ask for a percentage from Pertamina, the national oil firm, and not from Caltex. Indeed, Pertamina gets 88% of total revenue under a production-sharing contract, while Caltex gets only 12%.

    Another burning issue for Riau's student activists is the economic dominance of the ethnic Chinese; some believe reformasi should be used to end this control. On the island of Bengkalis, four hours by speedboat from Pekanbaru, the military -- with an imperiousness reminiscent of the Suharto days -- prevented students from staging a demonstration against corruption. The students insisted that their protest would be peaceful, but rumours floated nonetheless that they wanted to burn down the town, together with Chinese-owned shops. The talk startled the ethnic-Chinese community, which has long viewed Bengkalis as a haven. "We fully support reformasi," insists Hamid Dahlian, an ethnic-Chinese businessman and community leader on the island. "But the people are worried that the students will be manipulated by other parties." Yet for all the emotions it is churning up, reformasi -- well-handled -- can be gratifying. Ronald Siregar, a 39-year-old entrepreneur from north Sumatra, has teamed up with a Chinese partner to build Pekanbaru's first container port. The port -- which commenced operations in December -- will enable exporters to ship directly from Pekanbaru to Singapore, he says. That means Riau now has the ability to export its furniture, fruits and coconuts. And the best part, thanks to reformasi, is that the Suharto family no longer can cast a shadow over this and other enterprises. "Before we were afraid to do business. The family could take over anytime," says Siregar, with a smile. "Now, we don't have to feel afraid."

    [According to a report in June 25 Jakarta Post, at a flag- hoisting ceremony to commemorate Jakarta's 47th anniversay, the governor of Jakarta, Sutiyoso, said that 37 city officials have been fired for violating regulations and codes of conduct - James Balowski.]

    A demonstration: Habibie's birthday present

    Association of Independent Journalist - June 25, 1998

    Jakarta -- What would be the right present for Habibie on his 62nd birthday? A demonstration. That is what around 200 pro- democracy activists under the banner of the Committee for Total Reform (Komite Reformasi Total, KRT), gave him on Thursday morning (25/6), in front of his residence at Jl. Patra 14, Kuningan Jakarta.

    KRT is a made up of a number of pro-democracy groups such as the Indonesian United Democratic Party (PUDI), the People's Democratic Party, the Fisabilillah Forum, the Islamic Forum for the Victims of Aceh, West Papua, Lampung and Tanjung Priok, the National Committee for Democratic Struggle, the Megawati Support Committee, the Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation (LBH), Jakarta LBH, the Indonesian Cultural Party, the East Timorese National Front, the Indonesian Association of Advocates, the Independent Election Monitoring Group, Committee of the Disappeared and Victims of Violence and KRT Eastern Indonesia.

    Who knows if it was because it was not considered dangerous, but the demonstrators lead by Sri Bintang Pamungkas, chairperson of PUDI, were able to hold the action at a football field which was only around 100 metres from Habibie's house. The security forces, made up of the police and the president's security guards, took no steps to drive them away. They only tried to prevent the activists from moving closer to the house.

    The demonstration continued for around an hour until 11am. There were posters and banners which questioned the legitimacy of the Habibie government and KRT read a statement which demanded steps to overcome rising prices of basic goods, the seizure of Suharto and his crony's wealth, to be used for food for the people, the abolition of the People's Representative and Consultative Assembly (DPR/MPR), the unconditional release of all political prisoners, an act of self-determination in East Timor and enacting transparent mechanisms for the general elections and the election of the next president.

    The action was enlivened with speeches from all of the representatives of the different KRT groups. Bintang Pamungkas himself gave the last speech in which he again said that the DPR/MPR is illegitimate because it was born of dishonest elections and must be abolished together with its products, including the current Habibie government.

    After Bintang's speech, the activists dispersed in an orderly manner. It is not known what Habibie's reaction was to the "birthday present" but it is certain that he had never imagined such a thing. Similarly, it is also not known what Habibie's family organised for his birthday on his first birthday since becoming president.

    [Translated by James Balowski]

    Students protest at Golkar office

    Jakarta Post - June 25, 1998

    Jakarta -- About 500 students staged a protest at the headquarters of Golkar yesterday, calling for the expulsion of two children of former president Soeharto from the dominant political organization.

    The students had earlier gathered at the House of Representatives (DPR) building where they tried, unsuccessfully, to present their demands: an early meeting of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) and for the cabinet of President B.J. Habibie to cleanse itself of corruption, collusion and nepotism. A heavy security presence denied them entry to the DPR compound. After a brief speech outside the gate, they moved on to Golkar's headquarters a few kilometers down the road.

    There they demanded that Bambang Trihatmodjo and Siti Hardijanti Rukmana resign from Golkar's central executive board. The protesters, calling themselves the Jakarta Student Senate Communication Forum consisted of students from 25 local colleges.

    Separately, Abdul Gafur, the MPR deputy chairman from Golkar, said that 20 MPR members from the group, including his wife, had resigned to help Golkar cleanse itself of nepotism charges. Gafur said that 10 other MPR members from Golkar, including the children of Soeharto, should follow suit.

    He said his wife, businesswoman Kemala Motik, was one of the first to resign from the MPR, without much publicity. "That's probably why some people who don't know the truth keep demanding her resignation," he was quoted by Antara as saying. He said Kemala stepped down not long after wives of other top Golkar leaders, including chairman Harmoko and secretary-general Ary Mardjono, tendered their resignations.

    Pakpahan will set up a workers' party

    Kompas - June 25, 1998

    Muchtar Pakpahan, chair of the SBSI, the Indonesian Prosperity Labour Union has plans to set up a National Workers Party to take on board the political aspirations of workers throughout Indonesia. He has asked Megawati Sukarnoputri to head this party.

    He talked about these plans during a meeting with workers and students at the Command Unit of the Surakarta Students Reform Council. He told reporters in reply ro questions that he had not "fled" from the security forces in Jakarta, to avoid being at the protest rally planned in Jakarta on Wednesday.

    "I was actually on my way to Surabaya but I got held back by people in Solo who were very eager for me to speak here," he said. He stressed that he was personally responsible for workers actions throughout the country.

    He said his plans to set up a party had already won wide support from workers, business people, intellectuals, NGOs and other organisations. It comes from groups that were victimised under the old regime, from the NU, Kosgoro, PUDI, the legal aid institute, WALHI and others.

    He had also had consultations with Megawati and had offered her the chirmanship. He foresaw that Megawati would become Indonesia's fourth president. But this would be impossible as long as people like General Feisal Tanjung, who had caused problems for Megawati's PDI were still sitting in the cabinet.

    [According to a June 28 by Kompas, the head of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Abdurrahman Wahid, has supported a request by 15 regional chapters to setup a party under NU. Personally, he said he preferred a nationalist party be established outside of NU which may in the future, link up with Megawati's PDI. A report in the June 23 Jakarta Post said that the new party would be called the "Community Awakening Party" and would be declared on August 17 (independence day) - James Balowski.].

    Army sends more troops to strike factory

    Reuters - June 25, 1998

    Surabaya -- The Indonesian army more than doubled its presence at a strike-hit Surabaya factory complex on Thursday as a separate union protest gathered around the local parliament.

    The army feared that three-day-old strike and the union protest could merge into riots, military sources said. The 4,000 strikers are demanding higher wages, an increase in food and transportation allowances and shorter working hours. The number of soldiers deployed at and around the factory complex rose from about 100 to more than 200 on Thursday.

    On Monday, 10,000 workers from another plant, the Kasogi shoe factory, descended on the main streets of Surabaya, Indonesia's second largest city. More than 200 members of the Indonesia Labour Prosperity Trade Union (SBSI) gathered at the local parliament on Thursday. They demanded a 20 percent workers' stake in every Indonesian company, the formation of a national labour council and the revocation of a law that forbids the formation of labour unions.

    Moslem students rally to protest prices

    Agence France Presse - June 22, 1998 (slightly abridged)

    Jakarta -- About 500 Moslem students rallied outside parliament here Monday to protest against rising prices of food staples, witnesses said.

    "Lower prices... people are hungry" read one banner waved by the students, who also carried national flags and those of their universities and Moslem boarding schools. About 30 soldiers blocked the students entry into the parliamentary complex, while 30 MPs stood by watching the rally. There were no reports of violence.

    Busloads of students from outside Jakarta were continuing to arrive at the parliament in the early afternoon as the demonstrators chanted Moslem prayers.

    East Timor

    EU visit restricted by security fears

    Agence France Presse - June 28, 1998 (abridged)

    Dili -- Security concerns forced three European Union (EU) ambassadors to abandon plans Sunday to attend a mass and visit a university in East Timor, protocol officials said. The change in plans followed clashes in the capital Dili on Saturday between pro- and anti-Indonesian East Timorese around the arrival of the visitors in the troubled former Portuguese colony.

    They had been scheduled to attend early morning Sunday mass at Dili's Roman Catholic cathedral. But Manuel Isaac, a member of the protocol staff of the governor's office told an AFP reporter the plan was derailed by "security concerns" when hundreds of East Timorese headed for the church.

    A subsequent visit to the University of Timor Timur, a separatist stronghold, was also cancelled and the three Jakarta ambassadors instead met student leaders at their hotel on Dili bay, Isaac said. At the university, a huge banner reading "Welcome EU ambassadors" hung over the entrance, as some 800 disappointed demonstrators from the Cathedral poured onto the campus, an AFP reporter said.

    East Timorclash leaves one man dead, two wounded

    Dow Jones Newswires - June 27, 1998 (abridged)

    Dili -- Indonesian troops shot dead one man and seriously wounded two others when rival groups of protesters clashed in a town in East Timor Saturday, witnesses said.

    An Indonesian security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the incident happened in front of a Catholic church in Manatutu, about 60 kilometers east of the territory's capital, Dili. He said troops opened fire when opposing groups of pro and anti-Indonesian demonstrators began fighting. Hundreds of people took part in the melee, which was also marred by rock throwing.

    Later anti-Indonesian activists brought the body of the dead man, identified as Manuel Marquez Soares, 21, to Dili and carried it through its streets in protest. They took it to the University of East Timor, a center of separatists protest, where more than 800 gathered to mourn the dead victim and to demand that the Indonesian government hold a referendum on the future of the former Portuguese colony.

    [A June 23 report by Lusa said that the National Council of Timorese Resistance (CNRT) has accused Indonesian troops of fomenting trouble. CNRT's office in Portugal said in a statement that "trustworthy sources" had confirmed that 600 people had been armed and organised under the leadership of Edmundo, a local Timorese leader. "They are waiting to go to Dili tomorrow (Tuesday) and raise trouble during the demonstrations being held in the Dili", the statement said - James Balowski.]

    Rioting, governor's office damaged

    Kompas - June 28, 1998 (abridged)

    Dili - With the delegation of European Union Ambassadors having set foot on Dili, East Timor's capital, less than an hour on Saturday, riots started in this city of some 170,000 inhabitants. Stone-throwing bouts broke out in the heart of the city between pro-integration plus pro-autonomy groups and those demanding a referendum.

    The governor's office was among buildings damaged by the mob. The riots moved into higher gear when the corpse of Manuel Soares (21), a youth shot dead the day before in Manatuto Regency, was paraded around the city.

    Five members of the European Union Ambassadors delegation landed at the Comoro Airport, Dili, around 12.50 local time. They were met by a crowd of about 1,000 persons who came in dozens of trucks and private cars. The crowd which called itself supporters of integration and autonomy, asked that the ambassadors should take notice of their aspirations.

    Riots began to swamp Dili when the mass of integration supporters started to enter the Regional Parliament building. It is not clear how it started, but suddenly stone-throwing began between that crowd and and a mass of referendum supporters who came streaming in from the direction of the Old Mercado market.

    Anti-riot units of the Mobile Brigade were brought in quickly, preventing the crowd from getting onto the Regional Parliament grounds. From the opposite direction, Dili District Military Commander Lt. Col. Endar Priyanto led his troops personally in dispersing the crowd.

    A crowd which came later tried to march towards Hotel Mahkota where the ambassadors are accommodated. Before reaching that objective the crowd ransacked the governor's office. A number of automobiles were wrecked, including the governor's official car.

    N Aruan, public relations head for the regional government, said that his office suffered the most. A number of men even threatened him with machetes. Similar threats were aimed at an Antara reporter who was stationed in the locality. The crowd screamed at newly arriving people to stay away.

    He said that some 300-400 persons suddenly appeared and streamed towards the governor's office. Some came by motorbike. At that time a meeting was underway on the top floor between East Timor Governor Abilio Jose Osoares and the European Union Ambassadors delegation.

    Commenting in the incident he considered extremely embarassing, Abilio said furiously that if this was what they wanted he was ready to wage war on them again.

    The situation in the city of Dili heated up increasingly when the corpse of Manuel Soares arrived at the university campus around 14.00 hours. A crowd of 3,000 screamed ferociously, condemning the shooting incident which happened on Friday morning. Manuel's corpse was paraded around town by thousands of citizens. He was taken to Bishop Belo's residence while members of the ambassadors delegation were there. The bishop himself was in Aileu, 40 km to the south of Dili.

    The commander of Military Resort 164/Wira Dharma said that the perpetrators of the incident were still being investigated. It started with the stopping of 20 truchs transporting a crowd of integration supporters from the Lautem Regency, on the border of Baucau and Manatuto. They were stopped by an anti-integration group, which started to throw stones. But somehow, volley shooting was heard. He added that eight pro-integration youth were in hospital for being hit by stones.

    [According to a June 26 report by Reuters, many of the "pro- integration" protesters said that had been given the day off and ordered to join the demonstration. One protester told Reuters "We have been asked to join the protest and sign an attendance list". Others admitted that many of them were not even East Timorese - James Balowski.]

    East Timorese plan fresh protests

    Reuters - June 24, 1998 (abridged)

    Lewa Pardomuan, Dili -- East Timorese reacted coolly on Wednesday to a meeting between the territory's Bishop Carlos Belo and Indonesian President B.J. Habibie and said fresh protests demanding a referendum on independence would be held on Thursday.

    The territory's capital Dili, a seafront city of 130,000 people, was quiet on Wednesday, but students and residents said a large protest would be held on Thursday. Thousands of East Timorese, shouting "Viva Timor Leste" and "Viva Xanana," toured Dili on bicycles and buses on Tuesday to demand self-determination in the former Portuguese colony. No violence was reported.

    When asked about the meeting in Jakarta, one resident said: "It's only a meeting. I don't expect much from it. There will be another big protest tomorrow to call for a referendum... that's what I know."

    Student leader Antero Bendito da Silva said the planned protest would start at the house of Herman das Dores Soares, 21, who was shot dead last week by an Indonesian soldier in Manatuto, 100 km (63 miles) east of Dili, when collecting wood with his cousin. "We will start it at Herman's house, then to the Santa Cruz cemetery and later to the East Timor University," he said.

    Herman's mother, Rosa Soares Sarmento, when asked about the meeting in Jakarta said: "I just hope this will bring a good result... that the military will be pulled out from East Timor. The military is here only to shoot at people."

    What "special status" really means (comment by Tapol)

    The offer of "special status" to East Timor by the Habibie Government has been firmly rejected by resistance leader Xanana Gusmao, and the Protuguese government. When people mention "special status", reference is usually made to Aceh where such a status was granted in the 1970s to ward off support for the Daud Beureuh Muslim movement in the province.

    However, what is never mentioned is that in 1980, Aceh was designated a "Daerah operasi militer" or military operation area, known as DOM, which is still in place to this day. DOM has been justified by the armed forces leadership on the grounds of the need to crush the Free Aceh Movement. But for the population, this has meant curfews, road-blocks, raids and a heavy military presence. There have been thousands of "disappearances" especially during the period 1989 - 1993 at the height of the military operations. DOM has also served as a convenient cover for corrupt practices by military and civilian officials.

    There is now a very active campaign underway in Aceh for the withdrawal of DOM. People from all walks of life are supporting the campaign, even including members of the local assembly and top religious leaders. Several students are currently staging a hunger strike "to the death" unless DOM is withdrawn. They have the moral and material support of the population.

    So, even though Aceh has "special status" which is supposed to mean greater autonomy, the hand of the army weighs very heavily on the region. What is "special" about Aceh is not greater autonomy but far greater militarisation than most other provinces in Indonesia. In any discussion of the proposal for "special status", the farce of special status for Aceh should be highlighted.

    Massive convoy of protest in East Timor

    Straits Times - June 24, 1998 (abridged)

    Dili -- An estimated 50,000 people paraded through the streets of the East Timor capital yesterday in a motorcade protest calling for reform and dialogue on the future of the troubled territory, witnesses said.

    The demonstrators, mostly students and youths, took a convoy of hundreds of trucks, buses, cars and motorcycles to the governor's office to meet the Jakarta-appointed East Timor Governor Jose Osorio Abilio Soares. Security was almost non-existent and human-rights activist Ze Luis of the Foundation for Law, Human Rights and Justice said no incidents were reported.

    "There is a need for an open dialogue involving all elements of the population, to seek a settlement to the question of East Timor," one witness quoted the Governor as telling the students.

    Mr Soares also told student representatives that he had met jailed East Timorese rebel leader Xanana Gusmao in his prison in Jakarta recently. He said Gusmao had told him that a referendum on self-determination for the former Portuguese colony would take more than five years to prepare. First a dialogue was needed between representatives of various East Timorese groups to seek an acceptable and durable solution for East Timor, Mr Soares said.

    Mr Soares also told the students that the authorities would not ban rallies at universities. "But please, respect the human rights of other people, do not disturb their tranquility and peace." The motorcade dispersed around noon, when part of it broke off and headed for the local Parliament where hundreds of students and youth staged a rally there.

    [It should be noted that on a number of occasions, Soares has "misquoted" Gusmao and any such statements are open to question. Last week for example, Soares claimed that Gusmao had told him he agreed with the proposal that he be released in exchange for East Timor being acknowledged as part of Indonesia while a number of other news sources quoted him as saying that autonomy was not enough and that he blamed Soares for the ongoing military presence - James Balowski.]

    Status offer not enough, locals warn

    Sydney Morning Herald - June 22, 1998

    Louise Williams Jakarta and Jenny Grant in Dili -- A new offer from Indonesia to grant East Timor special status and release the jailed resistance leader Xanana Gusmao would provide only a transitional solution, East Timorese leaders warned yesterday.

    Indonesia's President B.J. Habibie told Australian correspondents at the weekend that he would grant the contested province special status, arrange Xanana's immediate release, reduce the presence of Indonesian troops and offer guerilla fighters amnesty, all in exchange for United Nations recognition of Indonesian rule of the territory.

    This is the first concrete compromise offer from Jakarta since the Indonesian invasion of the former Portuguese colony in 1975, sparking a conflict which locals say has cost 200,000 lives.

    But independence groups warned of more trouble ahead if this was Jakarta's final offer. The secretary of the Dili diocese in the predominantly Catholic province, Father Domingos Siguera, said: "It sounds good. It is a real concession for which we've already waited too long."

    However, he warned that special status could only serve as a transitional mechanism. "If that is the final status for East Timor there will be much more bloodshed and troubles," Father Siguera said after celebrating Mass at the home of the head of the Catholic Church in East Timor, the Most Rev Carlos Belo.

    Student groups, who have staged a series of demonstrations in Dili calling for an internationally supervised referendum on East Timor's future, angrily rejected the offer as a ploy for Dr Habibie to win international legitimacy. A student leader, Antero Benedito de Silva, said: "It is not Habibie's right to give us special status, it is the right of the East Timorese to have self-determination through a referendum."

    The Catholic Church and East Timorese independence groups are calling for an internationally supervised referendum to offer the people a choice between integration into Indonesia, the formation of an independent nation or federation with Portugal. The East Timorese are unlikely to accept the Habibie proposal as a final offer because their status in the UN is their strongest bargaining counter.

    Xanana's sister, Ms Armandina Santos, said the offer to release her brother was a stunt to end the debate on the territory's future, and urged the UN not to consider the proposal without first sending an assessment team to East Timor. The exiled East Timorese resistance spokesman, Mr Jose Ramos-Horta, called the Indonesian offer "totally unacceptable".

    However, analysts believe the offer reflects potential for movement on the East Timor issue following the resignation of president Soeharto last month. Already Indonesian troops have pulled back to their barracks and are allowing demonstrations in the province, which would have provoked widespread arrests and a military crackdown under the Soeharto regime.

    Diplomatic sources said it was possible a solution could be worked out in which East Timor would remain within Indonesia, with Jakarta responsible for external defence and the East Timorese in control of internal administration.

    Portugal has rejected the Habibie proposal. A government spokesman said that if Indonesia wanted to move towards democracy, the East Timorese must have the right to choose their own future. An internationally supervised referendum on integration, and direct negotiations between the UN and the East Timorese were "indispensable".

    [According to a June 21 report by Reuters, Xanana was visited by the governor of East Timor, Abilio Jose Osorio Soares, last week and they were believed to have discussed the initiative. Gusmao has rejected the offer saying "There won't be a solution without a referendum. This is something the Indonesian government must understand. Only a referendum will guarantee a solution that is just as well as a stable and lasting peace". A June 21 report by AFP quoted Soares as saying "I have met with Xanana and he would also be very thankful for the opportunity of a dialogue". He also said "...nowhere in the world has a referendum ever solved problems... only dialogue has managed the task - James Balowski.]

    Political/economic crisis

    Looters attack Indonesian shopping center

    Reuters - June 25, 1998 (slightly abridged)

    Jakarta -- Some 50 people attacked and looted a shopping centre in Indonesia's East Kalimantan province on the island of Borneo on Thursday after a protest rally turned violent, the official Antara news agency reported.

    Antara said panic spread through the city of Samarinda and shops were closed after youths began throwing stones and looting the Eka Raya store and Sumber Sari Mini-Market. "I lost millions of rupiahs today," Predy, owner of the Eka Raya store, was quoted as saying. "They took clothes, shoes and hats from my store. Most of my windows were also shattered."

    Witnesses said they presumed the looters were from among around 100 people who had been staging a protest rally at the local legislature where a new governor was being sworn in, Antara reported. It said security officers were sent to deal with the looting, and one military officer was hurt during the rally at the provincial assembly building.

    Violence [also] broke out on Wednesday in the North Sumatran town of Gabion, witnesses said, after a dispute over fishing rights. Some 500 fishermen went on the rampage in Gabion, near the port city of Belawan, burning trawlers, warehouses and an office as a dispute about large trawlers encroaching on their territory turned violent. After failing to get a satisfactory answer to their grievances from local politicians, the fishermen attacked a cooperative office which operated several of the trawlers.

    Indonesia's poverty rate may double

    Associated Press - June 22, 1998 (abridged)

    Christopher Torchia, Jakarta -- Indonesia's poverty rate may double, stripping at least 20 million people of their jobs, a World Bank official warned Monday in one of his bleakest assessments yet of the Asian nation's economic upheaval.

    The financial crisis "just does not seem to want to go away," said Dennis de Tray, the bank's director in Indonesia, adding that the bank has had trouble keeping pace with the turmoil. "The changes here have been completely unpredictable," de Tray told a news conference, referring to the unrest that led last month to the resignation of former President Suharto, Indonesia's leader for 32 years.

    De Tray spoke as the International Monetary Fund prepared to resume its $43 billion bailout package for Indonesia. The loans were suspended last month because of the political instability.

    About 28 million of Indonesia's 200 million people currently live in poverty and that figure could double, de Tray said. The mushrooming poverty will strip at least 20 million people of their jobs and unleash more ethnic trouble and common crime, he said.

    [The state news agency, Antara, reported on June 24, that the number of poor people had in fact declined this year. It quoted Ida Bagus Oka, minister for population and the National Family Planning Agency (BKKBN) as saying according to their data, the number of families in poverty dropped from 42.1% to 38.5%. When asked how the current economic crisis had affected this he said that BKKBN "still had no data" - James Balowski.]

    Accusations fly of "masterminded" riots

    Asiaweek - June 23, 1998

    Jose Manuel Tesoro, Jakarta -- The wealthy Chinese residential neighborhood of Pluit Timur emerged mostly unscathed from the May 13-15 Jakarta riots. Its residents want to keep it that way. On June 16, workers were binding long sticks of wood with barbed wire to form barricades. Across the eastern end of Pluit Timur's widest street, residents erected a wall of wire-ringed oil drums stacked almost two meters high. Behind the barricades and iron gates that now enclose the area sit stout Chinese youths and army soldiers on a more-or-less 24-hour watch. "Actually, it is safe," says one soldier, smiling behind strands of barbed wire. "We're just guarding."

    A month after mobs looted and burned large parts of Jakarta, the capital remains naggingly ill at ease. There are fears that the unrest is far from over. And there are sinister intimations that the previous disturbances were far from spontaneous. These worries were voiced publicly as high up as President B. J. Habibie, who told a gathering of high-ranking armed forces officers June 11 that they should "uncover the truth of suspicions that organized groups were seen provoking the masses to burn and loot." The day before, opposition leader Amien Rais said that he believed "there were people who masterminded the riots in Jakarta."

    Proving such suspicions is another matter. A 120-member team of volunteers is investigating dubious patterns in the May rioting. In a June 7 report, it summarizes eyewitness accounts of instigated rioting. For example, witnesses say they saw dozens of youths wearing high-school uniforms disembark from a truck near the Yogya Plaza department store in East Jakarta. Four men in black jackets were also seen in the group. Soon after the store was set alight, the youths left. Scores died in the fire. In other areas, people were seen egging on crowds to loot and burn.

    But most evidence is so far circumstantial. "We confess that it is very difficult to find proof," says Father Sandyawan Sumardi, secretary of the Volunteer Team for Humanity. To him, Indonesian society is shaped like a mountain, with its peak obscured by clouds and darkness. Those at the bottom see only the consequences of what goes on at the summit. The victims and witnesses he and his team speak to can thus provide only half the story. "The others, up there, are not our field," he says. "They are untouchable."

    He says the May riots followed patterns observed in the past. Among them: labor-related riots in Medan, North Sumatra, in April 1994 for which independent labor leader Muchtar Pakpahan was implicated and later jailed. Instigation and provocation has always been a tool, says Sandyawan, in inter-elite conflict, mostly within the military. But the victims are the same -- the urban poor and minorities. The technique dates back to the colonial era, when European overlords allowed or even encouraged Chinese massacres to control and divide populations. The nation has not completely relinquished that brutal legacy. "Violence is still legitimate," says historian Onghokham.

    Chaos is an especially dangerous weapon. It also hurts those who grasp it. One can only speculate at the aim of a mastermind, if there is one. Is it to level the economic differences between ethnic Chinese Indonesians and others? To create chaos as a pretext to enforce stability? No one has established any clear links between the May disturbances and powerful figures, inside or outside the military. "It has never been armed forces' strategy to politically engineer a situation at the expense of peace and people's welfare," says military chief Gen. Wiranto. He has ordered an investigation of the riots.

    Meantime, some are profiting from the anxiety. Chinese businessmen and residents have reportedly paid as much as 80 million rupiah ($5,500) for troops to protect their buildings and neighborhoods. In recent days, rumors multiplied that bused-in mobs would attack well-off Chinese areas in a "second wave" of riots.

    Labour issues

    More strikes break out in Indonesia

    Posted by Tapol, no source indicated -- June 24, 1998 (abridged)

    Martin McLaughlin -- Tens of thousands of Indonesian workers have joined in strikes and protests against the military-backed regime and the policies of crippling economic austerity imposed at the dictates of the International Monetary Fund and the US government.

    In Surabaya, the country's second largest city, 10,000 shoe factory workers tore down tree branches and built roadblocks on the second day of protests demanding pay increases. The workers marched on the regional parliament building. Soldiers lined the city's downtown streets but made no attempt to interfere with the protest.

    Surabaya has been paralyzed by a strike by dock workers at its port, Tanjung Perak. The 6,000 workers walked out on June 17 demanding that their basic wage be increased from 7,000 rupiah to 15,000 rupiah an hour (about US$1 an hour at current exchange rates).

    The east Java port is one of the Indonesia's busiest, handling over $12 billion in exports and imports last year. By the weekend, 49 ships were sitting idle at dockside waiting to be unloaded and another 170 stood in the harbor.

    Major strikes have broken out in the factory belt surrounding Jakarta, the capital city. In Karawang, 2,500 workers from P.T. Texmaco Perkasa Eugenering walked out demanding a wage raise, and improvements in overtime pay, annual holidays and food allowances.

    Most of the 1,500 workers at the P.T. Kukdong factory were also on strike. Their demands included a reduction in the taxes taken from their wage packets, more holiday money, and money for food and transportation.

    Another strike hit the P.T. Sandang Mutiara Era Mulia factory, where most of the 1,200 workers walked out Monday, June 22. They demanded a 30 percent wage increase, payment for overtime work and better food provisions.

    Workers also staged a strike at the government's main currency printing plant, protesting excessive overtime and demanding higher pay and benefits. The value of the Indonesian currency, the rupiah, has fallen from 2,400 to the US dollar to as low as 17,000 to the dollar in recent weeks, and the government has fueled the inflation by keeping the printing presses running.

    Human rights/law

    Freed political prisoners not immune to law

    Kompas - June 24, 1998 (abridged)

    Jakarta -- Minister of Justice Muladi reminds that the political detainees and prisoners who have been released should refrain from political actions which can disturb public security and order. In a state based on law, freed political detainees/prisoners are not immune to law and can be caught again if they violate the law.

    Muladi considers that in the context of the reformation, all must respect the rights of everybody and groups in Indonesia. "I remind all former political detainees and prisoners that they too must respect human rights and have a sense of national responsibility. They are not immune to law, and may be caught again. Nobody in Indonesia is immune against the law," stressed the minister.

    "Those already released should refrain from acts causing victims, thus rendering the government hesitant about releasing more detainees and prisoners. I myself have no regrets about freeing people. I am glad to do so. But those already released must have social responsibility for the sake of the public interest," said Muladi.

    According to the Minister of Justice, his side is cooperating with the Attorney General, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Minister, the Armed Forces Commander and the Minister of Home Affairs in evaluating amnesty and release of about 149 political prisoners and 56 political detainees. This concerns those not intending to change the state ideoogy, not involved in criminal matters, and not involved in the communist party coup attempt.

    Asled about a possible release of Jose Alexander Xanana Gusmao, the Muladi saw this in the context of a tripartite negotiation between Indonesia and Portugal under the auspices of the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

    More pressure needed on disappearances

    Human Rights Watch - June 22, 1998

    On May 1, General Wiranto, commander of the armed forces and Defense Minister, set up a Fact-Finding Team to look into the disappearances, after strong domestic and international pressure to address the issue. As of June, six of the resurfaced activists had given testimony to the military police, but they say thus far, there has been no follow-up.

    "Finding and prosecuting the people who abducted and tortured these activists is critical to redefining the army's role in post-Soeharto Indonesia," said Jones. "If nothing happens, it will confirm the fears of those who say that the fundamental power structure in Indonesia is unchanged. If those responsible are held accountable and the truth of who ordered these disappearances comes out, then there is real hope for human rights in Indonesia."

    The evidence of military involvement is strong, especially since in many of the cases, the kidnappers either picked their victims up from district military commands or took them from a kind of safehouse where they were held to police or military commands in Jakarta. The failure of the military fact- finding team to come up with any facts after almost two months suggests a deliberate decision to keep the truth hidden.

    The military's involvement is indicated by the following:

    Andi Arief, the twenty-eight-year-old head of Indonesia Student Solidarity for Democracy (SMID), was abducted from his sister's house in Bandar Lampung by two men in plainclothes on March 28 at 10:30 a.m. The men, who were not in uniform, showed no identification and produced no warrant, searched the shop, found Andi Arief, and took him away. Andi's family reported the abduction to the provincial police command, the city police command, and the regional military command; all said they had no role in the arrest. On March 31, the information officer of the Indonesian armed forces denied that the armed forces -- which in Indonesia include the police -- were detaining any of the missing. On April 3, he denied that the security forces were behind the disappearances. On April 16, the Jakarta military commander said he had ordered all his troops to help find the missing. On April 21, Andi Arief's parents received a call from national police headquarters in Jakarta informing them that their son was being held there. Two days later, they received a formal detention order by post, saying that Andi Arief was being held both as a suspect in a subversion case and as a witness in a subversion case against two students charged with using explosives in connection with a homemade bomb that went off prematurely in an apartment in the Tanah Tinggi area of Jakarta on January 18, 1998. The order was backdated to March 29. On April 22, the commander of the Indonesian police, Maj.Gen. (Pol) Dibyo Widodo, publicly denied any knowledge of Andi Arief's whereabouts, when in fact, Andi Arief had been detained for five days in the same complex where Widodo works. On April 26, national police headquarters issued a statement that Andi Arief had been in police custody since March.

    Two of those still missing, Yani Afri and Sonny, were picked up in April 1997 from the North Jakarta district military command where they had been taken after their arrest. They were taken directly from the district command to the safehouse where most of the activists have been held until their removal on March 12, 1998; the district commander must therefore have information on those responsible for the safehouse.

    Three of the resurfaced activists, Nezar Patria, Aan Rusdianto, and Mugianto, all SMID activists, were abducted by four masked men from their lodgings in Klender, East Jakarta, and taken first to the East Jakarta district military command and from there to the safehouse on March 13 and 14. They were then taken by their captors to the metropolitan Jakarta police command, where they were accused of belonging to a banned organization. They were blindfolded at the time they were turned over to the police. Again, both the police and the district military commander must have knowledge about the operation.

    Reports in the international press, based in part on interviews with the military and with the resurfaced activists, have pointed to a unit of Kopassus, the army special forces, as being responsible.

    According to the Jakarta-based organization Kontras (Commission for the Disappeared and Victims of Violence), those still "disappeared" are as follows:

    1-2. Yani Afri, known as "Rian," 27, a driver originally from the Tanjung Priok area of Jakarta, who worked with the faction of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) supporting Megawati Soekarnoputri, and Sonny, another PDI supporter. Both were arrested on April 26, 1997 as the parliamentary election campaign was heating up and initially taken to the North Jakarta district military command (KODIM) where they were held overnight. Yani Avri's mother went to the KODIM twice after learning her son had been taken there, but was told the second time that he had already been removed to another location. It turned out that both men had been taken to the same detention center in Jakarta where several of the activists who have since resurfaced were held. One of those activists, Pius Lustrilanang, who talked to Sonny and Rian while they were held there, reports that they were taken out from their cells on March 12, 1998. They have not been seen nor heard from since.

    3-5. Dedy Hamdun, a supporter of the United Development Party (PPP), was abducted during the May 1997 election campaign and held for three and a half months in the same place as Pius and the other activists. (He was already gone by the time Pius Lustrilanang arrived, but other detainees reported that he had been there.) According to them, Dedy was taken away from the detention center together with two men named Noval Alkatiri and Ismail. Both are still missing.

    6. Herman Hendrawan, a political science student from Airlangga University in Surabaya, was originally reported by the head of the East Java police on April 17 to have returned home, but to date, he remains missing. He disappeared with two other students, both of whom have since resurfaced, on March 12, 1998, after attending a press conference in the offices of the Indonesian Legal Aid Institute in Jakarta.

    7. Suyat, a university student from Solo who was active in the leftwing organization SMID, has been missing since February 12, 1998. According to Suyat's brother, five men who were not in uniform and showed no identification but said in response to a question that they were "officers" (petugas) came to the family's house in Gemolong, Sragen, Central Java at about 2:00 a.m. on February 12, looking for Suyat. The family said he was not at home, but the men entered anyway and began searching the house. According to an April 16 account in the Surabaya newspaper Jawa Pos, when the men could not find Suyat, they took away his brother, Suyatno. After being interrogated in an unknown place, Suyatno told human rights workers that he was blindfolded and tied up and then brought to the house of one of Suyat's friends in Karanganyar, outside Solo, then to the house of another friend in Kalijambe, Sragen, where Suyat was staying. The five men took Suyat away and dropped off Suyatno on the outskirts of Sumber village. No one has seen or heard from Suyat since.

    8. Petrus Bima Anugerah, known as Bimo, aged twenty-five, is a student at the Driyakara School of Philosophy in Jakarta and a member of the militant political organization, the People's Democratic Party (PRD). He has not been seen or heard from since March 31. His father officially reported him missing to the national police command on April 12.

    9. Mohamed Yusuf, twenty-eight, a schoolteacher and student in the pharmacy department of University of Indonesia, has been missing since May 1997 when he was campaigning for the United Development Party (PPP).

    10. Ucok Munandar Siahaan, twenty-two, a student activist from Perbanas, a banking association, disappeared after the riots in Jakarta on May 13-14, 1998. His mother reported that she knew he had not been injured in the riots because he called her afterwards, but he never returned home. While the case does not fall within the same pattern as the others, the failure to resolve the others makes the case of any missing student activist all the more worrisome.

    Politics

    Soeharto 'has means for political comeback'

    Jakarta Post - June 25, 1998

    Jakarta -- Political forces loyal to former president Soeharto have enormous financial resources at their disposal to engineer a legitimate comeback during the coming elections, politician Soegeng Sarjadi warned here yesterday.

    Soegeng, a former legislator for the ruling Golkar grouping who switched allegiance to the Indonesian Democratic Party in 1992, said the "old" pro- Soeharto forces wielded the necessary material means despite lacking political clout at present.

    He noted that Soeharto's Dakab foundation, set up mainly to finance Golkar social activities in July 1985, has assets estimated at Rp 836.2 billion. "A mere 5 percent interest on half of that sum per month is already a huge amount of money, and this can be used to buy votes (in the elections)," Soegeng told a discussion held by the Center for Information and Development Studies (CIDES). He advised public and proreform figures to remain vigilant. "The upcoming elections should never return the old political forces."

    Elections are expected to be held in the middle of next year after an extraordinary session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) this December sets a poll date. Talk has been rife this past week about the possibility that Soeharto, who resigned from the presidency on May 21, may be maneuvering to stage a comeback. ABRI subsequently warned that it would not allow the return of old political forces.

    Soeharto is technically still the chief patron of Golkar, the political organization which holds a majority in the House of Representatives and the People's Consultative Assembly. His position endows him with overriding power over other Golkar components, including the central executive board. Two of his children, Siti Hardijanti Rukmana and Bambang Trihatmodjo, are also executive members of Golkar.

    Both Soegang and fellow speaker Dawam Rahardjo noted the crucial role which could be played by the Armed Forces (ABRI) by not supporting parties, especially Golkar, which were likely favorably disposed to the former government. Both suggested the Armed Forces should be completely neutral in the political arena.

    Political scientist Dawam Rahardjo of CIDES ventured that the Armed Forces would stay clear of politics. "They (ABRI) are a state apparatus, so they should not involve themselves in politics," Dawam argued. He did not touch on whether it should also surrender its traditional sociopolitical role.

    Dawam said it may also be time to do away with the sole ideology principle for political parties. He suggested the government look into the possibility of revoking a provision in the political party law which stipulates that every party must be based on the state ideology of Pancasila. "Pancasila is a state ideology, not the principle of political parties."

    He said that political parties should be free to decide on their own identity and principles, and that the use of a sole ideological principle could also hamper freedom of thought and eventually democracy. "I believe that now is the end of the ideology era... We have to be more practical." He warned that the glorification of a single ideology would lead to a dominant faction, like Golkar in the past, manipulating it to further its own interests by professing to uphold its sanctity.

    [According to a June 27 Dow Jones Newswire report, Suharto's youngest son, Hutomo Mandala Putra ("Tommy") has rejected calls that he and three siblings resign from the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). The other three are eldest daughter Tutut Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, second son Bambang Trihatmojo and youngest daughter Siti Hendiyanti Prabowo. Six other Suharto relatives are also MPR members - James Balowski.]

    Habibie's core advisers are shaping him as president

    Far Eastern Economic Review - June 25, 1998

    By John McBeth and Michael Vatikiotis in Jakarta -- With the army's newfound support, President B.J. Habibie has a stronger chance of guiding his country along the tortuous course of political and economic reform. The following stories look at the challenges he faces, introduce the aides who have refurbished his image, and point to some powerful friends in Malaysia and Germany.

    They're the new president's spin-doctors -- a core group of aides who're forging B.J. Habibie's image as an accessible, warm and people-friendly leader, in stark contrast to the distant, paternalistic Suharto, his predecessor. More importantly, as Indonesia confronts difficult political and economic reform, these counsellors are quietly pushing an agenda that advances modernist Islamic goals and seeks a greater role for Indonesia's non-Javanese minority.

    Many of Habibie's aides have worked with him in his earlier incarnations as research and technology minister and vice- president. Some were part of a so- called globalization team formed in early 1997 to draw up a broad framework for reform that also appears to have laid the groundwork for Habibie's eventual rise to the presidency. Indeed, Habibie supporters believe his ascendancy as vice-president -- and subsequently as president -- was no lucky flash in the pan. Instead, they had little doubt that their man was being groomed by Suharto to be his deputy and possible successor.

    Although he has added cabinet ministers and other heavyweight aides to his coterie of advisers, Habibie continues to meet the old team regularly. "They're sort of like his political managers," notes a Jakarta-based analyst. "Before, he used to run around doing his own thing, but now he seems to be taking advice."

    Given Habibie's wobbly political status, however, his advisers may need to do some nimble footwork in the future: Habibie has scheduled presidential elections for December next year -- but has said publicly that he won't be a candidate. What might happen to the team in that event is still an unknown: Most of Habibie's aides themselves appear uncertain about what the longer- term future holds.

    For the moment, though, their ability to push through change has been greatly enhanced by Habibie's promotion. Notes a senior Western diplomat: "Before, it was a kitchen cabinet that had no kitchen. Now they really seem to have lucked out."

    Although overtaken in importance for the moment by Indonesia's economic emergency, the team's past agenda, which evolved from private discussions between Suharto and Habibie, still holds good. The agenda aimed, among other things, to promote decentralization and reform, guard the country's interests in an era of globalization, and improve links between small enterprises run by indigenous businessmen and large ones, which are usually Chinese-owned.

    Habibie assembled the 70-member globalization team on instructions from then- President Suharto. An unusual collection of Muslim activists, political scientists, retired generals, businessmen, economists and diplomats, the group included some high-profile figures who later joined President Habibie's cabinet. Among the cabinet choices are Tanri Abeng, a Bakrie Group executive who now holds the portfolio for state enterprises, and Adi Sasono, secretary- general of the Indonesian Association of Muslim Intellectuals, known as ICMI, who oversees state cooperatives. Many others remain for the time being in the vice-president's office.

    Sasono is one of several aides drawn from ICMI, a controversial, Habibie -led organization founded in 1990 to provide a new generation of Indonesian Muslims with a channel into government. Under Suharto, that turned out to be a forlorn hope; the former president was suspicious of ICMI's diverse membership and the military had reservations about its radical tendencies. Under Habibie, the group now has an opportunity to make a difference.

    Many ICMI members share family ties with the old Masyumi Party, which won nearly half the seats in the 1955 general elections. Masyumi represented a modernist strain of Islam: It was nationalist and democratic, but also attracted many non-Javanese intellectuals. The party was suppressed by former President Sukarno and wasn't revived by Suharto, his successor. Its spirit has nonetheless lived on through the urban-based organization Muhammadiyah, and now ICMI.

    This suggests that beneath ICMI's somewhat disturbing rhetoric is a push for an ethnic, rather than religious, distribution of power, which rejects Suharto's emphasis on Javanese culture. Habibie's advisers reflect such thinking. "ICMI is Masyumi and Masyumi represents the struggle of the non- Javanese elite," says Nasir Tamara, senior editor of Republika, a newspaper established by ICMI.

    When Habibie became vice-president in March, Lt.-Gen. Zein Maulani, now a senior aide to the president, said "people see Habibie as capable of uniting the country in a more meaningful way" because he comes from South Sulawesi, not Java. (The majority Javanese have been politically dominant in Indonesia since its independence, a fact that has created resentment in other parts of the country.)

    Maulani, as well as Lt.-Gen. Sintong Panjaitan, another key Habibie aide, have the sort of diverse backgrounds that typify the new president's advisory circle. Born in the South Kalimantan river-town of Marabahan, Maulani is the highest-ranking Dayak to serve in the Indonesian military. For his part, Sintong is a Sumatran Christian, whose roller-coaster military career has included leading a brilliant anti-hijack operation in Bangkok in 1981.

    Contrary to many opinions, Habibie advisers insist that their man had been Suharto's first choice for vice-president in 1993, even though military pressure forced him to appoint Gen. Try Sutrisno instead. Over the next five years, Try was given little to do other than oversee development projects and act as a ministerial coordinator. By 1997, there was little doubt among Habibie's aides that he would be Try's successor.

    "We thought from the start that the globalization team was really for Habibie's vice-presidency," notes Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a Habibie adviser. "We prepared briefs for him on everything -- on the political situation, on the economy, on reforms, on international issues." Adds Jimly Asshiddiqie, another long-time aide: "It was a mission given by Suharto to propose basic policies, not only in the general formulation of state guidelines, but also in reform in various fields. The initiatives not only came from Suharto, but from Habibie as well."

    Yet even as early as November, Maulani predicted in a conversation with the REVIEW that Habibie would be the next vice-president. But it was to be weeks later that the ruling Golkar party disclosed Suharto wanted as his deputy someone with an intimate knowledge of science, technology and developing industries. Much to the consternation of the market, that pointed to only one contender: Habibie .

    At the time, many Habibie supporters -- and possibly even the man himself -- appear to have been convinced that Suharto would step down in 2000, two years into his seventh term. But the economic crisis changed everything. Instead of casting his net wide for advisers, Suharto bitterly disappointed ICMI by circling the wagons following his re-election and leaving many of Habibie's allies out of his "crony cabinet." For Habibie supporters, the last straw must have been to hear Suharto voicing a lack of faith, just before he resigned, in their man's ability to be president.

    Habibie, however, believes he was destined for the job. During a recent lunch with Indonesian journalists, he said that in 1974, when he returned from Germany to launch Indonesia into the technological age, Suharto mentioned the possibility that Habibie might one day become president. "If God wants it," he quoted Suharto as saying, "you will accompany me in bringing this country into the next century." As it stands now, it is likely to be a wholly different leadership at the helm in 2000 -- Habibie's advisers undoubtedly hope they will be a part of it.

    PDI's survey saysMegawati favored as the next president

    Jakarta Post - June 25, 1998

    Jakarta -- Megawati Soekarnoputri tops the list by a big margin in a nationwide survey asking people about who they would like to be president. The survey, organized by the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI)'s camp loyal to Megawati, was advertised in various local newspapers last week.

    A total of 545 people had responded by Tuesday, answering a simple question, "Who do you want to be the president?" Kwik Kian Gie, head of PDI's Research and Development Department, said 393 respondents voted for Megawati.

    Former vice president Try Sutrisno followed with 56, while Amien Rais, the chairman of Muhammadiyah who was most vocal in the campaign to bring president Soeharto's resignation, tallied 47 votes. President B.J. Habibie and Yogyakarta's king Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X followed next with 10 votes each.

    Four respondents voted for former Jakarta governor Ali Sadikin, while Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto and politician Sri Bintang Pamungkas received three votes each. Megawati's brother Guntur Soekarnoputra, former Armed Forces Chief Gen. (ret) M. Yusuf, Jakarta Military Chief Maj. Gen. Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin and Kwik Kian Gie each won two votes. Soeharto's eldest daughter Siti Hardijanti Rukmana Armed Forces Chief for Sociopolitical Affairs Lt. Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and jailed chairman of the outlawed Democratic People's Party (PRD) Budiman Sudjatmiko were among 11 public figures who received one vote each.

    The survey laid out five criteria for the presidential candidate: must be adored by the people; free from corruption, collusion and nepotism; a commitment to serve the people; proven statesmanship; of strong personality, integrity and credibility. Kwik said the survey was still continuing.

    Military: stop protracted polemics

    Kompas - June 22, 1998 (abridged)

    Malang -- The Armed Forces Socio-political Chief-of-Staff, Lt. Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said that political and elite circles embroiled in protracted polemics, should feel ashamed before the common people.

    "In this crisis situation, the common folk remain willing to remain patient. The reformation requires patience, controlled phasing, and priorities. It is not like turning your hand," he said in a seminar titled "Nationalism in the Third Millenium" at the Malang educational faculty (IKIP) on Saturday (20/6). The general said that political and economic dynamics in reponse to the reformation, had given rise to various phenomena, which indicated an excess of zeal and exaggeration which could lead to national disintegration.

    How easily do we act anarchistically. Perpetrating acts which clearly do not reflect our character and identity as a well- mannered natiom, respecting law and other people, and upholding religious values. Various incidents which have happened, illustrate a thinning of wisdom in facing the challenge of the future. "To get out of the difficulties quickly, is exactly why we must not lose our national identity," he said.

    He stressed that this situation should not be worsened by incitement and emotional acts, which in fact are done by those with certain intentions, merely for group interests, with no thought for the greater national interest.

    The question is whether we can come out of this crisis or transitional situation without sacrificing our national identity. The experience of other nations is that some succeed in doing so, while others do not.

    Round two: Suharto's comeback?

    Digest 66 - June 22, 1998

    Gerry van Klinken -- Mr Suharto's daughter Tutut told a journalist recently that after resigning as president her father was now resting at home. "If there are no visitors, he reads the newspaper or watches television with his grandchildren", she said. [optional: His lawyer Mr Aziz Balhmar says: "He now just wants to grow close to God".] Suharto an old pensioner who has left politics behind? Pull the other leg, many Indonesian newspapers are saying.

    During 32 years in power, Mr Suharto built a web of elite connections whose strands all ran towards where he sat, spider- like, in the middle. He resigned from the presidency on 21 May. He did not resign from the web. Nor did he resign from a key position in the ruling party Golkar. Reports say that, apart from minding his grandchildren, he has visited armed forces headquarters several times since his resignation.

    In a sense, all those who took over from Suharto are the president's men. But now that he is gone, some feel the loss more acutely than others. Curiously, armed forces commander General Wiranto is beginning to look like the conservative, while President Habibie looks like the reformer.

    Mr Habibie is meeting all kinds of people and frantically making concessions in order to build a constituency of his own, and not without success. Wiranto, meanwhile, appears anxious to slow the pace of change. He is also acting on his promise to protect Mr Suharto from popular demands for an accounting.

    Some who have talked with army officers recently say some are growling about "traitors", by whom they mean all those who conspired to bring down Suharto.

    They dislike the concessions Habibie has made - the release of political prisoners, the trial of policemen for shooting some students, the easing of labour and press restrictions, the proliferation of political parties, the Islamic demands for justice over the 1984 army massacre at Tanjung Priok. It is not yet clear what they think of Habibie's latest offer on East Timor.

    An editorial in Media Indonesia, part-owned by Mr Suharto's son Bambang, on 19 June expressed the hope that Habibie's government was "at last" realising that making allies with "the rabble of the streets" would get the country nowhere.

    A conservative backlash is not just talk. An emerging defensive strategy is creating a de facto alliance between Suharto and the armed forces. It aims, at the very least, to take the heat off both parties for abuses committed during the Suharto era.

    After Lt-Gen Prabowo, Mr Suharto's son-in-law, accepted the order to relinquish active command of troops and shift to the staff college, moves to name him over the shooting of students at the Trisakti University appear to have been quietly dropped.

    Mysterious, well-made banners appeared on Jakarta streets on Friday [19 June] warning people to stop criticising Suharto or risk bloodshed.

    Meanwhile reformer Amien Rais has been met with counter- demonstrations in several country towns that are widely suspected of being orchestrated by the military.

    On Wednesday [17 June], Attorney General Soedjono was suddenly replaced by a soldier on active service, Maj-Gen Mohammed Ghalib. Most newspapers interpreted the replacement as a conservative move. Soedjono had been vigorous in pursuit of the Suharto family wealth. He also promoted the release of more political prisoners, and had proposed that the police, in Indonesia part of the armed forces, should regain their independence. Ghalib has already dampened expectations of speedy action on Suharto's wealth.

    That is not all. Suharto loyalists have headed an internal struggle within the state political party Golkar that may well see the removal from its chair of Harmoko, among the first within government to move against Suharto on 18 May. Not only does Suharto remain chairman of Golkar's Guidance Council, his daughter Tutut and son Bambang are actively exercising the top executive positions they hold in the party.

    Not that Suharto wants to be reelected as president. General Wiranto has repeatedly denied he would back a Suharto return to the palace. But the army seems to be backing Suharto's determination to kill off the increasingly voluble public condemnation of the former president.

    A special session of the People's Assembly (MPR) coming up in December could turn nasty for Mr Suharto if it demands an accounting of his time in power. In the absence of fresh elections, most Assembly delegates will be from Golkar. So the way to control the People's Assembly is to control Golkar.

    For a while it looked as if Reformasi would sweep all before it. Now the old guard is striking back. They probably will be unable to restore the New Order in all its rigidity. Their agenda is more limited: damage control rather than total victory. In any case, it is difficult to imagine how they can undo the liberalisation of recent weeks without shedding more blood than anyone cares to stomach. Habibie's Islamic support alone may already be too large to trifle with. However, political struggle has obviously re-emerged in Jakarta.

    Arms/armed forces

    Military vows to foil labor demonstrations

    Jakarta Post - June 23, 1998

    Jakarta -- Jakarta Military Commander Maj. Gen. Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin said yesterday that his forces would clamp down hard on any workers staging street demonstrations.

    Although he made no direct reference to the planned march by the Indonesian Prosperous Labor Union (SBSI) tomorrow, Sjafrie said the military would foil labor protests and strikes that were politically motivated. "I have warned them several times already. If they continue, I will cripple them. Just wait and see," he told reporters.

    Sjafrie said that 25,000 military personnel had been deployed in Jakarta to ensure public safety. "Anyone who wishes to disrupt security will confront my troops. I have given them orders to warn the protesters first, and then cripple them if they have to," he said.

    Security in Jakarta has been noticeably strengthened since the weekend, with armed soldiers guarding government offices and major intersections. On Sunday, organizers of a massive labor rally decided to call off the event off after failing to secure the use of the Salemba campus from the University of Indonesia administrators.

    SBSI chairman Muchtar Pakpahan remained defiant yesterday, saying that he would go ahead with his plan to mobilize 10,000 workers onto the streets in Jakarta tomorrow to press ahead with his demands for President B.J. Habibie to resign.

    Pakpahan, who Habibie released from prison last month after being convicted of organizing a riotous labor protest in 1994, said he had scaled down the size of the crowd from the 100,000 originally planned due to "recent developments".

    He promised a "peaceful orderly and non-violent" demonstration, which he said was intended to send signals to Habibie and House Speaker Harmoko to convene an extraordinary session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) as soon as possible to hand over power to a transitional government.

    Asked about the possibility of violence breaking out Pakpahan said: "Experience has shown that if the security forces want a street demonstration to be peaceful, it will be peaceful." "I appeal to the military to secure the safety of demonstrators," he added. Pakpahan did not disclose the route which the protesters would take, but said the National Monument (Monas) park and the House of Representatives building would likely be included in the itinerary.

    Pakpahan underscored the decision of an SBSI working conference last week to hold protests until Habibie resigns or holds a national reconciliation meeting. A national reconciliation gathering, he said, would be intended to bring peace to the nation It should involve all components of the nation; reform leaders, the government, students, the Armed Forces and other major organizations.

    He suggested the inclusion of people who were victims of the politics of the old New Order of former president Soeharto. In addition to himself, Pakpahan said these were Sri Bintang Pamungkas, Budiman Sudjatmiko, Nur Hidayat, Jose Alexandre "Xanana Gusmao", Ali Sadikin, S.A.E Nababan, Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati Soekarnoputri.

    Such a meeting would precede an MPR extraordinary session which would elect a transitional president to organize general elections by June 1999 at the latest Pakpahan said.

    "If our proposal is ignored we will continue and escalate our protests until Prof. Dr. B.J. Habibie resigns from the presidency. The people will then form a Reform MPR which will elect a transitional government," Pakpahan said. "To the people, we apologize if their lives are disrupted (by our action). Trust us that we're doing this for the sake of the unity of the republic... and for the welfare and prosperity of the people, " he said.

    [On June 25, Sjafrie was replaced by Maj. Gen. Djadja Soeparman, a military commander in East Java and he will now take the post of adviser on national affairs to the armed forces chief of staff. Sjafrie was in command when police shot four students at the Trisakti university on May 12 - James Balowski.]

    Economy and investment

    Forest funds seized from Suharto-linked firms

    Straits Times - June 25, 1998

    Jakarta -- Indonesia's government has confiscated millions of dollars of reforestation funds from firms associated with former President Suharto, a senior minister said yesterday. Forestry and Plantations Minister Muslimin Nasution said the funds were retrieved after an investigation into the way the previous administration had re-routed money into Suharto-linked firms.

    He said a probe failed to find incidents of diversion of funds, and "we have already been able to retrieve and suspend the ones that were not yet used".

    There has been mounting pressure for the government to investigate the wealth of Mr Suharto and his family, who have been accused of enriching themselves during his 32-year rule. Mr Nasution said among the funds retrieved was 80 billion rupiah (S$10 million) in credit awarded to Mr Suharto's grandson, Mr Ari Sigit, for a fertilising project.

    A 200-billion rupiah reforestation fund that was to be awarded to a firm owned by timber tycoon Muhammad "Bob" Hasan, Mr Suharto's golfing buddy, had also been withheld.

    [According to a June 25 report by Reuters, Indonesia and the IMF have agreed on internationally accepted audits of the financial accounts of the state oil firm, Pertamina, the electricity utility, PLN and state commodities regulator, Bulog - James Balowski.]

    IMF agreement elicits hollow applause

    Dow Jones Newswires - June 25, 1998

    Grainne Mccarthy, Jakarta -- Indonesia's fourth agreement with the International Monetary Fund was greeted with resounding silence in financial markets Thursday, with many analysts dismissing its budgetary targets as still far too unrealistic.

    And just as the three previous IMF agreements with former President Suharto went by the wayside, economists say this one will carry little clout unless Indonesia's recently-installed President B.J. Habibie adopts real political reform and holds new elections.

    The IMF efforts to rescue the economy won't bear fruit until political confidence returns and stems the capital flight -- much of it from the ethnic Chinese community -- which has resulted from recent political upheavals. "This is as much a political issue as it is an economic one at this juncture," said Geoffrey Barker, chief economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Hong Kong. "Obviously it's good news to a point that the IMF has reached a deal, but that's not the main event," he added. "As far as the rupiah is concerned, there's still fears of capital flight while there's uncertainty on the political front," Barker said. "This makes it so difficult to make a forecast based on economic fundamentals."

    The Indonesian government signed a new letter of intent with the IMF late Wednesday, which should clear the way for a $1 billion installment of the IMF's $10 billion standby loan around mid- July. The loan is part of an overall IMF-led $43 billion assistance program for Indonesia.

    The agreement, unveiled Thursday, forecasts the embattled rupiah (IDR) at IDR10,000 to the US dollar in the fourth quarter of the year and predicts the economy will contract by "more than" 10% in the fiscal year that ends March 31, 1999. It forecasts a budget deficit of 8.5% of gross domestic product for fiscal 1998/99, the lion's share of which will be financed by international lending.

    "This is positive in that it puts down some assessment of where the economy is going and that it is far worse than previously thought," said Song Seng Wun, regional economist for G.K. Goh Securities in Singapore. "But they're also making the assumption that things will look better down the road. Maybe (the IMF) is living in a dream world." "If they say the economy is contracting by 10%, we can just double that up and keep going," Song said. "With that sort of scenario, revenues are shot to bits," he said, adding that a contraction of well above 20% would be far closer to the mark.

    Indeed most economists dismiss the IMF's latest macroeconomic targets as still wildly optimistic -- although more realistic than those last forecast in March, when the IMF predicted only a 5% contraction in the economy this year. Meanwhile, the chances of the rupiah strengthening to a level approaching IDR10,000 to the dollar -- from current levels around IDR14,700 per dollar -- are seen as woefully slim.

    "I think the rupiah forecast is wishful thinking and I think that it's going to extremely difficult to bring inflation under control," said Barker. "It's pretty easy to pencil in a 20% contraction and pretty difficult to see why it will be better next year," he said. "At the moment, the leaky ship has been kept afloat by the printing press, then when you stop that, what will happen?"

    One of the key concerns of the IMF has been to control the alarming rise in money supply, and ballooning inflation. From an annual 49% in May, inflation for the calender year is expected to soar to 80%, while the government pledged to keep it below 50% for the fiscal year. IMF director for Asia and Pacific Affairs Hubert Neiss said Thursday that the central bank will stop printing money and won't extend liquidity credits. The government is also moving to boost the independence of the central bank, while Bank Indonesia will begin to auction its central bank paper -- SBI notes -- beginning in July.

    All this should, in theory, please the market -- and hence boost the currency. But in practice, economists say, the political instability and uncertainty means investors will continue to keep their funds firmly outside the country. "The good news is that they moved quite fast on the package," said Neil Saker, head of regional economic research at Socgen Crosby in Singapore. "The problem is Indonesia is suffering from a loss in confidence. That takes ages to restore."

    The acceleration of the economic crisis in Indonesia has led to a steady flight of capital offshore, which was only accelerated by the riots which rocked much of Indonesia last month and culminated in the resignation of Suharto, who ruled the country for 32 years. The ethnic Chinese minority, resented for their relative wealth, was heavily targeted during the riots that killed as many as 1200 people in Jakarta and left wide swaths of damage in other Indonesian cities.

    "The nuts and bolts of the economy -- the Chinese community -- aren't in the country and their capital isn't in the country," said Song of G.K. Goh. "The political environment is very difficult for us to speculate on. I think we can give Habibie almost full marks for having pulled things together in an orderly manner so far, but the political picture is still vague."

    Despite the skepticism, economists note that the IMF -- four agreements later -- has gone further down the road of accepting the unique nature and problems of the Indonesian economy. The IMF agreed that subsides for key fuels, electricity and essential foodstuffs must remain in place and will cost 6% of overall 1998/99 GDP -- about four percentage points higher than envisaged in April. The IMF has also agreed to government earmarking 7.5% of GDP for social safety net programs in this, the world's fourth most-populous country. "In that degree, it's partly positive: at least the IMF recognizes the social responsibility," said Song.

    The agreement with the IMF noted that further increases in prices of staple foods and fuels would exacerbate the impact of the crisis on the poor and will have to be delayed until the economy has begun to improve. "When you're looking at an economy contracting by 20% and unemployment increasing by 20-40 million people, they really didn't have any choice on subsidies," Song added.

    The removal of some subsidies on electricity and fuel last month was thought to have been one of the main reasons behind the riots and protests. Fuel prices jumped up to 70% as the subsidies disappeared. Government ministers now say removing subsidies this year is virtually impossible due to the volatile economic conditions. "I think (the IMF) made a mistake in the first instance by trying to impose wholesale reform on the Indonesian economy," said Barker, of Kleinwort Benson. "There was a much broader and deeper problem then they realized, but they're realizing it now."

    [According to the June 26 Financial Times, the IMF has said an additional US$4-6 billion was needed to repair Indonesia's economy and avoid further social unrest. On June 23, AP reported that several dozen protesters demonstrated outside the US Embassy on June 23, accusing the US of trying to delay the resumption of aid. Protesters said the US was interfering in Indonesia's internal affairs and held up banners such as "US is a great liar" - James Balowski.]


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