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ASIET NetNews Number 9 - March 9-15, 1998
East TimorMore students, lecturers join rallies Students clash with security forces Students invade Suharto's hometown Students protest Suharto
Political/economic crisisTimorese leaders comment on Suharto Six East Timorese students go on trial
Environment/land disputesIMF softens line Divided they stand Who's to blame for mess in Indonesia? Economic reforms - what has been
Human rights/lawUN body urges global fight against fires
Arms/armed forcesPolice urged to probe disappearances Nine pro-democracy activists arrested
International relationsIndonesia's killers Voice of moderation
PoliticsBrigadier warns of risks as army aids Jakarta
Suharto's new cabinet is set back No dissent, no rivals Business as usual
Suharto granted increased security powers
| Democratic struggle |
Jakarta -- On-campus rallies calling for reform and protesting against the skyrocketing prices of basic commodities gathered steam yesterday as tens of thousands of students and lecturers from nearly 40 universities took part.
At least two minor incidents were recorded in East Java's capital of Surabaya and in Jakarta -yesterday, but the protests in Yogyakarta, Bandung, Surakarta, Semarang, Malang, Purwokerto, Ujungpandang and Medan ended peacefully. No arrests were reported.
About 20,000 students from at least 10 universities in Yogyakarta gathered on the grounds of Gadjah Mada University (UGM) for a freespeech forum which featured numerous noted intellectuals.
Among them were self-styled presidential candidate Amien Rais, senior anthropologist Prof. T. Jacob, Prof. Koento Wibisono Siswomihardjo, political observers Riswandha Ismawan and Afan Gaffar and psychologist Djamalludin Ancok.
Controversial chairman of the Surakarta branch of the United Development Party (PPP) Moedrick Sangidoe was also seen at the gathering.
The "sea of human beings" as one witness described the crowd that flocked to the nation's oldest university, comprised students and lecturers of other universities in the so-called "student town."
They included, among others, the Indonesian Islamic University (UII) and the state-run Teachers Training Institute (IKIP) Karangmalang, Yogyakarta.
Many passersby also joined the gathering which was overseen by hundreds of fully armed riot police and soldiers. Scores of plainclothes security officers also mingled with the crowd.
During the gathering, Amien Rais who is also chairman of the 28- million-strong Muhammadiyah Moslem organization, renewed his warning that the newly endorsed government had six months to fix the country's crisis.
"If they fail to do so in six months, then its power mandate should be returned to the People's Consultative Assembly. It will later hold an extraordinary session to elect a new national leader," Amien said to thunderous applause.
"Why six months? Because we could already judge whether the government is serious about handling the crisis in this period." The crowd dispersed in peace.
In Surabaya, seven students and a police officer sustained minor injuries during a brief clash.
Scores of riot police beat students with rattan sticks to prevent about 5,000 people from marching onto the streets.
East Surabaya Police chief Lt. Col. Oegroseno said he regretted the incident. "I guarantee nobody will be arrested," he said.
The students of eight universities gathered on the Surabaya Institute of Technology campus to stage a free-speech forum before marching to Airlangga University, which is eight kilometers away.
Seven students of Airlangga University ended their hunger strike yesterday due to their weakened physical condition. They began their hunger strike a week ago.
In Jakarta, violence broke out when more than 500 protesting students from the Indonesian Social and Political Science Institute (IISIP) tried to march off their campus.
They were prevented from doing so by more than a score of riot police who stood at the campus' main entrance. Some students threw stones at the police but no injuries were reported.
The students later continued their protest during a freespeech forum, voicing harsh words and condemning the government over its handling of the crisis.
Protests in Jakarta were also held at the Indonesian Christian University, the Nasional University and later in the University of Indonesia in the evening.
Similar protests also continued at the Bogor Institute of Agriculture in the West Java town of Bogor, and at three universities in Bandung -- the Bandung Institute of Technology, Padjadjaran University and IKIP Bandung.
There were also student protests at four universities in North Sumatra's capital of Medan. In Central Java, hundreds of students staged protest at Surakarta's Sebelas Maret University, hundreds of others at the Purwokerto's Soedirman University, and more at the Diponegoro University in Semarang.
Two similar protests were also staged by hundreds of students from Malang's Brawijaya University and IKIP Malang in East Java. The two protests were attended by their rectors who also addressed students during the free-speech forums.
Protests in North Sumatra's capital of Medan also continued yesterday at Sumatra Utara University, IKIP Medan Catholic University, and HKBP Nomensen University.
In South Sulawesi's capital of Ujungpandang, hundreds of students of the Indonesian Moslem University (UMI), Paulus Teachers Training University (UKIP), and University of '45 also staged similar protests.
Surabaya -- Some 400 students clashed with security forces which prevented them from marching to another university today, witnesses said.
Anti-riot police and soldiers beat the students with clubs and at least one was rushed to hospital bleeding from the head.
The students from at least four universities in the East Java province capital of Surabaya, had gathered at the Surabaya Institute of Technology, wearing jackets representing their institutions.
They planned to march to the state Airlangga University but were blocked by security forces, including more than 100 police backed by marines and soldiers.
The students dispersed after the clashes and there were no reports of arrests.
Two helicopters hovered above the university, while security forces remained on guard around the campus, a witness said.
Joseph Coleman, Yogyakarta -- About 10,000 students protested in President Suharto's hometown today, demanding Asia's longest- serving leader quit just as he was sworn-in for another five years in power.
In a major display of defiance, the students took to streets around the campus of Gadjah Mada University, one of Indonesia's largest and oldest colleges.
"Bring down prices, bring down Suharto!" the students chanted as they walked through the university campus.
Trucks and jeeps drove slowly at the front of the parade. Protest organizers shouted through bullhorns, urging undergraduates to join their ranks.
While some demonstrators sang nationalist songs or clapped, most waved small red and white Indonesia flags, saying they wanted Suharto to resign for the good of the world's fourth most- populous nation, which is facing its worst economic crisis in 30 years.
Unemployment has soared and prices are spiralling upwards as the currency, the rupiah, plunges amid a crisis of confidence in financial markets.
A $43 billion bailout by the International Monetary Fund has failed to stem the slide. Foreign lenders and other governments fear Suharto is backsliding on commitments to reform the battered economy.
"We reject Suharto. We need the government to reform politics and economics. It's now or never," said Faisal Rizal, 23.
Student protests have been building across Indonesia over the past month as a 1,000-members assembly met in Jakarta, 260 miles to the west.
On Tuesday the body, filled with Suharto supporters, family members and associates, unanimously re-elected him after 32 unbroken years in power. No other candidates were recognized.
Suharto, who was born in a small village near Yogyakarta in 1921, took the oath of office before the assembly today.
"I don't trust the assembly anymore. They lie to us," said Nurhadi, a 24-year-old protest organizer. "They keep protecting Suharto."
Mass rallies have been banned for several weeks. However, police and the army have tolerated peaceful student protests as long as they remain on campus. Only about 50 police were on hand to watch over today's massive crowd. "Suharto should step down because he's too old and can't think clearly," one banner read.
"This is a peaceful demonstration. We don't want any riots, we don't want any deaths," said Nurhadi.
Jakarta -- Thousands of Indonesian students greeted President Suharto's re-appointment as president with jhoisy but peaceful demonstrations across the country.
Tight security was in force at many of the campuses, but troops and riot police did not intervene as the authorities maintained their tolerance of demonstrations within university grounds.
At the private National Development University here, some 200 students protested against Suharto's return to office, a university staff member said.
At the Christian University more than 100 students were marching around their eastern Jakarta campus carrying a chair draped with a red cloth and inscribed with the slogan: 'The result of manipulation, protest is forbidden.'
More than 1,000 students rallied peacefully in front of the library of the state Teachers' University here, a witness said.
In the East Java province capital, Surabaya, some 1,000 students rallied at the state Airlangga University campus to express concern over economic and political conditions, a witness said. The students listened to speeches by several of their lecturers. Four truckloads of anti-riot police backed by soldiers were guarding the campus's three main gates.
Rallies also took place on the campuses of the Surabaya Institute of Technology and the 17 August University which also included teachers and university staff, residents said.
In the West Sumatra province capital of Padang, more than 1,000 Bung Hatta University students rallied for about two hours, demanding reforms and protesting Suharto's re-appointment, a resident said. In a statement read at the rally, they delivered a no-confidence motion against the legislatures, including the MPR, saying 'they have to change their function' (because) they were 'irresponsive to the people's aspirations'. 'Is this a republic or a kingdom?' one poster said.
More than 1,000 students at the Islamic University of Bandung joined forces with students of the University of Pasundan in the West Java capital of Bandung and rallied on a street in front of the univesity to protest Suharto's re-appointment and call for reforms, a security guard said. A rally was also held at the state Bandung Institute of Technology.
| East Timor |
Sydney -- Timorese leaders in Australia described the re-election of Suharto on Tuesday for the Indonesian presidency as a structural and political weakness in the Southeast Asian nation that it would only be solved if the vice-president Habibie, could guarantee a proper transition in the post-Suharto era.
The comments to Lusa followed the re-election of Suharto for his seventh mandate as head of state of Indonesia.
The spokesman for the East Timor Relief Association, Agio Pereira, said that the expected re-election of Suharto showed above all the relative weakness of the Indonesian democratic forces.
He added that despite the current economic and social crisis in Indonesia, no real attempts had emerged to seek an alternative to Suharto. The head of Timorese Democratic Union (UDT), Joao Carrascalao, said that the re-election of Suharto was not a surprise, stressing instead the importance of the appointment of a vice-president who favours the transition to democracy. For Carrascalao, the appointment of Habibie might represent an important step in the path to democracy.
Dili -- Six students of the University of East Timor have gone on trial on charges of 'torturing' three members of the armed forces. The trial commenced on 11 February.
The six [all political science students] are: Francisco de Deus, 20; Domingos da Silva, 25; Silveiro Baptista Ximenes, 23; Juvinal dos Santos Moniz, 22; Bernardino Simao, 23 and; Vicente Marquez da Crus, 21.
The six defendants are assisted by two lawyers from Yayasan HAK, Aniceto Guterres Lopes and Vinsensius Daton Igon.
The opening session of the trial was attended by a large number of UNTIM students, causing the security forces to put on extra personnel. The roads leading to the courthouse were closed to all vehicles, including motorbikes.
The indictment alleged that the six men had inflicted bodily harm on three soldiers at around 8 am on 14 November. The incident occurred outside the Library on Jalan Kaikoli, western Dili. The soldiers were engaged in a surveillance operation in the area near Vila-Verde district and were walking from the Company C barracks towards the Dili Cathedral. As they approached the library, they saw a large crowd of students standing near the building. Suddenly, according to the indictment, the three soldiers were set upon by the students. A soldier named Suharto was attacked and beaten by one of the defendants while another dragged him inside the library, locking the door, preventing his two colleagues from coming to his aid. Outside the two other soldiers were assaulted as they tried to get into the library. All three soldiers suffered serious injuries, the prosecutor claimed.
They are all being charged under Article 170, para (2), sub para (1) of the Criminal Code, for which the maximum penalty is five years.
| Political/economic crisis |
Jennifer Hewett, Washington -- The International Monetary Fund, responding to criticism of its tough approach to Indonesia, has indicated it is willing to be more flexible in negotiating changes to the country's economic reform program.
The IMF's deputy managing director, Mr Stanley Fischer, said the 182-country organisation was "deeply mindful... of the events taking place in Indonesia", and suggested "there is room for flexibility" in the IMF's demands.
However, Mr Fischer emphasised that the Indonesian Government would first have to move ahead with many of the crucial reforms the fund had demanded.
If Jakarta took steps to meet the preconditions for currency boards - including banking reforms and other measures to restore market confidence - it was possible such an arrangement could be created, he said. Whether it could be created within six months would depend upon how rapidly Indonesia made the necessary economic decisions, he said.
"We haven't changed our view. If the preconditions are met, the currency board could go forward.
"If the decisions [on reform] were made, then you could begin to see the problems being dealt with and the preconditions being met."
Handling the standoff between the IMF and the Soeharto Government is one of the difficult issues facing the fund, which has suspended the next planned instalment of assistance originally due next Sunday.
The fund does not want to undermine its own credibility by allowing the Indonesian Government to bypass its demands.
However, it also wants to ensure that Indonesia does not lapse into financial and social chaos, possibly unravelling rescue packages throughout the region.
The currency board has been a particular sticking point, with the IMF vehemently opposed to its operation in present circumstances and complaining that debate over it has derailed more substantive issues.
While Mr Fischer was conciliatory, he was careful to accompany any promises with the need for the Government to do far more than it has so far.
Signals from Indonesia on the currency board were hard to interpret, he said.
"There are days when it seems to be removed and days when it's not."
The IMF was particularly concerned about humanitarian issues in the country, he said.
Every time the IMF reviewed a country's program, it became in essence a renegotiation anyway and there was scope for compromise.
This suggests that the IMF will be open to bargaining with the new Indonesian Government as long as it sees adequate progress.
The Japanese Government said yesterday that the Prime Minister, Mr Ryutaro Hashimoto, would visit Indonesia on Saturday to discuss the financial crisis with President Soeharto.
Japan would continue to help Indonesia, but only if it abided by the IMF's program, Mr Hashimoto said.
"Japan has vowed to give as much co-operation as possible ungrudgingly to Indonesia within the framework of the IMF."
In Canberra, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Downer, said Australia had helped convince the IMF to recognise the need for Indonesia to be able to feed its population.
The Prime Minister, Mr Howard, has warned the IMF to be more flexible or risk a repeat of the rioting which rocked the country last month when food prices soared as a result of the massive fall in the value of Indonesia's currency, the rupiah.
Mr Downer said he believed the IMF was now taking heed of these concerns.
By Margot Cohen in Jakarta and Bandung, West Java -- By all accounts, the speech was masterly. "Human rights have practically disappeared," intoned President Suharto. "The law offers almost no guarantee or protection... Power is centred absolutely in one hand, that of head of state. The nation's wealth has been used for personal gain, and squandered on flashy projects that have destroyed the economy."
Mea culpa? Hardly. Suharto uttered those stinging words 30 years ago to tell Indonesia's parliament what went wrong under Sukarno, his predecessor. Suharto's view of his own achievements remains decidedly rosy, judging by his March 1 speech at the opening session of the People's Consultative Assembly, which meets once every five years. Bolstered by a 25,000-strong security force and a $5 million expense account, this government-appointed, 1,000- member body will dutifully grant the 76-year-old president a seventh term on March 11.
Yet Suharto's words of 1967 are coming back to haunt him. In the west Java city of Bandung, and elsewhere in the country, pro- democracy activists are surreptitiously circulating excerpts of the president's speech as an ironic critique of his New Order regime. And thousands of Indonesians, young and old, are finding their own voice to criticize the government.
The past three months have witnessed a flurry of student and faculty demonstrations, women's protests and public declarations of dissent. In some cases, the mood has spread to the intellectual elite, alarmed by the economic and political developments. Demands for lower prices have swelled into calls for fundamental political and economic reforms.
In standing up to the Suharto regime, however, Indonesia's nascent opposition forces stand divided. Some analysts dismiss the latest initiatives as doomed because the opposition lacks consistent, effective leadership as well as resources. Arrests and disappearances are also putting a damper on the opposition's momentum.
So what could bind together the various elements? "The misery. The economic failure. The unbearable life," answers Amien Rais, an outspoken Islamic leader. "There is a certain stage when everything is beyond the limits of tolerance. People will think automatically, enough is enough. We must say goodbye to the ancien regime." He may have a point. Of late, some have even begun to think the unthinkable--that the powerful military, listening to the cacophony of public protest, could eventually abandon its loyalty to Suharto and align alongside reformist forces. Amien, 53, is chairman of the 25-million-member Muslim organization Muhammadiyah, and only one star in the constellation of Indonesia's reformists. Another celebrity is Megawati Sukarnoputri, Sukarno's 50-year-old daughter, who has remained suspended in an outer galaxy ever since the government engineered her ouster in June 1996 as chairman of the Indonesian Democratic Party, known by its acronym PDI. The oldest star has been the last to emerge: Emil Salim, 67, an American-trained economist and a former environment minister.
Depending on one's telescope, these stars either shine brightly or twinkle very dimly indeed. Some Indonesians even question whether they belong in the same firmament, since Emil has indicated a willingness to work with Suharto by offering himself as the president's potential running mate, while Amien and Megawati have both declared themselves ready for the presidential slot. (In the short term, this is a question of image, not reality, given Suharto's lock on the presidency and his choice of Research and Technology Minister B.J. Habibie for vice- president.)
The fledgling opposition is divided over not only which leader to follow, but also over the urgency of deciding whether to identify one leader or forge a coalition of chieftains. One opinion was voiced by Abdul Wahab Tahir, a 28-year-old student activist in Ujung Pandang, capital of South Sulawesi province. "The important thing is to work towards a shared vision for the future. Once we share this vision, a leader will automatically emerge," he says. The counter-argument is that mass discontent can easily disintegrate into chaos unless a charismatic leader or a solid coalition manages to channel public anger into constructive action.
Indeed, a major reason for the swelling ranks of reformists is moral revulsion at the anti-Chinese riots that have already flared up in scattered locations on the islands of Java, Sumatra, Flores, Lombok and Sulawesi. In campus demonstrations, student leaders have felt compelled to warn against making the Chinese scapegoats in the economic chaos. Emil, Amien and Megawati have all issued public appeals aimed at deterring anti-Chinese violence.
The trio also share a tendency to portray their efforts as a "moral struggle," rather than a stab at getting political power. They insist their primary interest is in the "political education" of the Indonesian people, who are excluded from political participation at the grassroots--except once every five years during parliamentary election campaigns. In part, this rhetoric may be an attempt to seem slightly less threatening to the government, and thus to attract followers who may be fearful of head-on confrontation.
The moralist rhetoric also lets students off the hook if they fail to suggest specific reforms. "The student movement reacts spontaneously. If something is wrong, we shout, 'It's wrong,'" says Didik Fotunadi, a 24-year-old activist at the Bandung Institute of Technology. "If we want to analyze the problem and find a solution, it will take more than 10 years. Let the guys at the top figure it out."
Some elements of the disaffected elite are looking for answers in Emil, a Sumatran Muslim with a jovial manner. This is the man who could conceivably be consulted by the military if loyalties to Suharto do wear thin. Around him has formed an embryonic "nucleus of an alternative elite," says a Western diplomat. In mid- February, when Emil suddenly announced his possible candidacy for vice-president, a stream of big names hastened to back him up. Even Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, the current environment minister, put in a good word.
Although Emil's sudden candidacy was widely viewed as a response to Habibie's controversial one, Emil's supporters emphasize his virtues: personal integrity, long experience in government, a rational technocrat's view of economic policy. For example, Emil has spoken out against immediately imposing an exchange-rate peg for the rupiah--a pet scheme of the president that has raised the ire of the International Monetary Fund. In a March 1 speech, Suharto advocated what was termed "IMF-plus," an improbable marriage between the IMF bailout plan and a currency-board scheme.
Emil has also stressed the need to strengthen the social safety net and focus on immediately providing food and medicine to the poor. He doesn't mind discussing such programmes with Amien and Megawati, but has no interest in working with them to topple Suharto. "The economic situation must not be used as a lever to change the political situation," he told the Review. "The cost is too high." To narrow the gap between rich and poor, Emil favours affirmative action but not based on race or religion. Instead, he prefers to "help the weak" with special loans and other initiatives.
Emil does not appear to be a major threat to Suharto's New Order. As a member of the elite and the regime's old guard, Emil has virtually no mass base and no wish to mobilize demonstrations. The belated announcement of his candidacy has raised questions about his determination to effect change. Some analysts predict that he may fade from the scene shortly after the national assembly adjourns. Yet Emil hints: "Once the bus is running, it's hard to stop."
Amien, for his part, has slowed it down. He demanded a new president in 1998. He denounced corruption and political favours to conglomerates. But on February 26--a few days before the national assembly's first session--Amien appeared on the podium at a Jakarta function to honour a think-tank established under Habibie's patronage. Sounding like a babysitter caving in to the demands of a young ward, Amien said he would "give one last, last, last chance" to Suharto.
Those words and his appearance on the dais have fuelled speculation that Amien is back in cahoots with his old buddies at the Indonesian Association of Muslim Intellectuals--notwithstanding his forced resignation from the leadership of the Islamic organization, which is chaired by Habibie. Giving one last chance to Suharto was designed to discourage young protesters from gathering outside the national assembly hall to deliver signatures supporting Amien as president. Amien maintains he wanted to avoid any student clashes with security forces.
Like Emil, Amien stresses the importance of clean government and a development policy that encourages grassroots participation and decentralization. But unlike Emil, he favours an affirmative- action plan that targets indigenous Muslims, similar to Malaysia's New Economic Policy. In the hopes of blunting his sectarian image, however, Amien met a number of Christian leaders recently, and in late March plans to talk with ethnic-Chinese leaders in East Java.
That region remains a stronghold of Megawati, whom Amien has met several times to explore common ground. However, it appears that historical baggage is blocking prospects for a real working coalition. Essentially, the two opposition leaders speak a different language. While Megawati draws on her heritage in the nationalist movement, often invoking her father's image, Amien relies upon Islamic idioms in the spirit of Masyumi, a former political party.
Amien and Megawati also seem to differ over tactics. Kwik Kian Gie, one of Megawati's top aides, says she will never mobilize supporters to take to the streets for fear the demonstrations would be infiltrated by agents provocateurs and end in violence. Amien, on the other hand, still believes in peaceful change through a kind of "People Power" revolution.
Both Amien and Megawati will have to prove their stamina as opposition leaders. Despite a couple of strongly-worded speeches this year, Megawati remains fairly passive about recruiting new converts, and in the countryside her message seems to be fading. It doesn't help that the government has pressured the local press to play down her statements. "We have been unable to detect the direction of Mother Megawati's thoughts," says Abdul, the student activist in Ujung Pandang.
One new strategy slowly emerging is to use food distribution and other charitable works as an entry point to build new links with local communities. Alumni networks also present the possibility of broadening the student movement to include middle- and upper- class Indonesians who are spread throughout the bureaucracy and the private sector.
Appeals to the military have also begun. In an unusual incident at the University of Indonesia in Jakarta on February 25, retired Brig.-Gen. Hariadi Darmawan, chairman of the alumni association, issued a statement condemning the excesses of the Suharto government. Hariadi, a veteran student leader who opposed Sukarno in 1966, urged ABRI, the armed forces, to return to the doctrine of "what's best for the people is best for ABRI." He told the Review that several active generals subsequently called to congratulate him, although he was warned through formal channels not to go too far.
None of these initiatives is likely to translate into meaningful political capital anytime soon, but advocates say it's a start. It will attract more people to the opposition, perhaps a better strategy for the different groups than forging formal ties with one another. "The more groups that stand up on their own, the better," concludes Megawati aide Kwik. "The government will realize that this is spreading."
By David Jenkins -- So who is to blame for the mess in Indonesia, a nation that appears to be sliding inexorably towards political, social and economic chaos?
Can everything be laid at the feet of President Soeharto's New Order Government, in power for 32 years and widely criticised for fostering a climate of corruption and nepotism?
Or is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also partly responsible? Has the IMF made matters worse by insisting on serious structural and institutional reforms when it should only have been holding out a helping hand and offering technical expertise?
In the view of most economic analysts, the fault clearly lies with Jakarta, although some will acknowledge that the IMF may have overstepped the mark and been insufficiently flexible.
Others argue that the IMF has asked Indonesia to do too much too soon and say that the country has had an unfair press.
Whatever the truth of the matter, the Reserve Bank of Australia believes the situation is so desperate that immediate pressure for structural reform has to be set aside in favour of emergency measures. The bank's deputy governor, Dr Stephen Grenville, said on Thursday that it was time to refocus the reform effort on the core economic issues -- the exchange rate, foreign debt and rebuilding the financial sector.
While reform in the structural issues of governance was eminently desirable, "what is needed now is the kind of triage we see in an emergency room -- sorting the life-saving critical priorities from longer-term issues", he said.
Indonesia's collapse has come with breathtaking suddenness. A year ago, its economy was rattling along at a fine clip. GDP growth in 1996 was just under 8 per cent and inflation was under control, at 6.6 per cent.
As the Australian National University's Asia Pacific Profiles 1997 noted, high growth was generating steady and substantial increases in average incomes. "A high level of capital inflow, predominantly driven by the private sector, demonstrates the attractiveness of Indonesia to foreign investors."
As it happened, that high level of capital inflow proved to be a curse, not a cause for celebration.
When Indonesia began to be affected by the "contagion" spreading from Thailand, there was a huge change in investor confidence. Investors who had been prepared to gamble heavily on the stability of a regime that was heavily dependent on one man and known for its cavalier attitudes to "governance" issues, making hay while the sun shone, suddenly took flight.
Most Indonesian companies are technically bankrupt, unable to service private debt of about $US74 billion ($111 billion). The country is facing hyperinflation. The banking system is close to collapse. There are fears of widespread unrest.
Indonesia's relationship with the IMF has come under increasing strain since October, when Jakarta called on the fund for help. In return for a $US18 billion bail-out package, Soeharto agreed to undertake significant microeconomic reforms.
The IMF package failed to stop the rot, partly because investment sentiment had soured, partly because the Government seemed to be dragging its feet on reforms that cut across the interests of Soeharto's family and friends.
On January 15, as Indonesia reeled from a renewed loss of confidence, representatives of the IMF and the Government agreed on a new rescue package, this one costed at $US40billion. Many of the conditions in the 50-point IMF Mark II were tougher than those in the earlier package; others were eased somewhat.
As part of the deal, Jakarta agreed to postpone expensive infrastructure projects, phase out monopolies, reduce fuel subsidies, overhaul the banking sector and reduce trade barriers.
That was not enough to restore market confidence for more than a few days. As many saw it, Soeharto was continuing to drag his feet on reform.
To make matters worse, the President shunned his Finance Minister, dismissed and humiliated his central bank governor and board of directors and made it plain that he wanted the high- spending Research Minister, Jusuf Habibie, as his new Vice- President, a move that caused the rupiah to plunge to 17,000 to the US dollar at one point.
This month, as the situation has continued to deteriorate, Indonesia has been engaged in an unseemly slanging match with the IMF.
According to Steve Hanke, an American economist who has been advising the President about the supposed benefits of pegging the rupiah to the dollar, a frustrated Soeharto believes "the current IMF program hasn't been a roaring success". That may be true. But whose fault is it?
Bijan Aghevli, a senior IMF official, says the blame for Indonesia's problems lies not with the fund but with "lack of confidence in the markets that the program is going to be put in place". In an interview with The Washington Post, Aghevli pointed to evidence that the President was hoping to go on subsidising industrial projects in which members of his family and crony businessmen hold large interests, citing the "national car" project backed by his youngest son, Tommy.
Others, while willing to concede that the Indonesians have shot themselves in the foot at every opportunity, argue that the IMF has pushed for too much reform, too quickly.
According to this view, the IMF made a number of mistakes, some purely technical, others more ideological or philosophical, involving an overly nosey interest in "governance" issues.
The fund first insisted, unwisely, on a 1 per cent budget surplus, an impossible hurdle for Jakarta to clear when the exchange rate was deteriorating so rapidly. That set the country up for an inevitable fall.
When the budget was brought down in early January, market expectations were dashed by unrealistic assumptions about the exchange rate and by a 33per cent increase in expenditure, an unavoidable outcome given the value of the rupiah.
Yet, say the critics, when Indonesia went on to produce an equally fictitious revised budget, based on an equally unrealistic exchange rate and providing for an even greater (45 per cent) increase in expenditure, the fund seemed perfectly happy.
Meanwhile, they say, the fund was continuing to insist on unrealistic structural reform.
"They were asked to do things that were clearly going to be just about impossible to do," said an expert on Indonesia's economy.
"The way it was announced by [the IMF's managing director, Michel] Camdessus was, in effect, "We will substantially sweep away all restrictions.' And he wasn't talking about foreign exchange as one area. He meant all restrictions. So, foreign investment? All gone! Monopolies? All gone! Marketing agencies? All gone!"
In Australian terms, this source said, that was the equivalent of the IMF coming in and saying we had to disband everything from the Australian Wheat Board, the NSW Grain Handling Authority (Graincorp) and the former Egg Marketing Board to the Potato Growers' Marketing Association and "zillions" of other similar bodies -- in one or two months. "We couldn't do that in a month or three months," said this source, who noted that these bodies were not so harmful in Australia. "What Jakarta was asked to do was essentially dismantle the way business had been done in Indonesia for at least 30 years and perhaps even since independence."
It is true, the critics say, that Thailand and South Korea have been on the mend since they agreed to IMF-mandated reforms. But, they say, Seoul was not asked to disband the chaebols, or conglomerates, that dominate the South Korean economy.
It is also true, they add, that Soeharto should have done some of the things he promised to do in the January 15 statement. But, they contend, much of the blame can be shot home to IMF ineptitude and pushiness.
"What you have to say is that the Indonesians are screwing up at every turn," said an economist. "But in a way, my starting point is to say, "Well, of course the Indonesians are screwing up. That's why they are a developing country.'
"The IMF is meant to be there, not in a sense raising the hurdle all the time and seeing if they'll jump it. The IMF should be there taking their hand and gently shifting them towards better practice. And that's where I think the IMF has gone right off the rails."
That echoes the view of Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and president of the US National Bureau of Economic Research.
"The IMF's recent emphasis on imposing major structural and institutional reforms as opposed to focusing on balance-of- payments adjustments will have adverse consequences in both the short term and the more distant future," he writes in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs.
The IMF, he says, should stick with its traditional task of helping countries cope with a temporary shortage of foreign exchange.
According to Feldstein, the doyen of conservative US economists, the IMF should provide the technical advice and the limited financial assistance necessary to deal with a funding crisis and to place a country in a situation that makes a relapse unlikely.
"It should not use the opportunity to impose other economic changes that, however helpful they may be, are not necessary to deal with the balance-of-payments problem and are the proper responsibility of the country's own political system."
Phil Smith, Jakarta -- Indonesia is being criticised for not implementing the International Monetary Fund's new set of economic reforms quickly enough and President Suharto has come under increasing pressure from agencies and governments to get things going.
In January, the IMF returned to Indonesia to renegotiate economic reforms attached to a rescue package of some $40 billion it had orchestrated.
This became necessary because the Indonesian government had been dragging its feet on the original set of reforms set out when the rescue package was first thrashed out last October.
In the latest twist to the saga, the IMF said on Friday its board would not discuss Indonesia's reform programme before April, effectively delaying the next $3-billion disbursement.
Indonesian Finance Minister Mar'ie Muhammad had said earler on Friday that he remained optimistic the IMF would meet the March 15 deadline for a decision on the disbursement.
The January agreement set out the broad macroeconomic framework.
It said the IMF programme was designed to avoid a decline in output while containing inflation to 20 percent this year, and assumed that the external current account would move to sizeable surplus, which would help generate revenue to pay off debt. The main action points were:
The 1998/99 budget will be revised
This was done. In late-January Finance Minister Mar'ie Muhammad announced a budget closely tracking the IMF's recommendations that predicted zero growth, inflation at 20 percent and an average rupiah rate of 5,000 per dollar.
The original budget in early January forecast four percent growth, nine percent inflation and an exchange rate of 4,000.
Action to curb energy subsidies
This has yet to be enacted. The government has said it will start to eliminate subsidies on fuel and electricity gradually, starting with a sizeable initial adjustment on April 1. Kerosene and diesel fuel used mainly by poorer sections of the community will not be immediately effected. But analysts say the recent move to subsidise food imports such as sugar, wheat flour and soybeans by providing a fixed exchange rate of 5,000 rupiah to the U.S. dollar does not set a good precedent for the lifting of subsidies on fuel in less than a month.
The immediate cancellation of 12 infrastructure projects
This issue is clouded by the fact that there is not enough cash around to fund the projects at the moment anyway, so all have basically ground to a halt.
President Suharto has said he will review or postpone 15 major infrastructure projects including two coal-fired power plants estimated to cost a combined $3.5 billion. Projects delayed include toll roads, smaller power stations and a new airport in the city of Medan. Eight other projects are under review.
Analysts noted that one big project, a Jakarta public transit system, has been allowed to continue. It has been inaugurated by its principle sponsor, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, Suharto's daughter.
Tax benefits under the national car programme will end
In January the government stopped its funding to the Timor national car project started by Hutomo (Tommy) Mandala Putra, Suharto's youngest son. But analysts said tax exemptions for Timor were restored to allow its parent to sell stock.
But Timor is now only to receive less than half of a $690 million loan from a consortium of 16 Indonesian banks because of the economic crisis.
Bank Indonesia to be given full autonomy on monetary policy
A decree granting full autonomy to the central bank on monetary policy was put in place days after the revised IMF package was signed.
However, last month Suharto sacked central bank governor Sudradjad Djiwandono over his opposition to a fixed exchange rate system for the rupiah.
Bank director Boediono, also thought to be against the near-term implementation of a currency board, was also replaced last week. Analysts said the moves do not point to a great deal of central bank autonomy on policy, monetary or otherwise. 6) An end of government support for projects of state aircraft maker Industry Pesawat Terbang Nusantara (IPTN)
The government has withdrawn funding for IPTN, a pet project of Research and Technology Minister Jusuf Habibie. Habibie is standing unopposed for the post of vice-president.
But analysts noted that the $2-billion project to develop a new 130-seat N-2130 passenger was still going ahead and doubted whether it was possible to fully fund it from other sources. U.S. aircraft maker Boeing has said it will help with the development, but said nothing about financial backing.
Bank and corporate sector restructuring
So far 16 insolvent banks have been closed, leaving around 200 still in business. Financial analysts reckon at least another 50 to 70 should close immediately and nearly all agree that banking sector reform should be speeded up dramatically.
Structural reforms such as breaking up monopolies and cartels
Decrees scrapping state commodities regulator BULOG'S import and distribution monopolies, except for rice, and the elimination of the clove monopoly were issued in January.
But analysts said there has been much controversy about restrictive practices after cartels like Apkindo, controlled by Muhammad (Bob) Hasan, a close associate of Suharto, were scrapped. Apkindo oversaw the marketing of plywood.
Newspapers reported that plywood exporters had been pressured to use the Indonesian Shipping Association for transport, effectively creating another cartel. But since the publicity the restrictive practice has now been done away with and exporters are now free to use the shippers of their choice.
Another example of foot dragging has been the announcement that the clove monopoly controlled by Suharto's son Tommy will continue until June. Cloves are an important ingredient in Indonesia's lucrative market for traditional cigarettes.
All barriers to investment in palm oil plantations to be removed
President Suharto has issued a decree allowing foreign investment in palm oil plantations. Analysts said some Malaysian companies were getting involved in deals with local companies.
But there have been reports that the government is restricting this more open market to the relatively undeveloped East of the island of Java. Overseas investors have been more interested in plantations in the West where better infrastructure makes for lower operating costs.
Setting up of a bank deposit insurance programme to protect depositors
Finance Minsister Mar'ie Muhammad has said the government would cover all legal deposits in the 16 liquidated banks and the government has said it will guarantee commercial banks' obligations to depositors and creditors.
But analysts noted that this scheme would be difficult to enact until a decision was taken on the currency board system, which would peg the rupiah to a foreign currency, most probably the U.S. dollar.
They said it would be difficult if not impossible to continue to guarantee deposits under a currency board system because reserves would be earmarked to back the local currency in issue and for no other purpose.
| Environment/land disputes |
Nick Edwards, Singapore -- The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said on Thursday a global effort was needed to put out Indonesia's spreading forest fires.
"We need the resources of the world, not just Asian people, to help put these fires out," Suvit Yodmani, regional director for UNEP in Asia and the Pacific, told Reuters by telephone.
Blamed on slash-and-burn land clearing and worsened by El Nino- induced drought, Indonesia's fires spewed a cloud of thick choking smog across Southeast Asia in 1997, causing widespread health problems and airport and factory closures.
Experts expect the fires to be even worse this year.
Indonesia's Forum for the Environment (Walhi) says the situation in East Kalimantan, on the Indonesian part of Borneo island, is already desperate with up to 40,000 hectares (100,000 acres) destroyed so far this year and 900 fire sites or "hot spots" identified by satellite pictures.
Yodmani said international aid was vital to Jakarta, where rebuilding an economy shattered by financial crisis ranked far higher than quenching fires in remote East Kalimantan. "The fires are happening at a time when Indonesia can least afford to deal with them. It tempers and limits the (fire- fighting) effort which is why we are asking the whole world to do something about it," Yodmani said.
About $6 million has already been pledged by the United States and the Asian Development Bank to tackle the blazes and devise an anti-smog strategy -- a tiny sum compared with the $1.3 billion they are estimated to have cost in 1997.
Indonesia bore an estimated $1 billion from last year's fires mostly in medical costs and lost tourism that pales beside its corporate debt of more than $70 billion.
"The fact is the economic crisis in Indonesia has a far higher priority than the smog," said Bruce Gale of the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) in Singapore.
Scientists think last year's Indonesian fires belched about three billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) -- considered one of the most damaging greenhouse gasses -- into the atmosphere. This is equivalent to the European Union's entire CO2 output for the year.
"These fires have an impact on the world's environment and the whole issue of global warming. It is a very serious problem globally, not just regionally, and the world must work together to solve it," Yodmani said.
| Human rights/law |
Jakarta -- Indonesia's National Commission on Human Rights has urged police to investigate the mysterious disappearances of two dissidents early last month, an English-language daily reported Tuesday.
According to a Jakarta Post report, members of the commission said Monday the disappearances of Pius Lustrilanang, 30, and Desmond Mahesa, 33, were most unusual and need to be investigated.
Lustrilanang is secretary general of the loose Siaga alliance, which supports political opposition figures Megawati Sukarnoputri and Amien Rais, while Mahesa is director of the Jakarta Legal Aid Foundation.
The police and the military have been carefully monitoring dissidents' activities in the run-up to President Suharto's unopposed election Tuesday to a seventh five-year term of office.
Commission officials said the police and military have not even bothered to respond to letters of inquiry sent to them by the commission on two occasions -- Feb. 12 and March 5.
Activists have said they suspect that military intelligence agents were behind the disappearances.
According to Mahesa's associates, eight agents visited his office Feb. 2, the day before he disappeared, and left after speaking with him. He arrived for work the next day but was not seen again after leaving the office.
Lustrilanang was reportedly last seen Feb. 4 when he visited a relative at a Jakarta hospital.
His mother, Fransisca Sri Haryatni, reportedly went to the commission's Jakarta headquarters Monday to ask about her son's whereabouts.
"I just want to know whether my son is still alive and where he is now. If he is already dead, I want to pray for his soul," the Jakarta Post quoted her as saying.
The commission, which is now in its fourth year of operation, has actively undertaken investigations into suspected human rights violations and publicized its independent findings and recommendations.
Although it is government-appointed, the commission is known for its independent investigations of human rights issues.
But it lacks enforcement powers, has limited resources and is occasionally subjected to government pressure. The government has tended to ignore some of its findings, while responding slowly to other findings.
Jakarta -- Indonesian police detained nine activists after a pro-democracy event in north Jakarta on Tuesday that was timed to coincide with the election of President Suharto to a seventh five-year term.
Activist Bonar Tigor - known as Coki - from PIJAR (a political reform group) told Reuters that he and eight other activists were detained at the North Jakarta police station on charges of holding an unauthorised meeting.
The meeting was attended by about 150 people including foreign diplomats. It was called the People's General Assembly in opposition to the official People's Consultative Assembly - MPR - that elected Suharto.
"After a short oration by Ratna Sarumpaet and singing of the national anthem, we declared that we would disperse and when we left the pavilion, the security forces attacked and took us away," Tigor said.
Sarumpaet (actress and playwright) is a leading activist with the SIAGA group which supports the outspoken Muslim leader Amien Rais and ousted minority party leader, Megawati Sukarnoputri. Neither was present at the meeting.
Witnesses said a group of activists tried to surround Sarumpaet and escort her to her car after she gave a pro-democracy speech, and police detained all those around her in a scuffle.
"There was lots of shoving but I didn't see anyone hit or any blood split," one witness said.
[Tapol posted this list of the ten (rather than nine) arrested activits - JB.]
[They have been charged with under Article 501 of the Criminal Code, for holding a public event without permission and Law Number 5/1969 (previously a presidential decree from 1963). This proscribes what is acceptable political activity and punishes those who engage in unacceptable political activity with five years imprisonment - James Balowski.]Ratna Sarumpaet, coordinator of SIAGA (Solidarity for Amien Rais and Megawati) Ging Ginanjar. a freelance journalist and member of AJI, the independent journalists alliance, Alexius Suria Tjahaja Tomu, lawyer of PBHI, the legal aid and human rights association, Fathom Saulina, the daughter of Ratna Sarumpaet Bonar Tigor Naipospos (Coki), Director of MIK, the Indonesian Humanitarian Association, Wira, a human rights defender of PIPHAM, a human rights educational group, Joel Thaher, artist, member of the theatre group "Satu Merah Panggung" run by Ratna Sarumpaet. Manggara Siahaan, member of Megawati's PDI, Aspar Paturusi, artist Adi Hermawan
| Arms/armed forces |
Allan Nairn, Jakarta -- Today in Indonesia activists and observers speculate that the country -- reeling from hunger and mass layoffs promoted by the IMF -- is moving toward social upheaval and perhaps a change of regime. At the dumps in Bantar Gebang, the ranks of scavengers have soared as sacked day laborers pick through garbage hoping to survive. In the midst of this, many Western reporters are casting Washington as a champion of reform because it is twisting Suharto's arm to implement a fifty-point IMF plan that includes some popular clauses that cut against the Suharto family's vast corruption. Largely unknown is that the Clinton Administration, against an understanding with Congress, is shoring up the Indonesian military's response against its own people.
The Suharto regime counts on its armed forces, ABRI, to survive, and is intensifying the grip of the police state with each fresh week of crisis. The army has demanded access to cell-phone- company systems, explaining that it has to monitor, cut off and, if need be, seize critical callers. On March 7, a human rights lawyer was talking to a friend on his home phone when a voice broke in and warned, "I will kill you tonight." This followed an afternoon fax -- emblazoned with a hammer and sickle and skull -- that said, "Don't Be a Hero. Be Careful of Your Safety, Your Self and Your Family." Although the law already prohibits gatherings of five or more people without state permission, the ABRI recently announced a formal ban on demonstrations (which students and workers have defied). On March 9, Suharto's tame assembly granted him new "special powers." Gen. Feisal Tanjung even announced that opponents of the regime will be "cut to pieces."
The United States and the IMF are using the crisis to push Indonesia from protected capitalism, crony-style, to a harsher, multinational and corporate variety based on submission to global markets. The IMF plan means wage restraint, mass layoffs, "more flexible" labor markets and the phased-in end of all existing food and fuel subsidies for the poor. Stanley Roth, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and an IMF booster, says: "We're going to see tremendous hardship in the Indonesian countryside as millions of unemployed go back to their villages." A senior U.S. official here calls the IMF the "lance point" of U.S. policy and says that if Suharto doesn't go along he will be "committing suicide." But regardless of what happens to the 76-year-old dictator, U.S. policy is grounded on maintaining control inside Indonesia through backing and strengthening ABRI.
The current planning, according to officials familiar with Pentagon, White House and State Department discussions, envisions a post-Suharto regime perhaps headed by a civilian or civilians but under which ABRI keeps its vast apparatus and "dual function" security/political role. Sources here say that Washington has queried Megawati Sukarno -- the most popular opposition figure -- on whether she would accept an ABRI vice president or a candidate approved by the army.
Indonesians know well that ABRI is the co-manager with Suharto of state repression and the author, under his command, of two of the most intensive slaughters of the postwar era (the massacre of a half-million Indonesians when Suharto and ABRI seized control starting in 1965, and the post-1975 extermination of one-third of the populace of occupied East Timor, some 200,000 people). The United States collaborated with the 1965 slaughter (as documented by journalist Kathy Kadane in The Washington Post), providing a list of 5,000 communists and dissidents, most of whom were then assassinated. The United States approved the East Timor invasion, blocked the U.N. Security Council from enforcement action and, after the 1991 massacre in Dili (which I survived but at least 271 did not), helped the ABRI with damage control. On December 10, 1991, according to a State Department cable, the United States convened a secret meeting in Surabaya and assured ABRI that Washington did "not believe that friends should abandon friends in times of adversity." That same sentiment is now being reiterated in Jakarta. Since the crisis got under way last summer, senior Pentagon and service officials have flown here to meet top ABRI officers at least two or three times a month. When Defense Secretary William Cohen visited here in January, he pointedly refused to call for ABRI restraint in dealing with street demonstrations. Asked about the overall message conveyed by the visits, one official said, "It's simple. The U.S. is close to and loves the army."
That U.S. stance -- although fairly widely understood within ABRI and a key source of its apparent confidence -- seems less clear to foreign observers, the press and some in the U.S. Congress. Noting that many weapons sales have been curtailed in the years since the Dili massacre, many have wrongly assumed the White House was distancing itself from ABRI. In fact, those cutoffs, which included fighter plane and small-arms sales, were imposed on two recalcitrant administrations by a bipartisan coalition in Congress responding to grassroots organizing pressure.
The cutoff that most stunned Jakarta was the vote by Congress, in the fall of 1992, to end the military training that Indonesian officers received in the United States under the International Military Education and Training program. After a fierce counterattack by Jakarta and U.S. corporate partners of Suharto, the IMET was partially restored in 1994 and 1995, as a smaller program called E-IMET that purported to instruct ABRI in human rights. After 1995 Congress agreed in its foreign aid appropriations bills that the only training Indonesia could get would be E-IMET-style classroom instruction.
But newly obtained Pentagon documents and interviews with key U.S. officials indicate that, largely unknown to Congress and unremarked by the U.S. press, the U.S. military has been training ABRI in a broad array of lethal tactics. This (much of it known as JCET, or Joint Combined Exchange Training) dwarfs IMET in size and scope, and is apparently being intensified as the Indonesia crisis deepens. Unlike the E-IMET stateside classroom lectures, this operation has involved at least thirty-six exercises with fully armed U.S. combat troops flying or sailing into Indonesia. The U.S. participants have included Green Berets, Air Force commandos and Marines. The ABRI trainees have run the gamut from Suharto's presidential guard to KOSTRAD, the key Army Strategic Command that anchors the regime in central Jakarta.
By far the main recipient of the special U.S. training has been a force legendary for specializing in torture, disappearances and night raids on civilian homes. Of the twenty-eight Army/Air Force exercises known to have been conducted since 1992, Pentagon documents indicate that twenty have involved the dreaded KOPASSUS Red Berets.
Asked about KOPASSUS, a leading Indonesian human rights monitor called its work "spying, terror and counterterror," meaning that it stages violent provocations. He said KOPASSUS battalions from Aceh and West Papua were relocated to Jakarta two months ago and have recently been deployed to contain street demonstrations along with units of ABRI's regional command. His group believes that KOPASSUS has two clandestine jails (in Cibubur and Bogor) for detaining and questioning dissidents they have abducted and "disappeared." A knowledgeable U.S. official confirms that KOPASSUS has been implicated in torture and civilian killings in West Papua, Aceh and occupied East Timor.
The Sydney Morning Herald reports that in a forthcoming military journal article, Brigadier Jim Molan, the Australian defense attachi in Jakarta, will warn (as paraphrased by the Herald) that his army's own KOPASSUS training program "risks associating Australia with human rights abuses." Reached for comment, Molan confirmed the substance of the piece but said that to learn about KOPASSUS I should call the U.S. Embassy. The U.S. exercises for KOPASSUS in the period since the Timor massacre have included Sniper Level II (1993), Demolitions and Air Operations (1993) and Close Quarters Combat (1994). The last of these was performed after the State Department, to stave off stronger action by Congress, had imposed the ban on the sale of small arms to Indonesia. Ensuing KOPASSUS sessions covered Special Air Operations, Air Assaults and Advanced Sniper Techniques.
On July 27, 1996, Jakarta erupted in anti-army riots, after ABRI-backed paramilitaries raided Megawati Sukarno's headquarters, leaving at least sixty people listed as missing. In the wake of that, ABRI launched a crackdown and intimidation campaign against nongovernmental organizations. In the midst of it, KOPASSUS and other units were given training in Psy Ops by a U.S. team flown in from Special Operations Command-Pacific.
From then until late 1997 there were seven more KOPASSUS exercises, one (Mortar Training) focusing on the unit of Col. Slamat Sidabutar, an East Timor occupation commander whose troops have conducted torture sessions that were photographed and later published abroad. The U.S. Marines have trained the Indonesian Denjaka Counterterrorism Force in Demolition and Small Weapons Instruction as well, and also run a course for the Indonesian First Infantry Brigade on Small Boat Operations, Reconnaissance, Surveillance and Raids. As the financial crisis hit and protest grew last fall, KODAM Jaya, one of the main anti-demonstration forces, and the Infantry Training Center received twenty-six days of instruction from the U.S. Army in Military Operations in Urban Terrain.
Reached by phone at the U.S. Embassy, Col. Bob Humberson, who coordinates the training programs, said: "We want to make sure they know the right way to do it by minimizing casualties and with proper treatment of the enemy or unidentified personnel." Asked what enemy might be found on the urban streets of Indonesia, he said the training was designed to repel "an enemy from outside." He ended up contending that since some Indonesian troops had served in Bosnia (with the U.N.), this kind of urban training would make troops ready for action there. Humberson said that none of the Urban Terrain schooling had to do with crowd control and that all the exercises fit the guidelines of the E- IMET program. His aide, Maj. Rick Thomas, called the exercises "very tame" and said all were approved by the State Department. Thomas estimated that for the remainder of 1998 there would be twenty exercises, including smaller-scale exchanges of experts.
The U.S. focus on KOPASSUS seems to be part of a systematic effort to build it up. It has also cemented links with its recent commander, General Prabowo. Prabowo is Suharto's son-in-law, the Indonesian business partner (through his wife) of Merrill Lynch and one of the key sponsors of the U.S.-Indonesia Society, an influential pro-Suharto U.S. front group launched in 1994 and backed by ABRI, U.S. corporations and former Pentagon, State Department and C.I.A. officials. Prabowo is also Indonesia's most notorious field commander. When I first visited East Timor in 1990, he had recently chaired a meeting in which the army had openly debated whether to assassinate future Nobel Peace laureate Bishop Carlos Belo. Today, Prabowo is the KOSTRAD commander, an often-touted Suharto successor and the recipient of a steady stream of high- level U.S. visitors. Assistant Secretary of State Stanley Roth has dined frequently with him recently. When Secretary Cohen visited, he raised eyebrows in Jakarta by going to KOPASSUS headquarters. Spending three hours by Prabowo's side, he watched as the U.S.-trained killers executed maneuvers for their sponsor from Washington.
[Veteran journalist Allan Nairn was banned from Indonesia as "a threat to national security" after he was injured while attempting to stop the 1991 East Timor massacre. He has since campaigned against U.S. support for the Suharto military regime and is now organizing Justice for All, a grassroots human rights group. After being turned away at a border crossing in rural Sumatra, he recently succeeded in re-entering Indonesia without the army's knowledge. Research support was provided by the Investigative Fund of The Nation Institute.]
Sander Thoenes, Jakarta - General Wiranto, Indonesia's new military commander, has emerged as a new voice of moderation and even a potential alternative to President Suharto.
The general, who was appointed chief of the armed forces last month, and who is expected to be named minister of defence and security today, told thousands of demonstrating students this week that "constructive demands are all right."
"We are always ready for a dialogue," said Gen Wiranto. "Students are the future of our nation. That clean officials be appointed to the cabinet, for instance, is a logical request."
Mr Wiranto's conciliatory remarks were laced with the usual condemnations of demonstrations and "revolutionary reform", but they were a far cry from those of Feisal Tanjung, his predecessor, who tended to dismiss student activists as "neo- communists" and threatened to shoot them.
Gen Wiranto has also been the only senior official to oppose publicly a recent spate of violent attacks on the Chinese minority, while Mr Tanjung and other officials tried to blame Chinese conglomerates and shop owners for the collapse of the currency and rising prices.
If he is appointed minister, he will offer some balance in a series of controversial appointments to the cabinet that give little indication that Mr Suharto is ready for change.
Ryutaro Hashimoto, Japanese prime minister, and a team from the International Monetary Fund are due in Jakarta this weekend to urge Mr Suharto to implement economic reforms. But they may end up meeting Bob Hasan, a business associate of Mr Suharto who has run a plywood cartel targeted by the IMF, in the key post of minister of trade and industry.
Although Mr Suharto has shown in recent weeks that he is still very much in charge, many look at Mr Wiranto as a widely acceptable alternative should a collapse in the economy weaken Mr Suharto's grip on the country. Many Indonesians believe Gen Wiranto, Mr Suharto's former personal aide, is too loyal to ever turn against the president, but they think he might opt at least not to shoot at demonstrators if they took to the streets.
"If one or another faction in the army says 'We support the people', it's enough," said Frans Seda, a former finance minister who watched Mr Suharto push out his predecessor, President Sukarno, by forging an alliance with student activists. "That means they can take to the streets. We need an army that does not take action against demonstrators."
Mr Seda's only fear is that Gen Wiranto's appointment would give Mr Suharto the option to remove him from the post of chief commander without having to sack him. Gen Prabowo Subianto, Mr Suharto's hard-line son-in-law, would be his most likely successor.
| International relations |
James Woodford -- The rapidly expanding role of the Defence Force in training Indonesian soldiers, including crack special forces, risks associating Australia with human rights abuses, a senior defence official at the Australian Embassy in Jakarta has warned. The Indonesian Special Forces, Kopassus, have played a leading role in military operations in East Timor and were used to protect President Soeharto's palace during political riots in Jakarta two years ago.
The warning by the defence attache to the Australian Embassy in Jakarta, Brigadier Jim Molan, comes as the Indonesian military is increasingly likely to become involved in suppressing rioting and political dissent sparked by the deepening economic crisis.
Brigadier Molan, who played a leading role in setting up the training operations, revealed that in the lead-up to the signing of the Australia-Indonesia Agreement on Maintaining Security in 1995 the army had been authorised to work with the Indonesian Army by first setting up links with Kopassus. The subsequent co- operation has been so successful that Australia has replaced the United States -- which suspended military training after the 1991 Dili massacre -- as Indonesia's closest defence partner and supplier of training.
However, in a forthcoming publication of the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre Journal, Brigadier Molan identifies potential problems, including:
Brigadier Molan stressed that he believed the issue could be managed successfully, but said it would "require particular management attention". The head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Professor Paul Dibb, says that if something does go wrong in Indonesia in the coming months and protesters are killed then there may be serious consequences for Australia.The risk of association with any internal Indonesian human rights problems caused by a military force that can be linked in some way to the Australian military. Confusing traditional friends such as the US and Britain who are taking a more aggressive stand on some human rights issues, particularly East Timor, than is Australia, whose ability to raise such questions "may now be considered circumspect". Complications in our developing relations with China if the view is taken by Beijing that the co-operation is contributing to a security arrangement aimed at establishing an anti-Chinese coalition.
But Professor Dibb, who was a senior Department of Defence official at the time the links were being established, also argues that the involvement has been positive and vital to Australia's security.
It was also appropriate to work with the Indonesian Army because it was the most powerful and influential group in the country.
The director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Mr Alan Dupont, said the defence engagement had not been well co-ordinated in its early stages but had improved greatly since. "But nevertheless the Government needs to sell this more effectively to the broader Australian public," he said.
A spokesman for the Minister for Defence, Mr McLachlan, said the Government "would not offer views on matters like that". "They are very much his [Brigadier Molan's] views and not necessarily those of the Government."
However the Herald has learnt that drafts of Brigadier Molan's paper were submitted for comment to the Defence Department.
[This item is particularly interesting in that the "risks" to Australia and/or its army are defined only in terms of Australia's international image and economic interests. While referring to the "likelihood" that human rights abuses may occur (rather than have and continue to), there is no suggestion that this in itself is a problem for Australia - James Balowski.]
| Politics |
Seth Mydans, Jakarta -- As Indonesia enters one of its most difficult years, President Suharto announced Saturday a Cabinet marked by loyalty and family connections rather than economic expertise.
The Cabinet lineup suggested that Indonesia is prepared to hunker down in its confrontation with the International Monetary Fund over the fund's demands for a more open economy that would reduce the role of family, favoritism and cartels.
The new Cabinet includes the president's powerful daughter, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, as Minister of Social Affairs, and the man known as his "first friend," Mohammad Hasan, as Minister of Trade and Industry.
As part of the eclipse of technocrats in the Cabinet, the new Finance Minister is Fuad Bawazier, formerly the director of the Taxation Department, who is seen by analysts here as close to the president's family and supportive of its economic interests.
At a time of growing fears of social unrest over the country's economic hardships, the new Minister of Home Affairs is Hartono, a tough former military chief who also has close ties to the Suharto family.
"Going through the names, I think the people and the market will find it hard to trust some of them," said a leading political commentator, Loekman Sutrisno.
Speaking of the appointment of Hasan, a wealthy businessman who has profited hugely from his friendship with the president, another prominent commentator, Umar Juoro, said, "This is not going to encourage the IMF to reach a settlement with Indonesia. Hasan has big business interests. He also does not have the best reputation among investors."
Suharto also announced that B.J. Habibie, another confidant who is the new vice president, would be given a special portfolio to deal with international organizations, giving him a higher profile than any of his predecessors in the job.
In one sign of continuity, though, Ali Alatas was retained as foreign minister for a third five-year term.
The appointment of the Cabinet is the first test of Suharto's intentions as he enters new discussions with the IMF over the austerity measures it is demanding in return for continued disbursement of its $40 billion rescue package.
It coincides with the arrival here this weekend of a team of IMF officials, of Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto of Japan and of the latest in a stream of American envoys, David Lipton, a senior Treasury Department official. All are expected to urge Suharto to proceed with the economic liberalization to which he agreed in January.
Suharto, 76, was inaugurated Wednesday for a seventh five-year term with a burst of assertions of nationalist solidarity in the face of what he and other Indonesian officials characterize as interference by the IMF and foreign governments.
The official stance was expressed by the military commander in chief, Gen. Wiranto, who said Thursday, "Reforms -- political, legal and economic -- should be constitutional, gradual and not done in a radical way."
A leading Indonesian economist, Rizal Ramli, has characterized the IMF as "an amputating doctor, not a healing doctor" whose medicine is sometimes so strong that it can kill the patient.
Suharto has made it clear that he hopes to continue to receive IMF money but that urgent additional steps must be taken to strengthen the value of the Indonesian currency, the rupiah, which has sunk to less than 30 percent of its value six months ago.
"We're not asking for much," the president told supporters on Thursday. "We just want to have a stable rupiah so that people's living standards do not fall further." In what one foreign banker described as an attempt to have his cake and eat it too, Suharto appears to hope to persuade the IMF to let him raise the value of the currency by artificially pegging it to the dollar through a currency board.
On Thursday in Washington, the Fund's director general, Michel Camdessus, said such a move would be disastrous for Indonesia now.
"Why?" he said. "Because this country with its very limited stock of reserves now, with an extremely vulnerable banking system, with a corporate debt which has not yet been stabilized or rescheduled, cannot afford to manage a currency board."
A week ago the IMF said it would delay until at least next month the release of a second disbursement of $3 billion because of Indonesia's slow action on removing price supports, reforming the banking sector and disbanding monopolies and cartels.
That announcement drew an orchestrated chorus of nationalist indignation from officials here, along with a suggestion by Suharto that the liberalized economy he had agreed to would run counter to the Indonesian ethic of family relationships and government controls.
Suharto has stubbornly resisted outside pressure, first by naming his friend Habibie as vice president, despite objections abroad that he represents that very ethic, and now by naming a Cabinet that is not dominated by economic technocrats.
Mark Brown, a vice president of the World Bank, said on Tuesday: "This is a test of wills between Suharto and domestic and international markets
Listing of members of the seventh Indonesian Cabinet (1998-2003)
President: Soeharto
Vice President: B.J. Habibie
Coordinating ministers:
Politics and Security: Feisal Tanjung
Public Wealth: Haryono Suyono
Economy & Development Supervision:
Ginandjar Kartasasmita
Development Supervision: Hartarto
Ministers:
Home Affairs: R. Hartono
Foreign Affairs: Ali Alatas
Information: Alwi Dahlan
Defense and Security: Wiranto
Health: Farid A. Muluk
Manpower: Theo L. Sambuaga
Finance: Fuad A. Bawazier
Cooperation and Small Business: Subiakto
Cakrawerdaya
Agriculture: Yustika Fahrudin B.
Education and Culture: Wiranto Arismunandar
Industry and Trade: H Mohammad Hasan
Transportation: Giri Suseno Hadi Harjono
Social Affairs: Siti Hardiyanti Indra
Rukmana
Mining and Energy: Kuntoro P. Subroto
Tourism, Post, and Telecom: Abdul Latief
Forestry: Sumohadi
Transmigration: Abdullah Moch. Hendro
Regilion: Qurais Sihab
Justice: Muladi
Public Housing: Akbar Tandjung
Public Works: Rachmadi Bambang S.
Secretary State: Saadilah Mursjid
Environment: Juwono Sudarsono
Food Affairs/Head of BULOG: Haryanto Dhanutirto
Women Participation Affairs: Tuti Alawiyah
Research & Technology/Head of BPPT:
Rahadi Ramlan
Youth and Sports: H. R. Agung Harsono
Investment/Head of BKPM: Sanyoto Sastrowardoyo
State-owned Enterprises: Tanri Abeng
Land Use/Head of BPN: Ari Marjono
General Attorney: Sujono Atmonegoro
Bank Indonesia Governor: Safril Sabirin
Louise Williams, Jakarta -- With a standing ovation in place of voting, President Soeharto was re-elected unopposed by a loyalist Assembly yesterday, the cheerful back slapping inside the Parliament far removed from the growing unrest on the streets.
In a formal ceremony of less than two minutes, the Speaker, Mr Harmoko, stated that President Soeharto was the sole candidate for the five-yearly presidential election to which the 1,000- member People's Consultative Assemby (MPR) replied with shouts of affirmation.
When the din died down Mr Harmoko pronounced 76-year-old Mr Soeharto President for a seventh consecutive five-year term, and the carefully orchestrated 10-day election process was over without a single bleat of dissent from within the Assembly.
The Vice-Presidential election, also contested by a sole handpicked candidate, the Technology Minister, Dr Jusuf Habibie, will be completed before the formal inauguration of the leaders today.
On the Assembly floor yesterday, four of President Soeharto's six children and a swag of relatives of the political elite hugged, shook hands and congratulated each other.
The Assembly is made up of 425 elected members, 75 military officers and 500 members appointed by President Soeharto, and is stacked with the allies and family members of the most powerful officials of the Soeharto regime.
"I hope for support and blessing from all the society to help him in his duty for the next five years because the coming five years will be difficult for him, maybe we would face a situation like 1965 again," President Soeharto's son, Bambang Trihatmodjo, said.
One of the President's daughters, Titik Prabowo, who runs a leading stockbroking house, said: "Of course, I feel touched and proud that father has been re-elected again. Father will focus on how to get us out of the economic crisis."
But as the Soeharto family celebrated, thousands of students staged pro-democracy rallies. Nine people were arrested in Jakarta.
President Soeharto's re-election comes as Indonesia faces growing unrest fuelled by the economic crisis and an damaging stand-off with international lenders. Late on Monday night the Assembly endorsed extra emergency powers for the President which the ruling Golkar group says reflects the Assembly's "trust" in President Soeharto, but which opposition groups believe will be used to further crack down on political dissent.
Meanwhile, the Soeharto family weighed in yesterday with a strong response to the International Monetary Fund's delayed disbursement of $US3 billion.
The family warned the international community not to try to push Indonesia around.
President Soeharto's eldest daughter and co-chair of Golkar, Siti "Tutut" Hardiyanti Rukmana, said: "If the [foreign] funds sacrifice and degrade our national dignity, we do not want them."
Second daughter, Siti Hediati Prabowo, said: "We do need the IMF, yes, but not if we are continually being repressed."
This week Indonesia's People's Assembly unanimously voted President Soeharto another five-year term. But he can't buy a vote of confidence from the IMF, or from many of his own people. Louise Williams reports.
In Less than two minutes, the presidential election was over. "As there are no other candidates," the parliamentary Speaker, Harmoko, said, "I announce President Soeharto the winner."
The People's Consultative Assembly rose to cheer their patron, their efforts to punch the air with their fists as they had done when he first came to power more than 30 years ago constrained by age and the tight fit of their formal suits.
The President sat slumped in his chair, smiling, on the stage of the cavernous assembly building. The self-congratulatory atmosphere inside was more like that of a club meeting of the political elite than a crucial moment in the history of modern Indonesia.
Thus, Soeharto this week entered his 33rd year as leader of Indonesia, his control over the stultified proceedings inside the assembly building as complete as ever. But, for a man of humble and popular beginnings, Soeharto now lives a somewhat bunkered existence, his home in tree-lined Jalan Cendana surrounded by crack troops, his every move through the crowded streets of Jakarta eased by roadblocks and squads of police escorts.
And his re-election for a seventh consecutive term was equally removed from the tough, turbulent reality of daily life in a nation battling inflation, unemployment, drought and fire.
There were no interruptions to the 11-day political script played out every five years by the People's Consultative Assembly. Its 1,000 members had been carefully vetted well in advance to ensure that not one dissenting nomination or vote would be registered. Thousands of troops were deployed to protect the VIPs from the disturbances of an increasingly hostile public.
But outside, at a small hotel on Jakarta Bay, a group of activists staged their own political theatre, with a mock offering to the people of something they have never had under Soeharto's New Order Government - a choice of presidential candidates.
Within an hour, nine of the organisers were under arrest and facing up to five years in jail for breaching regulations banning public meetings during the presidential elections. Already this year, according to Amnesty International, 330 people have been arrested for peaceful anti-Government protests.
On dozens of university campuses tens of thousands of students continued to rally, mourning Soeharto's re-election, mocking the pomp and ceremony with streams of toilet paper, and money stuck across their mouths. In Bandung, just west of Jakarta, 10,000 gathered; in the central Javanese university city of Yogyakarta 20,000 chanted anti-Soeharto slogans. By Thursday, thousands of students were fighting police in the industrial city of Surabaya.
Indonesia is facing challenges not seen since the hunger and chaos of the 1960s. The economy is on the verge of collapse and the lenders from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are standing in the wings baying for economic reforms that undermine the pyramid of privilege and patronage that has allowed Soeharto to wield such control over this vast nation.
But, clearly he is still determined to rule, and in doing so he will be seeking to protect much of what he has built, including the controversial business empires of his children.
"In five years' time, God willing, I will be standing on this podium again," he said when he rose to deliver a brief acceptance speech. His children, four of whom had a vote to cast inside the assembly, hugged each other and congratulated him.
"You can forget about all those theories that he is preparing to step down mid-term," one Asian diplomat said. "He will be spending his time trying to protect what he has built. His first priority will be his own political power and the second the position of his children; there will be no moves towards preparation for political succession." So, after months of tension Indonesia emerges from the five-yearly political show exactly where it was before.
Soeharto's age -- he will be 77 in June -- means the lack of any succession plan, and the absence of political reforms to accommodate growing demands for accountability, may spark a behind-the-scenes power struggle for first place in the line.
"The crunch really starts now -- they haven't resolved anything," another diplomat said. "Soeharto hasn't adjusted the basic way he does business; he is trying to continue is the same way with a government centred on him and strong control."
If informal lists of the new Cabinet, due to be announced over the weekend, are correct, Soeharto is preparing to appoint a team peppered with allies who owe their fortunes to his personal patronage. Gone will be the "technocrats" of more independent ideas, and in will come his entrepreneur daughter, Siti "Tutut" Hardiyanto Rukmana, and even the king of the plywood cartel, Bob Hasan, according to a list published by the Singaporean newspaper Business Times. How is it possible that a man approaching 80, with an economy in despair and the IMF hacking at the very system that enriches the loyal, is still in charge? Over 30 years Soeharto has earned a reputation as a master tactician. His New Order system has not just crushed dissent, but has offered real rewards for those who have offered it their support. For the military there have been business rights, reaping huge profits for many generals and the officers below; for the bureaucrats there have been fortunes to be made in petty graft and corruption for every piece of paper the Government demands of ordinary people.
Every position of power has offered an economic reward, and access to those positions has, ultimately, been controlled by Soeharto and those below him -- and they require evidence of political loyalty.
Dissent has been dealt with harshly and a culture of fear has emerged, discouraging those who might like to push for reforms with the exhaustion of fighting an unwinnable battle.
But logic would suggest that the recipe for success is already out of date.
"He believes he is going to be in power for the next five years," one analyst said. "But the economic problems are starting to hit home and he is not going to have the patronage to give away. His position is a lot weaker than it was before."
Another diplomat said: "I think he is getting increasingly anxious, but he is not throwing up his hands in despair; he probably still thinks he can get out of this economic crisis and still keep whatever he has built."
The immediate key to the short-term alleviation of the economic pain is the result of a stand-off with the IMF. Soeharto and several members of his Government pushed the dispute over economic reforms to the edge this week, complaining that demands to remove monopolies and subsidies were unconstitutional.
The bail-out package, as it stands, demands the dismantling of much of the patronage that gives Soeharto his power, as well as a painful dose of reforms for ordinary people. The IMF terms include the removal of fuel and food subsidies, at a time when millions are being forced back into poverty by spiralling prices and unemployment.
"Soeharto is really gambling for high stakes now. He is saying to the IMF, you push me and I will go over, and there is no alternative leader," one diplomat said. "He is calling the IMF's bluff and gambling with his country."
Soeharto has warned international lenders that a meltdown in Indonesia will have severe ripple effects in the region and may even trigger a worldwide recession.
Just how well informed the President is about the conditions facing most of his people is the subject of debate. As he has aged, he has become increasingly isolated from the ordinary peasants with whom he traded political rights for primary health-care clinics, subsidised rice, roads and cheap buses.
He is widely believed to have surrounded himself with teams of dukuns, Javanese mystical experts. Dukuns spend their time analysising spiritual forces and performing the appropriate animal sacrifices and ceremonies to head off bad fate.
"Mentally, he is still very street-smart. He listens to people around him and uses his instinct, but he doesn't read widely or watch CNN; he relies on what people tell him, so he may not have an accurate picture," a diplomat said.
That Soeharto is surrounded by people who owe their fortune to his patronage suggests a lot of criticism does not come through and his own perception of his remaining personal power may be exaggerated.
"The drama being played out on the Indonesian stage goes well beyond the straightforward economic and political problems; it is a Greek drama," the columnist Desi Anwar wrote in the English- language newspaper The Observer this week.
"It began as the triumph of good over evil seen when he put an end to the suffering of the people and brought peace and prosperity to the land and by doing so, brought greatness to himself. And the gods favoured him with seemingly endless sunshine and riches.
"But, as in all tragic stories, courage very soon turns to conceitedness, humility to hubris. He filled his own coffers before those of others, favoured flatterers to truth-tellers and tried to turn peat land into rice bowl. The mortal entertained ideas of immortality that infuriated the gods and flouted his destiny."
How the story will end remains unclear. Political analysts repeatedly point to Soeharto's success in preventing the emergence of an alternative leader. Those who have risen rapidly within his own New Order system have been crushed, just as effectively as he has crushed outsiders.
"The momentum is there for the economy to continue to slide, with a cascade affect on unemployment and inflation," one analyst said.
"The Government is printing large amounts of money and we know these things have real social impacts. It will be a very difficult environment in which to govern. "His authority is not what it used to be. You talk to those whose lot has been with the New Order and they are very disillusioned. Circumstances will throw up an alternative leader."
At the same time, some analysts believe that the armed forces may not be willing to put down student protests if the economic crisis is eroding their business privileges at the top and hurting the families of those among the ranks.
In Desi Anwar's column, the errant hero bows his head and acknowledges his mistakes and begs for the people's trust once again. But, somewhere far away, amid the cool, green rice fields of Java, a volcano is stirring.
Indonesia's President Suhahrto was Monday granted unspecified new security powers to counter social unrest and subversion.
The People's Consultative Assembly which is set to return Suharto Tuesday to office for a seventh term gave no details of the powers in a decree announcing the move.
"The People's consultative Assembly has given the president the special duty and privilege to take steps deemed necessary to rescue and maintain the nation's unity and avoid social unrest and other subversive acts," the decree said.
The use of such powers by the 76-year old leader who has held the post for 32 years, and his vice-president was in line with the country's constitution, added the decree signed by the House speaker, Harmoko.