| Home > South-East Asia >> Indonesia | |
ASIET NetNews Number 6 - February 16-22, 1998
Political/economic crisisAnnual Report of violations in East Timor Ramos-Horta disagrees Timor students go on trial Timorese arrested Atabae citizen shot
Environment/land disputesRioters paid Recent anti-Chinese violence Leaders express growing fears Suharto's foes hope to harness unrest Soeharto deputy chosen
Human rights/lawUpdate on fires/drought in Indonesia
PoliticsFear of incommunicado detention
Economy and investmentEmil exercises democracy ABRI backs Habibie Man in the news: B.J. Habibie
Arms/armed forcesSuharto seeks public confidence Suharto's resolve on peg weakens Indonesia's richest
Military displays its might Army bans all demonstrations
| East Timor |
In 1997 the international community showed a new willingness to search for solutions to the problems of conflict and human rights violations in East Timor. The pledge by the new UN Secretary- General, Kofi Annan, to renew UN peace-making efforts, the change of format in the Tripartite Talks under UN auspices, the adoption of a resolution on East Timor by the 53rd session of the UN Commission on Human Rights and the initiatives of individual governments attest to a new international commitment, inspired by the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Bishop Belo and Josi Ramos-Horta.
Yet this new engagement has not yielded any breakthroughs in the peace talks. Nor has it led to significant changes on the ground. Indeed, 1997 saw a continuation of the patterns of human rights violations that have persisted in East Timor for many years: arbitrary detentions, torture and ill-treatment, extra-judicial executions and disappearances. The East Timor Human Rights Centre (ETHRC) has documented these violations, as well as highlighting unfair trials and restrictions on freedom of expression and association.
There was a marked increase in violations by Indonesian security forces in the first half of the year, especially between May and July, in response to the violence which surrounded the May 1997 general election. During this period there were also credible reports of violations by the Armed Forces for the Liberation of East Timor (FALINTIL)* and the ETHRC condemns these as violations of international humanitarian law. However, the attacks by FALINTIL do not justify the Indonesian security forces' response of increased human rights violations. Following the FALINTIL attacks, the Indonesian military intensified its activities, with many innocent East Timorese being arbitrarily detained, tortured, intimidated and harassed in order to obtain information.
Throughout the year, legitimate and peaceful expressions of political dissent by the East Timorese people were met with excessive use of force by security forces and serious violations such as arbitrary detention and torture. Security forces also systematically committed violations against supporters of the Resistance, with East Timorese students continuing to be targeted.
This report documents these violations. It also examines ways of breaking the cycle of violence, including options for human rights monitoring by the UN. On that basis the report ends with recommendations for the government of Indonesia, the East Timor Resistance and for the international community.
* The National Council of Maubere Resistance (the umbrella organisation for the East Timorese Resistance) has publicly accepted responsibility for some of these violations and has called for an end to violence in East Timor.
Lisbon -- East Timorese activist Jose Ramos Horta has disagreed with the disclosure of a letter allegedly sent by the jailed resistance leader Xanana Gusmao where he argued against appeals for an end of armed fight in the troubled territory.
A spokesman for the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate said that it was not "adequate" to disclose the content of the letter, claiming that the "it is an internal document (of the resistance) and it should had not become public".
The letter disclosed on Tuesday by Lusa was addressed to the head of the Timorese Democratic Union (UDT), Joao Carrascalao, Father Francisco Fernandes, Jose Luis Guterres (Fretilin) as well as Ramos-Horta.
The same spokesman said that the public revelation of the telephone conversation on Tuesday between the Portuguese Foreign Minister Jaime Gama and resistance leader Konis Santana could cause "security problems" to the Timorese commander who is currently hidden in East Timor.
Gama said that Santana had transmitted "important information" during the 30-minute conversation from Australia.
Dili -- Six University of East Timor (UNTIM) students were brought to trial, last Wednesday (11/2). Aniceto Guterres Lopes and Vincente Daton Igon, lawyers from the HAK (Legal, Justice and Human Rights) Foundation accompanied the six students to the Court.
The district attorney accused the students of torturing three 511th Army battalion soldiers. The incident took place in the Dili Public Library yard, next to the UNTIM campus on 14 November 1997. Apparently, the brawl ignited a big mass-fight known as the bloody UNTIM Incident. Army and police SWAT units attacked UNTIM campus.
Five of the six students were Francisco de Deus, 20, Junival dos Santos Moniz, 23 Vincente Marques da Cruz, 21, and Domingos da Silva, 25, four of them were students from the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences. The other one was Silveiro Baptista Ximenes, 23, from Faculty of Teaching and Education. We missed one name.
On his accusation, District Attorney Ignatius Eko Purwanto mentioned the names of the soldiers being tortured. They were Suharto, Hamzah and Hanafi. He also mentioned, that the brawl had ignited a mass-fight between UNTIM students and members of C Company, 511th Army battalion. The latter sprayed the campus building with M-16 assault rifles. Many of the students were injured and the shooting caused big damage to the buildings. Windowpanes were broken into pieces.
Meanwhile, there are no clues of the authorities, to bring the C Company soldiers to the military court. "If the students were brought to trial, why are the authorities not bringing the C Company soldiers to trial? They illegally attacked our beloved campus, and resulting a big loss of campus facility and many of our friends were injured," said one UNTIM student bitterly.
Dili -- Security agents arrested two unidentified East Timorese youths, last Wednesday (11/2). The arrest took place near Dili State Court. At that time, the judge just began their hearing on the trial of six University of East Timor (UNTIM) students. They are accused of torturing Army soldiers in UNTIM campus. As MateBEAN had reported before, soldiers from nearby army battalion barrack attacked UNTIM campus and sprayed M-16 bullets to the building and damaging windowpanes and walls.
MateBEAN source in Dili said that the security officers found grenades on them. Police brought them to Dili Police Resort (Polres) Headquarters. Another MateBEAN sources doubted the police founding. "I doubted it. I tend to believe that they only brought posters to protest the trial. Such moments has always being used by East Timor freedom-fighters and anti- integration activists to demonstrate their feelings towards the Indonesian government," said one of our sources.
Up to this moment, there is still no information about the two. Journalists went to Polres HQ, but got nothing to confirm.
Dili -- Joao, 20, a citizen of Limanaru village, Raerobu, Sub-district Atabae, District Bobonaro, East Timor, had mysteriously disappeared from Guico Public Health Clinic (Puskesmas). An unknown armed group shot and kidnapped him.
Last Friday (6/2), Joao, Joaquim, 22, and Roberto, 27, the last two is citizens of Madebau village, Atabae, Sub-District Atabae, District Bobonaro, went to the sea to catch fish. On their way, near Loes Bridge, an unidentified-armed band ambushed them.
The unknown-armed unit asked for their ID Card. Unfortunately Joao had no ID at that time. Without hesitation, the band beat them mercilessly. Can not bear the pain, Joao tried to run away but one of the attacker shot him on his thigh and heel. Disregarding his pain, he swam across the river, went to the nearest Puskesmas, and got medical treatment.
At around 21.00 local time, the same band member picked him up by force. Up to this moment, there is no clue the whereabouts of Joao.
The people of Atabae village confirmed the incident. "We are still trying to find out Joao's whereabouts and we have reported the beating and the kidnapping to local government and police," said one citizen to a journalist visiting Atabae.
| Political/economic crisis |
Jenny Grant, Jakarta -- Rioters in West Java had admitted being paid to initiate unrest, police said yesterday.
Police in the town of Cirebon said their inquiries were focused on seven out of 85 people arrested during three days of attacks against Chinese-owned shops and property.
"We are still investigating the case," Colonel Sukandri, head of Cirebon police, told the Republika newspaper.
He said one of the suspects, identified as Su, had said he was paid 5,000 rupiah (HK$4.50) by two men who had instigated the riots.
Witnesses at riots in the town of Pamanukan said they saw individuals provoking the crowds.
The head of the Cirebon military, Lieutenant-Colonel R. Subagio, said he was "not yet ready to comment on the riot hiring".
Analysts said the Government may soon blame the riots on left- wing groups or ethnic Chinese businessmen accused of supporting outlawed groups.
The head of the Gemala Group, Sofjan Wanandi, is being interrogated by the military on suspicion of supporting the outlawed People's Democratic Party, a pro-democracy group whose leaders are in jail.
East Java police said they would shoot rioters on sight.
"Why not? That is justifiable; shoot on sight," said East Java police spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Soetrisno.
He said police were still searching for people spreading rumours that bombs had been planted in department stores across the province.
In further unrest, there were transport strikes in the towns of Bekasi, Cianjur, Labuan, Brebes, and Dili in East Timor on Monday by drivers calling on their companies to increase fares.
"There have been too many buses on our routes, so it is very hard for us to pay the 40,000 rupiah car hire each day," said a striking driver in Bekasi, east of Jakarta.
Drivers said the cost of spare parts had also increased while fares had remained the same, the Kompas daily reported. In the central Java town of Brebes and the East Timor capital Dili, police used trucks and minibuses to transport stranded passengers.
Transport strikes are expected to escalate when the Government removes expensive fuel subsidies, forcing up the price of basic transport.
For all the almost hysterical reporting of unrest in the press, no one has yet tried to create an overall picture of what has happened on the ground. The chronology below is preliminary and based largely on Indonesian-language sources.
The preliminary chronology helps us establish some important patterns. There is a serious escalation of violent mass action. But incidents remain isolated or clustered in defined areas. Very few people have been killed or injured, all of them rioters or bystanders rather than Chinese shopkeepers. Anti-Chinese feelings are not the primary reason for the violence. Riots are largely driven by economic frustration and not by religious or ethnic ideology. Anti-government feeling is related to local issues rather than national politics. There is almost no evidence of systematic anti-Chinese persecution sponsored or even permitted by the authorities. However, while security authorities have acted with more professionalism than we have seen from them in the past, they have clearly been stretched beyond their powers at times. So much so that their failure to protect the property of the mostly Chinese shopkeepers might constitute discrimination against them by default if not by intention.
The typical pattern for a riot is of an unpredictable, spontaneous or only locally coordinated outburst against local, mostly Chinese shopkeers over rising food prices.
Some outbreaks are part of a long-standing conflict with police/ military (eg. over official protection of gambling and prostitution, or over election fraud), in which shopkeepers suffer collateral damage. Some unrest occurs in areas with a history of it (Jember). Others have seen little unrest in the past (Rembang).
An attack in one location lasts only a few hours to a couple of days, but may be repeated if opportunity presents itself or if rioters feel no justice is done (eg to detainees).
A wave of attacks may spread around an entire region as an "epidemic", either as copycat affairs or because rioters fan out from a central location (the latter suggesting coordination) (eg. Jember, Rembang, Cirebon). Others are purely local, one-off affairs.
Property damage can be serious, but rioters are often surprisingly disciplined (some reports of goods piled in the street and burned as a symbol of moral outrage rather than being taken home as loot). There are literally no reports of bodily harm against the Chinese themselves. When listed as below, it comes as somewhat of a surprise to find that the whole of Indonesia is by no means in flames. An average traveller even in remote places would have a small chance of actually running into one of these events. They remain rare, while life goes on.
Assertions of Muslim (and hence anti-Chinese) identity are often strong -- slogans, grafiti -- though rarely reported in the mass media.
Local military or police often act late, probably because they are ill-equipped, might get into trouble if they kill people and anyway protecting Chinese is an unpopular cause. This constitutes a serious neglect, even if it may not be intentional.
Waves of riots such as this have occurred before. The previous one occurred in the run-up to the national parliamentary elections late in 1996 and early 97. They are related to periods of economic and political stress. Politics do come into it (hence the conspiracy theories of official permission to hit Chinese), but the connection is difficult to establish. Anti-Chinese riots took severe forms in 1965 and 1945-49, and at that time, unlike now, many were killed.
Not all incidents of mass unrest are essentially anti-Chinese. During the same time period there was also a riot against Muslim migrants in Sentani (Irian Jaya) (2 January, not described here and not directly related to the economic crisis). The incidents in Bandung and Jember (both in Java) in January, and Praya (Lombok) in February, have a significant element of anti-police/ military anger. Chinese property damage was in these cases collateral damage in a wider conflict.
Rumours of conspiracies are more often heard than proven. But we have some good evidence in the current wave that certain powerful elements within the government are happy to divert attention away from its own role in the economic crisis towards Chinese scapegoats. This way of splitting the opposition or making a point within an intra-elite conflict is callous, dangerous and irresponsible (the Sofyan Wanandi story). It is a matter not of stirring up fanaticism but of taking advantage of existing tension by momentarily taking off the repressive brakes. This issue needs to be taken up in another paper (see also a forthcoming report from New York-based Human Rights Watch Asia).
1.1 Jember and surrounds, East Java (12-16 January 1998) This is the first unrest directly linked to the rising food prices caused by the monetary crisis. It is an "epidemic" of sporadic violence that sweeps across the eastern tip of East Java, linked by mobs on motorcycles, that goes on for more than two weeks but peaks over these five days. There is property damage but no one is killed. Authorities make arrests but can do little to prevent the action (there are no units of the mobile police Brimob trained in riot control in the area). (A map will be useful in reading the next section!).
3 January: Tamanan, between Jember and Bondowoso in East Java. Hundreds of people wanting to destroy a restaurant they suspect of hosting prostitutes clash with troops and police. This is one of a surprisingly large number of clashes with the authorities all over Java in recent months. No inventory has been made of these clashes, but they probably number in the dozens in the last six months. These incidents provide a backdrop of violence that sometimes spills over into action against Chinese shopkeepers.
The issues are various -- perceived official protection of prostitution and gambling, perceived unfair treatment of roadside sellers or of illegal timber fellers in state forests. Police stations are often destroyed in these actions. A handful of injuries and deaths often occur.
These incidents rarely make it into the English language media. One that did was a large riot in Bandung on 5 January following mishandled official attempts to clean up roadside stalls.
In the Jember area, long-running tension between small-town Muslims and military/ police centres around two issues: land, and fraud during 1997 election. There was virtual guerrilla warfare between farmers from Jenggawah and the military over land in 1995. Jember saw a riot over election fraud committed against the Islamic party PPP in June 1997.
Some of the frustrated Tamanan actors may have been involved in the following events too.
12 January: Kalibaru, between Banyuwangi and Jember to the west. A demonstration against food price rises by a convoy of hundreds of motorcycles tours the area for 100km ends here.
13 January: Kalibaru. Thousands take part in a "Robin Hood" action to force stores to sell basic foodstuffs at the old prices in Kalibaru. Police persuade the Chinese shopowners it is better to sell food at old prices than to have the mob destroy their stores, so they did! Similar action is threatened in other towns in the area but shopkeepers do not feel compelled to comply. Jember area, west of Banyuwangi. On the night of 13-14 January about a dozen food and other stores are damaged by mobs. Police and military restore order the following morning. There are no injuries.
15 January: Jember. The second biggest department store (over 700 employees) is destroyed by fire. Police later deny it was the work of vandals and blame an electrical fault.
16 January: Balung, south of Jember. At least four other stores are plundered. The action follows the arrival of hundreds of motorcyclists from north of the town.
Jember. Shopkeepers agree to sell cooking oil and other basic foodstuffs at old prices, while others shut up shop in fear but see no action.
Bagorejo, near Banyuwangi. Late in the evening another food store is looted. Security authorities prevent further looting.
26 January: Pakisaji, near Banyuwangi. A mob attacks a rice mill but manages only to damage some vehicles before being driven away by inhabitants at the mill.
Police say 32 are being held after the week of unrest in the Jember area. Most are low-income Madurese, long alienated from goverment in this volatile and densely populated area.
3 February: Kasiyan village near Jember. Twenty men armed with knives destroy one store but are stopped by locals from looting goods.
1.2 Rembang and surrounds, Central and East Java (26-30 January 1998)
26 January: The small town of Kragan near Rembang on Central Java's north coast. Fishermen worried about a 300% rise in the price of kerosene, essential for their fishing lamps, invade late at night. Several thousand rioters, mostly fishermen from the two villages of Karang Lincak and Karang Jarak, march into Kragan along the beach around midnight in at least three waves, vandalise two churches and about 15 Chinese stores. Military restore order after about 3am.
27 January: Sarang, a little to the east of Kragan. In a similar midnight action, about a thousand rioters damage 9 stores. Food stocks are looted and taken home.
28 January: Rembang. Rioters again damage stores and some churches here as well as in the small towns of Sluke (a daylight action), and Banjarjo (midnight action as before, this time by mobs in trucks from Bulu to the east).
29 January: Padangan. Authorities prevent a similar riot.
Police say 21 are arrested altogether, including impoverished fishermen, unemployed and high school students. These were arrested well after the action was over.
One newspaper story reports fishermen returning goods they had looted in the heat of the moment to the store owners via the village head, saying they realised they had done wrong.
28-30 January: Similar actions then spread along the coastal road eastward as far as Tuban in East Java. In all these actions there are no deaths or injuries.
Tuban area to the east of Rembang. Thousands riot coinciding with the Islamic holiday Idul Fitri -- most unusual. They are angry because the food to celebrate with has become too expensive. These rioters are not fishermen but come from the agricultural hinterland to Bulu, Tambakboyo, Jatirogo and Palang, walking or by motorcycle. They break down front doors of Chinese- owned shops, bring out the contents and then destroy them on the road. Police say the action is planned, as rioters held a mass meeting in the Tambakboyo shopping centre on 28 January.
5 February: Police say 152 are in detention from the various riots around East Java. Over a hundred of them will be charged with property offences.
1.3 Cirebon and surrounds, West and Central Java (12-14 February 1998)
12 February: Three days of unrest take place in towns scattered for nearly 200km along the coastal highway on Java's north coast either side of Cirebon. The incidents appear to be copycat actions spread by word of mouth along the highway, and are clustered around Jatiwangi and Pamanukan in the west, and Brebes in the east. Altogether hundreds of shops are damaged or destroyed in dozens of locations. Details remain unclear. Chinese shop keepers are the most frequent (not the only) target, but no Chinese are killed or injured. Some Chinese are given shelter at police stations. At least four rioters or bystanders die either accidentally or shot by security forces, as described below.
Jatiwangi, on the highway to Bandung to the west of Cirebon. Around 4am, several shops, including a motorcycle and apparently a bicycle shop, are burned down. Electronics and car parts shops are also damaged and a roof-tile factory is burned down. About thirty houses are also damaged. The rioters are pedicab drivers and unskilled day labourers angry about price rises of basic commodities. Sporadic rioting continues all day. Three are arrested and the riot mostly brought under control by troops brought in from Cirebon shortly before noon.
Kuningan, to the south of Cirebon. About 8pm a fire starts in the market, destroying 100 stalls (probably not owned by Chinese).
13 February: Traffic along the narrow coastal highway, always heavy, is now particularly heavy as people return to Jakarta from the Idul Fitri holiday. But all traffic is stopped by rioting from Thursday evening 12 February.
Pamanukan, Subang regency, on the coastal highway west of Cirebon halfway to Jakarta. The worst riot of this epidemic breaks out after police shoot and kill a 28-year old man named Arta bin Tipan. He becomes the first casualty in the current wave of violence, which has seen almost no bloodshed. Police say there is no shoot-to-kill order and promise to investigate the shooting.
Pamanukan. Dozens of shops, places of worship, and doctor's surgeries are burned down in all-day rioting here as well as in Ciasem and Sukamandi to its west. Police arrest 266 and declare a night time curfew -- the only one applied throughout the riot- affected area.
Meanwhile in Losari, a small town located on Java's north coastal highway east of Cirebon towards Brebes, on the border between West and East Java. After apparently some sporadic action the previous evening, trouble begins in front of the markets. During the mid-morning action about 500 angry rioters bring out basic commodities from shops onto the streets, where they are burned (not usually taken home).
After breaking for Friday prayers (sic!), a much larger groups of rioters of over 1000 return to the Losari markets and push through the military trying to control them, throwing stones at troops and at more shops. Police persuade the crowd not to set fire to shops because it might spread to houses.
Rioters spread out from Losari to neighbouring Tanjung and Bulakamba. Riot police (Brimob) fire rubber bullets and tear gas -- the first time such equipment has been used (it is not widely available and most troops and police are not trained in their use). More than 60 shops are damaged by stones. Six are arrested. At least seven are taken to hospital -- apparently rioters injured by security forces. Two are apparently killed by stray bullets: Tarmin (22) and Amron (24).
Just after midnight on 13 February a bus is burned and two cars damaged by young rioters, apparently near Cirebon. Traffic begins to flow again under police escort on Saturday 14 February. West Cirebon. Passengers angry they could not get public transport start throwing rocks, leading security forces to put up a barbed wire barricade to stop the action spreading. The barricade is removed after the crowd was given transport in military trucks.
14 February: Tension and sporadic incidents continue around the area. Few details are available. Margasari, south of Tegal near Brebes. A riot breaks out mid- morning in which seven shops are damaged and their contents thrown on the street and burned.
2 February: Donggala. A similar action takes place around midnight the following night, but is more quickly brought under control. No one is arrested and there are no reports of injuries.
Students in Donggala had demonstrated against price rises on 26 January. On 11 February they also demonstrate in Palu, but are stopped by security authorities who arrested and beat up 34 students. All are later released.
2 February: Ujung Pandang, South Sulawesi. Hundreds of people damage shops, both Chinese and non-Chinese, late at night until stopped by police firing warning shots. The city remains under tight security control and shops reopen within a day or two. Ujung Pandang saw a serious riot in September last year.
2 February: Pasuruan, on the coast southeast of Surabaya in East Java. For about 3 hours in the middle of the day a mob damage about 8 houses, a shop and a truck over the price of kerosene. The main victim, a shopkeeper named Wachid, does not seem to have been Chinese. Thirty are arrested by security authorities who intervene, all but 3 are released soon after.
7 February: Bima, West Sumbawa. A crowd of about 100 demonstrating about rising prices before the local assembly house begins to riot after they are told they cannot all enter the assembly building. They damage shops and cars, but police deny the number of shops affected is as high as 60. Another report says 3 shops are destroyed and 20 shops and a hotel in town damaged. Fifteen arrested. Police deny there is looting. A curfew is imposed.
8 February: Ende, Flores. At least 1000 Muslim Florinese attack Chinese-owned shops, burning down 21 shops and damaging and looting 71 others in two different parts of town. People became angry after being forced to queue for rice at the Dahlia shop the previous evening (Saturday). On Sunday morning 8 February, thousands descend on the main shopping area while shops are closed. When rioters break electrical equipment in the Dahlia shop they start a fire that spreads to neighbouring shops too. One person dies of shock watching the riot. Local troops are out of town, and the riot is not brought under control until riot police fly in from Kupang later that afternoon. A night curfew is imposed. Rioters send a delegation to the regent asking Ende officials to lower food prices. Fifty six arrested for looting. Chinese shop-owners take shelter at the local military barracks.
Towns all over Java, including Jakarta. Scattered rumours of another riot about to take place are enough to close all shops in many places, especially in the vicinity of actual riots further east.
13 February: North Sumatran town of Padangsidempuan. Rioters angered by rising prices for vehicle spare parts damage or destroy 50 shops with stones in the evening. A big security presence prevents further trouble the next day.
14 February: Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi. Two thousand high school and university students demonstrating against rising food prices begin stoning shops. 37 Are arrested. A delegation presented a petition to the provincial government urging firm action to control prices. Thousands of Kendari university students had clashed with police the previous December over an internal university conflict. Another demonstration and riot breaks out here on 19 February.
14 February: Praya, Central Lombok (east of Bali). A riot breaks out about 10 am. Two are shot to death by panicky police (Sahrun, 30, and Fadli, 18), while 9 are injured, some seriously. Police arrest 8. The riot starts after hundreds of onlookers in the market area are whipped into a frenzy by a travelling medicine seller who explains the causes of the economic crisis to them. Their anger is primarily directed at security officers standing nearby, leading the latter to shoot. Security forces had been prepared for trouble for three days and there were a lot of armed officers on the streets. It is market day and the town is full of villagers from outside. Crowds also damage three shops and a bank, but damage is minor. The crowd breaks into many small groups that soon number thousands of members bent on confronting police and military. @ABRIDGED = [Gerry van Klinken, editor, Inside Indonesia magazine]
James Woodford -- The Chief of the Defence Force, General John Baker, the Foreign Minister, Mr Downer, and the Defence Minister, Mr McLachlan, expressed serious concerns yesterday about the strategic implications of the economic turmoil gripping Asia.
General Baker made his comments in an outspoken interview before flying to Indonesiawhere he will spend four days assessing the country's political and economic problems.
His trip will coincide with the handover of the commander of Indonesia's armed forces, General Feisal Tanjung, to his successor, General Wirianto.
General Baker will hold meetings with senior defence officials and officers on the unrest in Indonesia.
"I have a concern about Indonesia, their ability to cope and the effect on the stability of the region," he said.
"I just hope that Indonesia can cope with the pressures they find themselves in. It is a very difficult problem for Indonesia to handle."
General Baker said the economic crisis was forcing a reassessment of Australia's strategic interests in the region.
"Clearly, while I am thereit's an opportunity to talk to Indonesians about their concerns and for me to make assessments of how it affects us." He plans to discuss the crisis with defence officials from Singapore, Malaysia and New Zealand.
In a speech to the Australian College of Defence and Strategic Studies, the Minister for Defence, Mr McLachlan, said yesterday the impact of the crisis couldnot be dismissed lightly.
"One should not overlook the possibility that the financial crisis could have flow-on effects into political, economic and social stability," he said.
However, he maintained that Australia's Strategic Policy, the review released in December last year, was still valid in the medium to long term.
Mr Downer said a stable Indonesia was important to Australia and that an unstable Indonesia was bad for regional security. "If there's a significant deterioration in the Indonesian economy that is going to lead to a significant upsurge of civil unrest in Indonesia." One fear that officials in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade hold privately is that the Soeharto Government will overreact to civil unrest.
Mr Downer appealed to Indonesia to act moderately. "I hope if there is an increase in civil unrest that the authorities will handle the difficulties that will arise in a sensitive and appropriate way ... and with full consideration for human rights."
The Opposition spokesman on foreign affairs, Mr Brereton, said Australia should not be distracted by our involvement in Iraq.
No country is more important to Australia than Indonesia," he said. "The Howard Government's response to the growing economic and social turmoil in Indonesia falls well short of the effort required to safeguard Australia's economic, security and humanitarian interests and our stake in this critically important bilateral relationship."
Michael Dorgan, Jakarta -- It's 5:30 a.m. and a new day is dawning. The man many here would like to see as this country's next president has been rousted from a short sleep at a spartan Islamic center and is being rushed to the airport for his next campaign stop.
Just weeks ago, openly running against President Suharto would have seemed inconceivable. But with Indonesia in the throes of a financial crisis and worsening social unrest, Suharto's opponents, though lacking a clear plan and organized movement, think the time is right to mount a bold and risky challenge to Asia's longest ruling autocrat.
"I have to be realistic because to challenge Suharto is not an easy game," Amien Rais says in thickly accented but precise English. "He is still very powerful, and he still controls the armed forces and the most influential and biggest political party. And the chance to defeat him is, of course, very, very little."
Very little, indeed, unless extraordinary events intervene -- which is what Rais and other Suharto opponents are counting on.
After 32 years in office, President Suharto's grip on Indonesia's political process is so firm that Rais (pronounced Rye-is) and the only other prominent presidential challenger, Megawati Sukarnoputri, have no chance whatsoever of winning next month's election. Their only hope -- one fraught with danger for themselves and their nation -- is that the election will be negated by the country's worsening financial crisis. The scenario they envision is this:
Social unrest already erupting in Jakarta and other cities will deepen and spread, leading ultimately to irrepressible riots that will drive Suharto from office. Rais and Megawati, who represent diverse constituencies but who have formed what they call a "moral coalition," will then ride the wave of discontent all the way to the presidential palace. There, they will set up an interim government and stage free and open elections.
But theirs is a treacherous course. Suharto this week ordered the military to take "stern action" against anyone who threatens the existing order. This leaves little doubt that if the opposition leaders' challenge moves from words to actions, they and their followers will be swiftly suppressed.
Rais, an American-educated university professor who heads Indonesia's 28-million-member Muhammadiyah Muslim cultural organization, and Megawati, who in 1996 was ousted by the government as head of the 20-million-member Indonesian Democratic Party, both have been outspoken in their criticisms, sending volley after volley of verbal missiles into the Suharto camp.
But they are vague about how they will force him from office. They also are vague about what specific policies they would promote if elected. Both call for greater democracy and rule of law, but are skimpy on details.
In this time of great economic uncertainty, that causes unease among some potential followers, who note that neither has any experience in governance. Some dismiss Megawati as a purely inspirational figure with few political skills, while others worry that Rais, whose organization operates Islamic schools throughout the country, might promote an Islamic agenda at the expense of Indonesia's minorities.
Subagio Anam, one of Megawati's top aides, said much of the vagueness and ambiguity surrounding her and Rais are due to circumstances. Both, he said, are constrained in how far they can go in challenging Suharto.
"We cannot create (an organized opposition movement) ourselves," he said. "If we go to the streets, we will be arrested immediately. But if there is spontaneous unrest, then we will jump." Megawati, in an interview at her spacious south Jakarta estate, said risk is not the only reason the opposition movement lacks form. She said Indonesia's financial and political crisis is so acute that there's no time to develop a comprehensive strategy or formal structure.
"What we're trying to build is a kind of pro-democracy mechanism," she said. "There's no time to build an organization." But what is a "pro-democracy mechanism?"
Channeling outrage
Many Suharto critics here fret that public outrage over the injustices and excesses of his regime will dissipate into Indonesia's hot and humid air unless opposition leaders channel it into a coherent and effective movement.
"When my friends get together and talk, I'm always convinced there's going to be a revolution tomorrow," said one young dissident who recently completed a two-year prison term for criticizing Suharto. "But then I go home, take a shower and go to bed. And when I wake up, nothing's happened."
That dissident, along with about three-dozen others, showed up at Megawati's home one recent evening for a discussion group that Megawati turned into a pep rally. In a tone alternately sweet and scolding, she told the group it was time to stop talking and start acting.
A few days earlier, Rais also called for action in a meeting with representatives of more than a dozen student, labor, religious and democracy groups. "Think big, start small, act now," he told them.
But both Megawati and Rais stop short of saying just what sort of action they would like to see. Supporters fear the lack of a clear strategy greatly increases chances that anticipated riots will lead to chaos and misguided attacks on the nation's ethnic- Chinese minority, who are widely resented for their economic dominance. Hundreds of thousands of them were slaughtered in the social upheaval surrounding Suharto's rise to power in 1965.
An anthropologist noted that the word "amok" -- defined in Webster's dictionary as "to rush about in a frenzy to kill" -- is of Indonesian origin. "Our culture has no middle ground of being critical and civilized," she said. "We are either amok or totally accepting."
If Rais and Megawati fail to lead their followers step-by-step toward a more democratic society, she said, then they must accept partial responsibility for the blood that will flow in the riots that they hope will sweep Suharto from office.
So far Suharto seems secure. His popularity may be low, but he is still very much in control. He selects, directly or indirectly, virtually every person serving in a position of authority, right down to the heads of villages. Potential threats to his rule have been so ruthlessly suppressed that up until a few months ago, the mere public suggestion that he step down could land the critic in prison.
Crack in armor
But the collapse of Indonesia's economy has left a crack in Suharto's political armor. Mounting disgust over the widespread corruption that has contributed to the country's financial woes has spilled onto the front pages of the nation's newspapers, igniting an unprecedented debate over whether the ailing 76-year-old leader should be given a seventh five-year term.
If put to a public vote, the outcome would seem certain. From the corporate executives in Jakarta's high-rise office towers to the peasants in the rice paddies of West Sumatra, Indonesians seem nearly unanimous in their disapproval of Asia's longest reigning ruler.
No such votes are held, however. Presidential candidates must be nominated by approved political parties, and the winner is selected by the 1,000-member national assembly, almost all members of which are handpicked by Suharto or his supporters. So when Suharto recently announced his willingness to serve another term, the only matter to be decided was who he would choose for vice president.
Louise Williams, Jakarta -- Indonesia's ruling Golkar Party has announced that the controversial Technology Minister, Dr Jusuf Habibie, is its vice-presidential choice, a move which is certain to further undermine international business confidence, as rural rioting continues and the rupiah weakens.
The chairman of Golkar and Parliamentary Speaker, Harmoko, announced he would withdraw his name as a vice-presidential candidate "in the national interest", leaving only Dr Habibie as the ruling party's choice in the presidential and vice-presidential elections next month. Indonesia's two most senior posts are decided by the largely hand-picked Parliament and President Soeharto is expected to be elected unopposed for a seventh five-year term when Parliament convenes between March 1 and 11.
His vice-president traditionally has been decided behind the scenes and President Soeharto's personal choice is then rubber stamped by the 1,000 members of Parliament.
When rumours first circulated that Dr Habibie would become vice- president, money markets dumped the rupiah, forcing the currency to its lowest level of 17,000 to the US dollar.
There have been concerns over his record for supporting wasteful state industries and ambitious high tech projects in a nation struggling with poverty, food riots and ballooning unemployment.
The rupiah plunged from 8,600 to the US dollar yesterday morning to 10,700, when trading began, following riots at the weekend which left five people dead and at least 15 seriously injured when troops opened fire on mobs in three towns.
International investors have been looking for positive signs that economic reforms in Indonesia will be implemented to overcome the deep economic crisis which has triggered food riots across Java and the outer islands.
Police said rioting continued in several West Java townships overnight where scores of shops were destroyed. Buses were cancelled in parts of Central Java after mobs stoned passing vehicles.
| Environment/land disputes |
Indonesian Forestry Minister Djamaluddin said in January that Indonesia could experience a second year of prolonged drought this year because of the El Nino effect. His warnings are supported by experts at the Integrated Forest Fires Management project in East Kalimantan (IFFM). El Nino phenomenon is an upwelling of warmer water in the Pacific Ocean that disrupts global climate patterns. Typically the main dry season in Indonesia is May - October.
Last year's droughts were the worst in decades. Although the wet season has arrived in Sumatra and Java (including the capital, Jakarta), it has been shorter than usual and eastern Indonesia has had little or no rain. There has been famine in the highlands of West Papua for several months. Indonesian forest experts and NGOs are concerned about the risk of forest fires. The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has said an estimated one million hectares (2.5 million acres) of peat was still burning in Indonesia.
Indonesia is in the throes of a severe economic and political crisis and the central government has taken noaction to prevent further outbreaks of fires. Massive foreign debts and the instability of the rupiah will limit opportunities to buy in assistance from abroad. Local authorities do not have the funds or equipment to tackle large-scale blazes and there are already serious water shortages in some provinces.
No official figures for the cost of damage caused by last year's fires have been released, but it is estimated that over of 2 million hectares of forest were destroyed. Less than 100 million hectares of Indonesia are now covered with forest. The 1997 fires (and those which have occurred on a lesser scale every year for the last decade) are widely believed to be caused largely by plantation and transmigration companies clearing land by burning on a large scale. Also fires started by settlers and traditional forest farmers to clear land for cultivation quickly spread and got out of control in the dry conditions.
Summary of fires
23rd Jan: Although some parts of Central Sulawesi have had rain, the Palu Valley is still very dry. It rained briefly in mid- December, but there has been none since. Sources fear food shortages. (pers com)
24th Jan: After some light rain in December and early January, East Kalimantan is now very dry. There are reports of many new forest fires breaking out. The situation looks even more dangerous than the period leading up to the 1982/3 Great Fire of Borneo. The authorities have used violence in several places to stop traditional farmers from preparing their fields by burning. NGOs cannot monitor the situation in the field due to a clamp- down on their activities in advance of the Presidential election in March.
25th Jan: The Indonesian news agency, Antara, said on Sunday that satellite images made by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed hundreds of "hot spots," or areas affected by bushfires in various parts of Kalimantan on Borneo. Many of the hot spots were located at the Bukit Suharto forest reserve in East Kalimantan province. Motorists had complained of poor visibility on roads near the reserve, it said. (Reuters)
26th Jan: Satellite data shows that hundreds of hotspots have appeared in East Kalimantan, on the island of Borneo, and more than 200 on Sumatra since the end of December, when the monsoon ended prematurely. In East Kalimantan an oil company had to evacuate 50 people from a rig surrounded by blazing brush. The huge peat swamps in South Sumatra which produced much of last year's noxious smog are starting to burn again. (The Guardian UK)
27th Jan: A report has been sent from the AusAid office in Dili to the Australian Government requesting urgent assistance for thousands of Timorese hit by failing crops and the increase in price of basic necessities, such as rice, on the back of the Indonesian currency crisis. The report states that the worst hit region is the island of Atauro, 32km off the coast of Dili. (The Australian)
28th Jan: The president of East Timor's local assembly announced the administration of Dili would send ten tons of rice to alleviate the famine on the East Timorese island of Atauro facing food shortages. He said there was no cause for alarm since "the rain that started falling this week would minimise the effects of this year's bad agricultural production.Other sources were not so optimistic, in view of shortages of rice and corn in the city markets. (Lusa)
28th Jan: A consortium of NGOs in East Kalimantan issued a press release calling on the local government to take preventative action against the effect of the fires and Indonesia's economic crisis on the local community who are already suffering rising prices and the threat of crop failure/food shortage. (translated DtE 5/2/98)
28th Jan: NOAA satellite images showed 93 'hot spots' in East Kalimantan.The governor of the province has put staff on 'red alert'. The main areas at risk are Kutai National Park, the Bukit Suharto reforestation area and forests at Sungai Wein, Samboja (Kutai). 23 of the 'hot spots' in Bukit Suharto are coal seams which have been smoldering since 1982. Fires in forests, scrub and cultivated land have been reported from Samarinda, Sebulu, Muara Kaman, Muara Wahau, Bontang, Sangatta and Berau. The total area affected is not known. (Kompas Online)
28th Jan: Due to low rainfall, river levels are low in East Kalimantan. The public drinking water company can no longer supply the coastal city of Samarinda due to salt water intrusion up the River Mahakam. It hopes to supply water by tanker and by drilling new wells. (Kompas Online)
3rd Feb: Fire has damaged at least 369ha of forest and scrub in East Kalimantan, according to the local government monitoring team. NOAA satellite shows at least 150 'hot spots' scattered throughout the province. In Kutai district the following timber/plantation companies' land is affected: PT Inhutani I, PT ITCI, PT Oceanis Timber Product, PT Sumber Mas V, PT Sumber Mas II, PT Persada Bumi Hijau, PT Porodisa Trading Indonesia and PT GPI/Kiani Lestari. In Berau and Bulungan districts there are fires in the concessions of PT Gunung Raya Utama Timber, PT Inhutani I and PT Indah Meranti Permata Timor Coy.
4th Feb: Concerned individuals in the island of West Sumba appeal for help. Crops have failed due to little or no rainfall, and attacks by insect pests and fungi. People have no food and are selling their livestock. The situation is especially bad in the Kodi area. (apakabar@clark.net)
9th Feb: Journalists and members of the National Disasters Co- ordination surveyed the extent of forest fires in East Kalimantan by helicopter. The worst hit area is the coast part of Kutai National Park where almost all the forest has been burnt. There was also serious fire damage along the Bontang-Sangatta road and along the road south of Bontang in the Protected Forest areas of Bontang, Tanjungsantan and Muarabadak. The Governor of East Kalimantan said 1,813 hectares of forest had been burnt and that this figure would increase as fires were still breaking out. (Kompas)
11th Feb: Minister of Forestry Djamaluddin summonded two East Kalimantan plantation companies to Jakarta. The companies, which were not named, are thought to have cleared their land by burning. (Kompas Online)
16th Feb: Since early February there have been riots in many Indonesian towns over rising food prices and shortages of nine basic household goods. Unusually, some have been in small towns on outer islands including Donggala, Ende and Bima. Others have been in quarters of major cities (e.g. Ujung Pandang). Most have been in small towns in Java : Rembang, Pasuruan, Jember, Tuban, Subang. Now unrest is reported from towns within 200km of Jakarta: in Jatiwangi (12/2/98); Losari (12/2/98); Ciasem (12/2/98); Rangkasbitung (13/2/98); and Serpong (14/2/98). (ekspos@hotmail.com)
| Human rights/law |
There is still no news of the whereabouts of Pius Lustrilanang, the student activist from the People's Democratic Alliance (Aldera) who has been missing since 4 February 1998.
Amnesty International is also concerned for the safety of another activist, Desmond J Mahesa, who is the Director of the Legal Aid Institute (Lembaga Bantuan Hukum) Nusantara in Jakarta. He was last seen on 3 February. Eight military intelligence officers are reported to have visited his office the day before he was last seen. Concerns about Desmond's whereabouts have been conveyed to
Indonesia's National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM). There are fears that as in the case of Pius Lustrilanang, Desmond may have been arrested by the security forces and is being held in incommunicado detention.
| Politics |
Jakarta -- Landslide support for B.J. Habibie failed to push former environment minister Emil Salim out of the race for the vice presidency yesterday.
Emil, who has strong support from fellow academics, pro-democracy activists and the public alike, will continue his bid for the post in an "exercise of democracy".
His prime intention, he said, is not to clinch the chair, but to set an example of how the principles of democracy should be exercised and respected.
Unlike the heavyweight candidates, who rely on backing from the factions in the People's Consultative Assembly, Emil is tapping into support from outside the establishment through campaigning for clean governance and economic reform.
Emil called a news conference only hours after Harmoko, leader of the dominant Golkar functional group, stepped aside in the vice presidential race, making way for his rival Habibie.
"My candidacy is basically a moral movement," Emil told journalists yesterday.
At about the same time, the tiny Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) also --predictably -- fielded Habibie as its sole candidate, following the Moslem oriented United Development Party (PPP) which threw its weight behind the technology tsar, Monday.
Emil, renowned for his integrity, has backing from figures in myriad religious, social and professional backgrounds calling themselves Gema Madani, or Echo of Civil Society.
Over the past week, the group has collected 128 signatories of support for Emil among which are those of economist Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, Moslem intellectual Nurcholish Madjid, Rahmi Hatta and Nelly Adam Malik, the wives of former vice presidents Mohammad Hatta and Adam Malik, consumer activist Zoemrotin K.S. women rights activist Saparinah Sadli, former envoy to the U.S. Arifin M. Siregar, economist Sadli, former OPEC secretary general Subroto, rights activist Asmara Nababan and Golkar legislator Albert Hasibuan.
At the top of his agenda are economic reforms aimed at improving Indonesia's competitiveness in the global market by eradicating corruption and monopolistic practices. On political reforms, Emil declined to give details, saying only that if economic reforms were consistently implemented, political improvements would follow.
He is well aware that his chances of being elected vice president are slim because each faction in the 1,000-strong People's Consultative Assembly had already named their chosen candidates.
"My point is to show how the ABC of democracy should be implemented. People should retain the freedom to express their ideas and participate in the decision-making process," he said. "I know the Assembly has its standard procedure in electing the new president and vice president, but people should be free to contribute ideas."
Emil said the current economic calamity occurred because the (economic) fundamentals, which he helped to lay 30 years ago, had not been adjusted to the changing times.
He warned that the government's plan to set up the Currency Board System (CBS) and to peg the rupiah to the U.S. dollar would not bring about the desired results unless it was supported with economic reforms.
The system, he argued, would need huge foreign exchange reserves and a steady inflow of foreign investments to succeed, neither of which are available under the current situation.
"The current crisis cannot be handled with a 'business as usual' approach," he added.
Emil said he would have no objection to stage what he called "wrestling of ideas" with any figures wanting to test his agenda.
Yang Razali Kassim, Singapore -- In total defiance of the financial markets, and acting on a script by President Suharto, the top brass of ABRI, the Indonesian military, further consolidated their ranks this week behind Research and Technology Minister B J Habibie as possible heir apparent.
The first major step to ensure continuity of support for a Suharto-Habibie leadership combination comes in the form of a changing of the guard at the top. The transfer of power from General Feisal Tanjung to General Wiranto as commander-in-chief is from one Habibie supporter to another.
The ascendancy of Gen Wiranto is said to have been approved by President Suharto after the Indonesian leader was certain that the 50-year-old army chief of staff would be committed to a Suharto-Habibie combination for the Number 1 and 2 positions for the next five years starting March 1998.
Apparently, the general, who is a Suharto loyalist, has explicitly conveyed his support to the research minister. So has another key military figure, Major-General Prabowo, the special forces chief who is also Mr Suharto's son-in-law.
Gen Wiranto will, in the coming presidential election, play an important role in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) which will elect the president on March 10 and the vice-president the next day. He has been entrusted to look into legislations that will give special emergency powers to the President should this be required suddenly.
Gen Feisal, whose service Mr Suharto extended for three consecutive years after he reached the mandatory retirement age of 55 in 1994, is German-trained, like Dr Habibie. Speculation that he is slated to become the coordinating minister for defence and security in the new cabinet to be formed after the presidential election may well turn out to be true.
Mr Suharto is expected to officially name Gen Wiranto, 50, as Indonesian Armed Forces Chief at a ceremony next week. The handover, coming days after this week's meeting of ABRI commanders, or Rapim ABRI, suggests that the new commander is obliged to commit himself to the collective resolve of the military top brass. And as far as the choice of vice-president is concerned, ABRI has decided apparently to stand behind Dr Habibie, whatever the financial markets say.
"The name of the candidate for vice-president is already in our pocket. It's now left to the ABRI faction in the MPR to fight for it," ABRI's spokesman Brigadier-General A Wahab Mokodongan said in Jakarta. Significantly, one of Gen Feisal's final acts as commander-in- chief was to effect the 76-year-old President's gameplan for the presidential and vice-presidential elections. It is understood that Gen Feisal met Mr Suharto and asked him unequivocally who he desired as a running mate. Mr Suharto, in no uncertain terms this time, said his preference was for his research minister. The President had also earlier appointed Dr Habibie to head the executive arm of the board of patrons in the ruling Golkar.
But to obscure ABRI's support for Dr Habibie, the military may, with the President's consent, float two candidates fitting the new criteria of a vice-president at home with science and technology. If this goes as planned, the nominee, apart from Dr Habibie, could well be Hartarto, the coordinating minister for production and distribution. Internally however, Dr Habibie will be known as the calon utama, or main candidate.
Should the candidatures of Dr Habibie and Mr Hartarto proceed as scripted, the race for the Number 2 would, on paper, look more crowded than usual as Golkar has made it known it will nominate its chairman Harmoko as well.
But some analysts say ABRI's stand will effectively also reduce the chances of other contenders for vice-president, a post which has become critical this time because whoever holds it stands a good chance of succeeding President Suharto.
Not surprisingly, Ginanjar Kartasasmita, the minister in charge of development planning, made it known earlier this week that he would not wish to run. Although Mr Harmoko seems keen to stand, Mr Suharto has apparently intimated that he will have to first step down as MPR Speaker, which would be a big loss of influence and stature should he fail to win the vice-presidency.
It is believed that other moves are being planned with the blessings of the President to secure the route to the top for Dr Habibie. For instance, a new Habibie-centred alliance may be encouraged with other possible contenders such as the President's daughter Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana or Tutut, and Information Minister Hartono, the former army chief of staff.
Significantly, the military's regrouping around the Suharto- Habibie combination is a departure from ABRI's traditional support for a military man to take the top job in the land. ABRI's acceptance of the growing desire for more civilian rule means it is ready to also forgo support for current vice- president and former commander-in-chief Try Sutrisno, whom some business leaders, such as beleaguered tycoon Sofyan Wanandi, want to support in order to block Dr Habibie's chances.
ABRI's stand is in sharp contrast to comments made by several analysts that the military is deeply divided over the question of succession, particularly over the choice of Dr Habibie. Those close to the research minister say such views tend to ignore the hierarchical relationship between the military and Mr Suharto as supreme commander of the armed forces.
President Suharto, a retired general, has presented himself as a soldier on national duty in a time of crisis. As he has been nominated for yet another term and has agreed to serve again, his choice of running mate becomes a matter of obligatory support by the military rank-and-file.
The question of supporting Dr Habibie was not a difficult problem once Mr Suharto himself had indicated his preference. Constitutionally, the elected president can veto any candidate he is not comfortable with.
Indeed, Mr Suharto exercised this right in the 1988 elections when he forced Jailani "John" Naro, the leader of the Muslim-based party, PPP, out of the race in favour of State Secretary Sudharmono.
Mr Suharto is fully aware of market sentiment concerning his choice of Dr Habibie. The rupiah plunged when the Indonesian leader some time ago indicated his preference for the minister as his new running mate by announcing new criteria for candidates contesting the post.
But the fact that he remains firm in his choice means that Mr Suharto is not going to succumb to market sentiment on what he sees as essentially a matter for the nation to determine. He has consistently said, even under pressure to be clearer about his succession plans, that Indonesians must live by the Constitution and that the Constitution requires the national leadership to be determined by the MPR.
Suggestions that the rupiah will collapse if the MPR picks a leader which the markets are not comfortable with clash directly with the President's conviction. Such suggestions are being taken as an attempt to exploit the financial crisis to influence the outcome of the presidential elections.
It is for this reason that Sofyan Wanandi now finds himself in trouble with the military and with President Suharto. And, as the protests have shown, Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew's remarks on the vice-presidential race have also been received in the same vein.
Indeed, of late, statements from the Indonesian leadership, civilian as well as military, suggest that the mood is hardening against the imperfections of the market and the adverse effects of a volatile rupiah on economic and political stability.
Prices of basic goods are soaring despite reforms mandated by the International Monetary Fund, leading to social unrest and inter- ethnic tensions across the sprawling country. This has increased pressure to introduce some form of control on currency speculation before the country falls apart. The move to introduce the currency board system should be seen in this context.
Mr Suharto even talked about this in terms of a "killing strategy" to break the back of speculators. And almost in the same breath, although a few days later, he warned of a "plot" to destroy the Indonesian economy by sending the rupiah crashing through the 20,000 barrier. The military also seems convinced that the current financial crisis is no longer a purely market phenomenon. Gen Feisal, for instance, spoke this week about how the financial crisis was no longer making any sense.
Said the Jakarta military commander, Maj-Gen Syafrie Shamsuddin: "Outsiders cannot do anything if our own speculators do not support them. These are the traitors of the nation."
Asked if the sharp fall of the rupiah was deliberately manipulated, he added: "Certainly. It's those speculators. They are gamblers. Their target is to disturb our economic stability. They do not care because they have no sense of nationalism."
By closing ranks behind the Suharto-Habibie combination, the military is clearly supporting Mr Suharto's efforts to retake the initiative from the markets, never mind how difficult this may prove.
But the political leadership, the generals and different groups in Indonesia are obviously becoming increasingly annoyed by suggestions that the rupiah will crash uncontrollably if Indonesia chooses a leader the markets cannot agree with.
Dr Habibie himself has been keeping a relatively low profile so far. Perhaps he is not taking any chances, or perhaps he knows his seat in the vice-presidency is not a foregone conclusion until the election is actually over.
But he had some stinging words at a parliamentary commission hearing: "It is a sad day if Indonesia's leadership has to be determined by the rate of the dollar and the prices of stocks in Singapore."
[On February 18, Reuters reported that Indonesian Vice-President Try Sutrisno as saying he did not want a second term in office after the military backed Habibie for the post - James Balowski.]
Sander Thoenes profiles Indonesia's likely next vice-president
B.J. Habibie used to be a joke Diplomats and business people once rolled their eyes upon hearing the name of the man who has been minister for science and technology in the past four cabinets of Indonesia's President Suharto. They would crack jokes about his zigzag theory, which held that high interest rates boost inflation and should therefore be brought down, raised again and lowered once more to promote economic growth.
They humoured him as he pushed the president to close magazines that criticised his costly aeroplane manufacturing plant and threatened to dismiss academics who dared oppose his ascendancy in politics. They laughed at the number of portraits of himself in his office and home.
But Mr Habibie's nomination this week for the vice-presidency wiped the smiles off their face. Parliament is unlikely to nominate anyone but Mr Suharto's personal choice for running mate in March, when the legislature and 500 hand-picked officials will vote for a president and vice-president.
Suddenly, this former butt of jokes has become the most likely successor to one of the world's longest-ruling presidents. If things go according to plan (which is not certain), Mr Habibie may before long take over from a 76-year-old Mr Suharto who has ruled for 32 years. This would put him in charge of 200m people, 17,000 islands and some of the world's most valuable natural resources.
Even the International Monetary Fund, normally painstaking in its efforts to avoid involvement in politics, has voiced reservations. Stanley Fischer, its first deputy managing director, this week described Mr Habibie as a man "whose devotion to new ways of doing things was limited". Why are people so concerned about him?
Supporters of Mr Habibie say his alternative views on development have come to appeal to Mr Suharto because the traditional western prescription of open markets and deregulation has ended in such catastrophe. While the west preaches liberalism and adjustment, Mr Habibie believes in a big-bang theory of development. According to this view, a country can make itself rich behind closed markets simply by applying the right approach to technology.
Thus he has launched one of the few aircraft manufacturing operations in the developing world. The project may not have been successful, but the western-style approach to development has hardly been a glittering success either. At present exchange rates, it has failed to raise per capita income above the level it was when Mr Suharto seized power three decades ago.
The quest for a different approach seems natural. But financial markets clearly take a western view. Share prices have dived in recent days and the rupiah followed suit on Friday. The fall partly reflects concern that a plan to peg the rupiah to the dollar may not get off the ground. But Mr Habibie's nomination also played a role. The last time markets fell sharply was when Mr Habibie's candidacy was first rumoured in January. Then the rupiah lost 35 per cent in one week.
It must give Indonesia's domineering military a grim satisfaction that its critics at home and abroad shudder at the thought of seeing a highly skilled civilian take over from an officer with only basic education. Mr Habibie holds a doctorate in engineering from the Technische Hochschule in Aachen, has helped design deep-sea submarines, railway carriages and high-pressure water chambers for atomic reactors, and boasts an 18-year career at German aircraft maker Messerschmitt- Boelkow-Blohm.
But he is not an economist, at least not an orthodox one. He has opposed trade liberalisation and favoured import substitution and lavish subsidies, in spite of the rampant corruption they have brought to Indonesia. His promotion of high-technology industries flies in the face of a serious shortage of skilled labour and lack of markets.
Mr Habibie is little liked abroad. Diplomats at several embassies have said that visiting ministers are treated to rambling lectures. "He just holds court and goes on and on about his planes," recounts one diplomat. Indonesia's decision to set up a currency board to peg the rupiah increases concerns about his perceived limitations because a scheme would sharply increase the costs of sudden economic failure.
"Some people are looking at this with rose-tinted glasses," the diplomat adds. "They think Habibie will be sidelined as a vice-president. But that's wrong. He is a meddler." Mr Habibie may find himself isolated. He has made little effort to build alliances among the elite. His only claim to power is a life-long tie to Mr Suharto, who befriended his widowed mother when he was 13.
General Wiranto, about to be promoted to chief of the armed forces, is believed to have told the president that many officers oppose Mr Habibie. They are wary of his rash statements and suspicious of his civilian background
His opponents often assume the army would simply shove Mr Habibie aside if Mr Suharto were to die. That may be wishful thinking. "As long as Suharto has made a decision it's difficult for anybody to fight it," says one diplomat. "He is still very much in control. And Habibie has some support in the army."
The support of at least two generals may be enough to keep the army too divided to push him out. Most officers will remember the infighting within the military and the slaughter of more than 500,000 civilians that ensued in 1965 when a half-hearted coup against Mr Sukarno, the former president, failed.
Mr Habibie's opponents also tend to forget that he is quite popular with the middle classes. Some students like him because he is a civilian in a country dominated by the military - and a scientist at that. He also has some support among Moslems who share his dislike of the Chinese minority which dominates the economy. Some observers suggest he would like to copy Malaysia's policy of favouring ethnic Malay over ethnic Chinese in government jobs and contracts.
"He is a man who is very interested in his field, technology, but pays little attention to the economy or to social problems," says Amir Santoso, a political analyst with ICMI, a Moslem organisation chaired by Mr Habibie. "I doubt he will promote reforms. I doubt he has the broad political influence and support, even among the Moslems."
That is assuming Mr Habibie feels he needs popular support. "He thinks he can do anything," says a diplomat. "If he had a bumper sticker on his car it would say: 'Engineers can do anything'."
| Economy and investment |
Mantik Kusjanto, Jakarta -- President Suharto made a surprise move on Friday to restore fading confidence among Indonesians in their government by guaranteeing a pay-out on all legal deposits in 16 banks liquidated last year.
The government had previously said it would cover up to 20 million rupiah in each account of the 16 banks which amounted to 1.7 trillion rupiah.
"The government has decided to return all the money blocked in the liquidated banks amounting to 3.1 trillion rupiah," Finance Minister Mar'ie Muhammad told a parliamentary banking committee.
He said the government had no legal obligation to do so, but it was a personal decision by Suharto.
The government closed down the ailing banks last November 1 as part of a reform programme for the banking sector agreed with the International Monetary Fund.
Mar'ie said the funds would come from the central bank because the budget could not take on this burden. The government would reimburse the central bank over 10 years.
He said the Finance Ministry and the central bank, Bank Indonesia, were working on the technical details and planned to move quickly on returning the funds to depositors.
Political analysts said the move suggested Suharto wanted to regain diminishing public confidence in the government's ability to overcome the nation's worst economic crisis in decades.
There was a run on privately owned banks after the closure of the 16 institutions, with depositors fearing a collapse of the system and a loss of their savings.
"This is an all-out attempt to regain people's confidence. This is good news, but I think we need more to calm people and recover confidence in the system," a chief treasurer with a major bank said.
He said there was broad concern in the country over escalating unrest as prices rose after the plunge in the rupiah, which was trading on Friday around 9,200 to the dollar from 2,400 last July before the crisis broke.
"We also need IMF and international back-up to sort things out. It's not good to be in a war of words with them," the chief dealer said. The government and the IMF have been at loggerheads over an Indonesian proposal to institute a fixed exchange rate through a currency board. The fund and its Western backers say Indonesia is not ready for such a scheme.
German Finance Minister Theo Waigel said in Jakarta on Wednesday Suharto had promised to rethink the plan amid growing calls for the scheme to be put on hold.
Barry Porter, Jakarta -- Indonesia's President Suharto is showing signs he may yield to mounting international pressure and postpone his controversial plan to introduce a Hong Kong-style currency board system.
German Finance Minister Theo Waigel emerged from a meeting with the Indonesian leader saying he had been given the impression that the plan was now under review.
New central bank governor Sjaril Sabirin came out of his inauguration by Mr Suharto yesterday saying a currency board was "just one method that could be used to stabilise the rupiah".
Even its leading advocate, Steve Hanke -- the United States academic who had earlier sold the peg idea to Mr Suharto -- is talking as if he now doubts the president's resolve.
Mr Hanke said he had been told by the president yesterday he would "continuously study" the idea.
Mr Hanke, a recently appointed special adviser to Mr Suharto, warned the president must act within four months or "it could be too late". Earlier this week, he was saying the system might be up and running within three weeks.
The International Monetary Fund, US, Japan and the European Union have strongly objected to the idea of Indonesia ushering in a currency board before it reforms its banking sector and addresses its huge corporate debt problem.
The IMF has gone as far as to threaten to withhold its US$43 billion international aid package to Indonesia, according to a leaked letter in the Washington Post.
In Moscow, IMF managing director Michel Camdessus said he hoped Indonesia's economic situation would quickly normalise.
"I hope we will stabilise Indonesia soon but nobody knows if this will happen again in another place," he said.
US State Department spokesman James Foley said: "Both the IMF and G7 [Group of Seven] states have expressed some concern about the risks involved in moving ahead with the currency board in the current context."
IMF officials said yesterday that a senior IMF adviser told Suharto in a meeting on Tuesday that the fund was not against a currency board in principle, but many issues needed to be sorted out or put in place first.
Andre Cita, associate director at Bahana Securities in Jakarta, said: "I think the IMF is in a position where it is likely to be harsh, given that it is being given some heat back home by its donor countries."
The Asian Development Bank appears to have put its $1.5 billion loan to Indonesia on hold, with a spokesman yesterday saying it was still talking to the government.
David Chang, head of research at Trimegah Securities, said: "I think everyone here likes the idea of a [currency board] but at this present time you would be committing suicide."
There are fears that if a board is launched now without popular support or adequate reserves it would be attacked by hedge funds, interest rates could rocket, and there could be a scramble by locals to sell rupiah for US dollars, which would fast eat up the country's foreign reserves.
Singapore - The assets of a handful of Indonesia's richest people could go a long way to bailing out the country if the $43 billion IMF rescue package falters, data published by Forbes Magazine shows.
The U.S. business magazine publishes an annual list of the world's wealthiest people. Under its Indonesian entry on the public Internet it shows individuals -- including President Suharto -- with net worth totalling nearly $40 billion. The publication is available on page http://www.forbes.com.tool/toolbox/billionaires/index.asp.
The entries do not make clear whether or not the assets are actually denominated in U.S. dollars or when the estimates were made.
In July, 1997 the rupiah was standing at around 2,400 to the U.S. dollar. It has declined sharply since and hit a low of 17,000 during January 1998. It now stands at around 9,500.
President Suharto is listed at the top of Indonesian entries -- and sixth overall globally -- with assets totalling $16 billion. The magazine lists his source of wealth as `Investments (self-made)' and his class, or category, in the listings as "Kings, Queens and Dictators."
Summary of Forbes Indonesian listings
in order of wealth
Other firms in the group are involved in real estate, finance and agribusinessPresident Suharto: Net worth $16 billion. Source of wealth - Investments (self-made) The Wonowidjojo family: Net worth $7.3 billion. Source of wealth tobacco. Status - The family runs Gudung Garam, the country's leading producer of "kretek" clove cigarettes. Widjaja, Eka Tjipta: Net worth $ 5.4 billion. Source of wealth controls Sinar Mas Group. Status - The Sinar Mas Group is Indonesia's second-largest conglomerate and is the largest pulp and paper firm in the country.
Liem Sioe Liong: Net worth $4.0 billion. Source of wealth Diversified (self-made). Status - Forbes describes him as `Mr Indonesia Inc'. Head of an Indonesian/Chinese merchant clan, he heads the Salim Group. He was Indonesia's top taxpayer in 1996 according to the Finance Ministry. Hasan, Mohamed (Bob): Net worth $3.0 billion. Source of wealth Lumber, diversified (self-made). Status - Hasan is a confidant of President Suharto. He is a major player in the timber industry and has other interests in real estate, pulp, banking, trading, media and mining. Sampoerna, Putera: Source of wealth cigarettes. Net worth $2.3 billion. Status - Runs Indonesia's premier cigarette maker, PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna. Riady, Mochtar and family: Net worth $1.8 billion. Source of wealth Real estate, financial services (self-made). Status - Mochtar Riady runs the Lippo Group. Its interests range from property to banking and data processing. Riady recently became a household name in the United States with his connection to the "Asiagate" campaign contributions scandal.
| Arms/armed forces |
Jose Manuel Tesoro, Jakarta -- For Indonesia's Armed Forces, summoning 25,000 troops in full battle gear to a rain-slicked parking lot in south Jakarta early Feb. 7 was its way of making a statement. The black ski masks, white helmets and projectile- proof visors worn by the soldiers were meant to demonstrate that the country's powerful military, known as ABRI, is ready to face any possible disruptions of the upcoming People's Consultative Assembly (or MPR) even as its own leadership changes. And despite a deepening economic crisis that some civilians believe will only be solved by dramatic political reform.
At the gathering of the largely appointed electoral college, which begins March 1, President Suharto will run unchallenged for a seventh term. Before then, a reshuffle of ABRI's top brass is expected, as often occurs before an MPR session. The changes may have been discussed during the two-day annual meeting of ABRI's chiefs of staff, which began Feb. 10. But the decision is not ABRI's, it is Suharto's. Many believe he would like the army head, Gen. Wiranto, 50, to replace ABRI chief Feisal Tanjung, who is already past retirement age [Wiranto was named as the new ABRI chief on February 12 - JB].
In the circumstances, and in the face of an undefined enemy, the visible demonstration of might has left Jakarta's elite awash with rumors. Was the "security exercise" meant to send a blunt message to reformists? "Those who should be scared are only those who want to destroy stability," said Gen. Wiranto. Who might that be?
Indonesian political life is characteristically indirect; its participants are loath to name opponents and causes. That leaves an unusually large space for speculation. One rumor that quickly made the rounds last week was that an influential former Armed Forces commander, retired Gen. L.B. "Benny" Murdani, would be brought in for questioning in an expanding investigation of a late January bombing. He wasn't.
Although the explosion in a lower-class Jakarta district caused little damage, the bomb inquiry has spread steadily outwards, like a billowing cloud of smoke. Military investigators accused the banned radical youth group People's Democratic Party (PRD), whose leader is already serving a 13-year jail term for subversion, of constructing the bomb when it exploded. Authorities also say documents were found at the site of the blast containing the names of prominent businessmen, activists and retired military officers. Jakarta commander Syafrie Syamsuddin denied Murdani's name was on the list.
ABRI's commander from 1988 to 1993, Murdani, now 65, is one of the most fascinating, if shadowy, figures in Indonesian politics. He continues to cast a spell over the popular imagination. A hero in the war for Independence and campaigns in Irian Jaya and East Timor, Murdani maintains close ties to all arms of the military, especially the intelligence branch, which he led for more than a decade. He fell out of favor with Suharto when he questioned the growing wealth of the president's children. Nonetheless, he engineered the ascension of his protigi, Try Sutrisno, to the vice-presidency in 1993. Some even contend that he remains an active behind-the-scenes player.
As the vice presidential "race," in which Sutrisno is again a contender, enters its last weeks, it is not surprising that Murdani's name should resurface as a powerbroker. Since Suharto's running mate is traditionally unopposed, the lead-up to the MPR session is the time when most maneuvering goes on. Many have been mentioned, but Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie appears to be the front-runner [Habibie has now been confirmed as Golkar's choice as vice-president - JB]. On Feb. 10, one other likely candidate, National Planning Minister Ginanjar Kartasasmita, said he was not ready to accept the nomination if he were offered it.
There may be other reasons people are talking about Murdani. They recall that under his watch as ABRI chief in 1984, soldiers opened fire on a crowd of Muslim demonstrators near Jakarta's port district. The official tally was seven dead and 97 wounded. The incident led to a wave of Muslim unrest throughout the archipelago. Some in the Muslim community, justifiably or not, blame Murdani, a Catholic, for precipitating the violence.
And since January, young Muslim protesters have been picketing the headquarters of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank linked to Murdani. CSIS is headed by Jusuf Wanandi, a former student activist whose brother, prominent businessman Sofyan Wanandi, has been questioned by the police twice in connection with the PRD bombing, the second time for more than eight hours. The brothers are ethnic Chinese, a minority also being blamed by some for causing, or exacerbating, the economic crisis. Some privately wonder if the military is encouraging the anti-CSIS demonstrators, a claim that ABRI denies. "We don't indulge in diversion acts," says spokesman Brig.-Gen. A. Wahab Mokodongan.
In the past month, at least 12 towns have been hit by social unrest connected to rising prices for basic goods. The most recent incidents occurred on the islands of Sumbawa and Flores, and both required military intervention to restore peace. On Feb. 8, hundreds rioted and burned stores in the town of Ende on Flores. Much of the local ethnic Chinese business community fled to police or military headquarters for protection. Jakarta has been troubled by demonstrations, most of which have been peaceful. But on Feb. 11 hundreds of police and troops in riot gear broke up a protest and arrested many of the demonstrators. Amid the growing unease, many are wondering who will take over ABRI chief Tanjung's position, and when. Tanjung is already three years past the official retirement age of 55. In a reshuffle, he may be replaced by Wiranto, who is widely respected for his professionalism. But it will be Suharto, ABRI's supreme commander, who will decide the line-up. One thing is certain: he will choose officers whose loyalty to him is unquestioned. He has always done so, to some extent, says Harold Crouch, an Australian expert on ABRI, but it has been "more so the case in the past five years."
ABRI's leaders were also expected to discuss their vice presidential candidate at the Feb. 10 annual meeting. Each of the five recognized factions of the MPR, which include ABRI, the three legal political parties and a group of regional delegates, can nominate its own candidate, though in practice all agree on just one. Whatever ABRI's decision, no name will be revealed until the MPR session. With an issue as symbolic as the nomination of the nation's top two rulers, the military is likely to let civilians take the lead.
With less than 500,000 active members in a population of 200 million, ABRI depends on the perception that it exists to serve and protect, not to dominate and threaten. The military knows that it is "not particularly smart to try to maintain order by the use of force," says Canberra-based defense analyst Robert Lowry. "ABRI members are masters of co-opting their own society." Security drills, intimations of threat and investigations might just be ways to drive home the point that only ABRI stands between order and chaos in Indonesia.
Political hues
The Indonesian Armed Forces (or ABRI) may first appear to be monolithic. But it is too large and too powerful an institution for that. There are shades of difference in ABRI, based on the soldiers' political and religious inclinations. These classifications (developed by analysts) are at best a rough guide because personal loyalties count as much as political orientation.
Green Soldiers whose primary allegiance is to the military and its commander-in-chief, Suharto. Most of the military's top brass, including Army head Gen. Wiranto, are in this group. Green-green Soldiers who are loyal to both the armed forces and Islam, but do not necessarily want to establish an Islamic state (green represents the army and Islam). ABRI commander Feisal Tanjung is thought to fall into this category.
Red-and-white Soldiers of this shade are fiercely nationalist (red and white are the colors of the Indonesian flag). They are at times willing to break the chain of command if they believe it is for the good of the nation. Retired general Benny Murdani, who led ABRI from 1983 to 1988, is considered to be the paramount Red-and-White.
The Jakarta military commander Major-General Syafrie Syamsuddin announced Wednesday that all demonstrations on the streets of the capital are banned forthwith, because they cause disruption to the traffic and disturb the general public.
"I have now specified that I will not permit any groups to hold demonstrations in the streets," the commander said. "If any groups go ahead regardless, we will take stern measures," the major-general said, without specifying what these measures would be.
Public relations chief of the command LtColonel Nachrowi said: "We will act to prevent people from taking to the streets but if they succeed in getting onto the streets we will take action to stop them. We will have vehicles on hand to take them back." He said that as part of the measures planned against demonstrators, 25,000 security personnel have been given instructions on how to handle any actions by masses of people.
Nachrowi said that in addition to the prohibition against all forms of street demonstrations, there will be a prohibition on all public events for one week before and one week after the General Session of the MPR. This will include a prohibition on meetings and seminar. The only exceptions will be religious events and weddings.