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ASIET Net News 40 – October 13-19, 1997
The Age - October 16, 1997
James Dunn – Timor watchers would have detected a touch of irony
in a news item from Jakarta earlier this week. In a bizarre
announcement Colonel Slamet Sidabutar, the East Timor district
military commander, alleged that an unnamed Australian had been
in Indonesia teaching Timorese rebels the art of making home-made
bombs, which were to be used to wreak destruction in the
provincial capital, Dili.
By coincidence this week marks 22 years since five newsmen from
Australia, in an even more bizarre announcement, were accused by
the Indonesian military of supporting the forces of Fretilin,
then in control of the former Portuguese colony.
It was, of course, an outrageous lie, for in reality the
journalists took great care to preserve their non-combatant
status. The Indonesia report was a feeble exercise in
disinformation, designed to cover up the circumstances in which
they were killed at Balibo, in a covert Indonesian Special Forces
operation conducted at a time when Jakarta was insisting that its
forces were not involved in East Timor.
Over the years the anniversary of the killing of the Balibo Five
has come to symbolise more than the loss of five courageous
newsmen. In particular, it marked the beginning of a brutal
military intervention, which was to cost the lives of more than a
quarter of East Timor's population. It also serves to remind us
of a shameful episode in Australia's foreign policy, for the
invasion was based on the well-founded assumption that
Australia's political leaders would go along with Jakarta's
annexation of the colony.
Not only did Australia decline to protest against the killing of
the newsmen but no Australian Government has ever formally
condemned what a gross violation of the UN Charter it was. Some
officials have even held up our record on Timor as an example of
the merits of quiet diplomacy in relation to human rights.
We have, of course, provided a substantial amount of aid to East
Timor, including to the International Red Cross. However,
Timorese argue that our aid programs mainly benefit the 150,000
Indonesians who form the new elite of the territory, who drive
most of the cars and live in most of the modern housing.
As for quiet diplomacy, Timor exposes the utter frailty of this
concept. For the people of this former colony the outcome could
not really have been worse. Their population has been decimated,
they have been marginalised in their own land and have had
imposed on them an infinitely more oppressive form of colonialism
than that experienced in the last years of Portuguese rule.
To make matters worse, Australia's quiet diplomacy has for years
helped keep the world community quiet about the situation in East
Timor.
This year, no thanks to Australia, there is something for the
Timorese to celebrate; their plight has become more widely known
to an international community, which is placing stronger emphasis
on human rights protection.
A number of developments has led to increased international
pressure on Indonesia. First, there was the award of the Nobel
Peace Prize to Bishop Belo and Jose Ramos Horta, which has opened
doors hitherto closed to Timorese leaders. Both spokesmen have
helped stimulate an unprecedented interest in the search for a
more just settlement to the problem.
Second, the Timorese have been able to benefit from growing
international criticisms of the Suharto regime, whether on
grounds of corruption or its crushing of Indonesia's democracy
movement.
Third, political changes in Britain and France have helped focus
greater attention on Timor in the European Union, which,
incidentally, has just allocated $3 million to help them.
Fourth, the new UN Secretary General, Dr Kofi Annan, is putting
much more effort into the UN's role, under the 1982 General
Assembly resolution, than did his predecessor. He has been urging
the Portuguese and Indonesia to work out a settlement.
So far this has met with little success. The main obstacle is
Indonesia's stubborn refusal to reconsider the self-determination
factor, a key element in the UN resolution. Next week there is to
be a further meeting in Austria between the leaders of the
Timorese factions.
The fact that there has been little improvement in East Timor
itself is causing a hardening of world opinion. Most visitors to
the province, including a recent EU group, have merely confirmed
Timorese resentment at Indonesian rule, especially the military
presence. The situation there continues to be the subject of
Amnesty International reports, while the highly respected, New
York-based Human Rights Watch has just released a detailed report
that suggests the situation is deteriorating, with increased
violence by Falintil guerrillas as well as the military. Reports
of arbitrary arrests and torture continue unabated.
While there are grounds for cautious optimism, the obstacles to
real progress remain formidable. The Suharto regime's stubborn
resolve is buttressed by strong support in the the region,
especially from its ASEAN partners. In relation to the rest of
the world, of particular comfort to Jakarta is the supportive
stand of Australia, apparently the only western democracy
insisting that the status quo should be accepted. But it is high
time we considered the cost of this compliance to our sagging
international image.
[James Dunn is a former Australian diplomat. He is the author of
Timor: A People Betrayed.]
The Australian - October 18-19, 1997
Don Greenlees – The Federal Government is facing a political
contest over human rights after a decision by the ALP to call for
the first time for a "right of self-determination" for East Timor
in its new foreign affairs policy.
Pushing human rights to the forefront of the new policy, Labor
will test relations with Indonesia by declaring "no lasting
solution" can be found to the East Timor conflict without
negotiations leading to an act of self-determination.
Opposition foreign affairs spokesman Laurie Brereton has
underlined the firmer position on East Timor by backing calls by
South African President Nelson Mandela for Jakarta to release
East Timorese rebel leader Xanana Gusmao from prison as a show of
good faith.
The policy document, the first of Labor's policies to be publicly
disclosed, states human rights should be an "integral part" of
Australia's engagement with Indonesia.
The document was steered through the ALP's 20-member national
security and trade policy committee by Mr Brereton in late August
and will be taken to the party's national conference.
"Australia should maintain contact with all elements of the
political process in Indonesia, including in such dialogue clear
expression of the Australian people's fundamental concern with
human rights and democratic freedoms," the policy says.
"Labor will lend every encouragement to efforts to peacefully
resolve the East Timor conflict. It is Labor's considered view
that no lasting solution to the conflict in East Timor is likely
in the absence of a process of negotiation through which the
people of East Timor can exercise their right of self-
determination."
In government, Labor stopped short of a call for an act of self-
determination. But it supported UN moves to consider self-
determination in negotiation with the parties. Labor maintained
this position was not inconsistent with recognition of Indonesian
sovereignty.
Speaking to The Weekend Australian, Mr Brereton said Australia
should be "open and forthright" in stating its view on how best
to resolve the East Timor conflict in contrast to the "behind
closed doors" approach of the Government when addressing human
rights concerns in Asia.
"It's a question for Indonesia at the end of the day but I don't
think we should be afraid to state our view about what we believe
is necessary to see the matter resolved," he said.
Asked whether he would support Mr Mandela's bid to have Gusmao
released, Mr Brereton said: "I think it would be a positive step.
But it is a matter for Indonesia. I certainly welcome Mandela's
effort."
Mr Brereton's comments reflect a decision by Labor to push human
rights to the forefront of the political battle with the Federal
Government over the direction of foreign policy.
The policy contains an extensive statement on human rights,
promising a "consistent, coherent and firm" stance in defence of
the full range of human rights and rejects "attempts to portray
this concern as interference in the internal affairs of other
States".
It backs the use of political and economic sanctions in extreme
cases and also promises greater scrutiny of defence exports to
ensure Australia doesn't indirectly contribute to "major
suppression or violation of human rights".
Beyond human rights, the policy maintains a largely bipartisan
approach to foreign affairs. It stresses the priority on
engagement with Asia but expounds on only two regional
relationships: China and Indonesia.
It differs from the Government's foreign policy White Paper by
challenging the requirement that a "national interest" test be
applied to all foreign policy.
Environment/land disputes
Labour issues
Human rights/law
Social unrest
Economy and investment
Politics
East Timor
The art of quiet diplomacy leaves Australia isolated
Labor policy ups ante for East Timor autonomy
Promotion for man who led assault on Balibo
Sydney Morning Herald - October 18, 1997
A report into the death of five Australia-based journalists at Balibo in East Timor 22 years ago will be examined today at a seminar at the University of NSW Law School. One man who knows just what happened at Balibo, writes Asia Editor David Jenkins, is Lieutenant-General Yunus Yosfiah, leader of the attacking force and now one of Indonesia's most influential generals.
When people ask Lieutenant-General Mohammad Yunus Yosfiah to nominate the military figure he most admires, he doesn't hesitate. The man at the top of his list is General Sudirman, the charismatic Javanese teacher who directed Indonesia's guerilla struggle during the independence fight against the Dutch, only to die of consumption as victory was attained.
But Yunus also has a high regard for two of America's celebrated World War II military leaders - General Dwight Eisenhower and General Douglas MacArthur - as well as Germany's General Erwin Rommel, the "Desert Fox".
"I have read all their autobiographies," he told an Indonesian interviewer recently.
Like many of the men in the upper echelons of the Indonesian Armed Forces (ABRI), Yunus is known as an orang tempur, or as one old Indonesian general likes to put it, "a fighting animal".
A Buginese from Rappang in South Sulawesi, he joined the elite RPKAD red beret force after graduating from the National Military Academy in 1965. He served as a platoon commander in West Kalimantan, where the Indonesians were tracking down Maoist PGRS guerillas, almost all of them ethnic Chinese, whom they had supported a short time before during President Sukarno's "Crush Malaysia" campaign.
But it was in East Timor that Yunus made his name.
On October 16, 1975, as Indonesia stepped up its campaign to seize control of the former Portuguese colony, Captain Yunus Yosfiah led about 100 red beret Kopassandha (secret warfare) troops in an attack on Balibo, a mountain outpost held by a small force of Fretilin soldiers.
The operation, part of a wider attack, was a clear breach of the United Nations charter, and Yunus's men, who were accompanied by several hundred pro-Indonesia East Timorese "volunteers", had removed all badges of rank and other identifying insignia.
Five Australia-based television journalists - representing Channels 7 and 9 - were camped in the town, prepared to film the Indonesian attack thought to be imminent. The Indonesian assault came at dawn on October 16, with unexpected ferocity.
Instead of making their way up the twisting mountain road from Batugade, a coastal town which they had already captured, the Indonesians came from behind, putting the Fretilin forces to flight under a withering barrage of firepower.
Seventeen people, including the five journalists, were killed in circumstances that have never been adequately explained.
A number of East Timorese who were in Balibo that day have stated that Indonesian soldiers killed at least two of the journalists in cold blood to eliminate foreign witnesseses to their illegal attack. The Indonesian Army has always maintained the journalists were killed in crossfire.
Although Jakarta appeared embarrassed by the furore that erupted over the deaths of the journalists at Balibo, senior army officers took no precautions to prevent a recurrence of the event when they staged a full-scale invasion of Dili seven weeks later.
During the attack on Dili, an Australian freelancer, Roger East, was taken to the docks and killed by troops from Battalion 502, an East Java unit under the command of Major (now Major-General) Warsito. Yunus had served in Warsito's company in West Kalimantan.
From Balibo, Yunus went on to greater things. He was appointed founding commander of Infantry Battalion 744, the first East Timorese territorial unit in ABRI. This was never going to be an easy assignment.
One problem was that East Timorese society was riven by ideological - and to some extent regional - rivalries. Another was that military expertise was in short supply on the non- Fretilin side of politics. Although some followers of the pro- Indonesian Apodeti party had served as second-line troops in the Portuguese colonial army, Battalion 744 needed a high proportion of Indonesian NCOs, and not simply for reasons of control.
Yunus was the commander of Battalion 744 when it killed Fretilin commander Nicolau Lobato on Mt Maubesi at the end of 1978, a propaganda coup for Jakarta. In an interview with the magazine Tempo in 1986, he said his favourite pastime was playing back a video of the killing of Lobato.
In 1979, Yunus, then 35, married Antonia, a 19-year-old of Timorese-Portuguese descent, in a huge wedding ceremony in Dili. This is said to have been the first marriage between a member of the Indonesian armed forces and a resident of East Timor.
Between 1985 and 1987, Yunus was back in East Timor, as commander of Korem 164 Dili, the East Timor military region.
On his way up the army ladder, he attended courses at the US Army's Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth (1979) and the Royal College of Defence Studies in Britain (1989), a sure sign he was marked out for higher things.
During his year at Fort Leavenworth, he wrote a thesis titled The Role of the Mass Media in Developing Countries. His most recent posting was commander of the ABRI Command and Staff College (Sesko ABRI) in Bandung.
A Western military source in Jakarta describes Yunus, who has about 13 military medals, as "a well-respected professional" who is close to the ABRI Commander, General Feisal Tanjung. Yunus was known as someone who exposed officers "to a broad range of views" when he was the commander at Sesko ABRI.
"He's a bit of a military intellectual," said this source. "Yunus makes a big point of how liberal-minded he is."
That claim may raise an eyebrow among people who have heard Yunus issue the standard warning that the time is not yet ripe for ABRI to depart from its tut wuri handayani (leading from behind) role. Nor will it cut much ice with those who have heard him put stress on the dangers posed by left-wing "clandestine forces".
Although Sesko ABRI was an important posting for Yunus, many observers were taken aback last month when he was appointed Armed Forces Chief of Social-Political Affairs (Kassospol ABRI), one of the most important posts in the armed forces.
The Kassospol is not just the political face of a highly political army. Yunus is responsible for the selection and management of those ABRI officers who are assigned a significant number of seats in the national, provincial and district parliaments.
He is in charge of the 6,000 military officers who have been placed in strategic positions in the civilian bureaucracy, giving him an influence at virtually every level of government and in every government department.
Finally, as Bob Lowry notes in his recent book The Armed Forces of Indonesia, the Kassospol "has responsibility for general public political education/indoctrination and for the achievement of social-political objectives such as the election of acceptable candidates to leadership positions in political parties, unions and other community organisations".
It had been widely thought the Kassospol job would be given to Major-General Bambang Yudhoyono, 48, one of the brightest new stars in the ABRI firmament, top of his class at the military academy and a man with an MA from from a US university. Instead, Bambang ended up as one of Yunus's two key assistants.
Yunus is the sixth occupant of the vital Kassospol post in as many years, an unsettling succession which has meant no one office-holder has really had time to get on top of the job. Nor is he likely to be there long - he is due to retire from the army in August 1999, at the age of 55. He visited Australia two years ago to observe the Kangaroo '95 defence exercise, during which members of Battalion 502, Warsito's former unit, took part in a dawn parachute "attack" on Wyndham. Nor is that the extent of his Australia connection. Two of his sisters married Australians and now live in Perth.
How, after all these years, does he look back on Balibo?
According to a source in Jakarta: "Yunus says he wasn't in Balibo when the journalists were killed. [He says] the Timorese volunteers went ahead" - a claim which stretches credulity, some feel. At the same time, the source says, "Yunus expresses concern of some kind over Balibo."
Financial Times (London) - October 16, 1997
Sander Thoenes and Quentin Peel, Jakarta – Indonesia may walk out of talks with Portugal over the status of East Timor unless progress is made soon, Ali Alatas, Indonesia's foreign minister, has said.
United Nations' efforts to mediate in intensified talks between Indonesia and Portugal over East Timor had not made any progress. "I don't see any sign yet in Portugal that it is ready for a negotiated solution," he added.
Unless Portugal gave such a sign, Indonesia could go back to the UN General Assembly and ask for a vote of recognition of its annexation of East Timor.
"If at one point or another we are not making any progress, we may have to revert to a showdown vote," Mr Alatas stated. "This time Indonesia will come up with a draft resolution... for which it will have to acquire the support of a majority. Then it will be over."
East Timor was a Portuguese colony until Indonesia invaded in 1975 to quell an independence movement. Up to 200,000 people may have died in clashes between Timorese guerrillas and Indonesian troops; dozens have died in recent months.
"For us, there is no more East Timor problem, internally," Mr Alatas said. "But externally, we have to admit, it is still there. Why is it still a problem in the UN? Because Portugal makes it one."
Portugal, which insists on a referendum on autonomy for the Timorese, submitted annual resolutions to the General Assembly condemning Indonesia's annexation of East Timor for several years. In 1982, the two agreed to avoid public embarrassment and meet twice a year to discuss a compromise.
Earlier this year, Jakarta and Lisbon agreed to intensify negotiations, with regular meetings of lower-level officials rather than just brief ministerial summits.
"Once this is resolved, we can turn to solving whatever internal difficulties we still have in East Timor," Mr Alatas said. "Whatever the opposition, and its size is very much exaggerated, it will collapse."
Diplomats expressed surprise at Indonesia's threat to walk out of the first serious talks since the annexation. Rather than fade out of public memory, East Timor has regained support in the west in recent years, particularly after a leading Timorese independence activist was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1996.
Last month, Mr Alatas said President Suharto would not visit Australia and may miss an important Asia-Pacific Economic Co- operation summit in Vancouver to avoid heckling.
Lusa - October 17, 1997
Sydney – The Indonesian army has arrested in the last days dozens of youths, in several raids to villages aimed at discredit the armed rebel movement, a resistance leader told Lusa on Thursday.
The representative of the East Timorese resistance movement FRETILIN in Sydney, Estanilau da Silva, quoting sources in the territory, said that 24 youths had been arrested in the area of Viqueque where most of the military operations occurred in the last days.
"The population is currently living in a real and permanent terror atmosphere, with many military operations, most of them headed by the son-in-law of Suharto (Indonesia's president), Colonel Prabowo", said Da Silva.
The statements came just after reports by the Indonesian news agency Antara claiming that armed members of the East Timorese resistance had caused trouble in several inland villages, where they went to seek food.
Antara said these rebels have been forced to leave the forests due to the lack of food after a drought hit several regions in East Timor.
Indonesia invaded East Timor in 1975 and annexed it one year later but the United Nations still regards Portugal as the territory's administering power.
Agence France Presse - October 16, 1997
Sydney – Five Australian journalists killed in East Timor were deliberately targeted by Indonesian troops and not caught in crossfire as had been thought, a report said on the 22nd anniversary of the incident.
In an interview obtained by Australia's SBS Radio, an officer of a Timorese faction aligned to Indonesia at the time said the attack on the border outpost of Balibo was conducted with the sole objective of killing the journalists.
The 1975 storming of Balibo came as Indonesia was preparing to launch a full-scale invasion of the former Portuguese colony.
"Objectively, it was to hunt the journalists so they wouldn't witness the invasion ... the objective was not to arrest them," said the unidentified officer, who had access to the Indonesian command.
"It was a surprise attack. They surrounded them. They retreated but they couldn't escape. They stayed inside the house and there they were killed. Some were shot, others were beaten to death," he said late on Wednesday on SBS's World View programme.
The Balibo incident has been the subject of numerous unresolved inquiries in Australia, but Jakarta has always vehemently denied allegations the men were murdered by Indonesian troops.
Another inquiry launched on the 20th anniversary of the killings found the attack on Balibo was carried out under Indonesian command, but said it was likely the five lost their lives in the heat of the battle.
The officer from the Timorese Democratic Party (UDT), whose forces were colalborating with Indonesian troops, said they expected little resistance from the Fretilin freedom fighters at Balibo.
A total of 700 Indonesian troops attacked on four fronts and were met with just one Fretilin soldier who was quickly killed at his machine gun position.
The Indonesian government's insistence that the five died in crossfire between rival Timorese forces was wrong, the UDT officer said in the interview with a Portugese journalist, and neither could they have been confused with Fretilin.
"Crossfire would only happen if there was a little resistance to the invasion and anyway, they were well protected inside the house." Colleagues told him one of the men was shot in the back as he fled from the "safe house" and another's dead body was dressed in a Fretilin uniform and placed on top of a machine gun.
The five men killed were reporter Greg Shackleton, 27, sound recordist Tony Stewart, 21, and cameraman Gary Cunningham, 27, all of Channel Seven, and Channel Nine reporter Malcolm Rennie, 28, and cameraman Brian Peters, 29.
Sydney Morning Herald - October 14, 1997
Craig Skehan and Louise Williams – In an attempt to secure political asylum for a colleague, jailed East Timorese independence leader Xanana Gusmao has written a letter acknowledging that he authorised the making of bombs to attack military targets.
The revelation came as Indonesian authorities said yesterday they would ask the Australian Government for urgent help in tracking an Australian who they accuse of playing a role in the bomb- building.
Sources in Australia said that Gusmao, who is serving a 20-year prison term in Jakarta, has written to Austrian authorities urging them not to hand over an independence supporter who uses the name Avelino.
Avelino has temporary sanctuary with his wife and two young children at the Austrian Embassy in Jakarta.
The Australian sources said Avelino wants to be allowed refuge in Portugal, the colonial power in East Timor before Indonesia's 1975 invasion.
However, the Indonesian Government is demanding that he be handed to police because of his alleged involvement in the bombing plan.
Sources said Gusmao's letter states that if anyone was to be held responsible for the bomb making it should be him, as others were acting on his directions.
Gusmao said East Timorese had to defend themselves against the Indonesian military, which was being armed by countries all over the world, and that there had been no intention to use bombs against civilian targets. His admission that he approved the bombing campaign comes amid international efforts to secure his freedom.
The regional military commander for East Timor, Colonel Salamat Sidabutar, said yesterday that the Australian had spent about a month in central Java, where he had taught four East Timorese independence fighters how to assemble bombs.
The approach to the Australian Government would be made through the defence attache' at the embassy in Jakarta, said Brigadier- General A.W. Mokodongan.
He said the Australian, known only as Jeffrey, arrived in Indonesia in early March and stayed until early April, when he went to Portugal.
The operation was discovered last month after one of the bombs exploded accidentally and military intelligence officers seized documents and raw materials from the house, rented by three East Timorese.
Initial arrests included that of an East Timorese identified as Nunu, who was reported by Agence France Press to be the brother of Avelino.
The Melbourne-based East Timor Human Rights Centre said yesterday that up to 13 East Timorese men were believed to be in detention in Semarang and Dili in connection with the bomb making.
The Australian - October 13, 1997
Military authorities in East Timor have seized a cache of 20 homemade bombs and detained two rebels accused of planning to destroy the territory's capital, Dili, an Indonesian newspaper reported yesterday.
District military commander Colonel Slamet Sidabatur told a local newspaper the two suspects, Constancio Costa Dos Santos, 21, and a 23 year old whose name was only given as Paul, were arrested in Dili on September 15th.
Twenty home-made bombs capable of blowing a hole through a piece of steel 5 to 10 mm thick were confiscated along with 45 rounds of M-16 ammunition, the newspaper said, based on a report from the State Antara news agency.
The military cuold not be reached for comment.
Also confiscated were a tape recorder, a mobile phone, a video camera as well as 250,000 rupiah ($A 97) and letters from Xanana Gusmao destined for rebels hiding in the forests of East Timor.
Mr Gusmao, leader of the Fretilin group, is serving a 20 year prison sentence in Jakarta for plotting against the state and illegal possession of firearms.
Phots of the suspects having their picture taken with exiled East Timorese resistance leader Jose Ramos Horta were also said to have been seized, the newspaper reported.
Mr Ramos Horta was a co-recipient of the 1996 Nobel peace prize along with Bishop Carlos Ximenes Belo and is based in Australia.
Colonel Sidabatur said the two were being held for making the bombs, adding that the military was alo seeking a married couple holed up at the Austrian embassy in Jakarta, since seeking asylum on September 20th.
The commander said the military would try to have the couple transferred into military custody, adding the military would "clarify the problem and would also prove that the two were terrorists".
Col Sidabatur also said that an unidentified person from Australia came to Demak, Central Java, in March to teach the four suspects how to make the bombs and then left Portugal [sic] to meet Mr Ramos Horta and several others.
The military was also investigating the origin of the confiscated bullets, he said, adding that if any military were implicated "there would be no mercy".
The discovery follows several months of gueilla insurgency by the rebels opposed to Indonesia's rule of the disputed territory. On Friday five men went on trial over the deaths of 17 police officers killed when rebels allegedly threw hand grenades into the back of a police truck last May. There have also been several fatal gun battles between rebels and security forces.
East Timor Human Rights Centre - October 13, 1997
Up to thirteen East Timorese men are believed to be still in detention in Semarang and Dili following two recent incidents involving home-made bombs.
In Semarang, nine East Timorese are being detained at POLDA (the local police station) following their arrest on or about 14 September for their alleged involvement in a bomb blast in a house in Demak, east Semarang. The group includes two East Timorese men whose names were previously unknown, Joao Bosco Carceres and Acelino (no surname). It is believed lawyers from YLBHI, representing Joao Bosco Carceres, Acelino, Domingos Natalino Coehlo da Silva and Nuno dos Santos, were refused permission to see their clients on the grounds of 'state security'. It is not clear whether charges have been brought against them under Indonesian law.
Amnesty International has confirmed that Laurindo Albino da Costa Lourdes (previously Laurindo Alkino Da Costa) who was believed to have been arrested in Semarang was not in fact arrested, while an ETHRC source has confirmed that Julio Santana has now been released. Appeals on their behalf should cease.
In Dili, the four men who were arrested on about 16 September in relation to their alleged possession of eleven bombs are believed to be still in detention at POLRES (Regional Police Headquarters) in Dili. The detainees are Constancio Chantal dos Santos, Jojo dos Santos, Francisco Caldeira and a fourth man, whose identity is still unclear. The ETHRC identified him as Jose Ximenes while Amnesty International has reported that he is Eduardo (no surname). The ETHRC is still trying to confirm his identity.
It is believed Constancio Chantal dos Santos and Jojo dos Santos are being held under Articles 106, 108 and 110 of the Indonesian Criminal Code (KUHP) for rebellion against the state, and under Article 1, UU Decrit No 12 1961, in relation to the use of weapons. Grave fears are held for the safety of Constancio Chantal dos Santos because it has been alleged he was carrying correspondence from Xanana Gusmao, the jailed East Timorese Resistance leader, at the time of his arrest.
Reliable ETHRC sources have reported that all thirteen detainees have been subjected to torture in order to extract confessions. It is believed all of the Semarang detainees have been subjected to electric shock. Constancio Chantal dos Santos has also been subjected to electric shock and has had two fingers severed. The ETHRC holds grave fears for the safety of all thirteen men as they may be subjected to further torture if they are not allowed immediate access to legal representation. The ETHRC is also concerned that some of the detainees may have been arbitrarily detained as it is not clear whether they have all been charged under Indonesian law. Those detainees who have not been charged with a recognisable offence under Indonesian law should be immediately released.
Reuter - October 12, 1997
Jakarta – An Indonesian military official has accused two East Timorese sheltering in the Austrian embassy in Jakarta of being terrorists.
Indonesia's military commander in East Timor, Colonel Slamat Sidabutar, was quoted by the official Antara news agency on Sunday as saying two of six Timorese at the diplomatic mission seeking political asylum in Portugal were terrorists.
The two were identified only as AF and S.
"As the masterminds behind the making of assembled bombs in Demak in Central Java and along with the 20 which were smuggled to Dili is proof that they are terrorists which must be condemned by the whole world," Sidabutar said in Dili on Saturday.
Last month up to 13 East Timorese men were reportedly arrested in Dili and around the Central Java capital Semarang, after authorities discovered some of them carrying 20 bombs and ammunition after they arrived in Dili by ferry.
Reports at the time said an explosion in a house rented by a number of East Timorese in Demak led to the arrests.
The six asylum seekers entered the embassy three weeks ago. Indonesian authorities in an unusual move have refused to take the well-established steps to process their asylum request.
More than 100 East Timorese have entered foreign missions in Jakarta in the past two years in asylum bids. They generally had their requests to leave for Portugal dealt with in days, facilitated by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
Portugal is the former colonial power in East Timor and is the main destination because it routinely grants Portuguese nationality to any East Timorese applying for it. Lisbon is still recognised by the United Nations as the territory's administrator.
However, attempts to allow the latest group to leave have reached a stalemate, as Indonesian authorities are keen to detain two of them. The group includes a couple with two children.
The Austrian embassy said on Sunday the six were still in the embassy compound with no immediate plans to leave.
Sidabutar said the asylum seekers felt unsafe as a result of their terrorist activities.
"After the bomb they assembled in Demak exploded they felt their plans were already known by the security forces, so the two asked for political asylum in another country," he said.
"You can imagine that if the 20 bombs slipped through and were used by certain irresponsible parties, then hundreds of innocent East Timorese would have become victims."
Evidence was being gathered to convince the Austrian embassy of the asylum seekers' involvement in the bomb plot, he added.
Indonesia still faces a small band of guerrillas opposing its rule in East Timor almost 22 years after its December 1975 invasion. It annexed the territory the following year in an act not recognised by the United Nations.
Diplomats who watch East Timor closely say bomb-making is a new development in the low-level conflict, which mostly involves ambushes and small scale attacks on the Indonesian military in the rugged interior.
| Environment/land disputes |
Indonesia Times - October 17, 1997
Jakarta – Another 17 people have died in drought stricken Irian Jaya, taking the toll to 462, a report says.
On the other hands, another 90,000 people are now facing serious food ortages, the report added.
The disaster task force in Wamena, capital of Irian Jaya's isolated mountainous district of Jayawijaya, said 11 people in Ninia sub-district and another six in the Tiom sub-district, had died, the Antara news agency said.
Prolonged drought and freak storms also threatened at least 90,000 people of the district's 500,000 inhabitants with serious food shortages, said the head of Jayawijaya district, J.B. Wenas.
Wenas told Antara that drought and hail stones had ruined the local crop of yam, the main staple food. The resulting malnutrition had greatly weakened their resistance to various ailments. On top of the drought, forest and bush fires have become a growing threat.
Some 100 people in two hamlets in Ninia sub-district are surrounded by fires, the Kompas daily said.
Fires in Irian Jaya have already burned over 6,217 hectares (15,355 acres) of forest in the Lorentz national park and sent up thick smoke which has shrouded the region and hampered air relief efforts. Wenas said the authorities were preparing to airlift out villagers if the danger grew.
Relief operations to drop food and medicine aid to the stricken areas in Jayawijaya rely heavily on small aircraft as most villages are on mountain ridges or steep slopes with no roads.
Since relief efforts started on September 23, only 28 tonnes of rice have been distributed while about 36 tones of food a day was needed, Wenas said.
He said relief distribution has been hampered by the limited number of aircraft available, dwindling aviation fuel and bad visibility caused by forest fires.
The Missionary Aviation Fellowship, the Christian mission airline that forms the backbone of Irian Jaya's transportation, has put four of its 14 Cessna planes into the relief efforts and the giant mining concern Freeport Indonesia has lent one of its helicopters.
The reserve of aviation fuel was down to 14 drums, enough for one and a half days flying time," Wenas said.
The disaster task force has received tones of rice, noodles, dried fish, mineral water, yam, snacks, salt, soybeans, milk, sugar, biscuits, medicine and clothing, but they still had to be flown to Wamena for distribution to the drought-hit areas, one official said.
Wenas has expressed concern that the number of victims will rise unless more intense relief efforts are made in the next months. He said that new yam crops, if planted now, would only mature in eight months.
Visiting German environmental expert, Johann Georg Goldammer, said here the drought had not yet reached its climax, which he said would come around December or January, the Antara news agency reported.
Reuters - October 16, 1997
Jakarta – At least 416 people in Indonesia's remote Irian Jaya province have died of famine and disease and nearly 90,000 face serious food shortages because of a severe drought, relief officials said on Thursday.
"The situation is quite grim here. As of today, 416 people have died because of the famine. Rains have only fallen three times in this area in six months," an official at the disaster coordinating office said by telephone from Wamena.
"The estimate that 90,000 people are at risk... is not a joke," he said from the capital of the drought-stricken central Jayawijaya district.
The drought has been exacerbated by the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean affecting global weather patterns. Papua New Guinea, which shares half of the vast New Guinea island with Irian Jaya, has also been hard hit by a lack of rainfall.
Humanitarian efforts include the despatch of tonnes of rice and noodles to help people in Jayawijaya to deal with the drought. Blankets have also been sent.
The official said at least eight districts were hard hit by drought which had destroyed crops, especially the staple sweet potato, and helped to cause respiratory problems, malaria and other ailments.
"A lack of food has made people become very weak. Respiratory problems are enough to kill the people," he said, adding that relief efforts had been hampered by the smog caused by forest fires in many parts of the island.
"We have so far managed to distribute rice and send doctors to the drought-stricken areas. The problem is flights are often hampered by the smog," said the official.
Wamena, with a tribal population of around 45,000, can be reached only by air. Located at a height of 2,300 metres (7,500 ft) in the scenic Balien valley, it is surrounded by some of the world's most rugged terrain.
The official Antara news agency reported on Thursday that missionaries in the areas feared the crisis would continue.
It quoted Wally Wiley, manager of the Mission Aviation Fellowship (MAF), which organises missionary flights to remote areas, as saying on Wednesday that the food shortage was chronic.
"If this problem is not quickly handled, then the people will suffer more and more because of the decline in their physical condition. It will be easy for them to get sick and die," he said.
Australian Financial Review - October 13, 1997
President Soeharto and his family are the most reluctant to make the necessary sacrifices because of their business interests, contends George J. Aditjondro.
Last week, Indonesian President Soeharto called for the International Monetary Fund to patch Indonesia's financial system, after the rupiah suffered a dramatic 20 per cent plunge over the previous two weeks. But who will fight the forest fires which have been raging since July in many of the main islands of Indonesia, at the same time as the rupiah's exchange rate began its dramatic plunge?
In this case, is not only a problem of extinguishing the fire. It is a matter of halting the alarming rate of tropical deforestation in Indonesia. In this case, nobody has more power than Soeharto himself. Yet the President, two of his brothers, five of his children and one grand-child are the most reluctant to make the necessary sacrifices, due to their logging operations, oil palm plantations, a mega-project to convert 200,000 Ha of peat swamps in Central Kalimantan into rice fields for transmigrants from overcrowded Java, coal mines, pulp and paper production, as well as palm oil marketing.
Many of those companies were targetted when the Forestry Department issued a list of 176 companies, which had fires burning on their properties. On October 3, licences were revoked for 29 of those companies, since they still had not managed to extinguish those fires. Several companies in Kalimantan owned by Soeharto's charities and managed by the timber tycoon Bob Hasan were among those 29. So were companies from the Raja Garuda Mas (RGM) Group in Sumatra, owned by another business man, Sukanto Tanoto, who also has joint ventures with Soeharto's children and in-laws.
The initial Forestry Department blacklist indicates the major culprits of tropical deforestation in Indonesia since the New Order began in 1967. Most are plantation companies, mostly rubber and oil palm, followed by timber estates to grow the raw material for pulp and paper factories. And a smaller group of land- clearing contractors for transmigration schemes exposed tens of thousands of hectares of peat soil, which sprang into flames in the heat of the fires from neighbouring forests and plantations. Oil palm illustrates the power of Indonesia's First Family, since three generations of the Soeharto family are involved this lucrative business. It began in the mid-1980s, through a joint venture of the Salim and Sinar Mas Groups, which involved Soeharto's eldest son, Sigit Harjojudanto, his youngest brother, Tommy Soeharto, and Soeharto's cousin, Sudwikatmono. In the late 1980s, Salim and Sinar Mas split their joint venture and each group developed their own crude palm oil (CPO) division. The Soeharto family interests were still represented in both groups, especially in Salim Group, where apart from Sudwikatmono, two Soeharto siblings, Sigit Harjojudanto and Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, are major shareholders in the group's Bank Central Asia (BCA).
In the meantime, Sinar Mas developed its edible oil division in co-operation with Soeharto's second son, Bambang Trihatmojo, who is also a minor shareholder in a plantation company of another conglomerate close to the First Family, the Bakrie Brothers.
Bambang's younger sister, Siti Hediyati Hariyadi, also got involved in this business. She and her brother-in-law, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, formed a joint venture with a Sino-Malaysian tycoon, Robert Kuok, to open a 44,000 Ha oil palm plantation in South Sumatra in 1994.
This is when the third generation came into the picture. A company owned by Sigit's eldest son, Ari Harjo Wibowo, received a quota from the Indonesian Logistics Board (Bulog) to market 70,000 tonnes of crude palm oil a month, more than the crude palm oil marketing quota for Salim jointly with Sinar Mas.
Ari, however, not only wanted to sell other companies' palm oil but wanted to manage his own plantations. So, the Transmigration Minister gave him a contract to develop an 80,000 Ha oil palm plantation in East Kalimantan, using transmigrants as "captive labour."
Capital was no problem for Ari, as grand-uncle Sudwikatmono would lend to him from Salim's cement factory. And with his First Family connections in March 1996 Ari signed a memorandum of understanding with a Pakistani trading corporation to export US$ 1.24 billion ($ 1.7 billion) worth of crude palm oil to Pakistan.
This oil palm (family) story and the cancerous growth of plantations, timber estates, and mining operations in primary forest land indicate the extent of nepotism of the Soeharto family and its effect on Indonesia's economy and ecology.
This nepotism has often been justified by playing on Indonesian nationalism, by making the people proud of becoming "the largest plywood producer", then "the largest paper and pulp producer", and eventually "the largest oil palm producer" in the world. But this misplaced nationalistic pride has contributed to Indonesia's growing public and private debts, as well as to the displacement of tens of thousands of local farmers and tribal communities by the logging concessions, timber estates, and other mega-projects. And it may also boomerang on the Australian economy and on Australian consumers.
The most immediate effect will be on edible oils. As mentioned, most companies on the Forestry Department blacklist are plantations which were growing, or at least were supposed to grow, oil palm. Most of them were members of the Sinar Mas and Salim Groups, or were involved in marketing arrangements with Sinar Mas, Salim, or Ari Haryo Wibowo's Arha Group. This will affect Goodman Fielder's edible oil supply from Indonesia. This largest Australian food producer has two 50:50 joint ventures with Sinar Mas: one in cooking oil and the other one in snack foods, a total investment of $ 47 million. The first joint venture produces the well-known brands of cooking oil and margarine, Meadow Lea and Mother's Choice. The Indonesian forest fires will force Goodman Fielder – and so ordinary Australian consumers – to pay more for their palm oil-derived margarine, cooking oil, and soap. As an oil palm marketing manager told the Business Times in Singapore, last week, the haze will shrink yields more after the natural three-month cyclical fall in production. Oil palm needs sunlight and rain. The prolonged drought caused by El Nino and the lack of sunlight due to the smog will take their toll on yields in six months time, so he predicted.
The second commodity in Australia which may be hit is paper. The second-largest group of forest fire culprits are the timber estates which were developed to produce the raw material for Indonesia's growing paper and pulp factories. The two largest paper and pulp producers in Indonesia are Raja Garuda Mas and Sinar Mas, which have listed their paper and pulp offshoots in Singapore and New York, respectively, as APRIL (Asia Pacific Resources International) and APP (Asia Pulp & Paper).
With their domestic and overseas mills, these two Indonesian paper tigers have assaulted the Australian market. An Amcor subsidiary, Dalton Fine Paper, is the agent for APP copy paper, while a 42% per cent subsidiary of Amcor, Spicer Paper, is a full range agent for APP. In the coming months, however, the Indonesian assault on the 15,000 tonne paper market in Australia may be slowed by the losses from the burned plantations in Indonesia, which have to be cleared and planted with new seedlings. In the meantime, the ordinary people still have to suffer from the increasing prices due to the plunging rupiah, the foul air left behind by the forest fires, the landslides from denuded hillsides in the coming monsoon rains,the increasing prices of cooking oil and margarine, and the increasing prices of paper – a major problem for tens of millions of school kids.
Sydney Morning Herald - October 14, 1997
Louise Williams, Jakarta – Hot, dry winds across Indonesia have caused a dramatic fourfold increase in forest fires and new smog warnings, after last week's light rains and initial successes in fighting the fires on the ground.
The Ministry of Environment said yesterday that the number of major fires had increased from about 16 to 62 since Friday night, prompting renewed smog warnings in Singapore.
Changing wind patterns have produced strong, hot and dry westerlies which are pushing smoke from fires in Sulawesi into Kalimantan, and smoke from Kalimantan into Sumatra, Singapore and southern Malaysia.
The Singapore Government issued a new smog warning at the weekend as air pollution levels rose above the safe limit.
The Ministry of Environment said the most seriously affected areas were central and west Kalimantan where airports remained closed and dozens of major fires were burning. In central Kalimantan, large tracts of peat are on fire and cannot be easily extinguished even with heavy rain.
Last week, residents of many areas which have suffered the choking smoke haze for two months celebrated rain, but the falls were patchy and light and meteorologists warned that the monsoons would be delayed, probably until next month.
In Sumatra, where Australian water bombers are tackling fires in the far south, two new blazes were reported in Lampung and 21 in South Sumatra. Thick smoke and visibility as low as 10 metres means the planes cannot operate in South Sumatra.
An environmental expert in Kalimantan said the damage to the rainforest would take at least 25 years to repair and predicted devastating floods would accompany the rain.
Indonesia Times - October 10, 1997
Jakarta – Indonesia was urged on Thursday to carefully preserve and manage its peat forests to avoid environmental disasters such as that which has covered much of Southeast Asia in choking smog.
The Secretary-General of the Bogor-based Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jeffery Sayer, told a news conference that burning such forests to clear them for agriculture could pose longer term problems.
He was addressing the Asia-Pacific launch of the World Wide Fund for Nature's (WWF) regional forest map, which showed 88 pct of the region's original forest cover had been lost, Reuters reported.
Sayer highlighted the case of peat forests in Central Kalimantan where President Suharto in 1995 commissioned a mammoth one million hectare (404,694.5 acre) project to convert peat forest into a new rice bowl for his nation of more than 200 million people.
"You can understand that a senior policy maker likes to make a big gesture of putting a million hectares of rice somewhere. It sort of looks good and the intention is probably quite good," Sayer told reporters.
"But what you should really be aiming for is getting a real fine pattern of appropriate use of those areas that are good for rice and forests, but these areas don't come in million hectare lots. They come in little bits," he said.
Sayer said fire had been used to clear the peat swamps in Kalimantan and Sumatra for agriculture in recent months, contributing to the smog covering much of Southeast Asia.
"Part of the strategy should be to impose a moratorium on the use of fire in land clearing by commercial estates and development projects until an effective fire control management system is implemented in the fire-struck areas of Kalimantan and Sumatra," the WWF offices said in a statement.
Sayer said burning peat could send thousands of tons of carbon into the atmosphere.
He said the swamps, which were metres thick, had a key role as they acted like giant sponges absorbing monsoon rains in the wet season and releasing it slowly during the dry season.
"If all those peat lands or even a large proportion of them burn or are otherwise destroyed there will be many long term implications for the hydrological cycles of the areas concerned," Sayer said. "People living downstream will have floods and droughts that are much more severe than they have in the past," he said.
Indonesian Planning Minister Ginandjar Kartasasmita said a year ago the government planned to plant 640,000 hectares of rice in the special zone to maintain self-sufficiency, with the rest used for other crops and infrastructure.
More than 10,000 families from other over-crowded islands such as Java and Bali would be brought in under the government's transmigration scheme to work the first 20,000 hectares, he said.
Sayer said the government was planning to import two tonnes of rock phosphate per hectare to Central Kalimantan to make the former peat swamp forest fertile.
"It is known that the peat swamps are very difficult to convert to sustainable agriculture as they need huge inputs of fertiliser as if the peat does not burn it oxidizes as you dry it up and you eventually get down to sand acid soils underneath," he said.
"Maybe the investment would be better spent intensifying agriculture on other lands with more potential ... (such as) ... parts of Java and Sumatra?" he asked.
| Labour issues |
Suara Pembaruan - October 16, 1997
There will be many redundancies in the industrial sector if businesses are forced to close down because of the present tight money policy, said Adi Putra Tahir, who heads the Organisation Dept of the business association, KADIN. He said that the first thing businesses do when facing cash-flow problems is to lay off employees.
He said the current tight money policy has led to stagnation in many sectors of the economy. The fact is that many businesses rely heavily on bank loans to finance their day to day operations, but now banks are charging 37 per cent on loans, with some setting an even higher rate. Yet in Thailand which has also been struck by a monetary crisis, the prevailing interest rate is only 17 per cent. 'It's up to the government to help businesses because the value of the currency is determined by market forces,' he said.
The situation could worsen in the near future as various holidays approach. On such occasions, workers raise demands for special bonuses but the employers will not have the cash to meet these demands.
Meanwhile construction companies are also facing stagnation because of the sharp increase in the cost of raw materials. According to the figures given, raw material prices have increased by thirty per cent and in some cases as much as fifty per cent, as a result of the fall in the value of the rupiah. The price rises have occurred across a range of domestic and imported materials.
Construction businesses working under contract with the government say the only way to resolve their problems is for the government to revise costs written into their contracts, otherwise there will be many bankruptcies.
Jakarta Post - 9 October, 1997
Jakarta – One hundred construction workers have died in work- related accidents in the city [of Jakarta] already this year. Last year 101 workers died.
The latest victim was Khafidz, a tower crane operator at a 24- story project in Kuningan, South Jakarta. He died instantly when the crane's cab plunged 70 meters to the ground Monday. It is believed that the accident happened because the crane's axis was not functioning properly.
Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital data shows that most work- related deaths happened in August (18 deaths), followed by June and April (15 each), and September (13).
An observer and a city councilor both said poor law enforcement and poor government control was to blame for the high number of deaths.
Teten Masduki, head of the Foundation of the Indonesian Legal Aid Institute's labor division, and Saud Rahman, secretary of Commission D for development affairs, told The Jakarta Post it was time the government improved its control system and stuck to regulations.
Teten said that based on worker's safety regulations, employers failing to abide by laws could be taken to court and charged with criminal and civil offenses. Negligent employers could be charged with committing a corporate crime if they failed to provide adequate safety facilities for their workers, he said. Managements could be tried in civil suits for failing to ensure worker's safety, and their licenses could be revoked.
"Why does the government keep silent about the fact that the number of victims is so high?"
Control system
He said that to improve law enforcement, the Ministry of Manpower should activate its control system. "It still isn't functioning properly," he said.
Sanctions against negligent employers were too lenient and current laws did not anticipate the possibility of corporate crimes. "The large number of deaths in work accidents shows that workers' safety is still insufficiently protected despite the aggressive campaign on safety in construction work," he said.
Saud supported Teten's statement. The government should not give permits to companies which did not meet worker safety requirements, Saud said. He said the fact that 100 workers had died showed that the government's control function was not working properly.
He urged the government to pay more attention to workers' safety. "Don't consider workers as having no value as human beings," he said.
Media Indonesia - October 14, 1997 (Posted by Tapol)
Four thousand five hundred workers at PT Prima Buana Tex which is located in Anggadita, Klari sub-district, West Java held a protest demonstration Monday to complain of inhumane treatment by their employers and the fact that the local branch of the SPSI (the official union) is not functioning.
The workers demonstrated outside the factory holding aloft posters calling for the personnel manager to be sacked and for their sweat and toil to be respected.
The workers were demanding allowances for transport costs and meals. They also protested strongly at the way the personnel manager had dismissed workers after humiliating them. They said that before being dismissed, workers were often forced to take on difficult jobs like cleaning away thick foliage in the premises. Unwilling to do such arduous work, some employees had resigned, thus relieving the company of having to pay severance pay.
In the case of accidents at work, the company was only willing to cover 25 per cent of medical costs. One woman worker had caught her hair in a machine because of lack of safety and was not properly reimbursed. 'Many accidents occur, some of them minor, others more serious, but the company is only prepared to pay very little towards medical costs,' the workers said.
No member of the management was willing to speak to Media Indonesia, to confirm or deny these reports.
Tapol - October 15, 1997
I see this strike as the first action in a wave of actions that could hit the Suharto regime as a direct result of the crisis engulfing the Indonesian economy. Now that the IMF has been called in, new demands will be made on the regime with regard to pet projects of the Suharto Family and cronies.
The IPTN and its boss, Dr B.J. Habibie, who runs all the country's so-called strategic (ie arms) industries, has been in financial difficulties for months, despite special funding provided for several aircraft projects at the discretion of Habibie's patron, Suharto. Even money set aside for reforestation has been syphoned into Habibie projects, amid fierce controversy from the environmental lobby.
Other favoured projects are likely to be hit, with resultant redundancies, as well as the many banks and financial institutions that will be forced into bankruptcy. The result could be a wave of actions among the better paid sections of the labour market.
But the IPTN strike is particularly significant. Here is what many regard as the most prestigious company in the country. Many may have thought that the work force enjoy excellent conditions, many of them being highly-qualified engineers, trained for the country's most advanced hi-tech company. It turns out that they have many grievances against their employer, ranging from discriminatory practices favouring those in higher wage brackets to a virtual pay freeze for many years.
Perhaps even more significant is the fact that their boss happens to be a man with well-known political ambitions, who is angling for nomination as the country's next vice-president. He runs the Muslim intellectuals association, ICMI, which was set up by him to advance the interests of Muslim intellectuals within the bureaucracy. His latest intrigue to win the nomination for vice- president was the decision, which is widely known to have ooriginated from him, to confer a fifth star on three four-star generals, Suharto, the ailing General Nasution, and the founder of the Indonesian army General Sudirman who died fifty years ago. The armed forces were apparently not pleased with this meaningless gesture.
To see Habibie in conflict with his workforce is just part of the amazing shift in perspectives that is taking place in today's very fluid political situation in Indonesia.
Of course, IMF policies will hit poorer Indonesians far more harshly as they begin to bite and the manufacturing industries are hit by the current economic crisis but the first blows are likely to be felt by better-paid workers who until now have by and large not been involved in industrial disputes. [Carmel, TAPOL]
Sydney Morning Herald - October 14, 1997
Louise Williams, Jakarta – Thousands of workers from Indonesia's state aircraft manufacturer held mass demonstrations yesterday, following rumours of impending lay-offs, as an International Monetary Fund team continued talks on rescuing Indonesia's ailing currency.
About 16,000 workers refused a direction to return to work at Pesawat Terbang Nusantara (IPTN) in the West Java city of Bandung, one of several controversial industries likely to be targeted by the IMF due to the heavy losses suffered by the enterprise.
Aircraft manufacturing is the pet project of the Technology Minister, Dr Jusuf Habibie, a protege of President Soeharto. Dr Habibie wants to develop an Indonesian passenger jet.
Critics of IPTN have long argued that Indonesia cannot afford the multi-billion dollar investment when tens of millions still live in poverty.
The recent currency crisis has sharpened the focus on wasteful enterprises, as well as corruption and nepotism in the management of the country's Budget.
Dr Habibie has appointed one of his sons to a top management position, and some of the funding for IPTN has been diverted from the reforestation fund, a tax on timber companies intended to protect the environment.
The workers demonstrating yesterday said they believed at least 20 per cent of the 16,000 IPTN staff would be laid off. Others returned to work but refused to pick up their tools.
Their demands include a salary increase, which they say they have not received for 10 years, and an end to nepotism and corruption within the enterprise.
They also want assurances on redundancy pay.
Witnesses said the noisy protesters tore up pamphlets from Dr Habibie directing a return to work. The strike began last week after it was announced the IMF would help Jakarta in managing the currency crisis and there were mass demonstrations at IPTN.
Yesterday's protests came as the Indonesian currency, the rupiah, plunged again following news that the United States debt-rating firm Standard and Poor's had downgraded Indonesia's long-term debt-rating over the weekend.
It said it was concerned about "steep rises in corporate external indebtedness, which could pressure the Government to provide financial assistance, given the linkages between the public and private sector". It also pointed to the "potentially sizable recapitalisation needs of the financial sector" as well as slower economic growth which would exacerbate existing political tensions in the lead-up to presidential elections early next year.
After recovering moderately last week on news that the Soeharto Government had called for IMF help, the rupiah lost almost 8 per cent early yesterday, pulling other regional currencies down with it.
In London, the Financial Times newspaper said Western diplomats were urging the IMF to co-ordinate a financial rescue package for Indonesia worth $US12 billion ($16.3 billion).
The report said the package would be much larger than the estimated $US4 billion originally expected, and suggested Indonesia's exposure on US dollar debt might be more serious than previously thought.
Tapol - October 12, 1997
[From Media Indonesia 10 Ooctober and Kompas 11 October 1997, Summarised.]
Thousands of workers at Indonesia's prestigious aerospace industry, IPTN, went on strike on Wednesday, forcing the management to shut the factory down till the end of the week. The lock-out did not prevent workers from entering the premises and pressing their demands in front of the central management office.
It appears that most if not all the 15,000-strong workforce were involved in the action.
Media reported that on Thursday, the protests were better organised than on the previous day, with banners and posters unfurled and workers banging tins, oil-drums and other metal containers.
Police and military were on hand but did nothing to prevent the protests from going ahead. But they made contact with president- director B.J. Habibie who was in Jakarta who rushed to Bandung, where the factory is situated, to hold discussions with the workers.
The workers presented ten demands and decided that they would give the management till Monday to respond to these demands. They said they might suspend their actions while discussions were underway but would resume if by Monday, the demands had not been met.
The key demand is for a 200 per cent increase in wages and for the non-discriminatory allowances such as incentives, coverage of medical costs and so on, to ensure that those receiving higher wages do not enjoy favourable rates. They are also demanding that medical costs for employees and their families should be covered fully by the company. Another demand is for the company cooperative to be run by the workforce. Also, promotions should be performance-related and not based on family connections.
After holding talks with 124 workers, representing the 31 divisions in the factory, Habibie promised to lift restrictions on coverage of medical costs for employees and their families. At present the ceiling for refunding medical costs for lower-level employees is Rp 200,000 while for top-level personnel, it is one million rupiah.
Claiming that he 'fully understands' their complaints, the IPTN boss said that it would be extremely difficult for the company to meet the other demands because of the parlous state of the finances of the strategic industries (all of which are under his control). He said he would be unable to take decisions on the other demands without consulting the share-holders and the government.
[This is the first time to our knowledge that workers at Indonesia's most prestigious industry have been involved in industrial action. The company, run by one of Suharto's closest cronies, B.J. Habibie, is handling highly-favoured projects funded by the state, on Suharto's explicit instructions. This strike action will help explode the myth that the IPTN is an efficiently-run company with a well-paid workforce enjoying the benefits of working for the country's technically most advanced company.]
| Human rights/law |
Tapol - October 12, 1997
[Media Indonesia, 10 October 1997, Summary only]
The trial of Muchtar Pakpahan, chairperson of the Indonesian Prosperity Trade Union, the SBSI, was halted Thursday when the defendant was unable to continue because of ill health. [The report does not explain what exactly happened in the courtroom.] The presiding-judge announced that the hearing would be postponed till next week.
The defendant collapsed as a witness named Tumpal was being examined about the book, Portrait of Indonesia by Pakpahan, which was published in 1996. The author states in the book that a referendum should be held in East Timor to determine whether the people want independence or integration. These remarks about East Timor have been a main focus throughout the court hearings.
The witness told the court that as far as he knew, the book had never been banned by the authorities which is why he went ahead with printing a second edition. It would have been easy for his company to be informed of any ban as its address is clearly stated in the book.
Two other witnesses, Mulyono, Pakpahan's personal assistant, and Budi Susilo from the SBSI in Lampung both told the court they did not know what Pakpahan had said when he spoke at the free-speech forum at the headquarters of the PDI before the premises were raided by the police on 27 July last year.
| Social unrest |
South China Morning Post - October 15, 1997
Jenny Grant, Jakarta – Popular Muslim figures have criticised the Government for failing to provide moral leadership in a time of economic and social crisis and warned it could face mass demonstrations if it does not listen to the people.
Amien Rais, leader of the 28 million-strong Muhammadiyah movement, said Indonesian leaders suffered from "power arrogance" and needed to return to a moral governance.
"The Government must be held responsible for the forest fires, the transport disasters and the rupiah decline. Our leaders must return to moral fundamentals," said Mr Rais.
Jakarta's inaction over food and water shortages, smoke from forest fires and a high-cost economy had added to the nation's currency pains, he said.
The rupiah has halved in value against foreign currencies since July, forcing up the prices of food and putting pressure on cash-strapped firms to sack workers.
Mr Rais said there was now a "wide and glaring gap" between the rhetoric of President Suharto's New Order and reality.
Abdurrahman Wahid, head of the 30 million-member Nahdlatul Ulama, said the political situation was reaching a "hazardous" level before the Peoples' Consultative Assembly in March.
Mr Wahid said although his group assisted with a smooth general election campaign in May, his members would not accept any unconstitutional acts by the executive or Parliament.
"We would use our mass strength to stop that. If one million people march down the street, whoever caused the trouble will run away," said Mr Wahid, whose grassroots group has strong support from schools and preachers in local mosques.
The poor would be the worst affected by a tumbling rupiah and rising inflation and might take action to demand change if the economy got any worse, said Mr Rais.
"The underclass and the underemployed are the silent majority who are frustrated economically and socially.
"They are a mass with the potential to mobilise themselves on to the streets," he said. "People power cannot be ruled out in Indonesia any more."
Last week Muslims held a lecture in front of hundreds of people at a South Jakarta mosque. They said the national woes were a warning to the Government to become more accountable.
Power was a "mandate from Allah" and no matter how strong, it would one day be taken back, the Muslim preachers said.
Mr Suharto has been in power for 32 years. Presidential elections next year are expected to appoint him to a seventh consecutive term.
Analysts said Indonesians were turning to Islam for a new voice of moral authority, adding any hopes for political opposition were destroyed when popular pro-democracy leader Megawati Sukarnoputri was excluded from the new Parliament.
About 90 per cent of Indonesia's 200 million people follow Islam.
Sydney Morning Herald, - October 15, 1997
Louise Williams, Jakarta – Rising prices, cutbacks in health services and lay-offs resulting from economic reforms to be pushed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will hit Indonesia's poor and could fuel social unrest, a group of non- government organisations said yesterday. The WAHLI coalition of environmental and grassroots organisations said measures sought by the IMF in exchange for a program to rescue Indonesia's corporate sector from the currency crisis were expected to be severe. "Fuel subsidies will be stopped, government expenditure reduced - we are afraid the spending on hospitals, local clinics and schools will be cut back," WAHLI's executive director, Ms Emmy Hafild, said.
The expected increase in fuel prices would affect transport costs and push up the price of all basic commodities, she said. The downturn in the labour-intensive construction industry would force lay-offs and further labour unrest should be expected. "Those who will sacrifice the most will be the poorest. But the business groups with vested interests will continue to receive special rights to exploit the nation's national resources," Ms Hafild said of Indonesia's dominant corporate sector, with its powerful political connections.
WAHLI said it feared increasing violence in Indonesian society as the stresses of vast forest fires and the severe drought, combined with spending cutbacks, began to affect ordinary people, already suffering under unemployment rates of 38 per cent. "What we are worried about is that the usual climax of fires and long periods of drought is famine and crop failures. There could be a long period of unrest."
The IMF, the World Bank and officials of the Soeharto Government continued closed- door meetings in Jakarta yesterday. The rupiah, pushed to an all-time low last week ahead of the call for IMF assistance, held on to modest gains, but remained well below its previous value.
WAHLI said its own investigation into the forest fires which continue to burn across parts of Indonesia showed that more than 1.1 million hectares of forest have been lost, compared with the 400,000 hectares conceded by the Government.
Environment Ministry officials warned on Monday that the haze and fire problem was not over, after the number of fires sharply increased as a very hot, dry and windy weather pattern settled across Indonesia.
WAHLI said the Government had instructed local newspaper editors to stop blaming big timber and plantation companies and to instead blame the El Nino pattern.
Ms Hafild said the group was not confident that threats against big companies which started the fires as a means of cheap and quick land clearing would be prosecuted, nor that any fundamental changes would be made to prevent a repeat of this year's environmental disaster.
She said about 97 per cent of Indonesia's wood product exports were produced using virgin rainforest and that renewable timber plantations had not yet matured.
"The haze and forest fire problem runs parallel to the financial crisis. The fundamentals of both are the distortion of the economy, monopolies and vested interests in the economy which have not been addressed."
Suara Pembaruan - October 12, 1997 (Posted by Tapol)
A number of hotels in Kuta tourist complex, Bali, were burned down in a series of fires that engulfed four hotels and a group of tourist cottages. The fires took hold at around 2.30pm and were not put out until about four hours later. Fire engines had difficulty reaching the locations because of the narrow roads.
The total damage is thought to run into billions of rupiahs; there were no casualties as guests were on the beach at the time. The fires are being described as the largest in the tourist island for a number of years.
Three days earlier, on Tuesday last week, a discoteque was also burned down, inflicting heavy losses for the proprietor.
The police are are questioning three people about the fires.
[The report makes no attempt to assess possible motivation for the fires but it may well be that these are actions by local people unhappy at the way their island has been taken over by the tourist trade, with many hotels owned by members of the well- connected elite in Indonesia, not least by members of the Suharto Family.]
| Economy and investment |
Businees Week - October 27, 1997
Michael Shari in Jakarta, with Joyce Barnathan in Hong Kong – The 60 Indonesian blue-chip company executives summoned to Bank Indonesia, the country's central bank, on Oct. 10 all had something in common. Soedradjat Djiwandono, governor of Bank Indonesia, suspected that each of their companies had at least $100 million in offshore debt, much of it unreported on their balance sheets. So the governor gave them each a blank form asking them to report their debts.
It's hard to think which is scarier: that Indonesia's companies may have billions in hidden hard-currency debt they can't repay, given the collapse of the rupiah–or that the governor of the central bank is reduced to handing out blank forms to find out what's going on. Either way, the tle illustrates the severity of the crisis. Before International Monetary Fund officials can give Indonesia a standby loan, the IMF must find out how steep the country's debts are. No one is sure. The best estimate is that companies owe more than $60 billion, in addition to the $100 billion owed by the government. What's certain is a slowdown in growth and a new challenge for President Suharto and his inner circle.
Infighting
The tumult is coming at a risky time for the 76-year-old Suharto. To secure the wealth and power of his family and associates, he wants his eldest daughter, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, or Tutut, to succeed him. But the success of his 32-year regime has depended on delivering year after year of solid economic growth–enough to have kept the people content and their anger contained as Suharto's associates enriched themselves. "Suharto is still strong, but his critics can now force him to realize there are limits to his ability to maintain power," says Abdurrahman Wahid, chairman of the 34-million-member Islamic mass organization Nahdlatul Ulama. Adds a Jakarta-based analyst: "The legitimacy of the regime is in question."
The anxiety is already creating divisions inside the regime. Senior officials of the ruling Golkar party report that Suharto's ministers have quarrelled over which of their pet projects would get the ax if the IMF pushes for cuts in state spending. Tension has reached such levels that Research & Technology Minister B.J. Habibie, long a Suharto protege, is under pressure. He complains "manipulators" fabricated a story that his fellow ministers shouted him down in front of Suharto at an Oct. 10 cabinet meeting for insisting his projects be spared any cuts. "Nobody dares to do that," he says. Habibie's airplane factory and shipyard have lost billions of dollars.
Southeast Asia's largest economy has tumbled to depths no one anticipated. The region's currency crisis has dragged the value of the Indonesian rupiah down nearly 40% since July. The central bank has driven up lending rates to 40% to protect the currency. Now, the economy is at risk. "Nobody can borrow at these rates. Business is stagnant. In another two weeks, you'll see factories grind to a halt," says Fadel Muhammad, chief executive of Bukaka Teknik Utama, which manufactures airport equipment.
Downgrades
Poor financial disclosure has added to the evaporation of confidence. Bank Indonesia, the only source of statistics on the economy, lacks the regulatory teeth to force well-connected banks to disclose details of their offshore loans. "We have some data, but we found it is not good enough," admits central banker Djiwandono. That begs the question of how bad things really are in the Indonesian economy. Citing fears of undisclosed debt, Standard & Poor's Corp. and Moody's Investors Service recently downgraded ratings for large Indonesian banks, including Bank Negara Indonesia, the biggest.
Also of great concern are white elephant projects linked to Suharto's family. The national car program, run by Suharto son Hutomo Mandala Putra, or Tommy, is slated to receive $690 million in loans from a consortium of Indonesian banks to start assembling cars. But the plan is unlikely to turn a profit in order to repay the debt. In addition, there are fears the government will be asked to shoulder $400 million in losses at Chandra Asri, a petrochemical plant run by Suharto son Bambang Trihatmodjo, industry sources say.
Some companies are taking drastic steps to get their money out. Salim Group, Indonesia's largest conglomerate, moved control over $1 billion worth of equity in a core subsidiary, Indofood Sukses Makmur, to a Singapore-listed company in July. Such a strategy is designed to keep assets out of the hands of a post-Suharto government. "This is a clear case of capital flight," says a Singapore-based economist.
Yet shielding assets makes sense to Indonesians, who remember that the fall of Suharto's predecessor, President Sukarno, in 1965 was preceded by the central bank's revaluation of 1,000 rupiah to 1. Recent scenes at bank tellers' windows have been tumultuous. On Oct. 9, a secretary on a routine errand waited nearly three hours in line at a Jakarta branch of Bank Central Asia, which is controlled by Suharto son Sigit and the Salim family. In front of her, scores of edgy Indonesians changed suitcases and rucksacks full of rupiah notes into dollars. One customer changed 300 million rupiah, or $83,000 at current rates.
Suharto is taking action to halt the anxiety and lock in at least 5% growth next year–the level needed to guarantee steady employment. He has called out of retirement Widjojo Nitisastro, an economist educated at the University of California at Berkeley who advised the Suharto regime in its early years. Widjojo heads a new council whose authority overrides that of the Finance Minister and central bank governor. Its mandate is to hammer out a deal with the IMF to obtain aid for the central bank, which will then lend the funds to overextended banks and companies. "Suharto knows he must not repeat history," says local analyst Christianto Wibisono. "He is willing to sacrifice his prestige for survival."
"Naive."
There are other mildly encouraging signs. Suharto postponed $12 billion worth of infrastructure projects, including a bridge linking Java with Sumatra, and the $560 million Jakarta Tower.
The last thing Suharto wants to do is move against his kids. "He trusts them. He is naive," says an economist who tracks the family's investments. More important, the President does not want to harm Tutut, who is rising fast through the Golkar leadership. "This is the key to his family's future," says a senior ruling party leader.
But for the first time in 32 years, Suharto's stature has weakened to the point that Vice-President Try Sutrisno, a Suharto protege who is entrusted with guarding the family empire, is under attack from ministers who hope to replace Sutrisno at the end of his term in March, say sources who are close to the palace. Islamic leader Wahid says that Suharto may not be able to last as long as he intends to as President. "Clearly, the [regime] has run its course," says Dewi Fortuna Anwar, senior economist at the government-run Indonesian Institute of Sciences. "If this crisis doesn't dent it, I don't know what will."
Suharto's best bet to ensure his daughter's political future is to move fast on reforms. "Indonesia needs good governance," says Jusuf Wanandi, head of the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Jakarta. "The system must be credible, transparent, and consistent" to gain public support for the IMF's "strong medicine." Such moves would be a good way to make the medicine palatable.
Financial Times - October 13, 1997
Quentin Peel and Sander Thoenes, Jakarta –
Western diplomats in Jakarta are urging the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to co-ordinate a largescale rescue package for Indonesia - worth at least $12bn (=A37.4bn) - provided President ' Suharto accepts tough conditions to curb corruption.
The size of the proposed package would be large enough to defend the rupiah, the Indonesian currency, which faces pressure from demands to repay the still unquantified short-term debts run up by the country's sprawling industrial and banking groups.
It would be much larger than the $4bn credit facility mooted last week when the Indonesian government appealed to the IMF and the Bank for help in the face of a 32 per cent decline in the currency since August.
However, the proposed deal would require radical reform of central bank supervision of commercial banks, stricter rules to ensure transparency of government contracts and curbs on state and private monopolies.
Such regulation could affect the activities of many of President Suharto's family and associates, who control some of the most lucrative business sectors in the rapidly-growing economy.
"I don't think anyone realises the enormity of the decision," said a senior western diplomat. "They have just entered the highest-stakes poker game they have ever played. An extremely proud man has been persuaded to go along with it [the approach to the IMF and the Bank]. But they can't be sure how Suharto will react next."
Senior Indonesian government ministers have suggested a credit package could be put together under the IMF's extended fund facility involving relatively mild conditions. But western diplomats and bankers believe that unlikely. They recognise Indonesia has pursued sensible macro-economic policies in recent years, but are convinced action is needed to curb corruption and to impose stricter regulation on the private and state sectors.
The tough-but-generous strategy was proposed as the first IMF officials arrived in Indonesia to draw up details of the assistance programme, which may involve the Asian Development Bank and bilateral credit facilities from other governments.
"The Fund and the Bank are not going to soft-pedal. They are sure to go after good governance," said a western diplomat.
| Politics |
Sydney Morning Herald - October 18, 1997
With Indonesia's President Soeharto nominated by his Golkar party this week for a seventh five-year term, his unopposed re-election by a largely hand-picked assembly seems certain, barring ill- health. But as Herald correspondent Louise Williams reports from Jakarta, many opinion leaders are looking for more openness in the tightly controlled New Order political system.
This week Indonesia's President Soeharto was formally nominated for a seventh five-year term beginning next March. Precedents point to the 76-year-old leader being re-elected unopposed by a largely handpicked national assembly.
But few believe it will be business as usual.
Soeharto must eventually leave the scene and democratic change must come. The pressures in Indonesian society are too great to maintain the status quo, according to a range of prominent Indonesians representing the armed forces, mainstream politics and the opposition.
The most crucial question is how change will be ushered in and what will be the obstacles along the way.
Many hold genuine fears of chaos and communal violence if radical change is pushed, and argue that democratisation must be slow and incremental over a decade or more. Others say the status quo must be challenged openly, now, because the longer change is delayed the greater the danger of explosive social tensions in the future.
Will the same political elite be willing or able to accommodate rising demands for justice and democratisation and take its reign into the post-Soeharto era? Or will the end of the Soeharto rule mean an undignified scramble to get on the last gravy train - a last-minute rush to shore up personal interests before the opportunity is lost? Will the demands for change be channelled into a coherent pro-democracy mass movement, or destructive, random violence?
And then, who will pay the price for the excesses of the past 30 years?
There is a tired old joke that is trotted out each time Indonesia's five-yearly presidential elections come around and the same candidate is put forward to be elected unopposed.
This year, ahead of next year's election, the joke goes like this: "President Soeharto will give up power in 98. No, not next year. When he is 98."
Amien Rais, head of the 28-million strong Islamic Muhammadiyah, believes change must begin now: "What I am trying to say is, "please do not underestimate the anger and the power of the people', and I really hope that those who hold power now are wise enough to read the developments with clear glasses, so they have a clear understanding of their own society. "The aspirations for change are now very, very high, it cannot be contained any longer."
Change is already occurring. More people are willing to confront old taboos and rail against corruption, inefficiency, pollution, low wages, and even the accumulated fortune of the family of Soeharto, Indonesia's modern-day king.
The biggest challenge, though, is how change can be managed.
Soeharto is more than a president, he is a father figure of significant authority. His own success in staying in power, in balancing those who might oppose him off against each other and in co-opting or crushing his enemies has left Indonesia without an obvious understudy and with a political culture based on personality.
"For me a political system based on accountability to the people, that allows participation and is transparent is the ideal," says Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political analyst and the co-author ofa study on Indonesia's future. "I am not so pessimistic, I do believe that in the medium term, say 15 years, we can achieve that, though the process will not be as smooth as we would like," Ms Anwar said.
"You are probably going to see the power-holders trying to maintain the status quo because nobody wants to give up power voluntarily. They won't want to give way to the demands of the workers, or the farmers or students and will try to maintain as much control as possible."
Anwar says she expects more protests and sporadic riots in the short term but her longer-term optimism stems from the inevitable realisation that must come from both sides. She believes that the political elite must eventually concede they can no longer monopolise power when the people are willing to challenge them, even in the face of a formidable security apparatus, and the people themselves will realise that riots and economic chaos only bring more suffering. Indonesians are reluctant to publicly discuss the specific changes needed, because doing so directly criticises the present system of the Soeharto Government and, as such, can be interpreted as the crime of sedition.
But, Anwar said, Indonesia's 1945 Constitution was basically sound, and could accommodate democratic changes.
"I consider democracy to be a universal concept. In terms of substance I would not see any major differences between the desirable democratic system in Indonesia and a Western democracy," she said, rejecting the notion that the direct contests of parliamentary democracy were unsuitable for "Asian" cultures.
Issues that must be dealt with, she said, were limits on the number of political parties, laws which allowed the Government to revoke press licences, limits on trade unions and the right to protest and strike, and the dominant power of the President.
Many academics and activists also single out subversion laws, which allow detention without trial for up to a year. The laws were originally intended, they argue, to protect the State from armed uprisings. Now they are being used to gag government critics. But perhaps most crucial is the discussion of a future limit on the number of terms a president can serve. The present Constitution does not set any limit on how long one leader can serve. Many believe the post-Soeharto era must include a two-term limit. Recently, one of the President's own Cabinet members has spoken up in favour of a 10-year limit. Marzuki Darusman, a Human Rights Commissioner and former MP for the ruling Golkar party, believes the Constitution is sound, but says the current political structure is not.
The three-party political system must be widened to accommodate new groups, he said. The legal system was in place, but it needed to be seen as an independent arbiter, not a submissive political tool of the regime.
A future system, he said, must allow the powerful armed forces a political role, because of their historical position in the Soeharto Government.
"We should not force the marginalisation of the armed forces for the sake of democratic ideals - that will be an important challenge for intellectuals. We need to co-opt the armed forces into the system, not allow them to roam around outside the system." Adi Sasono, general-secretary of the Indonesian Council of Muslim Intellectuals, says that individual human rights must be recognised in new legislation, that the wealth gap must be narrowed through affirmative action programs for the poor and that environmental laws must be strengthened to prevent short- term exploitation of the natural resources destroying the future.
The Parliament, too, must dare to fulfil its function. Theoretically, the President is answerable to the Parliament, but the reality of power means the Parliament has never originated new legislation and serves to rubber stamp the decisions of the Soeharto regime.
But Goenawan Mohamad, the former editor of the banned Tempo magazine, said he did not believe the political elite were willing or able to accommodate meaningful change. "The tragic thing about Indonesia is that nobody has an agenda for the future, including the pro-democracy groups. On the one hand you have this decaying regime and on the other you have no alternative, no vision of ways of solving our problems.
"I don't work on political models, my theory works on pragmatic steps, every single mistake should be addressed and you can't do that with a government that can't be voted out of power."
Abdurrachman Wahid, the charismatic leader of Indonesia's biggest Muslim organisation, says that he too fears for the future, especially the next 10 years.
Wahid is one of the founding members of the Forum for Democracy and a long-time critic of the Soeharto Government, but believes the times are too perilous for agitation. "One of the most important things is to be realistic," he said. "We cannot idealise one thing for Indonesia and hope that it will materialise out of a vacuum. That is impossible. What we have to do is to progress incrementally towards democracy, and we have to be ready to carry out the process in stages."
Wahid believes Indonesia is facing very bleak economic prospects for the next decade which will place a burden on the political situation and heighten the risks that political competition could degenerate into violent conflicts.
"We cannot hope for an improving situation democracy-wise. I think the next 10 years will be fraught with all kinds of problems and conflicts which could easily end up in wide-scale riots which will be channelled into religious and ethnic conflicts.
"That is why, in my thinking, the insistence of my activist friends that we have to pressure the Government more could end in catastrophe."
And he warns: "If the Government responds with repression then the protest will spread, people are aware of the great burden they are carrying, every day there are hundreds of work stoppages and people are taking things into their own hands. The elite will have to take into account that using more repression will create more opposition." Emmy Hafild, executive director of the WALHI group, a coalition of environmental and grassroots organisations, says business cannot continue as usual.
"We need a strong civil society and we demand the Government be ready for it," she said. "We need new ideas, new concepts and new leaders. Sudden change in Indonesia is not unprecedented. We are seeing a build-up of the need for change, not only from the middle class but from the lower classes. It may take five years or more but I am afraid of more violence if there is no change."
But, says General Rudini, head of the Indonesian Centre for Strategic Studies, change should be practical, not political. A system was in place, so make it work and make it fair. If the Government provided free schools, then stop teachers from charging for places; if the police took bribes, then discipline them.
General Yunus Yosfiah, head of social political affairs for the armed forces, was the only person interviewed who saw problems in terms of "clandestine forces", rather than genuine and widespread social problems. "The basic meaning of democracy in the West and democracy in Indonesia is quite different. We believe in national consensus, not confrontation," he said.
"Yes, there are a lot of problems in this country - discipline, morality, the impact of globalisation and industrialisation.
"But I believe the main reason for the increase in riots is the clandestine movement - they want to change the system to a Western-style system, or even communism," he said.
But his predecessor, General Syarwan, was less sure. "If we hold on too hard to the security approach then the people will push harder," he said.
"We must open, but if we open too fast there is a risk that some parts of society are not ready to use that democratic openness and things can get out of control."
Romo Mangun, a Catholic priest and social worker, says: "There is a kind of psychology in Indonesia of an eternal emergency, and everybody is afraid of Balkanisation. Thirty years of brainwashing has taught all the people, even the smartest and most scientific, that we need a strong authoritarian government, otherwise we will have anarchy. I can understand that feeling because we are a nation of 200 million people. That fear is perhaps the biggest obstacle to democracy." Others believe pride is an obstacle to change.
"The next 10 years will be tough on us all," said Romo Mudji Sutrisno, another Catholic priest. "We have to have the courage to admit that our face is now covered with scratches, and have the humility to look at ourselves and straighten ourselves up. But I am very pessimistic about the future."
But some do believe the current regime can yield to pressure in a way which will determine its survival.
"Soeharto can make mistakes, but he can yield in a sophisticated way. It is a fallacy that there can be no change under Soeharto," Wahid says.
"Soeharto is a smart politician, he knows well when to start change without risking political instability," Islamic Muhammadiyah's Rais says.
"President Soeharto has always been much more powerful than Marcos [the deposed former president of the Philippines] and much more successful, people don't feel that same kind of resentment," says Anwar, arguing that a dramatic people's power revolution is unlikely.
Many analysts argue that the determination of the elite to maintain power for their own personal economic gain is a major barrier to change.
That is possible, says Marzuki Darusman. There are two scenarios: either Soeharto is stubbornly staying on to protect his family's substantial business interests, or the people around him who have gained so much are pushing him to stay on.
"At some point the nation will have to come to terms with its past, how to address the excesses, the chronic problems of governance, the human rights transgressions, the inequalities and regional disparities. These problems cast a very long shadow over current policies," he said.
But, he said, retribution would be subtle; there would be no South Korean-style corruption trials.
"The next government will have to look into the past as a way of legitimising itself, to contrast itself, and will have to go into investigations of past practices identified with the First Family."
Wahid says: "There will be scapegoats. Regardless of whether we point them out, people will have to go. We have to do it. We have to educate people that wrong is wrong and right is right, but not in a confrontationist way that will endanger our own existence." Rais says: "It is useless to expect change from within. I completely disagree that Indonesia has to have a bigger-than-life father figure and that only Soeharto can maintain the balance. He will not live forever, and then what will happen? We will face chaos. "It is wiser for us to start now, to start building a clean government - eliminating corruption, protecting our natural and human resources. If we let Soeharto take a seventh term we are only putting the danger away for the time being and it will become a greater danger in the future.
"I think, though, that power is sweet: once you taste it you don't want to abandon it. Now the situation has reached a difficult position. You have power, money and influence, but it is like riding a tiger. You can't get off, because it might bite back."
Reuters - October 17, 1997
Jim Della-Giacoma, Jakarta – Indonesia's ruling Golkar party has predictably nominated ageing President Suharto to lead the country into the next century, but the question of who will succeed him remains, analysts say.
Suharto, 76, was expected to be the only candidate offered to the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) next March, guaranteeing him a seventh five-year term as leader of the world's fourth most populous nation of 200 million people.
But analysts said public discussion of who will eventually fill his shoes remains largely taboo.
"It's a surprising thing, that except for a few lone voices, there is no thought about what comes after Suharto," one foreign diplomat said.
"You would have thought that this would have been the bread and butter of political debate, but in fact there is very little discussion of it," he said.
The two exceptions to the rule are the iconoclastic scholars heading mainly-Moslem Indonesia's leading Islamic groups, between them representing more than 50 million followers.
Nahdlatul Ulama's Abdurachman Wahid and the Muhammadiyah's Amien Rais, both vocal government critics, have been marginalised by Suharto and noticeably left out of an MPR stacked with the relatives of high officials and other Suharto appointees.
"In politics, the most important agenda is for Indonesia to see a transfer of power from a government whose state leadership is a personalised one to one which is wholly institutionalised," Wahid was quoted as telling the Jakarta Post newspaper this week.
However, in the lead up to the March presidential election, discussion is focused on who Suharto will choose, or accept, as his vice-presidential running mate.
The vice-president would automatically succeed Suharto if the president were to die or was incapacitated.
The present vice-president is former armed forces commander Try Sutrisno, but none of Suharto's deputies have ever served two terms.
While various names are mentioned, no favoured front-runner has emerged for the job. Rais advocates a "national agenda" to protect natural resources, develop human resources, promote clean government, narrow the rich-poor gap and preserve national unity.
He concedes that during Suharto's 30-year rule there has been unprecedented political stability and economic growth, as well as advances in health and life expectancy, but he argues that a "national agenda" is needed as there is more to be done.
"This is the agenda for the post-Suharto era. At the time, we will need an alliance of social and political forces that are clean," Rais, also a university lecturer, told the Jakarta Post.
"This is not something that can be done by the armed forces or by Golkar single handedly. I am sceptical that the current players will be able to carry out the agenda for the nation in the future," he said.
But political analysts say that omnipresent Indonesian armed forces (ABRI), with its unique dual function doctrine giving it both a military and socio-political role, does not have an open strategy for a post-Suharto Indonesia.
Staff at the state-run Indonesian Academy of Scientists complained privately that in a recent discussion with ABRI's socio-political chief, Lieutenant-General Yunus Yosfiah, they got only "New Order speak" and cold war anti-communist rhetoric.
"No one in the military is prepared to say anything, the standard line being it is too dangerous for their careers. One of the consequences of Suharto's dominance is that intellectual political activity in society has dried up," a Western diplomat said.
Rob Lowry, associate director of the Australian Defence Studies Centre, an authority on ABRI, argued in a recent paper that undoubtedly the military did have contingency plans to maintain order during the succession.
"It may also have a very general political contingency plan. However, given Suharto's dominance, it is unlikely to have a detailed political game plan designed to impose a successor or plan for subsequent reforms," Lowry wrote.
"There is unlikely to be any significant political reform, let alone progress towards liberal democracy, before Suharto departs the presidency," he concluded.