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'Trump-like' Indonesian hopeful poised for 2019 presidential bid
Sydney Morning Herald - March 28, 2018
And Prabowo Subianto will help ensure that nationalism, the role of Islam in the world's largest Muslim democracy and race will all feature prominently in the election.
Speculation in the Jakarta press about Prabowo's candidacy is ramping up and well-connected figures in Gerindra, Prabowo's political party, have confirmed to Fairfax Media the former general with a checkered human rights record is likely to announce his run in April.
Talk has also turned to who Prabowo's running mate will be, with Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and former military chief Gatot Nurmantyo among the favourites.
Indonesia's complicated electoral system, which requires a presidential candidate to have the support of 20 per cent of MPs currently in the Parliament, means broad coalitions of political parties are formed to reach that threshold.
Gerindra's allies, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), will likely push hard to nominate one of their own to be Prabowo's running mate.
Australian National University Indonesia expert Dr Marcus Mietzner said that if successful this time round, "Prabowo would be a Trump-like figure: impulsive, populist, erratic and with authoritarian tendencies. There isn't much change in this regard from 2014".
However Mietzner said Prabowo's opponent Joko was no longer "a stark anti-Prabowo alternative. He has absorbed some of the conservatism of his rival. Thus, Indonesia is moving to the right, regardless of who wins".
As in the 2014 election, Joko has a large lead over Prabowo in published opinion polls at this early stage.
He will be relying on the support of his wealthy brother and sections of the business community to throw support, and money, his way to make up ground as he did in what became a very close result last time.
Nationalism, economic populism and the promise he will be a strong leader play a key part in his pitch to voters.
The Jakarta-based political analyst Tobias Basuki, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said it was difficult to label Prabowo's guiding political philosophy as it was a "hodge-podge".
"He is posturing as a nationalist, but in reality he would be much more pragmatic in government," Basuki said.
An example of that populist, nationalist message is a speech, recently posted on his party's Facebook page, in which Prabowo predicted other countries had made studies that suggested Indonesia would not exist by 2030. In fact, that "research" was in fact a sci-fi novel called Ghost Fleet.
Melbourne University Indonesia expert Professor Tim Lindsey said the 2019 election would likely be very volatile, and predicted Prabowo would "run hard" on issues such as race, religion and identity politics.
"If Anies was anointed vice presidential candidate, he would bring a useful combination of Islamic credentials and middle class appeal for Prabowo," he said.
Prabowo has long been a controversial figure in and outside Indonesia after rising through the ranks of the army in the 1970s and 80s. He has been dogged by allegations of involvement in human rights abuses and crackdowns on independence movements in places such as West Papua and East Timor.
He has also admitted that during student protests after the downfall of former dictator Suharto, his military unit "detained" nine pro-democracy activists and tortured them. He has however denied any knowledge of what happened to 13 other activists who disappeared and one who died during the unrest.
As well as losing in 2014, Prabowo attempted to run in 2004 for the Golkar party but was not selected as their candidate, and he was the losing vice presidential candidate in 2009.
Presidential and vice presidential candidates have until August 10 to nominate. The election will be held in April next year.
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