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Silence of the polls as Prabowo pulls ahead in Jakarta race
Sydney Morning Herald - June 25, 2014
But in a twist, one or more of those polls has been withheld from publication, apparently for fear of disheartening the Joko camp and shifting more votes to Mr Prabowo.
A number of sources contacted by Fairfax Media have confirmed that three credible polling organisations have now measured the gap between the two candidates at either within the margin of error, or with Mr Prabowo in the lead.
It's a remarkable turnaround. Until the campaign began, Mr Joko, the popular Jakarta governor, had a double-digit lead.
But Mr Joko has been flat-footed by his opponent's populist rhetoric, bolstered by a big-spending advertising campaign, blanket media coverage from TV stations owned by Mr Prabowo's allies, and a successful "black" campaign of racial and religious smears against Mr Joko.
In early June the Indonesian Survey Institute said his lead had narrowed to 6.3 per cent – down from over 20 per cent earlier in the year. And on Monday, another (less credible) polling company, the Indonesia Survey Institute, showed Mr Prabowo with 51.2 per cent compared to Mr Joko's 48.8 per cent.
But Lowy Insitute research fellow Aaron Connelly wrote on Tuesday that Indonesia's most credible pollsters – the international group CSIS, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, and Indikator – had now judged the race to be neck and neck.
"Prabowo Subianto must now be considered the favourite to win the July 9 presidential election, a result that was unthinkable just a month ago," Mr Connelly wrote.
Fairfax Media has now confirmed with a number of sources that CSIS finalised a poll on June 15 showing a negligible gap between the two campaigns, but has refused for 10 days to release it.
Sources say the reason may be because all three have a foot – either financial or philosophical – in the Joko camp. CSIS executive director Rizal Sukma, a respected international relations expert, briefed Mr Joko for his presidential debate last Sunday.
They fear that publishing the information may prompt even more support to flow to Mr Prabowo in a country where analysts believe a strong "back the winner" mentality exists.
Neither Mr Rizal nor Burhanuddin Muhtadi, of Indikator, responded to calls or texts on the subject, and Saiful Mujani of Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting was in hospital, according to a spokesman.
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