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Jakarta candidate Anies Baswedan surging in polls, but some claim there's a cost
Sydney Morning Herald - February 14, 2017
The cover story predicted that Mr Baswedan – a former student activist opposed to authoritarian leader Suharto, a prominent political analyst and one of Indonesia's youngest university presidents – would be a future leader.
It seems Foresight showed considerable, well, foresight. Seven years later, Mr Baswedan is contesting gubernatorial elections in Jakarta, considered by many a dress rehearsal – or at least a proxy war within the political elite – for Indonesia's 2019 presidential race.
Mr Baswedan's ticket is supported by the Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra), the party chaired by Prabowo Subianto, President Joko Widodo's rival in the 2014 elections.
"Anies... is widely seen as using this election to get his political career back on track, while at the same time testing the water for Prabowo Subianto's next attempt for the presidency in 2019," writes political analyst Yohanes Sulaiman in New Mandala.
And the latest survey from Indikator Politik Indonesia – one of the most trusted polling firms in the country – shows Anies is neck-and-neck with the polarising incumbent Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, better known as Ahok.
As support wanes for the third candidate, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, after several lacklustre debate performances and embarrassing Twitter outbursts by his father, former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Mr Baswedan's popularity is in the ascendant.
Neither Mr Purnama nor Mr Baswedan are expected to win the majority required for victory in the February 15 election, which would mean they would have to face off in a second election in April.
Indikator executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi believes Mr Yudhoyono's votes would flow to Mr Baswedan in a runoff, as supporters of the two Muslim candidates come from similar backgrounds: "We still have two months to go and everything can happen, but based on the current situation the momentum is with Anies."
But at what cost? The Foresight profile said Mr Baswedan's neutral, fair and consistently balanced views had earned him the trust of all communities, including many political elites. "He is a moderate Muslim who consistently stands in the middle, not affiliated with any political party or group," it said.
But Mr Baswedan's moderate reputation has been eroded during the election campaign by his aggressive courting of the Islamist vote.
In January he sparked controversy by giving a speech to the hardline Islam Defenders Front (FPI), which has spearheaded mass rallies in the capital, with protesters calling for Ahok to be jailed and in some instances even killed for allegedly insulting Islam.
At the time one of Mr Baswedan's campaign spokesmen, Anggawira, told Fairfax Media that Mr Baswedan attended meetings with different groups every few days.
"People know where he stands on Islam, it's not something created in one day or visit. His position is well known by everybody, it's clear in the media, he was an activist as a student... he's an educator."
When pressed by Metro TV anchor Najwa Shihab on whether he shared the FPI's belief that Jakarta's governor must be a Muslim, Mr Baswedan replied: "When we talk about verse from the Koran, it's clear, it is stated there. As a Muslim, I abide by al-Ma'ida 51."
It is verse 51 from the fifth sura or chapter of the Koran that has landed Mr Purnama in so much hot water. It is interpreted by some as prohibiting Muslims from living under the leadership of non-Muslims.
Others say the scripture should be understood in its context – a time of war – and not interpreted literally. Islamist hardliners have consistently used the verse to urge Jakartans not to vote for Ahok, who is Christian.
Mr Baswedan and Mr Yudhoyono both attended a "mass prayer" at Istiqlal Mosque, an event some dubbed the "112 [February 11] march", which police eventually allowed on the condition people stay within the mosque and that it not feature any political speech.
This was ignored: religious leaders told the crowd of about 100,000 people to vote for Muslim leaders and participants brandished placards that said things like "It is forbidden to pick an infidel leader".
Mr Baswedan told the BBC he had simply conducted morning prayers and stressed that he had not exploited religious sentiment during the election campaign.
"I never talked about religion, never talked about any sura, not even once. Other people used it and made all of this happen," Mr Baswedan said.
But Indikator pollster Mr Burhanuddin is among those who believe Mr Baswedan has damaged his moderate reputation.
"The only way of beating Ahok is to use religious sentiment because 75 per cent of Jakartans perceive Ahok has done a good job," Mr Burhanuddin said, adding that the strategy had worked for Mr Baswedan up until now.
"For Anies this is really a big game. If he fails to win the election, it is all just finished for him – his reputation as a pluralistic, inclusive Muslim figure is just finished. He is just like other politicians – using everything to win the election even at the cost of his reputation."
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