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Public warned of dubious surveys
Jakarta Post - March 5, 2014
Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Research (Aropi) secretary-general Umar S. Bakry said the number of dubious survey institutions mushroomed ahead of elections and dwindled immediately after.
"There are many survey institutions that are diligent in releasing survey results, but they are seasonal. After the election, they will disappear and the prevailing ones will be the old names," Umar said in a discussion at the General Elections Commission (KPU) here on Tuesday. He said only 32 pollsters had registered with the KPU to be eligible to conduct surveys as well as quick counts.
University of Indonesia (UI) communications expert Ade Armando gave a few examples of pollsters he deemed to be lacking in methodological rigour to the point that their findings were highly questionable.
First was the Indonesian Network Elections Survey (INES), which found through its recent survey that Gerindra Party chief patron Prabowo Subianto was the most popular presidential candidate with an electability rating of 40.8 percent.
"Shockingly, the survey showed that Jokowi had only managed to secure 5.6 percent," Ade said, referring to Jakarta Governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, who has frequently emerged as the front-runner in other surveys.
Second was the People's Synergy for Democracy in Indonesia (Sigma), which asked journalists who they would vote for in the presidential race. Hanura Party chairman Wiranto emerged with the highest electability rating, although other surveys placed him at the bottom of the list.
Third was the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), which named Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie as the most popular candidate in the July 2014 presidential poll.
"The result needs to be questioned since the LSI has deliberately paired Aburizal with Jokowi, in a move allegedly aimed to boost Aburizal's electability," Ade said.
Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys (Persepi) ethics council member Andrinof Chaniago, meanwhile, said the survey should have also asked an open question to respondents who should not have been given a list of candidates, to truly measure candidate electability.
Fourth was the Jakarta Survey Institute (LSJ), which likely steered its respondents to a certain answer when they were asked whether they still believed that the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) was a "clean" party, after its former chairman Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq was arrested for bribery.
Fifth was the Indonesia Research Center (IRC), which twice published an unfinished survey last year.
Lastly, was the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicate (SSS) for conducting a survey through telephone interviews. "The amount of owners of landline phones across Indonesia [is very small]. Therefore, the method cannot be used as it does not fit the criteria of random sampling and does not represent the Indonesian people as a whole," he said.
Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/03/05/public-warned-dubious-surveys.html.
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