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Presidential showdown seen narrowing to two parties: Gerindra, PDI-P
Jakarta Globe - May 13, 2014
Aburizal's decision to support Joko brings an end to his efforts to cozy up to either Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) or President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's ruling Democratic Party.
Just days after his high-profile meeting with Aburizal at his Bogor ranch, which ended in smiles and handshakes, Prabowo opted for Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa, also the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Yudhoyono's in-law, as his running mate, while Joko is widely expected to pick former vice president and Golkar senior figure Jusuf Kalla.
The political landscape ahead of the presidential election in July has now polarized into two power blocs.
The National Democrats (NasDem) and National Awakening Party (PKB) have sided with the PDI-P and Golkar while the United Development Party (PPP), possibly Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and People's Conscience Party (Hanura) have joined Gerindra and PAN. The Democratic Party, however, is still examining its options ahead of its convention to choose its candidate.
Golkar, runner-up of the April 9 legislative election with 14.75 percent of the vote after PDI-P (18.95 percent), announced on Tuesday evening its support for Joko's bid in a symbolic meeting between him and Aburizal.
Joko praised Golkar for not demanding anything in return for its support. "This is pure cooperation," Joko said as he addressed a joint press conference with Aburizal at Gembrong traditional market in East Jakarta. "With Pak ARB [Aburizal], to date there has been no talks on vice presidential candidates or ministers."
Golkar has been engaged in coalition talks with PDI-P after its previous maneuvering towards Gerindra left it empty-handed, following Prabowo's reluctance to make Aburizal his running mate. Golkar's Agung Laksono said Aburizal had been offended by the rejection.
Despite the no-conditions claim, senior Golkar politician Bambang Soesatyo said earlier on Tuesday it would most likely support the nomination of former vice president Jusuf Kalla, also former Golkar chairman, as Joko's running mate.
With his association with both PKB and Nasdem, Kalla has been recommended by both parties for running on Joko's ticket. Kalla is close with Indonesia's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), some of whose senior members founded PKB, while Nasdem chairman Surya Paloh was a member of Golkar when it was headed by Kalla.
"Golkar's move toward PDI-P is in order to strengthen Kalla's nomination as vice president candidate," Bambang told state-run news agency Antara.
"I appreciate ARB's decision to be a kingmaker instead. Besides, Jokowi is more comfortable with JK [Jusuf Kalla] and Aburizal agrees with this," Bambang said, referring to Joko by his popular nickname.
With Kalla being an experienced, highly capable politician, Bambang added, "this coalition offers a better opportunity to win rather than if Golkar forms a new axis."
The other bloc
Gerindra, meanwhile, is expected to officially secure support from the National Mandate Party (PAN) as soon as today, when PAN is slated to hold a national working meeting of the party to be attended by its cadres nationwide.
PAN lawmaker Taslim Chaniago said Hatta was expected to declare his vice presidential bid during Wednesday's meeting. Gerindra itself has repeatedly said Hatta would make a good running mate to Prabowo,
The Gerindra leader further fortified this claim by appearing beside Hatta as the latter submitted his resignation letter as the coordinating minister for the economy to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on Tuesday afternoon.
"Pak Hatta and I want to go forward and earn the people's mandate to continue just and sustainable development," Prabowo told a press conference after the meeting with Yudhoyono.
Prabowo sang Yudhoyono's praises, citing his economic achievements during his 10 years in office. "As a leader of a political party outside the government, I appreciate the achievements," Prabowo said.
"When the global economy experienced difficulties, Indonesia kept recording fairly good growth. And we're now even the world's 10th largest economy. I think this is important."
Prabowo said he wanted to ask Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, which finished fourth in the legislative elections with 10.19 percent vote, to join Gerindra's coalition. "Yes, I want to ask them to join us," Prabowo said when asked whether he would invite the Democrats to join the Gerindra-led coalition.
Gerindra had earlier secured official support from the PPP (6.53 percent), while the PKS is expected to declare its support for Gerindra this week.
Non-bloc?
The Democratic Party has yet to respond to Gerindra's latest invitation and has given no indication of which bloc it prefers to join forces with.
"Their first tendency is to join the PDI-P coalition. But it should be under one condition: they're received by Ibu Mega," said Mohammad Qadari, the executive director of Indo Barometer political survey institute, referring to party chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri.
That will be difficult, though, with the bad blood between Megawati and Yudhoyono in the past, Qodari said. He said it was possible that the Democratic Party joined no bloc and abstain from the race. But with Gerindra's surprise invitation on Tuesday, they may have an option after all.
"A Democrat-Gerindra alliance is possible," Qodari said. "SBY has known Prabowo for a long while. And while Gerindra is outside the current ruling government, Prabowo has called on the members of his party against pressuring the Democrats too hard."
Joko-Kalla leads
A latest survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia, meanwhile, says the Joko-Kalla ticket would lead with as much as 51 percent of the vote if it faced only Prabowo-Hatta as the rival. The second ticket finishes with 32 percent, while 17 percent of respondents said they didn't know which pair to choose.
If three tickets were to run, including Aburizal-Wiranto; the Joko-Kalla partnership would still come out on top, albeit with a lower vote (44 percent), followed by Prabowo-Hatta (29 percent) and Aburizal-Wiranto (12 percent), the survey showed.
"Joko consistently gets the highest results, whether he is paired with Jusuf Kalla or another candidate," Indikator director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said.
[Additional reporting by Erwida Maulia & Novy Lumanauw.]
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