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For Indonesian politics, new year well wishes will be short-lived
Jakarta Globe - December 31, 2014
The Indonesian Survey Circle, or LSI, says Joko's popularity, even among those who voted for him in the July 9 presidential election, suffered a major downturn following the government's decision to raise prices of subsidized fuel by an average of 33.6 percent on Nov. 18.
The LSI, citing the result of its survey conducted shortly after the hikes, said only 45 percent of respondents were satisfied with the government's performance; 44 percent were dissatisfied, while the rest said they did not know or did not answer.
Of those who had cast their votes for Joko and running mate Jusuf Kalla during the election, only 49 percent said they were satisfied, while 42 percent were dissatisfied.
"This indicates that Jokowi's supporters have begun to abandon him after the fuel price increase," LSI said of the survey's findings, referring to the president by his nickname.
"Jokowi's administration hasn't even completed its first 100 days in office, yet the satisfaction level is already less than 50 percent. This is a warning to the Jokowi-J.K. administration," the LSI added in a press statement.
Joko had declared, before announcing the fuel price hikes, that he was ready to risk a loss of popularity as a consequence of diverting Indonesia's burgeoning fuel subsidy funds to other sectors that needed more money, including infrastructure development and social welfare.
Two weeks before the hikes, he launched the Indonesia Health Card, the Indonesia Smart Card and the Prosperous Family Card, as components of the social safety net to cushion the impact of the hikes on Indonesia's most vulnerable: low-income families.
But the LSI said the public doubted that the diverted funds would reach the targeted programs and people. "Rampant corrupt practices and poor bureaucratic culture are the source of their concerns," the pollster said.
The LSI added that most respondents said they had yet to feel any benefit from Joko's ascent to power, with only 27 percent saying they had.
Political analyst Aleksius Jemadu said it was too early for the public to expect to enjoy the outcome of the Joko administration, given that it had not even been in the job for three months. Joko and Kalla were sworn in on Oct. 20.
It will take some time, for instance, for the reallocated funds from the fuel subsidy cuts to reach the targeted programs, and for those programs to have any impact on the community, Aleksius said.
He added that Joko, whose election win was largely attributable to his populist public image, was currently facing real tests in the field where it was not easy to implement the pro-people policies he touted during the election campaign.
However, Aleksius, the dean of Pelita Harapan University's School of Social and Political Sciences, said Joko must stay true to the pro-people image he had built for himself, otherwise his popularity and credibility in the public's eyes would continue to decline.
Regarding the fuel subsidy cut, Aleksius said it was imperative for Joko to explain to the public exactly where the funds would be redirected.
"It must be made clear which ministries will get the diverted subsidy funds, how much each of them will receive, and what their respective plans are for those funds the next year, or in the next five years," he said.
Muhammad Qodari, the executive director of the polling institute Indo Barometer, said Joko must neglect popularity issues for a while, and instead ensure the diverted funds would quickly reach the intended targets.
"Speaking of popularity, it will depend on how quickly and how good the programs are that are being drafted to utilize the diverted subsidy funds," he said.
"The public trust will return after those programs manage to spur good economic growth, as well as tackle inflation and other impacts of the fuel price hikes."
Two or three months ago, analysts would readily have agree that the House would pose the biggest challenge to Joko's administration, given that it is dominated by the opposition Red-White Coalition, or KMP.
The KMP, which also controls the speaker's post and all four deputy speaker seats, has easily won vote after vote, such as the controversial regional elections law and law on legislative bodies.
Through votes, the KMP also managed to snatch all leadership posts in both the House and the People's Consultative Assembly, leaving none to parties in the pro-government Awesome Indonesia Coalition, or KIH – to the chagrin of the latter.
Analysts previously expressed concerns that hostile, aggressive maneuvering of KMP politicians in the House would give the government major obstacles in its enactment of policies that required approval from legislators.
Recent internal turmoil within member parties of the KMP, however, are making the political constellation in the House no longer clear, Qodari said.
He pointed to the case of the United Development Party (PPP) and the Golkar Party, two of the six original members of the opposition bloc, which have been afflicted by "serious" internal discord. The PPP jumped ship to the KIH in early October amid internal conflict which that has since led to a split dual leadership in the party.
In early December, Golkar was also split into two as rival factions within Indonesia's oldest, and second-biggest, party appointed their own executive boards; although this has not gone so far as to cause Golkar to officially switch sides and align with the KIH.
"It is no longer that simple now to map the political constellation in the House, with all the serious, severe internal dynamics of the party members [of the KMP]," Qodari told the Jakarta Globe.
"It used to be black and white. The KMP was the majority, the KIH was the minority. But Golkar and the PPP are divided now; there has been pushing and pulling involving different interests in those parties. And these new variables will determine the future relations between the government and the House," he said.
The conflicting interests can be traced back to events surrounding the July 9 presidential election, when some factions in four political parties in the KMP – including the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) – made repeated public statements that their parties were considering switching to the KIH to support Joko's presidency.
Aleksius said that with the Democrats and PAN scheduled to hold their respective national congresses in the first half of 2015, even their stance with the KMP was not final yet.
The chairman of the Democratic Party, former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, expressed his disappointment with the KMP in early December regarding its stance on direct elections of regional leaders.
Yudhoyono wanted the coalition to stay committed to restoring the direct vote mechanism after a walkout by Democrat legislators in September allowed the rest of the KMP to vote against direct elections; drawing public ire against Yudhoyono.
The congresses next year are expected to make a final decision on the two parties' stance – whether they will stick with the KMP or not through 2019, when Indonesia's next legislative and presidential elections will be held.
Despite the KMP's current rocky state, Qodari said he believed Joko as president still faced a tremendous challenge.
"He's conducting extraordinary political experiments. This had never happened in Indonesia's history before: a president who is not a chairman of a political party, who governs with the support of a minority, not a majority in the House," he said.
The LSI also said that Joko was "facing a threat in becoming the weakest president in Indonesia's history." Qodari said the key solution for Joko to survive the situation was to make sure he won the public's support.
Aleksius, meanwhile, said he believed the conflict in the House offered Joko a good chance to win back the public trust, despite criticism over the fuel price hikes. "Due to the internal party conflicts and the rivalry between the KIH and the KMP, the public's trust in the House is currently wavering," he said.
"So this is actually an opportunity for Jokowi's administration to win the public's support. The situation may reverse, though, if Jokowi fails to make use of this opportunity by showing the public real work and concrete outcomes," he added.
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