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Bakrie sees Golkar election boost from New Order nostalgia
Globe Asia - March 3, 2014
With his background as a businessman and in government as coordinating minister for the economy, it is hardly surprising that economics is high on Aburizal's agenda as the elections loom closer.
Underlining his intentions if he is elected to the presidency is the belief that Indonesia needs to manage its economy correctly by not being too conservative in its monetary and fiscal policy, while sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
"As an example, look at the debt issue. Our debt stands at 25 percent of GDP. People make a lot of noise about our huge debt. They want to lower it by 3 percent. No other nation, or just a few, has such a small ratio of debt to GDP. Usually it's 60 percent or it could even be 300 percent. My point is that we don't have to worry about our debt-to-GDP ratio. If we have a $1 trillion economy, 1 percent would mean $12 billion, 2 percent would mean $24 billion. For me, a debt-to-GDP ratio of 30 percent is good," Aburizal said.
He brushed aside talk that Indonesia's debt would be a burden on future generations. "We are missing Rp 250 trillion [$21.5 billion] in development opportunities with our fear of debt," he said.
High growth, Aburizal said, should not only be generated by domestic consumption or exports of agricultural products. Indonesia should also build its basic industries, he stressed.
"Lakshmi Mittal built his first steel plant in Surabaya in the 1970s and now he is producing 35 million tons of steel," he said. "Indonesia, meanwhile, has Krakatau Steel which only produces two million tons. Even with the new joint venture [with South Korea's Posco], it can only raise production by another million tons.
"Look at the petrochemical industry. We haven't built any refineries and have had to rely on SPC [Singapore Petroleum Company] and Shell. My point is that in 1972, when income per capita was merely $700, we were able to build the Balongan refinery. Now when income per capita is $3,500, we aren't able."
And, he pointed out, without accelerated infrastructure development, economic growth will not exceed 6 percent.
"We must not doubt the need to invest,"Aburizal said. "If the private sector is reluctant to invest due to slow returns and low profitability then the government should take over.
"We can't afford to see another Kuala Namu [the new airport for Medan in North Sumatra]. The airport was completed but there was no toll road to support it. If the private sector looks at business returns, the government should look at the economic returns such as the toll roads or other business that can be created surrounding it. We must be daring and encourage public-private partnership schemes as part of our infrastructure development strategy."
Aburizal insists policies must change, and offers his own road map on the direction to take. For a start, there should be no new energy subsidies.
"Who enjoys the Rp 300 trillion in subsidies? Eighty percent goes to the middle class and up and only 20 percent to lower-income people," he said. "We need direct subsidies to the people for health, working capital, for farmers, people's credit schemes and others. We must not subsidize fertilizer but instead we must subsidize the farmers. We must make lower-income people earn more but spend less."
Experience counts
As an experienced operator in business and politics, Aburizal says he feels he is on firm ground. He implies that another likely contender for the presidency, Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, is a risky choice to lead the country.
"I fear there will be a competition between capabilities and popularity," he said. "This nation cannot be managed by people who are experimenting. It must be managed by experienced people. Governing is not easy."
He takes a tough line on security and law and order. The government, he said, should provide a political umbrella for the police in carrying out their duties.
"It's not right if a law enforcer can't shoot a criminal or a violent rioter because he fears he will be violating human rights," Aburizal said. "In the US or UK, if a criminal is armed, law enforcers shoot.
"Here we see police getting shot and they can't shoot back. If we tolerate this, they will keep burning churches, mosques or sweeping factories to halt production. My point is that law enforcers must not be afraid of violating human rights. We have to maintain security and order."
While many believe the electorate is looking for a younger man, Aburizal at 67 is fitter than most, buoyed by regular sessions of tennis, jogging and swimming. His son Anindya now controls the Bakrie family business media empire, leaving the father to concentrate on politics. As for his choice for vice presidential running mate, Aburizal says there are some clear criteria.
"Number one, they must be Indonesian and have the same idealism as the presidential candidate," he said. "They must not have different views. In some cases, a presidential candidate might get elected but might not be able to run the country. So it's important to have the willingness to work together with the president."
He concedes that he might pick a vice presidential candidate without having to forge a coalition with other parties. That would mean Golkar winning at least 20 percent of the votes on April 9, allowing it to directly nominate its candidate.
Golkar's stance, he said, is not just about winning a percentage of the vote but about winning seats at national, provincial and district levels. "Golkar's strength is outside Java. We are about as strong as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle [PDI-P] but we expect Golkar to win more seats. We are aiming at 170 seats, more than 30 percent [of the 560 House seats]."
Back to the 'good old days'
Aburizal claims many people in the regions yearn for the stable economic conditions under Suharto's New Order regime when prices were still affordable.
"With the present conditions, people's buying power may be twice as high but prices of basic necessities are five times higher," he said. "The rural people still remember the good old days of the New Order. This is why there are so many roadside signs depicting Suharto saying, 'It was better during my time, right?' This was really the case.
"The New Order minus guided democracy becomes real democracy. With decentralization now, many still long for the good old Golkar glory days as in the past. They talk about the absence of social upheaval in the past. There was no Shia-Sunni dichotomy. There was hardly any arson or violent riots. We must be firm and arrest people."
He cited the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping as a leader who knew he must enforce the law. "I am disappointed by the level of drug trafficking," Aburizal said. "We must impose life sentences for traffickers. There should be no amnesty or sentence reductions. We can be like Deng, who said he would not dig up the past but in the future there would be no mercy for corruptors."
On the contentious issue of tax amnesties, Aburizal asked whether the government dared to impose a tax amnesty on cases that violated either civil or criminal law. "We can double our foreign exchange reserves," he said. "More than $100 billion is in bank accounts abroad."
Gauging his chances
Aburizal is satisfied he is eligible to run for the presidency, and can win. "There are only two eligible candidates who can get 30 percent [of the vote]," he said. "They are Aburizal and [PDI-P chairwoman] Megawati Soekarnoputri."
Aburizal pointed out that it would be difficult for other political parties to match Golkar and the PDI-P. "It will be hard for Gerindra, Hanura and the Democratic Party to get 20 percent," he said. "It's also about whether a candidate who has high electability ratings is necessarily eligible. Megawati and Aburizal for sure. Jokowi not yet. Wiranto and Prabowo must wait until April."
Asked whether Megawati would run for president, Aburizal said he didn't know. "I am talking about eligibility. If she wants to run, she is eligible," he said, adding that with the legislative elections now close, it would be very difficult for other contestants to pick up an additional 5 percent through a coalition.
Aburizal was brought up in a rich family and fed with a silver spoon but now talks about helping the poor. Asked what influenced him to embark on the creation of a real people's economy, he responded that he had served as chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin); as coordinating minister for the economy; and as coordinating minister for people's welfare. That last position introduced him to people's suffering, changing him completely as a person.
"It was when I was welfare minister that I had to change course," he said. "I saw the suffering of people from diseases such as AIDS. I also learned what ATM means [AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria]. It is a human development index. I went to Papua, 2,000 meters above sea level. No other ministers had been there. I saw the sufferings of backward Indonesian citizens. We took them spades and hoes to dig their fields. They were happy. They had used wooden tools before. The experience changed me."
Aburizal, born in Jakarta on Nov. 15, 1946, admits he regretted leaving his post as coordinating minister for the economy to become welfare minister.
"I resented [President] SBY for that but it was a blessing in disguise," he said. "I learned what the suffering of the people really was. I was grateful, because it changed my life.
"I got acquainted with the AIDS and bird flu issues. Before I held the welfare post, nobody ever shook hands with AIDS victims. Do you know that 300 people die of tuberculosis every day? Then it was the family planning issue. [Vice president] Jusuf Kalla taught me how to convince people family planning is important."
Is he still involved in the often tortuous maneuvers of his family's companies? "No, I am not lying. Since 2004, I have refrained from doing business completely," he said. "But of course I respond if somebody asks me about my vision. Again, I have to reiterate that I am no longer doing business."
Aburizal also touched on smear campaigns against political opponents, often referred to as "black" campaigns.
"If we are strong, opponents will conduct black campaigns," he said. "But people get tired of black campaigns. Take the case of Lapindo [the Bakrie company whose improperly cased drilling well was blamed for triggering a mud volcano in East Java]. After the verdict of the Supreme Court, many more people know the truth.
"Had it not been for my mother, I would not have compensated the victims of the tragedy. She said God gave me a fortune and I should do good with the wealth. I have spent Rp 9 trillion of my own money. That's life."
Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/bakrie-sees-golkar-election-boost-from-new-order-nostalgia/.
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