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Yingluck faces a political minefield
Straits Times - July 9, 2011
Opinion is mixed on how long it will be before Yingluck Shinawatra's government is destabilized by opposing forces.
When Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva became prime minister in 2008, it took just four months before his government was rocked by major protests by the "Red Shirt" movement fomented by ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
It could be a matter of months for the Puea Thai Party as well. The mood in the rival camp appears sour. On Friday, a Democrat Party candidate filed a petition with the Election Commission demanding dissolution of Puea Thai on grounds that a banned politician – Thaksin – is its de facto leader.
Additionally, a complaint of misconduct – distributing free noodles during the election campaign – has been filed against Yingluck. It took a paltry reimbursement of expenses for a television cooking show to bring down Samak Sundaravej, a previous prime minister aligned with Thaksin, in 2008.
To ensure the honeymoon extends into a semblance of stability, Puea Thai will have to be seen carrying out its election promises, put the idea of allowing Yingluck's big brother, Thaksin, back into Thailand on the back burner and achieve a reconciliation that appeases powerful competing interest groups.
It will not be easy. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission set up by the outgoing government is seen by many as ineffectual, while Thailand remains deeply divided at many levels.
A glance at the voting pattern shows that most of the north and north-east went heavily for Puea Thai while the deep south, the west and a part of central Thailand voted for the Democrats. Bangkok was split between the two.
There is yet another, even more critical, divide – that between the country's old and new orders. And Yingluck is caught in the struggle between the two. How she manages the vicious push and pull of competing interests will be key to how well she does in office.
The parties in play include royalists, the military and right-wing groups suspicious of Puea Thai. Even the Red Shirt movement itself is not a homogenous entity that Yingluck can count on. While it has backed her party, it remains a broad and loose coalition, many parts of which have evolved beyond the issue of Thaksin's return home.
Opposition may build in the bureaucracy – and is already brewing among conservative intellectuals – to overly swift implementation of pro-poor policies; but Puea Thai supporters are keen for it to start delivering on its promises.
Meanwhile, royalists in alliance with the army fear a fundamental shift in the old order. Thaksin's popularity now grafted on to his unexpectedly charismatic sister is seen by them as a potential threat to Thailand's ultimate power – the monarchy itself. That King Bhumibol Adulyadej is a frail 83 years old has added to worries about the future.
What "power brokers in the palace and the military... fear most is losing control of the royal succession," Nicholas Farrelly of the Australian National University wrote earlier this week. "In the waning years of King Bhumibol Adulyadej's 65-year reign, tremendous effort has been expended to guarantee that particular factions are well positioned to manage palace politics."
He added: "Some may still worry that Thaksin and his sister cannot be trusted. Thailand faces a precarious future, wedged awkwardly between democratic process and reactionary impulses. It is now Yingluck's job to balance the interests within her victorious political party with the interests of the country as a whole."
This will take extraordinary diplomacy mixed with realpolitik in a struggle which some analysts say has become a dangerously zero-sum game.
Political science professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak says: "The climate is us or them... There is likely to be a brief period of calm and stability. But when the protagonists fully wake up to what has happened – how the Thaksin clan has returned to power – we will see movement again. And this time, there is more at stake, and more grievances have been accumulated; therefore it will be more difficult to compromise."
Having former top Red Shirt leaders – loathed by much of Bangkok's old elites and upper middle class – in the Cabinet could be a red rag. Yet leaving them out would upset the Red Shirts, which arguably propelled Puea Thai to victory.
Many in the movement also demand justice for its members killed by the army last year in clashes between Red Shirt protesters and troops. Most who died were protesters. But militants apparently on the side of the Red Shirts also killed one of the army's brightest officers, Colonel Romklao Tuwatham, something which his elite Burapha Phayak (Eastern Tigers) colleagues will not forget.
The army will not allow a witch hunt against it. What's more, looming – in September and October – is the annual season of military promotions and reshuffles. All eyes will be on what Yingluck's government will do. It was meddling with army appointments that in part triggered the coup that brought about her brother's downfall in 2006.
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