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Co-ordinated blasts a challenge to Thai junta's tightening grip
Sydney Morning Herald - August 12, 2016
For the first time since the military seized power in a 2014 coup, undeclared forces have launched a violent challenge to the junta. Reaction to the attacks is sure to be brutal.
Targeting bars in Hua Hin, an upscale resort south of Bangkok, ahead of the 84th birthday of Queen Sirikit particularly shocked many Thais. The occasion is celebrated as Thailand's Mother's Day.
The bombings were a short walk from the King and Queen's 1920s-built Klaikangwon (which means "far from worries") beach-front palace.
After a decade of political upheaval, Thailand is facing a difficult political transition at a time of uncertainty about the future of the monarchy, which has become the country's most powerful institution during the reign of 88-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Both the King and Queen are in poor health in Bangkok hospitals.
The military has given itself sweeping powers allowing soldiers to search, detain or arrest anyone or to enter any premises without a warrant.
Tensions had been rising since Sunday's referendum, which endorsed a military-backed constitution and delivered a severe blow to the country's anti-establishment Red Shirt movement.
Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha had urged the country to unite following the referendum but his government ignored calls for the release from jail of dozens of politicians and activists who had criticised the vote.
The vote instead appeared to embolden the government to further crackdown on dissent and freedom of expression. Government agencies announced plans to track the mobile phones of foreign tourists and police moved to get the go-ahead to tap phones without court approval.
Immediate suspicion on who was responsible for the attacks fell on Muslim insurgents who have been waging a decade-long war against the Thai state in its southernmost provinces. Twin bombs planted outside beer bars in Hua Hin were detonated by mobile phones, a practice common among the insurgents.
But if they are responsible, it would mark a change in strategy as the insurgents have rarely launched attacks outside their own areas and have shunned attempts to be aligned with Islamic State and other jihadist groups. Arranging the attacks appears to be beyond their logistical capabilities, some security experts said.
Zachary Abuza, a security expert on South-east Asia at the National War College in Washington, said the timing of the bombings on the Queen's birthday seems to indicate they were politically motivated, especially after what he called the "sham" referendum.
"None of the bombs was meant to kill a lot of people but intended to do harm to the tourist industry," Professor Abuza says. "As much as the junta has convinced itself that it is legitimate following the referendum, their Achilles heel is the economy, especially among their core supporters," he said.
Tourism is the only bright spot in Thailand's sluggish economy, growing more than 20 per cent last year and accounting for more than 10 per cent of the country's GDP. Tourists will now worry whether it is safe to visit "amazing Thailand".
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