| Home > South-East Asia >> Thailand | |
Trial by fire for Thailand's new PM
Asia Times - December 15, 2008
Shawn W. Crispin, Bangkok – Amid intense political horse-trading and allegations of military meddling in securing the vote, Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was on Monday narrowly elected by Thailand's parliament to the premiership, returning the erstwhile opposition party to power for the first time in nearly eight years and raising hopes for a period of political stability.
The parliamentary vote was called after the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and two of its junior coalition partners were legally dissolved on December 2 by the Constitution Court on electoral fraud charges. The majority of the PPP's members of parliament (MPs) regrouped under the Puea Thai banner, and most political analysts initially expected the new party would successfully form the next government.
Those designs came undone when a crucial PPP party faction, led by behind-the-scenes powerbroker Newin Chidchob, who was officially banned from politics for five years after the Thai Rak Thai party (TRT) was disbanded by a military-appointed court in 2007, broke ranks and crucially swung the 235-198 vote in favor of the Democrats. Peua Thai's MPs backed the bid of Peua Pandin party leader and former police official Pracha Promnok.
According to news reports, Newin's group will likely be rewarded with lucrative cabinet posts, including sway over the Transport Ministry at a time the new government bids to ramp up infrastructure spending to buoy the local economy. Newin's crossover represents a significant blow to the grassroots base of former premier and now Peua Thai figurehead Thaksin Shinawatra, who pre-emptively criticized his former confidante's defection in a taped video played for a crowd of his supporters at Bangkok's national stadium on Saturday.
At the same time, Newin's association with the Democrats represents the latest blotch on the conservative party's self-promoted good governance image and points to possible political infighting ahead. In an August interview with Asia Times Online, Democrat party deputy leader Korn Chatikavanij said when questioned that his party would "never" form an alliance with the rough-and-tumble Newin [1] to establish a Democrat-led government.
Abhisit's rise also comes under the cloud of allegations that the military played a hidden role in building a new ruling coalition. Several coalition party executives were reported to have held private meetings with army commander General Anupong Paochinda in the lead-up to Monday's vote. Anupong told the local press that he had "advised" politicians how to solve the country's grinding conflict, but did not overtly interfere in the political process.
The Democrats' democratic credentials have also come into question through the party's overt association with the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest movement, which laid siege to Government House beginning in late August and for over a week beginning in late November occupied and shuttered Bangkok's main domestic and international airports in a bid to topple two successive PPP-led governments.
The PAD's leaders have advocated, and certain Democrat executives have supported, a move back towards a half-appointed, half-elected Lower House of Parliament, which is currently fully elected. The military-drafted 2007 constitution included provisions for a partially appointed Senate, which had been previously fully elected.
Democrat MP Somkiat Pongpaiboon was one of the PAD's co-leaders, while the protest movement's de facto spokesman, Kasit Piromya, a former ambassador to the United States, is widely tipped to receive the Foreign Ministry portfolio. Now in power, many wonder whether the Democrats will prioritize the passage of constitutional amendments in line with the PAD's reactionary demands.
While the PAD called on the military and monarch to intervene and establish a national unity government, the Oxford-educated Abhisit, 44, insisted throughout the turmoil that any new administration should rise through constitutional means. Although not apparent in the wake of the 2006 military coup, with TRT-turned-PPP members alleging the two sides had joined forces to oust Thaksin, the Democrats have a storied party history of opposing military regimes.
The last Democrat-led government (1997-2001), led by Abhisit's lawyer mentor Chuan Leekpai, pushed through various measures to rein in the military's power and influence, including a sharp reduction in brass budgets and moves to trim soldiers' personal business interests.
The military reasserted its commercial influence in the wake of the 2006 coup, including through the controversial appointment of soldiers to the boards and directorships of top state-owned enterprises. Corruption allegations soon followed. Meanwhile, the military-appointed government oversaw a huge increment in the annual military budget, which by mid-2007 had raised by over 66% on the previous year's outlay.
While Abhisit juggles these political demands, it will be his more immediate management of the economy and national budget that will likely make or break his premiership.
As in 1997, the Democrats inherit an economy in distress, hit first and foremost by deteriorating global economic conditions that have depressed demand for Thai exports, and compounded by the country's confidence-eroding political chaos, including the PAD's week-long closure of Bangkok's international airport. Some economists now predict Thailand's economic growth in 2009 could turn negative.
The Democrats' economic lineup, including top appointments to the Finance and Commerce Ministry, will mark a technocratic improvement over the PPP's recent teams and aim specifically at restoring battered investor confidence in the country's policy direction. That includes hints that former JP Morgan investment banker Korn Chatikavanij will get the nod to head the Finance Ministry, and former Thailand International Chamber of Commerce head Kiat Sitheeamorn the Commerce Ministry.
While their democratic credentials have frayed, the Democrats are renowned for their dogged adherence to free market orthodoxy, a factor which contributed to the party's electoral downfall to Thaksin's nationalistic populism at the 2001 polls. With global trade collapsing and Thailand reliant on exports for upwards of 65% of its gross domestic product, it's unlikely an emphasis on trade-geared policies will work the same magic that they did in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
Economic analysts contend Abhisit's government will need to quickly ramp up fiscal spending, including the type of populist pump priming targeting the grassroots that Thaksin championed and the Democrats now say they too support. Coalition parties that supported the PPP-led government made the Democrats commit to maintaining village development funds, a universal health care plan and other populist policies as a condition for changing sides.
With public debt around 25% of GDP, Thailand has plenty of fiscal room to spend. The outgoing PPP-led government had initiated a 100 billion baht (US$2.8 billion) emergency budget for just such spending, but met resistance among bureaucrats concerned they might be investigated and held accountable for any slippage with a change in political regime – as happened in the wake of the 2006 coup.
Whether Abhisit has the clout to convince a shell-shocked bureaucracy that his coalition government has real staying power will determine largely how deep Thailand's downturn and also how popular his leadership.
Notes
1. In the wake of the 2006 military coup, Newin was held for several days at army headquarters and questioned about alleged plans to arm a group of pro-government protesters to confront a previous incarnation of the People's Alliance for Democracy movement. According to local news reports, Newin was eventually released in his underwear over a kilometer from his home in Buriram province.
[Shawn W. Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.]
See also:
 |