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Thai PM's party on shaky ground as 2011 poll looms
Agence France Presse - December 27, 2010
Bangkok – Thailand's prime minister defied skeptics this year to survive the worst political crisis in decades, but faces a key electoral test next year in a nation that is still deeply divided.
At the height of mass antigovernment protests in the heart of Bangkok in April and May – which sparked violence that ultimately left more than 90 people dead – many thought Abhisit Vejjajiva's days as prime minister were numbered.
But the British-born, Oxford-educated head of the ruling Democrat Party managed to cling to power through the "Red Shirt" opposition rallies and ensuing military crackdown. This month, he began his third year in office.
"Abhisit has prevailed but he has not achieved reconciliation," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "We are likely headed for more confrontation."
Abhisit, elected in December 2008 through a parliamentary vote with the backing of the Bangkok-based elite and the military, faces a crucial test next year when he must call a general election.
"It is unlikely the Democrat Party will win a majority," said Thitinan, who sees the formation of another coalition government as Abhisit's best chance of staying in power.
"The opposition Puea Thai Party is in disarray, is demoralized, has suffered from defections and does not have an appealing leadership, yet it can still conceivably become the largest winning party," he added.
With polls on the horizon, the Democrats have announced a host of populist policies including paying a modest allowance to the elderly and introducing free schooling.
But these are unlikely to help Abhisit "win the hearts and minds of the poor," according to Pavin Chachavlapongpun, a Thailand expert and former diplomat.
"Contrary to what Abhisit believes, the poor are not stupid and they realize that unless the Thailand crisis is fixed – meaning a fairer distribution of political power and national wealth – the problem facing Thailand is far from over," he said.
Thailand has seen frequent political violence since Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecoms tycoon-turned-prime-minister who now lives abroad to avoid a jail term for corruption, was ousted in a 2006 military coup.
His allies won the 2007 polls, but judicial rulings forced two successive prime ministers from office in 2008, paving the way for Abhisit to take charge.
Accusations of double standards have become louder in light of recent court decisions to drop charges of election fraud against the Democrats on technicalities, enabling the party to escape a political ban.
The Red Shirt protesters, many of whom hail from Thailand's rural northeast and supported Thaksin for his populist policies, accuse the Democrats of being an undemocratic elite. The faction demanded snap elections.
The red-clad movement has returned to the streets of Bangkok to stage a series of peaceful rallies in recent weeks, attracting thousands of supporters and underscoring the country's simmering political tensions.
The opposition is expected to fare well in certain rural areas where Thaksin remains popular in the next elections.
But Puea Thai is "much weaker than the Red Shirt movement," according to Michael Montesano, an analyst with the Institute of Southeast Asia Studies.
Abhisit, meanwhile, has retained the backing of the Thai elite. He now presides over a government that is a "hybrid between military and civilian," Thitinan said.
But Abhisit has long been accused of being a "puppet" for an unelected elite, but experts say he has also shown that he can act on his own political initiative.
"This year, Abhisit has shown more political skill and perhaps been able to act a little bit more on his own and a bit less as a front man," Montesano said.
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