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Singapore's opposition out to take advantage of changing political mood
Reuters - May 2, 2011
Singapore – Tens of thousands of people are attending opposition rallies in Singapore, a show of defiance against the long-ruling People's Action Party as one of Asia's wealthiest and fastest-growing nations heads for its most hotly contested election ever.
The criticism of the government at the rallies and the boos and catcalls are extremely rare in a state where political freedom is usually restricted.
No one is suggesting that Singapore, one of the world's biggest centers for trade, business and banking, is headed for a change in government in Saturday's election. But the PAP, which has swept all 10 previous elections and did not lose a single seat until 1981, could see its percentage of the vote drop.
"I think a very likely scenario for the opposition is that there will be an increase in the vote, but potentially not much progress in terms of seats because it's a first-past-the-post system," said Garry Rodan, a professor at Australia's Murdoch University who writes on Singaporean politics.
"Clearly from the opposition's point of view, they seem to think that there is a groundswell of disenchantment that they can capitalize on to a greater extent than in past elections," he added. "I think the government seems a little bit more apprehensive about what might happen."
At the last election in 2006, the PAP had about 67 percent of the vote and lost two seats out of 84. Only about half the seats were contested at all, because the dispirited opposition conceded walkovers.
The opposition is fighting 82 of the 87 seats this time, the highest ever, and it has overcome much of its own divisiveness. Except for one, the contests will be PAP versus one opposition party.
The only constituency to be uncontested is a 5-seat district represented since before independence in 1965 by the architect of modern Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, a former prime minister and father of the current prime minister. The plain-talking 87-year-old has said the state does not need a strong opposition.
"From 1966 to 1981 there was not one opposition MP and the PAP remained un-corrupt, completely dedicated to the job, made great progress and brought Singapore up to a higher level," he said in a newspaper interview this weekend.
Asked if people wanted more checks and balances for the government, he said: "It is a footloose generation that hasn't experienced the past and believes that Singapore is flying safely and can go on autopilot and anybody can take over.
"I don't happen to believe that. I think we will run into all kinds of bad weather and you need capable people in charge." A constituency would have "five years to repent" if it elected the opposition, he said.
But at the rallies, feelings run high over inflation, an increasingly high proportion of foreign workers as the city-state grows rapidly and the spin-on effects on jobs, education and home prices.
"What I feel has changed is definitely the population landscape with too many foreigners," said Nuraini Malik, a 22-year-old consumer research analyst who was among an estimated 15,000 people at one recent opposition rally.
Evelyn Yip, a 43-year-old who was also at the rally, said: "We are far from first world. We have Swiss costs of living but not their quality of life."
Economists say these bread-and-butter issues are almost always present but give the opposition a ready-made platform to promote its cause despite 14.5 percent gross domestic product growth last year and a transformation since independence from a sleepy post-colonial port to a gleaming global financial hub.
This is being reinforced by the open recourse to the Internet and social media to voice dissatisfaction, which is outside the control of the government.
And with one in four voters under 35 and many never having voted before, there is a substantial proportion of unknown loyalties.
Rodan, the Australian professor, said: "Politics under the PAP is pretty bland, uncharismatic, almost mechanical at times.
"Many of the opposition rallies have had more interesting orators and at times some expressions of disenchantment with the PAP that have had a degree of attraction for people who wonder what politics could be like if it were more free-ranging."
Economists however say few long-term changes in policy are likely even if the PAP were to see its share of the vote drop since the government's long-term focus remains fixed on being competitive, encouraging foreign investment and keeping an open economy.
"I think currently perhaps this balance between how many people Singapore is going to house, be it local or foreigners, and the social impact etc. will perhaps be more keenly evaluated by policy-planners than before," said Song Seng Wun, a senior economist at CIMB, adding "at the end of the day, the Singapore Inc. machinery will basically move relentlessly on."
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