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Manila sets 2014 deadline for ending communist rebellion
Agence France Presse - January 20, 2011
Manila – The Philippine government said on Wednesday it hoped to end a decades-long communist rebellion in three years after both sides agreed to peace talks, but analysts warned the insurgency would likely drag on.
At the end of preliminary discussions in Norway, President Benigno Aquino's peace team and the communist National Democratic Front agreed on Tuesday that formal talks would resume next month for the first time in six years.
"We are pleased with the developments in Oslo. Given the initial good faith gestures of both parties, we hope that the peace talks will achieve their avowed purpose," Aquino's spokesman, Edwin Lacierda told reporters.
Lead government negotiator Alexander Padilla said he was aiming for an accord to end one of Asia's longest rebellions, which has claimed tens of thousand of lives, to be signed by 2014.
"If we cannot agree in three years, we cannot agree on anything," Padilla said.
The communists, who have been waging a rebellion since 1969, insisted they were genuine in wanting to finally broker a peace.
"We do not underestimate the difficulties, but we are willing to seize the opportunity," NDF delegation head Luis Jalando-ni said.
The communists have been wanting to seize control of the country through an armed revolution. Philippine leaders have pursued peace talks with the NDF and its armed wing, the New People's Army, since the fall of dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, but all efforts have run aground.
The last talks were held in 2004, under then president Gloria Arroyo, with negotiations collapsing amid NDF demands that the communists be removed from international terrorist lists.
But both sides have agreed to meet for the formal talks in Oslo from Feb. 15-21 without any preconditions.
Political analyst Ramon Casiple said Aquino's record popularity among Filipinos and the credibility of his negotiators – most are ex-human rights activists – were reasons to believe the talks could succeed.
And with only about 4,700 fighters, the communists also realize they have little chance of major military victories, said Casiple of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform.
"The fact is that their struggle is getting them nowhere. That means their position is weak. They cannot claim any possibility of victory at any point of time."
But other analysts said the differences between the two sides were too great and that a collapse of the talks is almost inevitable.
"The bottom line here is there remain very intractable issues," said Pete Troilo, business intelligence director of Pacific Strategies and Assessments research firm.
"There ar e very hard-line factions within the NDF that will never agree to peace unless the government gives substantial concessions and that is never going to happen," he said.
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