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Malaysian government slipped with non-Malays in Sarawak polls
Straits Times - April 20, 2011
Carolyn Hong, Kuala Lumpur – Chinese support for the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition plunged to a low of 25 percent in the Sarawak election over the weekend, while the non-Muslim native vote also saw a sharp dip – two trends that bode ill for the government, say analysts.
According to an analysis of election data by political analyst Ong Kian Ming, the popular vote for the BN dropped from 62 percent in the 2006 state election to 54.7 percent this time round. Chinese support fell the most – from 45 percent to 25 percent.
This sharp plunge came as no surprise, as BN lost 13 of the 15 Chinese-majority seats in the state.
But the fact that non-Muslim native communities, known as Dayaks, also gave more votes to the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) this time is the greater shock. About 64 percent voted for BN in 2006, but only 56.7 percent did so this time.
For PR, BN's drop of about seven percentage points was not enough for the opposition to win more than two native seats, but for BN, it was a signal that this traditionally secure vote bank can no longer be taken for granted.
Only the Muslim Malay and Melanau vote bank remained secure, with around 80 percent for BN, the analysis showed.
In the state polls last Saturday, BN won 55 of the 71 state seats, PR got 15 and an independent took one.
The fall in both the Chinese and native votes may cause Prime Minister Najib Razak to delay the next general election, which is speculated to be held within the year, although it is due only in 2013.
Political analyst Jeniri Amir from Universiti Malaysia Sarawak said going by this trend, BN risks losing up to 10 of the 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak at the next general election.
There are about seven Chinese parliamentary seats, and he believes that at least three native seats can be won by PR. BN now has 29 of the 31 seats. Sarawak, it appears, is no longer a BN "fixed deposit," as Najib had described it.
Ong said this election has identified some vulnerable native seats which, if the conditions are right, may swing over to the opposition.
For instance, in the interior seat of Bengoh, where hundreds have lost their homes because of a new dam, he said BN won with just 55 percent of the vote, far below the 67 percent in 2006.
"If the PR as a whole can raise more credible non-Muslim bumiputera leaders, it may be possible to further reduce BN's share of the native vote," he said.
However, one of the PR's successful candidates, Baru Bian, who won the remote Ba'kelalan seat, said the opposition coalition has to realise that rhetoric and political sentiment can only go so far.
"I started work in my area very early; we opened many party branches and a service office too," he said. It also helped that he is a local lawyer who has made his name in championing native land rights.
He said the coalition will refine this strategy for the next round and make further inroads, as the electorate has become more politically aware.
"The land issues came alive during this election, and religious issues as well," Baru said, referring to the impounding of 30,000 Malay-language Bibles in Kuching just before the election.
Analysts said this election showed that BN can no longer expect an easy ride in the key Borneo state.
Said Jeniri: "The next round will be even more difficult."
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