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Malaysia government stumbles to another poll defeat
Reuters - January 18, 2009
Razak Ahmad, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia – Malaysia's government stumbled to a second by-election loss in its heartland on Saturday, raising questions as to whether it can reconnect with voters at a time of rising economic and political stress.
The defeat of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) in a key by-election in Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia's northeast follows the party's loss to opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim in another Malay-majority seat late last year.
The Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), one of three partners in Anwar's opposition alliance, won the seat by 2,631 votes, much bigger than expected.
Cheering PAS supporters took to the streets of Kuala Terengganu, a state capital of almost 300,000 people in rural northeastern Malaysia, in cars and on mopeds, honking horns and waving green and white party flags.
UMNO is the anchor in the ruling multi-racial National Front coalition, which is still regrouping following the coalition's worst-ever electoral loss in national polls last year.
"There will be increasing concerns in UMNO about whether it will still be in power if it was, indeed, a Malay swing in Kuala Terengganu that led to the opposition's victory there, and if that Malay swing is part of a nationwide trend that is happening," said political commentator Wan Hamidi Hamid.
Kuala Terengganu is 88 percent Malay, compared with around 60 percent nationally. UMNO was set up in 1946 with the aims of defending Malay rights and winning independence from Britain.
It was the Malay base that remained loyal to UMNO and the coalition that it leads, saving it in the face of mass defections by ethnic Chinese and Indian voters in the 2008 general election.
Multiracial brand
Analysts say the worry within UMNO is that the party maybe losing Malay support to the Islamist party that trounced the coalition on Saturday and to Anwar's multi-ethnic People's Justice Party, which won a by-election in August.
Both campaigns were run by Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, who will take the top job in March after his predecessor was forced to quit early due to the run of poor election results. Najib had declared the seat a "must win."
"I don't think Najib will face much opposition in his ruling coalition because of this small by-election loss, he is still in charge," said Ooi Kee Beng, fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore. "The bigger picture is not about Najib's personality but that the ruling coalition's brand of multiracialism is just not attractive any longer because its communalist roots has angered many."
While Najib will stand unopposed in UMNO party elections in March, other top posts are up for grabs and Najib will have to rebuild the Malay party and at the same time reach out to ethnic Chinese and Indian parties, its allies in the National Front.
He will have to do this at a time when Malaysia risks falling into its first recession in eight years.
"It's as if UMNO no longer has a clear direction," said political analyst Mohamed Mustafa Ishak from Universiti Utara Malaysia.
Analysts say the vote in Kuala Terengganu may also help unify the three-party opposition, despite worries by an ethnic Chinese party in Anwar's alliance over PAS's push for Islamic laws.
"We are stronger now. Our strength and cohesion (as an alliance) in this by-election marks a very big change," said PAS President Hadi Awang, who has refused in the past to endorse Anwar as leader of the opposition alliance.
"Najib is the main loser and Anwar is still the man of the hour," said James Chin, political science professor at Monash University in Malaysia.
The next general election is not due until 2013, but questions over how UMNO managed to lose in two key Malay seats so badly will be amplified in the run-up to the March party polls.
The result, however, does not fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Malaysian parliament where the government still has a majority of 52 seats in the 222-member house. (Reporting by Razak Ahmad; Editing by Bill Tarrant)
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