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East Timor News Digest 4 – April 1-30, 2012

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UNMIT/ISF

Timor-Leste: As peace prevails, security forces plan departure

IRIN - April 13, 2012

Dili – Following a peaceful presidential poll in March and several years of stability, international peacekeeping forces dispatched in 2006 to prevent the outbreak of civil war in Timor-Leste are preparing to pull out.

United Nations police are scheduled to depart at year's end, barring any major disruptions to the country's stability or wrongdoing in the upcoming run-off presidential poll on 16 April and parliamentary elections in July.

Timor-Leste, located mainly on the eastern half of the island of Timor, achieved independence in 1999 from Indonesia, whose brutal ruleover its neighbour was responsible for an estimated 180,000 Timorese. The country was subsequently administered by the UN until a new constitution and domestic government was formed in 2002.

The early years of autonomy were interrupted by national crises that shook the shallow foundations of the young democratic government.

In 2006 disgruntled soldiers mutinied in the capital, Dili, leaving dozens dead, causing thousands to flee the city, and risking the possibility of escalation into civil war. More than 150,000 people were displaced during violence between rival groups in the army, the police and the wider population.

Underlying the unrest were larger societal problems, such as high unemployment, which still stir tensions today. Various aid agencies estimate joblessness at around 20 percent in urban areas.

National turmoil renewed in 2008, when President Jose Ramos-Horta was shot several times during an attempted assassination, which he barely survived.

"The situation in Timor in 2012 is very different from the situation in Timor in 2006," Finn Reske-Nielsen, deputy head of the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT), a peacekeeping and governance-assistance operation initiated in 2006, told IRIN.

The institutional strength of the domestic police force, the Policia Nacional Timor Leste (PNTL), is "much greater than it was", and the functioning of the country's parliament and judiciary is "infinitely better," he noted.

In March 2011 the UN mission's police force, UNPOL, handed over management of national security to the PNTL, and the remaining 1,280 UN police personnel have largely stayed behind the scenes in a supportive capacity.

An anticipated spike in crime rates after the security handover did not materialize, but observers have concerns about the ability of the PNTL to serve as a dynamic civilian police force handling issues that range from traffic control to mediating domestic violence to investigating civilian murders.

"It hasn't yet been thought through what these 3,100 men and women [in the PNTL] will do on a day-to-day basis," said Gordon Peake, a visiting fellow at Australian National University who worked from 2008 to 2011 as a security adviser to Australian peacekeeping forces in Timor-Leste.

Cillian Nolan, a Timor-Leste specialist for the International Crisis Group (ICG), which researches violence and prevention measures, noted that "Many Timorese believe the police response is both partial and ineffective."

The departure of international peacekeepers is likely to be seen as an important symbolic step. Dili resident Anacleto Suares, 43, who served in a clandestine resistance network during Indonesian rule, said full independence would not be realized until the country was managing its security independently.

"We have achieved political independence, but not full independence," he commented. "The UN has helped us with problems related to violence but we need to start to take care of more things ourselves." Many veterans of Timor-Leste's liberation struggle would agree with him.

Justice deferred

Fears of jeopardizing stability have caused sensitive justice matters to be either deferred or ignored altogether in the name of political expediency, said the ICG.

"Foremost among the steps that have been deferred has been prosecuting most of the crimes of the 2006 crisis, but this looks very unlikely to change," said Nolan, who was also the lead author of an ICG report published in February on Timor-Leste's security situation.

Between 2001 and 2004, the UN-backed Serious Crimes Unit indicted 394 people for crimes committed in 1999, and convicted 84 Timorese. All the Indonesians and many Timorese who were also indicted continue to enjoy sanctuary in Indonesia.

"There are few real disincentives for further political violence in Timor- Leste, and this will only change if there are more prosecutions of political violence and fewer pardons," said Nolan.

UNMIT maintains that it has not wavered in promoting accountability. "The UN position is clear: there has to be accountability," said Finn Reske- Nielsen. "UNMIT has a mandate, but a limited mandate."

Timor-Leste's leaders point out that the former Portuguese colony, a tiny island nation of 1.1 million, has limited leverage to demand the extradition of war criminals from its much larger neighbour, Indonesia. Moreover, there are few signs that the UN – or influential countries such as the US and Australia – are willing to make these demands on Timor- Leste's behalf.

Withdrawal timing and terms

As international peacekeepers are poised to pull out, the PNTL is asking for an infusion of US$11 million in funding over three years to purchase operational necessities such as cars, petrol and radios.

Though UNMIT is scheduled to close by year's end, a new UN mission with a role limited to governance support could be on the horizon.

According to Reske-Nielsen, "There seems to be a consensus across the [national and international] political spectrum... not to completely cut the ties with the political side of the UN mission." (bb/ds/he)

Political parties & elections

Former guerrilla wins East Timor presidency

Agence France Presse - April 24, 2012

Former guerrilla fighter Taur Matan Ruak has officially won East Timor's presidential election, according to a court statement that confirmed preliminary results announced last week.

The Supreme Court of Appeals said in a statement dated Monday that Ruak had won 61.2 percent of the vote, beating rival Francisco Guterres "Lu Olo" in the April 16 run-off ballot.

Ruak, a hero of the 24-year war against Indonesian occupation and a former army chief, will replace Nobel Peace Prize winner Jose Ramos-Horta, who trailed in third place in the first round of voting on March 17.

"The court validates the second ballot for the election of the President of the Republic," the statement said. "The candidate elected President of the Republic is Taur Matan Ruak".

Ruak, 55, will lead an impoverished and oil-dependent country which next month celebrates a decade of formal independence, and later this year bids goodbye to UN peacekeepers stationed on the half-island nation since 1999.

On July 7, voters will also choose a new government in a general election.

Late last year Ruak, whose name means "piercing eyes" in the local Tetum language, resigned as defence chief to run for president. He had vowed to introduce mandatory military service if elected.

Ruak, whose real name is Jose Maria Vasconcelos, has been accused by the United Nations of involvement in illegal weapons transfers in 2006 when rioting and factional fighting left the nation on the brink of civil war.

However, no attempts have been made to prosecute him.

While the presidency is largely ceremonial, it has enjoyed a high profile under Ramos-Horta.

Among East Timor's many teething problems as a fledgling nation is its heavy reliance on energy reserves, which account for around 90 percent of state revenues.

Ex-army chief set to lead East Timor

Sydney Morning Herald - April 17, 2012

Michael Bachelard, Dili – A military man recommended by the United Nations for criminal prosecution six years ago seems almost certain to become the new president of East Timor.

Former commander of the armed forces Jose Maria de Vasconcelos, universally known as Taur Matan Ruak (or "Two Sharp Eyes"), was well ahead in counting late last night and was expecting to be declared the winner today in the second round of the country's presidential election.

With over 60 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Ruak was up by 61 per cent to Mr Guterres's 39 per cent. It appeared he had defeated his rival, Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres from the former revolutionary Fretilin party by an unexpectedly large margin.

However, on early figures, the turnout for the poll was disappointingly low among the 626,503 enrolled voters turning up yesterday, perhaps put off by the need to travel back to their home villages to vote.

The final result will not be known until today, but a spokesman for Taur Matan Ruak, Jose Belo, last night attributed the apparent win to the candidate's energy in visiting and campaigning in 152 villages in the past six months.

The victory was sealed in the country's western districts, known to be hostile to Fretilin, but Mr Belo said Taur Matan Ruak had even claimed wins in villages inside Fretilin territory.

A spokesman for Mr Guterres acknowledged on an early count that it would be difficult for the Fretilin candidate to win.

Mr Belo said Taur Matan Ruak's priorities were to look after veterans of the conflict and widows, to help the large number of young people without work, partly through compulsory military service, and to spread the wealth from urban to rural areas.

Taur Matan Ruak was a popular candidate because of his military background in a country that values heroes of the past.

Ranked a Major-General, he was the last military commander of the resistance before East Timor became independent from Indonesia, and commander of the country's armed forces when they were formed in 2001, after independence.

He stepped down from that role in October last year. However, his campaign posters depicted him in military-style uniform.

East Timor's president has a role in appointing the prime minister. He can also veto legislation that is against the national interest.

The election marks the 10th anniversary of East Timor becoming independent. If significant conflict can be avoided, both the UN security forces and the Australian and New Zealand army contingents here are expected to go home later this year, allowing the new democracy to police itself.

Taur Matan Ruak won 26 per cent in the first round, but picked up a large portion of the support of outgoing president Jose Ramos-Horta, and Democratic party candidate Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo, both of whom were knocked out in the first round.

But Taur Matan Ruak's history is controversial. In 2006 East Timor degenerated into an armed struggle between various factions of the army and the police force. Thirty-eight people died and 150,000 were displaced, prompting the country to invite in a UN team to provide security, and another to launch a special commission of inquiry.

That inquiry recommended Taur Matan Ruak be prosecuted under the criminal code for his role in distributing army weapons to 206 civilians in May 2006. The weapons were then used during the unrest.

"Those weapons were distributed by and/or with the knowledge and approval of" people including Taur Matan Ruak, the UN report found. "The commission recommends that these persons be prosecuted for illegal weapons transfer."

Taur Matan Ruak was not prosecuted, and said at the time he had been acting on the orders of the defence minister.

Former guerrilla Ruak elected East Timor president

Agence France Presse - April 17, 2012

Meagan Weymes – Former guerrilla Taur Matan Ruak has won East Timor's presidential run-off by a wide margin, preliminary results showed Tuesday, in a pivotal year for the nation almost a decade after independence.

Ruak, who had campaigned in military fatigues to highlight his role in the fight against Indonesian occupation, won 61.23 percent of the vote, according to figures from the elections secretariat, which organised Monday's polls

His challenger Francisco Guterres – also a hero in the independence struggle and popularly known by his nom de guerre "Lu Olo" – trailed far behind with 38.77 percent, according to the count.

All the results have been counted but they must be examined by the court of appeals before they are officially announced.

"We are very much elevated by the result, by the current outcome," said Ruak's spokesman Fidelis Magalhaes. "We expect to see some changes, minor, probably one or two percentage points, but without a clear swing or fluctation of points" in the final count, he added.

If confirmed, Ruak, also a former defence chief, will become the leader of the impoverished and oil-dependent country, replacing Nobel Peace Prize winner Jose Ramos-Horta, who trailed in third place in the first round on March 17.

An international poll observer said the wide margin left no room for dispute over the results. "If there was a close result there could have been some quarrelling, and while it's not a landslide, this is a clear victory," said Rui Feijo, an election observer and researcher from Portugal's Coimbra University.

The vote marked the first in a series of key events in the chronically unstable country, still traumatised by Indonesia's brutal 24-year occupation which ended with a 1999 referendum for independence.

In May, East Timor will celebrate 10 years of independence, which came after three years of United Nations administration. On July 7, voters will choose a new government in a general election. The UN has said peacekeepers stationed in East Timor since 1999 would pull out as planned by the end of 2012 if both elections were peaceful.

A spokesman for UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said Monday's vote had taken place in a "peaceful and orderly manner".

While Ruak, 55, sought to burnish military credentials throughout the campaign, Lu Olo, 57, has shed his guerrilla image, earning a law degree and campaigning in a suit and tie.

Ruak, who resigned as defence chief late last year to run for president, has vowed to introduce mandatory military service if elected.

He has been accused by the United Nations of involvement in illegal weapons transfers in 2006, when rioting and factional fighting left the nation on the brink of civil war. However, no attempts have been made to prosecute him.

While the presidency is largely ceremonial, it has enjoyed a high profile under Ramos-Horta.

Among East Timor's many teething problems as a fledgling nation is its heavy reliance on energy reserves, which account for around 90 percent of state revenues.

East Timor is labelled by the International Monetary Fund as the "most oil-dependent economy in the world", relying on a petroleum fund that reached $9.3 billion last year.

More than 458,000 Timorese, or 73 percent of more than 627,000 registered voters, went to the polls Monday, the elections secretariat said.

East Timor holds run-off vote for new president

Associated Press - April 17, 2012

Guido Goulart, Dili, East Timor – Two former guerrilla leaders vied for East Timor's presidency Monday, each hoping to help steer the region's newest and poorest nation after UN peacekeeping troops begin their planned withdrawal later this year.

Taur Matan Ruak appeared headed for an easy victory over Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres in the run-off vote, according to an early quick count. Incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, bowed out last month following a poor showing in the first round.

East Timor, a half island nation of 1.1 million people, voted overwhelmingly in 1999 to end 24 years of brutal Indonesia occupation that had left more than 170,000 dead.

When withdrawing soldiers and proxy militias went on a rampage, killing another 1,500 people and destroying much of the infrastructure, the international community jumped in to help, deploying UN peacekeepers and pouring in billions of dollars.

But the road to democracy has been anything but easy, with gang violence and splits in the army and police turning deadly several times and, six years ago, leading to the collapse of the government.

While the role of president is largely ceremonial, the winner has the ability, like Ramos-Horta did, to act as a moral compass. He will do so at a crucial time.

If parliamentary elections that follow on July 7 are peaceful, discussions will begin about the withdrawal of 400 international peacekeepers still deployed in the country, Australian Defense Minister Stephen Smith said recently. They could start heading home before the end of the year.

Voting was largely peaceful Monday, with only a few reported incidents, a big improvement from the last polls. "That in itself is good news and has to be regarded as a consolidation of the democratic process," said Damien Kingsbury, an Australian academic familiar with East Timor politics.

The United States congratulated East Timor for the successful conduct of a "peaceful and orderly" election. "So far the information available to us suggests that the election was free and fair," State Department spokesman Mark Toner told a news briefing in Washington.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also congratulated the people of East Timor for displaying "once again their commitment to stability, democracy and national unity," his deputy spokesman Eduardo del Buey said at UN headquarters in New York.

Official results are not expected until Wednesday. But with 75 percent of the ballots tallied in a quick count, Ruak. a former chief of the guerrilla forces, had nearly 61 percent, according to the National Election Commission. That means his victory is all but assured.

"I'm ready to lead," said Ruak, 55, who ran as an independent but had strong backing from Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. "But I appeal to the great people of our country to accept the result whatever it is... Let's show the world that we are civilized and ready to promote our own democracy with dignity."

Lu Olo, a 57-year-old former guerrilla commander representing the opposition Fretilin party, had 39 percent in the quick count. He, too, earlier said whatever the result, he would accept it.

Justino Menezes, who was among more than 700,000 eligible voters, said he wanted most to see his country develop economically.

Many people earn less than 50 cents a day. Roads are still in disrepair. There is little access to clean water or health services. And the capital is littered with abandoned, burned-out buildings where the homeless squat.

"It's time to move forward," said Menezes, a 61-year-old farmer. "And to move forward without fear."

[Associated Press writer Matthew Pennington in Washington and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.]

Presidential run-off tests East Timor democracy

Agence France Presse - April 16, 2012

Meagan Weymes – Former military commander Taur Matan Ruak was ahead in an early count for East Timor's presidential run-off vote on Monday, according to the elections secretariat.

The provisional count of just over half the vote showed Ruak garnering about 60 percent of the vote, with adversary Francisco Gutterres "Lu Olo" trailing behind with 40 percent, thee organiser of the polls said. Ruak pocketed 184,891 votes verses Lu Olo's 123,991, according to the count.

East Timor went to the polls Monday to elect a new president as the young democracy prepares to celebrate its first decade of independence and bid goodbye to UN forces. Voters cast their ballots in a contest that pitted the two heroes of the 24-year war against Indonesian occupation against each other.

After polls opened in the morning, a steady trickle of voters cast their ballots at the Motael primary school, a polling station in the leafy Farol suburb of Dili, emerging with purple-stained index fingers.

"I will win this election. I will become a president for all the people to secure stability and peace," Lu Olo said after voting at the school.

The winner of the contest will become the leader of an impoverished and chronically unstable country, replacing the Nobel Prize-winning incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta, who trailed in third place in the first round on March 17.

Although both candidates are former guerrilla leaders, Lu Olo has shed his military image, while Ruak has reinforced his during campaigning.

"One of them is not a good choice for us for peace in East Timor," said Felisiano Da Conceicau, a 36-year-old vet who did not say who he was voting for. "The people hope for peace," he added.

Ruak has vowed to introduce mandatory military service if elected. The 55- year-old, who won about 26 percent of the first-round vote, said the plan was a way to create jobs in a country with virtually no infrastructure.

"The problem with East Timor is the economy," said Claudina Ferreira, an 18-year-old student voting in Dili, calling on the new president to improve schools, repair roads, and help the agricultural sector.

While the presidency is largely ceremonial, it has enjoyed a high profile under Ramos-Horta, and the elections are the first in a series of landmark events this year for the half-island nation of 1.1 million people.

In May, East Timor will celebrate 10 years of independence, which came after three years of UN administration. On July 7, voters will choose a new government in a general election.

Ameerah Haq, the UN Secretary General's special representative for East Timor, reportedly said last week UN peacekeepers, stationed there since 1999, would pull out as planned by the end of 2012 if both elections are peaceful.

The first round of voting was peaceful but ahead of the run-off at least two homes of political supporters were torched and a number of campaign vehicles attacked. On Friday about 100 people reportedly pelted stones at Ruak's headquarters in Dili.

But authorities said polling had been peaceful, without any immediate reports of violence or election irregularities. A spokesman for the United Nations Secretary General said the vote had had taken place in a "peaceful and orderly manner".

An international poll observer said that the early result was likely to hold. "Based on what we have, this result of about 60 to 40 is likely to hold, with minor changes," said Rui Feijo. an election observer and researcher from Portugal's Coimbra University.

"If there was a close result there could have been some quarrelling, and while it's not a landslide, this is a clear victory," he said.

Lu Olo, the most popular candidate in last month's poll with close to 29 percent of the vote, was backed by several first-round candidates.

The softly spoken 57-year-old, who is known by his nom de guerre and heads the opposition Fretilin party which is synonymous with the resistance, lost the presidency to Ramos-Horta in a run-off in 2007.

The incumbent said he had "enormous respect" for both contenders. "You have these two candidates who are outstanding, so if either of them occupies our presidential palace I will be reassured as a citizen," Ramos-Horta said after voting in Dili.

Ruak, whose name means "piercing eyes" in the local Tetum language, is the country's former defence chief. He was accused by the United Nations of involvement in illegal weapons transfers in 2006, when rioting and factional fighting left the nation on the brink of civil war.

Mob attacks East Timor candidate's office

Australian Associated Press - April 14, 2012

Unrest has broken out in East Timor, where the campaign office of presidential candidate Taur Matan Ruak has been attacked in the lead-up to the election on Monday.

Police said a large group of people attempted to charge Taur Matan Ruak's campaign headquarters in Dili and when blocked by police, threw stones into the compound. Taur Matan Ruak's campaign manager called the incident "shameful for democracy" after allegations that Fretilin supporters were involved.

A Fretilin spokesman said there was no proof Fretilin supporters were involved and the incident had been exaggerated as part of a smear campaign against the party.

The incident comes ahead of the presidential election on Monday, where independent candidate Taur Matan Ruak, known as TMR, is up against Fretilin candidate Francisco Guterres "Lu Olo" for the role of president.

National Police (PNTL) deputy commander Alfonso de Jesus said due to the presence of police the incident was not a serious one.

"We had six police officers there but straight away they are not respecting the police presence there then the group is using the opportunity to take stones and throw them at the office," he said.

Mr de Jesus said the group were out on the road and then tried to charge through into the office, but police blocked them. No arrests have been made but a police investigation is underway into the incident.

TMR campaign manager Jose Belo said he was in the office when the attack occurred. "They tried to storm into the compound and there were a lot of stones, they threw stones into the compound, yelling and whatever. It's a shame for our democracy," he said.

Mr Belo said it was lucky there was a police car stopped in front of the main gate and the group was blocked from entering.

Fretilin campaign spokesman Jose Teixeira said the party went to great lengths to cooperate with police for the Fretilin rally yesterday and "any act of violence is abhorrent". "But considering the history of Timor-Leste this was a very minor incident," he said.

Mr Teixeira said the Fretilin party had been subject to more violence and intimidation than anyone else. "We reject the allegation our supporters were involved, and we call on the police to thoroughly investigate the incident and prosecute those they feel are responsible."

Ex-guerrillas face off in East Timor decider

Agence France Presse - April 14, 2012

Dili – East Timor's second presidential election as a free nation will see two ex-guerrillas compete in a run-off vote on Monday, after the Nobel Prize-winning incumbent was knocked out in the first round.

Either Francisco Guterres "Lu Olo" or Taur Matan Ruak, both heroes of the nation's 24-year war against Indonesian occupation, will replace Jose Ramos-Horta, who trailed in third place in a vote seen as a key test for the young democracy.

While the presidency is largely ceremonial, it enjoyed a high profile under Ramos-Horta, and the election is the first in a series of landmark events for the half-island nation of 1.1 million people.

In May, East Timor will celebrate 10 years of independence, which came after three years of UN administration. Then, in July, voters will choose a new government in a general election.

At the end of the year the impoverished and chronically unstable nation bids goodbye to UN forces stationed in the country since 1999.

The soft-spoken Guterres, 57, who heads the opposition Fretilin party, which is synonymous with the resistance, lost the presidency to Ramos-Horta in a run-off in 2007.

Widely respected for the two decades he spent in Timor's hills and thick jungles fighting the occupation, Guterres topped the March 17 first round with nearly 29 per cent of the vote.

But in election campaigns, he has strived to purge his guerrilla identity, stressing that his priorities included figuring out "how we can make light in every house, how we can get justice for all (Timorese) people".

"I can't go back to the history of what happened but we have to, as a nation, move forward," he said in a recent campaign speech, referring to the war that left an estimated 183,000 people dead through genocide, disease and starvation.

Ruak, whose name means "piercing eyes" in the local Tetum language, is the former military commander of Fretilin's military wing.

The 55-year-old, running as an independent but backed by Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's powerful National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor party, won about 26 per cent of the first-round vote.

Ruak, who has vowed to introduce mandatory military service if elected, is accused by the United Nations of illegal weapons transfers in 2006, when rioting and factional fighting had the nation on the brink of civil war.

But in election campaigns, he has focused on employment for the poor and "preparing our children for the future".

"Now listen to me, in the second round when you choose your leader, it is no time to choose the wrong one," he told a rally of 5,000 supporters in Dili's Democracy Field.

"I will respond to what you are worried about in the future," he said. The peaceful polling in the first round stood in stark contrast to the deadly pre-election violence that erupted in 2006, which left the country on the brink of civil war.

Ahead of the run-off, at least two homes of political supporters or campaign organisers were torched and a number of campaign vehicles attacked. On Friday, about 100 people reportedly pelted stones at Ruak's headquarters in Dili.

Refugees & asylum seekers

Asylum seekers find no solution in East Timor

Sydney Morning Herald - April 23, 2012

Michael Bachelard – Three weeks ago some of the world's unluckiest people were given one more reason to curse their fate.

Fleeing persecution in their home country, and after years of living in Malaysia as non-citizens, 26 Arakanese Muslims from Burma set out on a boat bound for Australia.

Instead, on March 27, they washed up in one of the poorest countries in Asia – East Timor. Their boat ran out of fuel off the country's southern coast and their captain swam to shore.

East Timor, once the target of Julia Gillard's ill-fated "Timor Solution" is not a favoured destination for refugees. The poverty-stricken nation has signed the UN convention on refugees, but only a handful have ever come here.

Three weeks later, all 26 men, ranging in age from 14 to 46, are sleeping on mats on the floor of a large conference room of the Directorate of Civil Security in Dili. They survive on $5 a day from the International Organisation for Migration.

In East Timor, the authorities are stumped. Noor Muhammad, 36, speaking for the group when The Age visited them this week, said the police had charged them with illegal entry and handed them letters telling them to leave within 10 days or they would be deported, detained, or face "other coercive measures".

If they failed to comply, they could be imprisoned for two years. The 10 days expired on Friday. East Timor's chief investigation officer for migration, Alfredo Abel, told The Age: "Now [we are] waiting for another solution".

With no money and no documents, it was clear the refugees could not leave the country voluntarily. If they were to be imprisoned, it would be "not tomorrow, not next week, a long time", Mr Abel said.

If they apply for asylum in East Timor, the country has a responsibility under the UN convention. But they do not want to apply. Another option, however, was for East Timor to fly them back to Malaysia, or even Burma, at its own expense, Mr Abel said.

Mr Muhammad said the 26 had spent their money – $US3500 ($A3370) each – paying Indonesian people smugglers to get to Australia, and that was still where they wanted to go.

With the help of refugee activist Mark Goudkamp, who was holidaying in Dili last week, they have the forms to apply for an Australian offshore humanitarian visa, but the 32-page form has so far proved too difficult for them to fill out.

The Australian embassy in Dili referred queries to the Australian Immigration Department, which said they were welcome to apply for humanitarian visas. The International Organisation for Migration could help them, a spokeswoman said.

Mr Muhammad said he had been in Malaysia since 1994. The UN recognised him as a refugee from the Burmese regime, which denies his people the basics of citizenship such as identification documents and free movement.

In Malaysia, he lived for 17 years as a non-citizen in the refugee "queue", applying repeatedly for asylum in Australia. Others in his group had been there even longer. Mr Muhammad said they wanted to come to a country where they would be welcomed, and be able to work, marry, travel, and enjoy full legal rights.

Foreign affairs & trade

New East Timor president to take tough stance on boundary issues

Sydney Morning Herald - April 18, 2012

Michael Bachelard, Dili – Australia can expect a more aggressive line from East Timor's new president Taur Matan Ruak over maritime boundaries and oil and gas revenue, after he described Australia's approach to these issues as "always a problem".

The East Timor electoral authorities have not declared an official result in the second round of the presidential election on Monday, but with 91 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Ruak has taken an unassailable lead, winning almost two-thirds of the vote.

Neither he nor his unsuccessful opponent, Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres from the Fretilin party, appeared in public yesterday, as both waited for the court to announce the official result, probably today.

Mr Ruak, whose real name is Jos Maria de Vasconcelos, is a plain-talking former army commander who led the East Timorese forces in the last years of the war of independence against Indonesia. His message of poverty reduction, finding jobs for young people and decentralising government resonated with voters who endorsed him in numbers few analysts had predicted.

In an interview with the Herald yesterday, Mr Ruak's spokesman Jose Belo said the president-elect would search for consensus in all decisions he made, and that he would not be beholden to any of his backers as president, including the Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmao.

During the campaign, Mr Ruak was asked what he thought East Timor could do to decide the issue of unresolved maritime boundaries with Australia and Indonesia. "I will continue discussion," Mr Ruak responded. "I see Australia is always a problem in negotiations because they want to get a bigger percentage. Most of their agreements depend just on political, not legal negotiations."

The president has no direct power to negotiate such issues but he can use his influence to set the tone of the debate.

In East Timor, Australia is widely regarded to have bullied the smaller country out of oil and gas revenues by refusing to agree to a maritime boundary in accordance with international law, instead negotiating revenue sharing agreements in 2002 and 2006.

Economy & investment

Why East Timor is concerned about Australia's carbon tax

ABC Radio Australia - April 26, 2012

The East Timorese government has raised concerns that it risks losing millions of dollars in revenue, as a result of Australia's carbon tax.

The carbon price of 23 dollars per tonne, which will be imposed on July the 1st, might be applied to companies operating in the oil and gas fields in the Timor Sea, which are jointly shared by both countries.

The government in Dili says it's yet to receive formal details about the possibility of the additional costs from Canberra.

Correspondent: Girish Sawlani

Speakers: Alfredo Pires, East Timorese State Secretary for Natural Resources; Greg Hunt, Australian Opposition's Spokesman for Climate Change

Sawlani: The dispute over the maritime boundary between Australia and East Timor has been a thorn in relations between the two countries. At the centre of the dispute, are oil and gas reserves at the bottom of the Timor Sea worth billions of dollars. For the moment at least, tensions have been pacified by revenue sharing deals struck in 2002 and 2006. They range from a 90 to 10 ratio in favour of East Timor for gas fields such as Bayu-Undan to a 50:50 arrangement for revenue from the Greater Sunrise Field. But both countries are still at odds over the location of a natural gas processing plant in the Greater Sunrise field. East Timor wants the plant on its shores, while the Australian firm tasked with developing it, Woodside Petroleum is seeking an offshore platform.

Now a new dispute could be emerging, as a result of the Australian government's carbon tax, which will be implemented on the 1st of July. The new legislation imposes a 23 dollar per tonne of carbon tax on many of the country's high polluting industries, including the energy and resources sectors. And some of these companies are involved in the processing of natural gas and oil in the Timor Sea. Agreements between Canberra and Dili state that revenue will be split once costs are deducted. While the Australian government receives the revenue from the cost of the carbon tax, little is known about how East Timor will be affected.

Greg Hunt is the Australian Opposition's Climate Change spokesman. He says East Timor stands to lose millions of dollars in revenue.

Hunt: The carbon tax hits East Timor, one of the poorest countries in the world, through the Bayu-Undan field of the Timor Gap. The revenues are shared jointly. East Timor gets the majority, and the government has imposed the carbon tax on this field but it doesn't pay it itself because it simply shuffles money between one source of Australian revenue and another. East Timor, however, is likely to be hit for millions and millions of dollars of carbon tax each year, every year, for the life of the field. So one of the poorest countries in the world will be subsidising one of the wealthiest countries: Australia.

Sawlani: In a statement, a spokeswoman for Australia Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet says the government in Canberra will consult with East Timor about any application of the carbon price within the Joint Petroleum Development Area and will ensure that any arrangements reflect Australia's obligations under international law.

Alfredo Pires is East Timor's State Secretary for Natural Resources. He says there's been no formal agreement between Dili and Canberra over the carbon tax.

Pires: The latest legal advice that I've been getting from my technical people is that on any agreement, and these things need to be discussed. So if there is an agreement in black and white, I would like to see it.

These are not small issues that you can decide unilaterally. It needs to go through it, there are big implications. Particularly, I understand that Australia needs to have an environmental piece of legislation, but you really need to consider before moving into areas that are not totally of the sovereignty of Australia.

Sawlani: He says it would be unfair if East Timor faced additional costs as a result of the new tax.

Pires: We will be very concerned about any additional costs that may have to be borne upon the country. But we need to look at the exact figures. But right now, as secretary of state and as part of the government, our main concerns is about the applicability of the legislation.

Right now, we would like to keep things as it is till we have further discussions, for us to analyse and see if there's any benefit. You've got to bear in mind that these are two countries, neighbours that are very different in terms of economical development. And anything that bears any additional cost to this little country will be seen as unfair.

Sawlani: Mr Pires says as a small nation, East Timor's contribution to global carbon emissions is insignificant, when compared to Australia.

Pires: I don't think we've been responsible as a small country, new country. This environmental damage is mainly done by a lot of industrial places. So we'll consider very carefully whether we're going down the line of paying anything at all.

East Timor faces hit by carbon tax

Sydney Morning Herald - April 26, 2012

David Wroe – East Timor could be slugged millions of dollars a year under the carbon tax, which is set to take a bite out of revenues from offshore natural gas fields that Australia shares with the impoverished nation.

The tiny country, which relies heavily on revenues from fossil fuel deposits in the Timor Sea, has expressed concern after learning recently it would likely be financially disadvantaged under the tax.

The federal government has acknowledged it needs to strike a compromise with its neighbour as to how the carbon tax will apply to greenhouse emissions arising from gas production in the Joint Petroleum Development Area, though no discussions have yet taken place.

Alfredo Pires, East Timor's Secretary of State for Natural Resources, told The Age the development area meant "a lot to our future", and his country would not accept the unilateral application of Australian legislation.

"This is a very young country and on the other side we have a big country with a very advanced economy," he said. "We like to have a very high standard of environmental requirements but at the end of the day we are a small country and I don't think our contribution to polluting the world is significant. There is a question of fairness in this, but then the whole question of the Timor Sea has a long history of what is fair and what is not."

He said he was also concerned that rising costs could hurt investment. "We are living in a very competitive world," he said.

Under the deal, the revenues from gas fields such as Bayu-Undan and about a fifth of Greater Sunrise are shared 90-10 between East Timor and Australia. The revenues are split after costs are deducted, including the percentages paid to the companies that extract the gas, notably ConocoPhillips, which operates Bayu-Undan and processes the piped gas in Darwin.

The extra costs imposed by the carbon price will cut the total proceeds. In Australia's case the government makes the money back because the carbon tax flows into its coffers. How much it will pay is unclear and depends on future negotiations, though a source said the figure could be in the tens of millions of dollars.

Francisco da Costa Monteiro, president and CEO of Timor Gap, E. P., East Timor's state-owned oil and gas company, said the matter was "a serious concern from the Timor-Leste side".

"If it is $11 million or $1 million, from Timor Leste's perspective it is quite significant. We have a lot of schools to rebuild and healthcare facilities to put in place."

A spokesman for the Climate Change Department said Australia would consult East Timor and ensure the carbon tax's application was consistent with international law.

Opposition climate spokesman Greg Hunt said the government appeared to have no understanding of the impacts of its own tax. "One of the poorest nations in the world will now be hit for millions each year by the carbon tax," he said.

People

Scarred leader seeks healing role

Brisbane Times - April 28, 2012

Lindsay Murdoch – Jose Ramos-Horta guns his Mini Moke along Dili's pot- holed backstreets, waving and laughing with barefooted children running to see their President.

"I'll show you the real Timor," he says as the Moke races past ramshackle homes where some of the world's most disadvantaged people live in squalor, despite a five-year government spending spree.

On the eve of leaving his country's highest office, Ramos-Horta, a Nobel laureate, lashed out at what he sees as the mismanagement of his fledgling nation, saying it needs to change direction to lift almost a million Timorese from poverty.

In interviews with The Saturday Age in Dili and the town of Suai, Ramos- Horta criticised government programs and policies, including stalled negotiations over the multibillion-dollar Greater Sunrise oil and gas project in the Timor Sea and the spending of almost $US800 million ($A771 million) on a troubled heavy oil electricity plant.

He also condemned a new generation of foreign-educated Timorese politicians involved in "pervasive corruption".

Four years after being shot and almost killed during an attack near his house, Ramos-Horta dismisses speculation he is set to accept a job overseas, saying he plans to remain in East Timor for at least two years to lead efforts to unite the country by pressing for Fretilin, the largest of the country's political parties, to be included in a ruling coalition. That ambition sets the scene for a bitter power struggle with Xanana Gusmao.

Gusmao and Ramos-Horta are East Timor's top two political figures, self- declared "brothers" who worked closely for years to create an independent East Timor. The outcome of their new rivalry will largely determine the future of the country a few hundred kilometres off Australia's north-west coast.

Gusmao, a former revolutionary leader-turned-Prime Minister, has for years strongly opposed Fretilin and is certain to try to block its return to power, six years after it was unseated amid political upheaval and violence that led to an international military presence.

Dabbing sweat from his face after hearing a litany of complaints from impoverished people at a public meeting in Suai, 62-year-old Ramos-Horta said that despite an extraordinarily high ($US1.67 billion) budget the government has squandered the chance to improve health and education services and to kick-start rural development in the country of 1.1 million.

"Xanana Gusmao cannot claim success because the country remains abysmally poor, poverty is pervasive and infrastructure like roads are far worse than they were five years ago," he said.

Many of East Timor's bishops and community leaders were disappointed and surprised that Ramos-Horta, whose leadership was pivotal in preventing civil war in 2006, came third in the first round of presidential elections in March, excluding him from a run-off election earlier this month.

But he was a reluctant candidate, deciding only at the last minute to stand again because 100,000 Timorese signed a petition urging him to put his name forward. "I did not want to run away. I made myself available," he said.

Since his defeat, Ramos-Horta has been inundated with requests not to abandon the country as it prepares to celebrate the 10th anniversary of its independence next month. He is considering options that include the creation of a high-level position where he could help broker an end to what he calls "lingering tensions" between groups in the west and east of the country.

He also may become a special envoy to help East Timor prepare to join the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Ramos-Horta said Fretilin, which won the most votes at the last election in 2007 but was unable to form government, must be part of any new administration formed after general elections in July.

"Fretilin represents the majority of people in eastern districts and is the strongest of the political parties – it has moderated itself after five years walking in the political wilderness," he said.

Ramos-Horta said if he could contribute to creating a coalition of east and west, "I will have made a huge contribution to the country."

He backs the view of analysts who say the country has fallen into the trap of a "resource curse", in which developing countries with an abundance of non-renewable resources neglect development needs.

The respected Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis (known as La'o Hamutuk or "Walking Together") warned recently that East Timor was heading towards financial disaster as declining oil revenues no longer sustained an economy dependent on government spending and imported production.

More than $US3 billion of petroleum revenue has been spent but this has scarcely improved the lives of most people, it said.

The government is also pressing ahead with a multi-lane south coast highway and development of a corridor of petroleum infrastructure for an industry that does not yet exist. The projects will cost billions of dollars.

Ramos-Horta said the government should have better-researched options to provide electricity in the country before signing an agreement to build the heavy oil power plant and a nationwide grid. The cost of the project has almost doubled amid complaints of unsatisfactory work by a Chinese state- owned company.

Ramos-Horta also said that East Timor could not afford not to develop the Greater Sunrise field, which would provide financial security for the country for up to 30 years.

He said it was a mistake for the Gusmao government to make piping the gas from the field to a refinery in East Timor a "matter of national pride". "The issue should not have been politicised – it should have been considered on the basis of technical and economic assessments," he said.

The government and Fretilin opposition are blaming each other for the Greater Sunrise stalemate ahead of a February 2013 deadline for reaching agreement on a plan.

Ramos-Horta says he is "frankly perplexed" that for 12 months the government refused to talk with the Woodside-led consortium that wants to build a floating LNG processing plant above the field, rather than piping the gas to East Timor.

The government even organised demonstrations against Woodside executives in Dili. "We must be the only country in the world that has organised demonstrations against international investors," he said.

The comments are certain to anger Gusmao, who has accused the consortium of trying to steal his country's natural resources.

Ramos-horta bears dreadful scars from his shooting in February 2008 – too shocking, he says, for people to see.

Sitting in his house overlooking Dili harbour where he was shot twice in the back, he spoke for the first time publicly about his belief that rebel soldier Alfredo Reinado was lured to his home after receiving a telephone call from someone claiming to represent him.

"I have no idea who that person is and what their motivation was – it certainly wasn't me," Ramos-Horta said. "Was it because some people didn't want Reinado to spill the beans in court about who was manipulating him since the 2006 crisis?" he said. "Did someone want Alfredo dead?"

Ramos-Horta said the shooting brought an end to sporadic violence because all sides of the conflict were shocked by the attack on him.

"Those who are religious – and I am only somewhat religious – would say that nothing happens by chance and the shooting of me was ordained because it stopped the violence," he said.

The President's helicopter swoops down from East Timor's mist-covered mountains to the town of Suai, 138 kilometres south-west of Dili, where on September 6, 1999, almost 200 people were massacred at the local church by pro-Indonesian militia.

Ramos-Horta listens in a local hall as community leaders complain about the government's broken promises to buy crops, poor roads, lack of reliable electricity and the fourth death in a crocodile attack in a month: there is no mention of justice for the 1999 killings.

Both Ramos-Horta and Gusmao have been accused of contributing to a culture of impunity for refusing to support prosecutions of Indonesian perpetrators of the 1999 bloodshed, in which at least 1500 people were killed nationwide.

"Both Xanana Gusmao and I agree that our first obligation is to safeguard the country and have good relations with our neighbours, especially Indonesia," Ramos-Horta said. "There are circumstances in life where some interests prevail over everything else."

Ramos-Horta said that while UN investigators focused on the 1999 atrocities, some horrendous crimes were also committed by the Timorese resistance after Indonesia's invasion in 1975. "So if you are going to bring people to justice, it should not just be the Indonesian side," he said.

Ramos-Horta leaves office at midnight on May 19, the night of East Timor's independence celebrations. He said he will not miss the trappings of office and has no wish to enter party politics. "There is life after being president – unfortunately people like me are much needed in the country," he said.

Analysis & opinion

Nationalism and nostalgia win in Timor Leste

Asia Times - April 26, 2012

Anna Powles, Dili – In a vote influenced by nationalism and nostalgia, Timor Leste's voters overwhelmingly chose former defense force chief Jose Maria Vasconcelos, more commonly known by his nom de guerre Taur Matan Ruak, as the young country's next president.

In a highly anticipated second round presidential run off on April 16, Taur Matan Ruak defeated Fretilin party president Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, polling 61.2% to 38.8% of the vote and winning 11 of 13 national districts. His win notably encroached on Fretilin's stronghold eastern districts and included a decisive majority in the capital, Dili.

The vote was as much a triumph for Taur Matan Ruak as it was a signal of popular dissatisfaction with Fretilin, Timor Leste's largest political party, and rejection of the increasing parochialism of national politics.

Taur Matan Ruak's success has been attributed in large part to the backing of his political patron, Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. A former rebel leader during Indonesian occupation, he has remained a popular figure despite accusations of corruption and financial mismanagement against his government.

Gusmao has proven himself particularly adept at coalition politics amid doubts about his capacity to transition from guerrilla leader to government leader. The Taur Matan Ruak-Gusmao political ticket effectively used the imagery of their shared resistance histories to promote the strength of their leadership in contemporary politics.

Although Gusmao's political clout cannot be underestimated, it was not the whole story behind Taur Matan Ruak's resounding win. Taur Matan Ruak also successfully tapped into rising popular discontent with the slow progress of development following a decade of independence. This includes dissatisfaction over issues of corruption, social and economic inequity, and the distribution of justice.

Drawing heavily on the interrelated concepts of nationalism and nostalgia, Taur Matan Ruak promoted the unifying concept of a renaissance in the independence struggle with the evocative campaign slogan "Together with you in the past, our blood intertwined towards our independence. Together again with you today, we toil towards a better future."

The central message was that while the first decade of independence was dedicated to state-building, the social and economic emancipation and participation of the people had yet to be achieved.

The mix of nationalism and nostalgia clearly resonated with grassroots voters. By calling upon Timorese to reject passivism and take an active role in everyday political decision-making, Taur Matan Ruak sought to invoke a sense of empowerment among the disenfranchised and positioned himself as the leader to lead the next wave in Timorese self-determination.

His leadership credentials have been drawn exclusively from his resistance pedigree and his support from traditional power bases. Significantly, Taur Matan Ruak courted the support of the Catholic Church, which remains a powerful institution within Timorese society.

Against this nationalist narrative, his lack of political experience appears to have worked distinctly in his political favor, suggesting to the electorate that he is unsullied by the excesses of power that have increasingly alienated the majority of Timorese voters.

Given the limited constitutional authority of the presidency over domestic policy, will Timor Leste's next president be able to deliver on his many ambitious campaign promises?

On the campaign trail, Taur Matan Ruak identified addressing the needs of two main groups – veterans and former combatants, and youth – as critical to peace and security given their occasional roles as challengers to the state.

Managing their expectations will be a fine line between the sense of entitlement instilled at the ballot box and the political limitations of the presidential office. It is unclear if the president-elect will be beset with the same frustrations shared by his predecessors, Gusmao and outgoing President Jose Ramos Horta, who both reached the realization after one term in office that real power lay in government.

The president plays a key role in the appointment of the prime minister, serves as supreme commander of the defense force, and exercises critical powers of veto over parliamentary legislation, judicial pardons, dissolution of government and parliament, constitutional reviews and national referendums. In light of Taur Matan Ruak's strong domestic focus, the presidency's powers will provide considerable leverage to his agenda.

Next democratic test

Speculation is rife over what Taur Matan Ruak's decisive victory will mean for national parliamentary elections due on July 7. The Taur Matan Ruak- Gusmao ticket represents a potentially significant bloc. There is no guarantee, however, that this electoral success will be replicated at the parliamentary level, nor is the alliance between the two former resistance commanders without its own tensions.

Given the landslide support received by Taur Matan Ruak, Gusmao would be wise to hitch his future fortunes to that of the President-elect and reinvent himself as distinct from the Alliance for a Parliamentary Majority (AMP) of which his party, the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), is the leading coalition partner.

Despite the electoral rout, Guterres – and by extension Fretilin – enjoyed an increase in support from 28% in the first round presidential election to 38% in the final run off by picking up votes from the defeated first round candidates, including Ramos Horta and leader of the Democratic Party, Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo.

It could be argued that the Achilles' heel of Guterres's presidential bid was the Fretilin party itself and its failure to accurately gauge the electorate's political mood despite five years in opposition. For instance, the heated rhetoric and charged campaign rallies by the self-proclaimed Fretilin militants was wholly out of step with the mood of the violence- weary populace. Rumors that Fretilin would be open to forming a coalition with its rivals, if true, raises questions about the party's political future.

Much has been made of the alliance formed between Ramos Horta and Lasama following their mutual defeat during the first round of the presidential election. Pundits believe the alliance aims to serve a kingmaker role in the upcoming parliamentary elections and provide Ramos Horta with the numbers to challenge Gusmao's leadership, including potentially for the prime ministership itself.

The nature of Timorese coalition politics, however, cautions against early predictions as the horse-trading has only just begun. Recent statements by Lasama that his party is open to forming a coalition with Gusmao's CNRT if it wins a parliamentary majority is indicative of his political expedience and underscores Ramos Horta's political quandary in the wake of his falling out with former ally Gusmao. Coupled with alleged fractures within Lasama's Democratic Party, Ramos Horta may yet seek alternatives to the alliance.

The relatively peaceful presidential elections have been touted widely as a democratic success. That owes in large part to the conflict-weariness of the Timorese people, the growing maturity of the political process, and the zero tolerance approach to political violence exhibited by the national police force. The chief of the defense force, Major General Lere Anan Timur, gave potential election spoilers three options: the hospital, the prison, or the grave.

Lere's statement, instances of political intimidation by uniformed soldiers at polling stations, and the visual imagery of Taur Matan Ruak and Gusmao in military uniform on campaign billboards and ballot papers, signals the resurgence of the military in national politics and is expected to play a role at the upcoming parliamentary elections.

The United Nations Integrated Mission in Timor Leste has cited the absence of significant electoral violence as a precursor to their departure at the end of 2012. The real stability test, however, will be at the parliamentary polls where the political dividends – and pay-offs – will be much greater.

[Anna Powles, formerly an adviser to the Timorese government, is a security analyst and author. She is currently in Timor Leste consulting for several international agencies and researching a book on the 2006 political crisis. She may be reached at powlesar@gmail.com.]

Post colonialism

The Dili Weekly - April 24, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – States that have been colonised commonly reflect elements of their colonial past. Timor-Leste has the unusual distinction of having been colonised by two different powers in living memory, with each leaving significant elements of themselves imprinted upon Timorese society.

The imprint of Portuguese colonialism is officially recognised and embraced, not least through official language, architectural heritage, religion and a continuing affinity with Lusophone states. Even Tetum, an indigenous trading language developed from the older Tetum Terik, is heavily inflected with Portuguese, particularly in its courtesies.

Despite the often neglectful and sometimes brutal nature of Portuguese colonialism, Timor-Leste's elites in particular retain fond memories of Portuguese paternalism. Their relationship to the other colonial power is more qualified, yet Indonesia has also left indelible imprints in Timor- Leste.

Timorese cuisine may have many sources, but one does not have to go far to find masakan padang and its many local variants, or bakso or mie. And one can travel from one end of Timor-Leste to the other and speak Indonesian with only slightly less opportunity than using Tetum itself.

Indeed, many malae who believe they speak Tetum often actually speak a blend of Tetum and Indonesian; one would be berani to say otherwise. Although there are indigenous Tetum words for numbers, it is more common to hear them expressed in Indonesian. This was particularly telling during the two presidential electoral rounds, when polling station staff called out the ballot box tag numbers not in one of the official languages of Timor- Leste but in Indonesian.

In a country in which there are so many languages, it is a case of, if it works then it is okay. No-one seems too concerned about what is and what is not 'official'.

There are, of course, also negative reminders of Indonesia's influence. The popularity yet nutritional inadequacy of 'super-mie' is a problematic learned behaviour from Indonesia, although the adoption by many women of the Indonesian kebaya looks as elegant in Timor-Leste as in Java. Batik is also still popular, not least as a rural head-dress.

The relationship between the armed forces and the police, though much improved, has more than a hint of Indonesian-style rivalry in it. And the fashion of uniforms, particularly of officers, is more than a little reminiscent of the former occupiers. So, too, the Indonesian fascination with uniforms for its public service has found its way into Timor-Leste's public service. A Timorese friend said, showing off his new public service uniform: 'It's good! Do you like it?' I replied, I hope politely: 'It is very nice.' In Indonesia, public service (a term - pembantu umum/public assistant – which Indonesian public servants very much dislike using for its lack of status) uniforms became standardised under Suharto's New Order and reflected his and his military's aspirational fascism. It was only disorganisation that stopped them from achieving this dark goal, although there is no doubt that, from time to time, they really tried. There is probably a place for uniforms, in the police and the army. But perhaps that place is not the public service. This is very much an echo of the old Indonesia.

So too political rallies, body paint, political flags and a three day cooling off period before elections were all pioneered for Timor-Leste in Indonesia.

As Timor-Leste's largest and closest neighbour and occupying a larger part of the archipelago of which Timor-Leste is a part, it is unsurprising that Indonesia's influence should still be felt so strongly. As Indonesia has changed, too, it is unsurprising that the real politik of good neighbourly relations is giving way to a more genuine friendship.

Indonesia still has many problems and retains some undesirable qualities that Timor-Leste would do well to avoid, corruption and elements of its more organised forms of crime being prime among them. But Indonesia is, in many respects, a state much removed from that which invaded and occupied Timor-Leste for 24 years. Many observers had noted that it was not the Indonesian people – or peoples, as there are so many varieties of them – that were to blame for what happened in Timor-Leste. That was the responsibility of a repressive authoritarian government propped up by a brutal and self-serving military.

Those days have, largely, gone. There is still some way to go with security sector reform in Indonesia and its democracy has had ups and downs. But it has progressed, generally well, and Indonesia is now a more rather than less democratic state.

Parallel to this, Timor-Leste has also democratised, with many even adopting the old 'New Order' term for the democratic process: pesta demokrasi, or festival of democracy. Under Indonesia's New Order, one needed a fine sense of irony to use this term.

But in Timor-Leste, the festival of democracy has taken on a new, full and rich meaning. The first part of the festival has concluded. We now await the main act.

Timor Leste: Notes on the 2012 presidential elections

Max Lane - April 20, 2012

The second round vote for the President of Timor Leste has been announced. The two candidates were Lu'olo (Francisco Guterres), a candidate put forward by Fretilin and Taur Matan Ruak (Jose Maria Vasconcelos), a non- party candidate, being supported by Xanana Gusmao, current prime minister and president of the political party, National Council for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT). In the first round there were 12 candidates, Lu'Olo and Matan Ruak were the top two scoring 28% and 23% respectively. Other candidates who had relatively strong showings were current president, Jose Ramos Horta, who was a non-party candidate as well as Fernando de Araujo, president of the Democratic Party (PD), and currently speaker of the parliament. The PD has been a member of the current coalition government led by Xanana Gusmao and the CNRT. Both Araujo and President Horta scored similar votes at around 18%.

In the second round Matan Ruak (TMR) won with 61% to Lu'olo's 39%. (Figures rounded).

This was a very strong win for TMR, beyond what the figures show: however it is a win that still leaves some basic questions unanswered. Below are some notes on based on observations from afar and chats with contacts in TL on the elections, and on the prospects for new emerging forces to play a role.

Reading the results?

The absence of any ongoing, reliable polling processes as well as of an extensive media, including district based media, makes it very difficult for the outside observer (and perhaps also even Timorese political actors) to know for sure what the mass of the population are thinking about politics. The majority of the population lives in rural village communities, more-or-less based on subsistence agriculture, geo-politically separated from the gossip-intense hot house of Dili (and even Bacau). An outside observer, such as myself, is very dependent on information and judgments of Timorese contacts, in whose judgments one has confidence.

Fretilin's failure to rebuild after 2007 vote collapse

In Timor Leste's first election, Fretilin scored 60% of the vote. In the second election, it collapsed to 29%. Fretilin has not been able to rebuild after this collapse. (Fretilin today, although claiming continuity with the revolutionary Fretilin of 1975, is essentially a moderate-to-conservative social democratic party, promoting a private sector led development strategy for TL and with a very electoralist perspective on political change. In relates to the Australian Labour Party in Australia. At its last party congress it invited the tycoon capitalist head of Suharto's former party, GOLKAR, Aburizal Bakrie. It was the party that legislated lifelong pensions for all members of the first parliament, gave the telecommunications to a private monopoly majority owned by Portugeuse, and followed closely most of the recipes from the IMF and World Bank on financial matters.)

Lu'Olo's first round vote of 28% is almost the same as it received in the first round presidential elections in 2007. In 2007, in the second round, Fretilin won 30%, whereas this time Lu'olo won 39%. For various reasons the 39% vote must be seen as a major failure for Fretilin and its "allies" this time around.

Pro-Fretilin optimists may see this vote can be seen as evidence of resilience of Fretilin's support. However, Fretilin has worked very hard over the last four years to improve its standing and popularity. It has carried out a consistent strategy of putting itself forward as the alternative government, strongly attacking the current government for incompetence and being riddled with corruption, or at least unable to handle corruption. It has campaigned consistently to renew its image and authority in the districts throughout this period. Last year, it carried out an exercise of a public process of a mass direct vote for its leadership by its whole claimed membership – for President and Secretary- General – to show it had transparent processes and the its leadership was close to the masses. The vote elected Lu'olo and Fretilin president and Mari Alkatiri as Secretary-General – there were no other candidates. It claimed that more than 100,000 members voted. This represented more-or-less 100% of those who had voted for Fretilin in the 2007 and 2012 elections – if indeed the claim was not an exaggeration.

During the 1st round presidential campaign, Fretilin also made it a point to characterize Taur Matan Ruak as not only supported by Xanana Gusmao, whom they have been strongly opposing and criticising, but aligned with him, calling Matan Ruak a "stooge" of the Prime Minister.

So another reading of these 2012 votes is that Fretilin's strategy, tactics and campaigns since 2007 has not resulted in any substantial improvement in its level of support. This can, perhaps, also be interpreted as an inability by Fretilin to win support for its style of opposition to the current Xanana-led government – despite the many failings of the government. The failure of Lu'olo to increase his vote despite the hard campaigning of Fretilin and Lu'olo over the last four years must raise the question as to whether Fretilin has reached its maximum level of support.

In 2007, Lu'Olo's first round vote increased from 28 to 30% in the 2nd round, i.e. basically stayed the same. In 2012 it increased from 28% to 39%. However, this more substantial increase was despite the de facto support of Ferdinand Araujo (Lasama) from the Democratic Party, from president Jose Ramos Horta and from the Social Democratic Party as well as maverick Fretilin figures such as Lobato. In the first round their combined vote was over 40%, yet Lu'Olo's vote only increased 10-11%. These figures made public statements of neutrality, but the universal talk on the ground was that were supporting Fretilin and having joint meetings with Fretilin. (see more comments below)

I think it is very likely that the actual Fretilin vote stayed at 28%, or even decreased.

The inability of Fretilin to rebuild after the 2007 collapse, despite a very aggressive, adversarial campaign against the Xanana government is likely to set in motion a dynamic where Fretilin's position and influence decreases further, continuing the trend towards collapse.

The non-Fretilin vote

As in 2007, 70% of voters did not vote for other non-Fretilin candidates in the 1st round and 60% in the 2nd round. But also at least 50% voted for candidates that were not putting themselves forward in a way where there was clear linkage with the question of whom should be in government. In fact, this lack of a clear linkage with the question of who governs probably can be said to apply to the whole 70%. This link is clear in Lu'Olo/Fretilin's case, but not for anybody else.

It could be argued that Xanana's clear identification with TMR in his campaign linked TMR with Xanana and CNRT. To the extent that this is true, TMR's first round vote of 23% was less than Fretilin's indicating also that Xanana also has been unable to build upon his 2007 vote, when CNRT also scored about the same figure.

Most of the lesser candidates could not claim to be a part of any strategy to win government. Matan Ruak, though he received support from Xanana Gusmao, did not come forward as a CNRT candidate, but was rather mobilizing his prestige as a former guerilla leader and then commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. Much of his explanations in the lead up to the campaign distanced himself from any one party. Fretilin's criticism of Matan Ruak as a 'stooge' of Xanana, in fact, may have started a process of making his candidature more partisan based. Fretilin's very adversarial approach to other political forces – who have actually no ideological or platform differences with it – often accelerates polarisation. According to the contacts I speak with, the campaign speeches of the two candidates were laced with ample attacks on each other.

Ferdinand Araujo as leader of PD has been an important part of the current coalition government, but he too had sent out signals that this may not continue.

(1) Jose Ramos Horta and Ferdinand Araujo

Both these men, whose combined 1st round vote comes to 35%, have stated they are neutral in the Presidential elections and have urged their supporters to vote for whomever they like. Horta, the current President and a man of considerable stature, has repeatedly stated, even during the 1st round campaign period and before, that he considers both Lu'olo and Matan Ruak equally qualified and good candidates for President. It appears – at least from a distance- that after talks between Horta and Araujo, Araijo has also adopted a neutral stance.

There have been any reports and analysis circulating, on the internet and by word of mouth, that Horta and Araujo are contemplating forming an alliance and that they are moving towards, or have already decided to consider supporting a Fretilin alliance government after the parliamentary elections. The circulation of these reports may operate to counter-balance their public statements of neutrality, in the sense that many commentators and politicos are now speaking of them as part of an emerging coalition with Fretilin and that they really support Lu'olo's campaign. However, given Fretilin's inability to go above 28% in the 1st round even after 4 years of campaign work, a full-blooded campaign by the two men in support of Lu'olo may have been needed to produce a real increase in the vote for Lu'olo, instead of the ambiguous neutral-public, supportive-private policy.

There may be more to this new development and President Horta's cooperation with Araujo. Horta won his impressive 18% vote with no support from an established, national political party or machine. While part of his vote may be due to some strong loyalties in particular districts, it is his role as a non-partisan, peace-maker that is the basis of the broader authority he has won as the main form of his long participation in the struggle for independence. His decision to pardon the men who shot him in the back is one of the most dramatic symbols of this role. At the moment, the "platform" being adopted by Horta and Araujo is also one of "non- partisanship, and peace-making". They proclaim that both Presidential candidates are equally good men. President Horta's early criticisms of the election process has been allegations made in relation to physical intimidation by some of Matan Ruak's supporters. As a result of these statements, Horta has won a public commitment by both Lu'Olo and Matan Ruak on March 30 that their supporters would not engage in such activities.

Many of the circulating reports analysing and speculating these developments are suggesting that in the June elections a "3rd block" comprising the parties ASDT (until his recent death headed by Timor's 1st president, Xavier Amaral), PD and the Social Democratic Party (PSD), including Ramos Horta will emerge competing with both Fretilin and CNRT, but more open to cooperation with Fretilin than with CNRT. If this indeed develops, it would seem likely that such a bloc would include as part of its "branding", a non-partisanship, and peace-making approach. This would contrast with both Fretilin's aggressive adversarial style as well as Xanana Gusmao's active campaigning for Matan Ruak, and his own adversarial response to Fretilin. Such a bloc would be able to make use of President Horta's reputation in that area.

But such a bloc would also have to make its positions on other policies clear, and the records of both Fretilin and CNRT but also PD and PSD, who have been part of the current government. It will be impossible to remain non-partisan. In fact, it is likely that President Horta's intervention into the party political process may have already weakened his authority and charisma as a peace-maker diplomat standing above the party fray. This may also be one of the reason's for the minimal support for Lu'Olo from former voters for Horta.

(2) Xanana Gusmao and CNRT

Xanana Gusmao and CNRT clearly supported Matan Ruak in both rounds, along with the Socialist Party of Timor (PST). In his post-victory speech, TMR gave specific thanks to both the CNRT and PST. (In the first round, the PST effectively split its vote between Horta and TMR, but all PST votes went to TMR in the 2nd round. In villages where PST has a majority, the vote for TMR is reported to be 90%). What is not yet clear to such a long distance observer such as myself is what has been the content of either CNRT's or TMR's campaigning.

While the campaigning framework has been essentially for the position of President – who is NOT the head of government – the campaigning has not focussed on government policies. The sharp conflict at the moment between Fretilin and CNRT has not yet produced a clear for-and-against policy framework. Mutual recrimination seems to be dominant.

TMR did keep to his general manifesto, however this is formulated in a fairly general way and is not too dissimilar in its basics from other parties. (In fact, 90% of the TL parties have a similar general approach to economic development strategy, i.e. private sector driven.) I have also heard reports that TMR made regular criticisms of the life-long pensions for members of parliament, introduced by the Fretilin majority parliament before 2007.

The question of what policy questions (no doubt to be taken from the Strategic Development Plan) CNRT and Xanana Gusmao emphasise in campaigning between now and the June elections will be one factor determining how the 70% non-Fretilin constituency will vote. With both Fretilin and probably also CNRT stagnating, or even declining, in the mid to low 20% range, what other smaller parties do may also be important. (I don't include PD here. I think it has become too fractured internally, and now too compromised in terms of where it actually stands, that it is likely also to be a spent force.)

At its most recent congress,, CNRT passed a resolution that it would not govern again in coalition. Xanana stated that he would rather be in opposition that rule via coalition again. He has had to govern with whatever talent (or lack of it) that his coalition partners have provided and in a constant state of internal negotiations and bargaining. To do this CNRT needs to win at least 50% of the vote. If indeed Fretilin has plateaued at 30% then theoretically/mathematically this is not impossible. CNRT has to get 50% of that remaining 70%. However, the fact that Xanana's support for Matan Ruak did not result in a vote better than 23%, also makes this very unlikely. If a 3rd bloc does emerge (Horta-ASDT-PD-PSD), this will make it harder, it would seem mathematically, for CNRT to win that 50%.

It is very likely that if Fretilin and CNRT both score somewhere in the 20%+ range, they will need a coalition with the smaller parties, (or each other). Separate from any assessment we might make now as to whether this is likely, if Xanana and CNRT are serious about ruling in their own right and winning 50% of that 70%, then it would natural for us to assume that they have some campaign strategy to try to do that. If this is the case, what is it? Is it the case? I don't know the answer to either of these questions.

But the campaign strategies for winning government are not yet clear for any of the non-Fretilin parties.

New emerging forces

As I noted above, with both Fretilin and probably also CNRT stagnating, or even declining, in the mid to low 20% range, what other smaller parties do may also be important. It could be that 50-60% of the vote may be divided among several smaller parties. In its recent new edition of Suara Sosialis Timur newspaper (now being published fortnightly), the Socialist Party of Timor (PST) has stated it is aiming to win 10 seats, up from its current zero. The PST has underwent an impressive expansion during the last 4-5 years, emphasizing methods such as intensive political education, door-to- door campaigning, building its university student organisation FRESTI (now important in its campaign work), and establishing model agricultural cooperatives. It has no doubt also benefited from the platform that its President, Avelino Coelho, was won with rural audiences through his role as Secretary of State for Energy Policy, responsible for the provision of free electrification in remote villages (via solar panels, as well as bio-fuel and bio-energy managed by Beneficiary Assemblies, successfully reaching around 15,000 households, delivering night-time lighting and other low- energy facilities to probably around 75,000 household members. Where such households were previously using kerosene as fuel, they have been saving $1 per day since the free electricity has been available.)

Can the PST win 10 seats? It is not impossible. From what I have seen in TL and based on statistical data provided by and conversations with their activists, it seems that they have a very good chance of winning at least 3-6 seats. They have consolidated their base support in a number of areas. The parliamentary results cannot be automatically extrapolated from the presidential elections. While the stagnation trend for Fretilin and the weak 1st round showing for TMR indicate that there is no clear leading force or personalities and that perhaps 40-50% of the vote is up for grabs, what happens in July will be now determined by what everybody actually does – how they campaign.

I think the most interesting thing to watch is how new, emerging forces – such as the PST – will campaign.

Talking to PST activists and from visits, it is clear that the PST is strong in: Atabae, the sucos of HATAS, Rairobo, Sanirin, Leolima and Leohitu; in Manatuto, Kairui, Bathara, Sananain; in Ermera, Estado, Mertutu, Raimerhei, Ponilala, Samara, Katrai Kraik, Katrai Leten, Leggimea, Mau Ubo, Lisapat, Lauana, Humboe, Batumanu, Koliati, Hatulia Vila, Manusae, and others; in Viqueque, Waguia (but in Waguia, Lu Olo won, while Taur got 190 votes), Bahatata, Laline, Ahiki, Ira Bin de Cima, Ira Bin de Baixo; Ainaro, Edi, Manetu, Aituto, Manelobas,; in Same, Aitnua, Mindelo, Foholau, Beremana, Liu Rai, Orana. PST has its base committees in nearly 100 Sucos. In those one hundred sucos, Taur won a large majority of votes, in some cases 90%.

Timor election a key test of stability

Melbourne Age - April 17, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – When East Timor's outgoing president, Jose Ramos-Horta, won office in 2007 by a crushing 69 per cent, many outsiders attributed the victory to his high profile as a campaigner for the country during the 24 years of Indonesian occupation.

There is no doubt that Dr Ramos-Horta was well known and well liked within East Timor, as well as outside, but his first round vote was a more modest 21 per cent.

So, too, when Taur Matan Ruak stood for the presidency last month, he achieved a respectable but modest 26 per cent. On Monday, his voted jumped to just over 61 per cent. It was backing and organisation by Mr Gusmao that elevated Dr Ramos-Horta to his unassailable final position. It was Mr Gusmao's backing that also secured Mr Ruak's victory over Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres.

Democratic politics is not – and should not be – about one particular individual. But there is little doubt that the former resistance leader, president and now prime minister, Xanana Gusmao, has a charismatic status, coupled with a wily political instinct, that casts him as the towering force in East Timor's politics.

Many, including other political actors, had believed that the result of presidential vote would be much closer than it transpired. This meant that the parliamentary elections of July 7 were expected to be a more open race, with no single party expected to achieve a majority in its own right, and likely coalition options for government less clear.

With no single party likely to achieve a majority in the parliamentary elections, the question became who would be best placed to form a coalition. Fretilin has done well to rebuild its vote from its 2007 defeat. Similarly, the current "parliamentary alliance" government, led by Mr Gusmao, has been notable for, among other things, tensions between coalition members.

With its own candidate out of the presidential race, the influential Democratic Party (PD) remained neutral in Monday's vote. Similarly, outgoing President Ramos-Horta, who supports PD in the parliamentary elections, also remained neutral.

But, on the spread of presidential voter returns, it appears that most voters who had supported PD or Dr Ramos-Horta rejected Mr Guterres and accepted the candidate supported by Mr Gusmao's party, CNRT. The message this will send to the Democratic Party's leaders is that, should they decide to join Fretilin in a coalition government, their support base could desert them.

Politics is always a tough game and nowhere more so than in a society devastated by a massively damaging war, on top of all of the problems of trying to develop this still dirt-poor country. Political deals are therefore often done despite personal differences and this may again be the case following the parliamentary elections.

It is this sometime fraught environment that has also led to outbursts of violence, as opposite camps compete for scarce resources. The 2007 elections were held very much in the shadow of the 2006 violence that brought East Timor to the brink of civil war. Despite a strong international security presence, those elections were marred by considerable violence and much destruction.

By contrast, the 2012 elections have been remarkably calm. There have been a few relatively minor disturbances compared to 2007. But as the shape of the political landscape becomes increasingly clear following Monday's ballot, tensions may again rise.

In particular, Fretilin appears adept at turning out a consistently strong single party vote, if to date less able to secure majority support from non-Fretilin parties. Should it receive the single largest vote, as it did in 2007, Fretilin will probably claim, as it has done since 2007, that under Section 106 of the East Timorese constitution, the president is obliged to select the new prime minister from the party with the most votes in parliament.

Had Mr Guterres won the presidency, this would have been the likely outcome. However, Mr Ruak may adopt his predecessor's interpretation of the constitution, which says the prime minister can also be selected on the basis of commanding an alliance constituting a majority on the floor of the parliament. This is where the real tensions will be, as they were in 2007.

The UN is scheduled to draw down its presence by the end of the year and the Australian-led Stabilisation Force is scheduled to withdraw. The largely peaceful political environment to date suggests it is now time for the international community to let East Timor stand on its own two feet, and that is the preferred option within East Timor.

How the country goes into the parliamentary elections and, more importantly, how it comes out of them, will be the true test of whether East Timor has genuinely consolidated its democratic process. It will also be the test of whether East Timor can remain a stable, developing state.

[Professor Damien Kingsbury is co-ordinator of the Timor-Leste Friendship Network/Deakin University Observer Mission to East Timor's 2012 elections.]

Timor-Leste's language policy: The boulder on the shoe - analysis

Eurasia Review - April 14, 2012

Victor R Savage – The current presidential election in Timor-Leste has brought international visibility to this rather marginalised state within Southeast Asia. The freedom-fighter generation of Timor-Leste has everything to be proud of in these elections. This is one country which testifies that an irredentist movement that fought for independence could eventually create statehood in the 21st century. It also underscores a moment in Indonesian history when the domestic fervour for reformasi was best symbolised not just in political change in Indonesia but in the granting of independence for East Timor as it was then known.

The simmering issue on the ground in Timor-Leste however has less to do with the presidential election. The likely source of future political debate lies in its language policy. The Timor-Leste government has chosen to use Portuguese as its official language of government since 2002 despite the fact that less than five percent of the population spoke the language. According to official sources the government chose Portuguese to safeguard their unique culture and identity, maintain their connections with the former colonial master, Portugal, as well as their privileged ties and friendships with other Portuguese-speaking nations. While the country's leaders had privately defended keeping the Portuguese language as a matter of heritage, they have also recognised the importance of learning English in schools to survive in a competitive world and to popularise Bahasa Indonesia.

Yet on the ground one gets the feeling that Portuguese has been given priority because it is the language of communication of the political and social elites – in short it is an elitist language in Timor Leste. This language policy has its own challenges.

Firstly, Portuguese is not an international language that will connect the people of Timor-Leste with a globalising world. Besides Portugal, the only Portuguese-speaking heavyweight is Brazil which is thousands of kilometers away. The ability to connect with the rest of the world for trade, tourism and business is likely to be hampered. In Asia, Portuguese is no longer a language of political power that it once was from Goa to Malacca and Macau in the 16th century.

Secondly, Portugal is certainly not a country of economic and political prowess either globally or in the European Union (EU) to warrant the use of its language. Indeed Portugal forms one of the five PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) countries of the EU where the governments are saddled with huge debt. Portugal cannot be expected to lend financial support and advice to the Timor-Leste government. As one Timorese researcher said to me: "Portugal is a poor country, Timor-Leste is poor, and the relationship will make Timor-Leste poorer." When there are so many more economically developed states in Asia, why does the Timor-Leste government need to reconnect with its former colonial master?

Thirdly, the current language situation in Timor Leste is highly diversified – the people are exposed to essentially four main languages and many more dialects: Tetum, the native language, Bahasa Indonesia which is widely spoken, English and finally Portuguese – a language retained by the older generation Portuguese Eurasians in Timor Leste. One can understand the logic that after having won a bloody war of independence with Indonesia, the government wanted to distance itself from Indonesia. Yet, the reality on the ground begs for a more pragmatic political consideration:

Bahasa Indonesia is already the unofficial lingua franca in the country; Timor-Leste cannot separate itself from its geographical links and geopolitical realities of Indonesia. Indonesia is the largest country in Southeast Asia – accounting for 40 percent of the region's land area, population and GNP. Many Timor-Leste government officials and educational personnel have graduated from Indonesian universities and technical institutes and estimates show about 5000 students are currently enrolled in Indonesian institutions. Indonesia is also currently a rising economy which Timor-Leste cannot afford to ignore and yet could tap into.

Why not English as the top official language?

If the Timor-Leste government did not want to use Indonesian as its official language, it certainly could have considered English as the official language of priority. This neutral language would be amenable to all citizens and offer far more advantages than Portuguese: i) English is a language of international politics, trade, tourism, and higher education; ii) it is quite widely spoken in the country amongst the informed public and even youths; iii) many students expressed keen interest in learning English rather than Portuguese which they find of no cultural or economic relevance; and iv) if Timor-Leste is interested in joining ASEAN, does it not make more sense to give priority to English which is the operating language of the region? Given that Australia, New Zealand, India, Singapore and the Philippines are all English-speaking neighbouring countries, the use of English will certainly give the government economic and political leverage.

It is noteworthy that a private university in Dili, as a protest against the government's language policy, decided to conduct its classes in Tetum, Bahasa Indonesia and English – leaving out Portuguese.

One might say the Timor-Leste government is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea in pursuing the Portuguese language: its biggest English-speaking neighbour Australia has been unfriendly and certainly opportunistic with regard to off-shore oil and gas reserves and its Indonesian neighbour is viewed with apprehension and veiled distrust. Yet language forms the foundation and bedrock of a country – language cannot be changed overnight once set in place.

For a fledgling country with limited resources and a low level of development, Timor Leste needs to consider pragmatic, long term and viable educational programmes. The government's belief that the people of Timor Leste can pursue a multiple-language educational programme (Tetum, Portuguese, English, Bahasa Indonesia) seems flawed since there are few examples of successful bi-lingual much less multi-lingual national programmes regionally or globally. While pre-independence East Timor might have been for Indonesia's former Foreign Minister Ali Alatas the "pebble in the shoe", the Portuguese language might be a veritable boulder on the shoe for independent Timor-Leste's future progress and development.

[Victor R Savage is an Associate Professor in Geography at the National University of Singapore and Honorary Vice-President of the Commonwealth Geographical Bureau. This article, specially written for RSIS Commentaries, reflects his personal views.]

What Australia doesn't want East Timor to know

Eureka Street - April 4, 2012

Pat Walsh – On 20 March, Attorney-General Nicola Roxon agreed to a Department of Foreign Affairs request to block public access to 34-year-old cables on the famine that ravaged East Timor early in the Indonesian occupation.

Roxon reportedly believes that release of the material would prejudice Australia's international relations. Given that Suharto and his regime have gone and that many other sensitive cables on the Timor question have been released over the last 12 years without damaging Australia's external relations, the decision is puzzling.

As someone who has spent many years working with both East Timorese and Indonesians to understand their shared history, I would argue that rather than cause for concern, the release of the cables would be generally welcomed in both countries as part of the free flow of ideas and information that both now enjoy.

Australia, as one of few witnesses to these events, should contribute what it knows so that these dark times are better understood and learned from in East Timor, Indonesia, Australia and elsewhere.

The famine of 1977-79 cut a swathe through East Timor's civilian population like the third horseman of the Apocalyse. Having failed to subdue the Timorese, the Indonesian military opted to starve them out. In addition to destroying food sources, forcing the population to flee and abandon gardens, the military also blocked international agencies from delivering aid until the army had achieved its military objectives.

When the US Catholic Relief Services was permitted to survey the situation in May 1979, its representative found conditions as critical as anything he had encountered during his 14 years experience in Asia. The famine, he reported, was not only claiming the very young and very old; many in their prime were also dying.

Most of the over 100,000 civilian deaths in East Timor during the 24 year war occurred at this time.

The significance of the famine to the Timorese was brought home in the course of the Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation's (CAVR) inquiry conducted after independence. Witnesses explained that Timor was no stranger to malnutrition, seasonal hunger or other tragedies, but this was the mother of all catastrophes. Whole families and communities were wiped out by starvation.

"In August 1977 in Idada we buried 80 bodies in one day," Manuel Carceres da Costa told CAVR. "They died of starvation. They died with swollen and aching stomachs, unable to walk."

Maria Jose da Costa's account was reminiscent of a 1950s rabbit drive in Australia: the military sprayed the long grass with gasoline and set fire to it to drive people out. Unable to run due to hunger, the elderly were left behind and died where they sat, defiant and dignified, dressed, she said, as if they were going to Sunday mass.

The famine dwarfs the Santa Cruz massacre and similar atrocities in scale and significance but is far less well known or analysed. This information gap is principally due to restrictions on access to East Timor applied by the Indonesian military until 1989. As a result most Indonesians are not only ignorant of what happened but continue to believe the Suharto regime's claims that the military was doing good work in East Timor.

Knowledge of what really happened is therefore an important corrective. It will help Indonesians understand why East Timor chose to separate from Indonesia in 1999 and why civilian control of the military is critical.

The period is also a blind spot internationally. Journalists continue to attribute the death-toll in East Timor to shooting and bombing rather than starvation, and researchers are unaware of the famine.

Cormac O Grada, an Irish expert on famine, makes no mention of East Timor in his 2009 study "Famine, A Short History", though he provides analysis and lessons from totalitarian famines of the 20th century in Stalin's USSR and Mao Tse-tung's China. Likewise Thomas Kenneally's book "Three Famines: Starvation and Politics" does not include the famine that occurred on Australia's doorstep though it illustrates his thesis.

East Timorese want to know more about the events that forced them to abandon families and have left them troubled because remains cannot be found for reburial according to custom. They also want to know why a crime of this magnitude has not been accounted for.

Australia can help them because it was a witness and what it saw is presumably contained in official cables from the time. Australia's ambassador to Indonesia was one of 11 diplomats to visit the territory in September 1978. Shocked at what he saw, he joined colleagues from Canada, Japan and the US to call for urgent relief. Assistance did not arrive until 12 months later, too late for many thousands of innocent people.

It will be hard to look an affected Timorese family in the eye today and explain why, over 30 years later, Australia does not want them to know what it knows about this catastrophe.

[Pat WalshPat Walsh has returned to Australia after working for ten years in East Timor, mostly as part of the Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconcilation. The UN recruited him to help establish the Commission and he served variously as its executive director and special adviser. Following the Commission's dissolution in 2005 he served as senior as senior adviser to the Post-CAVR Technical Secretariat.]

East Timor's future without Gusmao

New Matilda - April 2, 2012

Tim Anderson – East Timorese PM Xanana Gusmao looks likely to lose government to Fretilin in June. Gusmao's mixed legacy proves that a great resistance leader does not necessarily make a great nation builder, writes Tim Anderson.

There are signs that East Timor will soon have not only a new President but also a new government, one that will not include current Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

The electorate's focus is now on the second round Presidential elections, due on 16 April. However the new government will be further shaped by the June parliamentary elections. That government will have a series of challenges, not least from the five year legacy of Gusmao's government.

The Presidential second round is beginning to favour the Fretilin candidate, Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres (28.8 per cent in the first round). Most of the Timorese Social Democratic Association (ASDT) and former Fretilin Minister Rogerio Lobato (who ran fifth with 3.5 per cent) now back Lu Olo. The three female first round candidates, plus Lurdes Bessa, the Vice-President of the Democratic Party (PD), now also back Lu Olo.

On the other side, important allies of Gusmao, who backs former army general Taur Matan Ruak (25.7 per cent in the first round), have the current Prime Minister at arm's length. Third and fourth place-getters, President Jose Ramos Horta, PD leader (and Parliamentary President) Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo, and Social Democratic Party (PSD) President (and Gusmao's Foreign Minister) Zacarias Albano da Costa have all called on their supporters to exercise a "conscience vote". All this does not bode well for Taur Matan Ruak or for Gusmao.

Horta has also made some comments against Taur's campaign (over the use of military uniforms and intimidation), indicating he favours Lu Olo. Some suggest Horta wants to block a second Gusmao term.

Whoever wins the presidency, the most likely parliamentary outcome is a Fretilin-led coalition. Fretilin has always been the largest party in Timor. The only reason they were excluded from government in 2007 was that Gusmao managed to unify other groups against them. Since then, Fretilin's discipline has held up and the anti-Fretilin coalition has collapsed after bitter recriminations within the Gusmao-dominated government. A number of Gusmao's former allies would now work with Fretilin.

The collaboration announced between President Horta and the Democratic Party (PD) President Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo (third and fourth in the Presidential first round) does not signify a party block larger than Fretilin, even though their combined vote was 36 per cent.

Both men are well known and enjoy personal support, but that will not translate directly into parliamentary votes for the PD. Horta's supporters come from a wider group, while Lasama's personal vote in the 2007 Presidential elections was considerably higher than the PD vote that year. On the other hand, the Fretilin parliamentary vote is likely to be higher than Lu Olo's personal vote, as it was in 2007. Nevertheless, Horta's backing for the PD might mean that some of them would become candidates for inclusion in a Fretilin-led coalition.

Potential leaders of the new government are former Prime Ministers Mari Alkatiri and Estanislau Da Silva and former Deputy Prime Minister and Health Minister Dr Rui Araujo, who has worked with Fretilin for some time, but only recently joined the party.

It seems a change in government may be coming. So what legacy will Gusmao leave, and what are the key challenges for the new government?

Much has changed since independence. Most obviously, annual budgets have increased ten-fold, with incoming petroleum and gas revenue. Many of the basic elements of constitutional government are firmly in place. Yet there has been squandering of much of the new revenue, an escalation in corruption and waste, and failures to invest in the key sectors of education, health and agriculture.

Gusmao's legacy includes a series of economic liberal measures, a culture of corruption and weak capacity building. An elite culture was nurtured, where large "packets" of private contracts were distributed, combining infrastructure development with "economic stimulus".

This "big money" approach approved of by economic liberals such as former World Bank official Jeffery Sachs, did little to build institutional or human capacity. In many cases the infrastructure outcomes were seriously deficient. Any new government has to face the reaction of those elite groups if and when the tap is turned off.

Gusmao's coalition government has had little policy coherence, in part due to internal conflicts. Follow through on important programs suffered. The national literacy program, started by the Fretilin-led government, was neglected. The important health program with Cuba was maintained, but there was little investment in the new faculty of medicine. Hundreds of students arrived back from Cuba over 2011-12 to find very limited general development of the national health system. Investment in schools and the national university was similarly limited.

Timor's 2006 political crisis damaged agricultural programs and capacity and, as a result, domestic farm production in face of the 2008 global food crisis was weak. Import-dependent food programs were needed, but these too became a target of corrupt dealings. Support for small farming, which employs around 70 per cent of the population and forms the basis of future sustainable food supply, had never been high. Under Gusmao's government it fell from 5 per cent to less than 3 per cent of the state budget.

At the same time, there were several attempts to lease out land to foreign owned agro-industry and bio-fuel companies. Most of these projects did not go ahead. The parliament did change the Petroleum Fund law, removing many of the prudential controls on the country's main financial asset. Up to half that fund might now move offshore (even before the parliamentary elections) into the less accountable hands of external fund managers. And while the state budget became more dependent on petroleum revenues, the abolition of several classes of taxes restricted government options for raising alternative revenues. The tax base is very narrow.

Altogether this is not a pretty developmental picture for a country which had the advantages of relative stability, economic growth and substantial state revenues. One of the key lessons from Gusmao's government may be that a great resistance leader does not necessarily make a great nation builder.

Assuming that the new government will not be led by Gusmao, the first step would be to develop and chart a new development strategy.

A key priority must be the approach to education, training and general human capacity building. Gusmao's SDP did in fact have ambitious school completion objectives, but lacked the means to achieve them. State budget allocation to education fell from 15 per cent in 2005 to 10.2 per cent in 2010. Fourteen developing countries spend more than 25 per cent of their state budgets on education, and hardly any of these have the population growth rates of East Timor.

Similarly, public spending on health fell from 12 per cent of the state budget in 2005 to less than 6 per cent in 2010. That is, a strong decline in commitment to public investment in health, alongside the most rapidly expanding body of doctors in the world, thanks to the Cuban training program. The development monitoring body La'o Hamutuk points out that commitment to education and health shrank even further in the 2011 budget, to "less than a fifth as much as [the] physical infrastructure contracts with foreign companies".

Another priority area must be agriculture and food security. The Gusmao government's attempt to push into new export cash crops was counterproductive, in a country with limited arable land, food import dependence and a history of food crises. Some of the worst, recent Millennium Development Goal (MDG) outcomes were in child malnutrition. This Achilles heel in Timor undermines progress in health and education alike.

At the root of it are failures in rural development. A lot of attention is paid to Dili, but the fact is that most of the country's population is rural based. Further, the only sustainable food security solution lies in strong support for a small farming sector. In this regard Timor may have more to learn from the Japanese than from big agricultural exporters like Australia.

Yet another important challenge is how to manage the diverse army of foreign aid bodies or "development partners" in the country. The long term impact of the dual economies, inflation and outright racial discrimination from such regimes can be seen in cities such as Luanda, N'Djamena and Port Moresby: among the most expensive and unequal cities on earth.

Yet East Timor still has the capacity to develop that combination of a strong state and levels of participation which seem essential for successful development. Its national identity, sense of history and social conscience all remain strong. Despite all the recent problems, we can still expect remarkable things from this small country.

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