Canberra, Australia – Australian Defense Minister Stephen Smith says parliamentary elections planned in East Timor could allow international troops to begin withdrawing after six years of restoring stability to the fledgling Southeast Asian nation.

Smith on Monday welcomed the success of weekend presidential elections. The official results won't be known until Tuesday, but the incumbent, Nobel laureate Jose Ramos Horta, had nowhere near the support needed to advance to an April 21 run-off between the two front-runners.

Smith says if the run-off election and June parliamentary elections are similarly successful, Australia will discuss with the government, United Nations and New Zealand a drawdown of the 470 Australian and New Zealand troops stationed in East Timor.

UN forces ready as back-up in East Timor election

Agence France Presse - March 16, 2012

Dili, East Timor – More than 1,200 UN forces are ready to intervene in East Timor's presidential election this weekend if there is an outbreak of major violence, the top UN official in the country said on Friday.

East Timor, which gained formal independence from Indonesia a decade ago, will hold its second presidential poll as a free country Saturday with a line-up that includes the incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta, a Nobel laureate.

Ameerah Haq, the UN secretary-general's special representative for East Timor, told AFP that the campaign period had gone "remarkably well."

The peaceful run-up to the election stands in stark contrast to the rioting and factional fighting that erupted in 2006 ahead of elections the following year, which left at least 37 dead and pushed the country to the brink of civil war.

Last year the UN officially handed security responsibilities back to East Timor police, although around 1,200 UN forces remain in the country. The country's own security forces will officially safeguard the election but UN forces were ready to step up if needed, Haq said.

"The internal security institutions are much stronger, and we are only here to support them. Right now there is capacity within their own security institutions to handle any outbreak of violence," she said.

"Obviously, if there is something major and widespread we are still here until the end of December."

UN forces have been stationed on the half-island nation of 1.1 million people since the 1999 vote for independence and are due to pull out at the end of the year.

Twelve candidates are running for the presidency but the race is expected to be a three-way contest between Ramos-Horta, the Fretilin party's Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres and former armed forces chief Taur Matan Ruak.

Ramos-Horta won in a second-round of voting against Guterres in 2007, buoyed by the support of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor (CNRT) party.

But this time the party is backing Ruak, amid signs that the president and prime minister no longer see eye-to-eye on many issues. Ramos-Horta has become increasingly critical of Gusmao's government.

Ruak, who did not run in the 2007 election, is regarded as a hero for his record as a guerrilla leader during Indonesia's 24-year occupation and is seen as the wild card in Saturday's poll.

Rallies by Guterres and Ruak have pulled in the largest number of supporters. Two weeks of campaigning officially came to a halt on Thursday, two days ahead of the polls.

"In our estimation things have gone very well as the campaigning period is concerned," Haq said, noting that no serious violations or incidents were reported.

Haq said the UN was providing logistical support to the candidates and elections, including helicopter service to transport ballot papers to remote regions of the impoverished nation, which is virtually without infrastructure.

Australian troops must leave: Ramos-Horta

Australian Associated Press - March 7, 2012

East Timor's incumbent president Jose Ramos-Horta says he remains firm in the view that Australian and United Nations troops stationed in his country must withdraw before the end of the year.

There are about 400 Australian troops in East Timor as part of an international security force, deployed in the wake of violence which broke out in 2006 and took the tiny country to the brink of civil war.

Along with a contingent of just under 1000 United Nations security personnel, the Australian forces are scheduled to withdraw by the end of the year. "That's the agreement with the UN Security Council," Dr Ramos- Horta told AAP.

"We will enhance bilateral police agreements for training with regional countries like Australia, Indonesia, Portugal for training. But the UN is busy with many other problems around the world. They cannot continue to spend an inordinate amount of resources on East Timor."

Some international observers as well as business owners in East Timor remain concerned about the potential for violence to once again flare up as the country prepares to hold presidential and parliamentary elections.

The first round of the presidential poll will be held on March 17 while elections for the legislature will be held in mid-June. There are also concerns about the preparedness of the East Timorese security forces to cope following the withdrawal of international forces.

But Dr Ramos-Horta, who is again standing for president, has downplayed the risk of a repeat of the unrest of 2006, and which marred elections in 2007.

The country witnessed violence again in 2008 following assassination attempts against Dr Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

"I am completely reassured about security. I am confident the elections in March and June will go smoothly," he said. "Our police and the United Nations police are alert all over the country. They have tremendous experience over the years in assessing the situation, in pre-empting any security threats so I am very confident it will be okay."

There are 12 candidates standing in the presidential elections but it's likely the contest will come down to a race between Dr Ramos-Horta, Francisco Guterres from FRETILIN, and Taur Matan Ruak who retired as the head of the country's armed forces in 2011.

If no one gets at least 50 per cent of the vote, there will be a second- round run-off between the top two candidates.

In 2007, Mr Guterres was first in the vote count after the first round but failed to win the presidency after Prime Minister Gusmao's National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor party (CNRT) threw their support behind Dr Ramos-Horta.

However, CNRT has since deserted Dr Ramos-Horta for Mr Ruak, leaving many to believe that the former armed forces chief is now favoured to win the presidency.

Human rights & justice

Forgotten victims of East Timor's invasion demand to be heard

Sydney Morning Herald - March 12, 2012

Michael Bachelard, Dili – When East Timorese voters go to the polls on Saturday to choose their new president, every candidate with a chance of victory will be a veteran of the struggle against Indonesia.

The thousands of fighters in that long war, the oldest and best known of whom are the "generation of 1975", were recently provided with a generous compensation scheme set up by the government in recognition of their service.

But there is another group that has gone barely mentioned by this country's tight-knit political elite: the other victims of the invasion, the people, many of them women, who were raped or brutalised, or lost parents, husbands or children during the long occupation.

Domingas da Silva was 17 when the Indonesians invaded, and 21 when they took her captive during the mass surrender in the southern town of Viqueque in 1979. Over the following years she was raped multiple times and ultimately bore six children to different Indonesian soldiers.

At 54, the pain of those events still fills her with tears. "I felt like I lost my dignity and it was painful in my heart," she said last week.

Her family and neighbours rejected her, and only the local Catholic priest supported her.

Even so, Ms da Silva spent many years she can barely remember, her mind made blank by a mental illness she cannot name. "Because of this attitude it made me think too much, and then I got dizzy," she says.

Her mental state continued for 20 years, until after independence in 1999, when Ms da Silva was brought to the capital, Dili, and received help from a group called PRADET (Psychosocial Recovery & Development in East Timor), dedicated to trauma recovery. She is stronger now, and able to speak out. She wants some recognition of her pain, and some measure of justice, though not financial, because her children and grandchildren support her.

The Association for the Victims of the Conflict 1974-99 was formed to lobby for people such as Ms da Silva. A spokesman, Jose Luis Oliveira, says pleas for recognition have been ignored by the veterans and politicians. A bill tabled in East Timor's parliament seeking reparation for victims has languished since 2009.

"So the victims become victims again because the state is violating them by omission," he says. "This is very painful because in the past it was the victims who gave the soldiers food and helped the veterans in the jungle."

Ms da Silva's needs are secondary, among East Timor's leaders, to two more pressing issues. The first is the veterans, a powerful lobby who pose a threat of unrest in this tiny country.

The second is East Timor's desire to have a strong relationship with its powerful neighbour, Indonesia. Despite the mutual scars, East Timor's youth have embraced Indonesian brands and pop culture, and many of the traders are Indonesian, or from naturalised Indonesian stock.

At the political level, leaders across the spectrum have gone out of their way to forgive wrongs, forget the hurt and enter dialogue with East Timor's neighbour.

The presidential candidate for the political party Fretilin, Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, said: "As president of the republic my No. 1 role would be to nurture and maintain the relationship with Indonesia."

Mr Guterres, a veteran of the war whose wife and many relatives were killed by Indonesian troops, says now it's the responsibility of Indonesia and the UN to recognise victims and seek or provide justice. "It is the character of the people of Timor Leste that they know how to forgive," Mr Guterres says.

The former Australian envoy James Dunn believes "reconciliation is important for a lot of East Timorese people... but people still care a lot about it and feel really badly hurt".

Mr Oliveira says that the suffering of victims has "been traded for peaceful international relations". As for Ms da Silva, her plea is a simple one. "I ask the government, please, pay attention to us."

Political parties & elections

Democratic progress: East Timor election proves peaceful

Christian Science Monitor - March 27, 2012

The first-round vote of East Timor's presidential election went smoothly, defying low expectations based on the tiny country's violent history.

Sara Schonhardt – Dark clouds hung over this young nation the day before a much-anticipated presidential election on March 17. With jittery analysts playing up the potential for conflict, they appeared a powerful portent of the way polls could play out in a tiny country known for its far larger history of violence.

But more than a week after the polls closed peacefully, and ballot counting wrapped up with little contestation, East Timor appears to have cleared the first hurdle toward standing on its own.

The country, which is grindingly poor, has been under the watchful eyes of a United Nations' stabilization mission since factional fighting between police and security forces broke out in 2006, prior to the last election, killing 37 people and driving more than 100,000 from their homes.

That conflict came just four years after UN forces left for the first time, having governed the country in the rocky years after a bloody vote for separation from Indonesia in 1999.

Now, two men remain in the contest for president, which will go to a second round in mid-April. In the lead is Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, head of the hardcore leftist Fretilin Party, followed closely by Jose Maria Vasconcelos, a former armed forces commander popularly known as Taur Matan Ruak (Two Sharp Eyes) for his time spent devising military strategy against a brutal 24-year Indonesian occupation.

Both are decidedly different from incumbent, Jose Ramos-Horta, who was knocked out in the first round. The Nobel laureate who led the resistance against Indonesia from overseas spent much of his presidency advocating for the country on the international stage. Some political observers say Mr. Ramos-Horta's lackluster campaign, which paled against the flashy posters and flag-waving parades of his competitors, hurt his re-election chances. So did an apparent rift with Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, whose endorsement went to Mr. Ruak.

Others say poor support for Ramos-Horta owes largely to discontent with the country's development during his five-year term.

After years of increasing alienation from the government under a president many respected but saw as out of touch with East Timor's reality, people want a new man "driving" the country, says Nelson Belo, the director of Fundasaun Mahein, a local organization focused on defense and security issues.

Though the post of president is largely ceremonial, whoever wins will play a key role in forming the government after parliamentary elections in June. If those go well, the UN peacekeepers and a force of 460 Australian and New Zealand troops will pack up and go home – for good, they say.

"It's really important to the Timorese that they say goodbye," says Edward Rees, a long-time Timor observer. "People haven't gotten value for the money spent in the past five years."

In some ways they have. The country is now less violent and dysfunctional than it was, but long-standing divisions remain unresolved and many of the long-term reforms needed to improve the rule of law and ensure balanced development have stalled.

"We are experiencing growth without employment, relying on petroleum and importing everything," says Fidelis Magalhaes, the sharp, young leader of Ruak's campaign, referring to a billion-dollar petroleum fund that supports 90 percent of the country's ballooning budget.

Both sides say the country needs a president with a vision. Foreign advisers say it needs to take responsibility for its economic and political development. What seems to matter to voters, however, is visible change, and when they go to the polls again in April, they'll likely be voting for a president who they hope can deliver.

[Editor's note: A quotation was removed from the story because it violated the terms of the interview.]

Too little, too late for Ramos-Horta

Straits Times - March 21, 2012

Zubaidah Nazeer – In many ways, the re-election bid of East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta was doomed even before he threw his hat into the ring.

The man the world has come to respect and recognize as the nation's liberation fighter struggled to win over voters from the start and, in the end, came in a dismal 7 percent behind former armed forces chief Jose Maria Vasconcelos, known as Taur Matan Ruak, who finished second in last Saturday's polling with 25 percent.

Vasconcelos will face the top vote-getter, Francisco Guterres, known as Lu Olo, who pulled slightly more than 28 percent, in a run-off in mid-April.

Ironically, observers say cracks began appearing in Ramos-Horta's leadership when he began questioning and criticizing Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor Party (CNRT) over the budget and nepotism.

"The hallmark of Ramos-Horta's presidency over the last two years has actually been that he has been a much better and more impartial president than he had been for the first two," said Jose Texeira, a politician and spokesman for the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor party (Fretilin).

"He began to question the government's failure to deliver and corruption within the government a whole lot more."

But, he said, that put off Gusmao, once a close colleague of Ramos-Horta during the struggle for independence. "His downfall has been that he lost the support of the PM, who switched his support to Taur Matan Ruak," Texeira said.

Ermenegildo Lopes, who leads Bloku Ploklamador, a pro-reform alliance with five places in the 65-seat Parliament, said: "In a way, the President's success in speaking out against injustice and his able performance as a foreign minister and a prime minister before this had raised expectations that he could do more, push for more legislative reviews, question more.

The big blow came when CNRT chose to back Vasconcelos about three weeks before the elections. That left Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace laureate, without an influential ally.

Professor Damien Kingsbury of Australia's Deakin University, an East Timor watcher, said the Timorese have a strong loyalty to political parties. Thus, when a party like CNRT shifts its support, voters also shift their support along with it, even though they have a strong bond to resistance heroes such as Ramos-Horta.

As the president of Fretilin, Guterres has one of the country's largest groups of supporters. In the 2007 presidential elections, he won 27.89 per cent of the vote compared to 21.81 per cent for Ramos-Horta.

But that year, Ramos-Horta had the support of CNRT, allowing him to win the run-off by a landslide, earning 69 per cent of the vote compared to just 30.82 per cent for Guterres. The record number of 12 candidates this time around also hindered the President's campaign, said Lopes.

Finally, analysts believe that Ramos-Horta campaigned too little, too late. The incumbent justified his low-key approach by arguing that the people already knew where he stood on the issues.

His small team of campaigners helped hang banners across the capital Dili while he spoke in some districts and visited organizations and schools, among others. But his efforts were eclipsed by Fretilin's noisy political marches across the capital and Vasconcelo's 180 rallies across the country.

Despite the loss, many agree that Ramos-Horta's political career is hardly over. He is said to be exploring several options, such as writing a book on international relations.

"Ramos-Horta is a person of tremendous ability and good will for our people," said Texeira. "He has certainly done a great deal to bring the political adversaries in the country together to engage in dialogue more."

"Therein lies his great talent, as a diplomat and conciliator. He has much to offer both at national and international level. He will continue to be indispensable in promoting Timor Leste on the international stage."

Ramos-Horta seeks new alliance in bid for leadership role

Sydney Morning Herald - March 21, 2012

Michael Bachelard – Less than a week after Jose Ramos-Horta lost his bid for another term as president of East Timor he has decided to throw his weight behind the country's third party, the Democrats, for the June parliamentary election.

The 1996 Nobel laureate, who helped shepherd the tiny nation to independence in 1999, will shun the two major parties, Fretilin and CNRT, and push for the upstart Democratic Party to lead the country.

The party is headed by Fernando Lasama de Araujo, who came fourth in the race on Saturday for the presidency. Dr Ramos- Horta came second. Between them they won about 36 per cent of the vote – not enough for either candidate to proceed to the second round of voting on April 21, but a formidable bloc in the June parliamentary elections.

The move pits Dr Ramos-Horta against his former ally and friend Xanana Gusmao, the Prime Minister. Mr Gusmao's CNRT party had refused to back Dr Ramos-Horta in the presidential race.

The move suggests the parliamentary race will become a tight battle between three parties: the Democrats in alliance with Dr Ramos-Horta, Fretilin, whose presidential candidate, Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres, won the first round of the presidential election, and Mr Gusmao's CNRT.

In East Timor the prime minister does not need to be a member of the parliament. Some observers speculated that Dr Ramos-Horta was hoping the Democratic Party would win and appoint him again to the post he held between 2006 and 2007.

As president, Dr Ramos-Horta was becoming increasingly frustrated and vocal about what he saw as corruption and inactivity from the Gusmao government.

Dr Ramos-Horta said yesterday that the election demonstrated that he had many supporters. He wanted to join the Democratic Party to help it win the parliamentary election and set up the new government.

"I must work together with them [Democratic Party]," Dr Ramos-Horta said. He wanted "a good political configuration [for] the future of the country". He said the Democratic Party was a party of the future because its supporters were mostly young people.

Mr Lasama said a coalition between his party and Dr Ramos-Horta would be strong. "Big brother Ramos-Horta will go with his younger brothers [in the Democratic Party] to prepare to meet the parliamentary election and the formation of a... constitutional Government of the Republic Democratic of Timor-Leste," he said.

East Timor's presidential poll advances the democratic process

ABC Radio Australia - March 20, 2012

Commentator Joao Saldanha from the Timor Institute of Development in Dili has started the Republican party to run in East Timor's parliamentary elections in June.

Presenter: Sen Lam

Speaker: Dr Joao Saldanha, commentator from the Timor Institute of Development, Dili

Dr Saldanha: Well, one of the main reasons was that he didn't get the support of the CNRT of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. But even without that support, he got to number three, and garnered about 78-thousand votes by yesterday. Actually, that's not bad at all. If his campaign had been a bit livelier, more vigorous, he could probably have got to number two, I believe. But he chose a low-key campaign, it was mostly door-to-door, then he lost to a key political ally.

Lam: So can you tell us more about the second round of this presidential election, next month, in April?

Dr Saldanha: If you look at the 2008, which is the 2012 results, the results kinda mirrored the 2008 poll. Francisco Lu Olo Gutteres, get the hierarchical support of Fretilin, which was 29 percent or so in 2007. For Taur Matan Ruak, he kind of came from behind, but he got the support of CNRT, which is 25 percent. Now the question is, whether either candidate can woo Dr Ramos-Horta's support, or D'Araujo's support or other candidate's support – that way, to win the second round. It's quite relative, but both have different strengths and different weaknesses. To the extent of the President, of course Jose Ramos-Horta did his job pretty well. The issue with Taur Matan Ruak, is how he will reach out to the western district. Before, some people who may vote against him, so he has to address that issue, even in the election and when if he wins, he still needs to settle that with people. On Lu Olo, he's supported basically by hardcore Fretilin, and whether they will maintain the same forces as in the past, or he has to change his performance. So not do you have to reach out to your bases, but also to reach out to the other people, moving together to solve some problems, regarding the country.

Lam: None of the 12 candidates of course got over 50 percent of the vote that was required for outright win. So might we read into that, that East Timor is still a polarised country, with varied factional interests?

Dr Saldanha: That is a possibility. But I think our electoral laws, for the president and for the parliament, are very generous. In a way that you provide room for everybody, for many people to run. The other one is, our electoral law also is proportional representation, so that also provides room for a lot of political parties to come up. So if we want to have a smaller number of candidates for presidential election, we should do some reform. I don't think it's a polarised society, it just represents the diversity of the East Timorese views.

Lam: Overall, this presidential election has been as a test of East Timorese democracy at work. Do you think it passed with flying colours?

Dr Saldanha: I think whether it's passed the test or not, but if you look into the results, into the way people come and participate, the enthusiasm is there, the candidates are advanced, the number of people who come in to vote, they're all very happy and voting. So I think democracy has been cemented and it's growing. There're people in the east, with typical support of certain candidates, who still think intimidation is a way, but I hope that their numbers will reduce slowly, so that we can get to the point where people choose with their own conscience and choose whoever wins them, and they get accustomed to the way they choose people every five years, go back to the booth and elect a new guy. It's just a normal thing and that will be just fine.

Lam: But you think this entire process has certainly cemented democracy in East Timor and the democratic process?

Dr Saldanha: It's very, very strongly cemented. And we're happy about that, and this is something that East Timorese should be proud of.

East Timor president concedes defeat in election

Associated Press - March 19, 2012

Dili, East Timor – President Jose Ramos Horta, who campaigned tirelessly for East Timor's independence for more than two decades and then went on to help steer the new nation, conceded defeat on Monday after a poor showing in weekend elections.

The official results from the first round of voting will not be announced until Tuesday. But with more than 70 percent of the ballots counted, the Nobel laureate had nowhere near the support needed to advance to an April 21 run-off. The two leading candidates are Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, of the traditionally strong leftist Fretilin party, and former military chief Taur Matan Ruak.

"Congratulations to them," Ramos Horta told reporters in an announcement that could mark the end of his political career. "And also to the people who supported me throughout my mandate." He promised to hand over power peacefully to the winner on May 19.

Ramos Horta spent more than a quarter of a century in exile, tirelessly campaigning for East Timor's independence from brutal Indonesian rule by lobbying governments around the globe. He and his fellow countryman Bishop Carlos Belo were rewarded for their efforts in 1996 with a Nobel Peace Prize.

After the new nation was born in 2002, Ramos Horta served first as foreign minister, then shepherded East Timor through turbulent and often violent times as prime minister. In 2007 he became president. He was wounded in an assassination attempt, but returned quickly to work.

As he cast his ballot Saturday, Ramos Horta told reporters he would "always be a winner." "If I'm re-elected, I win, I have a wooden cross that I have to carry for the next five years in the service of these great people. If I'm not re-elected, I win my personal freedom."

East Timor's transition to democracy has been a rocky one. Its leaders have battled massive poverty, social unrest and bitter disputes between soldiers and police that – just a few years ago – left dozens dead and resulted in widespread looting, arson and gang warfare.

With the future of the tiny nation in doubt, UN and Australian troops were deployed to restore order. If the situation on the ground remains calm, they are scheduled to be out by the year's end.

According to preliminary results from the weekend elections, Guterres took in 28 percent of the vote, Ruak 25 percent and Ramos Horta 17 percent.

Opposition ahead in East Timor election count

Agence France Presse - March 18, 2012

Anwar Faruqi – Early results from East Timor's presidential polls on Sunday showed the opposition Fretilin party's Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres had surged ahead with incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta lagging in third.

A tally broadcast live by the country's electoral commission on state-owned radio and television station RTTL, put Guterres ahead with 28 percent of the 411,353 votes counted so far – around 65 percent of the total votes cast.

Former guerrilla leader Taur Matan Ruak was in second place with 25 percent of the vote, while Nobel Prize-winning incumbent Ramos-Horta, who is seeking another five-year term, was in third place with 18 percent.

In the 2007 presidential elections Ramos-Horta had turned his fortunes around after lagging behind Guterres in the first round but winning through in a run-off with 69 percent of the vote.

Votes were being counted by hand, some in remote areas with poor communications, and results were not due until later in the week, according to election officials.

Ermenegildo Lopes, head of the Bloku Ploklamador whose pro-reform alliance has five places in the 65-seat parliament, said he doubted any candidate would land the knock-out blow needed to avoid a second round of voting.

"Our representatives in the districts indicate that the vote is split. With 12 candidates running it is hard for any one of them to get the more than 50 percent majority constitutionally required for an outright win," he told AFP.

A second round of voting would be held in two weeks' time if no clear winner emerges from Saturday's vote.

Around the country, Timorese people had their eyes glued to their television sets, watching the changing figures. Whether they were shopkeepers selling traditional handicrafts at Tias market, candidates' spokesmen mingling with journalists, or people sitting at the lobby coffee shop of Hotel Timor, the talk was about who would emerge top.

The vote is the first in a series of key events in the poor and chronically unstable country still traumatised by Indonesia's brutal 24-year occupation, which ended with a vote for independence in 1999.

In May, East Timor will celebrate 10 years of independence, which came after three years of UN administration. Then, in June, voters will choose a new government in a general election.

At the end of the year the nation of 1.1 million people bids goodbye to UN forces stationed in the country since 1999.

Saturday's voting was remarkably organised for the poor and chronically unstable country, and the peaceful polling stood in stark contrast to the deadly 2006 pre-election violence, taking East Timor to the brink of civil war.

Ramos-Horta loses bid for second term

Australian Associated Press - March 18, 2012

Jose Ramos-Horta has lost his attempt to win a second term in office, with preliminary results from East Timor's presidential race showing he has failed to win enough support to feature in a second-round run-off election.

But the 40-year veteran of the East Timorese political scene will still have a say in the outcome of the election, with his endorsement expected to have a big influence on which of the top two candidates will ultimately win.

The preliminary results of Saturday's poll already point to a second-round showdown between Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, from the traditionally strong leftist Fretilin party, and the country's former defence forces chief, Taur Matan Ruak.

Mr Ruak, who was set to come away with the lion's share of votes from the first round, had gone into the election with the backing of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor party (CNRT). It was Mr Gusmao's support that also proved crucial to Dr Ramos-Horta's victory in the presidential poll in 2007.

But even before early results from East Timor's 13 electoral districts had come back, the president was indifferent about his likely political demise. "If I'm not elected, I have so many things to do – I have to struggle to choose what to do," he told reporters as he voted in the capital Dili.

Dr Ramos-Horta, who served as the exiled spokesman for the resistance during the 24 years of the Indonesian occupation, was a leading player in the country's path to independence and at the forefront of shaping its democracy in the decade since.

The Nobel Peace Prize laureate was a founder and former member of Fretilin, the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor.

He was the country's first foreign minister before being sworn in as acting prime minister in 2006, replacing Mari Alkatiri, amid unrest that saw East Timor at the brink of civil war and resulted in the deployment of a UN peace-keeping force, as well as a contingent of Australian troops.

The 62-year-old became East Timor's second president in 2007, but was again at the centre of trouble for the young country in 2008 when he survived an assassination attempt.

The vote on Saturday was, however, in stark contrast to elections five years ago that were marred by violence and factional fighting.

"There has not been a single incidence of violence," Dr Ramos-Horta said, indicating he remains firm in his view the country is ready to take charge of its own security ahead of the withdrawal of UN and Australian forces at the end of the year.

The second-round vote will take place on April 21, the result of which will be an indicator in terms of the outcome of the parliamentary elections in mid-June.

East Timor votes in test for young nation

Agence France Presse - March 17, 2012

Anwar Faruqi – East Timor voted Saturday in the country's second presidential election as a free nation, seen as a key test for a young democracy taking charge of its own security as UN forces prepare to leave.

Polling began in the morning and ended at 3 pm (0600 GMT) with no unrest reported in a contest that pits the Nobel Prize-winning incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta against 11 other hopefuls.

Voting was remarkably organised for a poor and chronically unstable country still traumatised by Indonesia's brutal 24-year occupation, which ended with a vote for independence in 1999.

"Everything was orderly and well, smooth and without irregularities or an atmosphere of intimidation," Jamie Gonclaves, a poll station worker, told AFP.

Polling was also markedly peaceful, standing in stark contrast to the deadly pre-election violence that erupted in 2006, which left the country on the brink of civil war.

"There has not been a single incidence of violence, so that's great for the country," Ramos-Horta said after voting in the capital Dili, with coffee- brown ink on his index finger indicating he had exercised his democratic right.

A large turnout was reported nationwide, with some stations having to dip into reserve ballots, election officials said.

At a school house in the village of Balibar, in the cool hills overlooking the capital Dili, voters trickled in about an hour after polls opened at 7 am (2200 GMT Friday), some carrying babies or toddlers and many barefoot.

The vote marks the country's second presidential election as a free nation and is the first in a series of key events in a pivotal period for the country.

In May, East Timor will celebrate 10 years of independence, which came after three years of UN administration. Then, in June, voters will choose a new government in a general election.

At the end of the year the nation of 1.1 million people bids goodbye to UN forces stationed in the country since 1999.

Among East Timor's many problems is its heavy reliance on energy reserves, which account for around 90 percent of state revenues. The International Monetary Fund calls it the "most oil-dependent economy in the world".

"It is an obligation for every citizen to vote because this is a democracy and we have the right to choose our own leaders," said Sidonia Perreira, a government clerk who walked to the school house with his wife and two small children.

Constitutionally, the presidency is largely a ceremonial role, but its profile has been boosted by Ramos-Horta, who shared the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to resolve the independence conflict.

The popular 62-year-old, who survived a 2008 assassination attempt, is the second post-independence president after Xanana Gusmao – a former anti- Indonesia rebel leader who is now prime minister.

The race for the presidency is largely a three-way contest between Ramos- Horta, the Fretilin party's Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres and former armed forces chief Taur Matan Ruak, a guerrilla leader during the occupation.

Candidates must garner more than 50 percent of the vote for an outright win, otherwise a run-off will be held in coming weeks.

"There will be no second round. I am confident I will win today," Ruak told reporters shortly after voting at a Dili school crowded with voters, journalists, international observers and a stray dog nursing puppies.

Ramos-Horta won in a second-round of voting against Guterres in 2007, buoyed by the support of Gusmao's Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor (CNRT) party.

But this time the party is backing Ruak. Ramos-Horta has been increasingly critical of Gusmao's government, but he said he was not displeased with the prime minister's decision to back his rival.

"I'm very happy he's supporting one of my favourite candidates. If someone supports (Ruak) I'm happy because I admire (Ruak)," he told reporters after voting.

Formal results from Saturday's vote are not expected until early next week. International observers and representatives from Australia, the European Union and Portuguese-speaking nations were monitoring the polls.

East Timor kicks off presidential election

Reuters - March 17, 2012

Tito Belo, Dili – East Timor kicked off a peaceful presidential election on Saturday, a critical test to whether Asia's youngest and poorest country can maintain stability and build confidence to develop the economy.

Streets in the capital Dili were almost empty and businesses largely closed as voters walked to polling stations in drizzle in a contest pitting incumbent and Nobel Peace prize laureate Jose Ramos-Horta against 11 challengers. Hundreds queued up before polling stations opened.

Analysts predicted a close finish, with Ramos-Horta facing a battle from four leading rivals to stay in office in East Timor, the eastern half of an island at the eastern end of the vast Indonesian archipelago.

The president plays little role in policy but is vital in projecting stability in East Timor, which has vast offshore gas reserves but is having difficulty unlocking its wealth.

The reserves are the object of a dispute with Australia's Woodside Petroleum, which heads a consortium of firms developing the Greater Sunrise project gas field. It wants to use a floating LNG plant, while East Timor wants the plant built on shore to create more jobs.

The national election commission was due to announce provisional results late on Saturday, but delays in returns from outlying districts could delay the announcement until Sunday. Official results are to be announced a week after the election.

Two contenders favoured for run-off

Two candidates – Francisco Guterres from the main opposition party Fretilin and Jose Maria de Vasconcelos, the former army chief and guerrilla leader – were seen as standing the best chance of facing each other in a run-off in mid-April.

Two others, Deputy Prime Minister Jose Luis Guterres and Fernando de Araujoof the Democratic Party, could also go through.

Fretilin's Gutteres was optimistic about his second round chances. His party won the most votes in the 2007 parliamentary poll, punctuated by bouts of violence.

"As a candidate, I am confident that I will win the majority of the vote," he told reporters after casting his ballot in a primary school. Vasconcelos, who resigned from his military position to run for president, is known as Taur Matan Ruak.

On the eve of the vote, he stressed his credentials as a guerrilla chief during the long process of winning independence. East Timor, a former Portuguese colony, became independent in 2002 after nearly two decades of being under Indonesian control.

Ramos-Horta, who survived an assassination attempt in 2008 and shared the Nobel prize in 1996 for his role in resolving years of deadlock, also told voters he would "continue my success that I have achieved now, which is peace".

For many voters, economic issues are fundamental, as 41 percent of East Timor's 1.2 million people live below $0.88 a day, according to a World Bank report, and malnutrition is a significant public health issue.

"The elected president needs to understand the needs of the poor people and create more job opportunities," said Alfredo Marques, 39, a language tutor.

Ramos-Horta on the outer as vote looms

Australian Associated Press - March 15, 2012

Karlis Salna – East Timor's incumbent president, Jose Ramos-Horta, remains nonchalant even though this weekend could mark the beginning of the end for his career as one of the country's most respected and renowned political figures.

East Timorese will vote on Saturday in the first round of presidential elections which will also mark 10 years since one of the world's youngest nations gained independence.

If no candidate scores at least 50 per cent of the vote, a second-round run-off between the top two candidates will be held a fortnight later.

Mr Ramos-Horta, a former prime minister and one of three front-runners in the 2012 presidential poll, has been a key player in both East Timor's path to independence during a brutal 24-year occupation at the hands of Indonesia, as well as its democratic trajectory since.

But it is becoming increasingly likely the Nobel Peace Prize winner will bow out of the race this weekend, with observers on the ground suggesting the poll is shaping up as a contest between Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, from the traditionally strong leftist Fretelin party, and the country's former defence forces chief Taur Matan Ruak.

In 2007, it was the endorsement of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor party (CNRT) which saw Mr Ramos-Horta win the run-off with 69 per cent of the vote, after having trailed Mr Guterres in the first round.

Prime Minister Gusmao and CNRT, however, have since shifted their support to Mr Ruak, delivering a blow to Mr Ramos-Horta and his chances of re- election.

Even so, the 40-year veteran of the East Timorese political scene, who served as the exiled spokesman for the resistance during the years of the Indonesian occupation, appears at peace. "I don't feel one way or another," Mr Ramos-Horta told AAP of his chances during what has been a deliberately low-key campaign.

Mr Ramos-Horta has previously suggested that his desire to run again had waned. Before he announced his candidacy in January, he had said he was "almost determined not to seek a second term". "I feel that I'm confident enough about the country, the way it is and how it's going that I can say it doesn't need me," he said at the time.

He finally threw his hat into the ring in January after meeting 2000 supporters from East Timor's 13 electoral districts. They presented him with a petition that Mr Ramos-Horta's office said carried the signatures of more than 100,000 people pleading for him to stand for re-election.

Even so, he faces an uphill battle in overcoming the campaigning power of Fretelin and CNRT in a poll which is also seen as a key pointer to the outcome of parliamentary elections in mid-June.

East Timor's economy, although largely driven by oil revenue, has maintained average growth of close to 10 per cent over the past five years under the Gusmao government. A petroleum fund set up to manage oil revenues was as of September last year valued at more than $8 billion.

According to analysts, the country's improved stability will help shore up support for CNRT and in turn for Mr Ruak, meaning fewer votes for Mr Ramos-Horta.

However, the main opposition party Fretelin maintains that many East Timorese have been left behind, with Mr Guterres saying the government had "roundly failed" to provide for the basic needs and demands of the people. "The economy (apart from oil) is not productive and the lives of the people in every aspect are turning more difficult," he said.

One issue upon which all three leading candidates agree is that East Timor must avoid returning to the violence and factional fighting which took the country to the brink of civil war in 2006, and which marred elections in 2007 and led to assassination attempts on Mr Ramos-Horta and Mr Gusmao in 2008.

All three candidates also share the view that the contingent of just under 1000 United Nations security personnel and some 400 Australian troops, deployed in the wake of the 2006 unrest, must leave East Timor by the end of the year.

Stooge row in East Timor election

Sydney Morning Herald - March 8, 2012

Michael Bachelard – East Timor's presidential election race is heating up, with the Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres accusing one of his main rivals of being a "cat's paw" of the government.

Mr Guterres has accused his opponent, former army commander Taur Matan Ruak, of doing the bidding of the Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmao. But Mr Ruak's spokesman said the former major-general and independent candidate "will not be played around by any leader".

There are 12 candidates in the election, due on March 17, but it is likely to be won by Mr Ruak, Mr Guterres or the incumbent, Jose Ramos-Horta.

Campaigning will pause today for the state funeral of Francisco Xavier do Amaral, who died on Tuesday after a long battle with cancer. Mr Xavier do Amaral was considered East Timor's first president after he unilaterally declared independence from Portugal in 1975 before his country was swamped nine days later by Indonesian troops.

It should be a brief hiatus in an increasingly determined battle for the presidency of the impoverished nation of 1.1 million people. The race has so far been peaceful, unlike the 2007 campaign, which was marred by widespread violence.

However, AAP reported yesterday witnesses suggesting that some of Mr Ruak's supporters were illegally wearing their army uniforms on the hustings, perhaps in an attempt to intimidate voters.

Mr Ruak has gained widespread popular support during the race, but has attracted the ire of East Timor's opposition party, former resistance group Fretilin, which last year unsuccessfully courted him as a candidate.

Mr Guterres told The Age that Mr Ruak was being used by the Prime Minister "to break down Fretilin's power and therefore its ability to return to government, by being their foil". Asked if he was suggesting Mr Ruak was Mr Gusmao's cat's paw, he said, "Precisely."

If the election is conducted fairly and without violence, it is likely that the United Nations police contingent force and Australian and New Zealand army personnel will withdraw from a country they helped secure after widespread violence in 2006.

Presidential election concerns drive foreigners out of East Timor

Jakarta Post - March 8, 2012

Yemris Fointuna, Kupang – A number of foreigners, mostly wives of diplomats, have been reportedly flowing out of East Timor due to safety concerns ahead of the March 17 presidential election, Indonesian ambassador to Dili, Eddy Setiabudhi, said on Thursday.

"They are concerned with the situation there both before and after the presidential election," he told reporters on the sidelines of an East Timor-Indonesia border coordination meeting in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).

"The wives are taking leave to return to their home countries. They will return if the election goes smoothly."

Attending the meeting were NTT Vice Governor Esthon Foenay, 161 Wirasakti Regional Military Command chief Col. Edison Napitupulu and a number of other military officers.

The concerns, Eddy said, were based on the experience of the previous presidential election when President Ramos Horta was nearly killed in an incident. "They are also worried that clashes some time ago between soldiers and policemen at Dili Hospital, which caused two people to be injured, could happen again," he said.

The latest incidents took place on Feb. 20 when Molotov cocktails were thrown into the offices of the National Election Commission (CNE) and the Technical Secretariat for the Administrations of Election (STAE). There were no casualties in the latest incidents.

The coordination meeting discussed the possibility that the election would end in riots and also discussed strategies to evacuate Indonesians from the former 27th province.

"If it is chaotic, the Indonesian Embassy has prepared a number of evacuation points for Indonesians, such as through Pertamina in Dili as well as in other locations in every district," Eddy said.

"If evacuation is to be conducted through sea, Pertamina's wharf in Dili is a good place for evacuation. Another location is the airport, if the evacuation is going to be carried out using the Air Force's Hercules airplanes."

The Dili-Kupang sea evacuation route can be covered in eight to nine hours.

Eddy also revealed that registered Indonesians in East Timor included 5,774 adults, 859 toddlers, 14 midwives and 493 people who married to foreigners. Another 400 Indonesians had yet to register themselves to the embassy, he said.

"We have prepared contact numbers should the situation become worse." Esthon said the provincial administration was closely monitoring the situation in the neighboring country. The provincial administration expects the Foreign Ministry to prepare a team in Kupang so that we can evaluate the emergency situation faster," he said.

Meanwhile, Col. Edison said so far border security was conducted using standard operation procedures without special precautions. (nvn)

Reports of voter intimidation in East Timor

Sky News - March 7, 2012

Concerns have been raised about possible intimidation of voters in a number of electoral districts in East Timor by members of the military loyal to their former chief and presidential hopeful Taur Matan Ruak.

East Timorese will vote on March 17 in what will be just the second free presidential election in the tiny country since it gained independence a decade ago. Despite leading candidates, including incumbent president Jose Ramos-Horta, having downplayed the risk of a repeat of the violence which marred elections in 2007, observers on the ground have voiced fears about the potential for unrest.

"I am completely reassured about security," Dr Ramos-Horta said told AAP. "Our police and the United Nations police are alert all over the country. They have tremendous experience over the years in assessing the situation, in pre-empting any security threats so I am very confident it will be okay."

But in a concerning development, witnesses have reported seeing serving members of the military directly involved in the campaign of Mr Ruak, affectionately known as TMR, who resigned as chief of the armed forces in 2011.

Soldiers were witnessed at his election campaign launch in Dili last week, and have since been seen districts outside the capital supporting Mr Ruak, including in Baucau, one of the electorates seen as crucial to winning the presidency.

The direct involvement of serving soldiers in election campaigns is strictly prohibited in East Timor.

There have also been reports that soldiers, in uniform, have been handing out election paraphernalia in support of Mr Ruak in the district of Same on East Timor's south coast. Witnesses also reported that the soldiers were armed, and had arrived in vehicles belonging to the F-FDTL (East Timorese armed forces).

The presidential race is largely seen as a contest between three candidates: Mr Ruak, who has the support of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's Reconstruction of East Timor (CNRT) party, Dr Ramos-Horta and FRETILIN's Francisco Guterres.

The chief of the F-FDTL, Major-General Lere Anan Timur, warned last month that members of the armed forces while free to express their support by voting should not be directly involved in assisting election campaigns.

He said it was a serious offence and that measures would be taken if members of the F-FDTL were found to be directly assisting the campaigns of any of the candidates.

Violence in East Timor saw it on the brink of civil war in 2006 while unrest flared again in 2007, followed by assassination attempts against Dr Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Gusmao in 2008. The violence in 2006 lead to the deployment of international forces including about 400 Australian troops.

Along with a contingent of just under 1000 United Nations security personnel, they are scheduled to withdraw following parliamentary elections which will be held in June.

East Timor 'must resist return to violence'

Australian Associated Press - March 6, 2012

Karlis Salna – Former guerilla commander Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres has warned ahead of East Timor's upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections that the young country must resist returning to the violence of its recent past.

East Timor will mark 10 years since independence when it holds just its second free presidential election on March 17, in the wake of near-civil war in 2006 and further unrest ahead of the 2007 polls.

While there are 12 candidates for president, it is increasingly looking like a three-horse race between Guterres, the incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta and Taur Matan Ruak, who resigned last year as East Timor's armed forces chief.

However, in a crucial move, and one very damaging to Ramos-Horta's prospects of being returned to office, the National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor party (CNRT) of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao has thrown its support behind Ruak, more affectionately known as TMR.

Their support of Ramos-Horta in 2007 was seen as key to his victory. Some observers have suggested that CNRT's support for TMR is more about heading off Guterres, and thus delivering Gusmao another term as prime minister.

Guterres, who narrowly lost in the 2007 presidential race to Ramos-Horta, represents Fretilin, the party synonymous with the resistance movement during Indonesia's 24-year occupation of East Timor. But he maintains that Fretilin, despite its obvious links to the resistance movement, is now a different beast.

"I and my party are committed to non-violence and we've demonstrated that from the beginning of this campaign," he told AAP in Dili in his first interview since launching his latest tilt at the presidency.

But he conceded 2012 looms as a crucial test for the country, acknowledging both the presidential poll and parliamentary elections to be held in mid- June will be closely watched across the region and the world.

"People still have fresh in their minds what happened in 2006/2007, the crisis. And they fear that occurring again.

"But that occurred in another context. Now there is no Reinado," he added, referring to the rebel army major who was regarded as a key player in the violence that erupted in East Timor in 2006. "The situation today is totally different."

Guterres, who has also remodelled himself and is about to earn a law degree, said it was his firm belief that it was the "aspiration of all of the people of Timor-Leste that we have a stable and peaceful Timor-Leste".

Such an outcome, he said, was crucial for the future development of the country. "Naturally, nobody wants to invest in a place that's unstable, where there is conflict."

East Timor's economy grew on average by 9.9 per cent between 2007 and 2010, but that success is overwhelmingly driven by oil revenues. A petroleum fund set up to manage oil revenues was as of September last year valued at more than $8 billion.

But the country remains plagued by problems such as a low skills base and weak public governance, a disaffected youth and an unemployment rate of more than 20 per cent.

The presidential poll is also seen as a key indicator in terms of the outcome of the June parliamentary elections, which will basically be a contest between CNRT and Fretilin.

"We're still building a state, we're still strengthening a state, but we also have to provide for the basic needs and demands of our people," Guterres said. In this regard, he added, Prime Minister Gusmao's government had failed.

"In five years of government, nearly $5 billion has been spent for a small country of just over 1.2 million people. But the economy is not productive and the lives of the people in every aspect are turning more difficult."

He said that for the most part there had been no improvement in infrastructure. "There is now less access to water and sanitation; public health, education and schools are all going backwards." "This signifies failure."

East Timor's Ramos-Horta loses key election support

Agence France Presse - March 1, 2012

Ted McDonnell – President Jose Ramos-Horta's bid for reelection in East Timor suffered a blow Thursday when a key political party said it would back his opponent.

Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's CNRT party, which championed Ramos-Horta's win in 2007, has shifted its support to the former military head Taur Matan Ruak for the March 17 election in one of the world's newest nations.

The poll marks the tiny half-island nation's second free presidential election as it celebrates 10 years of independence. The last elections were marred by violence.

"From now onwards, the official political support from CNRT party is to Mr Taur Matan Ruak. This is what we all here have decided," CNRT General Secretary Dionisio Babo Soares told AFP.

The CNRT declined to say why it was no longer supporting Ramos-Horta. But he has repeatedly accused the party of corruption and nepotism, straining his relationship with the prime minister.

Ramos-Horta, who would not comment on CNRT's decision, has just returned from speaking at the United Nations Security Council in New York where he hailed changes in the country since deadly unrest in 2006 forced him to appeal for a UN peacekeeping force to be sent.

Peacekeepers plan to withdraw by the year-end providing the March poll and legislative elections in June run smoothly.

Ruak resigned last year from the military to contest the presidency and is considered one of four frontrunners in the race of 13 candidates. Like Ramos-Horta, Ruak is a popular veteran of East Timor's resistance struggle against Indonesia's brutal 24-year occupation that took around 200,000 Timorese lives.

Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, is still likely to garner a fair share of the votes, analysts say, but stands to lose throngs of loyal CNRT supporters.

"For the most part, voters tend to be fairly party loyal. If CNRT says vote for this candidate, their followers will generally do so," Damien Kingsbury from Melbourne-based Deakin University said.

While no political polling exists in East Timor, analysts say CNRT's coalition government has significant support after improving stability and economic growth, rolling out electrification and eradicating starvation during its five-year term.

Ramos-Horta announced his candidacy in late January, promising peace as the nation recovers from rioting and factional fighting that left the country on the brink of civil war in 2006. Violence also broke out ahead of the 2007 elections and assassination attempts were made on Ramos-Horta and Gusmao in 2008.

Malnutrition and a dependence on depleting oil reserves to fuel the economy still plague the nation of around 1.1 million, which is one of the poorest in the world.

Graft & corruption

East Timor suspends justice minister

Agence France Presse - March 21, 2012

Dili – East Timor's parliament has suspended the country's justice minister after a court summoned her to face charges of corruption and abuse of power. The suspension comes amid a presidential election in which some candidates have accused the government of rampant graft.

Of the 65 members of parliament, 36 voted in favour of a resolution to suspend Justice Minister Lucia Lobato.

"Parliament suspends the functions of her excellency, the Minister of Justice... according to article 113 of the constitution of the republic," read the resolution obtained by AFP.

The article states that members of the government charged with serious criminal offences must be suspended "so that the proceedings can be pursued".

Ms Lobato, 46, is accused of colluding with a company in a tender to build eight civil registry offices in 2009 worth more than $US1 million ($945,805). A member of her staff is accused of falsifying documents that Ms Lobato signed off on. Ms Lobato was unavailable for comment.

The Dili District Court last week summoned Ms Lobato, a member of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), but postponed the case until her suspension. She is expected to appear before the court on May 23.

PSD vice-president Vidal de Jesus or "Riak Leman" said his party had tried twice to have the resolution passed. "I'm happy because my party is always against corruption and our party is committed to cooperating with the justice system," he said.

Mr De Jesus said it was up to the court to decide whether or not Ms Lobato was guilty, adding that the suspension would "release the party from these kinds of accusations, so the position of the party is to let the court decide".

Ms Lobato is one of six ministers under investigation by the anti- corruption commission.

East Timor, a nation of 1.1 million people which occupies half an island, held the first round of its second presidential election as a free state on Saturday.

Incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta, who lost his bid for re-election, has accused the government – led by Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's National Congress of the Reconstruction of East Timor (CNRT) – of corruption and nepotism.

The second round of voting, which will see two former guerilla fighters vying for the presidency, is expected to take place on April 16.

Poverty & development

East Timor's road: To riches or ruin?

Global Mail - March 19, 2012

Aubrey Belford – East Timor's people are desperately poor but its government is swimming in cash. Is the country buying its way out of poverty, or into economic disaster?

The stretch of road along East Timor's north coast from Dili to Baucau and back is a dramatic, beautiful and terrifying mess. Heading east, the road clings to temperamental, undulating hills. Periodically, it plummets through mangroves and flooded rice fields, and then rises again through forest.

By motorbike in the daytime it's dangerous enough. Every curb holds the threat of a truck-sized pothole, a slick of mud or a deep pool of water. At night, in near total darkness, it becomes an obstacle course of goats, buffaloes, dogs, crabs and people, who suddenly shimmer out of the darkness like apparitions.

Gripping onto the handlebars, your eyeballs darting around for threats, there's small comfort to be gained from one fact: this is one of the country's better roads.

The government of East Timor, one of Asia's poorest countries, says this is all about to change. After years as a neglected Portuguese colony, a warzone under brutal Indonesian occupation, and then an aid-dependent ward of the international community, East Timor is standing on its own.

The country is sitting on a well-performing USD9.3 billion sovereign wealth fund, made up of revenues flowing in from oil and gas in the Timor Gap, and is spending big. The country has budgeted more than USD1.67 billion to spend in 2012, a 28 per cent increase over the year before. The biggest chunk of it is on much-needed roads, electricity and other infrastructure.

The government of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao says all this is part of an ambitious strategy to move the country from deep poverty, growing at or near double digits every year until it reaches a level pegging with some of Southeast Asia's more successful "upper middle income" countries by 2030.

It's also no coincidence that the country has just started a long season of elections – culminating in a parliamentary poll in June. If everything goes smoothly, a United Nations stabilisation mission and about 460 Australian and New Zealand troops should finally leave, after six years on the ground.

The huge surge of cash has appeared, so far, to prevent the country falling into the sort of violence that has threatened to derail it in the recent past. Politics has so far been peaceful, but still it has been raucous. President Jose Ramos-Horta was kicked out of office in the first round presidential voting on Saturday. The second round, later this year, will be a runoff between Francisco Guterres, from the opposition Fretilin Party, and Taur Matan Ruak, a former rebel commander and military chief, who was backed by Gusmao after the prime minister abandoned his earlier alliance with Ramos-Horta.

But as money sloshes into Dili, there also is growing concern that the country is falling into the same trap as legions of impoverished countries before it: too much resource money, far too quickly. Critics say the country is experiencing worrying signs of a wild binge – massive projects rushed through at ballooning costs, millions of dollars disappearing into administrative holes, the rise of a tiny, well-connected elite, and surging prices for everyday goods.

While both sides of politics accuse the other of pandering and waste, foreign analysts mostly agree that everyone in the political class shares part of the blame. And when the binge ends, Australia could end up with another basket case on its doorstep.

"Timor-Leste is in a bubble right now because they've got higher oil revenues, but they're already dropping and they're not going to last that long," says Charles Scheiner, a researcher at La'o Hamutuk, a Timorese watchdog nongovernmental organization (NGO). "And when the bubble breaks that's a very different reality to what's happening at the moment."

With more than 90 per cent of government revenue coming from oil and gas, East Timor is the world's second most resource-dependent country, after the newly independent South Sudan, according to Scheiner. Most of that money is being spent on roads and electricity, in particular a massive national grid that has exploded in cost from an originally planned amount of less than USD400 million to more than double that.

Inflation is 15.4 per cent (and 17.7 per cent in Dili), according to government figures. In 2010, East Timor imported nearly USD288 million in goods, and exported just USD16 million of coffee. Apart from some agricultural products and a smattering of handicrafts, almost nothing on sale is locally produced. Focusing too much on oil and gas, East Timor is also neglecting the future development of other industries, La'o Hamutuk argues.

The group also says East Timor is spending well beyond its means. Even on the most optimistic oil revenue projections – including from the Greater Sunrise field, which is yet to become a reality thanks to a dispute between the Timorese government and Australian company Woodside – East Timor can only afford to spend USD1.88 per person per day over the next 40 years, Scheiner says. Currently, he claims it's spending about double that.

If new sources of petroleum don't come online and the government keeps increasing spending at the same rate, East Timor will be unable to finance its budget in less than a decade, Scheiner argues. And then the problems will really bite. According to Scheiner, projections of double-digit growth are a "pipe dream". Right now, his best rough guess is that only about a hundred well-connected Timorese businessmen and women are making serious money, either in government procurement contracts or lines of business closely linked to servicing them. And the future looks similarly inequitable.

"It's what happens in most countries where you don't have enough resources to go around, rich people get armed guards and build walls around their houses and poor people starve," he says. "It's not a very pretty picture."

The rub is, East Timorese desperately need the money, and, particularly in an election year, they are clamouring for their share.

In the countryside, most people eke out a living in subsistence farming. Throughout the country, about half of all children under five are malnourished and 41 per cent of the population lives on less than the local poverty line of USD 0.88 a day. Much of the infrastructure dates from Portuguese and Indonesian times and is in terrible condition.

In Manatuto, a district on the road east of Dili, the spectacle of a 50- metre stretch of road turned into a knee-deep, watery mire last week showed just how slapdash the flow of money is.

Standing with about two dozen others and watching as motorbikes, trucks full of voters and police four-wheel-drives struggled through the morass, Jorge da Cunha, a 38-year-old local, explained the asphalt was washed away here a year ago. No work had been done until heavy rains came down the night before, threatening to cut off much of the east of the country just when thousands of voters needed to head home to vote. And so an urgent order came from the local government: smash open the retaining wall, and let the water out.

"Our government has a big budget, but there's something wrong with implementing things," he said, taking a break from trying to smash a hole in the wall with a metal rod and a large rock; it's work he says he's doing with others in return for cigarette money. "We've got a big budget but small results."

Further along, in the district's main town, the complaints are the same. By the beach, near the shells of homes torched by pro-Indonesian militia after the 1999 UN-backed referendum that won East Timor its independence, men sit staring out at the sea. Natalino da Costa, a single, 28-year-old man who lives off farming and fishing, says life has barely improved, and work is sporadic.

Since December 2011, electricity has run 24 hours in town, but there has been little other benefit, da Costa says. The price of the fish he sells has stayed static, but the cost of goods at the market – a row of rusty, corrugated tin shanties – has shot up. Except for a few fruits and vegetables, everything – cooking oil, sugar, drinks, rice, candles – is imported, mostly from Indonesia, China and Vietnam. Market vendors here complain that another road from deeper in the countryside has been cut by a landslide, forcing people trying to get vegetables to market to stop on one side, cross the gap by foot, and load goods into waiting trucks and minibuses.

"If you ask me, they're misusing the money," da Costa says. "They're spreading it out but we're not satisfied. They really should be building houses here. That's what the people want."

It's this mix of dissatisfaction and demand that the government says it has to contend with.

Sitting in her office, the finance minister, Emilia Pires, acknowledges the government is spending its money quickly, but she argues that it has no real choice. In 2006, fighting among factions of the security forces killed 37 people, displaced more than 100,000 people, and raised the specter of national collapse. Over the years, the international community kicked in billions of dollars in aid, Pires says, with too few tangible results.

Now, with money to spend, the government is buying stability. Pires can't remember off the top of her head how much the government has spent since taking office in 2007, so she gets on to her computer, looks up national expenditure figures on the government's transparency website, and adds them together using a pen and paper. The figure is about USD3.2 billion – enough, she says, to have already rescued East Timor from becoming a "failed state".

"As a finance person I used to think like that: black and white. It's not black and white. You are managing a country getting out of conflict. Do you realise what that means? Now, when you're giving electricity to the people, people are starting to move on. There'll be more participants in the economy because now anybody in Timbuktu can turn on some thing and start doing their little business," she says.

"So they're not sitting on the beachfront, doing nothing, waiting for someone to make trouble, so they go into trouble mode."

Pires's argument is this: Yes, expenses have blown out, but people are demanding change quickly, and that means paying contractors a premium. And without roads and electricity, no other parts of the economy can develop. She says criticisms of East Timor's oil and gas dependence are overblown – pointing to a draft national account on her desk, as yet unreleased, saying it only makes up 79 per cent of government revenue, as opposed to the more than 90 per cent figure used in La'o Hamutuk's analysis (Pires's says the account is only for 2010 – East Timor is still trying to play catch-up with its books.)

The minister also blames the Fretilin opposition for a big part of the splurge, after it raised objections in parliament to government plans to set up the national grid with second-hand Chinese generators. The cost explosion came when the government was pressured into buying expensive, brand new equipment from Finland.

"Parliament went berserk – mostly the opposition – wanting a brand new thing," she says. "Because they said that the other one is second-hand, nobody likes China, neh neh neh, all that stuff, which we thought was unreasonable but, hey, parliament overrules us."

That argument does not fly with the opposition. East Timor's electricity grid "has been a fucking nightmare. It's been a procurement disaster," says Jose Teixeira, a Fretilin Member of Parliament and adviser to Guterres.

"It's just your classic example of a country that is just so dumfounded full of money that people are just spending it because it's there, without taking the most fundamental bit of care about doing proper feasibility studies or without doing proper procurement, for that matter," he says.

The "resource curse" is a classic trap, and one East Timor was meant to avoid. Since its separation from Indonesia, East Timor has become a laboratory of sorts for the international development industry of NGOs, UN agencies, multilateral institutions and foreign advisers. For a decade, Dili has been a town of cafes and beach bars largely populated by foreigners on pay scales that range from the altruistic to the astronomical.

Putting the petroleum money away in a special sovereign wealth fund, modeled on Norway, has been the international community's favoured cure for the curse. The idea was to grow the money and spend slowly – and avoid corruption, inflation and maladministration.

But since the fund's establishment, East Timor's parliament has continually voted to scoop out far more than the original, conservative speed limit set for yearly withdrawals, only three percent of estimated future petroleum income. In order to get a better return to pay for this spending, parliament amended the law governing the fund last year to allow as much as half the fund to be moved from US dollar government bonds to riskier equities, from an earlier 90-10 split.

The international development world has, for the most part, been surprisingly quiet about the government's profligacy.

The reason for this is a question I ask around town, and I usually get the same answer: in these early days, at least, foreigners don't want to lose their access in a country that is becoming increasingly self-confident as it loses its reliance on foreign aid.

In one of Dili's popular expat cafes, Teixeira simply gestures to a Westerner at the next table, who he calls a "classic example" of a government adviser unwilling to give contrary advice to his employers. "They don't care. You know why they don't care? Because they're getting paid here more than they'd ever get paid in their own countries," Teixeira says.

The country chief of one prominent international NGO, who did not want to be named in order to maintain a good working relationship with the government, tells me a similar thing.

"For foreign advisers there's a symbiotic relationship, or cooptation," he says. And for most international organisations, "I think there's a certain amount of self-censorship here," he says. "To really step outside of that and call it like it is, is really difficult."

It's not that the government and international organisations have completely overlooked the risks that come with spending big on development. The country has recently set up, among other institutions, an anti- corruption commission and an agency for overseeing major infrastructure projects, the National Development Agency, or ADN.

Visiting the agency's office in the dark, winding corridors of Dili's colonial era Palacio do Governo at 8.30 in the morning is a shock: the staff are actually there, and working hard. The director, Samuel Marcal, readily acknowledges East Timor's spending is "lavish" and that millions are disappearing into poorly planned projects or into the hands of shady contractors. He says his office saved the government about USD60 million last year by cancelling dodgy contracts. But, like Pires, he says infrastructure is badly needed, and that much of the cost has come because of the need for emergency repairs, particularly for roads and irrigation washed away by rains in 2010.

Those who say the government is falling victim to the resource curse "are criticising us but they're not thinking critically," he says. "On one [hand] they're saying 'Don't, don't, don't spend the money.' But then they're saying, 'The community is poor, they're lacking this and that.' And [it is] protests like that that force the government to fulfill them."

East Timor's road to development is proving messy, Marcal says. But that's just the way it has to be. "We have to fall down, get up, fall down again," he says. "It's a process and everyone has to understand this."

[Aubrey Belford has also been looking at the political road ahead for East Timor.]

'Impoverished country with a very large bank account'

Sydney Morning Herald - March 10, 2012

Michael Bachelard – East Timor is a long way from realising its dreams of prosperity despite its oil revenue.

Timor Plaza's bleached interiors, glass-sided elevators and fluorescent lights mark it out as the cousin of every shopping mall in almost every city in the world.

But this mall is in Dili, the capital of tiny, impoverished East Timor. It's the first built here and it's a multimillion-dollar statement of faith that this country's future will be more affluent than the present and more stable than the past.

"Our market is the A and B demographic," says Abdul Rozi, Timor Plaza's sales and marketing manager, confidently.

But inside the deserted mall and outside on Dili's streets, signs of an affluent middle class are scarce.

At the nearby street market, poor stallholders eke out a living buying fresh fruit and vegetables from even poorer farmers to sell at a tiny margin to their poor neighbours.

Less than 100 metres from the mall in the other direction is the Comoro River. When it rains, it fills with rapidly running water and dozens of young men wade in waist-deep to snatch the pieces of wood that float past. They sell it to the many who can't afford cooking fuel.

But the very foundations of this country were sunk in hope and dreams, particularly the long-cherished hope that the Indonesians could be defeated and independence won.

Now the hope, against poor soil, difficult geography and a small population, is that East Timor can become prosperous and peaceful and stand on its own in Asia. Timor Plaza notwithstanding, it's a long way from reaching that dream.

Madalena Soares, 50, lives 30 kilometres from the new mall and at the other end of the food chain. She tramps among the flies and noxious fumes of burning rubbish at Dili's dump and picks out the cans and bottles the As and Bs discard. Selling them provides the paltry income of US50" (47") to US60" a day, with which she must try to support her six children.

Emilia Varela is 34 but looks 50. An unmarried orphan, she lives with three widows in a dirt-floor hut, eating corn they grow and earning what money they can make by collecting and selling firewood.

Both women live in the Liquica district, within two hours' drive of the capital on East Timor's potholed roads. They have lost whatever hope they once nurtured that political independence would improve their circumstances.

"During the Indonesian time and now is the same," says Varela. "We are just depending on selling firewood to pay the school fees. We have been suffering since the Indonesian time." "I have no hope," says Soares, as her hook carves through a rubbish pile in search of metal. "We are a small people, we know nobody will look after us."

The United Nations human development report for East Timor shows that it is doing better than many post-conflict, newly-independent countries. Revenue from the nearby oil fields means that, according to the Asian Development Bank's Dili representative, Craig Sugden, the country has "left the most fragile group" of nations and per capita income is an average of $US2500.

But most people have no access to the oil money and without it average incomes are just $US1100 a person, or $US3 a day.

Like Soares and the 40 or so people who join her daily at the dump, about 41 per cent of the country's population live in absolute poverty and 45 per cent of children under five are underweight.

A large chunk of Timor's budget and the loans now flowing from Asian Development Bank and other donors is being spent to build new roads, bridges and power infrastructure to try to increase economic activity and spread the wealth.

The Australian Agency for International Development has a massive program, focusing on building water and sanitation equipment and then training East Timorese to maintain it. But political stability and able government will be a crucial factor – and this is the year for East Timor to prove it's capable.

It will be the 10th anniversary for democracy this year and the birthday will be marked by two elections: one for the president next Saturday and another for a new parliament in June.

Simply to hold two peaceful elections and a constitutional transfer of power would be a big step forward if the small, tight-knit political elite can pull it off. Hopes are high that they can be.

The UN has 2700 security personnel here and the Australian and New Zealand security contingent is 460. They were invited in after the country almost dissolved into civil war in 2006 but they will leave at the request of the Timorese government if the election goes smoothly.

The events of 2006 were a profound shock for the East Timorese, as well as their many sympathisers in Australia, who up until then could blame all the country's woes on Indonesia and its cruel 1975 invasion.

That shock appears to have made a difference. This year, the politics have been as robust as ever but physical violence hasn't played a role.

The 12-way race for president will most likely come down to one of three men: Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin) leader Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres, former army commander Taur Matan Ruak, or the current President, Jose Ramos-Horta.

But the presidency is just the first prize. The winner's biggest task will be to swear in a competent government after the parliamentarians face the polls in June.

That government faces huge challenges. A recent International Crisis Group report described East Timor as "an impoverished country with a very large bank account".

That account has $US9.3 billion invested – East Timor's share of the oil and gas being extracted from the oceans to its south. It supplies 90 per cent of government income, making East Timor more dependent on oil revenue than any other nation. Combined with massive aid spending, the economy has grown 7 or 8 per cent in recent years, up there with the best of Asia.

But the UN says the government's most important task is to build a "non-oil economy".

This carries monumental challenges – bringing health standards to a level where children are no longer malnourished, creating a school curriculum even though there is no common national language and delivering services in a country where the roads are regularly washed away, power infrastructure is sorely lacking and people lack the skills to work productively or populate the public service.

Business leaders say there has been little or nothing done to create a culture of entrepreneurship and the most basic legal framework is still missing.

The East Timor Chamber of Commerce president, Julio Alvaro, says the lack of a land law means business people cannot get finance because they have nothing to offer as collateral to the banks.

Business consultant Etelvino Mousaco is even more direct about the political situation.

"We are concentrating too much on oil and we are totally ignoring tourism and agriculture. We have mountains of black marble, white marble just sitting there in the ground and there are not laws yet in regard to the mining industry," he said.

Another business commentator says that 10 per cent of business costs are being eaten up by corruption. The hand is out at every level, he says.

The international security forces are pulling out of Dili. Eventually they will be followed by the aid community. To thrive, East Timor will need its own economy and middle class. Alvaro says that could be 10 years away – a decade before Timor Plaza has East Timorese customers to buy its aquariums, use its travel agent and fritter away surplus cash in its amusement arcade.

"If the owners [Timorese-Chinese-Australian investor Tony Jape] didn't believe it could happen, why build this building here?" Rozi says.

With so much hope already expended to bring East Timor to this point, what's a little more?

Foreign affairs & trade

Roxon blocks release of East Timor cables

ABC News - March 21, 2012

Matt Peacock – Federal Attorney-General Nicola Roxon has blocked the release of cables about East Timor, despite the fact they are up to 37 years old.

Ms Roxon decided to keep the documents secret on the grounds that opening them up would prejudice Australia's security.

Associate Professor Clinton Fernandes of the University of New South Wales believes the documents are being kept secret because they would reveal Australian complicity in concealing the mass starvation of 100,000 East Timorese.

Professor Fernandes, a former Army intelligence officer who had one of the highest security clearances, requested the documents from the Federal Government.

He told PM the Foreign Affairs Department even demanded secrecy for its reasons for hushing up the documents. "The Attorney-General has gone to water (with) the first whiff of grapeshot," he said.

"She should have exhibited a bit more scepticism about claims on intelligence and national security. She hasn't done that.

"The Attorney-General has signed a certificate withholding even the reasons why they want the material kept secret.

"I wrote to her warning her against the possibility of being dazzled by claims as to sensitivity risk and security. I guess she just accepted whatever advice she was given."

Professor Fernandes says he knows what the documents are about. "The documents relate to cables written by the Australian Embassy in Jakarta back to Department of Foreign Affairs headquarters in Canberra in the late 1970s, and the documents also relate to profiles of Indonesian leaders in the early 1970s," he said.

"The big problem with keeping them classified is that Indonesia has democratised; everything has changed.

"Suharto is not only out of office, he's actually dead. Nobody from that era is likely to be offended to the point where we couldn't do international relations and diplomacy with them."

He speculates the documents are being protected to hide Australian knowledge of the reasons for a massive famine in East Timor after Indonesia invaded.

"There was massive famine, about 100,000 people dying in the space of a year out of a population of 640,000, so one of the largest losses of life relative to total population since the Holocaust," he said.

"This famine occurred as a result – the direct result – of Indonesian military operations.

"Australia, I believe, had knowledge of this and chose to cover it up in order to protect the relationship with the Indonesian dictatorship.

"This would cause embarrassment to Australian diplomats, but it certainly wouldn't harm Australia's national security. I believe embarrassment is really what's being protected here."

History of secrecy

Professor Fernandes says the Department of Foreign Affairs does not have a culture of openness and transparency.

"Unlike in other countries, where materials are automatically brought onto the public record, here we have to ask for them, and if they say no we've got to go to court," he said.

"So it's prohibitively expensive and time consuming, except for those like me who happen to be at a university and can run cases."

And he says there is a long history of the Department of Foreign Affairs concealing documents about Timor and Australia's role there.

"The leaks of intelligence and cables that occurred in the 1970s exposed the fact that national security was being used as an alibi, not as a goal," he said.

"From the '70s, '80s, '90s there's been a long history of deception, and unfortunately what's happened now is that the Attorney-General has allowed the department to once again shield itself.

"Really what ought to happen now is that the Foreign Minister Bob Carr should intervene personally and simply declassify the documents."

Professor Fernandes says Ms Roxon's action are in contrast to statements she made while in opposition.

"In opposition she was talking about the importance of being open, transparent and the need to prevent the government holding on to materials that don't unnecessarily compromise national security," he said.

"The fact is that we don't know what these documents are or whether they will compromise national security because the same Nicola Roxon has signed a certificate preventing us even knowing the reasons."

People

Amaral: Politician who helped lead the struggle to liberate East Timor

The Independent - March 14, 2012

David McKittrick – At the funeral of Francisco Xavier do Amaral the president of East Timor paid handsome tribute to the man he described as "a symbol of unity in our aspiration to independence and freedom, a courageous nationalist with faith in democracy."

President Jose Manuel Ramos-Horta said that "Grandfather Francisco" was a good and brave man, one of the leaders who showed the way in the cause of liberation from Indonesian occupation. The president's speech made no reference to the many years of captivity, humiliation, hardship and exile which Amaral suffered during a difficult life.

In a sense his misfortunes mirrored those which for centuries afflicted East Timor, a south-east Asian speck in the ocean a few hundred miles north of Australia with a population of around a million. Under Portuguese rule for centuries, it suffered from Japanese occupation during the Second World War, when tens of thousands of its people died. After the war it again became a Portuguese colony.

When Portugal pulled out in 1975 Amaral became the first president of an independent "Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste." But his time in office, and the dream of self-rule, lasted for just nine days before the infinitely larger and more powerful Indonesia staged an invasion. At that point Amaral and his colleagues, and many of the local population, took to the hills to stage guerrilla resistance.

Born the son of a local "king" in the mountainous central region of East Timor, he had qualified for the priesthood but instead had become an anti- colonial activist. He founded the Timorese Social Democratic Association (ASDT), which was later renamed the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor, or Fretilin.

Fugitives in the hills, Fretilin split, with Amaral concerned that civilians who had aligned themselves with the fighters were ill-fed and increasingly suffering from illness. Professor Damien Kinsbury, author of an authoritative work on East Timor, explained: "Following Indonesia's intensive military campaign resulting in heavy casualties, Amaral argued in favour of sending civilians back to occupied areas.

"The majority Fretilin view was that civilians should not be separated from the military struggle. Disagreement over strategy reflected a growing rift between Fretilin's moderates and more doctrinaire Marxists. As a result, 'counter-revolutionaries' were purged from the party, with some being executed."

Amaral later explained the condition of the civilians: "They were suffering in the jungle from starvation and all kinds of diseases, and I felt that if they wanted to surrender themselves they should be permitted to do so. But the other group did not agree. According to them, this was a sign of my willingness to surrender."

Despite being branded as a defeatist traitor Amaral escaped execution, but for a year he was held captive under harsh conditions. He was slowly starved and held at times in a hole in the ground and sometimes in a bamboo stockade. Finally, as Indonesian forces closed in, he was abandoned by his one-time colleagues to be captured by the invaders.

Once again his life was spared but he was subjected to humiliating treatment, this time for a quarter of a century. He was taken to Indonesia, where he was put to work as a houseboy serving General Dading Kalbuadi, one of the military leaders of the invasion.

In addition to his domestic chores and tending to the general's horses, he was periodically used by the Indonesians for propaganda purposes. Under orders, he would appear on television urging East Timor to accept Indonesian rule. The regime in East Timor was condemned by the international community as brutal; in 2001 United Nations prosecutors filed indictments accusing Indonesian soldiers and militia of "planned mass murder".

A UN prosecutor said: "Young men aged 16 to 30 who had some education were tied up in pairs. Then they killed 47 out of 55 of them with guns, swords and machetes."

These activities took place in 1999 when, under pressure from the UN and other elements, the Indonesians agreed to a ballot on independence. The vote went strongly in favour of independence. But, according to the CIA, after the vote Indonesian forces waged a large-scale scorched-earth campaign of retribution, killing approximately 1,400 Timorese and turning more than a quarter of a million into refugees. Most of the country's infrastructure, including irrigation systems, water supplies and electricity supplies, was destroyed.

Amaral had meanwhile been released from domestic servitude to live for several years in poverty in a shack in Jakarta. In 2000 he returned to East Timor, once again becoming involved in politics and attempts to rebuild the ravaged country.

He was regarded affectionately as a long-time fighter for independence. In the years that followed he twicestood for the presidency, explaining that his candidacy was based on giving voters a democratic choice. He received 17 and 14 per cent of the vote. He again put his name forward for the presidential election this month, althoughhe had received a cancer diagnosislast year and had become progressively weaker. He eventually pulled out of the campaign.

On his death Francisco Guterres, an old colleague from his days of fighting in the mountains, said of him: "He was a true politician for the people, who fought for justice and freedom all of his life. To this end, in this presidential campaign his platform was democracy and the greater rights of all East Timorese."

[Francisco Xavier do Amaral, politician: born Turiscai, Portuguese Timor 1937; died Dili, East Timor 6 March 2012.]

East Timor's first president, politician and elder statesman

Deaken Speaking - March 7, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – (Unknown) 1937-6 March, 2012. East Timor's first president, for just 9 days ahead of Indonesia's invasion in 1975, Francisco Xavier do Amaral, has died in Dili at the age of 74 of complications caused by advanced cancer.

Do Amaral, affectionately known in East Timor as 'Grandfather', was born in Turiscai in the Mambai-speaking mountainous central region of East Timor. The son of a liurai, or local 'king', he was educated at St Jose Jesuit seminary in Macao where he qualified for the priesthood. However, do Amaral chose instead to work in the Dili Customs House where he became a popular, politically active intellectual. With Nicolau Lobato and current president, Jose Ramos-Horta, on 20 May 1974, do Amaral founded the broad-based anti- colonial Timorese Social Democratic Association (ASDT), at Ramos-Horta's urging becoming its president.

On 11 September 1974, ASDT changed its name to the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin), reflecting the influence of African liberation movements, with do Amaral continuing in a leading role and visiting Mozambique in 1974. Fretilin, like ASDT, was a democratic socialist organisation, but was increasingly influenced by Marxist-oriented students returning from study in Portugal.

Following a brief civil war in August 1975 between Fretilin and the conservative UDT, during which the Portuguese governor withdrew, and in light of increasing Indonesian attacks across the border, East Timor proclaimed independence on 28 November 1975. As amongst Fretilin's best educated and most senior members, do Amaral was appointed as president. Indonesia formally invaded East Timor nine days later, on 7 December.

Do Amaral fled to the mountains with Fretilin troops and civilians but, by 1977, following Indonesia's intensive military campaign resulting heavy casualties, he argued in favour of sending civilians back to occupied areas. The majority Fretilin view was that civilians should not be separated from the military struggle.

Disagreement over strategy reflected a growing rift between Fretilin's moderates and more doctrinaire Marxists. As a result, in September 1977, 'counter-revolutionaries' were purged from the party, with some being executed. As a result of proposing a compromise arrangement with Indonesian forces, do Amaral was stripped of the presidency and imprisoned by Fretilin. Two months later do Amaral was succeeded as president by Nicolau Lobato, who a year later was killed by Indonesian forces near Dili. Lobato was succeeded by current Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

Do Amaral spent a year imprisoned under harsh conditions and, due to Indonesia's military campaign, was constantly moved about. He later claimed that Fretilin dared not execute him, as it had other 'traitors', but that he was slowly starved.

At the height of Indonesia's campaign of 'total encirclement and annihilation', during the battle of Remixio in August 1978, do Amaral was abandoned, being quickly captured by Indonesian forces.

Do Amaral spent the next 22 years in Bali and Jakarta, working in the home of General Dading Kabualdi, who was responsible for East Timor. Then Colonel Kabualdi had ordered the murder of the 'Balibo Five' journalists in October 1975.

Do Amaral was occasionally brought out for propaganda purposes, including being announced as East Timor's deputy governor in 1979. After Xanana Gusmao was captured in 1993, both he and do Amaral were video-taped together calling for an end of resistance to Indonesian rule. Gusmao later said that the intention of acceding to their captors' request was to ensure that Gusmao could stand trial and use that occasion to promote the resistance.

Do Amaral next appeared during Indonesian stage-managed talks in 1993 near Cambridge, which were intended to thwart UN attempts to have the East Timor issue resolved, and again the following year. Do Amaral was released from service by General Kabualdi's children around 1995, moving to a small shack in Jakarta.

With the resignation of President Suharto and Indonesia under economic pressure, it agree to the UN supervised ballot on independence in 1999. Do Amaral returned to East Timor on 4 February 2000. 'Rehabilitated' by Fretilin, in 2001 do Amaral reformed the ASDT as a Fretilin splinter party. ASDT went on to receive strong support from native Mambai speakers in do Amaral's home district of Manufahi.

Acknowledging that he could not win but saying that democracy required more than one candidate, Do Amaral good naturedly stood against Xanana Gusmao in the 2002 presidential elections. Having a strong traditional following, Do Amaral received 17.31 per cent of the vote, mostly from Mambai speakers, with Gusmao taking a compelling 82.69 per cent.

With formal independence in 2002, do Amaral's ASDT supported the Fretilin government but, on 14 March 2005, amidst a growing political crisis, he resigned from parliament citing government failures, breaking his alliance with Fretilin. His resignation was part of a series of events that contributed to a breakdown of public order and, in 2006, civil conflict, the collapse of the government and international intervention led by Australia.

In the subsequent 2007 elections, do Amaral again stood as a presidential candidate, securing over 14% of the vote. In coalition with the smaller Social Democratic Party (PSD), ASDT polled just over 18% in the 2007 parliamentary elections, taking 11 of 65 parliamentary seats.

Since 2007, ASDT has been part of the Xanana Gusmao-led AMP government, with two ministers in the cabinet. Despite the alliance, relations between do Amaral and his party and the Xanana Gusmao-led AMP government were poor. There has been a series of disagreement over allegations of corruption and mismanagement going back and forth between Gusmao and ministers.

As a result of these disputes, in 2010, do Amaral said ASDT would split with the government and join with the opposition Fretilin party at the 2012 elections. Based on the 2007 elections results, with its partner PSD, this alliance would bring a Fretilin-led coalition to within one seat of a parliamentary majority.

Do Amaral was diagnosed with cancer in 2011 and his condition was deteriorating when he re-nominated to contest March 17 presidential elections. The party had begun to fragment upon learning of do Amaral's condition and may struggle without his charismatic leadership. President Ramos-Horta said that ASDT members who had pushed do Amaral to run for the presidency, knowing he was critically ill, had 'no moral integrity'.

East Timor's parliament sat in an emergency meeting last Thursday night (1 March) to remove section (26) of the Electoral Law which stipulated the calling of fresh nominations and a new election date upon the death of a nominated candidate, allowing the 17 March and subsequent elections to proceed as planned.

Fracisco Xavier Do Amaral married Lucia Soares in 1974 but separated soon after. He did not re-marry and had no known surviving family members.

East Timor independence leader dies ahead of election

Agence France Presse - March 7, 2012

East Timor's first and shortest-serving president Francisco Xavier do Amaral died on Tuesday after a long battle with cancer, a presidential spokesman said.

The popular veteran of the nation's resistance struggle against Indonesia's brutal 24-year occupation died aged 74 in a hospital in the capital Dili. He had been one of the candidates in the fledgling nation's March 17 presidential election.

"The nation is mourning the loss of Xavier. He was our party's first president and our first president of the Republic," the spokesman told AFP.

Following a brief civil war in 1975, Amaral declared independence for East Timor, a tiny half island nation that sits around 600 kilometres (370 miles) northwest of Australia's Darwin city. He was appointed president, a position he held only for nine days before neighbouring Indonesia invaded the territory, forcing him to flee to the mountains.

Amaral fought with the guerrillas from the Falantil, the military wing of the Fretilin party, until he was captured by Indonesian troops in 1979 and taken to Indonesia's Bali island, where he was kept under loose house arrest.

"He fought hard for all East Timorese people and will be remembered as a persistent fighter for East Timor's independence and freedom," the spokesman said.

Former guerilla commander and the Fretilin party's presidential candidate Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres said that Amaral served his country throughout his life even when in exile in Indonesia.

"He was a true politician for the people, who fought for the justice and freedom all of his life. To this end, in this presidential campaign his platform was democracy and the greater rights of all East Timorese," he said.

The March 17 presidential election will be the second since the nation was officially recognised as independent in 2002.

Invasion & occupation

Author exposes East Timor 'stolen generation'

Sydney Morning Herald - March 5, 2012

Lindsay Murdoch – They were East Timor's stolen generation. Between 1975 and 1999, about 4000 young and vulnerable Timorese were secretly taken to Indonesia, where some of them were forced to work in slave-like conditions while others were educated and grew up with the families of soldiers, an Australian academic has found.

Little has been known of the fate of the children, some of whom were abducted while others' parents were coerced or deceived into giving them away.

Now Helene van Klinken, who has done extensive research in both Indonesia and East Timor, has published the first detailed account of the practice she says was an example of a "hegemonic power using children in its goal of dominating the subordinate group to which the children belong".

Dr van Klinken says Indonesians removed many of the Timorese children because they did not have children of their own or to work for their families.

"They also wanted to adopt the children of the resistance as a way to punish, weaken and humiliate the enemy," Dr van Klinken says in her book Making them Indonesians, published by Monash University.

Dr van Klinken says dozens of children were taken from Timorese refugee camps in 1999 and put in Indonesian institutions, partly because those responsible knew the children would help them attract donors.

Another motivation was to educate the children to struggle for the future "reintegration" of East Timor, whose people voted for independence in 1999. "But most did not ultimately become collaborators in the East Timor integration project as the Indonesians had hoped," Dr van Klinken says.

Many of the children from Catholic families were raised as Muslims in Indonesia. "The East Timorese were expected to return home and spread Islamic faith among indigenous East Timorese," Dr van Klinken says.

Many children had difficulty studying in Indonesia because of the trauma they had experienced and many suffered from the side effects of malnutrition. But some did succeed.

The adopted son of Indonesian Major-General Kiki Syahnakri became a senior civil servant. Timorese adoptee Toni Taulo became a television actor, Sebastian da Costa became a well-known tennis player and Thomas Americo was the first boxer in Indonesia to compete against an international title holder.

Dr van Klinken reveals that up to 10 East Timorese youths lived at the house of Major-General Zacky Anwar Makarim, a special forces intelligence officer who oversaw the organisation of pro-Indonesian militia in East Timor in 1999, during which they cleaned and did the gardening and guard duty but were not sent to school.

One of them was Hercules Rozario Marcal, who became a notorious gang leader in Jakarta.

Alfredo Reinado, who wept as he was forcibly removed from his mother in East Timor in 1978, became a renegade military officer who was shot dead at the home of East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta in 2008.

In a foreword to the book, Kirsty Sword Gusmao, wife of East Timor Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, says there are many East Timorese families who still "long to meet their missing children" in Indonesia.

Ms Sword Gusmao says she hopes that Timorese taken to Indonesia when they were children realise they are not alone in their experience. "I hope that they will try and search for their families and those who took the children to Indonesia will assist them in their search," she says.

Analysis & opinion

Assessing the numbers in Timor-Leste's elections

The Dili Weekly - March 30, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – Jose Ramos-Horta's decision to support the Democratic Party (PD) in the parliamentary elections has two sets of implications for Timor-Leste's politics. The first and most obvious will be the effect that this has on the outcome of the parliamentary elections and in particular the level of success of PD. The second, less obvious, implication will be for the next, second round of the presidential election, for which Ramos- Horta was unsuccessful.

Assuming that votes for candidates will be translated, more or less, into parliamentary votes, based on Ramos-Horta's support, with his 18% added to PD's 17%, PD can expect to receive around 35% of the vote which, extrapolating from first round presidential figures, is likely to make it Timor-Leste's single largest party and hence in a dominant position to form a majority alliance in parliament.

The difficulty is, however, that while some parties closely extrapolate from presidential to parliamentary results, in the 2007 elections, PD did not. Indeed, the result for PD's candidate, Fernando 'Lasama' de Araujo, of 19% in the 2007 presidential race slumped to 11.3% for PD in the parliamentary vote. There was, then, a very big question over whether PD could retain Lasama's 2012 17% vote for the parliamentary election and, moreover, whether Ramos-Horta's personal vote would hold when he was not a candidate.

If these votes cannot hold, then PD may end up as the junior partner in a parliamentary alliance or, less likely, it may be out of an alliance altogether. If these votes do hold up, then PD may be a, or the, dominant party.

The further question is if, in exchange for his support, Ramos-Horta would want to be appointed as prime minister. Under the Timor-Leste system, ministers can be appointed from outside parliament, with those appointed from within being replaced from their party's electoral list.

Lasama would, however, probably be looking covetously upon the position of prime minister for himself, if adding Ramos-Horta's support to PD was to produce a plurality in the parliament. This would then leave open the option of Ramos-Horta returning to his former position, between 2002-06, as Foreign Minister, which he undertook with considerable success. Having said this, Ramos-Horta may also be satisfied with the work he has done to date for Timor-Leste, spanning some 38 years, and move out of official life.

The question is, however, whether the 18% of the vote that was allocated to Ramos-Horta in the first presidential round would automatically flow to PD, even with Ramos-Horta's endorsement. No doubt much of the vote he received was due to his personal standing as president. But as he will not be standing in the parliamentary election and party loyalties remain strong, it is less than certain that all of his vote will automatically flow to PD.

However, Ramos-Horta's endorsement of PD does give the once student-based party a much stronger chance of doing well in the parliamentary elections and positions it, and Lasama, well for future contests.

More interesting, however, was Ramos-Horta's neutrality over the issue of his successor as president. In this, he has refused to endorse either of the two candidates going through to the second round of the presidential election.

By endorsing PD in the parliamentary elections, however, Ramos-Horta may have more subtly indicated his support for whichever candidate PD chooses to support. At this stage, Lasama has not indicated whether he will throw PD's support behind Fretilin's Lu-Olo or the Xanana Gusmao-back Taur Matan Ruak. Lu-Olo received 28% of the vote which, if it is consistent with 2007, will probably also be reflected in Fretilin's vote in the parliamentary elections. Ruak received 25% of the vote, which could reasonably be allocated to CNRT.

Despite occasional differences, PD enjoyed five years in government as a parliamentary alliance partner with Gusmao's CNRT, with Lasama occupying the position of parliamentary president (speaker or chair) with the support of CNRT founder and later prime minister, Xanana Gusmao. The two are generally understood to have had a close alliance and Lasama will need a strong incentive to beak it.

If Lasama remains neutral – which still might only be a superficial neutrality – much of PD's support can be expected to go to Ruak, given the party's traditional antipathy towards Fretilin. If he supports Ruak, that flow of support would be almost complete and, with Ramos-Horta's support for PD, potentially be enough to create a CNRT-PD government. Having said that, such a government would probably try to pick up extra parliamentary support from minor parties, to increase their buffer over a Fretilin-led opposition.

However, if Lasama was to break with his own political past and endorse Lu-Olo, it is reasonable to expect PD's presidential vote would split. A split vote would favour Lu-Olo, having already secured the support of a couple of minor parties, and potentially be enough to push him over the 50% line.

The question would be, then, where support for Ramos-Horta was allocated. Had Ramos-Horta not indicated any political preference for the parliamentary outcome, it is likely his vote would have been fairly evenly divided between the two candidates.

Added to PD supporters' traditional antipathy towards Fretilin, this would have resulted in Ruak picking up votes to close the gap on Lu-Olo's three per cent lead and, probably, passing it. If, however, Lasama does opt in favour of a particular candidate and most of Ramos-Horta's support follows, this could be expected to be the decisive moment that determines the presidential outcome, either Ruak will carry most of the non-Fretilin vote and be comfortably elected, or the first round non-Fretilin vote will be split, making it a close contest for the presidency.

How the political parties line up on the issue of the presidency will also indicate how the parliamentary election and consequent alliances to form government is likely to unfold.

Brothers in electoral arms in East Timor

Asia Times - March 26, 2012

Anna Powles, Dili – The second round run-off of Timor Leste's presidential elections scheduled for mid-April will pit two heavyweights of the decade- old country's past resistance struggle and signals a shift towards a new era of nationalist politics.

Of the dozen candidates who contested the first round contest on March 17, Fretilin party president Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres and former defense chief Jose Maria Vasconcelos, more commonly known by his nom de guerre Taur Matan Ruak, respectively won 28% and 25% of the vote and are expected to fight a tight second round race.

The electoral demise of incumbent President Jose Ramos Horta, placed third with 17%, has signaled a decisive shift away from the internationalist stance that the Nobel Peace Prize laureate had come to represent in Timorese national politics.

Despite the constitutional limitations of the presidential office, Ramos Horta during his five-year term increasingly became a thorn in the side of the Parliamentary Majority Alliance (AMP) government and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao over matters of accountability and transparency.

Ramos Horta's challenge of Gusmao's management of the state coffers occurred only days prior to Gusmao's announcement that his ruling CNRT party would support Taur Matan Ruak's candidacy. This was a clear betrayal of the carefully crafted image of the international diplomat and former guerrilla leader united at the helm of Timor Leste, also known as East Timor, since achieving independence in 2002.

The souring of relations between the two national icons was not lost on the voting public. Ramos Horta's low-key campaign, in stark contrast to his flamboyant populist image, was perhaps in recognition that the worm was about to turn in Timorese politics.

Both of the second-round presidential candidates represent a renaissance in nationalist politics. Unlike Ramos Horta, who largely avoided partisan politics through an agenda of national reconciliation, consensus and unity, Guterres's and Taur Matan Ruak's grass roots power bases dominate the political landscape.

Guterres is buttressed by Fretilin (Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor), the country's largest political party whose credentials as the past bastion of the Timorese resistance struggle were forged during Indonesia's 24-year occupation. This lineage has imbued a fervent militancy among elements of the party's support base.

Taur Matan Ruak, a former resistance guerrilla leader and more recently chief of the Timorese defense force, has the loyalty and backing of the military. Despite transitioning successfully from a guerrilla force to professional army, the military has remained a stalwart of the past resistance struggle and has often challenged the legal constraints placed upon it following independence, including civilian oversight and a constitutionally limited domestic role.

The resurgence of nationalist politics coincides with the scheduled departure of the United Nations Integrated Mission in Timor Leste and the Australian-led International Stabilization Force. After 10 years of checkered international stewardship, uneven development, a widening wealth gap, and mismanaged expectations, it is little wonder that Timorese political leaders are returning to grass-roots politicking and popular national narratives to build legitimacy.

The second round of the presidential elections will be a contest between resistance pedigrees and traditional versus political power bases. Both Guterres and Taur Matan Ruak have substantial resistance credentials, although the latter has bid to conflate past resistance hierarchies with traditional power structures to gain an upper hand.

Taur Matan Ruak has claimed that Guterres, as his subordinate within the resistance struggle, should not run against him as culturally it would be unacceptable for a "younger brother" (alin) to run against an "older or big brother" (maun or maun bo'ot).

Guterres's campaign platform has consistently reflected Fretilin's ideology of mauberism, an appropriation of the derogatory Portuguese term maubere, referring to ordinary Timorese and embodies the call for the rights of the indigenous population. (Timor Leste was a Portuguese colony from the 16th century until 1975; Indonesia invaded and occupied East Timor later that same year.)

New generation, old traditions

Significantly, neither Guterres nor Taur Matan Ruak are part of the original resistance-related "1975 leadership", thereby signaling on the surface a transition to a new generation of leaders. However, it could be argued that the real contest in April will be between Guterres's Fretilin party and Gusmao, a surviving member of the "1975 leadership".

The exploitation and manipulation of resistance politics, traditional power structures and cultural symbolism reflect a mythologizing of national and historical narratives and, in turn, a new future direction of nation- building. Exploitation of a growing sense of entitlement among disgruntled and disenfranchised groups, including among military veterans, has been critical to winning support at the ballot box.

Whether supporters of the defeated candidate will concede peacefully will be a test of both candidates' ability to manage expectations and commitment to the democratic process. The next five years will also be critical for Timor Leste's economic development, including crucial decisions over how to manage the small country's large but potentially short-lived oil wealth.

Of the two candidates, Guterres has considerably more political experience, serving as Fretilin's president both while in government and in the opposition. Taur Matan Ruak has little experience in the political sphere and during his service as chief of the defense force was viewed as unable to manage internal army disputes, including among petitioners.

Both have stated throughout the campaign that if elected they will not engage in patronage politics or favor any interest groups. It will be difficult, however, for either to maintain full independence from their respective power bases.

Taur Matan Ruak has explicitly stated two campaign policies that focus on the military and veterans. Given their domestic political interests, it is also likely that once in power either candidate would take an even more interventionist stance in regard to domestic issues than Ramos Horta.

With less than a month before the runoff election, the pork-barreling has already begun. Ramos Horta, speaker of the National Parliament and leader of the Democratic Party Fernando Lasama Araujo, who polled a close fourth in the first round race, and Vice Prime Minister Jose Luis "Lu Gu" Guterres, who placed fifth, will prove critical to the success of either candidate.

Rogerio Lobato, a former Fretilin Minister of the Interior, has announced that he will support Guterres, an endorsement which will effectively split the veteran vote Taur Matan Ruak relies on for considerable support. Lasama has indicated that his support will be contingent on his party being rewarded at the parliamentary level.

Jose Luis Guterres, leader of the small Frente Mudansa party, is also likely to give preference to the candidate who offers the greatest political dividends. Coalition politics will therefore reduce the race for the presidency to a jockeying between the minor parties to secure tribute and favor.

Somewhat fittingly, Ramos Horta could yet play the role of king-maker. He has already announced that he will form an alliance with Lasama's Democratic Party, which will create a significant bloc leading into the parliamentary elections scheduled for June.

The move will consolidate approximately 36% of the vote attained by both men in the first presidential round and is reminiscent of the critical support Lasama gave to Ramos Horta in the second round run off of the 2007 elections which catapulted Ramos Horta over Guterres.

Frustrated by the legal limitations of the presidency, it is not surprising that Ramos Horta is considering a return to parliamentary politics. How this new alliance will impact on the presidential race will be determined by what deals Lasama makes to ensure that his party, with its newest and most famous ally, has a significant role in the next coalition government.

[Dr Anna Powles was an adviser to the Timorese Government following the 2006 crisis and is currently based in Timor Leste consulting for a number of international organizations and donors. She is also conducting research for a book on the 2006 crisis and the international stabilization operation. She may be reached at powlesar@gmail.com.]

East Timor elections free and fair as Ramos-Horta bows out

Crikey.com - March 19, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – East Timor incumbent president, Jose Ramos-Horta, has failed in his bid for re-election, with his former key rival, Fretilin's Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres, and former armed forces commander Taur Matan Ruak, who is supported by Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, going through to the second electoral round.

Ramos-Horta had vacillated over whether he would re-contest the presidency throughout 2011 and his decision to run again surprised many. The outcome of the first presidential round, however, has conformed to expectations, reflecting the pull of the major political parties as well as Ramos-Horta's public standing.

With more than two-thirds of the vote counted, "Lu-Olo" was on 28% of the vote, with Taur Matan Ruak on 25%. Ramos-Horta was trailing on 19%, with parliamentary "president" (speaker) Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo one point further behind. Under the East Timorese voting system, the top two candidates now go into a run-off election in mid-April.

The outcome of the April election, to decide who will be East Timor's next president, will be largely determined by the alliances that will be formed between the two candidates and their backing parties and the parties whose candidates were unsuccessful. It is expected that the outcome will be a closer result than the 69% who voted in favour of Ramos-Horta in the last, 2007, elections.

Ramos-Horta's failure to make it into the run-off will be a disappointment to many in the international community, given his long standing and high profile. But both his possible successors should be competent in the largely ceremonial role that he will be vacating, if not yet as well known to outsiders.

The presidential election was run in a peaceful environment and, according to observer reports, produced an outcome that by international standards is free and fair. The election did experience some technical problems, but these were not regarded by observers as sufficient to compromise the integrity of the vote.

The alliances formed for the second round of the presidential election will provide a strong indication of both the likely success and the alliances of groups of parties at the parliamentary polls at the end of June.

Assuming further successful elections, the United Nations and Australian peacekeepers are scheduled to leave East Timor by the end of the year.

East Timor votes: A fragile nation charts an uncertain future

Time - March 19, 2012

Brendan Brady – When residents of Dili voted to elect a new president five years ago, more than a hundred thousand displaced people were scattered about the city in tent camps and gangs of disgruntled youths exorcised their angst in the street. The scene this year reflected a very different mood.

"In the last election, people hurried to go home after they voted because they were concerned there might be trouble," said Florenco Mendes, a 40- year-old father of four, after he voted in the capital city. "This year people feel comfortable to stay afterwards."

Indeed, in Dili on Saturday dozens of people lingered outside a neighborhood polling station to chat and observe the spectacle of their friends and neighbors passing through lines and booths and emerging with an ink-stained finger. Many returned at day's end to observe ballot counting in order to ensure fair play.

The vote follows several years of stability after national crises shook the shallow foundations of East Timor's young democratic government. In 2006, disgruntled soldiers staged a mutiny in the capital that left dozens dead, caused tens and thousands of residents to flee the city and threatened to escalate into civil war. Further violence did not materialize during the 2007 presidential poll but ignited in 2008 when President Jose Ramos-Horta was shot several times in an assassination attempt that he barely survived.

The government hopes the relative tranquility of this year's election will let the country shed the "post-conflict" and "fragile state" suffixes as it reaches its tenth year of self-rule in May. East Timor was ruled by Portugal as a colony from the 16th century to 1975, and then existed as an independent state for less than two weeks before neighboring Indonesia invaded and embarked upon a 24-year campaign of brutal subjugation under which some 180,000 East Timorese – then a quarter of the population - died. When Indonesia's army withdrew, it vindictively laid waste to what little infrastructure East Timor had. The country was administered by the United Nations from 1999 to 2002 and the international body has ever since played a peacekeeping and governance role.

If peace prevails, 1280 UN police, along with a smaller security contingent from Australia, will depart at year's end, leaving East Timor alone in managing its security for the first time since independence. Skepticism remains among East Timorese about the ability of the domestic police force, which is much more experienced at bluntly enforcing order than at gently enforcing laws. Peace is also necessary if East Timor is to be accepted into the main regional political bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a step the government sees as important to diversify the country's foreign relations and boost its international credibility.

The tiny half-island nation has punched above its weight in the international stage in part due to the profile of the incumbent president, Jose Ramos-Horta. He earned a Nobel Peace Prize in 1996 for his decades- long work in exile, lobbying foreign powers to support his country's independence, and in subsequent years was cited as a serious contender for the post of UN Secretary General. The 62-year-old has not been re-elected, however. With most votes counted, the poll was led by Francisco Guterres (better known as "Lu Olo"), the head of Fretelin, a party holding the most seats in parliament, and Jose Maria de Vasconcelos (addressed invariably by his nom de guerre, "Taur Matan Ruak"), who recently retired as chief of the country's armed forces. They will face off next month in a deciding vote because neither secured an outright majority of first-round support.

Both figures had also been liberation leaders – Guterres was head of a political resistance network and Vasconcelos led guerilla fighters hiding out in jungle redoubts. The calm, serious Guterres, 57, won the most votes in the first round of the 2007 presidential election but was soundly defeated in the run-off when other candidates' constituencies swung to Ramos-Horta. The more animated Vasconcelos, 55, who positioned himself during his campaign as a political outsider, was boosted by an endorsement from Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's party, the National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor (CNRT).

The spirit of the liberation movement still resonates strongly for East Timorese. Bonds between candidates and voters often extend back decades. Justo dos Santos, 65, who attended Taur Matan Ruak's last campaign rally in Dili before Saturday's vote, said he fought beside the candidate in guerilla campaigns against the Indonesian army. "Xanana and Taur Matan Ruak led the country in war, and now they should lead the country in peace," he said, referring to the candidate and as well as the current prime minister, Xanana Gusmao, who, until his capture in 1992, preceded Vasconcelos as head of the liberation army.

The country's constitution established the presidency as mostly a ceremonial role, but the outspoken Ramos-Horta molded the post into an influential perch from which to weigh in on the country's domestic and international affairs. The election is also seen as an important staging ground for parliamentary election in June, which should prove a tight contest given the strength of both Gusmao's CNRT and the Fretelin opposition.

Control of the government comes with a deep chest: a sovereign fund holding revenue from sales of offshore oil and gas now stands at around $10 billion, a considerable sum for an impoverished nation of 1.1 million people. The current ruling coalition headed by Gusmao has drawn heavily – alarmingly so, say some critics – from the fund since it took control of the government in 2007. It initiated a popular pension program for the elderly as well as the liberation struggle's veterans. The biggest portion of the pot has gone to infrastructure.

The Prime Minister's vision is to pave the way to development through asphalt and power lines, a plan whose basic outlines are widely supported. But critics contend that roads are perennially being re-built because they are poorly maintained. And Gusmao's marquee electricity project, a 120- megawatt power plant ten kilometers outside of Dili, suffered constant delays and cost-overruns because of poorplanning and dubious craftsmanship by the contracted firm, the ominously named China Nuclear Industry 22nd Construction Company Ltd.

Low spending on social services has also drawn criticism. This year's government budget has allotted approximately the same funds for road construction as education and healthcare services combined. East Timor has one of the highest rates of child malnutrition in the world, and schools lack basic resources such as textbooks, chairs and clean toilets. "If the budget keeps growing but regular people are still drinking dirty water, we can't call that social justice," said Lourdes Alves de Araujo, head of Organizasaun Popular Mulher de Timor, a women's group affiliated with the opposition Fretelin party.

Most concerning, argues the local NGO Lao Hamutuk, is that the country is falling victim to the oil curse. Government spending has generated few jobs or industries, driven inflation above 17% and distracted the government from addressing longer-term problems, says the group. Measured by proportion of the government's budget derived from oil revenues – over 90 percent – East Timor is the world's most oil-dependent country.

Unemployment is already high – at least 20% in urban areas – and could jump within a decade as the country's post-conflict baby boom matures to working age. Apart from modest amounts of coffeesales, East Timor produces nothing for sale. Furthermore, says Damien Kingsbury, a professor of political science at Australia's Deakin University, the country's low skills base, geographical isolation, and high labor costs compared to other countries in the region offer no comparative advantages to attract investment. His conclusion paints a rather grim picture: "There are few options but for Timor-Leste to carefully manage its oil fund and to generate jobs through government spending, such as on roads, etc."

Navigating overwhelming obstacles is nothing new to East Timor, whose very existence as an independent state was long in doubt and whose ability to self-rule was regarded abroad with skepticism in its first years of independence. "When I received [the presidency] in 2007, the country was on the verge of civil war," Ramos-Horta, told TIME in an interview at his residence in Dili a day before the vote. Today, he says, "The country is at peace. People have regained faith in the government."

Race to the top in East Timor

Asia Times - March 13, 2012

Anna Powles, Dili – Timorese voters will go to the polls twice this year to elect the nation's president and parliament for the third time since achieving independence in 2001. The elections, scheduled respectively for March and June, promise to be the most significant to date for Timor Leste, also known as East Timor.

The 2002 elections followed the flush of independence from Indonesian rule, while the 2007 polls were overshadowed by the previous year's political and civil unrest that led to the resignation of then Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri. This year's elections will define the country's direction over the next five years during which the United Nations Integrated Mission to Timor Leste and the Australian-led International Stabilization Force (ISF) will both withdraw and national leaders will face critical development issues.

Until this year, the presidential election was viewed mainly as a precursor to the more important parliamentary vote. However, the appeal of the presidential role is unprecedented among political groups and has attracted a wide pool of candidates. Regarded as a largely ceremonial position, the office has limited executive authority but does serve a critical oversight function to the National Parliament and has the power of final approval over the Prime Minister's appointment.

The incumbent president and presidential nominee, Jose Ramos Horta, has successfully raised the profile of the office and challenged its constitutionally limited reach. To an extent, Ramos Horta has politicized the office, increasing both the symbolic and material power of the president during his five-year tenure. This may, however, ultimately contribute to his downfall at the ballot box at the upcoming poll.

This year's presidential race is among 12 candidates, more than double the number that contested the 2007 poll. Ramos Horta, former defense force chief Jose Maria Vasconcelos (known by his nom de guerre, Taur Matan Ruak, or "Two Sharp Eyes"), and Fretilin party president Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres are the three front runners. Lu Olo won the first round of the 2007 presidential election without a clear majority and Ramos Horta secured the second round with 69% of the vote.

Ramos Horta's low-key campaign retains popular support but was dealt a blow following Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's withdrawal of his CNRT party's endorsement. Ramos Horta is believed to have picked up votes from supporters of the recently deceased candidate Xavier do Amaral, leader of the Social Democratic Association of Timor and one of the nation's founding leaders.

Gusmao and CNRT, the ruling party within the governing coalition, has thrown considerable support behind Taur Matan Ruak and formed a potential super bloc between two leading figures of the resistance struggle against Indonesian rule.

While the Ruak-Gusmao political ticket represents one of the most powerful alliances in post-independence politics, the tense personal history between the two former guerrilla leaders re-emerged during the 2006 crisis and suggests that their political marriage is one of convenience.

The presidential race also has two dark horses. One is the Democratic Party (PD) contender and current president of the National Parliament, Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo, who placed third in the first round of the 2007 presidential elections and endorsed Ramos Horta in the second round run- off, contributing to the latter's successful election.

Lasama has widespread support among the country's youth but internal tensions within PD have weakened his campaign. Lasama's influence will likely prove critical if the presidential election extends to a second round.

The other contender is Rogerio Lobato, the former minister for the interior convicted for the illegal distribution of weapons during the 2006 crisis. Lobato served less than a year of a seven-year prison sentence, flew out of the country courtesy of the Kuwaiti government, which provided a Lear Jet, spent the subsequent years in Malaysia and Portugal, and returned to Timor Leste in 2010. As the former commander of the armed forces in 1975, Lobato draws his support from the veterans in the east of the country.

A lesser known presidential candidate is the current Vice Prime Minister and Frente Mudanca candidate Jose Luis "Lu Gu" Guterres, who is unlikely to poll highly but whose breakaway faction of Fretilin may prove to be a potential king-maker during the parliamentary elections.

Guerilla democracy

The presidential campaign has been a war of ideologies and pedigrees. Highly political and increasingly politicized resistance pedigrees have always played a role in national politics and are proving central to the current presidential race. For instance, Taur Matan Ruak accused Lu Olo, a leading member of the clandestine movement and Taur Matan Ruak's subordinate during the struggle, of challenging resistance power structures by running against him in the presidential race.

The clash between traditional and modern power structures reflects the larger struggle to define Timor Leste as a nation and a people. Former guerrilla leader and chief of the defense force Taur Matan Ruak has close ties with traditional power structures, forged during the resistance struggle and reinforced by his resistance pedigree. Ramos Horta, a diplomat, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and political moderate, represents the modern or post-independence power structures, which receive greater international support.

As a consequence of Taur Matan Ruak's candidacy and Gusmao's support, the presidential election has also placed the Timorese military's history and future at the forefront of the campaign. Despite running as a civilian, Taur Matan Ruak's campaign has utilized images of his military lineage to powerful effect. The former military leader has made it clear that the defense force will play a significant role in the development of the nation, including mandatory military service for Timorese males and females.

Taur Matan Ruak's strength lies in the veteran vote which, although by no means unified, is a dynamic of resistance pedigree politics and holds greater sway in 2012 than it has in past elections. Taur Matan Ruak has consolidated an increasingly powerful faction comprised of veterans, petitioners and renegades around a growing sense of entitlement that is likely to extend to the ballot box. Allegations of voter intimidation, confirmed by the National Election Commission, have involved uniformed and armed members of the national defense force.

Presidential candidates are less known for their policies than their promises and campaign speeches tend towards grand national narratives with considerable rhetoric focused on national reconciliation, an end to corruption, justice and spending or not spending the nation's petroleum revenues.

A recent Asia Foundation report estimated that Timor Leste now collects US$275 million in oil revenue per month and this year's state budget is scheduled to draw some $1.76 billion from a government managed petroleum fund.

What all candidates appear to agree upon is the withdrawal of the UN and ISF by the end of the year. Timor Leste is arguably experiencing a renaissance of self-determination, and the small nation's international friends and neighbors would be wise to consider how to best engage with a stronger and more willful polity.

If none of the candidates wins a clear majority on March 17, a second round of voting will take place in mid-April. The period between the two rounds, during which the distribution of votes and formation of alliances would take place, would likely be particularly contentious and potentially violent. Indeed, the dynamics for violence – and its components – are never far from the surface in Timor Leste's developing democracy.

[Dr Anna Powles was an adviser to the Timorese Government following the 2006 crisis and is currently based in Timor Leste consulting for a number of international organizations and donors. She is also conducting research for a book on the 2006 crisis and the international stabilization operation.]

Presidential elections in Timor-Leste: What's at stake?

Inside Story - March 4, 2012

Michael Leach – Timor-Leste goes to the polls again on 17 March to elect a new president for a five-year term.

While the president's role is largely symbolic, and government is formed at the parliamentary elections in June, the election is important in several respects.

First, it will set in place part of the leadership that will take Timor- Leste beyond more than a decade of major international state-building and security assistance. Both the United Nations policing mission and Australian-led International Stabilisation Force are set to withdraw at the end of 2012, leaving in place a smaller UN political mission and Australia's defence cooperation program.

Though Timor-Leste has been relatively stable since the attack on President Ramos-Horta in early 2008, this transitional period will test the nation's young democracy, its often fractious political elite, and its reformed security institutions.

Thirteen candidates will take to the hustings, including surprise independent entrants Rogerio Lobato, the former interior minister convicted of distributing weapons in the 2006 crisis, and Angelita Pires – the former lover of the major-turned-rebel Alfredo Reinado – acquitted last year of involvement in the attack on Ramos-Horta. With a strong likelihood that no candidate will reach 50 per cent, the top two candidates will run- off in a second election in April.

National political legitimacy remains strongly associated with resistance to the Indonesian occupation from 1975-99. Among the leading contenders, the three wings of the East Timorese independence movement are represented. The current incumbent and mainstay of the diplomatic front, Jose Ramos- Horta, surprised some by renominating late in a competitive field. In a sign of Timor-Leste's own leadership tensions, he does so without the backing of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's CNRT party – the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction – an advantage he enjoyed in 2007. Though the two were once strong political allies, the president has at times been critical of key government decisions, most recently in relation to the size of the 2012 budget requests, in a year that may involve a change of government by July. Lacking major party support, Ramos-Horta's path to re-election is far harder this time around. But he remains more popular with ordinary Timorese than with political elites, and it would be unwise to write off his chances. He will be banking on receiving some party endorsements in the run-off round if he is able to place in the top two.

The FALINTIL military resistance is well represented, with retired defence force commander and former guerrilla leader Taur Matan Ruak up against opposition party Fretilin's candidate Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres. Both are respected "twenty-four-year" veterans of the armed conflict. If either wins, these elections will break the cycle in which three leaders – Xanana Gusmao, Ramos-Horta and Mari Alkatiri – have dominated the positions of prime minister or president since independence. It will also see a shift to the very youngest members of the "1975 generation" of independence movement figures. A fourth candidate, the current president of parliament Fernando "Lasama" Araujo, is a former leader of the less celebrated but influential clandestine resistance, which was dominated by the youth of the 1980s and 1990s. Lasama's respectable third place finish in 2007 is unlikely to be repeated in 2012, partly because another member of his Democratic Party is also running. A more historic shift to a younger generation, raised during the Indonesian occupation, will have to wait until at least 2017.

Though an independent, Taur Matan Ruak's campaign has recently received the formal support of CNRT. Ruak is respected by all the other major parties, has active campaign team members from several, and will attract support among younger East Timorese and those disaffected with current elites. For these reasons, it is likely that CNRT sees mutual benefit in the association. For his part, Lu Olo brings the relatively disciplined vote of the largest party, Fretilin, giving him a strong chance of making the second round.

Now that the formal campaign period has begun, many will be awaiting candidates' policies on the use of president's limited powers. These include the formal appointment of a new government following parliamentary elections. Though bound to appoint the party or alliance with a majority, the new president will play a key role in maintaining national unity during and after the formation of a new government. Unlike the heavily monitored election period itself, the president's role as a national leader is critical to stability at this latter stage, and frequently underrated.

The competitive requirements of presidential campaigning can of course undermine that part of the role. As the leading candidates position themselves during the campaign, there is a risk that issues from 2006 political-military crisis will be dredged up once again. A slightly jarring opening attack from Ruak on the former Fretilin government's role in the crisis highlighted this potential. Ruak himself is not immune: he was the Defence Force commander at the time of a major split in the force, when 600 "petitioners" alleged discrimination against soldiers from the western districts of Timor-Leste. Along with other senior figures from the government and police, he was recommended for prosecution by the UN Commission of Inquiry report into the 2006 crisis – in his case, for distributing arms to civilians – though this was subsequently dropped for lack of evidence and appears to have had little impact on Ruak's popular reputation. How each of the candidates deal with the troublesome legacies of 2006 may influence the wider course of national politics in 2012.

Other presidential powers include a limited veto over legislation, the power to refer legislation for constitutional review, and the power to issue pardons. Ramos-Horta's pardons of former pro-Indonesian militia, and of his own attackers in 2008, has furthered an elite agenda of reconciliation but proved more controversial among a populace seeking justice for past crimes.

Long delayed parliamentary debates will shortly resume over a national reparations law for victims, a national institute of memory, and a follow- up body to oversee progress on Timor-Leste's Truth and Reconciliation Commission recommendations. Less controversial programs have also stalled, including the work of the Australian-Argentinian International Forensic Team, searching for bodies of the disappeared and proposing a low cost Victim Identification Centre. Their short-term funding from the East Timorese government has expired, and currently awaits renewal. The return of this debate to parliament will hopefully encourage presidential candidates to state their positions on these significant issues.

Finally, in a country without opinion polling, the first presidential election offers the best indication of party support for the parliamentary elections to follow. In 2007, party votes broadly mirrored those of their formal or unofficial presidential candidates. The March election will be keenly watched for signs of how party support has shifted, and the run-off in April may indicate how smaller parties will lean in future parliamentary coalition negotiations, in the form of endorsements for the final two candidates.

Sadly for domestic and international commentators, this presidential election is unlikely to prove quite as reliable a poll guide as 2007, with both Ruak and Ramos-Horta likely to draw cross-party support, and at least one significant party, the Social Democratic Party, not fielding a candidate. Much will depend on who the third and fourth placed candidates support once eliminated from the ballot. Ruak's team has every right to consider him a frontrunner in 2012, but he is up against a giant of national politics and a third candidate whose tight support may allow just one other to progress to the run-off. Even if unsuccessful in 2012, Ruak may be offered the defence ministry, preserving his talents and profile as a key player to watch for the future.

What Ramos-Horta does next if unsuccessful will be closely watched. While any new government would find him hard to overlook as foreign minister, there is every chance he may instead look abroad at other senior opportunities, marking the first departure of a key historic leader from the national stage.

East Timor News Digest 3 – March 1-31, 2012

Australia says troops could soon leave East Timor

Associated Press - March 19, 2012

UN forces ready as back-up in East Timor election

Agence France Presse - March 16, 2012

Australian troops must leave: Ramos-Horta

Australian Associated Press - March 7, 2012

Forgotten victims of East Timor's invasion demand to be heard

Sydney Morning Herald - March 12, 2012

Democratic progress: East Timor election proves peaceful

Christian Science Monitor - March 27, 2012

[Editor's note: A quotation was removed from the story because it violated the terms of the interview.]

Too little, too late for Ramos-Horta

Straits Times - March 21, 2012

Ramos-Horta seeks new alliance in bid for leadership role

Sydney Morning Herald - March 21, 2012

East Timor's presidential poll advances the democratic process

ABC Radio Australia - March 20, 2012

East Timor president concedes defeat in election

Associated Press - March 19, 2012

Opposition ahead in East Timor election count

Agence France Presse - March 18, 2012

Ramos-Horta loses bid for second term

Australian Associated Press - March 18, 2012

East Timor votes in test for young nation

Agence France Presse - March 17, 2012

East Timor kicks off presidential election

Reuters - March 17, 2012

Two contenders favoured for run-off

Ramos-Horta on the outer as vote looms

Australian Associated Press - March 15, 2012

Stooge row in East Timor election

Sydney Morning Herald - March 8, 2012

Presidential election concerns drive foreigners out of East Timor

Jakarta Post - March 8, 2012

Reports of voter intimidation in East Timor

Sky News - March 7, 2012

East Timor 'must resist return to violence'

Australian Associated Press - March 6, 2012

East Timor's Ramos-Horta loses key election support

Agence France Presse - March 1, 2012

East Timor suspends justice minister

Agence France Presse - March 21, 2012

East Timor's road: To riches or ruin?

Global Mail - March 19, 2012

[Aubrey Belford has also been looking at the political road ahead for East Timor.]

'Impoverished country with a very large bank account'

Sydney Morning Herald - March 10, 2012

Roxon blocks release of East Timor cables

ABC News - March 21, 2012

Amaral: Politician who helped lead the struggle to liberate East Timor

The Independent - March 14, 2012

[Francisco Xavier do Amaral, politician: born Turiscai, Portuguese Timor 1937; died Dili, East Timor 6 March 2012.]

East Timor's first president, politician and elder statesman

Deaken Speaking - March 7, 2012

East Timor independence leader dies ahead of election

Agence France Presse - March 7, 2012

Author exposes East Timor 'stolen generation'

Sydney Morning Herald - March 5, 2012

Assessing the numbers in Timor-Leste's elections

The Dili Weekly - March 30, 2012

Brothers in electoral arms in East Timor

Asia Times - March 26, 2012

New generation, old traditions

East Timor elections free and fair as Ramos-Horta bows out

Crikey.com - March 19, 2012

East Timor votes: A fragile nation charts an uncertain future

Time - March 19, 2012

Race to the top in East Timor

Asia Times - March 13, 2012

Guerilla democracy

[Dr Anna Powles was an adviser to the Timorese Government following the 2006 crisis and is currently based in Timor Leste consulting for a number of international organizations and donors. She is also conducting research for a book on the 2006 crisis and the international stabilization operation.]

Presidential elections in Timor-Leste: What's at stake?

Inside Story - March 4, 2012

[Michael Leach is Associate Professor in Politics and Public Policy at Swinburne University of Technology.]