Rory Callinan – East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta has been forced to fend off allegations that he is trying to avoid media scrutiny before the upcoming presidential elections by refusing to pay an outstanding debt to a corruption-busting newspaper.

The allegations have been made by prominent local journalist Jose Belo, who has previously come under fire from the government over his scoops exposing everything from suspicious government contracts to a substantial deal to make a former Miss Australia tourism ambassador for East Timor.

Last year Mr Ramos-Horta asked Belo to publish extra copies of the newspaper Tempo Semanal and distribute them to rural communities and schools. Belo now alleges the Nobel prize-winning President has since declined to pay the $US93,523 ($A87,500) printing and distribution costs for the extra editions – which has crippled the newspaper and resulted in publication being halted.

Mr Ramos-Horta yesterday denied the claims and told The Age that Belo failed to provide proof the money had been spent distributing the papers. He also said Belo had left his job at Tempo and become involved with the campaign of presidential rival and army chief Taur Matan Ruak.

Tempo Semanal, which also has a website, was established by Belo in 2006 and has received some funding from Fairfax Media, owner of The Age. Over the past two years, Belo published a series of hard-hitting scoops, often about corruption allegations and government contracts. He was charged with criminal defamation over one of them.

Another scoop detailed how the government had hired Miss Australia Caroline Pemberton to be the country's tourism ambassador for a substantial fee.

Last month Belo returned a medal of merit awarded to him by Mr Ramos-Horta for services to the country through journalism, in protest at the unpaid bill. In an accompanying letter, he wrote that he suspected the "withholding of the debt to Tempo Semanal as part of an attempt to control and probably kill the newspaper.

"Your excellency must be aware that our newspaper is thoroughly relying on the money which your office still withholds in order to function."

Belo is no stranger to controversy or confrontation, having spent years supporting the resistance against the Indonesian occupiers and enduring capture and imprisonment.

He said yesterday that he stood by the letter. But Mr Ramos-Horta described the return of the medal as "hasty and silly". The President said papers just did not get to the country areas.

"I travel extensively in the country and I talk to villagers, and I ask do you have the newspaper and hardly anyone told me that they have the newspaper," he said. "I don't blame Belo, logistically it's not easy... but we get audited here. We have to account for the money."

Mr Ramos-Horta said he recently made arrangements with another donor to provide funding to the paper and the money should be transferred today so the paper can be restarted.

He said the situation had nothing to do with the article Belo published about the deal with Miss Australia. "She [Miss Australia] is a friend of mine but the contract was not done by me, it was done by the Tourism Minister," he said. "I don't care what he writes because I hardly ever read the newspaper."

UNMIT/ISF

UN Timor mission to begin pullout in 2013

Australian Associated Press - February 24, 2012

The UN Security Council has decided to extend its peacekeeping mission in East Timor until the end of 2012 but to gradually phase it out after that.

The mission has about 1000 police and military advisers, most of them from Australia and New Zealand, who were deployed in 2006 to help the government in Dili maintain order and security.

East Timorese are to hold presidential elections in March, requiring a continued UN presence on the island nation.

East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta, who attended meetings in New York this week, agreed with the 15-nation council to begin drawing down the UN Integrated Mission in East Timor (UNMIT) in the beginning of next year, citing enhanced security in the country.

Ramos-Horta said a UN political team would remain after the departure of UNMIT.

Smith, Gusmao talk East Timor security

Australian Associated Press - February 20, 2012

Defence Minister Stephen Smith and East Timorese Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao have discussed Australia's future security role as East Timor moves towards elections and an end to the United Nations mission.

Mr Smith said he and Mr Gusmao, on an official visit to Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne, talked about improvement in East Timor's domestic security over the past three-and-a-half years as well as security preparations for the upcoming elections.

"We discussed future bilateral defence co-operation, up to and after East Timor's national elections in coming months, and discussed the continuing, step-by-step transition of full security responsibility to East Timorese authorities," he said in a statement.

"The transition process will be closely coordinated between East Timor, Australia, New Zealand and the United Nations."

Almost 400 Australian soldiers plus a 70-member New Zealand force remain in East Timor as part of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) which has operated since 2006.

The mandate of the UN Integrated Mission to Timor-Leste (UNMIT) expires later this month. Presidential elections are set for March 17 and the parliamentary elections for mid-year.

Australia's mission in East Timor is tipped to conclude later in the year although there's likely to be continuing defence cooperation.

"Prime Minister Gusmao and I look forward to further building Australia- East Timor defence engagement on the basis of shared security interests and mutual sovereignty," Mr Smith said. "We discussed possible future capacity-building activities to be delivered as part of Australia's Defence Co-operation Program (DCP) with East Timor."

The DCP supports East Timor's defence force and secretariat of defence through training, mentoring and exercises. Mr Gusmao arrived in Australia on Friday and leaves on Wednesday.

East Timor confident about security in post-UN future

Agence France Presse - February 2, 2012

Dili – East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta said Thursday that his young nation was capable of handling its own security after UN troops depart at the end of this year, despite fears of violence.

The United Nations Integrated Mission in East Timor (UNMIT) has less than 1,000 police and military advisors in the poor Southeast Asian nation, bolstered by about 460 Australian troops and 75 soldiers from New Zealand.

UN and Australian forces are expected to play an important role during the March 17 presidential election, in which Ramos-Horta is seeking a second five-year term.

"I can drive the streets of Dili in my Mini Moke without any bother whatsoever. Tell me what world leader could do that?" Ramos-Horta said in an AFP interview.

"Local police and military are now taking responsibility for East Timor's security. This will increase as the UN peacekeeping forces and the Australian troops draw down progressively by the end of 2012.

"We are having constant meetings with the UN and the Australian Defence Force and we all agree the situation (is now) safe and stabilised in East Timor, barring a few incidents."

Both the president and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao have said it is integral for the foreign troops to remain during the presidential election and general elections in June – but they only need to stay until the end of 2012.

The president confirmed that UN forces would leave at the end of this year, but the Australian government has not indicated when it would withdraw forces.

East Timor's second election as a free country comes as it marks 10 years since independence, but it was on the brink of civil war just a few years ago and Ramos-Horta was nearly killed in an assassination attempt in 2008. There are fears the presidential election could spark more unrest.

UN and Australian forces have been training East Timorese police and armed forces since Indonesia ended its 24-year military occupation in 1999.

East Timor, a half-island nation with a population of 1.1 million, broke away from Indonesia and won formal independence in 2002. The country is banking on vast offshore oil and gas fields in the Timor Sea to build up the economy. (tm-afq/ac)

Indonesia

Government seeking release of fishermen detained by Timor Leste

Antara News - February 5, 2012

Makassar – The Indonesian government is seeking the release of six traditional fishermen from South Sulawesi caught by Timor Leste police last year.

"We will not stay idle with regard to the arrest of our fishermen by police in the neighboring country," Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Sharif C. Sutardjo said on Saturday.

He said efforts would be made to open communication with the Timor Leste government. It was hoped that through the consulate general offices communication would be built again while developing cooperation in the form of bilateral agreements between Indonesia and Timor Leste.

The agreement includes standard operating procedures for not arresting fishermen using boats below 10 gross tons. "We recently made an MOU on the SOP with our neighbors such as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam to prevent the arrest of fishermen using a boat below 10 GT," he said.

With the MOU it is assured that no Indonesian fisherman would be caught by police from the countries that signed the MOU. He admitted there are around 40 out of 90 Indonesian fishermen that have been released by the neighboring countries.

The six fishermen from Sinjai district in South Sulawesi who were caught by Timor Leste police are Kaharuddin (30) as the skipper, Ambotang (55), Seta (55), Tiar (35), Ramsah (25) and Lagi (25). They left their village on Dec. 24 by boat for Kupang waters in East Nusa Tenggara to fish.

Political parties & elections

Arson attack on East Timor election office

Australian Associated Press - February 23, 2012

Karlis Salna – Police in East Timor are on high alert after two offices connected to the administration of upcoming elections were hit with firebombs.

The attack, at about 3am (5am AEDT) on Monday in the capital Dili, comes just weeks out from presidential elections which will be held on March 17.

A number of bombs were thrown at the National Commission for Elections building and office of the Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration. A United Nations vehicle was also damaged in the attack.

East Timor National Police Commander-General Longuinhos Monteiro said security had been ramped up in the capital as a precaution against any actions designed to impede the activities of the general election.

"An order has been issued by the command that if there are any other similar attempts from today onwards, the police are to use firearms and any other means, to carry out the very big responsibility it has before the constitution of strengthening the democratic process during the elections," Cmdr-Gen Monteiro said.

East Timor was racked by political violence at the last elections in 2006, leading to the deployment of international forces including about 400 Australian troops.

Along with a contingent of just under 1000 United Nations security personnel, they are scheduled to withdraw following parliamentary elections which will be held in June.

While there are fears about the possibility of violence around both elections, both East Timorese President Jose Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao maintain that the troops should leave at the end of 2012.

Cmdr-Gen Monteiro said a number of people had been arrested following Monday's attacks but they were later released due to a lack of evidence. Police have now been stationed at the two offices that were hit by the firebombs.

The presidential election on March 17 is shaping as a re-run of the last poll five years ago which saw Dr Ramos-Horta defeat Fretilin's Francisco Guterres in a second round run-off.

East Timor also faced the possibility of sliding into civil war just a few years ago following an assassination attempt on Dr Ramos-Horta in 2008.

Leader warns of 'wasted' vote in Timor's democratic frenzy

Agence France Presse - February 23, 2012

East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta said Wednesday that many Timorese will waste their vote in a presidential election next month if they back one of the explosion of small parties in contention.

But East Timor's independence hero and Nobel Peace Prize winner also admitted he has taken flak for warning people off some of the marginal candidates among the 13 – including himself – who want to lead the country.

Ramos-Horta told the UN Security Council about chaotic Timorese-style democracy as he hailed changes since deadly unrest in 2006 forced him to appeal for a UN peacekeeping force to be sent.

The meeting was held to formalize plans to end the peacekeeping mission this year – East Timor is now held up as a nation-building success following help from the United Nations and its neighbors.

But on top of the 13 candidates for the March 13 presidential election there are also 24 registered parties for a legislative election. "Twenty- four political parties in a country of one million," Ramos-Horta told UN Security Council envoys.

"I always tell people that the United States, a country of 300 million, a superpower, has two parties, Indonesia a country of 250 million has five parties in parliament.

"I can only hope that the electorate is wiser than the aspiring politicians and cast their votes on a handful of the better-known political parties to ensure stable, functioning majorities," he told the council.

"Because I have talked ad nauseum about this issue in my country I have not earned the sympathy of the aspiring politicians with my frequent blunt appeals to voters not to waste their votes on the new smaller political parties."

The Timor government is now negotiating a new accord for a UN political presence in the country after the remaining peacekeepers leave this year. Ramos-Horta said the new government would make the decision.

The elections will be held as the country marks the tenth anniversary of its independence from Indonesia. Ramos-Horta said that when he appealed for UN help in 2006, as foreign minister, the country was "racing toward the edge of an abyss." He said the crisis could have been averted but blamed it on the growing pains of a new state.

Ramos-Horta praised Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand and others for sending peacekeeping troops and giving other help. Today "Dili is a bustling city, full of life. Today it is peace that is palpable," he said.

East Timor now hopes to soon join the Association of Southeast Asian nations and the Security Council was to pass a resolution on Thursday extending the UN mission's peacekeeping mandate for what should be a final time.

Pires to run against Ramos-Horta for presidency

ABC News - February 7, 2012

Sara Everingham – A Timorese-Australian who was acquitted of conspiring to kill East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta is now running for his job.

Angelita Pires has returned to Darwin from Dili where she has declared her candidacy for next month's Presidential election. Ms Pires was charged over the 2008 shooting of President Ramos-Horta but was acquitted in 2010.

She is campaigning on the issues of economic equality and universal access to justice.

"The priority really is the country and the nation, and where it is headed at the moment," she said. "I think it is common knowledge that, today, East Timor is still fragile."

Ms Pires insists she can be a unifying figure for the country. "My candidacy was mostly due to the requests of many people who felt they don't have access to justice," she said. "They felt that they wanted a change." President Ramos-Horta is seeking a second term in the March poll.

Angelita Pires joins East Timor Presidential race

ABC Radio Australia - February 7, 2012

The Timorese-born Australian Angelita Pires recently declared her nomination in East Timor's Presidential election and is now preparing to begin her campaign.

In 2010 Angelita Pires was acquitted of conspiring to murder the current President Jose Ramos-Horta. She is the former partner of the rebel leader Alfredo Reinado who was shot dead during that attack.

Angelita Pires says she's running to address problems in the justice system and to help provide universal access to justice. She says her concern about impunity in East Timor prompted her to run, in particular the release into Indonesian custody of former militia leader Maternus Bere in 2009.

Presenter: Sara Everingham

Speaker: Angelita Pires, East Timor presidential candidate

Pires: I think it's pretty well known that I was indicted in the case of 11th February 2008, and after the grave injustice that occurred to my person, my priorities have changed a lot Sara, and my candidacy was mostly due to the request of many, many people, many poor people and many of those youths and women who felt that they don't have access to justice and they felt that they wanted a change. Until today they insist that they want a new face and new ideas.

Everingham: So what are these new ideas?

Pires: I think it's very important to clarify that in East Timor there still remains a very fragile, weak justice system. I think it's important to highlight that a President should reinforce, should encourage the separation of powers, he should be able to provide leadership, one that invigorates the youth, one that gives confidence to the country.

Everingham: Is this campaign about raising the concerns you have or the differences you have with the incumbent President Jose Ramos Horta who you've had public differences in the past?

Pires: Not really, I think what happened is very clear and it's no longer about Jose Ramos Horta and I, the priority really is the country and the nation and where it's heading at the moment. And I think it's common knowledge that today East Timor is still very fragile.

Everingham: So as President what would you do to try and improve the lives of people in East Timor?

Pires: First and foremost there has to be access to justice, there has to be equality and especially in the distribution of wealth. When we talk about development Sara I think it's important that even the poorest person in East Timor benefits somewhat of this so-called development.

Everingham: You were very much involved with the petitioners during the 2006 crisis. Do you think you're someone who can bring the country together?

Pires: Definitely I think peace and prosperity is solely dependent on the rule of law. I think I've honoured the courts, I think in the case of the petitioners that's a fine example that our institutions were not functioning according to their constitutional power, and the failure to attend issues quickly, matters like this very quickly and that led to 2006 and 2008. I think I've experienced it and I think I've been a victim of it so to speak, and you learn from your experiences, and I believe that once you feel it in your own skin you're better able to attend the necessities of others.

Everingham: But the President Jose Ramos Horta talks a lot about looking to the future in East Timor. Is there a danger in bringing up the past that could be destabilising for the country?

Pires: The country needs to feel that people who have wounded them that they're accountable. Sure there will be a pardon and there could be a pardon at a later date, but these men must be seen to be responsible to the laws that govern East Timor.

Everingham: If you were elected President would you be trying to develop the relationship with Australia, would you be trying to do anything in that area?

Pires: Definitely, I mean we're an hour and a half away and I think it's important that we continue this work that the previous president has done and the previous governments have done in diplomacy with Indonesia as well as Australia. It's important, I lived in Australia, I know how a democratic system works and it would be an honour really to see at least the Timorese children living 20 per cent of the quality of life that the Australian children have. I was very fortunate and I'd like for them to have the same experience, yes.

East Timor poll shaping up as 2007 re-run

Australian Associated Press - February 1, 2012

Karlis Salna – East Timorese presidential hopeful Francisco Guterres has called for peaceful elections that will avoid the violence which broke out five years ago when the young country last went to the polls.

The head of the main opposition party, Fretilin, has joined about 10 other candidates in officially entering the race for president, including incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta.

While the position of president in East Timor is largely symbolic and carries no executive powers, the March 17 poll will be a significant pointer to the more important parliamentary elections in June.

With just over a month to go before country votes for a new president, the race is shaping as replay of the 2007 poll which saw current President Dr Ramos-Horta defeat Mr Guterres in a second round run-off.

Mr Guterres, also know as "Lu Olo", won the first round in 2007 but then lost the run-off after Dr Ramos-Horta secured the support of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and his National Congress for the Reconstruction of East Timor party.

Dr Ramos-Horta, also announced on Tuesday that he would stand again, presenting a petition of support carrying about 9000 signatures. Mr Guterres claimed the support of almost 23,000 voters in his petition. Under East Timor law, candidates must demonstrate they have the support of at least 5000 voters before they are allowed to run.

Mr Guterres said he was confident the support already demonstrated would translate into a victory for him and Fretilin, which holds about 30 per cent of the seats in parliament. "I start out as my party's candidate, but will be president for all the people of Timor-Leste," the 57-year-old said.

He also appealed for all candidates to conduct their campaigns in a peaceful manner "in a way that contributes to strengthening peace, stability and national unity". "What our people want most of all and fully deserve is peace and stability," he said.

The 2007 elections were tarnished by an outbreak of violence although not at levels seen in 2006 when their were riots in the streets of the capital Dili.

There is, however, still anxiety among many East Timorese who remain worried about the possibility of a return to the violence which racked the country in 2006, particularly in view of the coming withdrawal of international security forces.

The United Nations mission, which includes 1397 police and military advisers, is scheduled to begin withdrawing after the parliamentary elections in June.

Australia also has hundreds of personnel deployed in East Timor under a separate security mission. While Canberra has not yet set a definite withdrawal date, President Ramos-Horta last year called for Australian Defence Force personnel to begin pulling out at the end of 2012.

Since the first elections, the positions of power in East Timor have swapped between Dr Ramos-Horta, current prime minister Xanana Gusmao and Mari Alkatiri, who was the inaugural prime minister in 2002.

East Timor's opposition endorses presidential candidate

ABC Radio Australia - February 1, 2012

Fransisco Guterres, better known as 'Lu Olo', lodged his official nomination for East Timor's presidency on Tuesday with the endorsement of the Fretilin party.

In the last Presidential election Lu Olo received the most votes in the first round but didn't reach the required 50 per cent. He was beaten by Jose Ramos Horta in the second round.

Presenter: Liam Cochrane

Speakers: Fransisco Guterres, Presidential candidate for the Fretilin party; Filomeno Aleixo, translator

Guterres: (Voice to translation) I'm truly confident on my candidacy, because my candidacy's proposed by my own party and the president of the party and the hundreds of thousands of militants of the party of supporters from around the country will make it true.

Naturally, not only my own party supporters are supporting me, but members from other political parties throughout the country (will) vote for me for this presidential election.

Cochrane: And what issues will be important in this election?

Guterres: The main issue for me is to be a pure president of the republic of Timor Leste to consolidate the state's institution, the sovereignty of the country, the law, to have the rule of law in place to serve the country and its people. And be a pure, genuine chief of state for the country. My main commitment is to ensure peace and stability of the civility of the country and be the president for the whole people, the entire people of Timor Leste. I'm committing myself not to be the Opposition or to the parliament or the government of the country, but assure the smooth functioning of the state to serve the country.

Cochrane: The president of the East Timor is also the supreme commander of the military. With the UN expecting to withdraw after the mid-year parliamentary elections, can I ask are East Timor's armed forces ready to stand alone?

Guterres: It's true that the president of Timor Leste will be the supreme commander of the armed forces and I want to make it clear that the armed forces of Timor Leste are ready to assume their own responsibility as armed forces of the country. But one thing is important that our armed forces are ready to secure the sovereignty of the country, but not only that should be done. We are conscious that we need to have good relationship with big neighbours like Australia and Indonesia, countries of the region and the all world to work out proper security and defence mechanisms.

Cochrane: Let me ask you about that. If elected, how do you envisage the relationship between East Timor and Indonesia?

Guterres: We are committed ourself to work out good, proper relationships with every country. For sure, our neighbours should be our own top priority and Indonesia had in the past not a very good history with Timor Leste in the past. But we are not looking backward, we are walking forward and for that reason we need to improve as long as we can from now on the relationship with Indonesia, because we have a new Indonesia, not Suharto Indonesia anymore. We have a democratic Indonesia that started it's own democratic process when Timor Leste recovered its independence.

Cochrane: And what about the relationship with Australia?

Guterres: So far, we have had a very good and strong relationship Timor Leste and Australia and when I'm elected, I'll do all the best to even improve the understanding the relationship we have so far with Australia, extending the cooperation between the two countries, the friendship between the people and the states.

Health & education

Timor-Leste: Falling short on MDGs

IRIN News - February 15, 2012

Bangkok – The Southeast Asian half-island nation of Timor-Leste is falling short on most Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), experts warn.

"The areas that remain challenging or off-track compared to the 2015 targets include poverty, underweight children, maternal mortality and sanitation," Felix Piedade, the national adviser of Timor Leste's MDG Secretariat, told IRIN.

Timor-Leste gained independence from Indonesia to become one of the world's youngest nations in 2002 after a 25-year civil war. Six years of instability followed.

Due to Timor-Leste's recent violence, the UN chose it as one of nine countries worldwide to receive extra support in meeting the MDGs.

While Goal 1 includes halving the proportion of people living on less than US$1 a day, in Timor-Leste that population actually grew from 36 percent in 2001 to 50 percent in 2007, according to Piedade. As of 2009, the rate dropped to 41 percent, still not close to meeting the goal of 14 percent set in 2004.

But there have been some improvements. "Timor-Leste has surpassed the MDG target for 2015 for both under-five mortality rate [96/1,000 live births] and infant mortality rate [53/1,000 live births] based on targets set in 2004," Piedade said.

The country is on track for only two of the other eight MDGs: achieving universal primary education, and promoting gender equality and empowering women, according to UN Development Programme.

Gender

But Silvia Cormaci, a gender mainstreaming expert with the International Labour Organization in Timor-Leste, is skeptical about gender equality gains. "When you talk about gender here, there are different indicators," she said.

Cormaci noted advances have been made in improving the political participation of women, with women comprising 30 percent of parliamentarians – among the highest in Asia. A new law is set to be passed requiring that one in three candidates in the upcoming parliamentary election, scheduled for June 2012, must be a woman.

"But 70 percent of women work in unpaid work in agriculture. And there's big issues on domestic violence, one of the highest rates in Asia – 75 percent of women here have been beaten up," Cormaci said.

Widespread rape and sexual assault of women and children went largely unpunished during the military occupation. Parliament criminalized domestic violence in 2010 after the nation adopted its first penal code the year before.

"A lot of work has been done to train police on the law," Cormaci added. "The problem is that many people turn to the informal justice system, to the head of the village. So you have [a] good domestic violence law there, but implementation is much harder." (ms/pt/cb)

East Timor to trial multilingual education

ABC Radio Australia - February 2, 2012

East Timor's Ministry of Education says it will go ahead with a pilot program to teach young students in their own minority language, despite vocal opposition from some civil society groups.

The Mother Tongue-Based Multilingual Education trial will see schools in three district teach children from pre-school age to grade three in a local language as well as in the official languages of Portuguese and Tetum.

It's being introduced to try to improve the performance of Timorese children at school where they often repeat grades and take many years to gain basic literacy skills.

But it's been controversial. A seminar on the issue last week in Dili descended into shouting as angry opponent loudly voiced their concerns.

Presenter: Liam Cochrane

Speaker: Kirsty Sword Gusmao, Head of East Timor's National Education Commission

Gusmao: The seminar was organised by the network for the promotion of multi-lingual education, which is working with some 20 national and international organisations aiming to promote awareness about the issue of multi-lingual education, the benefits that it brings to learning. There had been quite a bit of debate in the weeks proceeding the seminar on the issue in the national media with the women's network and the (inaudible)... coming out with a statement to say that they condemned the policy, condemned the whole notion of mother tongue education, and claiming that it would lead to national disintegration and national disunity. So the idea of the seminar was to actually educate people about how mother tongue, those multi-lingual education is an important means of helping children to learn better the official languages, giving them first a solid base in their first language, their mother tongue, which in the case of the majority of kids in Timor is neither Tetum or Portuguese.

Cochrane: One of the points that opponents to the scheme make is that in these districts there's not just one local minority language, there are often several, and so that choosing one of these local languages and not one of the others might discriminate against children who don't speak that language. What do you think about that point?

Gusmao: We have actually very carefully selected the pilot schools in consultation with the district education authorities. For example one of the schools is in an area which based on data has about 100 per cent Fataluku-speaking population. So I think the chances of discriminating against children who may speak one of the other minority languages, such as Makalero and Makchai are very small. The way that we can address that situation in other cases is by producing... that are bilingual, both mother tongue and Tetum, so that in cases where children do perhaps speak more Tetum at home than their mother tongue, or there may be a mixed marriage situation where there's more than one mother tongue spoken, they won't be discriminated against, their learning will be supported by instruction and also materials in both Tetum and mother tongue.

Cochrane: And so how will it actually work in a classroom? I mean, have books and teacher's aids been prepared and how will teachers go about teaching in different languages?

Gusmao: Well this is something that's been lacking in our teacher training and professional development of teachers to date, is actually instructing them in the whole concept of additive, multilingualism, have to start with the language that the children learn best, and to transition them in other lesser known languages, such as Tetum and Portuguese. We do have quite a few learning materials that have already been produced in each of the districts where the pilot will be conducted. There are councils for the mother tongue, which are groups of individuals in the community that have an interest in promoting the written development of their languages. So they are producing materials that can be used in schools. Some of the languages, some of the larger languages such as Fataluku do have dictionaries and there's quite a body of written material already in existence. That can't be said for some of the smaller languages, but for that very reason, we're starting the languages where there is already both strong written literature available, and also a huge interest in the community in promoting development of their languages through writing and through learning.

Cochrane: And so when does this all begin? When does school go back, and how long do you think it might be before we start to see some results from this pilot project?

Gusmao: Yeah look kids have gone back already, in fact ironically while all of this debacle is happening we had a team from UNESCO and the national commission from the Alola Foundation, visiting the actual pilot school sites and getting feedback and a basic assessment in schools. And parents were both extremely enthusiastic and welcoming of this initiative, and asked us to please get on with it and start doing it as quickly as possible. So obviously, this whole issue now of various civil society groups being opposed to it has served as a bit of a distraction from the main games, which is a shame. But we hope very much to be able to get cracking and start doing the teacher training in the schools and working with the community to develop sufficient learning materials that can actually support this program very soon, probably by the end of the month.

Cochrane: And is this something that is going to take years, before real tangible results are seen?

Gusmao: Look given the current statistics in terms of kids' literacy, kids are taking up to at the present time up to four years to learn to read and write under the current system, my feeling is that even within one year of this program being run, we'll be able to see some very positive developments in terms of both parents' engagement in their kids' learning, breaking down the divide between the school culture and the home culture, and improvements in the methodology used by teachers, because they have terrible difficulty trying to teach in a child-friendly, child-centred way that engages kids when they are essentially using a foreign language. It's really hard to expect kids to actually develop critical thinking skills, creativity when they can't express themselves in the language of the school.

Foreign affairs & trade

East Timor seeks support in bid for Asean membership

The Nation - February 8, 2012

East Timor or Timor-Leste on Wednesday sought Thailand's assistance and support in its quest for membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or Asean.

The request was made by East Timor's Foreign Minister Zacarius Albano da Costa who is visiting the country as a guest of the Thai foreign ministry.

The minister paid a courtesy call on Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra at the Government House. They discussed bilateral cooperation and the strengthening of ties between the two countries.

Da Costa asked Thailand for support in preparing for his country for Asean membership in the hope that it would become part of the family soon.

Thailand established diplomatic relations with East Timor in 2002, the year the latter became independent from Indonesia. This year, the two countries are celebrating 10 years of friendship.

He told the premier that his government was grateful to Thailand for supporting East Timor independence in 2002 and that his country intends to foster bilateral relations with Thailand. He also invited Thailand to attend East Timor's independence celebration on May 20.

Yingluck invited the country to send delegates to the World Economic Forum on East Asia in Bangkok during May 31-June 1. She also thanked the country for its support during Thailand's flood crisis last year.

Earlier da Costa held discussion with his Thai counterpart, Surapong Tovichakchaikul, to discuss bilateral cooperation, particularly on technical cooperation. Thailand continues to provide human resources development assistance to East Timor.

Surapong proposed holding the 1st Annual Consultation Meeting on Technical Cooperation later this year to review and follow up the mid-term progress under a 3-year plan of cooperation in the fields of agriculture, fisheries and public health.

Surapong also invited East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao to attend the 2nd Asia-Pacific Water Summit to be held in Thailand in May.

Thailand and East Timor have enjoyed close and cordial relations, spurred in part by Thailand's development diplomacy through technical cooperation under the Thailand International Development Cooperation Agency (TICA).

Thailand also continues to dispatch military and police officers to the UN mission in East Timor. In 2011, the volume of bilateral trade reached US$16.07 million.

Economy & investment

High inflation threatens East Timor: IMF

Agence France Presse - February 2, 2012

East Timor's strong economic growth is at risk from high inflation fueled by government spending, the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday.

The oil-rich but impoverished island state, which a decade ago achieved independence after a long struggle, has made "substantial progress toward restoring stability and rebuilding the country," the IMF said in a statement.

"Rising government spending has supported strong economic growth, but inflation has jumped to double digits," it said in a review of the economy.

The government has used its petroleum wealth to step up development by scaling up investment in infrastructure.

"Given development needs, investment in infrastructure is welcome, but the planned increase of spending over the next few years needs to be slowed to better align with the absorptive capacity of the economy and administrative constraints," the IMF said.

Rising spending and a rebound in agriculture had supported strong non-oil economic activity, the Washington-based institution said. It projected non-oil gross domestic product growth would "remain strong" at about 10 percent in 2012 and over the medium term.

But key risks included oil price volatility and a surge in inflation on the back of strong government spending. "High inflation will impose significant costs on the poor," it said.

The IMF also highlighted the East Timor government's "solid" progress in improving public financial management, including a well-managed Petroleum Fund.

The IMF report came the same day as East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta announced he would seek reelection in March 17 polls.

The IMF calls East Timor the "most oil-dependent economy in the world," with petroleum income accounting for around 90 percent of government revenue.

Invasion & occupation

Bombing of Darwin prelude to Timor invasion

Sydney Morning Herald - February 20, 2012

Hamish McDonald – As Australians recalled the Japanese bombing of Darwin 70 years ago yesterday, the leader of a small neighbouring country was reminding us gently that this was but a sideshow to the catastrophe that hit his people a day later.

On January 20 in 1942, the first waves of an invasion and occupation army of 20,000 Japanese soldiers stormed ashore in Dili, the capital of what was then Portuguese Timor. The Darwin attack was to block any Australian attempt to interfere.

But for an earlier violation of Portugal's neutrality by Australian commandos, the colony might have sat out the war untouched by fighting, like Lisbon's other East Asian colony Macau. As it was, the allied troops turned to guerilla warfare in Timor's hinterland and the Japanese crackdown resulted in the deaths of over 50,000 Timorese, about 13 per cent of the population.

In Sydney yesterday, the Prime Minister of East Timor, Xanana Gusmao, laid wreaths and expressed thanks for the support the Australian veterans of the Timor campaign had given the later independence struggle against Indonesian occupation, in which he himself had led the guerilla fight.

"It was a defining time in the relationship between the Timorese and Australians," Mr Gusmao said at the War Memorial, "but also a time in which nationality was transcended, and as human beings our people not only suffered deep pain, they also demonstrated acts of great altruism. It has resulted in bonds of friendship and honour that have left an enduring legacy."

Gusmao is also careful to credit Australia with its intervention in 1999 to stop the rampage by Indonesian forces and their militias after the independence referendum, its continued role as the largest aid donor, and the presence of an Australian led stabilisation force. But there are delicate subjects in which ruthless self-interest, rather than altruism, came to the fore on Australia's side.

One that still resounds is the maritime boundary, where Australia tried to push a discredited model of delineation on the emerging nation a decade ago, one that would have robbed it of most of its major natural resources asset, the $11 billion Great Sunrise natural gas project in the Timor Sea. The then Howard government even withdrew Australia from the jurisdiction of international maritime courts to prevent East Timor appealing to the umpire.

A stiff campaign tipped the share of revenues greatly to Timor but the project operator, Woodside Petroleum, has so far resisted Timor's wish to have the gas processed on its territory, saying this would add $5 billion in costs over its preferred option, a floating gas liquifaction plant above the field.

After bitter words with his predecessor, Mr Gusmao has found a more conciliatory new chief executive of Woodside, Peter Coleman, whom he met for the first time in Darwin on Friday. "It was a very good discussion," Mr Gusmao said. "I could see that they understand our perspective, why we want to bring the pipeline to our shore."

Getting the gas plant and its spin-off is critical to East Timor's hopes of creating jobs and investing in education for its fast growing population, now more than 1 million, with half under the age of 25, Mr Gusmao said. "This is our priority," he said.

As well as 70 years since the Japanese invasion, East Timor will celebrate other big anniversaries this year: 10 years since formal independence, 100 years since the last big rebellion against the Portuguese, 500 years since the Portuguese arrived. It will also be an election year, in which Mr Gusmao, 65, will stand again.

Talking about the past can revive old anger, he said. "We try to persuade ourselves to not forget, to never forget the good and the bad in the past, but to be able enough to forgive. That is why we have a very good relationship with Indonesia... [But] when it is a date to remember our suffering, we have that."

"That is why even looking at some questions related to Australia, we cannot change the past," he added. "This is past, this is history. But I have to say Australia is now playing a very important role in our [development] process." (with AAP)

Lost children of East Timor search for families

ABC Radio Australia - February 17, 2012

During Indonesia's 25-year occupation of East Timor, about 4-thousand children were transferred to Indonesia to live with adoptive parents. Some were taken by soldiers and others were sent by government and religious organisations.

It's not a simple story. In many cases, the children were taken against their parents wishes and were treated like slaves in their new homes. But others were saved from almost certain death in conflict zones and went on to receive an education unattainable in East Timor.

Helene Van Klinken has recorded the first account of this period in her new book called 'Making them Indonesians – Child Transfers out of East Timor'.

Presenter: Joanna McCarthy

Speaker: Helene Van Klinken, author

Van Klinken: I first heard about this when I was living in Indonesia, but basically the idea of taking it up as something that needed to be researched was while I was working for the Truth Commission in East Timor, the CAVR, in 2003.

McCarthy: And you make the point in your book that there were a range of motivations behind these removals. Can you tell us about that?

Van Klinken: The motivations were varied. Of course everybody said that they wanted to help the children and but there were other reasons why people took children. Some of them wanted to because they didn't have children of their own, individual soldiers and civil servants, some of them wanted to have a child of a particular sex, they had all boys and they wanted a daughter, some of them took children because they could work for them and that's not an uncommon practice in Indonesia, but children those cases are often exchanged between family members, but in this case it was often people they didn't know or particularly soldiers. Not all the children were sent into private homes adopted by individuals. Many were sent to institutions and a lot of children were sent to Islamic institutions throughout Indonesia, small groups right throughout the archipelago and they were being offered an Islamic education. So probably to help increase the number of Muslims who were living in Indonesia just like many other religious organisations did. So despite these motives, there were always an underlying motive that they wanted the children to become like a called the title of my book to "Make them Indonesians" and to get East Timor to accept their status as part of or its status as part of Indonesia. And very often in such colonial projects, people start with children, because they are more easily impressed. Of course there were many children or older children who were sent for an education, but the children that I write about were younger children, dependent children, who couldn't make contact with their families themselves. They were dependent on the people who cared for them in the institutions or in the homes where they lived.

McCarthy: And was this officially-sanctioned Indonesian policy or was it something that occurred more on an ad hoc basis?

Van Klinken: In some ways it's both, because on the cover of my book. I just showed you the picture of the president of Indonesia at that time President Suharto and his wife who are entertaining at their private home a group of 20 East Timorese children. He had an organisation that was set up by him specifically to help East Timorese and it started off in that way. And that organistion organised the transfer to Indonesia of about 61 young children. They were sent to Bandung and to Central Java. So one of the group of children that he brought to Indonesia. He took them to his home and invited the media there to see the children and they talked about the children in the media. It was right at the time that the president was offering an amnesty to the resistance, the Fretilin resistance, and I think it was a way to show that Indonesia cared for East Timor and if you join Indonesia, we'll care for you, like we are caring for these children and in a way the Indonesians treated in many ways treated these East Timorese as children. So this picture really summarises or sort of conveys the meaning of what I'm talking about in my book.

McCarthy: And you did have the chance to meet with and speak to adults who had been sent to Indonesia as children. How did they describe their experiences?

Van Klinken: Very mixed, some had good experiences in their homes, particularly those who were taken by soldiers or individuals who didn't have children of their own and then they treated as their own children equally with children or as they would their own children. For others, they had to work hard in their adoptive home and you may know or your listeners will know about Alfredo Alves Reinado. He was one of these children and I talk about him in my book, about his experience of being sent to Indonesia and he was badly treated in Sulawesi and he ran away, so there's a very big difference in the way many of the children were treated. So it depended on the individual who took them.

The children in the institutions knew that they came from East Timor because part of the aim of the exercise was to send them back to East Timor and to help with development in East Timor, or to help convert others to Islam. But for the adopted children, it was a bit different. They were taken there and they were raised as Indonesians.

McCarthy: And for the parents whose children were transferred, whether they gave their consent or whether it was forced upon them. They must have grieved for the rest of their lives. Did you have the chance to speak to any parents?

Van Klinken: Yes, absolutely and one woman had an adoptive document, a letter of surrender that she carried with her all her life. She carried that through up to and even in '99 with her when she had to flee into the mountains. Also, through all the difficulties that she faced, she carried that adoptive document, that letter, because it was so important to her and that's the case with others. Some tell me how they sat, made a table, a place at the table for the missing child believing that one day the child would come home and fill that place.

McCarthy: It's heartbreaking.

Van Klinken: Yes, yes, yes.

McCarthy: And have their been family reunions since?

Van Klinken: There've beeen some, yes. A few that I know of but there have been a few cases where children Biliki who I begin my book with the story of Biliki and she was taken as a six year-old, seven year-old child to Indonesia by an Indonesian soldier, from her family in Ainaro and she threw a handkerchief out the window of the helicopter at the door of the helicopter as she took off. That's probably the only thing that she had and she just remembers the screaming of being taken away. She was taken to Jakarta. She was educated and she's grateful for the education she got. I met her in 2003 and she'd just wanted, she was still desperate to find her family and I was able to... the CAVR, The Truth Commission broadcast her story on their radio program and she was able to reconnect with her family.

Analysis & opinion

Observers to Timor-Leste's elections

Deaken Speaking - February 17, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – As Timor-Leste heads into the three rounds of 2012 elections, election observers have begun to organise to monitor the election process and to report their findings.

Accredited by Timor-Leste's National Electoral Commission (CNE), observers continue to play a critical role in the young country's still developing democratic process.

Observers have been a part of Timor-Leste's democratic process from the start of the country's move towards independence. In 1999, independent observers spread across the then occupied territory, often by local transport and staying in homes or basic local accommodation, helping to enhance the larger international presence and thereby complicating plans by the Indonesian army, then known as ABRI, and its proxy militias to derail the ballot process.

The observers gave Timor-Leste's people an understanding that, though it was a difficult time, they were not alone. In some cases, observers were intimidated and came under direct threat from militias. It was later learned that it was only an ABRI policy of not attacking foreigners for fear of attracting too much negative international attention that prevented observers from being included in, or at the forefront of, their campaign of violence.

Neither the UN nor international observers could stop the destruction and violence that was visited upon Timor-Leste and its people in the lead-up to and following the 1999 ballot. But the observers were able to report these events to the world. Those reports were instrumental in applying moral pressure to other countries to send a peace keeping force that ended the violence and ensured Timor-Leste's transition to independence.

A small number of international observers also attended the 2001 national assembly elections, for what became the country's new parliament and for the 2002 presidential elections. Following the politico-military crisis of 2006, election observers returned to Timor-Leste in 2007 in much larger numbers.

In part, the observers' role was to be able to report on whether the political process was free and fair but, in part, their presence also helped ensure that the violence which continued to sporadically affect the country did not interrupt the elections. People who wish to make mischief with electoral processes are more circumspect about their activities when they know they are being watched and will be reported.

The 2007 elections were held in a tense political environment with Australian and New Zealand soldiers and Portuguese and Malaysian riot police helping to keep the peace. Despite this, there were a number of politically-related killings and dozens of house burnings.

Even though it was a somewhat difficult time, the international election observers were well received by all East Timorese, who saw them as a guarantor of the neutrality of the electoral process.

As with 1999, observers travelled across the country, often by local transport, staying in local homes and guest houses. Again, too, observers showed the people of Timor-Leste that many in the international community continued to care about them and their future.

Observers were at polling stations across the country when, before daylight, sealed ballot boxes were unpacked, the ballot papers checked and the boxes re-sealed to take the soon to be marked ballot papers.

Then the observers watched the voting, noting the processes and procedures and, in a small number of cases, the problems and breaches of rules that accompanied the voting process.

Despite the small number of breaches, all of the observer groups in 2007 declared that the vote in both rounds of the presidential elections and the parliamentary elections had been free and fair. This helped give confidence to the East Timorese people that their electoral system was accurately reflecting their wishes, thus helping to consolidate democracy in Timor- Leste.

In 2012, international observers will again attend Timor-Leste's elections, starting with the first presidential round of voting on 17 March, to be followed by a probable second presidential round on 14 April and concluding with the parliamentary elections on 29 June.

As in the past, volunteer observers will be self-funded volunteers who are committed to Timor-Leste's future and see a transparent and accountable political process as being key to the success of that future. Of the observer groups, the Australia Timor-Leste Friendship Network is expected to be among the largest, with more than 160 expressions of interest in being observers to one of the three electoral rounds.

As with past election observer processes, observers are required to be impartial, non-partisan and not affiliated with any political party in Timor-Leste.

In the case of the Australia Timor-Leste Friendship Network, they should also be committed to human rights and non-violence. Because of the lack of facilities in Timor-Leste, particularly beyond Dili, election observers again need to be prepared to stay in local accommodation (such as home stays), to use local or provide their own transport and be adaptable to local, often simple, foods. Being with the people of Timor-Leste means, for observers, to share their lives, at least for a short while.

Being a volunteer election observer in Timor-Leste is not cheap or even easy. However, watching the way in which the people of Timor-Leste celebrate the coming elections, seeing them in their finest church clothes, queued up at dawn waiting for polling stations to open, is a lesson in the meaning of democracy.

Perhaps when there is so little at stake, such as in developed countries like Australia, it is easy to take democratic processes for granted. In Timor-Leste, voting is the only opportunity many people have to alter the circumstances of their lives. In 1999 they voted overwhelmingly for independence and in 2007 they voted for a new government.

2012 will see the consolidation of the democratic process in Timor-Leste. It will also mark the embedding of the empowerment of the people of Timor- Leste.

The role of the president

Deakin Speaking - February 16, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – The various contenders for Timor-Leste's presidency in the 17 March election have begun to try to persuade the voting public why they should be elected as president. A number of candidates have said that, if elected, they will institute particular changes or reforms. These promises appear, however, to misunderstand the role of Timor-Leste's president.

In short, the role of the president in Timor-Leste is, with few exceptions, a ceremonial one. Apart from a few carefully circumscribed areas, Timor- Leste's president does not have an executive function.

Presidential candidates who announce that, if elected, they will institute particular changes therefore appear to be unaware of the constitutional role of the president. It is either that, or that they wish to change the constitution and give Timor-Leste a different type of political system.

In part, the confusion over the role of the president arises as a result of unofficial terminology around Timor-Leste's political system. The system is commonly referred to as "semi-presidential", which implies shared executive functions between the prime minister and the president. In short, Timor- Leste does not have a semi-presidential system.

The confusion over terminology comes from the Portuguese political system, on which Timor-Leste's constitution is closely modelled. Portugal had a semi-presidential system but, since major constitutional changes in 1982, it is no longer such, even though it is sometimes still referred to in this way.

In most semi-presidential systems, such as that of France, Russia and Finland, the president oversees foreign and sometimes other areas of executive function, but does not usually intervene in domestic affairs, which are the responsibility of the prime minister. In Timor-Leste, such authority devolves to minsters appointed by the prime minister.

The status of Timor-Leste as a parliamentary republic derives from Section 92 of the constitution which states that Timor-Leste's parliament as "the organ of sovereignty of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste that represents all Timorese citizens and is vested with legislative supervisory and political decision making powers" (my italics: Portuguese: "O Parlamento Nacional e o orgao de soberania da Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste, representativo de todos os cidadaos timorenses com poderes legislativos, de fiscalizacao e de decisao politica").

This explicit reference to parliamentary "sovereignty" and "legislative supervisory and political decision making powers", along with a range of other Constitutional references, makes clear that Timor-Leste has a parliamentary, not a semi-presidential, political system.

The role of the president, then, is left to deciding who can carry a majority vote in parliament, declaring amnesties and promulgating or, exceptional circumstances, vetoing, legislation.

Some observers have noted that because Timor-Leste's President has the power of veto over legislation, this implies an executive or discretionary decision making function and thus qualifies Timor-Leste as a semi- presidential system. In that the President has the power of veto over legislation, this is ordinarily a ceremonial or "rubber stamp" function, in which the head of state approves legislation passed by the government.

If the President is unsure about legislation, he or she can refer that legislation for constitutional review, requiring it to be clarified by the senior judiciary competent to adjudicate on constitutional matters. This is noted in the constitution and is consistent with most other parliamentary democracies, including that of Portugal.

That is, other than in highly unusual circumstances, the qualification of legislation devolves not, functionally, to the President but to the constitutional or equivalent court.

So, when presidential candidates talk about the changes they will implement if elected, they are talking beyond the constitutional powers of the president. Perhaps this makes sense to a voting public whose primary experience of presidents was of that under Indonesia's Suharto. But this does not reflect Timor-Leste's parliamentary constitution.

Timor-Leste's presidential candidates would do well to closely study the country's constitution. If they did so, they might be a little more circumspect in the claims they have been making about what they would do if elected as president.

Timor-Leste: Everybody needs good neighbours

The Interpreter - February 13, 2012

Jim Della-Giacoma – Early in 2010, Afghan President Hamid Karzai was sitting in Kabul with some diplomats who had served in Indonesia and Timor-Leste.

"Is it true", he asked, "that Indonesia just walked away from East Timor after 1999?" "Absolutely", they replied.

Karzai is a natural sceptic, but he saw something to be admired in the way Indonesia had turned its back on a conflict by which it had so long defined itself. "This is not something well understood", he said.

Last month at the Australian Civil-Military Centre I was asked to remember what had been learnt from the first three international interventions in East Timor between 1999 and 2002, each often cited as a success story.

First, UNAMET ran the referendum that certified the Timorese desire for independence. Then INTERFET enforced the peace and guaranteed the outcome of the vote would be respected. Finally, UNTAET brought the country to independence.

In 1999, UNAMET, while nominally a UN mission, was an extension of Canberra's foreign policy with the whole of government behind it. Prime Minister Howard rolled up his sleeves and negotiated with President Habibie all sorts of details, including the number of UN civilian police supervising the ballot and the establishment of an Australian consulate in Dili. Foreign Minister Downer proclaimed there should be no logistical reasons for delaying the ballot. If the UN needed something, it would be provided.

Proximity gave Australia both motive and means to back this and subsequent missions. It would not have and could not have done the same for either Sri Lanka or Singapore.

As UNAMET proceeded, the ADF quietly planned for the day when things did go wrong and UN personnel and their families, as well as prominent citizens such as Nobel laureate Bishop Belo, needed sanctuary. This evacuation rolled into INTERFET, which saw an unprecedented mobilisation of Australian diplomatic, military, and financial muscle in support of a peace enforcement operation. About A$740 million later, Australia handed responsibility for security to UNTAET in early 2000.

Most contemporaneous lessons learnt focused on UNTAET's technocratic failings. If you were in it, as I was, you knew it was an ad hoc adventure and a bit chaotic. The experts concluded the UN was unequipped for such a mammoth task and needed to be reformed to meet future challenges. Yet while UNTAET was flawed, it did hand over a functioning government for the Timorese to run on 20 May 2002.

One key factor in the success of these missions is often neglected – the absence of external spoilers. This is what President Karzai saw too.

Timor-Leste was a lucky country that came of age just as Indonesia democratised and its military was leaving the national stage. The post- Soeharto civilian political leadership quickly turned its back on the former province and got on with the business of internal reform. It repealed the 1976 integration law in October 1999 and left the territory to the UN. Then Mines and Oil Minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono renounced Indonesia's claim on Timor's oil, thereby making the new republic economically viable.

By the time the UN was ready to give the country back to the Timorese in May 2002, Indonesia had been through three presidents. Megawati Soekarnoputri, the one least supportive of East Timor's plight, magnanimously showed up for the party.

But, Mr Karzai, Indonesia did not just walk away from Timor, it did something much more extraordinary: it enthusiastically embraced the idea of an independent Timor-Leste.

Such diplomatic gymnastics still startle the old hands every time one of the Indonesian veterans of 1999 blogs, tweets, or posts pictures of new found Timorese friend who was once their adversary. Despite the odd hiccup (the two countries still cannot agree on a land or maritime border), the relationship is increasingly broad and mutually profitable.

After UNAMET was over, UN officials wrote to Australian counterparts to tell them we could not have performed the mission without them. Indonesia never received such thank-you letters, as its turn-around from belligerent party to good neighbour took some years. Also, its misbehaviour and scorched earth policy in 1999 has never been forgotten and neither have the crimes against humanity that took place on Jakarta's watch, which are still to be properly accounted for.

But how did a friendship blossom amid such bitter memories? Most importantly, the Timorese were ready to trade justice for peace. The realpolitik moment was the final report of the imperfect 2005-2008 Commission of Truth and Friendship (CTF). In turn for not pursuing crimes against humanity against Indonesian perpetrators, Timor-Leste, through the CTF, gained a sense of equality with its former coloniser; Indonesia lost the pebble in its shoe as it aspired to fill the boots of a being a regional power.

But such morally ambiguous deals do not negate the strategic reality that is clear now, a decade after independence; you really do need good neighbours to make a complex peace operation work. In the case of Timor- Leste, it took one with deep pockets and can-do spirit to the south as well as another to the west ready to leave quietly, do nothing and then overcome its enormous loss of face to want to try again to be best friends with the new nation over its back fence.

[Jim Della-Giacoma is South East Asia Project Director for the International Crisis Group.]

Commentary by Damian Kingbury - February 14, 2012

Every now and then, sometimes through ignorance and sometimes to push a different agenda, someone comes along and rewrites history. The article below is a good example of that, even if its reasons area less obvious than its inaccuracies.

To start, INTERFET did not enforce a peace; it imposed a peace and then enforced it. There was no peace following the referendum of 1999.

INTERFET was categorically NOT an extension of Canberra's foreign policy. Indeed, Australia did everything it could not to become involved and its preferred position was always that Timor-Leste remain as part of Indonesia.

Then Prime Minister John Howard did NOT negotiate with President Habibie. He did write a letter suggesting an extended time frame for some sort of resoltuion, following talks between Indonesia, Portugal and the UN. The subsequent negotiations with Indonesia over UNAMET was conducted between Indonesia and the UN. Australia had no role in determining the numbers supervising the ballot.

Australia did establish a consulate in Dili, in two rooms of the Hotel Tourismo, which was appropriate given the number of Australians there at the time and the potential dangers.

The decision not to delay the ballot was taken by CNRT, NOT Alexander Downer. Australia did not supply anything to the UN bilaterally.

ADF did NOT quietly plan for the day that things went wrong. Indeed, it was told not to plan. I have the map that the Australian Defence Force used to plan their eventual intervention on my study wall, next to where I am now sitting. If you could see it, you would know that it was put together is a rush and, while functional, would embarrass any proper military planning operation. Australia's lack of forward planning was why its eventual INTERFET mission was so ad hoc.

I strongly suggest that the author read Clinton Fernandes book "Reluctant Saviour", which details the lack of Australia's role at that time, among the many other documents that have been published about events in 1999.

Time for closer ties with East Timor

Jakarta Globe - February 7, 2012

Agus Wandi – On a recent trip to East Timor, while talking to fishermen on Areia Branca Beach, hanging out with taxi drivers, getting lost cycling in Dili with its new street names, catching up with friends working for the United Nations there, having dinner with a Nobel laureate and coffee with a presidential candidate, it was clear that there is one common feeling among East Timorese: despite the misery of the past, despite the persistent problems of unemployment and poverty, the country is looking forward to a better future.

The country, which will elect a new president next month, however, is struggling to attract investment. It is also working hard to make the most of its oil revenues, foreign aid and other revenue sources to rebuild the nation.

Chinese investment is noteworthy – the most visible contributions being the Presidential Palace, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and some other key buildings in the capital. But future investment needs to deal with human development and social capital, especially for East Timor's youth.

If East Timor could strategically invest its limited income, while at the same time tackling corruption, the country might leap forward in the tourism and agriculture sectors. But it's not there yet.

In the long term, East Timor's economic outlook will be affected greatly by its relationship with its two biggest neighbors: Indonesia and Australia.

The relationship with Indonesia is most important as it is both bigger and closer, and therefore more easily accessible. Smugglers at the border with West Timor, part of Indonesia's East Nusa Tenggara province, have already figured this out. It is the politicians from both countries who need to get a better understanding about this situation.

Politically, East Timor is a country in transition. War heroes and heroines are its leaders. The former head of the armed struggle for independence, Xanana Gusmao, is the prime minister. A Nobel Prize winner, Jose Ramos- Horta, is the president. Former underground activists, mostly political prisoners during the time of Indonesian rule, are members of Parliament, ministers, ambassadors or in charge of government agencies.

The challenge is: how do we ensure that former fighters do not hamper the nation-building process? In other words: how can the country's political culture be transformed from a militaristic way of running state affairs to a more open, democratic approach? This is also a question of leadership: how can former commanders of the resistance become good peacetime leaders? This requires different skills and a different mind-set.

It is also necessary for East Timor to move away from the fallacy that those who experienced hardship and suffered greatly during the struggle with Indonesia are more entitled than others to lead the nation. Coming from Aceh, which is still in transition after the 2005 peace agreement signed by Jakarta and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), I know how deleterious this rhetoric can be.

Progress won't come easy – many countries struggle for many years after gaining independence. But as the East Timorese are struggling to come to terms with the past, they are bound to become stronger in dealing with the future. And there already is a collective, national spirit that is waiting to be tapped into.

Overall, democracy is working in East Timor. It is messy, like democracy usually is. The executive, legislative and judicial branches are often in conflict, but that is not extraordinary. This can be seen as a way of settling arguments through the legal system – much preferable to open conflict. In this regard, the presidential election, on March 17, will be a milestone for the transition process.

Yet regardless of the political progress, 10 years after independence from Indonesia and after 30 years of seclusion from the world, the small nation needs assistance more than ever. And Indonesia is well-positioned to lend a hand.

Talking to ordinary East Timorese, it is clear that friendship with Indonesia is high on the country's wish list. As one fisherman told me: "Our kids speak Portuguese at school, Tetum at home, but watch Indonesian TV at night."

"We love Indonesian sinetron," I heard time and again. "We love Indonesian food," another fisherman told me in fluent Indonesian, while Portuguese and Tetum are the country's official languages.

The people are more connected culturally with Indonesia than with any other place. Many civil servants and primary school teachers, forced to speak Portuguese in the workplace or in schools, are visibly uncomfortable.

They understand the logic behind the political decision to create a new national identity, but there is also a need to be practical. For this reason, Indonesian continues to be used in daily conversation alongside Tetum.

Now is a good time for Indonesia to aid East Timor's transition and help it shape its own future. Indonesia is in a much better position to do so than any other country, both strategically and politically. Looking at the past and the future, it is our responsibility to help our neighbor.

East Timor has been very eager to talk about its future relationship with Indonesia. Many among East Timor's leaders are trying to look past atrocities committed by Indonesia. They are worried that opening the wounds of the past would hamper their future friendship with us.

The country realizes it needs to have a good relationship with its most important neighbor. East Timor, as a relatively new nation, would like to have zero enemies and a thousand friends – and the most important friend could be Indonesia.

The East Timorese may have gained independence, but they are yet to fully enjoy the privilege of choice. This is something we, Indonesians, already have.

[Agus Wandi is a former fellow of Harvard University's Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.]

Timor-Leste: Possible electoral outcomes

Deaken Speaking - February 6, 2012

Damien Kingsbury – As Timor-Leste's political climate warms up ahead of next month's presidential elections, many people are asking who is most likely to be elected president. In a country that does not have political polling, there are no obvious indications as to which candidates are most preferred by voters. But there are some indications of possible combinations, each of which could produce very different outcomes.

The vote from 2007 is seen by many as an indication to voting intentions in 2012 but, if so, it is no more than an indication. Since 2007, the political landscape has changed, which could affect how Timor-Leste's citizens vote and how the candidates and parties align themselves.

In particular, there is anecdotal evidence that many of Timor-Leste's are becoming more politically aware, or sceptical of politicians' promises, and not as 'rusted on' to parties or individuals as they have been. This has potential to shift the political landscape in ways that are not currently anticipated by many observers or, indeed, by many political actors within Timor-Leste itself.

Contrary to politics elsewhere, Timor-Leste politicians are unusual in that they do not consider being seen as a leading candidate to be a problem. Indeed, they regularly overstate the extent of their personal or party popularity.

In many other places, it is more common to avoid such claims, for fear of a protest vote or voters believing that the candidate or party has too comfortable a lead and thus voting otherwise. Claiming a vote is close when it is not, or to be an underdog when is in a strong position, is common elsewhere. Not so, however, in Timor-Leste.

As a consequence, if the claims of all of the candidates to their level of success could be taken on face value, the total voter turn-out would have to very significantly exceed 100 per cent.

Of the fourteen candidates registered to contest the presidential election, there are four more clearly strong candidates, based on previous performance or other institutional standing, and a number whose chances of achieving office are less likely.

Of the four stronger candidates, two represents parties and two are standing as independents. Francisco 'Lu-Olo' Guterres represents Fretilin while the Democratic Party's candidate is Parliamentary President, Fernando 'Lasama' de Araujo. Incumbent President Jose Ramos-Horta and former FDTL commander Jose Maria Vasconcelos ('Taur Matan Ruak') are both standing as independents.

Of the party candidates, based on Fretilin's consolidated support base, Lu-Olo can be expected to retain most or all of the 28% he achieved in the first round of voting in 2007 and is hoping to improve on that percentage. Assuming Lu-Olo can make it through to the second round, Fretilin will be seeking support from minor parties. In particular, Fretilin will be looking to the ASDT, disaffected with its government alliance partner CNRT, but somewhat divided within itself. If ASDT moves towards Fretilin, this will put Lu-Olo in a stronger position in the second round than his 2007 final vote of just under 31%.

Lasama will similarly be hoping to retain the just over 19% of the vote he achieved in 2007, not least through his performance as Parliamentary President and, in 2008, as acting President. However, a division within PD, with a senior PD member running as an independent, could cap Lasama's vote.

President Ramos-Horta won almost 22% of the vote in the first round in 2007, but with the support of CNRT and what has since become the Fretilin break-away group, Frenti Mudanca. Frenti Mudanca has nominated its own candidate, Deputy Prime Minister Jose Luis Guterres, who, while having built the party since 2007, may struggle to command one of the top two positions in the 2012 first presidential round. So Ramos-Horta cannot expect support from that quarter, at least in the first round.

However, Ramos-Horta has had five years within which to consolidate his position as president and has not been tainted by some of the allegations that have been levelled at the government. To that end, he may well have built a support base that is now independent of the parties.

The other leading independent, Taur Matan Ruak, is well known and respected and since announcing his intention to run for the presidency has built a strong campaign team. Like, President Ramos-Horta, he would benefit considerably from party support.

Perhaps the main difference between 2007 and 2012 is that CNRT, as the main party of the AMP government, has had more than four years to consolidate itself as a political force. It has also benefited from the advantages of being in office, even if has also worn some of the attendant criticism.

CNRT believes that it will be able to build on the 24% of the vote it achieved in the 2007 parliamentary elections and its leader, Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, has said that he wants CNRT to win sufficient votes to govern in its own right. More than doubling its vote does, however, seem ambitious and some form of coalition to form government seems more likely.

Importantly, however, CNRT has not put forward a party candidate for the position of president. At its recent congress, CNRT agreed to nominate support for an independent candidate. If CNRT supports President Ramos- Horta, other, smaller parties will probably fall in behind, especially if he makes it through to the second round.

However, it is at least equally likely that CNRT will instead support Taur Matan Ruak, which will put him in a very strong position to go into the second round. Alternatively, CNRT could decide not to formally endorse either candidate, but to allow (or suggest to) party members to informally support one or the other of the candidates.

Assuming that Lasama will do relatively well but not sufficiently so to be one of the top three candidates, PD's support can be reasonably expected to go with that of CNRT. The question then is, of Lu-Olo, Ramos-Horta and Taur Matan Ruak, what are their possible configurations going into the second round.

If Taur Matan Ruak does not receive CNRT's support and does not move into the second round, his own support – or that of his voter base – could be expected to go to Ramos-Horta, putting Ramos-Horta in a similar position to that of 2007, where in the second round he easily surpassed the 50% requirement to become president. Ramos-Horta's vote may come down a little from the 2007 landslide of almost 70%, but it should be a comfortable margin none the less.

If, however, CNRT does opt to support Taur Matan Ruak, which seems to be increasingly possible, Ramos-Horta could struggle to go through to the second round. He may do so by squeezing ahead of Lu-Olo but, based on his 2007 figures, that would be less likely.

The question, then, will be if Ramos-Horta does not make it through to the second round, where will his support, or that of his voter base, go? On balance, if Ramos-Horta does not express a preference, most of his voter base would probably vote for Taur Matan Ruak, giving him a likely win over Lu-Olo.

However, Ramos-Horta has previously expressed his respect for Lu-Olo and regards him as a viable alternative president. Ramos-Horta's relationship with Xanana Gusmao has also been tested, particularly over the latter part of his presidency, over reported comments about Gusmao's public behaviour as well as Gusmao's concern over Ramos-Horta stretching the constitutional limits of presidential authority.

If a third placed Ramos-Horta threw his support behind Lu-Olo, it is conceivable that Lu-Olo could receive sufficient support in the second round to become president. This would not necessarily have the direct implications for the parliamentary elections that the outcome of the 2007 presidential vote did, but it could means that, if CNRT was able to form a majority parliamentary alliance again, it could be faced with a less amenable president.

Less likely but still possible, Taur Matan Ruak could become president with Fretilin taking advantage of the difficulties faced by the current AMP government, assuming it does not win an absolute majority, to hive away sufficient support to form a majority alliance in parliament. The difficulty here will be that, apart from ASDT, its potential parliamentary partners might be too small to give it a majority alliance.

A third, even less likely outcome is that Ramos-Horta becomes president with a Fretilin alliance government.

Alliances and coalitions are, by nature, fractious and unreliable political formations, but it seems such an arrangement will be necessary to ensure sufficient voter support if each of the three main presidential candidates are to achieve office. The advantage here is that, once the president is elected, he (and it will very likely be a 'he') is not beholden to particular party interests, although historical relationships will count for much.

So, it may be possible to divine from the presidential electoral process not just, most obviously, the orientation of the new president but, importantly, what sort of alliances might be formed following the parliamentary elections. It is less clear, however, what their actual vote will be, particularly with some possible fluidity among non-Fretilin parties.

One point is now clear, though, with the precedent having been established in 2007, that parties will not have to commit to particular alliances or coalitions ahead of the elections in order to form government after them. They will, therefore, be able to retain, rhetorically at least, the aspiration of achieving a single party government.