East Timor News Digest 2 – February 1-28, 2009
- East Timor 'needs help' a year on - BBC News
- East Timor on knife-edge, say analysts - Australian Associated Press
- Timor-Leste: No time for complacency - Reuters
- East Timor security improves, reforms needed - Report - Reuters
- UN peacekeepers to stay in East Timor - Agence France Presse
East Timor 'needs help' a year on
BBC News - February 11, 2009
One year after the near-fatal shooting of East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta, the country's foreign minister has admitted it still needs help.
He made the comments during discussions with his counterparts from Australia and Portugal, who also acknowledged that more needed to be done.
The International Crisis Group recently released a report on East Timor, saying security had considerably improved. But it accused Mr Horta of damaging the rule of law by pardoning rebels. It said the government had been buying off potential troublemakers, and that the necessary reforms to the security sector had still not taken place.
"Ramos-Horta's interventions in the process of justice... send a signal that those involved in political violence – especially the political elite and the army – will not be held to account," the ICG said.
Mr da Costa described the report as "unfair". "The international community has to acknowledge the efforts that the government has made and what we have done so far to improve in such a short time – in less than a year – the situation in the country," Mr da Costa said.
"We still need to consolidate the justice sector [and] the finance sector," he conceded. "It has to be said that when Indonesians left the country, the country had to be built from scratch."
Improvements
The BBC's correspondent Lucy Williamson says that in the capital Dili, appearances have improved significantly.
The refugee camps which dotted the city after the violence in 2006 have largely gone; the soldiers who deserted from the army have returned – and been given compensation; the streets are calm; businesses open; new construction projects under way.
But deep-seated problems have yet to be tackled. Our correspondent says the violence that swept East Timor in 2006 was sparked by political interference in the country's armed forces and opened up historic tensions between Timorese from the East and West of the country.
Thousands of UN police and foreign soldiers remain in the country nearly seven years after it gained formal independence from Indonesia.
East Timor on knife-edge, say analysts
Australian Associated Press - February 10, 2009
Nelson da Cruz – A year after rebel attacks left East Timor's president fighting for his life, the nation is on a "knife-edge" amid threats to stability from grinding poverty and a culture of impunity, analysts say.
President Jose Ramos-Horta was shot and wounded in a clash with renegade soldiers at his home outside the capital, Dili, on February 11 last year, in an incident that claimed the life of rebel leader Alfredo Reinado.
The shooting – followed just an hour later by a failed attack on the convoy of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao – prompted fears of a return to chaos in the country just two years after fighting among police, soldiers and street gangs left at least 37 dead.
But instead of triggering fresh violence, the death of the charismatic Reinado helped bring an end to a rebellion of 600 disgruntled soldiers which he had led, analysts say.
The problem now is to stop that hard-won stability from slipping away.
"One shouldn't speak ill of the dead, but Reinado's death removed a major impediment to peace," George Quinn, an East Timor expert and fellow at the Australian National University told AFP.
With Reinado gone, East Timor's government succeeded in convincing the remaining rebels to abandon their refuge in the country's hills and surrender.
But the government has been criticised from both inside and outside the country for apparent delays in trying Reinado's men, including his surviving second-in-command Gastao Salsinha.
And analysts have said that even amid the government's success in ending Reinado's rebellion may lie the seeds of future instability.
This is because of Ramos-Horta's apparent willingness to pardon members of Reinado's rebel outfit, which they say shows a culture of impunity.
"I met Mr Salsinha and some of his friends and I don't want them to be held responsible for the crisis that occurred because they weren't the leaders," Ramos-Horta told reporters last week, indicating he would pardon them if they were convicted.
"I can't give a pardon before the legal process is done. After the legal process I can give a pardon, but before that I can't do anything," Ramos-Horta said.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), an organisation that works to prevent conflict, argued in a report this week that while the Nobel Laureate's forgiving approach may secure peace in the short term, it could undermine the rule of law in months and years to come.
"Ramos-Horta's interventions in the process of justice are intended to promote national reconciliation, but could well have the opposite effect." the ICG said.
"They send a signal that those involved in political violence – especially the political elite and the army – will not be held to account."
Another challenge is that East Timorese people are trapped in a cycle of extreme poverty and face widespread unemployment, Quinn said.
A dysfunctional education system and the world's highest birthrate have fed the growth of gangs of unemployed youths in Dili.
Deep divisions between Timorese from the east and west of the country – which triggered the 2006 crisis – still bubble under the surface, including in the police and military.
The ongoing problems mean the country remains dependent on thousands of UN police and foreign soldiers nearly seven years after gaining formal independence from Indonesia, after a bloody 24-occupation by its neighbour that led to the deaths of up to 200,000 people.
"The risks of a recurrence of violence and stagnation are very real... my impression is that East Timor is on a knife-edge at the moment. It could go either way," Quinn said.
Timor-Leste: No time for complacency
Reuters - February 9, 2009
Dili/Brussels – A year after Timor-Leste's president Jose Ramos- Horta was shot, security is markedly improved but at the cost of an army that is unreformed and increasingly unaccountable.
Timor-Leste: No Time for Complacency, the latest update briefing from the International Crisis Group, says the government has been able to face its most pressing security threats, with armed rebels under control. It has at least temporarily addressed several of the most pressing security threats, in large part by buying off those it sees as potential troublemakers.
"There are worrying signs of disdain for the justice system and civilian control over the army", says John Virgoe, Crisis Group's South East Asia Project Director. "The police and army depend too heavily on a few individuals and on personal relationships that have been able to hold the security forces together".
11 February 2008 was a major crisis for Timor-Leste: a rebel leader killed, the president seriously wounded, and an unsuccessful attack on the prime minister. The government imposed a state of siege and curfew. A week later, as the president lay in hospital, the government brought elements of the army and police under a joint command to track down the remaining rebels.
Since then, former soldiers known as the "petitioners" have been compensated, and a good start has been made on sorting out life for the 30,000 internally displaced persons. But the government's tactics have often amounted to little more than buying off the complainants. The ready granting of money, rice or other economic inducements to various pressure groups – not just the petitioners and the IDPs, but also veterans, civil servants and others – creates social jealousy, risks distorting the economy and may foster an entitlement culture.
The underlying drivers of conflict – most especially in the security sector – remain. The government has bought time to pursue permanent solutions, but a lasting return to health will require the government to seriously tackle the causes of conflict, including fundamental reforms in the security sector, and to promote rather than undermine the rule of law. Presidential interventions in cases involving political violence have undercut an already-weak justice system. Timor-Leste has seen too much impunity, and too many people have evaded responsibility for their actions.
"The current calm is not cause for complacency", warns John Virgoe. "The government needs to reform the army and police, but they also need to tolerate dissent, be more transparent, and get a grip on corruption".
East Timor security improves, reforms needed - Report
Reuters - February 9, 2009
Sunanda Creagh, Jakarta – Security in oil-rich East Timor has greatly improved in the year since an attack on President Jose Ramos-Horta, but significant reform is needed to create long-term stability, a think tank said on Monday.
East Timor, which was invaded by Indonesia in 1975, has suffered from outbursts of violence and unrest since gaining full independence in 2002.
"When President Ramos-Horta was shot in February 2008, many feared Timor-Leste (East Timor) was falling back into violence. But the incident and its aftermath strengthened the government," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report.
Australian media reported late last year the fledgling nation was on the brink of collapse, citing a leaked UN peacekeeping briefing, but the ICG said security in East Timor had "strikingly improved" in the last 12 months.
"Armed rebels are no longer at large. The atmosphere on the streets of Dili is far less tense. The government does not seem to be facing any serious political threat to its survival," the ICG said, while urging the government to strengthen the legal system, reform the military and police force, and curb graft.
In 2006, 37 people died and 150,000 were left homeless after a split between the country's military and police sparked fighting between Timorese from the country's east and west.
A group of rebel soldiers shot and wounded Ramos-Horta in February 2008, and attacked Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao on the same day. Alfredo Reinado, the rebel leader, was killed during the attack on Ramos-Horta, and his death encouraged insurgents to return to civilian life, helping reduce the violence.
Compensation for former rebels and refugees also helped resolve the unrest, the report found.
But "security sector reform is lagging, the justice system is weak, the government shows signs of intolerance towards dissenting voices and it has not got a grip on corruption", the ICG said in its report.
"These problems, which have been at the root of the instability facing Timor-Leste since independence, must be tackled if the country is to escape the cycle of conflict."
The East Timorese government should complete a comprehensive security review, as recommended by the UN Security Council in 2006, or else face the risk of "disdain for the rule of law and rejection of civilian control", the report said.
The think tank also warned that Ramos-Horta's tendency to issue presidential pardons sent the wrong message, suggesting that those involved in political violence, especially the elite, were above the law, while handing out compensation could lead to social tensions and create welfare dependency. (Editing by Sara Webb and Sugita Katyal)
UN peacekeepers to stay in East Timor
Agence France Presse - February 27, 2009
The UN Security Council decided unanimously on Thursday to keep its peacekeeping mission in East Timor for another 12 months, noting that the political and security situation there remains fragile.
Timorese President Jose Ramos-Horta appeared before the council last week to urge continued UN assistance to the tiny southeast Asian island nation.
The council said the UN Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT) will remain until February 26, 2010, with the same composition of nearly 3,000 police and civilian personnel.
The mission has been providing security to the country and training to local forces.
The UN was first involved 10 years ago in helping East Timor to gain independence from Indonesia and in organising elections to establish the current government.
Ramos-Horta's government is scheduled to organise local elections this year and has called on the international community to lend assistance for the democratic process.
East Timor sees double-digit GDP growth - President
Reuters - February 19, 2009
United Nations – Oil-rich East Timor can maintain double-digit economic growth in 2009 because falling prices for commodities should reduce spending on imports, East Timor's president told the UN Security Council Thursday.
"Our economy is doing very well with more than 10 percent real growth at the end of 2008. With a 2009 budget of $680 million and $200 million in donor programs, I believe we will be able to maintain two-digit growth in spite of the international financial crisis," said President Jose Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize winner.
East Timor's dependence on imported goods, from basic foods to cement and steel, meant it suffered greatly from the 2007-2008 food crisis when prices soared globally. "While our petroleum revenues will be significantly reduced, so will our import bill as commodity prices fall," Ramos-Horta said.
Amid the global financial crisis, economic growth in the developed world is contracting and dragging down growth in emerging markets, which were largely unscathed until six months ago.
East Timor is rich in oil resources, but it is just starting to develop them. The country has an average income of just 50 US cents a day. Over 40 percent of its population of roughly 1 million is unemployed.
Ramos-Horta said spending from the country's petroleum savings fund, worth more than $4 billion, will allow the government to invest in strategic sectors of the economy and "fuel economic growth and relative wealth."
The price for a barrel of crude oil surged to a record high above $147 in July 2008, but the global economic downturn has since pulled it below $40.
The fledgling nation, which was invaded by its neighbor Indonesia in 1975, has experienced uprisings and unrest since gaining full independence in 2002 after a period of UN administration.
Ramos-Horta was shot and wounded in February 2008, the same day Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao was attacked. Since then the security situation has "strikingly improved," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group said Feb. 9.
That contrasted with news reports in late December 2008 in the Australian media that said East Timor was on the brink of collapse, citing a leaked UN peacekeeping briefing.