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Than Shwe's parliamentary strategy: Hold on to power
Irrawaddy - November 25, 2010
Larry Jagan, Bangkok – Aung San Suu Kyi has been free now for over a week. She has met many activists and supporters as she starts to plan for the future. She has spoken to several world leaders, including UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the Philippine's President Aquino; she plans to talk to Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva next week.
But this is no Mandela moment in Burma. The junta is still entrenched in power and Than Shwe consistently prefers to ignore the Nobel Peace Laureate rather than talk to her.
In South Africa, Nelson Mandela's release marked a decisive turning point in the country's struggle to end Apartheid. Discussions were held before his release and the white South African president, de Klerk, helped in the negotiations and the transition to a multi-racial democracy. Both were awarded the Nobel Peace prize for their joint efforts. Unfortunately, Than Shwe is not a de Klerk and has persistently turned a deaf ear to calls for a dialogue and genuine national reconciliation, especially any olive branches from the Lady.
However, things are changing, and they are not likely to include the pro-democracy opposition or the National League for Democracy. Suu Kyi's release may be a side-show, a diversion to draw attention away from the important developments.
The senior-general certainly has a game-plan. One in which the elections held some two weeks ago are central.
Almost unnoticed, amid the euphoria of Aung San Suu Kyi's release, the regime very quietly announced the final results last week with the pro-junta United Solidarity and Development Party winning a little more than 75 percent of the seats in the two national parliaments and the 14 regional assemblies. So Than Shwe has what he wanted – control of the country's parliaments and the ability to exert power over future developments. But the big question remains what form will this new 'so-called' civilian administration take. And how will Than Shwe manipulate the process.
Since the elections, Than Shwe has visited the presidential palace on at least three or four occasions, giving rise to rumors that he plans to become Burma's first president. But this is not his game plan, according to sources in the military.
Thura Shwe Mann – the third most powerful former general in the State peace and Development Council, who was forced to retire to run in the elections – seems destined to take that post. Thura Shwe Mann was introduced to China's leaders during Than Shwe's visit to Beijing several months ago as the future president, according to Chinese diplomats in the capital.
Although the president may be a fore-gone conclusion, there are tussles taking place for other key posts in the new administrative system. But the most bitter battle, at the moment, is for the position of speaker of the house. Strenuous jockeying is already taking place in Naypyidaw between the current prime minister, Thein Sein, secretary one former general Tin Aung Myint Oo and information minister Kyaw Hsan. Others also covet the position. The speaker is going to be the most powerful post in parliament, after that of the president, controlling how often the national assemblies meet, and what is on the agenda.
So what is Than Shwe's future? He is certain to remain the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. He cannot afford to relinquish this position, or else his power-base would evaporate over night. He must keep control of the army, and he can only do that by remaining the man in charge. He will definitely do that for a year or so – then he may give way to someone else he trusts, once the new system of government has proved itself, after which he is likely to become the honorary president of the USDP.
But Than Shwe is also going to be an MP. The 166 military positions in parliament – under the constitution 25 percent of the seats in all parliaments are reserved for serving soldiers – will be filled by almost all the current top brass in the army, with the senior-general at this caucus' helm. Many analysts have thought there may have been room for change if there was a dialogue within parliament between soldiers and civilians. This is clearly not going to be the case with Than Shwe in charge of the military bloc. He may also want to remain the positions he is now taking – the defense minister and commander-in-chief of armed forces – in the new regime – to further consolidate his power base.
The stacking of parliament with all the current military commanders also raises fears that parliament will not only be a rubber stamp, but it also won't meet very often. It must under the constitution convene once a year. The old Burma Socialist Programme Party parliament, under late strongman Gen Ne Win, met four times a year. There is no reason to believe that Than Shwe's plan is to meet more often than that.
Of course, the speaker can call an extra-ordinary meeting of parliament if enough MPs petition for it.
So the speaker is going to be pivotal for Than Shwe's strategy to succeed, though already he has enough parliamentarians on his side to make sure parliament only meets when he wants it to.
In the end it will be the executive – the cabinet and ministers – who are going to be in charge of the day-to-day running of the country. It seems that Than Shwe still believes his Constitution has created a parliamentary system, according to sources close to the top brass, whereas in reality it is more like a presidential system, not unlike the US and the Philippines.
The president – at least formally – appoints the cabinet. Under the Constitution that means ministers do not have to be elected-MPs, unlike the president or the chief justices in the regional parliaments. This does not seem to have quite dawned on the senior-general yet. So it will be crucial who gets these lucrative ministries and how open they are to advice and new ideas.
There is much discussion at the moment in Naypyidaw about a broad cabinet that could win national consensus, including some representatives from the ethnic minorities and the democratic opposition. Though at present this seems to be constrained by the idea that the junta needs to do the horse-trading between the parties that have won seats in the parliament, along the lines of what happens in real democracies like India and Thailand.
Of course, if Than Shwe was really a strategic thinker and interested in gaining international credibility, he might consider casting his net much wider than parliament in search of ministers who could make a major contribution in the final stage of the road-map. This could involve a real transfer of power to civilians over the next few years – in what would be a real Mandela moment.
One idea, which Than Shwe is unlikely to entertain, would be to try to enlist the support of some of the NLD, including possibly inviting Suu Kyi to participate – perhaps as education minister, which she indicated to Khin Nyunt before her release in 2002 was her ideal post, senior military intelligence officers told this writer at the time.
But things have changed since then. Her party is banned and the regime is trying to boost support for its fraudulent election.
Until the new civilian government is finally unveiled there is unlikely to be any dialogue between the regime and Suu Kyi. Any prospect of national reconciliation and talks will rest with the future president, Thura Shwe Mann, as well as the fate of the ethnic minority cease-fire groups.
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