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No big change expected in US policy on Burma
Irrawaddy - September 23, 2009
Aung Zaw – A joke going the rounds in Rangoon reports that Burma's paramount leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe and his wife Kyaing Kyaing have been practicing their English in preparation for a visit to the White House in Washington.
Than Shwe and Kyaing Kyaing perhaps still have plenty of time to practice and improve their English before they receive a White House invitation. Yet it's no secret that the Burmese regime wants to repair its frosty relationship with Wshington and is especially keen to see US sanctions lifted.
US policy on Burma is likely to remain more or less the same, however, although it would be no surprise to see more engagement and an increase of aid inside Burma.
The regime has been sending signals to the US since President Barack Obama entered the White House, although they are not meaningful enough to cause the US to consider a dramatic shift in Burma policy.
Among the signals was the decision by Than Shwe to meet US Senator Jim Webb in August and to allow him access to detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, a concession denied UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon when he visited Burma. Webb, a Virginia Democrat, advocates closer ties to the junta.
Last week's amnesty, which included a handful of political prisoners, indicated that the regime was stepping up its public relations exercise ahead of the UN General Assembly session and a high level Burmese visit to New York and Washington.
Last Friday, Burmese Foreign Minister Maj-Gen Nyan Win arrived in Washington, where he held meetings with members of the Burmese embassy, a US-Asian business council and Sen Webb, according to Burmese embassy spokesman Kyaw Win.
Though he did not meet any US officials, Nyan Win visited the White House, the Lincoln Memorial and the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum. Nyan Win is expected to attend the UN General Assembly session.
Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein also plans to attend the session, the first time in 14 years that the regime has sent a high-level delegation to the UN.
Thein Sein, who previously served under Than Shwe in the War Office, is expected to address the UN with a defense of his government's constitution and plans for a general election in 2010.
Political pundits are asking whether Nyan Win's visit to New York and Washington is a sign of a softening US approach in its Burma policy.
For the past 20 years, the US – the strongest advocate of democratic government in Burma – kept a distance, while applying tough sanctions, although there have been small jabs at breaking the ice.
In 1994, Lt-Gen Chit Swe, Burma's forestry minister at the time, paid a semi-official visit to the US and met US congressmen, senators and hardwood companies. His itinerary included visits to the White House and Texas and a tour of the US warship North Carolina, which was being converted into a museum.
The US needed 170 tons of teak to repair the 50-year-old vessel. Chit Swe informed Than Shwe, who agreed to send the timber to the US – as a gift. To avoid political fallout, however, the teak reportedly reached the US via agents in Singapore.
Chit Swe is now retired but is still a keen observer of US-Burmese relations. "We need more engagement (with the US) and we need more lobby," he told The Irrawaddy this week. In his memoirs he recalls fondly his 1994 visit to Texas and New York and meetings with American friends, including Senator Richard Shelby.
Lobbying was taken seriously by the Burmese regime six years ago, when the junta paid the Washington-based DCI Group $348,000 to lobby on its behalf. The regime had come in for strong condemnation by the US State Department for its human rights record.
US Justice Department records show that DCI worked to "begin a dialogue of political reconciliation" with the regime.
Although the US downgraded its relations with Burma after the 1988 uprising, legislators including John McCain, Richard Shelby and Bill Richardson have visited Burma. Richardson was the first US official to meet detained leader Suu Kyi in 1994.
In May 2002, when the regime released Suu Kyi from her second term of house arrest, the administration of former President George W Bush allowed senior military intelligence officials from Burma to visit Washington to explain the regime's fight against drugs.
Then, just one year later, came the attack by pro-regime thugs on Suu Kyi's convoy in Daypayin and her renewed house arrest. Relations cooled again, the US tightened its sanctions – and now the two sides are back at a critical juncture, with the Burmese regime testing the possibilities of narrowing the divide and the US scrutinizing the effectiveness of its Burma policy.
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