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Burma's octopus strangles reform
Irrawaddy - July 7, 2011
It has emerged that Vice-president Tin Aung Myint Oo is deliberately trying to undermine the new president and assert his influence over the new army chief, Gen Min Aung Hlaing.
"He's trying to control everything," a Burmese businessman told The Irrawaddy on condition of anonymity. As a result, the president's planned economic reforms and the release of thousands of political prisoners have been put on hold.
The vice-president represents the old guard – and their hard-line attitudes – and he wants to make sure everything stays unchanged. His mentor, the former top junta leader, Snr-Gen Than Shwe has withdrawn from the day-to-day activities of government, leaving a power vacuum which Tin Aung Myint Oo is trying to fill at the expense of the more reform-minded president.
The vice-president (commonly known in Burma as "Shid-lone," meaning "eight words," because his full name is Thi Ha Thu Ra Tin Aung Myint Oo) is trying to establish himself as the new dictator – or the most powerful man in the country. Everywhere he turns he tries to establish his authority, according to sources in Naypyidaw who say he uses every opportunity to usurp the president's authority.
He has been left with few avenues of formal influence now that the trade council he headed has been dissolved, but that has not dampened his efforts to monopolize the economy. "He's a spoiler," said a senior government official. And if he comes out on top, the country will be returned to the Dark Ages, he added.
After every Cabinet meeting, which usually takes once a week, the ministers are summoned into his room – without Thein Sein – for tea and an ear-bashing. Sources in Naypyidaw say he tries to exert influence on government decisions behind the scenes, especially on economic matters – especially import and export licences and company registration, which he previously controlled as head of the trade council.
The commerce minister has to report to him twice a day, according to sources in the capital. Ministers were shocked recently when their budgets were arbitrarily cut by 20 to 40 percent – except Defence, of course – by Tin Aung Myint Oo. Some ministers are reportedly so upset that they are using their own personal funds to pay for new schools and health centres, a Burmese businessman recently told The Irrawaddy.
There is a major battle for control going on between the president and his vice president – one which will determine whether the government's plans and vision set out in Thein Sein's speech to the parliament more than three months ago will be implemented. After the president ordered the export tax to be reduced to 5 percent, the vice president intervened – with the support of the finance minister – and had it reduced to only 7 percent.
Perhaps the most critical tussle is over the role the army is to play under the new regime. Under the new army chief, it seems clear that the army is no longer involved in politics. They are very much back in the barracks. Interestingly, the military MPs in both the national houses of parliament were virtually silent during the discussions in parliament during its first session earlier this year.
Min Aung Hlaing told the military MPs – who occupy 25 percent of parliamentary seats – before the parliament started its session that their duty was to rebuild the tarnished reputation of the army through their political work. "It's your duty to become seasoned politicians," he reportedly said, "as you represent the future Burma." He virtually blamed the old guard for the current mess, said one of the military MPs.
But Burma's new "Octopus," Tin Aung Myint Oo, is unhappy with this current state of affairs. He wants the army to exert pressure on the executive and legislature in his favour. Several weeks ago, the vice-president summoned the army chief to see him and lectured him on the power structure, telling the general that he was the boss, as militarily he outranked Thein Sein. A silent Min Aung Hlaing was then reportedly assaulted with an ashtray.
But for the present, it seems the army chief remains his own man, intent on reforming the military machine, making it more professional. He is after all, according to several military sources, part of the army's 88 generation. He definitely supports Thein Sein – at least for the moment, according to senior military sources.
This new generation of army commanders are close to Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, according to a Western intelligence source.
They dislike but respect Than Shwe, said the source, but they completely despise the vice-president.
But the Octopus is marshalling his forces. Information and Culture Minister Kyaw Hsan has emerged as one of his main allies. He recently tried to get him co-opted to the National Security Council, which is emerging as one of the most important institutions in the post-junta framework. This was unconstitutional and resisted, according to military sources in the capital.
For the moment these layers of political intrigue are dogging Burma's movement forward – albeit to a unique form of guided democracy. With the Octopus tentacles tightly controlling business in Burma, he is slowly transforming the new hierarchies.
Even trusted old business friends of Than Shwe, such as Tay Za, are finding themselves shut out as control of the economy is being handed over to the new business leaders – criminals such as Stephen Law (aka Tun Myint Naing) of AsiaWorld and Ko Ko Gyi (who now owns Shwe Myin).
They are the new breed of Chinese mafia businessmen – and they are currently making vast profits with the Octopus's blessing and support. After all, Tin Aung Myint Oo is himself reportedly very close to Beijing, and has profited enormously as a result. This is going to have very significant consequences for the future Burma.
But the real danger to Burma's political future – while the power struggle between the two politicians is unresolved – is the possibility of a military coup, led by the army chief, at Than Shwe's bidding.
Vice-president Shid-lone and his cronies remain the villain of the peace, and seem intent on continuing to paralyse any political and economic reforms that would benefit the country and the people.
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