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Suu Kyi's release may help junta's economic ties
Agence France Presse - November 17, 2010
Roberto Coloma, Singapore – The release of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi could pay off economically for Burma's junta even though Western nations are unlikely to ease trade and other sanctions soon, analysts have said.
For years, the military regime of resource-rich Burma has blunted the impact of US and European punitive measures by cultivating trade and investment links with neighbors, led by Thailand, China, India, Singapore and Malaysia.
Suu Kyi's freedom and this month's rare election may reduce the stigma of doing business with Burma, even though her party boycotted the vote and the results were dismissed as a sham by many world leaders.
"It is a welcome sign," said a senior official from the Malaysian Ministry of Trade who declined to be named. "We hope this is the start for a change and that it will encourage more investments in Burma."
But opponents of the junta fear that any increased money flowing into the impoverished country will not improve the lives of ordinary people.
Burma is one of the world's least developed countries, with nearly a third of the population living below the poverty line as the generals and their associates exploit raw materials for their own benefit.
Asian neighbors China, India and Thailand already overlook human rights concerns in favor of engagement with Burma, which boasts oil, gas and other natural resources as well as tremendous tourism potential.
India gave Burma's leader, Than Shwe, a red-carpet welcome in July and the two countries signed pacts on border security, road building and finance. But for India, as the world's largest democracy, Burma's recent moves could help to ease domestic political pressure not to prop up the regime.
"The release of Aung Sang Suu Kyi gives India a greater diplomatic space to engage with Burma without the fear of being criticized while dealing with the military dictatorship regime," said C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the New Delhi research organization National Maritime Foundation.
Thailand is another top investor and trading partner, importing more than 90 percent of all of Burma's natural gas exports. A major Thai construction company recently signed an $8 billion infrastructure deal with the military-ruled country, including the construction of a giant deep sea port in the impoverished nation.
China, a single-party state often criticized for its own human-rights record, is also expected to forge closer economic ties regardless of the political situation as it scours the world for natural resources to feed its fast-growing economy.
Indeed, it recently became the largest foreign investor in Burma this year, state media in Beijing reported. Among projects already under way, China National Petroleum Corporation is building an oil and gas pipeline from Burma's Kyuakryu port to southwestern China.
"Both the junta and Chinese Communist Party have an understanding that whatever the West and rest of the world thinks about human rights and the Nobel prize, it will not really have an impact on the development of ties and support for each other," said Ian Holliday, a professor at the University of Hong Kong.
Burma watchers said it was too early to say if the developments could lead to an easing of Western sanctions on the regime, which is still holding an estimated 2,200 political prisoners, and they underscored the crucial role to be played by Suu Kyi.
Alistair Cook, a fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that Western nations would await "feedback" from Suu Kyi, who planned to consult the people of Burma.
"Should they want an end to the economic sanctions, then I am sure Aung San Suu Kyi and other pro-democracy leaders will articulate this. It will be then up to those states imposing economic sanctions to respond accordingly."
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