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Tibet's hopes stir winds of change
Sydney Morning Herald - November 22, 2008
[As the Dalai Lama prepares to step back, exiled Tibetans urge greater action, write Matt Wade in New Delhi and John Garnaut in Beijing.]
They have campaigned against a seemingly invincible opponent for decades and their ailing leader, the Dalai Lama, has become disillusioned. But Tibetans in exile won't give up.
About 500 leaders and activists from Tibetan communities around the world met in the Indian hill station town of Dharamsala this week to reinvigorate their struggle against Chinese rule in their homeland.
Emotions at the gathering were raw after riots in Tibet in March were followed by brutal paramilitary reprisals. The Chinese Government says 18 people died at the hands of Tibetans during the uprising but the Tibetan government-in-exile, also based in Dharamsala, says more than 200 Tibetans were killed by Chinese forces.
In the wake of that upheaval, talks restarted between the Dalai Lama's emissaries and the Chinese Government but they have now collapsed. The Dalai Lama subsequently admitted he had "lost hope" that his "middle way" in negotiating with China – featuring a call for limited Tibetan autonomy – could succeed.
A few weeks ago he told reporters in Japan that the situation inside Tibet was getting worse. "This old nation, with ancient culture and heritage, is now dying," he said. "I have to accept failure."
With that admission, the Dalai Lama flung open the door for new ideas at this week's meeting. The 73-year-old monk has been treated in hospital twice since August and last month underwent gall bladder surgery at a New Delhi hospital. He has frequently signalled a desire to step back. In a significant symbolic move, the Dalai Lama has not attended this week's conclave, leaving other leaders to run proceedings. The unprecedented Tibetan gathering, held behind closed doors, concludes today.
It will determine whether the Tibetan movement adopts a more combative, and probably more dangerous, approach with China. Among the 130,000 Tibetans in exile, and the 6 million across the Tibetan plateau, there appears to be a growing number who believe the Dalai Lama's middle way should be replaced with a more robust stance, including a demand for full independence. The mood for change is especially strong among young Tibetans.
In another sign that Tibetan tactics are changing, the Dalai Lama made a rare appeal for India to help resolve the dispute with China on Thursday night. "India and Tibet have the relationship of 'guru and chela' [master and disciple] and when the chela is in trouble, the guru must look after him," he said.
Samdhong Rinpoche, the prime minister of the Tibetan government-in-exile, has pledged that any decision about a new path needs to have "the clear mandate of the people".
Before this week's special meeting, Karma Chophel, speaker of the government-in-exile parliament, said a secret poll taken inside Tibet showed more than 5000 of the 17,000 surveyed wanted Tibetan independence – double the number who were happy to continue with the Dalai Lama's middle way. However, more than half of those surveyed said they would follow any decision he made.
The catalyst for this week's review of strategy by exiles is the stalemate in talks on Tibet's future. Early this month the Dalai Lama's representatives met Chinese officials for the ninth in a series of talks that date back to 2002. The exiled group released a summary of the position they had put to the Chinese. It called for "genuine autonomy" within China and also that:
The Chinese Government holds all the negotiating cards and shows no sign of shifting from its hardline stance.
In this light, Ben Hillman, from the Australian National University, said some of the Tibetan demands appeared "naive" and even "ridiculous" but were probably calculated to appeal to the exiled community. "Many have been exiled for so long that they've lost touch with political reality in China," he said.
Dr Hillman said the Chinese Government had "quite reasonably" challenged the right of exiled Tibetans to represent all Tibetan people when Tibetans are divided by geography, economic opportunity and even language.
But the failures of the Tibetan leadership-in-exile does not mean China's policies in Tibet are working either. "If anything, Beijing's hardline response has helped create a pan-Tibetan solidarity," he said.
Dr B. Tsering, the president of the Tibetan Women's Association and a participant in this week's Dharamsala summit, said the behaviour of the Chinese recently had provided fresh motivation for exiled activists.
"The responses of the Chinese recently have re-energised this movement," she said. "It has made the Tibetan people feel like working harder so that our struggle becomes stronger and more lasting. The Chinese leadership will change – we will not give up hope."
Since 1989 the Chinese Government has poured money into Tibet and imposed a security regime that has been more relaxed than in neighbouring Xinjiang. But it also amplified its nationalistic propaganda and emphasised China's historical victimisation at the hands of foreign aggressors.
This propaganda hardened after the March riots, when the domestic media disseminated photos and footage of ethnic Han Chinese being brutalised at the hands of wild Tibetans, some in monks' clothing, while shutting down news of Chinese oppression. The Chinese Government's hardline position enjoys strong domestic support. But there are dissenting voices. "China is alone in ignoring the global trend away from imperialism – because it believes itself to be a victim of imperialism," said Wang Lixiong, a Beijing author and scholar.
He says the Chinese Communist Party will not give Tibetans a say in their future until it finds a way to provide rights of democratic citizenship to all Chinese. "As long as the one power [the Communist Party] does not change itself, there is no hope for the future."
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