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Pakistan facing fresh political turmoil
The Australian - February 26, 2009
Amanda Hodge, South Asia correspondent – Pakistan has been plunged into a fresh political crisis amid nationwide demonstrations yesterday at the Supreme Court decision barring popular opposition leader Nawaz Sharif and his brother from holding elected office.
President and political rival Asif Ali Zardari on Wednesday suspended the provincial parliament and imposed executive rule in the Sharif brothers' home state of Punjab – Pakistan's most populous state and traditional power centre – in an attempt to contain anticipated large-scale protests by the country's legal community.
But the move failed to suppress widespread anger at the court decision which was criticised in many quarters as politically motivated
The court ruling threatens to further destabilise an already vulnerable civilian administration struggling to maintain control of the country in the face of a rising militant insurgency within its borders and a near-bankrupt economy.
Pakistan's share market plunged 5 percent at the close of trade Wednesday and showed no sign of recovery yesterday.
The unrest is sure to trigger concern in Washington, which needs a stable administration in Pakistan to help combat al-Qa'ida and Taliban militants using its territory as a base from which to launch attacks on coalition troops in Afghanistan.
Many analysts and foreign diplomats are now warning the country faces a calamitous slide back into the sort of political infighting and instability which led to a military takeover by former General Pervez Musharraf in 1999.
"The Sharifs have been effectively thrown out of politics, and they are going to react," prominent political commentator Shafqat Mahmood said, adding that "in the next three to six months, the entire political order will become very shaky."
The long-awaited Supreme Court decision was the result of an appeal against a ruling barring two-time prime minister Sharif from contesting elections over his conviction on charges of hijacking Musharraf's aircraft to try and forestall the coup. It was also considering allegations of irregularities in brother Shahbaz's election to the provincial parliament.
Punjab is controlled by Sharif's PML (N) party and, until Wednesday, Shabhaz was Punjab's chief minister.
Analysts say the government's actions against the Sharifs are aimed at weakening their hold on the influential state of Punjab – a theory bolstered by recent talks aimed at an alliance between Zadari's ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and another Punjab-based opposition party, PML (Q).
Sharif reacted angrily to the decision calling for Pakistanis to "rise against this unconstitutional decision and this nefarious act of Zardari", adding that while he opposed violence – "If the people want to show their anger, who can stop them?"
While the government urged the PML (N) to "control its supporters for the sake of democracy", thousands of protestors yesterday answered the Sharifs' call, staging fiery demonstrations in Lahore.
Sharif also called for people to join a massive lawyers' march planned for early next month to demand the reinstatement of more than 70 judges, sacked by Musharraf in 2007 for alleged misconduct
The move sparked widespread protests which led to Musharraf imposing a state of emergency in late 2007 and, eventually, to his downfall in February 2008 elections.
President Zardari's Pakistan People's Party and Sharif's PML (N) banded together prior to the election to support the lawyers' demands, but tensions have been simmering between the two parties ever since then.
Sharif has accused Zardari of withdrawing his support for the reinstatement of the judges because he fears they would lift a current amnesty against corruption charges.
He also accused Zardari of offering a "business deal" to his brother in exchange for his support for the legitimacy of the Supreme Court.
While the Sharifs command popular support in Punjab the degree of instability in coming weeks will depend on how much support they can muster in Pakistan's three other states. A recent survey conducted by Washington-based International Republican Institute showed 59 per cent of respondents named Nawaz Sharif as their preferred prime minister compared to 19 percent for Mr Zardari.
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