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India on edge as the big wet misses its cue
The Times - July 17, 2009
Rhys Blakely, Delhi – India is looking anxiously to the skies as the worst start to the monsoon in 80 years raises fears of food shortages, power cuts and riots.
In Bhopal, a young couple and their son were beaten and stabbed to death on Wednesday, allegedly after a dispute with their neighbours over water in the drought-stricken city.
In the surrounding state of Madhya Pradesh, water tankers were under police guard as they visited areas where normal drinking supplies have been exhausted for weeks.
"Street brawls are happening as the water supplies are coming in. It's hot, tempers are short, people are thirsty and frustrated," said Indira Khurana, of WaterAid India.
The monsoon's prolonged tropical downpours, which account for 80 per cent of India's annual rainfall, should have started early last month but have only just begun.
The delayed onset of the rainy season has pushed back the planting of staples such as rice and grain after a scorching June, in which temperatures in the northwest hovered 6-7C above historical averages, and vegetable crops and paddy nurseries withered.
While food prices have risen, the stockmarket in Mumbai has plummeted. Last week it suffered its worst falls since October on fears that a failed monsoon could ruin the livelihood of millions of poor consumers.
Economists now fear that the vagaries of the weather could wreck a national economy that has endured the global credit crisis relatively unscathed.
State governments in the central region of Jharkhand and the northeastern region of Manipur have declared droughts – a highly unusual step so early in the growing season. Assam, also in the northeast, which produces tea and rice, said 14 of its 28 districts were suffering drought.
In Punjab, the northern region known as the breadbasket of India, rainfall has been less than half the historical average. Across the country as a whole it is about 30 per cent below normal.
Signalling its concern, the government this week banned wheat exports because of concerns that a poor harvest will lead to shortages and price increases.
The looming crisis has emphasised just how dependent India remains on the monsoon – even to keep the lights on. The country relies on hydroelectric generation for about a quarter of its power output. With electricity being diverted to irrigate crops, vast areas face blackouts.
Meanwhile, most of the 800million Indians who rely on agriculture for their living are hanging on the weatherman's every word.
Here, at least, the latest news is comforting, with the heavy rains that have descended on much of the country in the past few days forecast to continue.
Indians pray that now the rains have started they will continue.
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