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Charisma and stability were Gusmao's hallmarks. He won't allow his departure to ruin that
The Guardian (Australia) - February 7, 2015
Yet East Timor is likely to remain stable in an immediate post-Gusmao environment, rather than return to the chaos of 2006-07. And it will probably retain its democratic hue, if in a modified form.
Gusmao has been the towering figure in East Timorese politics since assuming leadership of resistance to Indonesian occupation in 1981. After his capture in 1992, Gusmao led the resistance from prison in Jakarta, becoming a cult-like figure within East Timor and beyond.
His misinterpretation of what was to become East Timor's constitution saw him become a non-executive president in 2002. Prime minister Mari Alkatiri's mishandling of a fragile domestic environment led to open violence in 2006, which saw Gusmao reassert his political authority, forcing Alkatiri to resign.
A Gusmao-led coalition won the 2008 elections, and he became prime minister. He was re-elected in 2012. In both the 2008 and 2012 elections, Gusmao's anointed candidate – first Jose Ramos-Horta and then Taur Matan Ruak – were elected as president. His authority seemed all but unassailable.
However, even after the 2008 elections, there was a view that the "generation of 75" political leaders should start to make way for the "young generation". Over the past couple of years, Gusmao has increasingly looked to them for successors.
Since 2008, Gusmao has been both the key stabiliser of East Timorese politics and a centralising force in political decision-making. He has attracted criticism for personalising power, yet East Timor's ministers have often been inept and, without central decision making, little would have been achieved. As it is, East Timor's development record is mixed, improving off a low human base but with major projects running over time and over budget.
There has also been extensive criticism of blossoming official corruption under Gusmao's prime ministership. This has been directed primarily at the awarding of government contracts to family members of cabinet ministers.
The long expected cabinet shake-up currently underway is expected to remove a number of ministers under investigation for corruption, as well as reduce the size of cabinet from 53 – an unwieldy number, arguably bloated.
The first likely outcome of this cabinet shake-up is that, after having been cast into the political wilderness in 2008, senior members of leftist political party Fretilin will likely be included in a new "government of national unity". The most likely successor to Gusmao as prime minister is the popular former Fretilin deputy-prime minister and health minister Rui Araujo.
Although aged 50, Araujo is seen as one of the "young generation" of political leaders. He is popular with most East Timorese, is regarded as having considerable personal capacity, and is seen as a potential consensus prime minister. His appointment would then go a long way to ensuring the country's continued stability.
Gusamo has said that he will remain in the political background, possibly as senior minister, to ensure that the succession goes smoothly. If there is a serious threat of the country returning to chaos he, and president Taur Matan Ruak, would be prepared to step back in.
A unity government is likely to satisfy most major political actors, but it is also likely to leave East Timor without a viable opposition. There is, however, a view among many East Timorese that opposition breeds conflict and that consensus fits better with traditional decision-making.
The experience of political fronts – or dominant parties without viable opposition elsewhere – is that they tend towards a lack of accountability, corruption and sometimes intolerance of dissent. This may be an issue that East Timor could face if it retains a "government of national unity" into the longer term.
For now, Gusmao has shown that charismatic, dominant leaders can choose the timing of their political departure, and can better manage the transition from a position of continuing authority rather than its sudden loss.
East Timor is still finding its way along a difficult post-independence path. It is a period in which many other countries stumble or fall. Gusmao choosing his own timing to step down is likely to smooth the transition process. But the many problems of this young and still fragile nation will remain to confront his successor.
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