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White House urged to boost troop numbers
The Guardian - November 14, 2009
Ewen MacAskill, Washington – A key adviser to NATO forces has warned that the US risks a debacle in Afghanistan if President Barack Obama fails to deploy enough extra troops.
David Kilcullen, a former Australian army officer and authority on counter-insurgency, said Mr Obama's slowness to reach a decision on extra troops had been "messy". He said it not only worried US allies but created uncertainty the Taliban could exploit.
Speaking in an interview, Dr Kilcullen, an adviser to the British Government as well as the US State Department, compared the President to someone "pontificating" on whether to send enough firefighters into a burning building.
Mr Obama has left Washington for a nine-day trip to Asia without announcing a decision on troop numbers.
The options have been narrowed to four: sending 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 or 40,000, the latter the figure requested by the NATO commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal. These would be on top of 68,000 US troops already deployed.
The warning coincided with a contrary message from General Abdul Rashid Dostum, the controversial former warlord, who warned Washington that sending more US troops to Afghanistan would hamper its war against the Taliban insurgency. Only an Afghan-led solution can bring victory, he believes.
His comments in an interview with The Daily Telegraph were made as the US ambassador to Kabul, Karl Eikenberry, urged Mr Obama not to send thousands more US soldiers to shore up Afghan President Hamid Karzai's regime.
General Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek, was a central military leader in the Northern Alliance that drove the Taliban from Kabul in 2001 with support from US special forces.
He believes success then was based on Afghan-led troops fighting for the future of their own families. Today, he said, the number of senior Afghan military casualties was negligible because US and NATO commanders were calling the shots.
"The Afghan military failure is a question of commitment and morale: the more foreign money and troops the less Afghans see this war as theirs," he said.
"In the past six years, I have not heard of one Afghan officer of captain or major rank killed in battle. During this same period hundreds of Americans and other NATO soldiers have been killed."
General Dostum said the Afghan military leadership had become far too dependent on following Western forces, putting US and NATO personnel at greater risk. He remains influential in Afghanistan – his support helped ensure Mr Karzai's re-election this month – despite allegations of human rights abuses.
Western pressure to centralise power in Kabul excluded locals from key appointments and billions of dollars in aid, he said. It enriched the political elite but failed to alleviate poverty while undermining local initiative.
Dr Kilcullen expressed concern that Mr Obama might deny General McChrystal the 40,000 extra troops.
"Time is running out for us to make a decision. We can either put in enough troops to control the environment or we can credibly communicate our intention to leave. Either could work," he said.
"Splitting the difference is not the way to go... the middle ground is a good place on domestic issues, but not on strategy."
Though he is employed by the State Department, Dr Kilcullen – a former adviser to overall US commander David Petraeus – stressed he was speaking in a private capacity. He said it would be irresponsible to send extra troops but not enough to secure Afghanistan.
"As an analogy, you have a building on fire, and it's got a bunch of firemen inside. There are not enough firemen to put it out. You have to send in more or you have to leave. It is not appropriate to stand outside pontificating about not taking lightly the responsibility of sending firemen into harm's way."
Dr Kilcullen argues there is a need for Mr Obama to exert leverage by issuing a credible threat to pull out all US troops unless Mr Karzai cleans up corruption.
"Our way out is to go to Karzai and say 'We are done here'. We will be leaving in two to five years. If you do not want to be left hanging from a lamppost like Najibullah [the former Afghan president hanged in Kabul in 1996, when the Taliban took control], this is what you need to do. "I think that would work," he said.
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